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Economic Cycles

POLKADOT, TIME TO LEAVE THE HELLAltcoin Time: Polkadot Bullish Swing Trading Polkadot is showing several bullish signals: PML being disrespected PWL being disrespected PWH being disrespected PDL being disrespected PDH being disrespected Daily Bullish FVG being respected 4H Bullish FVG being respected 4H Swing Low being disrespected Bearish Argument: 4H Swing High is being respected Altseason seems to be brewing, but as day or swing traders, we must remain cautious about short-term movements. Ignore the noise on social media and rely on your analysis and experience. Risk management is everything. If you risk more than you can afford to lose, you’ll end up emotionally drained. Protect your mindset by applying proper risk management techniques. Risk-to-Reward (RR): 5.2
Long
by Jaytradermb
Altseason Starts SoonThe Chart above show Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) over time, with highlighted patterns and cycles that may be tied to Bitcoin halvings and market trends. Here’s my analysis based on the chart's structure: Key Observations: Repeated Patterns: The chart highlights similar phases of Bitcoin dominance decline across three separate cycles, lasting roughly 231 days. Each phase seems to correspond to a bearish period for Bitcoin dominance, where altcoins gain relative strength. Halving Impact: Vertical lines mark Bitcoin halving dates (green lines), which historically have a significant impact on the crypto market. Following halvings, BTC dominance often rises as Bitcoin leads the market in initial rallies. Projection: The chart projects a decline in dominance after the current rally, extending into mid-to-late 2024. A potential drop to ~44%-46% dominance is outlined, indicating a possible altcoin season or broader market rotation. Support and Resistance: The chart highlights a resistance zone around 62% dominance, which Bitcoin dominance seems to have tested recently. A bearish breakout is suggested, aligning with a downward trend in the future. Possible Interpretation: Short-Term View: Bitcoin dominance might continue upward for a while but could face resistance near 60%-62%. If this area holds, a reversal could lead to dominance declining, benefiting altcoins. Medium-Term View: If the projection holds, BTC dominance could see a prolonged decline lasting nearly a year, dropping below 50%. This scenario typically coincides with altcoin seasons where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in relative gains. Risk Factors:Bitcoin dominance does not always drop due to bullish altcoins; it can also decline during a market-wide sell-off where Bitcoin loses less than altcoins. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and adoption rates could alter the outcome.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by YogaID
Long Term Fibonacci Based History & ForecastLOGARITHMIC FIB PATTERNS Based upon previous high and low 2011 $31.91 top (blue fibs): 2.786 extension 2013 $1242 top (yellow fibs): 2.272 extension 2017 $19804 top (green fibs): 2.272 extension 2021 $? top (light blue fibs): 2.272 or 2.786 extension at $207.467 or $269.674 respectively Based upon 2013 $266 high and $65.42 low (magenta fibs) 2013 $1242 top: 2 extension 2017 $19804 top: 4 extension 2021 $? top: 6 extension at $295.620 Based upon 2011 $31.91 high and $1.99 low (yellow fibs) 2013 $1242 top: 2.272 extension 2017 $19804 top: 3.272 extension 2021 $? top: 4.272 extension at $279.809 TIMELINE & CONCLUSION Current velocity compared to prior 2013-2017 period is higher (bar pattern red) than before (bar pattern faint orange) which at current speed could put in the top around June/July 2021. We have already reached the intermediate top around $62.000. In April 2013 this was equivalent to the $177 level (seen on yellow fib) and in August 2017 the $4373 level (seen on green fib). Price targets for this year could be around $207.467 at the low end and $269.674 to $295.620 at the high end.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Slot
1
$btc Weekly Analysis Historically, price between these green lower level consolidation is a low risk buy for long term hodlers. But as you can clearly see, bitcoin is heading for lower and lower volatility until one day the trend breaks. If you scroll right you can see the bull band and bear band come to a point.... what will happen then God only knows. If lower band breaks and we retouch the previous resistance at 7k, obviously my statement is void because my trend lines are broke. Also the whole c0vid-crash is so weird to me, was it a red herring, does the support price achieved (around) 3/18/20 still hold value even though it could be a 'red herring'? I say absolutely it matters and we should incorporate that support price in our charting and calculations. DISCLAIMER======= ' [ ] My Log regression is not calculated with anything but the curve tool, please take it with a grain of salt, if i have any algebra friends with knowledge of logarithmic regression please feel free to reach out as your input would be greatly appreciated.
BNC:BLX
by creengrack
CYCLE 4 | SMA Golden Ratio [UPDATE]For those following along with this indicator, the current price action volatility has accelerated price to some interesting historic points. As discussed in prior post above, historically BTC has followed a trend of dropping to the lower SMA extension coloured line with each cycle with interesting multiple hits in establishing our 2021 technical cycle top. We have already tagged the gold line and currently approaching the 'Gray Line' which put in our prior cycles ATH. Will be interesting to see how BTC (buyers / sellers) handles this price level and the information this may provide on how useful this indicator may be this cycle....
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
Bottom to Bottom Circles : BTC Market Cycles Predictive Chart BITCOIN Market Cycles: Predictive Chart This chart showcases a unique visualization of the BITCOIN market's price evolution, incorporating hand-drawn circles that perfectly align with Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles. These circles act as pivotal zones, clearly indicating optimal moments to buy and sell. Each circle represents an insurmountable boundary: as the price approaches the edge, it repeatedly collapses, marking key turning points in the market. This visual tool provides powerful insights for navigating the BITCOIN and altcoin space with precision.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TsuGoi
Buy Signal BTC 1HMEXC:BTCUSDT Due to the recent significant growth of Bitcoin and the CPI we have today, It is a little bit high risk trade, But still worth entering. Explanation of Buy Signal: The IDN has been grabbed and before hit the high (ATH), got back and hit the MPL & SCOB zone, So in this cases we enter with confident because we know about its Win Rate. ;) Remember to always exit partially, And "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." I will update Bitcoin and Gold regularly, Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Long
by x-Aurio
CYCLE4 | Halving Cycle MapperQuick post to demonstrate indicator looking at DCA positions to enter into the bear market and out of the bull market zones. Below 'Cheat Sheet' summary developed based on prior cycle mapping posts and historic reviews of Cycle 1 to 3 for BTC. Brief structure * Bull Market Start: 40W post Halving * Bull Market End: 80W post Halving * Bear Market (Start DCA Positions): 135W post Halving DCA Entres (including 135W from halving) = x5 @ 12 weekly intervals
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
1
What do DJI, SPX and NDX have in common?Well the obvious answer is that they are Major USA indices and they also share some of the big players as stocks which make up their composite Indices. My answer the Question... The beauty of Trading View is the ability to combine all sorts of aspects of trading information together,  whether it be writing new scripts, combining indicators or in my case combing major indices together in Logarithmic view to get a new way of future price discovery (for SPX & NDX) by looking backwards or left at price structure on the next highest valued Indice. As we know A.T.M all 3 Indices are at A.T.H's so at some point in the near future there will be a move higher into new price territory. The question then is where is the price target? Where is the next resistance level when there is no price structure to the left on that Indice? What I noticed historically about these Indices is that past price structure (major highs and lows) from the higher valued Indice (Mostly DJI) is horizontally plotted forward into the future onto the lesser valued Indice. Like looking left historically at an instrument with a lot of data for support and resistance levels. Obviously with DJI being the highest dollar value Indice and it also moving higher past its all time high at some point into unknown price territory, we will have to rely on its own price structure for support levels or Fibonacci levels for clues about were price will find resistance levels in the future. On SPX and NDX though we have a different story. As these 2 Indices move higher into unknown price territory with no price structure of their own to the left looking back, we can use the past price structure of the higher dollar valued Indice (DJI) market highs and lows to assess future levels of resistance or to find future price targets. With SPX we will be able to use NDX and also DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance. With NDX we will be able to use DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance. Some examples, If you pull up these 3 indices on a line chart yourself you will find that with NDX and SPX the support levels for the Dotcom and GFC crash's were DJI's historical price structure levels from 1961-1981. $731-$965. If you look at SPX the present high and previous equal high on 01/2022 you will find it is mirrored in price structure on NDX 2015-2016 period and that the 2000 Dotcom peak is acting as a support level $4380 for present SPX price structure. NDX 01/2022 If you go way back in time to the 1930's Great depression market crash you will find the Aug 1929 SPX high $32.50 was in fact a resistance level which became support level for DJI back in 1898 and 1903 respectively. The major past Cycle Highs on the higher valued Indice prior to recession tend to be the resistance levels for for future highs on the lower valued Indices. Or resistance levels that were broken and became support on DJI became resistance dollar value levels for SPX and NDX. It is obvious that vertically this 3 indices would show similar reactions to market shocks but I'm not quite sure why horizontally there are so many matching price support and resistance levels. This is a Monthly Chart over a 130 year period so the levels are harder to see and not precisely dollar accurate but if you use a weekly or daily chart you will see the levels line up very well. So, obviously in my head I'm wondering what the heck is happening here exactly? Some of these older levels have played out over 50-60 years into the future on DJI to the SPX and NDX, more recently the time frame is reducing to around 10-20 years. Fibonacci levels also work on this chart going from lowest value Indice at a recession low to next business cycle high on highest value Indice. Maybe W.D Gann could explain this accurately for me....Like is there some sort of Fractal playing out here or do the Wall street crew already use this method or is it the madness of the crowd echoing forward through time unwittingly expressing human emotion into charts of financial greed and fear? Who knows? I'd like to hear Traders ideas about this phenomena.
TVC:DJI
by Neilsh
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & Overlay - DETAILEDThis post is intended to be used with an earlier interactive companion post, crated to observe BTC's interactions in prior cycles so we can take learnings into cycle 4 with respect to BTC's under and over extensions of the calculated Realised Price. A quick refresher - What is Realized Price? Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com "Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price." The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies. Historic Observations As per the above prior post, we see BTC enters a cycle topping and bottom phase when BTC's 'Realised Price' enters the top red and bottom green over extended regions of the normalised Oscillator and the Red and Blue Extension lines of the Overlay indicators. We see historically the Oscillator shows the region where price moves with high volatility and other indicators that rely on divergence can extended much further than in other periods in the cycle before a true change in trend is achieved. In 2021 Overlay indicator (RED Line) was breached many times before we put in a significant trend change and the ultimate cycle top was realised at the second peak interestingly at the lower 'Purple' extension line November of that year. CYCLE 4 Update Where are we now according to the Realised Price Overlay and Oscillator indicators... Based on historic review of BTC relationship suggests we are about to enter the parabolic region of this cycles (Oscillator is about to enter into the 'RED' zone and Overlay indicator has breached the Purple line and is between the Red and Purple line). Interestingly this relationship aligns with our cycle mapping posts, looking at BTC historic behavior since cycle bottoms and tops and BTC price targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & OverlayThis post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis. I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values. What is Realized Price? Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com "Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price." The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies. I will follow this post with a zoomed version for detailed discussion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie