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Economic Cycles

Elliott Wave View on Nasdaq (NQ) Calling the Next Bullish Leg upShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) shows that rally from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 20025.25. Pullback in wave (2) ended at 18338.45 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave W ended at 19140.25 and wave X ended at 19693.50. Wave Y lower unfolded as another double three in lesser degree. Down from wave X, wave ((w)) ended at 18825.75 and wave ((x)) ended at 19150.50. Wave ((y)) lower ended at 18338.45 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree. The Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 18927.5 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 18547. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 19813.50 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 19529. Near term, expect Index to extend higher to end wave ((v)) and this should complete wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low in 3, 7, 11 swing before it resumes higher.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026 In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels. Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go! The Four-Year Cycle Theory: The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst. The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases: a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom) b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start) c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak) d. Correction (Bear Market Crash) The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise. With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms. Cycle interval analysis: A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms. The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are: 1. Top-to-Top The time difference between consecutive market tops 2. Top-to-Bottom The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom. 3. Bottom-to-Top The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top. 4. Bottom-to-Bottom The time difference between consecutive market bottoms. There are however also more advanced patterns such as: 5. All-Time-High Break to Top The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top. 6. Halving event to top The time difference between the halving event to the next market top. It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving. What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom. The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows: Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025. According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025. The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025. Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024. The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows: Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026. According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026. Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines: Price prediction using diminishing Returns: In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time. In essence this means the following: Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle. Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles. In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets: Here is a table overview with the values: The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions: The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K. The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K. After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000. Regarding the next bear market Bottom: The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K. We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000. Final Conclusion: Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000. Predicted Cycle Bottom: The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000. These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cryptonerds
3
$BTC - Cuts might not mean moon, yetDec 2000, FFR -> 6.5%, they cut, Recession Declared in March/April 2001 July 2007, FFR -> 5.25%, they cut, Recession Declared in December 2007 July 2019, FFR -> 2.4%, they cut, Recession Declared in ~Feb 2020 Increased liquidity is often seen as a catalyst to CRYPTOCAP:BTC price action, but when you take a look historically, performance of the S&P following rate cut announcements has been lackluster in the immediate months following such cuts. This chart shows 2019, which obviously had the COVID wrench thrown into it, but will the September 2024 cuts follow the same pattern? If so, how decoupled will BTC's performance be from the S&P, if the S&P is falling in mid 2025? I have mixed feelings about the cuts impact. For a while I have felt like a 50bps cut this month would tank assets across the board since 50 (instead of 25) means the market is weaker than we've been led to believe. With or without 50bps leading to a flash crash in the near term, I suspect that in the next 2 quarters we should trend up across markets as a result of the increased liquidity. The real question will be about when the recession will be declared, and how brutal it will be ? WDYT?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by httpz
NVIDIA (NVDA): Our Next Move After Predicting the TopJust 14 days ago, we analyzed NVIDIA and concluded that we might see a small push upward followed by a pullback. We were correct, although the last small push didn't materialize. Still, we're pretty happy that we called the top on NVDA accurately, and perhaps some of you were able to capitalize on it. If so, that makes us even happier 😄 Since our last analysis, NVIDIA has fallen by 21%, bringing us into the area where we should be looking for long positions. We're about to do just that, even though it's risky. We're planning to enter a long position on NVIDIA, with our stop loss set below the end of Wave (4) for invalidation. We don't have a specific target set for NVDA, and we'll be monitoring it closely. Given the risk involved, we won't be over-leveraging here. Let's see if we can get it right again!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
BTC 1h upward rally updateMEXC:BTCUSDT Here's what SMC tell us: after a slight dipping to the DP.i (58550) point of interest (POI) then we ready to see a confirmation signal to buy the dip. that confirmation would be 1. SCOB: Single Candle OrderBlock 2. Lower Time Frame (5mins) ChoCh: (ChoCh: Change of Character) Without a confirmation entry, we are not allowed to execute buy position, and then we have to be patient for price to get to a lower important level, such as Minor High Liquidity Low (57220) or Minor Extreme POI (56025). I will update Bitcoin regularly.. Take Care
by x-Aurio
2
DOGE wait for breakThe Doge/USDT pair on the 1-hour chart has broken out from a symmetrical triangle, indicating a potential bullish trend 📈. Analysis: - Entry: Between 0.10558 and 0.10663 could be a good buy zone 🎯. - Take Profit (TP): Target is set at 0.11238 to 0.11242, a key resistance level. Watch for potential reaction at this level 🏁. - Stop Loss (SL): Placed around 0.10267. If this level breaks, it's best to exit to avoid further losses 🛑. Key Points: - Risk to Reward: The risk/reward ratio is favorable, offering a solid profit potential 💼. - Continued Move: If the price breaks above 0.10798 and holds, the probability of reaching the target increases 📊. Signal: - Buy (Long) between 0.10558 with a target of 0.11238 and a stop loss at 0.10267 🚀.
Long
by ahmadarz
3
DERO is extremely undervalued.DERO a homomorphic encrypted blockchain with secure and private smart contracts is truly one of it's kind. With a fast 18 second block time, being a layer 1 private decentralized application platform with instant syncing and fast transactions DERO is extremely undervalued. The blockchain is relatively new and is in it's alpha stage which means there will be lots of future development coming. Recently TELA is launched, TELA enables the secure and decentralized storage of application files on DERO's blockchain using smart contracts. This makes the DERO protocol capable of hosting true WEB3.0 decentralized webApps. Welcome to the future!
Long
by LisboaGrande