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Economic Cycles

BTC and the previous three US Election DatesThis charts the dates of the previous three US Elections (2012, 2016 and 2020) on a log chart, with price on the horizontal axis at daily candle close. As you can see, once price breaks above (sometimes next day, as in 2020, sometimes a week or more later, as in 2016 and in 2012) price has never returned - ever. Plotted are the time and percentage difference from election date to cycle ATH. On average it's 387 days apart. If things play out this time in a similar fashion we can expect this week into mid next week to be the final time BTC will be in the mid 60k per coin - ever.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Jaekus
2
BTC.D Keep calm, don't lose your headThe market will do what it always does—play with our emotions. We're all eagerly anticipating an altseason, right? But the market will test everyone’s patience, so it's wiser to stick with spot purchases and use DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) for entry. Don’t give up, and above all, don’t sell now—you’ve weathered a tough bear market. Dominance is set to decline, just as it has in previous cycles within these Fibonacci parameters. Stay calm, keep your emotions in check, and remember: patience and strategy are key.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Jaytradermb
BTC Swing Points (Linear Scale) ISTRUCTURAL AWARENESS This analysis seeks to provide structural insights by identifying key levels and understanding historical price patterns to anticipate the limits potential future scale of price movements. Indicators in use: I'd start with retrieving HH LH HL LL points by script I've designed based on Pivot Points to be as aware as possible of key levels of the historic structure: Adding altered Zig Zag that shows only percentage change of the swings. This would be another layer of the historic pattern capture: BOTTOMS: Wave analysis from '22 - '24 Logarithmic Trendline: It looks like a curve on linear scale, which we will use to link the composite but significant lows and extend it to the right. This gives a sense of a low levels which we assume would be hard to break anytime soon because of the price is a range away: Breaking below and staying under that level for more than a few bars would signal a bearish trend, depending on emerging patterns at smaller scales as price nears the curve. Since a Double Top pattern could develop, an additional line curve aligned with the HL and passing through the next bottom (black dashed curve) is necessary. If price breaches the main curve’s orange dotted line, it may descend toward the secondary curve, a significant lower boundary derived from historical curvature. A break below this level would require an even stronger bearish effort to actually keep it below because of high volatility and existing frequency of reversals. Adding short-term trendlines which would be easier to break (Red and dark orange dotted continuation of the lines) TOPS: To anticipate how high it can grow, we'll connect the extreme tops as well. 2021 ATH ➡︎ 2024 ATH 2021 TOPS 2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP Price breaking above "2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP" is a sign to switch to log scale where identical distance resembles identical % change to capture a bigger scale move relative to the structure.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
SMCI *Huge Update*I know my charts are not pretty and I look pretty stupid a lot of the times. BUT. I noticed something very strange with the time cycle charting tool. I was measuring the tops and bottoms to find out that the bottoming process on SMCI is scheduled to happen just before NVDA earnings. Meaning... if SMCI follows the cycle we will see a huge dump before the 22nd-23rd of May. Then, after all retail investors are shaken out and people fear the recession/earnings, it will rocket up to make one more all time high run :) High chance of being wrong but I love to share my ideas with you all! Let me know what you see and lets talk about it.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by LeapTrades
33
"STLA" (Stellantis) Buy Opportunity at Strong SupportTicker: NYSE:STLA (Stellantis) Long Entry: Near current support level Target: All-Time High (ATH) , could be splitted Stop-Loss: Just below current LOW Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:24 Analysis: Stellantis (STLA) has pulled back to a strong historical support level, aligning with an old bullish trendline that has served as a base for previous upward movements. This confluence of technical factors indicates a solid area for potential long entries with limited downside. The current setup offers an exceptional risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:24, as we're positioned near support with a clear path to the last higher high at the ATH level. As long as support holds, a move towards ATH is likely, fueled by a reactivation of the prior bullish momentum. Key Notes: Risk management is crucial: The close stop-loss limits downside exposure, and the target offers substantial reward potential. Confirmation on support strength would reinforce the setup, adding confidence to the upside. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NYSE:STLALong
by PattRec
2
Bitcoin's Bull Run Now Has Price TargetsThis was a historic Two Month Close . For only the 6th time in Bitcoin's History we have a Green Star Candle on the MRI Indicator. All Prior Green Stars have lead to bull runs of at least 6 months and gained over 100%. All but one led to MRI Tops with the only one that failed to reach it's MRI Top (with Down Arrow) would have been a 2nd consecutive MRI Top, which would have been an unprecedented and unreasonably extended bull run. We Also have a Cup and Handle Target of $105,000 based on the $45,000 dip in Q3 of 2022 & we have a similar target of $102,000 from the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension which has also been achieved quickly in all prior times of All time High Breaks coming out of a Bear Market. * All 3 Targets mention above are between the $100,000 - $140,000 Range, which is VERY Conservative for 2025 as the 4 Year Halving Cycle enters its most Bullish Phase! Thank You, Tone Vays
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ToneVays
3
NAS100 Daily outlook | Bias BullishI was looking for Nas100 characteristics around elections on a daily timeframe. I found some similarities: 2016 Market Top (4906) was 34 bars before the E-day, it never came back to the same levels. 2020 Market Top (12467, 2.54x) was 44 bars before the E-day, it broke down these levels in Jun-Dec 2022. 2024 Market Top (20758, 1.665x) was 83 bars before the E-day. Last Friday before the election seems important in both (16/20) cases as it became a major support for the next cycle. IMO, Friday would be bearish but S1(19600), and S2(19290) seem like important levels for the uptrend to sustain, Friday should not go beyond S1. With a bullish Bias, I would wait for Friday to close and then like to do either of the following: Instant order on green candle close with stoploss on S2 Buy Stop on the market top break with SL under S1 Would love to know what you think.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by hunainbinsajid
1
A huge Cup with a handle on Bitcoin after 3 yearsFor those who understand the cycle, it's no surprise. For those who are not there yet, this is a very strong pattern, and considering Bitcoin will move to new highs this is a powerful indication of the bullish continuation. It took 1085 Days to do it! (3 years without 10 days). The tip of the last bull run initiated it and if you don't know what that means, you should join my Discord, YouTube, and Substack. Buckle up, fill your bags, and enjoy the last year of this bull run! It's NFA and DYOR
Long
by estimyth
1
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges. Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength. For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end. Technical Overview of USD/JPY: Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area. At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level. A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move. Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at: - Slightly under 150, - Followed by further support at 147, - And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
2025 BTC.D - History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often RhymesJust thinking through this idea in regards to BTC.D In the last cycle BTC.D ramped up to consistently being above 60%, after its June 2020 lows, in the 4th week of October 2020. It ran up to 100% by the end of 2020 and then proceeded to roll over and fall back below 60% by the 3rd week of January 2021. Altseason started at the beginning of February 2021 with ETH & large cap projects. I'd like to think that Altseason officially ended by the end of May 2021 with a wild frenzy into memes (Doge, Shiba, Akita) setting new ATHs. If we're applying that same logic to this cycle then... BTC.D. will begin its ascent towards 100% dominance by passing 60% by the end of October 2024 (as of today, it's October 30th) and then start to roll over the 2nd-ish to 3rd-ish week of January 2025, to start the New Year! From there we can estimate that Altseason will start sometime around the 1st-ish week to 2nd-ish week of February 2025. It will last until, I'm thinking, the end of April 2025 to middle-ish of May 2025 (at the latest). Additional Thoughts: We may get a blowoff top scenario by end of September 2025 / October 2025... but that's TBD. I'm not sure a double peak is guaranteed or in the cards this cycle. So, it may be wise to leave something in your bag headed into the end of year (Q3 / Q4), just so you can say mama we made it. IDK - just thoughts and not financial advice. Resource & Thoughts Consider the Path to Altseason by Secrets of Crypto Would definitely have to consider macro, m2 & m3 and the US presidential election
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by jamiroquaicrypto
POLKADOT COMPRESSION ABOUT TO EXPLODEHey traders! It's been a while since my last post in here. Despite that, I've been trading and charting like I always did. Anyways, this is why I think CRYPTOCAP:DOT is pumping on the next months: - As the rest of #alts , Polkadot has been on a compression structure since the manipulation on August. In my opinion, we are talking about a accumulation that will lead the price to reach the local ATH (11.00 - 12.00 USD) - Context is great. #Trump seems to be the winner of US elections next week. Don't take me wrong, I'm not a fan of #DOT and I think its time passed by. However, I don't think its crazy to see the #token dancing around 20.00 - 30.00 USD on the upcoming months.
COINBASE:DOTUSDLong
by Ometrading
3
$TOTAL Market Cap 259 Day BREAKOUT!At last, the Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap has a BREAKOUT from the 259 Day trend! This was the lagging chart I was watching to confirm the next leg up in the bull market. The 20DMA has also crossed the 200DMA for the first time in 12 months. This is a SUPER bullish signal, as you can see what occurred last time in October 2023. With less than 1 week away until Donald Trump is declared President of the United States, and the FOMC announcing another round of rate cuts the following day, we can expect a lot of volatility in the market. The 20DMA should act as a good support on the way up. The final signal will be when the Fed announces they will stop selling securities from their balance sheet. This will signal a new round of quantitative easing, and complete risk-on. Tick-tock MFers. Position accordingly!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by jonnieking
4
Bull Market Begins NowFor several years now, I've been tracking variations of this chart, and Bitcoin's adherence to its four-year cycle remains striking. Every bear market, people speculate that the cycle has been “broken,” yet Bitcoin consistently follows its historical trajectory, nearly to the day. This pattern isn’t directly impacted by external events but is subtly shaped by the U.S. macroeconomic landscape, which can either dampen or amplify its moves. From each halving, we typically see about 154 days of consolidation before Bitcoin breaks the all-time high of the previous cycle. Technically, we did breach the previous high briefly due to ETF-driven news, though it was just a wick. Now, we’ve just tapped that previous all-time high again, but it’s possible we’ll need to cool off and consolidate until the election before we see another major move. During this time, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) tends to rise for another month, after which we often witness a significant rotation into altcoins as “old money” seeks higher volatility. With the upcoming election and the possibility of a Trump victory, there’s likely to be renewed enthusiasm and optimism for crypto markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by proestever
ATH from Historic Average PerspectiveHISTORIC AVERAGING The point of historic averaging is to provide a long-term perspective on an asset’s price by calculating an average that considers all available historical data. The simplest is Arithmetic All-Time Average PineScript: ta.cum(close) / (bar_index + 1) To get it we must add up all closing prices and divide by number of bars. (Bar_index + 1 because bar_index starts with 0, which can mess up calculation!) It provides us with some useful information: Long-Term Trend Identification Current Price Contextualization - point of reference to assess how high is the current price than its historical Average Exposes Long-Term Support levels - the historic average often aligns with significant support (True for Bitcoin particularly) Since Arithmetic Averaging is more venerable to lagging, it made a significant gap from the lows: If the weights weren't identical, the gap distance would have been less. So we can use other method of averaging for more precise alignments of the cycle Lows Weighted Historic Average: This method assigns increasing weights to each bar over time, prioritizing later candles even more significantly. This method is particularly useful when you want to view the trend as influenced by more recent activity but still considering the entire data set. It may help in understanding price dynamics under growing market volume or volatility, as recent bars affect the average more prominently. With such weighting method applied, the historic average better indicates long-term support levels making them more reliable to draw a relationship between current price and the Historic Average. This post is not even about the rhyme of Weighted Historical Average with cycle lows. If we divide closing price by WHA, we would get an idea how many times Bitcoin has been higher than the average during the times establishing All Time High. Given the current uptrend, which shows potential to develop into a full-scale bull run, we can anticipate the next long-term ATH by monitoring the Close/Historic Average. As this metric rises and breaks above shaded levels, it signals continued momentum. Conversely, if it crosses below the first shaded range, this may indicate that a long-term ATH has been set, suggesting the market could be primed for the next significant correction phase.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
$GME about to blowThe last time the MA200 ascended from a golden cross was in September 2020 and it is currently ascending from a golden cross that started in May 2024. Looking at the first volume spikes starting in September 2020, if we are repeating now and the shorts haven't closed we should see about 4 times the volume now because of the split. Looking at the volume in May, it seems about right. Not advice, only my opinion, you must do your own DD and what is best for you. You only live once.
NYSE:GMELong
by vanzylik