Bitcoin - 2025After a long consolidation around $100,000, and a correction of ~32% from the top, it seems we are preparing for a new move.
In the previous idea, I mentioned that there could be either consolidation or a healthy correction, but both happened.
I will describe several scenarios that I see.
I will describe only positive, super-positive and ultra-positive ones.
Since the negative sounds like this - we have already reached the peak, there will be a small over-high, and we will go bearish.
Positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $150,000-$200,000
Super-positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $200,000-$300,000
Ultra-positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $300,000-$400,000
Now you must ask - can we really reach $400,000, how is this possible, with the current price of $84,000, and April outside the window?
I will tell you that there is nothing complicated or incredible here, that is why it is ultra-positive.
But you should focus only on positive and negative scenarios, and not float in the clouds hoping for a miracle.
As for altcoins, in this scenario, I don't think Bitcoin dominance will last long, so high, in any case, soon there will either be an overflow and altcoins will start shooting, or we will all die from the paws of bears
HOLD YOUR BEARS, IT'S NOT OVER
Economic Cycles
Bitcoin Dominance Ascending Channel and Altseason (1W Log)CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been in a clean uptrend inside an ascending channel for over 2 years.
• The midline has consistently acted as a magnet, but BTC.D has recently detached from it and might be headed for another retest of the upper boundary.
• Unless major macro catalysts intervene, I expect no notable changes until the 72-73% key area, the same zone that triggered 2021's altseason.
Regarding altseason, this cycle isn't like previous ones. With millions of tokens today, dilution is real, and a full-blown altseason where everything pumps seems unlikely.
Instead, I expect selective rotation into quality projects, and that might actually make it easier to find real outperformance.
SUPER/USDT Technical Breakdown – Historical Cycle Repeating?🟢 Current Price: $0.5645
📊 Historical Moves (from chart):
🔹 Cycle 1:
🔹 Entry: ~$0.475
🔹 Peak: $1.5192
🔹 % Gain: +236.92%
🔹 Duration: 97 days
🔹 Cycle 2:
🔹 Entry: ~$0.387
🔹 Peak: $2.2603
🔹 % Gain: +361.63%
🔹 Duration: 133 days
🔹 Projected Cycle 3:
🔹 Entry: ~$0.5648
🔹 Peak: $1.6985 - $2.2667
🔹 % Gain: +267.04%
🔹 Duration: 102 days
🔹 Forecasted Move (Based on Pattern Repeat):
🔹 Projection: From current base (~$0.5031) → Target Range: $1.5332–$2.2666
🔹 Potential Max Gain: ~+386.94% (historical highest pattern)
🎯 Target Zones:
🎯 Target Price Level From $0.5645 Approx. ROI
Target 1 $0.8632 Resistance & fib zone +53%
Target 2 $1.2535 Previous rejection point +122%
Target 3 $1.5244 Historical fib resistance +170%
Final Stretch $2.2666 Last bull cycle top +301%
🟨 Suggested Entry Zone:
Between $0.50 – $0.56
Matches historical bottoms from each prior cycle
Strong support with triple bottom structure
🛑 Stop Loss Consideration:
Below $0.5031 support line
Break of structure would invalidate current cycle repeat
🧠 Strategy:
✅ Accumulate slowly within support range
🧾 Set sell targets at fib zones or previous tops
🔍 Monitor for breakout volume or EMA crossovers
Disclaimer...a portion of this was generated using AI to help me clearly get my idea across.
[ TimeLine ] Gold 4 April 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today is Wednesday, April 2, 2025.
I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as key entry points for my trades:
📌 April 4, 2025 (Friday), or
📌 April 4 & April 7, 2025 (Friday & Monday).
Trading Plan:
✅ Wait for the price range from these candles to form (indicated by the green lines).
✅ Trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range , with a 60-pip buffer .
✅ If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL) , we will cut/switch the trade and double the position size to recover losses.
📉📈 Below is the chart with the estimated Hi-Lo range of April 4 & 7, 2025.
You can copy the unique code and add it to the TradingView URL .
🔗 TV/x/ikMJV8NH/
Bitcoin Cyclical Pattern Analysis: 2017 vs 2025-2026The charts provide compelling evidence of fractal patterns between Bitcoin's 2017 bull run and the current 2025 cycle, revealing both striking similarities and meaningful differences in market behavior.
Key Similarities
Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements:
Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025)
Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks
Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows
Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case)
Key Differences
Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to
2017
Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer
First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration
Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer
Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer
Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements:
First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half
Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half
Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half
Technical Analysis Support
This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators:
Bollinger Bands would show:
Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves
Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts
2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections
Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate:
Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends
Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance
2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods
Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes
Predictive Value
This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons:
Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns.
Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns.
Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate:
The current cycle extending into mid-2026
One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction
A final explosive move of approximately 125-150%
Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial
Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes.
This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
BTC to the moonIs Bitcoin Just Getting Started? This Fib Zone Could Be the Ultimate Buy Signal!
Bitcoin is pulling back… but smart money is watching this golden zone.
After a strong rally, BTC is now retesting the 61.8%–78.6% Fib retracement zone—historically one of the highest-probability reversal areas in crypto. We’re not just guessing here… the chart is showing structure, confluence, and opportunity.
My Trade Plan (Weekly Chart)
- Entry Zone: FWB:83K – $85K
- Re-entry/DCA: $79K – $81K
- Stop Loss: $74K
- Take Profits:
- TP1: $95K
- TP2: $109K (previous high)
- TP3: $130K–$144K (extension zone)
Bullish bias unless we close below $78K on the weekly. A clean breakout above GETTEX:89K could send BTC into price discovery mode again.
Could this be the last big dip before a parabolic move? Time will tell, but this setup has everything we look for.
Agree? Disagree? Drop your thoughts below.
Follow for more swing setups & macro plays.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Fibonacci #PriceAction #SwingTrade #Bullish #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUSD #BitcoinHalving #BuyTheDip #AltseasonComing #TradingView
Is SP500 / US M2 Money Supply telling us a story?Historically this ratio has inflected from key levels. Last week the upper boundary of what 8 would call a normal range has acted as support. If history rhymes to dot com bubble, this AI bubble can bounce from these levels and see an increase until Q4 2026, then a sharp fall will follow. To the lower boundary of that normal range.
Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September?
This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone".
Target #1 = $104
Target #2 = $122
Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future.
As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later.
I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further.
My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90.
Targets:
2027: $100.00
2028: $105.00
2029: $110.00
2030: $115.00
Bust (unknown timing): $170+
Gold Xau (tf1M) Last Phase AccumulationGold Xau Last Phase Accumulation incoming 👇
"Way from 1500 to 4100" (+175%)
OANDA:XAUUSD
⏰ TimeFrame 1 Month
👉 Go to last phase accumulation
👉 White Trace
👉 Green Trace
👉 EMA 200 1M (White)
👉 Fib Measure as pattern "ExPanding Triangle" ( blue stick )
👉 Potential +175%
✔️Logarithmic (Log) Chart & Fib
Gold touches all-time high. Overbought or poised for more upsideGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has soared to a new all-time high, marking the launch of its next bullish phase. This powerful uptrend began on September 26, 2022, and is unfolding as a five-wave Elliott Wave pattern, a technical framework traders use to predict market movements. The first wave (I) climbed to 2081.82, showing strong momentum. Then, a corrective wave (II) pulled back to 1810.58, setting the stage for more gains. The third wave (III) was the most explosive, rocketing to 3167.74, driven by global demand for the safe-haven metal. Wave IV followed, forming a zigzag pattern—a typical correction where prices dip before resuming the trend. This correction found its low at 2954.62 after a structured decline.
Now, gold is advancing in wave V, the final leg of this impulse. The first sub-wave, wave (1), hit 3132.59, with smaller waves within it showing steady progress. A brief wave (2) dip ended at 3103.17, and now wave (3) is pushing prices higher. As long as the key support at 2954.6 holds, pullbacks should attract buyers, particularly in 3, 7, or 11 swings—technical levels where dips often reverse. This suggests more upside ahead for gold, appealing to both traders and investors watching this historic rally.
After the gold frenzy, there will soon be a sharp correctionTo be honest, I must admit that I still hold a short position. I think there should be many people holding short positions now, but they are unwilling to admit that they hold short positions because they are losing money.
I think it is not shameful to hold a short position now. Although gold has violently risen to around 3220, from the perspective of trading volume, gold is rising without volume. Without the support of trading volume, gold is destined to usher in a round of correction in the short term.
And I have reason to believe that the accelerated rise of gold is suspected of being manipulated by large institutional funds. There are two purposes. One is to accelerate the rise to attract more retail funds to flow into the market to take over; the other is to raise prices arbitrarily to make it easier to sell. So the faster gold rises, the easier it is to collapse! We first aim at the retracement target: 3150-3130 area,or even 3120.
So for short-term trading, I think we can still continue to short gold, and I am optimistic about the short position of gold! The trading strategy verification accuracy rate is more than 90%; one step ahead, exclusive access to trading strategies and real-time trading settings
ETH | Ethereum Hits 2 YEAR LOW - What's Next?Could it be that ETH bottoms out here?
Low from March 2023:
Interestingly enough, it could be said that it was the previous cycle's accumulation zone. Considering the previous cycle's price action, this isn't a ad zone to load up - for the longer term.
From here, although the price bounced high, and low, it was the 8-month price action before the next bullish cycle started. This gives us perspective in terms of time
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BINANCE:ETHUSDT
PEG @ 0.22 DEBT/ASSET @ 0.09 NVIDIA LOOKS CHEAP WITH SELL-OFFFundamental metrics favour NVIDIA and with the company's return on equity (ROE) stands above 119%, NVDA stock price looks irresistible below 105.
N.B!
- NVDA price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#nvda
#nasdaq
#nyse