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Economic Cycles

AAPL 1.22.2025 IdeaMy assessment is a fair price on the stock of $230 per share. AAPL now sitting at $222.5, I believe there is a high probability for a 5% up move within a few months. Entry would be favorable if AAPL =< $220. I would enter direct shares here. AAPL is of those companies that will be affected by tariffs. However, AAPL has benefitted from expanding its services economy. In other words, AAPL is not reliant on iPhone sales to drive their FCF. This opportunity is one for those looking for a discount on a MAG 7. Just be patient! But be flexible and anticipate further disruptions.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by SRNceo
Possible downward breakout of $USDT.D as start of altcoin seasonThe Order Blocks may indicate that the often canceled Altcoin-Season could be imminent CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D dominance is struggling to break through the crucial Order Block in Chart 1 between 3.7%-4% to the downside If the breakout to the downside happens, nothing should hinder the Altcoin-Season 🙏 There is usually an inverse relationship between USDT dominance and altcoins. If the dominance falls, crypto degens exchange their stable token for altcoins and their prices rise Another positive sign is that CRYPTOCAP:ETH relative to CRYPTOCAP:BTC in BINANCE:ETHBTC chart faces two significant Order Blocks around the 0.03 and 0.025 ranges from 2021 If one of them holds and should an upward reversal occur here, CRYPTOCAP:ETH could lead altcoins upward as in past cycles
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by OfficerDonut
$TIA: Ready to Breakout After 5 Months of Consolidation? I think LSE:TIA is finally primed for a breakout after spending the last five months consolidating in the tight $4–$6 range. The lows have been respected multiple times, and we're now seeing the buildup of potential for a significant move. I’m eyeing an entry at $4.85, which would be a perfect spot to load up if we get a retrace into that zone. If it does dip back there, it's a max bid scenario for me. However, I'm also prepared to jump in a bit higher if needed, especially if I get left behind as the breakout gains momentum. It's a balancing act between waiting for the perfect entry and not missing out on the move entirely. Let’s see how it plays out—I'm keeping a close watch!
Long
by ZelfTrade
BTC - Time cycles unlock some key insights BTC is very clearly able to be carved out into time cycles, or 'Hurst' cycles, which are regular appearing patterns of units of time which can help us in informing price action. Looking at BTC, it's clearly cutting into cycles of about 40 days with the price action within each cycle very clearly going in either direction - apart from one! Looking at the most recent cycle we just entered into, the price action is likely to rise and continue to rise until either the middle of the cycle (target) or the end of the cycle (vertical line). So please add Hurst cycles to your cocktail of methods for understanding 'when' an event is likely to take place, or at least give you a marginally higher percentage probability. Good luck. Follow and share for more.
Long
by cryptechcapital
The JSE Top40 Medium-Term ViewThe JSE Top40 is at a point of a relief rally though the bigger picture is that of a yearly decline. So the expectation is that we can rally while expecting price to be capped by the black trendline, we either make it there or we turn down before reaching this point. Longer term I expect price to trend towards the green support line. Since we must breach this line, My interest will be on the grey horizontal line for support. A t the back of my mind is the COVID drop scenario, this is where we get extreme moves downwards representing a continuation of current cycle, otherwise without that scenario we would have a tough quarter one and two of 2025. We have been in recession like conditions and so far, we could be going through a silent recession whereby conditions point that way but the economic measures do not confirm, does not help that US being leader in market sentiment has had war excursions to affect the indicators as well as constant revisions of the unemployment figures. The coming of Trump might cause war spend to decrease unraveling the dire state of the economy. It is best for traders to be aware of such a scenario and effect on the markets.
JSE:J200
by runyamhere
EUR USD - the battle of parityG'day traders, Welcome back to a new trading year. First up, i'll be taking a look at the EURO/USD as it is still in a strong downward to the right pattern respecting the strong curve of the weekly trendline. Please see below the Daily and weekly charts marked up. Follow along the video and hope it assists with your trading. I'll be looking for sells upon daily closes, weekly set and forget supply limits. Demand limits. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Previous charts Daily Chart Weekly Chart Updated in line with the video: Daily Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. LVPA MMXXV
Short
by LupaCapital
Outlook for the next weeks (i love these XD)Right now, i am looking for some kind of pullback before going up. I have marked 3 most important zones and i will look forward to trade from them. But everything can happen so we as a traders need to stay flexible. The Fundamental side still looks great. But the question is whether inflation will rise and unemployment will fall, as this could mean slowing growth and postponing further rate cuts. Wages have also increased, which could mean that there is a greater demand for employees, or there is a great demand on the market for goods and services, which could mean increasing inflation. On the other hand PMI looks great and CPI + PPI is neutral. Tell me whats your analysys, let me know in the comments. I am open to every point of view to the situation and I am happy to learn :)
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Filip_Kozak
Litecoin Breakout: Potential Gains and ProfitsAlright, let’s talk about Litecoin and why I think it’s gearing up for something big. The market's been showing solid gains across the altcoin sector , and Litecoin is definitely catching my eye right now. Here’s the deal: the LTCBTC pair looks like it’s finally bottomed out and is breaking out of a two-year downtrend line . If that sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve seen this before. Back in 2017 , Litecoin broke out of a similar downtrend, and the result? LTCUSD skyrocketed from $8 to $365 in just a year . Fast forward to today — 2023 and 2024 have been all about consolidation in the $100–$47 range . Now that we’ve broken through $135 , 2025 could be a massive year for Litecoin. My main target is $365 , but I’ve got my eye on some optional targets at $630 and even $1,300 . Why those higher targets? Simple. Looking at how the LTCBTC pair has performed in the past, even a small upward move there has historically triggered huge gains in LTCUSDT . Now, let’s break it down further. Litecoin’s price history shows recurring patterns — ascending triangles from 2015 to 2017 and now again from 2018 to 2025 . And these patterns play out in phases: 🔴 Downtrend 🟡 Consolidation 🟢 Breakout We’ve already seen this cycle happen three times — 2014 to 2018 , 2018 to 2021 , and now 2021 to 2025 . It’s all lining up again. The key now is to watch the details . Resistance levels, price action , and how the breakout unfolds will be crucial. If Litecoin follows through, it could be gearing up for a move that redefines its place in the market . Stay tuned — this could get really exciting.🍻 Some of past LTC charts:
CRYPTO:LTCUSD
by ArShevelev
7
Is Bitcoin Heading for $5M? An Analysis Using Fibonacci ChannelsThe report covers Bitcoin's price movements from its inception in 2012 to January 2025. By employing a logarithmic scale, percentage-based changes over time are emphasized, making it easier to identify growth trends and long-term movements. Fibonacci Channel The Fibonacci channel serves as the primary tool for identifying potential support and resistance levels. The parallel lines of the channel are spaced according to Fibonacci ratios and applied to price action to predict future movements. The report highlights that the current price ($101,419) is approaching the upper range of the channel. Price Targets The analysis proposes three speculative price targets for Bitcoin based on the Fibonacci channel: Conservative Target: $271,117 Moderate Target: $1,357,044 Aggressive Target: $5,045,505 These levels are plotted at the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, reflecting potential resistance zones in the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin. Bullish Long-Term Perspective The upward slope of the Fibonacci channel confirms the long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin has maintained its position within this channel for over a decade strengthens its technical validity. The proximity of the current price to the channel's upper bound suggests potential volatility in the near term, with possibilities of either a breakout or a correction. Price Target Feasibility While the speculative targets indicate optimism, their exponential nature should be viewed with caution: Conservative Target: Plausible within a long-term context if Bitcoin's adoption and market dynamics sustain growth. Moderate and Aggressive Targets: These levels assume substantial market capitalization expansion, requiring significant adoption, institutional interest, and macroeconomic conditions conducive to growth. Critical Considerations Technical vs. Fundamental Factors The analysis is purely technical, overlooking fundamental elements such as: Adoption rates (e.g., Lightning Network growth, institutional investment). Regulatory developments (e.g., government interventions, taxation policies). Macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rates, economic stability). These factors could significantly influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Volatility and Risk Bitcoin's notorious volatility makes long-term projections uncertain. Historical data reveals frequent deviations from expected patterns, meaning Fibonacci-based targets might not materialize as anticipated. Logarithmic Scale and Weekly Timeframe The logarithmic scale provides a useful perspective for long-term percentage changes but may obscure short-term fluctuations. The weekly timeframe reinforces a macro view, but short-term traders may find limited actionable insights. Conclusion The report presents a compelling long-term bullish case for Bitcoin, using the Fibonacci channel to project speculative price targets. While the technical analysis is insightful, reliance solely on Fibonacci levels is risky in a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency. Investors should supplement this analysis with fundamental insights and remain cautious of speculative targets. This analysis underscores Bitcoin's potential for growth but also highlights the need for diversified strategies and vigilance in navigating the dynamic crypto market. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advisor. This analysis is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading involves risk, and you should consult with a financial professional before making any decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SigmaSignals
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking
Why the great depression will be a walk in the park in compareImagine a world where these mounting losses ripple through the banking system. Depositors begin to lose confidence, causing a tidal wave of withdrawals. Banks, scrambling to meet liquidity demands, are forced to sell these securities at a steep discount, further compounding their losses. This feedback loop is the financial equivalent of lighting a match in a fireworks factory. For society, the consequences could be seismic: 1. Economic Turmoil: Banks are the lifeblood of credit and investment. When their balance sheets implode, lending grinds to a halt, smothering businesses and consumers alike. Small businesses, the backbone of the economy, face closures, while unemployment surges. 2. Housing Market Collapse: Mortgages are bundled into securities. The fallout in unrealized losses could spill into the housing market, as banks tighten credit, driving homeownership out of reach for many and forcing others into foreclosure. 3. Pension and Retirement Pain: Many pensions are tied to the financial markets. As losses deepen, retirees could see their savings dwindle, leading to widespread financial insecurity among the elderly. 4. Social Unrest: Economic hardship has historically been a catalyst for societal unrest. As livelihoods are threatened, the already fraying social fabric could snap, leading to protests, polarization, and even political instability. In short, this chart isn’t just a picture of accounting nightmares—it’s a warning siren for a potential societal earthquake. And the clock is ticking.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Iam_Phasma