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Economic Cycles

Fed Watch Tool Target Rates on the US 10 YOn this graph, we see the current priced in Interest Rates of the FED Watch Tool in compare to the US 10 Year Treasuries. We can clearly identify by how much the market is frontrunning and at what pace the market believes the Interest Rates will decline. The Orange Box below is the average Interest Rate of ~2.75% and the expected Mid/Long Term Interest Rate, until something brakes and the next Liquidity Cycle begins. I personnaly believe that we will see an even faster pace in the future, hence the Earnings showing more uncertainty in the guidance of Corporate Ameria. Additionally the job openings decline, more people are unemployed, the Yen carry trade is not yet unwinded, consumer credit and auto loans are on verge of a credit shock. Conclusion: hence TLT is pretty much the exact counterpart of the US10Y, I decided to go long TLT with leverage.
TVC:US10YShort
by derMatzeImNetz
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: FTSE should Continue HigherShort Term Elliott Wave in FTSE suggests that the index has completed a bearish sequence from 5.15.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5.15.2024 high, wave A ended at 8106.79 low. Rally in wave B ended at 8405.24 high with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 8279.75 and wave ((b)) ended at 8056.01. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 8405.24 which completed wave B in higher degree. Then, FTSE turned lower in wave C with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 8158.03 low and wave ((ii)) ended slighly up at 8174.71 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 7972.35 and wave ((iv)) ended at 8024.83 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 7915.94 low which completed wave C and (4) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave (5). Near term, we are calling an impulse structure as wave ((i)) from wave (4) low. This wave ((i)) should be completed very soon and we are expecting a retracement in 3, 7 or 11 swings as wave ((ii)) before resuming the rally. The view is valid as price action remains above 7915.94 low.
FTSE:UKX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
SMH held its ground above key support levelToday was an important day for semi conductors. In order to solidify a bullish pivot it needed to remain above a key support level. SMH held above key support lack luster moves across the market indicated indecision and caution amongst traders about the future being bullish or bearish This could mark the sign of a turn around to the upside longer term considering the recent rally and today's modest moves, this could be the distribution phase of the rally cycle which would mark a small pullback in the coming days
NASDAQ:SMH
by ratchet-mint
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move. Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100. If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings. I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings. But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
NYSE:BABA
by TanukiTrade
Timeline of Bitcoin cycles and where we are nowThis chart is also available as a static image: INTRO The study presented here divides Bitcoin cycles into separate phases, then measures the duration of each cycle, as well as of each individual phase and some of their combinations. It is then demonstrated when a possible top of the current cycle is likely to happen. A possible price of the cycle top is also shown, but the focus here is more on guessing the WHEN rather than the price. OVERVIEW Each cycle is divided into following phases: Previous ATH to bottom. Bottom to halving. Halving to ATH breakout. ATH breakout to top. On the chart blue rectangles show Bitcoin cycles. Blue vertical lines mark a start or an end of a cycle. Red lines correspond to cycle bottoms. Yellow lines are halvings. Green lines are ATH breakouts. Dashed lines are used for possible dates of future events. Four rows of date ranges at the bottom of the chart measure the time. The first row measures the length of each cycle phase. The second and third rows show how much time it took to get from bottom to ATH breakout and from bottom to top respectively. The forth row shows full cycle lengths. Red and green arrows measure the corrections and returns of each cycle. The chart also shows Fibonacci retracements for each cycle. COMPARING THE CYCLES The first cycle was very short and not like the others. The second and third cycles were longer lasting 49 and 47 months respectively. They were also very similar to each other with each phase lasting approximately the same amount of time. It took around a year to reach the bottom, then 17-18 months until the halving, after that 9 and 7 months to make a new ATH, and finally 8 and 11 months to reach the top. It took 27 and 24 months respectively from bottom to new ATH, 17 and 18 months respectively from halving to top, and it took 35 months exactly in both cycles from bottom to top. The current cycle is so far very similar to the previous two. 12 months to reach the bottom, 17 months until the halving. Note that although Bitcoin's price penetrated the previous ATH multiple times since March, we don't count it as a breakout since the price failed to rally higher. TRYING TO FORECAST THE FUTURE First of all, nobody can predict the future. Bitcoin cycles won't last forever and this cycle can pretty much be the last one and anything unexpected can happen any time. It's always important to be ready for the worst outcome and manage your risks accordingly. But let's assume that the remaining part of this cycle will also be similar to the past cycles, so can we forecast when the cycle is going to end? If we look at the chart, we can see that all previous cycles ended in November-December. Taking into consideration all other data we've discussed, the top can be projected to occur on November-December 2025. November gives us a bit better numbers closer to the data of the two previous cycles: 48 months total cycle duration, 36 months from the bottom to top and 19 months from the halving to top. We also have one known date in the future: the next halving, which is going to occur somewhere around March-April 2028. We can also forecast the approximate date of the next cycle bottom (if we are somehow lucky enough to have another cycle!) by placing it on November 2026 one year after the current cycle and 16 months before the next halving. Now, what about the dashed green line on the chart, the date when we're are finally going to have the ATH breakout? In the previous cycle we had 7 months between the halving and ATH breakout and also 24 months from the bottom to ATH breakout. If we take that data, it would give us November this year. But in the second cycle it took a bit longer: 27 months to reach the breakout (from the bottom). That would give us February 2025. So the breakout is likely to happen somewhere between November and February. WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE? As I said above, this idea is more focused on timing the top rather than the price so I'll keep this short. In the first two cycles, Bitcoin topped out at around 2.36 fib level, while in the previous cycle it failed to reach 2.36 and stopped at 1.618. If it reaches 1.618 this cycle, that would be around 174K. May also be lower, but any higher level is very unlikely. CONCLUSION Bitcoin jumped from around 25K to almost 74K in a short period of time and many people became very greedy and impatient. After that it got stuck in a sideways movement for months. Everyone are frustrated and can't wait for the bull run to finally continue. Some are starting to doubt and afraid that the top may be in. But the data shows that everything is going according to schedule. Bitcoin is stuck because it was too early to have a cycle top. More patience is needed. Thank you for reading and I hope you will find this information useful!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by function_mechanic
1
Think the S&P can't go lower?The S&P trades well above the 50MA weekly, potentially overbought. Price action could work ifs way below the 200 MA. The risk to reward ratio may lead investors away from stocks and into bonds in favor of less but more assurable returns. Stocks have been all the rage since 2008 finacial collapse. The tide may have finally turned due to tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (i.e. no more low interest rates). TLDR - Investors are going to be risk averse
SP:SPX
by turtlebuster
1
Alt Season is Right Around the CornerBitcoin dominance has been growing in the past few days as it outperforms the rest of the cryptocurrency market after the sharp drop last week. Many things are pointing towards Bitcoin continuing to outperform in the short term as we gear up for the next parabolic bull market. However, alt season is very close and, once BTC confirms it's breakout towards 100k, a lot of the large caps like Ethereum and Solana will begin to go up very quickly. This is based on my cyclical analysis of alt seasons. To get a better idea of the cyclicality of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and alt seasons, check out my previous post which predicts the next parabolic rise in November: An important thing to note when referring to alt seasons is that they don't last long (only a few months). So understand your timeframe when investing over the coming weeks. Another important idea is how money tends to flow during this period. It historically starts with Bitcoin breaking its all time high and beginning to rise. During this time, altcoins tend to underperform. But once BTC consolidates and begins to go sideways, that's when the rest of the market has time to catch up. In the chart I show 4 key points: Bitcoin This is when BTC makes a significant breakout whether that's from a significant resistance level or its ATH. This is where BTC is outperforming 99% of the market. Ethereum & Large Caps BTC will begin to slow down and a lot of the major altcoins will see a big increase. This is where you can find great trade setups on the BTC pairs like ETHBTC, SOLBTC, etc. BTC Consolidates BTC will start to go sideways, cooling off and preparing for its next rise. From here you might see some pumps in mid-low caps. These tend to be volatile and hard to predict. Small caps - Quick and fast As BTC continues to go sideways, some small caps might experience quick pumps in price. Similarly, these tend to be even more volatile and hard to predict. After this, the pattern repeats back up to Bitcoin until we reach a peak and begin a new bear market. The cryptocurrency bull market is brewing up and alt season can offer some incredibly profitable opportunities. Plan ahead, and don't overtrade.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by spilkerBTC
Second big shortAnalyst AhmadArz📊 🕹 Price Action: The chart shows a recent drop followed by a retracement, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend. The price currently sits below a significant resistance level around 184.93 USDT, which has previously acted as a barrier to further upward movement. ▶️Entry : 165.94 USDT 🔴Stop Loss (SL): 174.87 USDT 🎯 Target Points (TP): Four target points are marked on the chart: - TP1: 158.45 USDT - TP2: 150.62 USDT - TP3: 140.21 USDT - TP4: 130.04 USDT These targets are aligned with the expectation that the price will continue to drop, offering potential profit-taking opportunities at each level. 🚨 Risk/Reward Zones: The red zone above the current price represents the potential loss area if the trade moves against the anticipated direction, signaling where a stop-loss might be placed. The grey zone indicates the profit area, showing the expected price levels where the trader might consider exiting the position to secure gains. 🔍Simple: Loss or Profit: This annotation underscores the straightforward nature of the trading signal—either the trade will hit the stop-loss and result in a loss, or it will reach one of the target points, leading to a profit. The overall sentiment in the chart points to a cautious but calculated bearish strategy, aiming to capitalize on the expected downward movement in the SOL/USDT pair. Thank for boost this idea.🙏✨
Short
by ahmadarz
3
Short trade Sellside Wed 7th Aug 24 13:00 PM NY Session Entry level: 55882.2 Profit level: 43480.7 (22.19%) Stop level: 56269.7 (0.69%) RR: 32 News driver BlackRock did not sell its crypto holdings during the recent market collapse, demonstrating confidence in its investment strategy. Despite facing an 8% loss the previous week and being in serious financial distress before Monday's collapse, BlackRock maintained its positions, reflecting a firm belief in the long-term potential of their crypto assets. For more details, you can read the full article on U.Today. Coinstats The current price of Bitcoin is £43,439.08, reflecting a 3.12% decrease in the last 24 hours. The live market cap stands at £857,349,844,587.64. Bitcoin has a circulating supply of 19,736,831 BTC and a maximum supply of 21,000,000 BTC, with a 24-hour trading volume of £34 billion. Summary and Conclusion: In the midst of a significant market downturn, BlackRock's decision to hold onto its crypto assets underscores its long-term confidence in the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to experience volatility, with its price dropping to £43,439.08, a 3.12% decrease in the last 24 hours. This sell-side strategy for the NY session aims for a substantial profit level while maintaining a tight stop level, reflecting a high risk-reward ratio of 32. The current market conditions, influenced by major institutional behavior and overall market performance, present both challenges and opportunities for traders. Forecast : Lower prices in the short term.
Short
by davidjulien369
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: YM_F should Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in E-Mini Dow Jones Futures (YM_F) suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from April-2023 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave ((5)) while dips remain above 38535 low. Since April-2024 high of (3), it starts to move sideways for almost 3 months to build a triangle structure. This triangle completed wave (4) at 39284 low. The market resumed the rally building an impulse as wave (5) ended at 41672 high and also wave ((3)) in higher degree. YM_F begins a big correction in July 18 high. Down from wave ((3)), the index did an impulse structure to complete a wave (A) at 40053 low. Then, the market did a bounce developing a double correction as wave (B). Up from wave (A), wave W ended at 41051 high. The connector (X) ended at 40606 low and last push higher completed wave (Y) at 41427 and also wave (B). The market resumed to the downside forming another impulse as wave (C) of ((4)). It placed 1 of (C) at 41028 low, 2 at 41305 high, 3 at 39518 low, 4 at 39880 high and finally 5 at 38541 to complete wave (C) and wave ((4)). While price action stays above 38541 low, we are calling for more upside to continue the rally as wave ((5)).
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast