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Economic Cycles

BTC/USD is approaching FIB-EXT highest level 1.618 (95,603)As per the price action the whole crypto market is bullish on bigger time frame 1st probablity Currently I am expecting BITCOIN will reach its all time High $95,603 on the basis of Fibonacci extension 1.618 tracing from previous impulsive movement in Feb to march Bullish cycle,on the weekly time frame chart bitcoin can take a small retracement towards Imbalance in premium zone ($74,000 to 80,000) If the bulls whales dominate the market, then we can another impulsive bullish cycle toward $120,000 2nd Probability Price reject from the 1.618 ($95,603) region and took the liquidity of the FVG and Value area high and tap in to the OB in Discount region this will be high gain and long cycle towards $150,000 because retailers and big whales will take a part .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ak7119660
1
FWOG Buying Zone! Major Listings Coming Soon!but its just a fwog Im giving you a new range of entry. Currently: Price: $0.52 MarketCap: 519.0 Million Holders: 44.7K 1. I had previously drawn my analysis of fwog with Green rectangle areas are movements of expansion with the RSI peaking above the 70 level as price goes up and brings in more demand. As buy orders gets exhausted the RSI goes down following the Yellow Arrow. 2. Point of this post is analyzing a entry zone! Look at the Orange section that is the Demand zone. This is the first full range for FWOG this is the best entry you have in the last few months. Buy in now before it really takes off, major listings coming, community is growing, normies coming in. Check the Fib levels: Anything under the 0.5 level is a great buy position. Buy as close to this section as possible. Best Entry is Orange Zone: under $0.50 Entry: $0.45 - $0.56 Target: $0.90 -$1.20 Expected Target, this is a High Conviction Meme Coin. First range, prior to that it was doing higher highs and higher lows. So lets see how high we can go! FWOG has a tendency to have a short range before it takes off again. Days where Solana was red FWOG was up. So if you are expecting a SOL correlation to this coin I would just go ahead and buy. I have been DCAing in this Zone. I've been in since $0.15 - $0.22 zone. Follow the X account. Art work is insane. check holder scan we currently at 44K holders. We can easily get to 60K in a week or two.
Long
by Alt-Frodo
BTC Top for this cycleI recognized a sort of "pattern" for the ROI of BTC, taking the Halving as a starting point and the cycle top as the end. The ROI seems to be reduced by a factor of 0.22-0.27. For this reason I took the ROI of last cycle, starting from the Halving, and reduced it down to 25%. When I apply it to this cycle, it comes out that the top should be at around 169k. To be honest, I will sell earlier than that just to reinvest the earnings into something else (Alts if it is Alt Season). Nonetheless, I believe the top is realistic given the circumstances with new institutions coming in and the adoption of BTC and other Cryptocurrencies for institutional portfolios.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Camilo0524
Greater Fool vs Black SwanOn average, Bitcoin price action time cycles are synchronized in 16 month time frames. Bitcoin halving time cycles are every 4 years. The last 3 halving cycle highs occurred 12 - 16 months afterwards. The greater fool theory is a speculative investing strategy that suggests that investors can profit by buying overvalued assets and selling them to someone else at an even higher price. When the market bubble eventually bursts, investors who bought assets based on the greater fool theory can lose a lot of money. Black swan events can have catastrophic consequences, such as affecting the entire global economy. A black swan event is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but in hindsight appears to have been inevitable. One sign of an impending Black swan event is market participants engaging in over leveraged debt margin trading. What does this all mean? My speculation is that you want to sell Bitcoin now before Black Friday, November 29th 2024 and then buy back before Christmas, December 25th and hold until July 2025 peak. The risk of buying crypto without taking a portion of profits during these high to low cycles is being someone else's exit liquidity and not having the dry powder to buy lower when it drops.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Options360
1
Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin Cycles and XAU"Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin Cycles and XAU 🚀💎 In this analysis, we explore the relationship between the slopes of lines connecting the lows and highs of Bitcoin cycles and gold. A linear correlation emerges, allowing us to estimate the potential peak of Bitcoin’s fourth cycle. Could this relationship hold true in the future? What’s your take on this pattern? 📉 Watch the full video for detailed insights, and share your thoughts in the comments!"
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeEngineering
Alt-season? Bitcoin BTC Dominance past cycles behavior analysis The best way to spot an altseason is looking at the Bitcoin BTC Dominance graph. On this analysis, of the behavior of the Bitcoin BTC Dominance, I spotted in the graph , what happened on the last two cycles, 2017 and 2021, looking back to the 2013 BTC price top. In the analysis I spotted three types of events: All Time High (ATH) Cycle Bottom Attempts to break the past cycle's ATH This brought me some interesting "coincidences" that leads to some insightful predictions. My conclusion, so far, is that an All Time High breakout is a very important moment to the possible alt season beginning. One thing that should be considered is that the current cycle has some different characteristics as, probably in detail, all of them have. This means that maybe it could take some more time to the alt season start, as it did for the ATH be finally broken. One thing I did'n mention in the video is that the BTC dominance has broken a theoretical downtrend line. That said, considering the end of the year calendar change that is a mentally important moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the altseason waits till January to pick up. To be continued...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by PedroGamaTrade
1
Arweave 5x in play (+ relative high risk/reward ratio) This side-by-side chart comparison was crafted to illustrate both the growth potential and risk profile differences between Bitcoin (BTC) and Arweave (AR) over the upcoming months, specifically targeting the period from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. By juxtaposing these two assets, I aimed to highlight how different growth factors and market dynamics play out in each case, despite both assets potentially participating in a broader bull market trend. AR/USDT Chart Analysis KUCOIN:ARUSDT 1. Enhanced Growth Factor for AR: 5x Arweave (AR) exhibits a notable 5x growth factor compared to BTC. This factor reflects AR’s potential to outperform BTC, especially given its relative lower market cap and past explosive moves in bullish cycles. By emphasizing this factor, I intend to highlight AR as a high-risk, high-reward asset, which could see substantial upside if BTC will further grow and consolidate. 2. Decline Factor in Comparison AR also comes with a 2.3x decline factor compared to BTC, underscoring its higher volatility. In periods of short term corrections. . This visual comparison to BTC’s -20% decline serves to remind that while AR may offer amplified gains, it also presents greater downside risks, a trade-off often observed in smaller-cap assets. 3. AR Probable Upper Target by year end 2024-Q1/2025: $49.50 Unlike BTC, AR has a more attainable high target, with $49.50 (a 201.28% increase) labeled as “More Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This optimism is reinforced by AR’s historical ability to rally sharply, especially in bullish conditions. A green checkmark designates this target as a feasible goal within the forecasted timeframe, setting a visual contrast with BTC’s “Less Probable” 270K target. BTC/USDT considerations BYBIT:BTCUSD.P 1. BTC Growth Expectations in before year end (2024): $100K The chart showcases BTC’s historical resilience and expected rally going into Q1 2024. Based on prior movements and momentum analysis, BTC is likely to achieve another 13% growth. This is marked by the first yellow arrow to signal a foundational level for BTC’s next leg up. 2. BTC Less Probable Upper Target for Q1/2025: 270K I’ve marked an ambitious upper target of $270K (a 201.38% increase) as “Less Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This target acknowledges the potential for explosive growth but also emphasizes that reaching this level is less likely within the specified timeframe, given BTC’s recent trend and market constraints. This speculative target is denoted with a red “X” to visually temper expectations around such extreme bullish scenarios. 3. Short-term Decline Risks: As BTC approaches major resistance, there’s a historical correction risk in the near term, estimated at around -20% (from the recent top/ATH). This risk is flagged for potential volatility even as BTC progresses in its bull cycle. This possible retracement emphasizes caution and suitable risk management. Comparative Takeaways Risk and Reward: The comparison visually drives home the point that BTC, as a more established asset, offers relatively stable growth but with a lower ceiling. In contrast, AR presents a far greater potential upside, albeit with significantly higher downside risk, making it a more volatile but rewarding choice. Growth Trajectory and Market Psychology: The BTC chart highlights a cautious optimism for BTC to hit the 100K milestone, while AR’s more ambitious trajectory in the $49.50 range seems within reach due to its previous high volatility. This distinction suggests AR may outperform BTC in a bull cycle, yet demands a more speculative mindset from investors. Visual Indicators for Probability: The use of checkmarks, crosses, and color-coded risk boxes was intentional to provide a quick reference on the probability and risk associated with each target. This approach aims to guide viewers in making informed decisions based on both historical data and projected scenarios. Side note: If BTC reaches higher prices than projected in 2025 it is likely that altcoins and Arweave will increase prices even significantly higher than current targets presented.
Long
by ralphesprit