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Economic Cycles

Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level. Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern. Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern. Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action. The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading. See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern. This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions. High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation. The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
NYSE:RAMPEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
POLKADOT- BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHERIn the midst of chaos, I've decided to increase my position in Polkadot, as I've been holding since $5.82. The structure continues to show bullish signals, and we’re still in a bull market. Moreover, the Christmas and New Year rally hasn’t even started yet. For traders feeling anxious right now, it's better to step away from the screen and avoid making impulsive decisions. For those focused on knowledge and strategy, there’s no better moment to consider opening a long position—fully aware of the possibility that your stop-loss might be hit. Trade Management: Entry: $7 or market price Stop-loss: $6.31 (keeping the previous position intact) Remember to control your emotions and avoid overtrading. Maintaining liquidity is crucial—don’t put all your capital at risk. Protect your psychology and trust your skills. Don’t let the market shake your confidence in what you know works. I’m sticking to my plan, as mentioned in my previous idea. Nothing changes if you follow your plan. May God bless you all. Jay
Long
by Jaytradermb
Spot Long on MyroWhile alts and Solana memes have been taking a beating, there's still great opportunity to trade these. I find sticking with spot is the safest and if you look at something like Myro, which essentially moves in tandem with WIF, it's a relatively easy trade at moments like this when it's been bouncing at support. I've re-entered at .083 and intend to hold this until around .24 as long as Myro can move above the avwap at .16 - also depending on how things are looking there is potential to return to its ATH, but I think any massive movements in the market will come when FTX repayments of 13 billion usd hit in 60 days, another reason why now is a fantastic entry point for spot. FOMC meeting on rate cute is today at 14:00 EST and markets as expected took a dip yesterday and should rally at the news of another cut of .25 - this is where I expect Myro to follow the market up and begin testing key resistance points I've charted. Of course this time frame could take longer but I expect by end of January Myro to be back around .20
Long
by SpotLongTurtle
1
TESLA: Fractal Metrics Fractal Cyclicality Cycle I The chart displays fractal cyclicality leading up to a major breakout. It emphasizes the progression of swing percentages and cyclic patterns, potentially identifying the foundational structure for a larger trend. The use of layered channels adds depth to the analysis, showing both minor and major fractal levels. Cycle II The upward and downward swings in this cycle demonstrate increased volatility and amplitude compared to the initial cycle. This suggests a stronger market reaction and more pronounced trends within the fractal structure. The price action aligns closely with the channel boundaries, indicating the preservation of the fractal framework while showcasing expansion within the structure. The swings are visually more aggressive, with higher peaks and deeper corrections, highlighting the market's larger movements leading up to the breakout. The cyclical patterns and overlapping fractal waves are more intricate, suggesting a maturing market phase with more participants and liquidity. Cycle III All three cycles exhibit a fractal nature with nested waves, maintaining consistency in cyclic progression through identifiable peaks and troughs. The price movement continues to respect the broader channel boundaries, reinforcing the fractal geometry's framework. Similar to the first two cycles, the third cycle shows distinct swings with well-defined percentage movements, suggesting a rhythmic market behavior. Like the earlier cycles, the third cycle builds on the previous fractal structure, with larger amplitudes and deeper corrections, indicating scaling behavior. Phi remain prominent and rooted across all cycles, suggesting persistent harmonic proportions. Evolutionary Growth in the Third Cycle The swings in the third cycle appear to be significantly larger than those in the first two, reflecting an increase in market volatility and participation. The third cycle seems to be emerging over a more extended period, indicating maturation in the fractal evolution. The deeper corrections, such as the -75.44% retracement, highlight stronger mean reversion tendencies before significant expansions.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract
BTC Market Cycle: Is Distribution Signaling a Coming Correction?BTC Market Cycle: Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution 🚀 Timeframe: Weekly Analysis📉 BTC/USDT is following a classic Wyckoff Market Cycle, transitioning through three distinct phases 🎯 1️⃣ Accumulation Phase (2018–2020): Smart money accumulated BTC at low prices in a tight range after the previous bear market. Low volatility and bearish sentiment dominated this period. 2️⃣ Manipulation Phase (2022–2023): A choppy sideways market with false breakouts and shakeouts, designed to confuse retail traders and consolidate more BTC into institutional hands. 3️⃣ Distribution Phase (2024–2025): A euphoric uptrend, where institutions are likely offloading positions into the enthusiasm of retail buyers. This phase often marks the cycle peak. Trading Strategy 💡 - For Long-Term Investors : Consider scaling out positions during this distribution phase. Prepare to re-enter during the next accumulation cycle. - For Swing Traders : Look for reversal signals in the distribution zone. A confirmed breakdown could lead to significant retracement toward previous accumulation zones. Risk Management 🚨 - Be cautious of euphoria-driven rallies. - Watch volume and price action for signs of weakness (e.g., declining momentum, sudden sell-offs). Disclaimer⚡ This is not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management. 🔄Hope this analysis finds you well! BTC/USDT is showcasing a textbook Wyckoff Market Cycle with clear phases of Accumulation, Manipulation, and now Distribution. Are we nearing the peak, or could this rally surprise us further? Let me know your thoughts! 🔍
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
NU Holdings OutlookNU price has left the high volatility range and dropped by over 11% today. The chart suggests that the first Elliott Wave A-B-C correction structure might be near completion with this five-wave downward move. Prices are reaching quite attractive levels again, prompting me to consider re-establishing a position, as the first clear correction pattern appears to be finishied soon. There's a possibility that the entire correction could be complete. However, my main scenario anticipates that the chart will develop into a more complex correction pattern over the next few months, not finishing with this simple A-B-C structure. There's still a chance that if the correction lasts longer, these prices could represent the lowest we'll see. My primary target remains the 50% Fibonacci level at $9.25.
NYSE:NU
by PF_Analysis
Marking the end of Bull rallyCouple months ago, I published my US30 Elliott Wave analysis stating the start of upward move which we saw in the past months. Today, I am publishing the Elliott Wave breakdown of the upward move we have seen in past months which was anticipated in previous idea. Coming to the point, it seems the rally is about to end and the correction is about to start. I am anticipating this correction to be somewhat big according to my Weekly wave count shown in previous chart, but lets see how things go.
EIGHTCAP:US30Short
by syedhamza2135
1
My McClellan Oscillator Graph - Up or Down in the Markets?This is a huge factor to watch, something to consider, Santa Claus Rally expected, or not? I have had many financial analysts for decades always point out this chart when the markets seem toppy or indecisive. The Dow has closed 9 days in a row, first time since the 70s, that's quite interesting, let's watch to see if the theory behind this indicator proves we are in for a rally as I expect. The markets always tend to go higher more than one might think.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Trance-Man
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
PSX : AVNTo predict the potential length of the third downtrend for Avanceon Ltd. (AVN), we can analyze the previous two downtrends and look for a pattern. Here’s a breakdown: -First downtrend lasted 46 bars (69 days) -Second downtrend lasted 48 bars (73 days) Both downtrends are similar in length, with a slight increase between the first and second. If we follow this pattern of slight growth in downtrend duration, we can estimate based on historical patterns, it’s reasonable to predict that the third downtrend could last approximately 74 to 78 days.
PSX:AVNLong
by ZaiwajTrader
1
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jpkxyz
Ethereum towards new ATH?After testing the resistance above 4,000, the flash crash in Alts impacted ETH/USD as well, resulting in a sharp drop to 3,500. However, the strong support established at this level held firm, preventing further declines. Now, the price is approaching the resistance zone once again. At this point, it seems the bulls are gaining momentum, making a breakout above the resistance highly likely. If this breakout materializes, the price could accelerate significantly, with 5,000 emerging as the next logical target.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
XAUUSD Testing The Idea That Trend Keeps TrendingPreviously when I am doing the DCA thing, I would long when price is at support, and when price breaks through support, I would continue to DCA. However, now I have a new idea since last week, that is to trade in the direction of the current wave's trend while taking into account the overall trend and market condition. Now, even though I believe that a finite resource such as gold (at least on earth), would increase in price in the long run, but it has it's own cycles of ups and downs in the short run, and in this current cycle, I believe it is going to go downwards. Even though price is obviously at a minor Support area currently, but I am going to short XAUUSD because the trend is down, now. Unless if price really pushes itself upwards, and trends upwards, otherwise I have zero reason to be buying right now. Alrighty now, I am not buying now. I am just testing this idea out and journalling it here for all to see if anyone is interested. We shall see how it goes. TLDR : Price trends in one direction, buy in that direction. If price reverses in the opposite direction completely, we would close the current positions and open new positions in the new direction. 1439SGT 16122024
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
BTC dell 120.000$📊 BTCUSDT Analysis: Current Price: $102,859.06 Sell Zone: Near $120,000.00 (🟢 Major resistance) Support Zone: $77,777.00 (🛡️ Key level for potential rebound) 🚨 Signal: Bearish Scenario: If BTC reaches $120,000.00, it’s a sell opportunity 📉. Bullish Scenario: In a strong bull trend (📈), you can buy dips around $77,777.00 (🚀 support area). 💡 Strategy: Take profits near $120,000.00 🎯 if already holding BTC. Watch for entries at $77,777.00 🔍 if BTC retraces. 📈 Trend: Overall Bullish unless support at $93,175 or $77,777 breaks (🔻). 🔐 Risk Management: Stop-loss for buys: Below $73,316.18 (⚠️ Critical level). Let me know if you need further clarification or tailored strategies!
Long
by ehsancrypto72
GBPUSD bears seems to be in controlIchimoku Analysis 1. Price vs. Cloud (Kumo): The price has sharply broken below the Kumo (cloud), confirming a bearish trend. The Senkou Span A (leading green line) is below Senkou Span B (leading red line), showing sustained bearish momentum. 2. Tenkan-Sen (Red Line) vs. Kijun-Sen (Blue Line): A bearish cross (Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen) occurred earlier, supporting the downward move. 3. Chikou Span (Lagging Green Line): The Chikou Span is below price and cloud, affirming no immediate support in historical price levels. 4. Key Support & Resistance: Resistance: 1.2763 - 1.2786 (cloud top and recent highs). Support: 1.2600 (current psychological level), 1.2550 (minor support), and 1.2500 (major psychological support). Ichimoku Wave Theory The current price move forms a bearish N-Wave: 1. Impulse Up to 1.2786. 2. Correction Down to 1.2650. 3. Continuation Down to the current level (1.2600), with potential for a further leg down. A measured move projects a continuation of approximately 100-120 pips below 1.2600, aligning with 1.2500. Ichimoku Time Theory Time cycles (9, 17, and 26 periods) help predict the timing of price targets: 1. Breakout Timing: The breakout below the cloud occurred after 17 periods of consolidation. 2. Time to Targets: TP1 (1.2550): Likely within 9 periods (36 hours) from the breakout point. TP2 (1.2500): Likely within 17 periods (68 hours) from the breakout. Each period represents 4 hours (4H chart). Trade Setup 1. Entry: Sell on a confirmed break below 1.2600. Alternatively, enter on a retest of 1.2650 (Kijun-Sen level). 2. Stop-Loss: Above the Kumo at 1.2763 to protect against reversal. 3. Take-Profit Targets: TP1: 1.2550 (minor support) – expected within 36 hours (1.5 days). TP2: 1.2500 (psychological level and measured move target) – expected within 68 hours (3 days). 4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Entry: 1.2600 SL: 1.2763 (163 pips) TP1: 1.2550 (50 pips) TP2: 1.2500 (100 pips) Conclusion The bearish structure, confirmed by Ichimoku Cloud, Wave Theory, and Time Theory, favors further downside. Expect TP1 (1.2550) in approximately 1.5 days and TP2 (1.2500) in 3 days. Monitor for a retest of 1.2650 or a clear break of 1.2600 before entering short positions. This setup aligns with Ichimoku's principles of combining price, time, and wave analysis for a comprehensive trade strategy.
Short
by Welburg_Trading