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Economic Cycles

Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 & Federal Funds Rate 1998 vs 2024A Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 SP:SPX and Federal Funds Rate - 1998 vs. 2024 Historical Context: (the lower chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 1994-2004) 1998: - On September 29, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.25% - The interest cuts fueled the tech bubble, leading to a sharp rise in the S&P 500 over the next two years - By 1999, as the Fed started increasing rates again, this contributed to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 Current Scenario: (the upper chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 2020-2030) 2024: - The federal funds rate now stands between 5.25-5.5% - Anticipation is high for a rate cut on September 18, possibly by 25 or 50 basis points, mirroring the scenario of 1998 - Today, instead of a tech bubble, we're witnessing the emergence of an AI bubble Future Speculations: - AI Bubble Expansion: With the FED potentially lowering rates, this could accelerate the AI bubble, propelling the S&P 500 to new heights over the next 1-2 years - Inflation Concerns: Lower interest rates might reignite inflation by 2025. If history repeats, the Fed might then hike rates again, risking a burst of the AI bubble post-2025 Conclusion: While this analysis draws parallels with historical data, it remains speculative However, the pattern aligns with economic cycles, particularly the 18-year property cycle and the broader economic super cycle that began in 2008 -> Do you think this scenario is realistic?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
2
Inflation, 2yr-bond yield, fund rate, unemployment, recessions The chart illustrates how five key economic indicators—Inflation, 2-Year Bond Yield, Federal Funds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and Recessions—compare across different time periods or economic conditions. 1. Inflation: This line or bar typically shows the rate at which prices for goods and services rise, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. Inflation is crucial for understanding cost-of-living adjustments and purchasing power. The chart might indicate periods of high or low inflation and how it correlates with other indicators. 2. 2-Year Bond Yield: This line represents the interest rate on 2-year government bonds, which reflects investor expectations for short-term economic conditions and interest rates. A higher yield often suggests expectations of rising interest rates or inflation, while a lower yield might indicate expectations of economic stagnation or lower rates. 3. Federal Funds Rate: This rate, set by the Federal Reserve, influences overall economic activity by affecting borrowing costs. Changes in the Federal Funds Rate can signal the Fed’s stance on monetary policy, with increases often aiming to combat inflation and decreases aiming to stimulate growth. 4. Unemployment Rate: This line measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. It provides insights into labor market conditions and economic health. High unemployment typically indicates economic distress, while low unemployment suggests a robust job market. 5. Recessions: Recessions are usually marked as shaded regions or periods on the chart. They indicate times when economic activity is declining, often accompanied by rising unemployment and decreasing inflation. The chart might show how other indicators like inflation and bond yields behave during recessions. Comparative Insights: Correlation: By comparing these indicators, the chart helps identify patterns, such as how rising inflation might correlate with higher bond yields and Federal Funds Rates. Economic Cycles: It shows how these indicators respond to economic cycles, including periods of expansion and recession. For example, during recessions, inflation might decrease, bond yields might fall, and unemployment might rise. Policy Impacts: The chart may also highlight the impact of monetary policy changes (reflected in the Federal Funds Rate) on inflation and unemployment.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by creengrack
XAUUSD ShortGold Trade Update 💡💰 I’m still holding the same view on gold: it needs to dip before continuing its upward trajectory. This setup is intended as a swing trade, but I’ll be taking multiple quick scalping opportunities along the way. My Plan: I’ll focus on the bearish 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), entering the trade as soon as I spot a wick in the 4H chart seeking liquidity from above. Trade Management: Take partial profits as soon as we see a decline 📉 Move Stop Loss (SL) to Break Even (BE) after taking the first profit. Capital at Risk: 2% 💼 Risk/Reward Ratio: 4:09 🔥 Let’s see how this works out! 🧐
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jaytradermb
NOT best level🔍 **NOT/USDT Technical Analysis - Opportunities and Challenges** 📉 **Current Trend:** The price is moving within a descending channel, indicating overall weakness in the trend. However, it seems to have reached a strong support level that could be a turning point. 📊 🔵 **Key Support Level (0.00734):** This support level, marked with a blue zone, has historically shown price reactions. There's a high probability of a price rebound from this area, which could create a good buying opportunity if the price stabilizes here. 💪 📈 **Potential Upside Move:** There are several key resistance levels for potential price targets: 1️⃣ **First Resistance: 0.01272** - A break above this level would indicate confirmation of an upward trend. 2️⃣ **Second Resistance: 0.01733** - A stronger resistance level that the price may reach with increased demand. 3️⃣ **Third Resistance: 0.02639** - The final target and highest level in this analysis, which could be reached if the previous resistances are broken. ⚠️ **Risk Management:** While there’s a good opportunity to enter the trade at current levels, risk management should always be a priority. If the price fails to hold this support level and drops below it, the downtrend may continue. 📉 🚀 **Conclusion:** This analysis suggests that the 0.00734 level is a crucial point for a price reaction, and a potential upside move could lead to the mentioned targets. The best strategy is entering at support levels and carefully managing risk. ✨
by ahmadarz
GrowGeneration | GRWG | Long at $1.90GrowGeneration NASDAQ:GRWG is approaching one of my favorite technical analysis setups as it gets closer to my selected historical simple moving average (SMA: the white and teal lines). Often, but not always (i.e. public offering news...), the price will jump to the selected historical SMA after a long period of consolidation - which has been occurring for some time. Additionally, the President, CEO, and Director of NASDAQ:GRWG have been buying shares recently near $2 which is a bullish indicator. There are currently only 54.8 million floating shares and an 8%+ short interest, so this could get interesting if the election cycle whips up new interest/chatter about national decriminalization of marijuana. As a result, GrowGeneration is in a personal buy zone at $1.90. Target #1 = $2.20 Target #2 = $2.50 Target #3 = $3.00 Target #4 = $3.50
NASDAQ:GRWGLong
by WorthlessViews
Bitcoin: Hodlers VS Cruisers VS TradersAnother very outside-the-box trend that I discovered while going down an INTOTHEBLOCK rabbit hole was the Holders' Composition by Time Held leading into the parabolic phase. These CRYPTOCAP:BTC Coin balances are a metric powered by INTOTHEBLOCK that shows ownership distribution over time. What is a Hodler Balance? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one year or longer. These are long-term investors. An increase in this metric shows long-term bullish sentiment. What is a Cruiser? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one - twelve months. These addresses are what we would consider swing traders. The transfer from Cruiser balance to Trader balance can be seen as bearish sentiment and the transfer from Trader to Cruiser can been seen as bullish sentiment. What is a Trader? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC less than one month. These are short term balances of day traders, bot trading, etc. An increase in this metric would indicate volatility and a potential bearish sentiment in the market. With that being said about the Trader Balance, on 10/22/20 we can see a (+6%) uptick in Trader balances and a (-2%) down in Cruiser Balances showing investors taking profits and trading into the volatility. On 4/20/24, the Trader Balance crossed the Cruiser Balance solidifying this accumulation period. They started closing in on each other at the end of July, Post-Bitcoin Conference w/Trump speech + JPY reverse-carry trade unwinding + Mega Tech FC. Now they have returned the their early July numbers. KEY TAKEAWAY: You will see a flow into TRADERSBALANCE, out of CRUISERSBALANCE AND HODLERSBALANCE when the market has officially accepted we have entered the parabolic phase of this bull cycle. Look for a flow change and TRADERSBALANCE | CRUISERBALANCE cross between 10/8 & 10/22.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW