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Economic Cycles

Case for a $2,000,000 BTC in 2025This is extremely optimistic and hyper-bullish, but I wanted to publish this idea for posterity. So far, the current bull market cycle is following the 2015-2017 cycle very very closely. I think it's something like 95% correlated. We've experienced about a 500% increase from bear market lows just like we did in 2015-2016, and then in 2017 we experienced about a 20x from there. Given a Trump presidency, and the pro-crypto stance, and the fact that nations and states are proposing or actually buying BTC for reserves, I think FOMO in 2017 is going to make the price skyrocket. Is another 20x possible? If this cycle continues to correlate the same way it has been, that's exactly what we'll see. Will it happen? Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Metal76
1
The market's energy is fueling a new wave of growth!Yesterday was a significant moment for the crypto market. 🌐 We received clear confirmation of the emergence of a new wave of growth. The upward flow of energy confirmed the intention of buyers, and the result of the day consolidated the volumes and showed the readiness to move to new heights. 📈 🎯 Key levels of support and resumption of growth: - 3525 is the level where a local suspension of movement is possible to accumulate energy. - 3443 is a zone that can become a key support and a starting point for the resumption of upward movement. 🔍 Chart analysis: On the daily timeframe, we can see how the price is organically forming a base for continued growth. Yesterday brought progress with a clear buyer's volume, which supports the upward trend. The energy flow is now focused on forming new support points for further upward movement. 🔥 ⚡️ What to expect next? A new wave of growth is already gaining strength, and the buyer is showing stability in intentions. Keep an eye on the situation and the price reaction at key levels. Be prepared for further opportunities that the market opens up! 🌟
Long
by WVitalievich
BTC | FRACTAL | Fractal that leads to new ETH ATHBitcoin has been trading stable around 95K, a good indication that the bull run still has some more cards to play for altcoins. Ethereum, Doge and SOL for example have not yet made new all time high's, indicating that the bullish cycle is far from over. There's a saying that leads something like "it's not over until someone sings" - well, in this case, the bullish cycle is not over until Ethereum makes a new ATH. ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
1
BTC performance in this cycle 243k topHere its a fibonacci logaritmic scenario which bitcoin will perfprm, the resistances are clear, 100k-153k-203k-243k respectively BTC will not go much further than 243k if history repeats itself and follow the sequence, we also must notice that this bullrun is diferent, we usually see big uptrend movements to resistances and then a lateralization on those levels, this happens due to institutional governance in the market and they follow the Fibonacci retracements, so as soon as we get to 150k there must be a 20-30% max correction, also with 200k that there it can be more heavy up to 50% correction but no guaranteed, and then finally the max level of 240k as soon as we get to that point its a 100% win to put a short x2 or short x3 of btc and see all burn March 20 150k reached may 200k reached big falldown september 243k , short asap
Long
by Phibonesratsen
WILL GOLD'S H4 WEAKNESS LEAD TO MORE PRICE DECLINE?Gold is showing weakness on the H4 timeframe with a heavy price fall below a swing low in yesterday's trading. The metal's price is now rising toward a previously created resistance level. Will there be a price rejection at the resistance level, or will the price zoom past it to create another swing high? N.B! - XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBearMkt
USDT Dominance Road Map: Crypto Market Cycles📌 USDT Dominance Prediction: Crypto Market Cycles 🔵 🧭 Roadmap Overview: This chart maps out the cyclical nature of USDT dominance in the crypto market, which reflects investor sentiment and capital flows between stablecoins and risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. USDT Dominance represents the percentage of the total crypto market cap held in Tether (USDT). When USDT dominance rises, it typically signals a bear market as investors move to stablecoins for safety. Conversely, when USDT dominance falls, it signals a bull market, as capital flows into riskier assets. 🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends: 1️⃣ 2018-2020 Bull Run (USDT Dominance Falls): During this period, we saw capital flowing out of USDT into BTC and altcoins, fueling a bull market. 2️⃣ 2021-2022 Bear Run (USDT Dominance Rises): Following the crypto crash in 2022, USDT dominance spiked as investors fled risk assets. 3️⃣ 2024-2025 Bull Run (USDT Dominance Expected to Fall): We are now entering a new bull market phase, with the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 acting as a major catalyst. 🧩 Where We Are Now: USDT Dominance is currently at 4.25%. Based on historical patterns: I expect USDT dominance to fall over the next few years, signaling the start of a new bull run in crypto. The next bear market will likely begin after 2028, as USDT dominance starts to rise again. ⚡ How USDT Dominance Impacts the DXY: Capital Flow from Crypto to USD: When USDT dominance rises, it means capital is flowing out of risk assets like Bitcoin into stablecoins, which are backed by USD reserves. This inflow into USD can strengthen the DXY in the short term. De-Dollarization Risks: If crypto-native stablecoins (like DAI or even future decentralized stablecoins) gain adoption, they could bypass the USD entirely, reducing demand for USD-backed stablecoins and weakening the DXY. Cross-Border Payments with Stablecoins: As stablecoins become more widely used for international settlements, they could start to replace traditional SWIFT payments that rely on USD reserves, further reducing the need for the dollar in global trade. 💬 Do you think crypto adoption could challenge the dominance of the USD and impact the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Ehsanzh
DXY Long-Term Roadmap🧭 Roadmap Overview: The DXY (US Dollar Index) moves in multi-decade cycles of bull and bear runs, reflecting changes in global economic conditions, monetary policies, and investor sentiment. In this chart, I’ve mapped out a long-term roadmap based on historical cycles that indicate where we are now and what to expect in the future. I’ve also included how crypto adoption and stablecoins could potentially impact the DXY in the coming years. 🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends: 1️⃣ 1980-1985 Bull Run: Driven by Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation. The DXY reached a peak around 160, marking a major bull run. 2️⃣ 1985-1995 Bear Run: The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a devaluation of the dollar. The DXY dropped significantly during this period. 3️⃣ 1995-2002 Bull Run: The dot-com boom and a period of economic expansion saw the DXY rally once again, reaching highs above 120. 4️⃣ 2002-2008 Bear Run: Post-9/11 and the housing bubble crash triggered a major decline in the DXY. 5️⃣ 2008-2022 Bull Run: The global financial crisis in 2008, combined with Fed tightening policies, triggered a long bull run in the DXY, peaking around 114 in 2022. 🧩 Where We Are Now: Currently, the DXY is at a critical inflection point. Based on historical cycles: The next bear run is expected to start soon, driven by a potential Fed pivot to lower interest rates and increasing global de-dollarization efforts. After this bear run, I expect another multi-year bull run, starting around 2030, as the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency. ⚡ How Crypto Could Impact the DXY: 🔵 1. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against USD: Bitcoin is often seen as digital gold, offering investors a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. If Bitcoin adoption grows globally, it could reduce demand for USD and put downward pressure on the DXY. 🟢 2. Stablecoins Competing with USD: Stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI are pegged to the USD and used globally as digital dollars. However, if crypto-native stablecoins start to replace traditional banking systems, it could challenge the dominance of the USD in global trade. For example: USDT has a higher daily transaction volume than PayPal. Crypto transactions across borders bypass traditional banking systems, reducing the need for USD reserves. 🟡 3. De-Dollarization & Crypto Adoption: Countries like Russia, China, and BRICS nations are pushing to reduce reliance on the USD. If they adopt crypto or blockchain-based settlement systems, it could accelerate the decline of the DXY. Example: Russia is exploring digital currencies to settle international trade. China’s digital yuan (CBDC) aims to reduce reliance on the USD for cross-border payments. ⚡ Key Risk: The more crypto adoption grows, the more demand for traditional USD may decline, which could negatively impact the DXY in the long term. 🎯 Predicted Cycles: 📉 Bear Run: 2025-2030 📈 Bull Run: 2030-2040 💬 What are your thoughts on how crypto adoption could impact the future of the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
TVC:DXY
by Ehsanzh
Potential Wyckoff reversal pattern BTCUSDHi everybody. I want to pick your brain about my swing trade / position trade entry idea on BTC. Investment thesis: FUNDAMENTALS: Long Term: Liquidity expanding + China Stimulus / Raoul Paul GMI concepts. Time based: End of quarter rally + cycle stage should come with a rally. TECHNICALS Weekly: FVG in Support tested several times. Daily: Daily wicks and Bullish FVG Hourly: Wyckoff (sort of) strucutre: Sell climax + penetration + BOut Res + retest RR: 3:1 approx.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by SensumCommunem
BTC | FRACTAL | Multi Month to Higher High?BTC has been full of surprises - but I'm not complaining. Initially, I was following a strict Elliot Wave Theory pattern, which played out extremely well - until the price shot out above the target. I then re-adjusted the target to just under or just over 100k, which hit shortly after. The most interesting part though, is actually Ethereum. The fact that ETH has not yet made a new ATH after the dramatic BTC high, likely tells us the bull cycle is far form over. I've been making a few updates on ETH and Altseason, and how you use the BTC.D chart, the BTC chart and the TOTAL# together to get a clear indication of where we are at in the cycle. I've done MANY updates using this chart, because it is such a powerful combo to use. The fact remains - we have not yet seen a new ETH ath. This raises flags (and in the best possible way) indicating that the bullish cycle is not yet over. _____________________________________ BYBIT:BTCUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
1
Potential Supercycle brewing w/ left moved cycle narrativePlease view my previous idea on the left moved/translated cycle, that would now pave the way for the Supercycle á lá Su Zhu. Early and aggressive market top that would then send us as low as the prices we have seen during the ETF introduction to the market (potential bottom around 36-42k) / smashing right through the previous ATH as support and then go higher. I expect the macro situation to worsen, but the damages that have been done during Covid, will heal over time (Inflation, destabilization of the market and tension on borders as well as supply + demand). Nothing more to add here, just an idea of what I believe the market will do over the course of the next few years.
Long
by awesometrador
2
ETH.D% PitchFan StackCRYPTOCAP:ETH.D Ethereum Dominance % has had multiple sharp declines that have led to nice runs after. I think the rise of other cryptos have had a change on Ethereum dominance the most. Bitcoin dominance not much of a change from rise of other cryptos. These changes can be because of multiple factors like market cap increases, different positioning, different market structure, etc. Ethereum still looks good to have a nice run in strong dominance in crypto. Physical commodity comparison: Bitcoin with a Gold Comparison: There was a time when gold backed multiple currencies all around the world and Gold was the most important commodity to the Financial system. Bitcoin backs all of crypto as it is paired to all cryptos, one way or another. Making Bitcoin the most important of the Cyber Financial Crypto Ecosystem as well as one of the most important digital currencies worthy of an allocation as a Strategic Financial Reserve Asset as gold is. Ethereum with a Silver Comparison: Ethereum can much better than Silver comparison due to the many different opportunities it has to grow and advance in other areas. Silver is seen as a second to Gold so the comparison is still there. Ethereum can continue to be a valuable second to Bitcoin and grow with the Cyber Financial Crypto Ecosystem. CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D
CRYPTOCAP:ETH.DLong
by ChartValue
1
SHIB 50% profitThis chart presents a trading opportunity for SHIB/USDT with clear take-profit (TP) levels and a promising uptrend cycle. 📈 Analysis: The yellow moving average (MA) highlights a trend shift to bullish momentum. SHIB's price has crossed this line, indicating a potential breakout. 🚀 A strong support level is visible near 0.00002139, preventing further downside. 🛡️ The green zone represents the risk-free entry point, suggesting limited downside risk if proper stop-loss levels are respected. ✅ Targets are clearly defined: TP1: 0.00002373 🎯 TP2: 0.00002641 🥈 TP3: 0.00003212 🥇 A big uptrend cycle suggests SHIB could reach these targets as it attracts more buyers. 🐂 Strategy: Entry Zone: Current price levels around 0.00002139 are favorable for opening long positions. 💹 Stop Loss: Place at 0.00002019 to limit risks. 🛑 Profit-Taking: Gradually secure gains at each TP level. 📊 Market Sentiment: Volume bars show increasing participation, signaling that buyers are stepping in. If this continues, SHIB is likely to hit its targets. 🔥 Final Note: This is a low-risk, high-reward setup based on technical indicators and market structure. Always monitor the market for sudden changes and stick to your plan. ⚠️
Long
by ehsancrypto72
Bitcoin Logarithmic Chart Since 2009Bitcoin is currently in a bull cycle similar to previous cycles. Bitcoin has a notorious 4 year cycle that almost everyone knows about due to it's halving. This means the current bull cycle should extend into late 2025. However, things may be a little different from what most people would expect this time. This is an all-time Bitcoin logarithmic chart going back to 2009 which is when Bitcoin was released. This is a monthly chart so all the information can fit onto a single screen. The red line shows a trajectory similar to an airborne projectile of some kind. As time goes on, the velocity is slowing. We all know what happens next when velocity slows down too much. Gravity takes over! The green lines were drawn from the lows to the highs. I realize they may be off by a candle or so depending on data source or where somebody want to put the start/end times, but this doesn't change the overall concept. Every bull cycle has lower growth in terms of %. This is just a fact. There are 3 important notes I want to make other than slowing velocity: 1) Bitcoin is already extended up to the red line this cycle. Which just so happens to coincide with the strong psychological $100000 level. 2) Notice how the growth percentages are drastically lower each cycle. Bitcoin is currently up more than 500% from it's low point this cycle. The previous cycle only made a 1829% move. So the high for this cycle may have already been made. 3) We are about 25 candle into the current cycle. Each cycle has different durations from low point to high point though. The shortest cycle was only 28 candles. Bitcoin may very well have made it's high point this cycle already. If not, there may be only a few months left of bullish movement. See my previous analysis using a regular linear chart which I made near the top. Both long-term charts are in agreement.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by EACoders