Get started

Economic Cycles

Get ready for a possible crashWe have reached the old ATH too early in the cycle and have been stuck in a consolidation for almost 6 months since then. This can end with a crash now. A final shakeout before the next wave up. The situation is similar to 2019 - early 2020. Too high too early, then a long boring consolidation period, and finally a crash (triggered by COVID). The difference is that it happened in an earlier phase of the cycle. October is statistically a bullish or neutral month in a bull run, so it's likely to happen either in September or November. My target is 40K but a wick can be expected to reach as low as the 30K area. It's likely that we'll get a fast recovery so it's important to have a plan and act decisively.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by function_mechanic
1
GBPJPY - SHORT: Trade Recap, 27/08/2024Bias Analysis: Daily minor swing at equilibrium and 4H trading out of Order Block. 1H range was bearish with price at a 1H Order Block well within Optimal Trade Entry. Entry Criteria: 15M protracted counter to my bias, swept upside liquidity and traded deep within the 1H Order Block before an engulfing candle printed. Grade: High Quality Valid What I did well or could do better: - Exercised patience after the first 15M TBL sweep and reversal print as we had a shallow mitigation of the order block with a 1-sided fair value gap resting below. - Observed the full picture and made a process based decision to enter, full accepting the risk. - I could've been more mindful of inputting the correct data into my position size calculator as the position was too small.
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
1
BTC : HARD DROP Likely BEFORE New ATHHold on to your horses - in today's analysis we're going to do a really deep dive on Bitcoin, the altcoin market (TOTAL 3) and Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Make sure you watch all the way until the end to reach the final conclusion! In this video, I systematically point out two main reasons why the corrective phase isn't over, as well as what could possible happen NEXT based on the rotations between alts and BTC. COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D For months I've been anticipating a multi-month corrective pattern, before another impulse wave up which I believe leads us to our final all time high (ATH) for this bullish cycle. Although I've said "multi-month" quite a few times... who knew it would be such a drag! I nearly thought BTC was ready to turn towards the upside, but after THIS* happened (together with the analysis in the video) it's likely we're still heading lower: *https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/h2bMes4J-BTC-FINALLY-Bullish-BREAKOUT/ THIS* is referring to my update on BTC two days ago, where it seemed like a bullish breakout. At this point however, the price is not able to hold the support zone (which was the condition I listed) and therefore it's likely a fakeout. If you're looking for the idea I referred to in the analysis on the Altcoin dump find it here:👇 _________________________________
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CryptoCheck-
Position buyThis chart for TONUSDT (Toncoin against USDT) on a 4-hour timeframe seems to be highlighting an entry and exit strategy for traders. Here’s a breakdown: Key Elements: 1. Best Entry Zone (5$) 🚀: - The chart indicates that the $5.00 level is considered the "best entry" point for opening a long position, suggesting that the trader expects a price reversal or an upward movement from this level. 2. Take Profit 1 (TP-1) 🎯: - The first take profit target is at $5.543, meaning that once the price reaches this level, traders may choose to lock in some profits. 3. Take Profit 2 (TP-2) 🎯: - The second take profit target is at $6.144, where further profit can be taken if the price continues to rise. 4. Take Profit 3 (TP-3) 🎯: - The third and highest target is set at $6.731, which suggests a more ambitious profit target if the price continues its upward momentum. 5. Stop Loss (SL) 🛑: - The stop loss is placed just below $4.627, meaning that if the price drops to this level, the trade will be closed to limit losses. Summary: - Entry: Around $5.00 (best entry). - Take Profit Targets: - TP1: $5.543 - TP2: $6.144 - TP3: $6.731 - Stop Loss: $4.627 This is a simple risk management strategy where the trader aims to catch a bounce from the $5.00 level with multiple profit-taking points on the way up and a defined exit if the price moves against them.
Long
by ahmadarz
6
SOYBEANS - COT Based Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER. This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There is real risk involved with trading any market. I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week. Here is why. -Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish. -Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish. -While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish. -Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish. -Undervalued vs gold and bonds. -ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near. -Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme). -Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals. -Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low. For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message. Good luck, and good trading.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tradius_Trades
2
Break or Bounce On The Dollar As Interest Rate Cut Looms?With the Fed poised to cut rates at September's meeting, the dollar hovers at the key 100 key monthly level which, on a normal occasion, would serve as a clear support but after such a long awaited rate cut, which would devalue the dollar even further, one cannot be so sure. Technically, there are no real indicators of price shifting structure to the upside as yet but with price in a Daily bullish order block, monitoring its development over the course of this week will be key. EurUsd & UsdZar are not in ideal trading conditions and so will not be on my radar this week unless price action develops further. GbpJpy however continues to trade higher from a Weekly order block and is currently encountering resistance from a 4H order block which may result in a slight correction before we continue higher into Daily equilibrium.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only. RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs. This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now. The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry. Lets get to it. Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention. Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing. Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell? For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move. Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
NYMEX:RBU2024
by Tradius_Trades
DJI 8/26~30 LONG Forecast 1D Chart / LONG Technical Grounds -NV > +250M -TV Strong buy -LinReg Pearson <0.95 -Pivots HL still Long-Green -LinReg > 90 degrees (uptrend) -Reverse Head & Shoulders Formation -NV shows a declination trend of negative bars -Price crossed up SMA100, SMA20 & LinReg Mid Line -Price crossed up index resistance on past Aug 15th -Price level far from cyclic ending point of Sep 13th -POLITICAL FACTOR: Elections coming / +Media Influence -Fed announcing interest rate cuts (as political influence in elections / investors mindset) SHIBUSDT / LONG ....
DJ:DJILong
by SolutionsforallNet