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Economic Cycles

The B-History of Bitcoin (BTC)Chart Breakdown: Bull Market Phase (Green Section) Measures the time taken from the cycle bottom to the peak. Displays the percentage gain from the lowest point of the cycle to the highest. Shows the number of bars (days) it took for the market to reach its peak. Bear Market Phase (Red Section) Highlights the correction from the peak back down to the next cycle bottom. Shows the percentage decline and the time taken for the market to complete its downward trend. Includes volume metrics to provide insight into trading activity. Full Market Cycle (Entire Duration) Captures the entire period from the start of the previous bull market, through the peak, and back to the bear market bottom. Displays the total number of days for a complete market cycle. Helps to visualize how Bitcoin's market cycles repeat over time. The chart offers a clear perspective on Bitcoin's historical price movements, emphasizing cycle duration and price trends, making it a useful tool for analyzing past patterns and potential future cycles.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by BANXXD
1
The Daily Edge - 21st Feb 2025Bullish Momentum Stalls as Shorts Remain in Focus Market Overview Bullish price action continued on Thursday, with the daily candle printing a higher high and higher low range. Price closed above the previous bearish candles, maintaining the overall bullish structure. However, price remains within the consolidation range, with highs near 2940 and lows around 2860. The short bias remains intact, and we are actively managing short trades currently in play. Key Observations Price reacted off the imbalance High 2920 today created by the recent push higher, moving from external to internal range liquidity. Price is stalling around key levels despite maintaining a bullish structure. The 50% retracement level of the latest daily swing sits below Friday’s low 2915 Shorts remain active but are at risk as bullish momentum continues within the range. Our Next Steps Manage existing shorts and monitor for signs of reversal or continuation. Watch consolidation boundaries at 2940 highs and 2860 lows for breakout or reversal signals. Observe price action leading into Monday for potential adjustments to the strategy. Reflection Prompt How can managing trades within a consolidation help refine entries and exits, especially when price action begins to stall? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingEdge #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #Discipline #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PipsnPaper
LINK | Wyckoff Method | Phase 3 IMPULSE WAVELINK shows a very clear Wyckoff Method Cycle from the macro timeframe: This is typically what a Wyckoff Method cycle looks like from a macro perspective: When we look at Chainlink from the macro and compare it to the previous cycle, it seems likely that LINK goes up in "impulse waves". We now have Wave 3 to look forward to, which may likely play out over a few months - as did the previous cycle. ________________ COINBASE:LINKUSD
Long
by CryptoCheck-
[ TimeLine ] Gold 12-13 February 2025Hello everyone, I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades: February 12-13, 2025 and/or February 12, 2025 We will wait for the price range from these candles to form as indicated with blue box. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 40-50 pips. If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
CYCLE 4 | Price %Change Extension from 20W SMABTC PRICE %Δ EXTENSION FROM 20W SMA ANALYSIS Similar to previous Analysis looking at 'Price %Change Extensions' from moving averages (see links below), we take a look at the respective relationship BTC has held with the 20W SMA over its existence. HISTORICAL BEHAVIOUR Observable in Prior cycles BTC has topped and bottom out at High Points and Low Point of this relationship. We can see over cycle periods the highs are sloping downward (indicating ATH of future cycles diminishing in nature is historically in line with this relationship). This is observable via the downward sloping green zone connecting cycle peaks in the BTC Price %Δ Extension from 20W SMA. For cycle bottoms (excluding the bloodbath of cycle 0), generally we see these occur ~around the 80% Price %Δ Extension region (see the red box below). CYCLE 3 VARIATIONS | THIS TIME WAS DIFFERENT It is notable that Cycle 3 was the first cycle where the high and low in this relationship occurred before the price All Time Low and High of Cycle 3, and in this instance the indicator displayed more divergent behavior (suggesting price momentum is reversing) with spikes of a lower high and higher low of this relationship indicating cycle 3 ATH and ATL. CYCLE 4 ATH TAKEAWAYS * A revisit of the Green Zone has historically coincided with a significant top or cycle ATH with prior price cycles. * If Cycle 3 behavior is the new norm, then a revisit of the green area may indicate price momentum reversal. This divergent behavior indicated BTC was setting the final ATH for cycle 3. * Either scenarios may play out again in Cycle 4 and may be a usual relationship to use with confluence of other relationships to identify Price / Market timing to take final profits. See Relevant Previous Posts Below
BNC:BLX
by Brodie
Short gold againAs I mentioned in my previous article, I anticipated that gold might pull back to the 2930-2925 region, or even extend to the 2910 region, during today or tomorrow's New York trading session. Clearly, gold has retraced as expected and hit my target zone of 2930-2925. Our short position around 2954 has once again yielded a very favorable profit, totaling 270 pips. Currently, gold has experienced a slight rebound, but it’s evident that the bullish momentum is weakening while bearish control is strengthening. After the accelerated short squeeze phase, 2955 may become the high for this stage. Moreover, as geopolitical risks decrease, the bullish momentum for gold further weakens, making it likely that gold could further dip and test the 2920-2910 support zone. Therefore, for current short-term trading, I believe it might be a good idea to consider shorting gold again in the 2935-2940 region.Bros, will you follow me and short gold again? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader_Marvin
The Daily Edge - 20th Feb 2025Indecision at Previous ATH as Shorts Remain in Focus Market Overview Wednesday’s daily candle printed a doji, testing the previous ATH and 2940 consolidation high. Entered shorts at these levels, took an initial loss, but considering re-engagement today. While this goes against the Monthly and Weekly trends, the Daily timeframe shows indecision, reinforcing a short bias for now. Key Observations Daily doji signals indecision – price failed to break convincingly above 2940. 4H remains bullish – trend strength contradicts daily indecision. POI for longs at 2920 – bullish close above Friday’s bearish PA suggests support below Wednesday’s low. Shorts remain in focus – targeting 2865 but will re-evaluate if invalidated. Our Next Steps Manage short positions, watching for reaction toward 2865. Remain flexible – exit shorts if structure shifts, reassess for re-entry. Monitor 4H structure & POI at 2920 – if price finds support, consider a shift to longs. Reflection Prompt How do you balance short-term trade setups with higher timeframe trends while managing risk effectively? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PipsnPaper
The Daily Edge - 19th Feb 2025Trading the Consolidation: Positioning for a Potential Reversal Market Overview Tuesday remained within consolidation, and closing above Friday’s open. Preferred long entries remain near 2860 for better risk-reward. Midweek reversal potential in play, positioning for shorts at 2940 highs. Key Observations 2940 tested, but not an ideal long entry – 2860 remains the better zone. Entered shorts at 2940, targeting the consolidation low. 1H Market Maker Sell Model aligns with short bias. Our Next Steps Manage short positions – Adjust based on price behavior. Monitor midweek reversal potential – Look for confirmation. Remain open to invalidation – A break above 2940 requires reassessment. Reflection Prompt How does recognizing Market Maker models alongside higher time frame structures improve conviction in trade setups? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PipsnPaper
NQ - Wednesday FrameworkLast week NQ ran out its external range high. Tuesday ran out Monday (check 4h) high and low and closed bearish. On the 4h and 1h, we have a cisd to the downside. Paired with ES smt at the highs (check 1h). Measure the manipulation leg on the 1h for STD extensions and targets align with daily fvg. This is giving me evidence of a possible short term retracement delivery cycle in price. We could see Wednesday offer a continuation lower. What I would need to see to confirm shorts: If Asia and London initially trade higher above new day and midnight opening price, then the intraday framework is setting up for a classic sell day. This is ideal for shorts. Either NY Continuation or NY Reversal daily profile is what I'm hunting. I need to see a 15m cisd. That would confirm the daily profile. If Asia and London trade lower first, then conditions are not ideal for intraday framework I'm looking for and need to be cautious of shorts. If Asia and London consolidate, then I will wait for the external range to be swept during NY session. A 15m cisd will confirm direction after sweep on liquidity and I will target opposing liquidity. If 4h fvg is closed though, that confirms ifvg and shorts will no longer be consider.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by CEOTraders
Research on Timing & VolatilityThe convergence of the linear extension of volatility bands toward a specific point is a phenomenon rooted in market equilibrium dynamics and statistical projection. When volatility contracts, it often signals a transition from a high-activity phase to a period of consolidation, where price fluctuations narrow, leading to a temporary state of balance between buying and selling pressures. This focal point may represent a fair market value, an equilibrium price level, or a statistically significant mean, derived from moving averages, regression models, or other analytical techniques. Additionally, the convergence could indicate an area where price is expected to stabilize before a potential breakout, as volatility tends to move in cycles of expansion and contraction. In many cases, such a point acts as a precursor to future market movement, suggesting that once compression reaches a critical level, price action may soon undergo a directional shift, either resuming a trend or initiating a new one. RESEARCH I used linear generated extensions FREMA (Volatility bands based on Buying & Selling Pressure) on BTCUSD (because 24h) to carry out a quick experiment on 15mTF in order to observe graphically specific properties of volatility. As the lines diverge from their intersection, a key question emerges: how will price react to this expansion, where angles defined by selling and selling pressure are inverted? Will the market take this as a signal for a breakout, surging in one direction with renewed momentum, or will it hesitate, moving sideways as traders search for confirmation? The contraction leading to this moment suggests a buildup of pressure — now released into a phase where volatility returns. If buyers take control, price could rally sharply, breaking through resistance levels. Conversely, if sellers dominate, a sharp decline might unfold. The widening of the bands signals the beginning of a new phase where direction and strength will soon become clear. Most importantly I'll establish how price behaves when it encounters those lines.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by fract
Gold Bulls Are Insatiable—Is a Breakout Above 2940 Next?Yesterday, Gold continued its rebound from Friday’s sell-off. Although I expected a new leg down from my 2920-2925 sell zone, the price exceeded that level and retested the all-time high zone for the third time in just eight days. This type of price action—strong reversals after a sell-off—could indicate that bulls are not done yet, making a breakout above 2940 likely. At this point, I’ve cut my losses and exited the market, waiting to see if the price confirms the potential for a new all-time high this week. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
9