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Economic Cycles

NAS100 Daily outlook | Bias BullishI was looking for Nas100 characteristics around elections on a daily timeframe. I found some similarities: 2016 Market Top (4906) was 34 bars before the E-day, it never came back to the same levels. 2020 Market Top (12467, 2.54x) was 44 bars before the E-day, it broke down these levels in Jun-Dec 2022. 2024 Market Top (20758, 1.665x) was 83 bars before the E-day. Last Friday before the election seems important in both (16/20) cases as it became a major support for the next cycle. IMO, Friday would be bearish but S1(19600), and S2(19290) seem like important levels for the uptrend to sustain, Friday should not go beyond S1. With a bullish Bias, I would wait for Friday to close and then like to do either of the following: Instant order on green candle close with stoploss on S2 Buy Stop on the market top break with SL under S1 Would love to know what you think.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by hunainbinsajid
1
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges. Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength. For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end. Technical Overview of USD/JPY: Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area. At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level. A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move. Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at: - Slightly under 150, - Followed by further support at 147, - And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
2025 BTC.D - History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often RhymesJust thinking through this idea in regards to BTC.D In the last cycle BTC.D ramped up to consistently being above 60%, after its June 2020 lows, in the 4th week of October 2020. It ran up to 100% by the end of 2020 and then proceeded to roll over and fall back below 60% by the 3rd week of January 2021. Altseason started at the beginning of February 2021 with ETH & large cap projects. I'd like to think that Altseason officially ended by the end of May 2021 with a wild frenzy into memes (Doge, Shiba, Akita) setting new ATHs. If we're applying that same logic to this cycle then... BTC.D. will begin its ascent towards 100% dominance by passing 60% by the end of October 2024 (as of today, it's October 30th) and then start to roll over the 2nd-ish to 3rd-ish week of January 2025, to start the New Year! From there we can estimate that Altseason will start sometime around the 1st-ish week to 2nd-ish week of February 2025. It will last until, I'm thinking, the end of April 2025 to middle-ish of May 2025 (at the latest). Additional Thoughts: We may get a blowoff top scenario by end of September 2025 / October 2025... but that's TBD. I'm not sure a double peak is guaranteed or in the cards this cycle. So, it may be wise to leave something in your bag headed into the end of year (Q3 / Q4), just so you can say mama we made it. IDK - just thoughts and not financial advice. Resource & Thoughts Consider the Path to Altseason by Secrets of Crypto Would definitely have to consider macro, m2 & m3 and the US presidential election
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by jamiroquaicrypto
POLKADOT COMPRESSION ABOUT TO EXPLODEHey traders! It's been a while since my last post in here. Despite that, I've been trading and charting like I always did. Anyways, this is why I think CRYPTOCAP:DOT is pumping on the next months: - As the rest of #alts , Polkadot has been on a compression structure since the manipulation on August. In my opinion, we are talking about a accumulation that will lead the price to reach the local ATH (11.00 - 12.00 USD) - Context is great. #Trump seems to be the winner of US elections next week. Don't take me wrong, I'm not a fan of #DOT and I think its time passed by. However, I don't think its crazy to see the #token dancing around 20.00 - 30.00 USD on the upcoming months.
COINBASE:DOTUSDLong
by Ometrading
6
$TOTAL Market Cap 259 Day BREAKOUT!At last, the Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap has a BREAKOUT from the 259 Day trend! This was the lagging chart I was watching to confirm the next leg up in the bull market. The 20DMA has also crossed the 200DMA for the first time in 12 months. This is a SUPER bullish signal, as you can see what occurred last time in October 2023. With less than 1 week away until Donald Trump is declared President of the United States, and the FOMC announcing another round of rate cuts the following day, we can expect a lot of volatility in the market. The 20DMA should act as a good support on the way up. The final signal will be when the Fed announces they will stop selling securities from their balance sheet. This will signal a new round of quantitative easing, and complete risk-on. Tick-tock MFers. Position accordingly!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by jonnieking
4
Bull Market Begins NowFor several years now, I've been tracking variations of this chart, and Bitcoin's adherence to its four-year cycle remains striking. Every bear market, people speculate that the cycle has been “broken,” yet Bitcoin consistently follows its historical trajectory, nearly to the day. This pattern isn’t directly impacted by external events but is subtly shaped by the U.S. macroeconomic landscape, which can either dampen or amplify its moves. From each halving, we typically see about 154 days of consolidation before Bitcoin breaks the all-time high of the previous cycle. Technically, we did breach the previous high briefly due to ETF-driven news, though it was just a wick. Now, we’ve just tapped that previous all-time high again, but it’s possible we’ll need to cool off and consolidate until the election before we see another major move. During this time, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) tends to rise for another month, after which we often witness a significant rotation into altcoins as “old money” seeks higher volatility. With the upcoming election and the possibility of a Trump victory, there’s likely to be renewed enthusiasm and optimism for crypto markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by proestever
ATH from Historic Average PerspectiveHISTORIC AVERAGING The point of historic averaging is to provide a long-term perspective on an asset’s price by calculating an average that considers all available historical data. The simplest is Arithmetic All-Time Average PineScript: ta.cum(close) / (bar_index + 1) To get it we must add up all closing prices and divide by number of bars. (Bar_index + 1 because bar_index starts with 0, which can mess up calculation!) It provides us with some useful information: Long-Term Trend Identification Current Price Contextualization - point of reference to assess how high is the current price than its historical Average Exposes Long-Term Support levels - the historic average often aligns with significant support (True for Bitcoin particularly) Since Arithmetic Averaging is more venerable to lagging, it made a significant gap from the lows: If the weights weren't identical, the gap distance would have been less. So we can use other method of averaging for more precise alignments of the cycle Lows Weighted Historic Average: This method assigns increasing weights to each bar over time, prioritizing later candles even more significantly. This method is particularly useful when you want to view the trend as influenced by more recent activity but still considering the entire data set. It may help in understanding price dynamics under growing market volume or volatility, as recent bars affect the average more prominently. With such weighting method applied, the historic average better indicates long-term support levels making them more reliable to draw a relationship between current price and the Historic Average. This post is not even about the rhyme of Weighted Historical Average with cycle lows. If we divide closing price by WHA, we would get an idea how many times Bitcoin has been higher than the average during the times establishing All Time High. Given the current uptrend, which shows potential to develop into a full-scale bull run, we can anticipate the next long-term ATH by monitoring the Close/Historic Average. As this metric rises and breaks above shaded levels, it signals continued momentum. Conversely, if it crosses below the first shaded range, this may indicate that a long-term ATH has been set, suggesting the market could be primed for the next significant correction phase.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
$GME about to blowThe last time the MA200 ascended from a golden cross was in September 2020 and it is currently ascending from a golden cross that started in May 2024. Looking at the first volume spikes starting in September 2020, if we are repeating now and the shorts haven't closed we should see about 4 times the volume now because of the split. Looking at the volume in May, it seems about right. Not advice, only my opinion, you must do your own DD and what is best for you. You only live once.
NYSE:GMELong
by vanzylik
Bitcoin Buy Signal (1H)MEXC:BTCUSDT As we knew before that when IDMs got grabbed, after getting a SCOB on our structure time frame, or wait for a ChoCh on the lower time frame (which now the LTF is 5 mins chart), we can get into the position (which here is a Buy Position). And now we had a ChoCh on the 5 mins time frame on Bitcoin which allows us to open a Buy Position. P.S: Money & Risk Management is Crucial, Because nothing's certain in the market. :) I will update Bitcoin regularly, Follow me on TradingView for more. Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio
Long
by x-Aurio
Bitcoin 1H Buy Position SignalMEXC:BTCUSDT As soon as the IDM.i has been grabbed, we waited for the SCOB to form. And a few hours ago the SCOB has been formed and it allowed us to enter the Buy Position. The target is reward 2 and 3 at least. But always remember: Trading is a long-term game which is survival depends on the Risk & Money Management we planned before. "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." I will update Bitcoin regularly. Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC
Long
by x-Aurio
Buy Position on GBPusd (Reward 6.5)OANDA:GBPUSD In order to the EX zone in 4H time frame, We go to 15m time frame to enter the buy position more efficiently. Note: In EX zones, we can enter the position without any confirmation, but we always get better win rate by waiting for a confirmation signals to form. The confirmation signals in my strategy (Tactical Smart Money) are two kind: 1. SCOB (single candle order block) 2. ChoCh in lower time frame As always: Make sure you have a good partial exit plan, AND "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Long
by x-Aurio
Buy Position (REWARD 9) opportunity on GOLD 1HOANDA:XAUUSD As you can see Gold is on a important level on weekly time frame. Which could hit the last ATH and then rest for a few weeks/months. So that now we can take a Buy Position on 1H time frame to the new ATH (Minor Extreme mentioned as EX.i). Its Reward to Risk is about 9 to 1, But it's better to save some profits after Reward 2-3 and higher. In other words, the more rewards we get, the less position size we should have. Make Sure You Have a Good Partial Exit Plan. "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." I will update Bitcoin regularly. Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by x-Aurio
Buy Position on BTCusdt 1HMEXC:BTCUSDT Why should we buy here? Simply because this MPL is our last POI we have on Major Structure in 1H time frame. As you can see Also we can open 2 position at the same time and price, but manage them differently. In other words we can set partial exit at 2.5 reward & 7 reward. It is better to have 2 targets, not more and not less.. "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." I will update Bitcoin and Gold regularly, Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Long
by x-Aurio
Following lines interpretation of the patterns Good evening sirs , today we will be doing analysis of candlesticks with pivot points and cycles. Please be sitting in your seats to receive it well better! for further instructions see attached notes see attached notes for further instructions see included instructions for notes to further instructions see further instructions for attached notes regarding further instructions on how to see attached notes (that may or may not contain) further instructions.
by Tech-Temptress
Weekly Forecast: A High Volume Week Ahead!Common themes across the board with daily rallies that need to exhaust sooner or later and price approaching (if not already in) weekly EPD levels which overlap with Order Blocks or Fair Value Gaps. With an abundance of opportunity in the market, be careful not to marry your bias by maintaining a neutral perspective on all pairs. My Bias for the week is as follows: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT AUDUSD - SHORT GBPJPY - LONG USDJPY - LONG
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Alarm for falling?In this post, I want to look at Sol from the upper time frame and in the next post we will go to the lower time frame😎 Cycles: Let's start with cycles. In HWC (our big trend), the trend is upward In MWC, the upward trend is weak LWC is falling. So, we can take more risk to climb, because it is the same direction with HWC and a little bit MWC, because the trend is weak, and for short position, we have to save profit quickly or put a big stop loss.🤔 Support and resistance: Above the resistance of 175.67 we can continue the uptrend and below the support of 162.57 is a bit risky, for less than that we can consider 159 as support. It depends on your personality which one you choose, we can have a fall📉 Our general view of the chart was this. In the next post, we will go to a smaller time frame and a more detailed view🫡
by parsa_xa