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Economic Cycles

$BTC Critical Support Retest at 50WMA - Must Read!50WMA is a CRITICAL SUPPORT to watch for ₿itcoin. Historically, if CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes below it for more than one week, it signals the beginning of the BEAR MARKET. We’ve only seen BTC close beneath the 50WMA once in its history during a Post-Halving year, and that was in 2021, but then rallied to a new ATH. People often ask me what would invalidate my bull market thesis; this is one of them. I’ll be watching this support very closely, and if BTC closes below it for more than 2 weeks, i’m probably selling a good portion of my stack until we get more clarity in the market. However, this could very well have been the bottom of this correction. BTC is known to have a big Q1 drawdown in Post-Halving years. 2013 was a massive -82% correction over a week. 2017 gave us two. January -34% over 7 days. March -33% over 14 days. January 2021 gave us -31% over 14 days. The current correction we’ve seen with BTC has been the longest over 35 days with -28%. $75k would be a -31% correction, which would line up perfectly with the previous cycle. That’s the line in the sand for me. If we did see the bottom with this 28% correction, that would line up with the diminishing return theory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
4
MicroStrategy $MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% DropMicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% Drop Feb28'25 With recent downturns in the crypto market, Bitcoin's sharp drop has significantly impacted companies like MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR , which has heavily invested in crypto. I've kept this analysis updated for my students throughout the week and figured I'd post it publicly. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, btc, bitcoin, mstr, micro, microstrategy, strategy, cryptocurrency, cryptodrop, cryptotrend, memecoins, crypto, digitalcurrency, digitalassets, mstrdrop, btcdrop, bitcoinidea, mstridea, mstranalysis, btcanalysis, cryptoanalysis, cryptotrades,
NASDAQ:MSTR
by TonyAiello
[ TimeLine ] Gold 27-28 February 2025Hello everyone, I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades: February 27, 2025 and/or February 27 + 28, 2025 We will wait for the price range from these candles to form as indicated with blue box. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips. If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
Privacy matters, and it will cost you in the futureGood day Investor and traders, When the criminals run show, they definitely don't want you to know it.  Privacy is a double edged sword. However, just because criminals use it doesn't mean it should shunned upon. Criminals also wear clothes and use curtains. Both are fashion statement second, but serve as privacy first.  Enough of my opinion, the chart speaks for its self. Other than my additions, this is a naked chart of XRM on the weekly. It shows a very distinct patterns of how it moves.  XMR is another coin that was in my thesis from a couple years back in the bear market of 2022 that was the "lengthening or alternating" altcoin cycles. Another cycle that looks like it want to repeat, just much more drawn out. I do believe it will repeat, it might take 10-20 years or so to do so.  The next big phase of privacy might have to have people getting a taste of CBDC or UBI, before they realize how much it will, or most likely could infringe upon their privacy. The chart shows early investors already knew this. Look at that move from 2016 to 2017  25 cents to $480 dollars. WOW, that rivaled XRP's big move!!!  The key pattern here is the initial move then the big correction, the retest (double top) and how it moves with the fib levels. I have highlighted this in the chart with the Monero XMR logo and and a circle then with the yellow rectangle. Its the same pattern just waaaay drawn out. So, after this double top M then correction, marks the key  before price explosion. IMO, I don't think it's and "IF" it happens, but "WHEN" it happens. These types patterns are what sparked my original thesis on these coins. IMO there is a reason  other than just profits, early investor recognized the eventual use case, just like in Bitcoin. Let me know what you think in the comments. Kind regards, WeAreSat0shi
CAPITALCOM:XMRUSDLong
by WeAreSat0shi
6
BTC At Critical Support on 200DMA + RSI Way Oversold₿itcoin testing critical support on the 200DMA 🚨 Last time it closed under on July 4, 2024 it ranged for 101 days. RSI hasn't been this oversold since August, 2023. Last time BTC was at this RSI level and closed under the 200DMA it ranged for 60 days. HOWEVER, the only time BTC has ever closed under the 200DMA on a Post-Halving year was in May 2021, where it then went on to rally to another new ATH. I'm personally buying here 💯
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
The JSE Top40 Medium-Term ViewThe JSE Top40 is at a point of a relief rally though the bigger picture is that of a yearly decline. So the expectation is that we can rally while expecting price to be capped by the black trendline, we either make it there or we turn down before reaching this point. Longer term I expect price to trend towards the green support line. Since we must breach this line, My interest will be on the grey horizontal line for support. A t the back of my mind is the COVID drop scenario, this is where we get extreme moves downwards representing a continuation of current cycle, otherwise without that scenario we would have a tough quarter one and two of 2025. We have been in recession like conditions and so far, we could be going through a silent recession whereby conditions point that way but the economic measures do not confirm, does not help that US being leader in market sentiment has had war excursions to affect the indicators as well as constant revisions of the unemployment figures. The coming of Trump might cause war spend to decrease unraveling the dire state of the economy. It is best for traders to be aware of such a scenario and effect on the markets.
JSE:J200
by runyamhere
LTC/USD Main trend. Halving. Cycles The psychology of repetitionMain trend. The graph is logarithmic. The timeframe is 1 month. This idea is relevant both for understanding the secondary trend work and as a training in simple cyclic, logical manipulation processes. Note also the halving of the LTC and the designated time zones between cycles. The primary trend is an uptrend in which a huge butterfly is forming (forming part 2) Secondary trend is a downward channel. Local trend in the secondary trend is a wedge. Coin in the coin market : Litecoin The chart is taken from the Bitfiniex exchange, I used it because of the long price history (the coin has been traded on this exchange for a long time). Of course, the chart is relevant for all exchanges with liquidity. The coin and the pair are liquid, it is acceptable to set large positions. The price behavior is predictable. Ups/Downs are similar. Let's consider them below. Everything is unpredictable only for absolutely predictable people, it always was, is and will be. Same time frame on a line chart (no market noise, pure trend direction) A close-up of this area on the line chart. And this area on the candlestick chart. What matters is the average buy/sell. Approach the market regardless of the size of your deposit as a major market participant. Stop thinking like a "hamster". You don't need to guess, you need to know and be prepared for any outcome, even unlikely scenarios. Psychology of behavior in the market. Expectation. Reality. "Stop-loss resets. Cyclicality of predictable behavior. . Predictable price behavior. "Knockouts" of obedient (acting by the rules) and naughty (acting on emotion) fools are as logical and predictable as anything else everywhere else. Increase your knowledge and experience, and it won't affect you. Remember, theory without practice is nothing. Real trading is very different from theory, you should understand that. That's why all "programmed traders" lose money or their earnings are quite modest. You should not ask anyone where to buy/sell this or that crypto-asset. You should initially know yourself under what conditions you will buy and under what conditions you will sell. Past "stop-losses" before secondary trend reversals . Secondary trend reversal zones and "takeout" before pullbacks in 2019 (+450 average) and 2021 (+900% average). Candlestick chart. 3-day timeframe. Fear peak zones. Line chart. Three-day timeframe. Fear peak zones. (without market noise). As we can see, this "fear peak" on the line chart evaporates, all these local "super resets" have no effect on the trend. It's just the "death of hamsters." The capitulation of human stupidity and greed. You can add predictability and submissiveness to this. The train always leaves without such marketable characters. Such always sell (fear) at the lowest prices, shortly before the trend reverses. It is worth adding that they buy at the highest prices "at the behest" of the pump to get fabulously "rich. This makes the cryptocurrency market super profitable. Such fuel is the basis of profit. "Market fuel flows" lend themselves to cycles. Price management is the psychology and manipulation of people's minds through basic instincts through price values. All of this is real and as old as the world. A foolish person keeps stepping on the same rake, each time telling himself that this is the last time, or this is a special case. This "last case" must be repeated systematically, but in different conditions that you create. Your effectiveness depends on how masterful you are at forming such obsessive thoughts in the mind of such market characters. Fundamentals of Trading. Trading strategy. Capital management. Price forecasting. It is your trading strategy and money management, based on your experience, that is the basis of trading, not guessing the price. But guessing is what most people want. Such people should have no money. As a rule, such people in real life are very poor, do not have their own business, go "to work" (do not want to take responsibility). They think real life doesn't give them many resources, but market speculation will quickly make them fabulously rich. Rather the opposite is true. Total impoverishment regardless of the direction of the trend due to the reinforcement of destructive qualities of a person with financial instruments. The behavior of such people in the market is a projection of what they are like in real life. The behavior of people in financial markets is a projection of what they are in real life. That is, their positive and negative psychological qualities. You can't run away from yourself. A stupid person will be overtaken by his own stupidity, a greedy person by greed, an intolerant person by intolerance, an indecisive person by indecision, an irresponsible person by irresponsibility. Such will be punished by their own destructive qualities. The main thing is that the victim draws conclusions from this and it is an incentive to correct the root cause and basis of the failures, rather than looking for the culprit of his own stupidity in "random events" and other people. You guessed once, second time, third time zeroed in and hit your own self-confidence with your own stupidity and predictability. Consequently, all your previous guesses at the distance equals zero. Trading is a probability game. It is impossible to guess everything because of the many components of pricing. It is possible not to guess, but to know the more and less potentially realizable probabilities because of certain market conditions. No one knows the exact future, there is only an assumed more likely future and the work that leads to it. The basis of profit/loss is what you are in the here and now. Your knowledge and experience are projected onto the chart. The symbiosis of these two parameters makes or loses money in practice. Read these 6 points carefully: 1) The first problem most marketers have is that everyone wants to get a lot of money in the moment and, most importantly, without effort. That's what most people want, so it's not rational or dangerous to satisfy their desires. 2) The second problem is that they can't be "out of the market" until they find a good entry point. "Fear of missing out" does its destructive work. 3) The third problem is, of course, the disease from "childhood," which manifests itself in adulthood. People begin to collect various crypto coins, endowing them with different values according to their beliefs and, above all, their desires. 4) The fourth problem is greed, insatiability combined with inexperience. People don't want to protect their profits, they want more and more and more and more and more, eventually from greed and inexperience they completely (more greedy) or partially (less greedy) nullify themselves. 5) Lack of knowledge and experience. Lack of desire to develop and learn. The less experienced a market participant is, the more confident he is in his competence and "screams text". 6) The sixth most serious problem - laziness. It manifests itself in the fact that few people want to work, everyone wants to have. Under ideas are captured my trading ideas for this trading pair over the past 3 years. Most of them are previously closed trade ideas. There are 3 learning ideas that I have shown on this trading pair (based on publicly published simple trading ideas) .
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by SpartaBTC
18
Bearish Divergence on the weekly chart !Hello Traders 🐺, Over the past few days, we've witnessed a massive market dump. Interestingly, just one day before BTC's drop, I published an idea predicting the downturn, yet it received the lowest engagement I've ever had! Why? Because most people were expecting a continuous pump. But here's the truth: even in a bull market, price corrections are inevitable — that's how the market functions. 📉 So, if you want to stay ahead of the game and not miss the next big move, make sure you're following me for more insights! 🚀 Despite the recent dump, I still believe that Altcoins are about to experience a massive pump. But why? As you can see in the chart, there's a significant bearish divergence on the weekly time frame. And as many of you know, the higher the time frame, the more reliable the signals, so a bearish divergence on the weekly is something we can really count on. Secondly, we have a double top formation near a key resistance zone, which is a strong indication that a reversal could be near. Thirdly, we’re seeing a rising wedge pattern, which is another bearish sign. So, in my opinion, all these factors together strongly suggest that we’re about to witness a major correction in the BTC.D chart — and a huge pump in the Altcoin market! 🚀 🐺 Stay sharp, trade smart! – KIU_COIN 🐺
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Kiu_Coin
2
Strategy Development: Price Levels & Time ProcessingI’m currently working on a trading script designed to identify optimal stop-loss and take-profit levels based on market structure and volatility. Day TF Short entry: $101,460.15 with a stop-loss at $105,330.08 TP levels tested down to $82,110 Despite it played out ok I still need additional validation that will come with time. Point is to keep enhancing the script so most of the time price does not pass 5th take profit considering latest periods between consecutive Long & Short signals. 3H TF Alternatively, I picked different timeframe for another layer of performance evaluation from another perspective. Long entry: $84,201.84 with a stop-loss at $82,967.61 TP levels tested up to $90,372.97 Blue TP means the closing price reached the level, while gray - did not. ⏱ TIMING Many traders focus on price levels but overlook the time duration between long and short signals. However, understanding how long trends last is just as crucial as knowing where price might go. Why does this matter? If your strategy enters a long trade too soon after a short trade, you might be catching a dead-cat bounce rather than a real reversal. If your signals occur too frequently, the system may be overreacting to market noise rather than identifying meaningful trend shifts. Tracking the duration of trend phases helps you align with market cycles rather than getting whipsawed by short-term fluctuations. The results will be viewed carefully and will be used to improve the logic (code-wise) for better trend detection; stop-loss placements to avoid unnecessary stop-outs; refined entry timing. The end goal is to make the strategy learn from both aspects of past data - price and time to completely eliminate a need for any user inputs. Please, let me know: How you incorporate time-based analysis (other than fixed cycles) into your trading. If you would want this strategy available for public.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by fract
4
It's Time for Bitcoin's Future Trend!As I mentioned in my post yesterday, there was a possibility of the price dropping to the 0.5 Fibonacci zone, from which I expected active buying followed by a trend reversal for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The price of Bitcoin has dropped to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, and this was enough to trigger a reaction. We’ve already seen a +2,000 price bounce, and there may still be some volatility with price movements up and down, but a drop below 82k is unlikely. I’m waiting for the daily candle to close, after which I will consider my strategy for opening a position.
Long
by GarateTradeCrypto