Economic Cycles
Short trade
Trade Details:
Date: 2nd September 2024
Pair: GBP/USD
Time: 11:00 PM during the Tokyo Session PM
Trade Type: Sellside trade
Entry Level: 1.31543
Profit Level: 1.31998 (a 0.66%)
Stop Level: 1.31341 (a 0.11% )
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.22
Thought Process:
On the morning of 3rd September 2024, at 6:30 AM GMT, we observed a bias towards the downside. This assessment was influenced by a previous buyside trade, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. The stop loss of the prior trade suggests that the market may be experiencing downward pressure, leading to a sellside trade.
The high Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) of 6.22 indicates taking on a relatively small risk compared to the potential reward, which aligns with my observation of a strong downside bias. This setup suggests confidence and continuation of the downward movement. Further to add the previous stop executed in the buyside trade, with an RR of 3.32, also supports the current sellside narrative showing a pattern of lower highs at this time.
Long trade
Trade Details
Date & Time:
Entry: Sunday, 4th August 2024 at 9:00 PM
During the transition from the Tokyo to London session in the PM).
Trade Type: Buyside (long position).
Entry Price: 0.61649
Profit Level (Take Profit): 0.65517 (6.27%)
Stop Level (Stop Loss): 0.60484 (1.89%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 3.33
BTC - Hourly Bullish With Order Flow Structure Shifting...Hey traders,
As one can see, the OFA script has fired a circle pattern.
This makes us build the thesis to look for long positions in lower timeframes.
Even of the 1h timeframe, as shown in the chart, the structure has shifted to bullish.
We can personally conclude that until proven otherwise, the hourly should continue higher.
The aggregation of flows via the OFA script helps us visualize the dynamic waves forming to get more precise triggers in these lower timeframes.
Remember the two key main features of the OFA script:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Long trade
Trade Details:
Date: Tuesday, 3rd September 2024
Time: 7:00 AM during the NY Session AM
Time Frame: 15-Minute Time Frame (
Trade Type: Buyside trade idea
Entry Level: 2496.002
Profit Level: 2504.435 (a 0.34%)
Stop Level: 2493.547 (a 0.10%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.44
Trade Idea:
This setup reflects a buyside trade on a 15-minute time frame during the NY Session AM
EURUSD ShortThere is not much volatility today due to the U.S. holiday. However, I have seen that so far the FX:EURUSD has not made a new high, I take the opportunity to enter short towards the low zone.
Risk: 0.50%.
Trade Management: Take partial profits, for example at the low of the Asian session and then move the SL in BE.
RR: 3:81
The KING OF BULLS waits to be called to start the BULL RALLYDespite being volatile, BULL SIGNALS don't appear just for show but with the same false breakout rocket signal candlestick.
False breakout rocket signal means BITCOIN is making a pretense downtrend of 5 candlesticks then the BULL GAMES begin.
This is now accompanied by an algorithm BULL TRIANGLE
The added curve means we may face a dip or remain within the price range as it has been confirmed by the false breakout downtrend or could the KING OF BULLS change the SHOW?
My KRISS-CROSS MA's with VOLUME has unveiled a little more wait before the PRIMETIME launch.
Log trade
Pair XAUUSD
Entry 15min TF
NY Session Am
Fri 30th Aug 24
1.50 pm
Buyside trade
Entry 2499.144
Profit level 2514.570 (0.62%)
Stop level 2495.477 (0.15%)
RR 4.21
Observation - Sat, 31st Aug 2024
Currently, on the 15-minute time frame, we observe a bullish breaker that has played out within a balanced price range according to smart money concepts. This setup is confirmed by the lower wick of the red candle and the upward trajectory of price action since leaving the price point of 2498.320, signalling that the price is likely to leave this region to seek out other imbalances, particularly liquidity.
Since we are in a buy-side model, the price will aim to balance the previous sell-side price action. This is highlighted by the blue zones representing demand levels and Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). In the buy-side model, the price is expected to be attracted to these FVG zones, marked in blue, to balance the buy-side/sell-side imbalance.
As a result, we anticipate that the price will continue on an upward trajectory to complete this cycle. The price is expected to seek out and balance the following levels: 2504.003, 2506.553, 2511.581, and 2514.590. The final target for this cycle is the liquidity high at the 2514.590 price level, which will complete the range.
Ps The yellow lines indicate a small price range highlighted by a PD Array, clearly showing the bottom, middle, and top levels. If you look closely, you'll notice the candle bodies creeping upward—a telltale sign of upward movement at this time.
Breaking down Dow Jones Elliott WavesThe above chart is my main hypothesis for the Elliott Wave count of Dow Jones which represents the Elliott Wave Analysis of the Bull Market Post 2008 financial crisis.
Kindly read all the details to better understand the Elliott Wave analysis and how Elliott Waves can be used to give us an edge in trading.
Currently it looks like we are in an Ending Diagonal waves. The reason we are in Ending Diagonal Wave 3 instead of Wave B of ABC flat is because we are too far up now for our current market to be considered in wave B of an ABC flat.
The 2008 crisis bear market was an ABC flat, if you look, we crashed at that time when Wave B was at around 138% of Wave A.
I have attached sub wave structure of the rally we have seen so far after the COVID crash.
I have explained my reasoning for my wave counts in the chart which you can take a look.
Now moving further inside our sub waves, below chart shows the sub wave structure of the ABC wave we are in since 27 October, 2023
Further moving inside our sub waves, the chart below shows the breakdown waves of our this year move. Once all the waves shown in the below chart finish, we should see a correction towards our Post COVID peak price levels.
2020 Aug Sep Oct BTC price history during last FED Rate Cuts2020 Aug Sep Oct BTC price history during last FED Rate Cuts
A look at the 2020 rate cuts and BTC price action with comparison to NASDAQ
Questions:
What happened to BTC / Crypto the last time FED cut rates?
What happened to the Stock Market the last time FED cut rates?
ABBN - CHF | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Daily Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | 15 Minutes Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.88 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Possible forecast for BTC (Long-Term Movement)Just simply using fractals of BTC's own movements to map out what looks like a good chance of happening over the next 6 years. Crash in 2030 allowing for a new cycle of investors to jump in? Teasing between 87K and 13K allowing for high volatility and short/long sweeps. Provides room and time for the web3 and alt-coin market to gain momentum, usage, and volume. We will see!
*NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE | FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
The market is impossible to predict. Anything can happen in the next 5 - 6 years. This is the most level-headed and realistic forecast IMO.
What do y'all think? :)
Comment your thoughts!