Get started

Economic Cycles

BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) Weekly TF 2025 Summary: BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) remains compressed near historic lows. This analysis explores the potential for a volatility expansion cycle, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and how shifts in volatility may precede directional moves in BTC and the broader crypto market. Chart Context: Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Current BVOL: ~13.23 Historical Support Zone: ~11.76–15 (consolidation base since 2022) Resistance Area: ~25–35 (marked breakout threshold) Fibonacci Retracement (from peak ~192.79): 23.6% = 56.17 → 2nd TP 38.2% = 89.01 → 3rd TP 48.6% = 99.74 → Intermediate fib zone 61.8% = 123.63 → Cycle expansion cap (potential BTC top region) 100% = 192.79 → All-time spike (rare volatility events) Key Technical Observations: Consolidation Floor: Since mid-2022, BVOL has hovered near extreme lows often a prelude to sharp directional moves. Support-turned-Resistance: Past volatility surges often topped near fib clusters (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%). These will likely act as TP zones during volatility spikes. Expected Path: Base breakout above 25 → TP1 = 35 Acceleration phase → TP2 = 56–60 High volatility climax → TP3 = 85–89 Volatility Trend Commentary: Current Phase: Low volatility compression, common in accumulation phases. Volatility Expansion Signal: A break above the 25–35 band may signal the start of a high-volatility impulse (typically aligned with large BTC directional moves). Dotted Paths on the chart reflect the two key expansion possibilities: Straight rally up to TP3 (85) Mid-stage pullback post-TP2 (bear trap scenario) Macro Correlation: BVOL vs BTCUSD: Historically, BVOL lows precede strong BTC trends — both bull and bear cycles. BVOL vs BTC.D: BVOL surges often shift dominance; either BTC leads during volatility or altcoins rotate post-BTC move. BVOL vs TOTAL / TOTAL2 / TOTAL3: Volatility compression in BVOL is directly tied to range-bound TOTAL3. Total: Total2: Total3: BVOL expansion is often mirrored by strong TOTAL2 & TOTAL rallies. Confluence seen between BVOL TP zones and critical fib levels in TOTAL charts. Bias & Strategy Implication: Volatility Expansion Expected: Current structure is unsustainable; expansion is highly probable in coming weeks/months. Watch BTC Price Action: If BTC breaks key levels while BVOL rises → Confirmed trend. Portfolio Strategy: Prepare for volatility-driven liquidation zones. Use BVOL to gauge position sizing and risk. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis is part of the BitonGroup Macro Series. BVOL is not a directional indicator but a volatility proxy. use in combination with price and dominance metrics. Always combine volatility forecasts with proper stop-loss and leverage management.
BITMEX:BVOLLong
by BitonGroup
Bitcoin H1: Effort vs Result Breakdown!Massive selling volume spikes near the last swing low, but price reversal came in strong! 📉➡️📈 The law of Effort vs Result at play: Effort: Sellers dumped hard, but the result? A bullish reversal 🚀 Result: Price back above key levels and closing near $109.5K. 💥 🔮 Price Target: → Immediate Resistance: $110K → Next Extension: $112K This move shows that even with high volume sell-offs, buyers are in control. 🚀💰
Long
by Trading_Soldier
Lundin Mining Outlook - Copper trade - Coming monthsIm getting really bullish on this stock. With a few copper mines left in the world with tiny lifespans, Lundin mining comes in with copper mines that will deliver for the next 15-20 years. Taking advantage of these high copper prices in the coming raging bull market. If the price close above the upper resistance line then it will most likely take off. Eventually we will most likely get a pullback to make the resistance line to a support level. Im using DCA method for entry on this one. Always make your own analysis and your own decision. Don´t see this as a financial advice. I only show you what I do. Nothing else. OMXSTO:LUMI CMCMARKETS:COPPERN2025 COMEX:HG1! OANDA:XCUUSD CAPITALCOM:COPPER
OMXSTO:LUMILong
by Mr_Anonymous_Investor
BTC long-term prediction Hi all, After initial reflection on Bitcoin's long-term prospects (see link below), I would like to make a more detailed analaysis for it in the next two or three years. Development cycles and characteristics I'll devide the evolution of BTC into three main cycles: Cycle 0: From the birth of BTC until November 2021 Cycle 1: From Nov 2011 to Nov 2018. In this cycle, we have observed two Halving events (November 28, 2012) and (July 9, 2016 Cycle 2: From Nov 2018 to Nov 2025. This cycle encompasses the most recent halving event (May 11, 2020) and the upcoming one (April 26, 2024) In every cycle, BTC has the following common price action Main Trendline Support: it confirms the exponential increase in BTC's price. Cycle High: it is intriguing to observe that Cycle Highs tend to materialize approximately 1 to 1.5 years after the halving event (or the birth) of BTC Break-down event: It happened two times and both on November (2011 and in 2018). This marks the end of a cycle. About historical BTC Highs Since its birth, BTC has achieved four Cycle Highs. Connecting two consecutive Cycle Highs with a trendline reveals that the slope of this line is halved (devided by 2) between two Halving Events. This gradual decrease in slope appears rational and organic, as exponential growth is typically unsustainable. What's even more intriguing is that this 1:2 ratio aligns with the reduction of mined BTC by half after each Halving Event (or the block reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions). Predictions for the next Halving and beyond By considering the aforementioned characteristics in BTC's evolution, we can utilize historical patterns to provide potential insights into the future. Here's a possible scenario: Leading up to the 4th Halving (scheduled for April 26, 2024), BTC prices are likely to align with the blue support trendline, and significant deviations from this trendline are not anticipated. Following the 4th Halving, BTC may enter an accelerated phase, potentially triggering a major bull run. A new price high could be achieved somewhere between May and September 2025, based on historical averages of the time needed for BTC to reach a new high after halving. This new price high is projected to be approximately $120k. However, it's essential to note that a subsequent bear market is expected to follow, possibly manifesting in November 2025. During this phase, BTC may experience a gradual decline, with prices potentially dropping as low as $30k. It's vital to remember that predicting the future with certainty in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is challenging and often speculative. These projections are based on historical trends and patterns but are subject to various unpredictable factors. What do you think about this analysis and what is your price prediction for BTC in the next bullrun?
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by evasivesteering
3
US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025 📊 Chart Context Current Yield: \~4.50% Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones. 📉 Key Technical Observations Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise) TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance. TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone. TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection) Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession) Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand. Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6% Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8% Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6% Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways): Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation. Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone. Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone. These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events. Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases: Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence. Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones. After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure. These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent. Macro & Fundamental Context: 1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025. 2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower. 3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets. 4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up. Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out): ↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3) * Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens. * Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity. * Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto. * Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts. ↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4): * Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal. * Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles. * DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins. * Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities. Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone): * Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges. * Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3. * Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation. Related Reference Charts TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly
TVC:US10YLong
by BitonGroup
SUPER Showing Same Cycle Structure as Last 2 RalliesSuperVerse is forming the exact same base structure that preceded its last two explosive rallies — both of which yielded 400%+ and 1800%+ moves within a few months. We’re currently trading in the $0.61–$0.67 range — right where historical expansion phases have begun. Volume is drying up, EMA ribbons are compressing, and the chart is coiling just above proven structural support. This is typically the point where patient entries see the most asymmetric upside. Stop placement is clear ($0.55 or $0.49 depending on risk appetite), and the first leg up targets $0.90. Beyond that, $1.30 and $2.00 line up with past cycle symmetry. If $0.75 breaks clean, this setup activates fully. I’ll be watching volume closely for confirmation. Until then, I’m accumulating with tight risk and clear conviction. Drop your thoughts below — do you see the same pattern repeating?
COINBASE:SUPERUSDLong
by ictc3d
Altseason Index Proxy (TOTAL3 / BTC.D) Weekly TF Symbol & Timeframe: * **Symbol**: CRYPTOCAP\:TOTAL3 / CRYPTOCAP\:BTC.D * **Timeframe**: Weekly (1W), * **Purpose**: A clean, data-driven proxy for detecting altseason momentum Technical Structure: ✅ Key Support Zones * **13.47B (61.8% Fib)**: Critical golden zone; current price consolidation area * **12.45B (50.0% Fib)**: Lower bound of golden zone * **11.00B**: Historical support zone * **8.15B (0.0%)**: Absolute bottom of retracement range 🔹 Hidden Bullish Divergence * **MACD Histogram & Signal Lines** show hidden bullish divergence * Price action forming **higher lows** while MACD makes **lower lows** * Indicates trend continuation potential 🔢 Fibonacci Targets TP1: 16.8B (100.0%) TP2: 22.2B (161.8%) TP3: 30.7B (261.8%) 🔄 Expected Path * Potential short-term correction toward 12.4B followed by a breakout * Bullish continuation path sketched with progressive Fib targets 📈 Macro & Fundamental Confluence 📉 Liquidity and Monetary Easing * Global monetary policy is easing (e.g., Fed pivot expected mid-2025) * Increased liquidity historically precedes strong altcoin rallies BTC Dominance Decline * BTC.D rolling down from long-term highs * Signals beginning of capital rotation into altcoins 🚀 Emerging Narratives * Rise of L2s (e.g., Base, zkSync), AI tokens, real-world asset protocols * Fresh narratives tend to amplify altseason rotations 💼 Institutional Tailwinds * Spot ETH ETF approvals pave way for alt ETF flows * Regulatory clarity expected to reduce uncertainty in late 2025 Related Reference Charts: 🌐 TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH) 📊 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) These charts offer standalone confirmation of: Altcoin strength forming on TOTAL3 BTC dominance facing structural resistance Composite Altseason Thesis: 1. Liquidity injections + halving = BTC rally 2. BTC.D breakdown + TOTAL3 support = altcoin strength 3. Technical confirmations: hidden divergence, fib confluence 4. Narrative and regulatory catalysts = widespread rotation **Conclusion**: We are entering a prime zone for altseason acceleration. Price reclaim above 13.47B and continued BTC.D drop will validate bullish thesis. Monitor closely for breakouts past TP1 and momentum into TP2/TP3. 📌 Current status: - Price rebounding in the 12.45–13.47B Fibonacci zone (50–61.8%) - Hidden bullish divergence on MACD + ascending price structure - BTC.D has rolled off 65% resistance — suggesting capital rotation 📊 Altseason Thesis: 1. Post-halving BTC rally → profit dispersion into altcoins 2. Macro conditions (Fed pivot, record liquidity) enabling risk-on environment 3. Technical confirmation via index momentum and fib structure 4. Narrative tailwinds: Layer-2 adoption, AI-crypto, altcoin ETF catalysts 📈 Targets: - TP1 @ 16.8B (100% Fib) - TP2 @ 22.2B (161.8% Fib) - TP3 @ 30.7B (261.8% Fib) 🟢 Key support: 12.45–13.47B zone; breakout + BTC.D collapse = altseason trigger.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by BitonGroup
BTC.D (Dominance at Critical Fibonacci Confluence) 2025 Weekly **Summary:** Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is testing a major Fibonacci confluence near the 66% level. This zone historically acts as a major pivot and may signal either a continued dominance rally or a potential reversal setting the stage for altseason. We use three layered Fibonacci retracements to outline dominant trend zones, key resistances, and projected targets. **Chart Context:** This chart uses **three distinct Fibonacci retracements** to map the historical and projected behavior of BTC dominance: 1. **Primary Fib** (100% to 0%): Captures the macro move from BTC.D \~100% down to its 0% level at \~0%, which aligns with the first altseason (2018–2019). 2. **Secondary Fib** (100% to 38.88%): Maps the first bearish wave to identify potential recovery levels. BTC.D retraced up to the 61.8% (\~73.68%) but failed to break further. 3. **Third or the Current Fib** (73.68% to 38.88%): Maps the latest bearish fall in BTC.D. As of now, BTC.D is hovering at the 78.6% retracement level of this move, indicating heavy resistance. **Key Technical Observations:** * **1st TP (Resistance):** 66% — Strong Fibonacci confluence zone: * Fib2 48.6% ≈ Fib3 78.6% * Major reversal zone historically * **2nd TP (Support):** 52.25% — Multi-Fib confluence: * Fib1 48.6%, Fib2 61.8%, Fib3 38.2% * **3rd TP (Ultimate Support):** 38.88% — Historical BTC.D bottom, aligned with the first altseason. * Intermediate Fibonacci confluences between 48%–60% serve as layered support during decline phases. **Indicators:** * No external indicators used; pure multi-frame Fibonacci confluence. * Price action structure and historical patterns highlight potential market rotation zones. **Fundamental Context:** The current phase of the market reflects increasing speculative activity in altcoins while Bitcoin consolidates. Historically, high BTC.D correlates with Bitcoin-led rallies, while a sharp drop often triggers altseason. * Growing inflows into ETH, SOL, and possible now XRP, and mid-cap alts suggest capital rotation. * If BTC.D faces rejection from 66%, the market could enter a new altseason phase. * Macro tailwinds (e.g., easing monetary policy, risk-on sentiment) support altcoin performance in the medium term. **Philosophical or Narrative View:** BTC.D acts as a barometer of market risk preference. As confidence expands beyond Bitcoin, money flows into altcoins—like tributaries branching off the main river. The rejection from major confluences signals this psychological shift, marking phases of creative decentralization. **Related Reference Charts:** * TOTAL3 Fibonacci Setup (Altcoin market excluding BTC & ETH): * TOTAL2 Correction Probabilities: **Bias & Strategy Implication:** * **Primary Bias:** Bearish rejection from 66% followed by correction to 52% and potentially 38.88%. * **Alternative Scenario:** Brief breach above 66% before reversal. * Traders may consider rotating into altcoin exposure if BTC.D confirms reversal at the confluence zone. **Time Horizon:** * Mid to Long Term (1–6 months outlook) * Weekly timeframe tracking **Notes & Disclaimers:** * This analysis is for educational purposes. Market conditions may evolve rapidly. * Use proper risk management when acting on dominance signals.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by BitonGroup
TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap (Excluding BTC & ETH) Weekly TF 2025Summary TOTAL3 is currently in a macro bullish cycle and undergoing a mid-cycle correction. The chart presents a Fibonacci-based structural roadmap with 3 Take Profit zones, identifying both correction supports and breakout targets. There is a high probability of short-term downside before a significant altcoin rally. 🌈 Chart Context Fibonacci Retracement (Primary Leg): 100% = 285.3B 0% = 1.16T Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension A = 285.3B B = 775B C = 464.11B Price as of analysis: ~845.62B Key Technical Observations Support Levels: 61.8% Fib Retracement = 618.5B Strong Confluence Zone: Fib Retracement 48% + Fib Extension 50–61.8% (highlighted on chart) 38.2% Fib Retracement = 824.38B Resistance Levels: 951.73B: 23.6% Retracement + 100% Extension – strong resistance zone before $1T psychological level Take Profit Zones: 1 TP (1.1T) = 127% Fib Extension (Upper leg of parallel extension) 2 TP (1.28T) = 161.8% Fib Extension 3 TP (1.7T) = -61.8% Fib Retracement and 261.8% Extension confluence zone Pattern & Projection: The structure suggests a possible correction phase to lower support before continuation. Bullish continuation expected after corrective phase, shown by the projected dotted path. Structure: Bullish structure with healthy correction in mid-phase of the macro uptrend. Fundamental Context Altcoin Lag: TOTAL3 remains ~40% below its ATH, while BTC and ETH have already hit new highs. Liquidity Shift Expected: Altcoin capital rotation tends to follow after BTC dominance stabilizes or drops. Macro Backdrop: Fed expected to cut rates later in 2025 Stablecoin legislation and ETF narratives building altcoin trust Institutional inflows are slowly diversifying from BTC to ETH and large-cap alts These suggest a possible shakeout or deeper correction before altseason breakout gains strength. Bias & Strategy Implication: Bias: Bullish Mid-Term – Correction Before Continuation Expected Scenario: Pullback to strong support zones (824B–733B–618B), followed by a sustained breakout toward 1.1T–1.7T. Invalidation: Weekly close below 618B may delay bullish structure and extend correction. Strategy: Long entries at support zones with tight invalidation Scaling out near TP1, TP2, TP3 based on market momentum Philosophical View Patience is the virtue of the second leg in a macro trend. The correction serves to eject the impatient, reprice risk, and strengthen conviction. When TOTAL3 rises from deep support, it will be not just price but confidence that rallies. Related Reference Charts TOTAL Market Cap Structural Breakout: TOTAL2 Altcoin Chart with Fibonacci Path: ✅ Tags #TOTAL3 #AltcoinMarket #Fibonacci #Altseason #CryptoCorrection #CryptoMacro #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishOutlook #MidCycleCorrection #Crypto2025 ⚠️ Notes & Disclaimers This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Markets are inherently risky. Do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by BitonGroup