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Economic Cycles

Technology and Crypto Cycle Global liquidity leads all. The winners and main beneficiaries of increased liquidity have been and will continue to be technology and crypto. Do not fight the tape. Halving years and post halving years coinciding with the US presidential election and the debt refinance cycle for the government is a breeding ground for increased liquidity on the horizon. Bears will continue to post recession porn but the chart speaks for itself. This time is not different. You cannot call for a black swan that is not how it works. Everyone debating over whether or not the bull is over or is only just beginning is classic disbelief right before the euphoria. Lots of people on the timeline shorting AT LOWS and becoming max bearish is the sign. Oct 2023 - Mar 2024 was just a sample of what is ahead. Being consistently bullish and optimistic has offered substantial returns the past couple of decades and will continue to do so as technology improves in the next decades to come. Short to med term I would not be surprised if we see some pullbacks and ranging in equities as well as crypto. But heading into Q4 and especially beginning of 2025 I expect significant strength in the markets. BTC - Orange NDX - White Global Liquidity - Teal
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by bhx10
1
De-Dollarization and the Unstoppable SPY - It's somehow insane to me to wake up and see such doom and gloom on the screen, and have such a strong CBOE:SPX ripping in the face of all the bad headlines. Yet again this morning we're up and to the right, despite a "bumpy landing", war in the Middle East, and various black swan events in Asia among other regions stirring rumors of various unwinds. How can the headlines miss this bigger picture? While doom and gloom reign, there is a lack of coverage around the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ), which takes a mix of data from both central banks and currency pairs, and pulls them together to look at Dollar strength relative to the world. The index moves slowly, but it's the larger trend that reporters often fail to make a headline out of. There is no doubt that over the last few years, the dollar remains stable, as it's done very little... but today dollar instability may become more of a common discussion. Despite the DXY instability, people are still confident in the US economy, and that means a strong equity index performance as a result, considering most S&P 500 and major companies are exporting at a higher rate than importing, and as a result, their COGS, as well as other key cost measures, will decline on a relative basis. If we were indeed in a protectionist regime, it would be MUCH harder to keep indexes moving in the right direction, but it does indeed seem like we are on track to have a weaker dollar in the near-term. If we do import more consumer staples than we export, a weaker dollar creates more inflation woes. This is not likely a problem for groceries, energy, and auto, which have some strong domestic offsets to keep competition prices low. I would assume - albeit I don't know - that the Federal Reserve has a perfect sense of what dollar weakness is good for, and I would think that it is an inflation trade that they parry with a weaker dollar. This leaves me to ask... how low can the dollar go? What other assets benefit? Obviously $ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ?
TVC:DXYShort
by CrosbyVenture
BIOC A safe and excellent opportunity by all standardsWhat the global atmosphere is witnessing is the escalation of the new monkey epidemic, and also the raising of drug prices in Egypt by a decision of the Egyptian Medicine Authority. Entering the diverse winter season can be more difficult than summer is a paradise for Egyptian pharmaceutical companies listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange From my personal experience, I exited gold today on the date of publication of this theory, and tomorrow I will buy an amount of shares amounting to 10 thousand shares. I put this process into history for success or otherwise, and I hope to achieve 25 to 30% returns on that money.
EGX:BIOCLong
by atuumra
1
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: NFLX Should Continue RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in NFLX suggests that the Stock has completed a bearish sequence from 7.05.2024 high. The decline made a double correction Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.05.2024 high, wave (W) ended at 600.00 low. Rally in wave (X) ended at 678.97 with internal subdivision as a zig zag correction structure. Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 655.54 and wave B ended at 631.50. Wave C higher ended at 678.97 which completed wave (X) in higher degree. Then, NFLX turned lower in wave (Y) with internal subdivision as another double correction structure. Down from wave (X), wave W ended at 617.00 and wave X ended at 646.71. Last leg wave Y lower ended at 583.50 which completed wave (Y) and ((4)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((5)). Near term, we are calling a leading diagonal as wave 1 of (1) of ((5)). This wave 1 ended at 632.00 high and wave 2 pullback finished at 605.50. From this point, the stock resumed to the upside in wave 3 and once the wave 3 is completed, it should see 3, 7 or 11 swings correction as wave 4 before resuming the rally again.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: USDJPY is Correcting higherShort Term Elliott Wave USDJPY suggests that the pair is developing a bearish sequence from 07.03.2024 high. The decline made a double correction Elliott Wave structure. Down from 07.03.2024 high, wave A ended at 155.36 low. Rally in wave B ended at 157.86 high with internal subdivision as zig zag structure. Then, the pair resuming lower completing wave C at 151.93 low which ended wave (W) in higher degree. USDJPY turned higher in wave (X) connector ending at 155.22 high. Down from wave (X), the pair continued forming the double correction structure. Wave A of (Y) ended at 148.50 low and wave B bounce ended at 150.89 high. Final leg lower as wave C ended at 141.66 which completed wave (Y) and ((W)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((X)) correction. Near term, we are calling an impulse structure as wave (A) that ended at 148.22 high. Now, the pair is developing wave (B) pullback. This retracement could end in 145.43 – 144.08 area to then continue higher in wave (C) of ((X)). Once wave ((X)) structure is finished, we are expecting the pair to continue lower in wave ((Y)).
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BTC Long - Comparing to Global M2GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY vs CRYPTO Relation Global Money Supply Breaking Upwards has historically led to All of Crypto Breaking Upwards CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:SOL CRYPTOCAP:ETH etc Right now, Global Money Supply (Global M2) is breaking upwards to new all-time highs. Publishing to follow, as I am relatively 'newer' at using macro tools such as Global Money Supply (Global M2) in relation to projecting crypto greater cycles Cheers -@CryptoCurb
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCurb
22
Long trade The Wyckoff method has been used as a narrative for this buyside trade. Trending Inside the Range in the Wyckoff Method The Wyckoff method is a technical analysis approach focusing on market trends, phases, and the behavior of large institutional investors. It involves phases of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown to predict market movements and identify trading opportunities. Trending inside the range occurs during the accumulation and distribution phases. In the accumulation phase, large investors build positions within a price range, absorbing supply without significantly moving prices. This phase is characterized by horizontal price movements with defined support and resistance levels. The current trade capitalizes on movements within this range, seeking to exploit the predictable behavior of prices before a breakout. Tue 5th Aug 24 9:00 AM LND to NY Session AM Buyside Entry 1Hr TF Entry: 0.64800 Profit Level: 0.66692 (2.92%) Stop Level: 0.64693 (0.17%) RR: 17.68 Target: Price low 0.66688 3rd July 24
Long
by davidjulien369
$MARA - New Swing Long Trade Opportunity!NASDAQ:MARA - Hello everyone! I'm excited to share this with you! Over the past year, whenever the RSI has touched 30 or very close to it on the daily chart (marked with white vertical lines), it has always rallied by 100% or even more. There was only one instance where it failed to reach 100% and instead rallied by 41%, which is still a decent performance. This is absolutely incredible! So, should we be worried and sell, or is it time to buy more? The choice is yours!
NASDAQ:MARALong
by cumacevik
S&P Bearish case - Multi year shows risk of top / market crash?Please see chart notes I am wrong if we get a blow off top back up and over the top of channel but if it falls back then this long term chart works. Its tough to get out at the top unless you are hedged now Market crashes typically come in late aug / Sep / Oct so just be careful out there We have not dropped back recently to test the Weekly 200 EMA for a long time, even longer for a big set back. May be relatively better to go to Gold as it showing strength. If you are aggressive move into an inverse hedge fund like XXX - Inverse Nasdaq Tech etc Other Index confirmation: DJIA also has a top against channel / Japan looks in trouble / India looks like end of banana and China has broken down already. Sentiment indicators compared with times just before crashes are mostly higher signaling worst case now than they were before prior crashes I want to be long but need to be very cautious now due to late Aug / Sep / Oct potential crash with all this JPYUSD carry trade unwinding it could reveal further risk off / have a deeper issue
SP:SPXShort
by William_Playfair
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: SPX Resumed the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in SPX suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from March 2023 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave ((5)) while dips remain above 5124.76 low. Since March 2024 high of (3), it starts a correction as wave (4) ending in April at 4953.56 low and bounced again. The market resumed the rally building an impulse as wave (5) ended at 5669.67 high and also wave ((3)) in higher degree. SPX begins a large retracement in July 16 high. Down from wave ((3)), the index dropped developing a double correction structure. First leg lower, built a zig zag correction to complete a wave (W) at 5390.95 low. Then, the market did a flat structure higher as wave (X) ended at 5566.16 high. The index resumed to the downside forming another zig zag as wave (Y) of ((4)). The cycle was completed at 5119.26 low and also wave ((4)). Actually, SPX has continued higher trading in wave (1) of ((5)). The wave 1 of (1) ended at 5330.64 high and wave 2 of (1) finished at 5195.54 low. The wave 3 of (1) started and we are expecting more upside. While price action stays above 5119.26 low, we are calling for more upside to continue the rally as wave ((5)).
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2