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Economic Cycles

Bretton Woods 2.0?Examining the long-term trend of TVC:DXY since the 1980s, we might be facing a staggering 40% reduction in valuation, potentially landing us around 60. If the US were to devalue the dollar this drastically, could it effectively erase the national debt? 🤔 Is Trump bold enough to consider such a move? We know the FED is going to cut eventually, the question is when and by how much? Initial claims came in higher than estimated, with cracks beginning to show in the labor market, how much longer can JPow hold out?
TVC:DXY
by httpz
ETHUSD: Buying opportunityWarning, this is highly speculative! Ethereum faced a gruesome decline since the peak of around 4000 back in december, reaching a bottom of ~$1400 Then, in may, we had a huge rally, boasting a nearly 100% bounce from bottom to top. Now, this fact alone has many people holding off on buying short term, as they feel a drop could be just around the corner, however, i think for this exact reason, aswell as an inbound risk-on environment, it will continue the rally, and much faster and for much longer than anticipated, creating that FOMO wave people seem so desperate to try and catch. The whole reason you end up with the feeling of FOMO, is because your past decisions seem stupid in hindsight, and recent price action makes it seem obvious. Well let me tell you, its NOT obvious, and that is precisely why it runs and creates that FOMO wave. Price targets are irrelevant, focus on recognizing when greed runs amok, and take profits accordingly. EOY Would be an obvious point at which selling heavy might be smart, but then again, its never obvious... Goodluck!
Long
by RuinedNarrative
BTC FRACTAL : Has BTC been following THIS EXACT PATTERN?The only difference in terms of the first peak, is the duration. But even the pullback size has been similar: Interestingly, in terms of the second peak, the increase from the corrective bottom to the new ATH is almost exact at 122%: Here's why we MAY still have a small push upward: - The previous time, the peak was at least 6% higher. Currently, that would put us around 116K. - The current pennant pattern is different from the previous bearish flag. 2%: Pattern: Do you think the bearish cycle is starting, or is another push up likely? ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Crypto-Check-
1
BULLS VS BEARS WILL GOLD MATCH ATH?Glossary: Ged = Bearish scenario Green = Bullish scenario POI = Point of interest ATH = All time high LQ = Liquidity zone Gold since the beginning has been moving in a range and break fashion you'll see this across the board, always. A 4hr range is in the process of being formed ideally what wed like to see is for the high to be matched first. That simply would give more confidence for the bears to get in and short the market however now we sit with the though of where will it go first? preferred bias Buys to sell, ideally and the most logical outcome is the highs do get matched forming a strong liquidity zone that can be targeted at a future date, as price begins to fall new points of interest can then be formed (since there isn't a lot to target above right now), this will allow the market to have areas it can market when we see the bullish side of this range play out when ever that may be. Structure Current structure allows you to get in trades, previous structure allows you to get out of trades use it to your advantage, think. where does the money want to move next where will the banks get the best bang for their buck and most importantly where can we cause traders to LOSE, a trade you win is a trade someone else lost. so long you stick with where the big guys want to go you'll be on the right side Bullish bias (green) Key points get broken, imbalance fill, ATH matched (this is where short orders get stacked, future sweep target. Bearish bias (red) Area 1 , this is the first key low im looking to break if we see a candle close below continue to area 2, there are traders who WILL get stopped out at zone 1 Area 2 , this is our next key point in structure there will still be traders with open positions here also, again if we see a candle close below this zone continue to monitor for Area 3 Area 3, this may be a final target, however there's still POI's sat below if price shows strong signs of bearish momentum target Areas 4 and below can be open for discussion Conclusion personally i would like to see POI's built on the buy side as of right now before we move down simply because the market NEEDS somewhere to move from and to without that it would be erratic. If you found this helpful be sure to boost this idea, give a like and a follow, consistent charts will be posted on a weekly basis and let me know what you think down in the comment section too :)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MisterGBP
Skeptic | GBP/USD Analysis: Breakout Triggers in the Box!Hey everyone, Skeptic here! FX:GBPUSD has been killing it with a solid uptrend but now it’s chilling in a correction phase, trapped in a box range. A break above or below this box could light up some epic triggers, so let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis to get the full picture. 🧠 Starting with the Daily Timeframe we’re riding a powerful upward channel where price has been dancing perfectly with the ceiling, floor, and midline. We’ve nabbed some sweet trades from this setup before! After hitting resistance at 1.35576 , we slipped into a time-based correction. Here’s the daily breakdown: If the box floor at 1.35002 cracks, we could slide to 1.34173 , hitting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement— a legit first support zone. 🎯 If we bust through the ceiling, the channel’s midline is our next target. But with lower highs forming, I’m betting on a deeper correction for now. 📉 With that intel, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe for our main long and short triggers. 🔥 For longs, a break above 1.35576 is our golden ticket, with a stop loss below the box. Want a quicker R/R and early profits? Set a tighter stop below the 1H or 15-minute floor that forms. 💸 For shorts, we can play with a smaller stop loss. I’d jump in after breaking support at 1.35002 , with a stop loss at 1.35464 if we go bearish from here. If we test the box ceiling again before breaking the floor, the stop loss sits above the box. 🚨 Heads-up: longs are riskier based on the daily clues. As always, do your own research, steer clear of FOMO, and never forget—capital management and stop losses are your market lifelines. Nobody shouts about those enough! A single trade, good or bad, won’t make or break your long-term game, so skip the emotional drama and grind on your strategy and psychology. 💬 Let’s Talk! If this recap got your gears turning, smash that boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for vibing with me—keep trading sharp! ✌️
by SkepticWise
1
Columbus McKinnon Corp | CMCO | Long at $14.90Columbus McKinnon Corp NASDAQ:CMCO is a stock that is highly cyclical, moving in "boom and bust" cycles every 3-5 years. As indicated by its entry into my "crash" simple moving average area (currently between $11 and $13), it may be nearing the end of its bust cycle (time will tell). With a book value at $31, debt-to-equity of 0.6x (healthy), quick ratio over 1 (healthy), insiders buying over $1 million in the past 6 months, a 2% dividend yield, and earning forecast to grow after 2025, NASDAQ:CMCO may be a hidden gem for double-digit returns in the coming years. But every investment is a risk. Thus, at $14.90, NASDAQ:CMCO is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $25.00 (+67.8%) $30.00 (+101.3%)
NASDAQ:CMCOLong
by WorthlessViews
Huntsman Corporation | HUN | Long at $11.34The stock price for Huntsman Corp NYSE:HUN , a manufacturer of organic chemical products, has dropped significantly since its peak in 2022 ($41.65). This was due to lower sales volumes, weak demand in construction and transportation, higher input costs, and European operational challenges, including a $75M hit from closing a German Maleic Anhydride facility. This year (2025) is anticipated to be its worst earnings year, and the stock is priced as such. However, this stock is historically cyclical, and the company expects recovery / growth again in 2026. Moving forward, earnings are forecast to grow and the company is trading at good value compared to peers and the industry. While many headwinds may still exist with tariffs, etc., insider are grabbing shares and large options positions (very bullish). With a book value of $17, debt-to-equity at 0.8x, quick ratio under 1, etc., the company appears healthy. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price just barely missed my "crash" simple moving average area (currently between $9.00 and $10.50). It may reach those levels and below in 2025, for which I will add another position as long as fundamentals do not change. This moving average area often signifies "bottom" territory and historically, the stock has rebounded from this area. While my entry at $11.34 may be a little early, predicting true bottoms isn't my trading method and I hope to strengthen the position at lower trading prices. Targets: $15.00 (+32.2%) $17.25 (+49.9%)
NYSE:HUNLong
by WorthlessViews
Sleep Number Company | SNBR | Long at $6.99Sleep Number Company $NASDAQ:SNBR. Closed all existing open price gaps on the daily chart below its current rice. The overall downward trend is starting to flatten. They make all their products in the US and have minimal exposure to international markets (reduced risk around tariffs). Understandably, recession risks are high and such a company would be impacted. Plus, their debt is pretty high. This is a risky investment, but from technical analysis perspective, there could be a future rebound in the near-term. Thus, at $6.99, NASDAQ:SNBR is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $10.00 $12.00
NASDAQ:SNBRLong
by WorthlessViews
1
[ TimeLine ] Gold 26-27 May 2025Hello everyone, 📅Today is Sunday, May 25, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • May 26, 2025 (Monday) • May 27, 2025 (Tuesday) (using 2 candles) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has experienced a sharp bullish move of over 1000 pips, breaking out from the ranging area 3255 to 3366 ⚠️ If the upcoming Hi-Lo range is wide and shows bullish continuation, consider entries on corrections after breakout or setups based on Fibonacci retracement ✅ I will be trading both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy ⚠️ If you're feeling risk-averse or uncertain, it's totally fine to skip the May 26 or May 27–28 (2-candle) signals 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the Hi-Lo range from the selected candles to fully form. These will be initially marked with purple lines on the chart, and I’ll update the chart with additional indicator lines once the range is fully confirmed after market close 🔹 Entry will be triggered on breakout, with a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), cut/switch and double the position on the next valid setup to attempt recovery 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL: TV/x//BjdZ9IgR/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo