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Economic Cycles

The Dollar Is Running - So Stop Trying To Call The Top or BottomThe Dollar has had an impressive run over October & now half of November with consistent bullish weekly closes. It's in these times as traders, that we project our opinion onto the market and start saying things like "The market has to pullback or reverse from here" where in reality, the market's going to do whatever it want to. There is no indication as yet from structure across the board that trends are shifting so continue to ride the wave if it aligns with your strategy. Identify key areas on the weekly and monthly because that is likely where we're gravitating towards. Tomorrow I see continued upside on USDJPY, which I'm currently long on, which would tie in nicely with the run higher on GBPJPY to sweep TBL and mitigate the bearish order block before a sell off lower.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
2
What's next for PEPE?It looks as though there is a fractal forming with PEPE that can take it onto significant higher highs. If wave 5 completes, we'll see the same fractal playing out from the two boxes. The Hurst cycles at the bottom also infer that this upward surge can happen quite quickly given there's not a huge amount of time left before the end of the cycle, validation the 5 waves. No matter how good PEPE looks, I'm not going near it. But, it's up to you as they say. Follow for more.
Long
by cryptechcapital
4
Bitcoin diminishing return?Bitcoin is famous with its cycles, halving and huge returns. Since 2012 price has gone up from 2$ to 90,000$. Each cycle starts with halving and then price goes up by hundreds or thousands percent and then come back down. Since 2012, we have completed three cycles and we are in the fourth one. In the first cycle, the lowest price was 2$ and then jumped to 1160$, this was a 52,287% increase! The next cycle from bottom to top we had 12,511% increase. The third cycle had 1,921% increase. The pattern seems clear. Each time the return is diminishing by 4 to 6 times: 52287 divided by 12511 = 4.17 12511 divided by 1921 = 6.5 That means in this cycle the increase from the cycle bottom at 15,500$ should have been between 320% to 480% (this number comes from 1921% divided by 4 and 6). A 320% to 480% increase from 15,500$ is 70,000$ and 95,000$ respectively. Bitcoin is well beyond the first target at 70,000$ and at the moment of writing this, is only 5,000$ short of 95,000$. However, there is a problem with diminishing return theory. To make it more clear let's look at this theory from market top perspective. In the last two cycles, market top to market top, have had 1,900% and 356% return. That means the return diminished by 5.5 times. If the same thing were to happen again it means the current market top should have only been 65% (356 divided by 5.5) of the previous market top. That means the current market top should be 45,000$. Now the same thing will happen to market bottom to top if you believe that market has diminishing return. Based on this theory in the next cycle from market bottom to top there only will be around 80% to 120% increase and the cycle after only 25% to 75% increase from bottom and so on. That means at some point the price will never reaches even back to the previous cycle top. This is very unlikely given that bitcoin will only be more scarce and the global money supply will only increase.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mo_reza_kaz
The Halving's Effect On Bitcoin's PriceThis chart highlights Bitcoin's trend related to the halving, with dates of the three happenings represented by vertical black lines. The trend is based on the 2016 - 2020 cycle. From the date of the halving, I mapped how many days it took for certain events to occur. Green: Halving to Next All-Time High (518 days) Orange: Halving to Bear Market Breakout (994 days) Red: Halving to Cycle Low (882 days) Purple: Lowest Time During Cycle (112 days) Blue Arrow: Cycle High to Next All-Time High (1,085) Teal: Cycle Low To Next Cycle High (1,064 days) I then copied and pasted these timelines onto the rest of the halving cycles & noticed that each of them have been correct +/- 30 days. There are purposely no price targets in this chart, only date targets. Keep it simple. It's all just supply and demand. Here’s a breakdown of the human psychology that drives this price action cycle after cycle. Year 1 after halving: The halving happens and let’s assume demand for Bitcoin stays consistent with the previous year. The supply is growing at only 50% the rate it used to. The laws of supply and demand say that price goes up. That’s historically been the case the year after the halving. Year 2: With the price having gone up over the past year, word of mouth begins. Whispers of an investment going up ~3x in a year spreads through group chats and conversations with friends. New folks want to make money too, so they buy, driving demand up. Year 1 & 2 are where most of the price increase happens. Year 3: What goes up, must come down. Folks who bought two years ago could be up 5,10x, 20x on their initial investment. They begin cashing in, and demand starts to slow down. People begin to lose money and decide to sell, causing many others to do the same. Demand is way down, and so is price. Year 4: With price having gone down 50-70% the year before, long-term investors are scooping up crypto at a great price if they plan to hold until the next cycle. With those investors bringing demand back to life, price begins to go up. WIth the halving coming soon, the cycle starts over again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ezrafuller
Part 2 of DOGE vs BTCWeekly candles, zoomed all the way to the beginning of the trackable orderbooks. Bitcoin's halvening seems to trigger an immediate "alt season" pump, and DOGE always benefits massively, claiming higher lows as a store of value. Let's be clear- nobody originally wanted to DOGE to ever be considered a store of value- that's why it has infinite emissions (a slowly dripped never ending supply) . In fact, the original idea was to make fun of Bitcoin's purity as a digitally scarce asset! So it's fundamentally strange to me that this inflationary asset continues to gain value against it's disinflationary older cousin. Oh well- hope you enjoy this one. DO NOT BASE YOUR TRADES OFF OF THIS!
Long
by mineyourbiz
Insane fractal says DOGE should do this (or close to it)I looked at the fully zoomed out DOGE/BTC chart & saw pure signal through (value) the noise (US dollars), and it pointed me to a fractal where Doge should currently be in a HYPERBOLIC run up in value against Bitcoin . If Bitcoin continues to have an irrational climb up toward $100k, then this channel may also hold up as DOGE crosses $1 These are the psychological levels of total retail euphoria- everyone who's ever bought these assets prior to just a few weeks ago is in massive profit, but BTC maxis nowhere near as much DOGE holders! If this irrationally exuberant channel holds, then MUST come a reckoning somewhere near/above $100k BTC and $1 DOGE.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by mineyourbiz
The number 1400 in the Bitcoin chartThe pattern where there is a roughly 1,400-day interval between two peaks or two bottoms in Bitcoin cycles aligns with Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. These cycles are usually associated with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years and reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created. Historically, this event has been followed by new bullish trends in the Bitcoin market. In Bitcoin's four-year cycles, the general trend is as follows: Halving: A reduction in supply due to the halving of mining rewards increases demand and initiates an upward trend. Bull Run: Bitcoin’s price rises rapidly and reaches new highs. Correction and Decline: After reaching a peak, the market usually enters a corrective phase, and prices decrease. Bottom Phase: Prices gradually reach a bottom and stabilize for a while until a new cycle begins. These cycles, with approximately 1,400 days between two peaks or two bottoms, are consistent with Bitcoin’s historical patterns. However, as the market matures and more institutional players enter, these cycles may evolve, but so far, the pattern has remained.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradeEngineering
Potential trade setup on BRTUSDWe are looking at a short trade on BRTUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is trend and direction alignment with this trade. Trade has taken out the upper stretch but higher timeframes trend and direction is to the downside. We will take the trade with a higher probability towards opposite stretch level being taken out. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved. Trader Order Details: BRTUSD(Short) E - 71.55 SL - 72.43 T - 70.40 We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTShort
by masterthemarkets2010
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [Weekly]Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function. This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension and volatile ranges in prior cycles on the Weekly chart. I will follow this post showing the daily chart. Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
BNC:BLXLong
by Brodie
Presidential cycle. Will the crossing of RUT and SPX be repeatedDuring the Presidential Cycle is possible to verify that both indexes make peaks and troughs by the same time with similar moves. By early 2016, the indexes followed the same movement by roughly three months, after that SP500 and Russell2000 made a new high just before the elections. The prices continues to rise until the pandemic. By early March 2020, SPX crosses above RTU and it was above until a little before Biden election, thereafter RUT crossed again making a new high two months later SP500 also made a new high. By early January 2024, SPX crossed definitely RUT with SPX already making a new high. So following the history after the elections is time to RUT to cross above the SPX line as well as to reach another higher high(??)
TVC:RUT
by AFCapital21
Altseason, Microcaps & Bitcoin ATH | BTC | BTC.D | TOTAL3An important analysis as the first part of my ongoing outlook for Bitcoin, now that my target has hit. Not too long ago, I did a focus on altcoins by market cap - and the order in which they rally. This mainly speaks to the top 10 altcoins by market cap, and how they follow BT closely. However, throughout the cycle, you will see microcaps move independently, aka pump and dups, but the real parabolic increases will happen when BTC is trading bullish, especially towards the peak / just after the peak of BTC. Together with watching the Bitcoin Dominance chart, that is what we discuss in more detail today. ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
3