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Economic Cycles

The Daily Edge - 18th Feb 2025Low Volatility as XAUUSD Holds Inside Consolidation Market Overview Monday printed an inside bar after the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday, leading to low volatility. Price remains between 2940 IT-HH and 2860 ST-HL, with a failure swing below Friday’s low at 2880 but no decisive break. 4H chart confirms continued consolidation, keeping price within the range. Key Observations Inside bar formation – no breakout, signaling indecision. Range-bound price action – price holds between 2940 and 2860, confirming consolidation. Our Next Steps Remain flat until a clear setup develops. Monitor range extremes for trade setups Longs: Below 2860, if price confirms. Shorts: Above 2950, if structure aligns. Avoid overtrading – patience is key until a strong directional move prints. Reflection Prompt How does recognizing when to stay out of the market improve discipline and long-term trading performance? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipsnPaper
SOL Biggest Bargain Buy Opp at 50WMAI wrote my thesis on Solana in July 2023 when it was at $25 and memecoins weren't even a thought. No one even knew what BONK was, but the developer community was thriving, and all the best dApps were being built there. Now that people are tired of rinsing themselves clean at the casino, it's funny to see them call CRYPTOCAP:SOL ded ~$180💀 SOL is up 625% since I first wrote about it 😂 The blockchain has tremendously improved in every metric, with a plethora of new advancements on the near horizon, including Firedancer 🔥 Buying SOL here at the 50WMA is an absolute gift. Target is still, and always will be $700-850 within the next 9 months.
Long
by jonnieking
2
Bitcoin: Long-Term Recurring Cycles via FibsMonthly reminder that prices move in fibonacci proportions to its own size. I'll provide the most extreme version for illustration purposes. Let's focus on first ATH after which there was the heaviest decline of 93% and use those coordinates in order to explain the rest recurring cycles. Now, if we capture the first notable cycle (around 2010-2011) with fibonacci channels and adjust the direction to the most common angle of decline, it reveals not just the reversal levels but its timing. (Traders typically use Fibonacci channels by connecting two highs to establish the overall trend direction, with a third point linking a low to anticipate key price levels. However, when applied in reverse—using a high and a low to define direction and a third point to map a cycle—it not only identifies potential price targets but also uncovers critical timing patterns within the market.) The logic is that when price surges to a new all-time high (ATH) and breaks through a Fibonacci level without pausing, it tends to continue toward the next Fibonacci level, which is more likely to act as a stronger resistance and trigger a significant correction. Instead of relying on subjective directional arrows or subjective Elliott Wave interpretations, Fibonacci Channels provide a more objective and structured outlook on market movements. Since people react to percentage changes rather than absolute values, the logarithmic scale— which represents price movements in percentage-based distances, provides a more accurate reflection of market behavior. As a result, most of Bitcoin’s major declines exhibit a consistent angle on a logarithmic chart, highlighting the recurring nature of these corrections. This reinforces the validity of using logarithmic-based Fibonacci analysis, as it objectively captures both the cyclical nature of price movements and the psychological impact of percentage-based fluctuations.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
1
Long sol Found a fractal of one of the hottest coins in the 2017 cycle, lets see if this plays out. Without discussion, I can assure that the casino of this cycle is trading memes on Solana. And crypto's main value proposition remains being a online casino that is open 24/7. Therefore, if we get another push from BTC followed by an alt season (BTC.D to >40%), I think this will play out accordingly. If I assign probabilities to this trade, I would say theres is a 50/50% chance we get an alt season and this plays out. Manage risk accordingly. Greetings, CG
Long
by Goblin777k
1
Multi-Timeframe Analysis - Week 08Tracking Key Levels: XAUUSD Monitors High-Timeframe POIs Amid Bullish Expansion Market Context Quarterly Chart XAUUSD remains in a bullish breakout, printing higher highs and higher lows for the last six quarters. No pullbacks in six quarters, reinforcing strong trend continuation. Monthly Chart February follows a short consolidation after expansion, with a slight pullback forming a ST-HL at 2536. Price closed above November’s open (2745) and remains above the ST-HH at 2780. Imbalance between 2770 (high) and 2730 (low) may act as a retracement zone, but a test is not required. Weekly Chart Week 07 closed bullish, but formed a long bearish wick toward the end of the week. Imbalance between 2860-2820 is expected to be tested in Week 08. No significant pullbacks since January 2025, reinforcing breakout structure. Daily Chart Consolidation range between 2940 high and 2860 low—key POIs for Week 08. Weekly levels at 2820-2860 remain critical for long re-entries. 4H Chart Price reached a high of 2942 and a low of 2860, consolidating through Thursday and Friday. Friday’s close near 2860 open price kept the range intact. Bearish signs have appeared, but HTF POIs remain in focus for buying interest. Plan for Week 08 Monitor HTF POIs Weekly imbalance at 2820-2860 is key for potential long re-entries. React to Price Action Look for reversal confirmations if buying interest appears at key levels. If buying pressure is weak, adjust the weekly plan accordingly. Stay Objective Ahead of Key Events FOMC on Wednesday & PMI on Friday could increase volatility. Watching for a bullish reversal pattern between Monday-Wednesday to confirm a weekly low. Be Open to Lower Prices if Momentum Shifts If bearish price action strengthens, lower prices could become a draw. No short positions unless confirmed selling pressure emerges. Reflection Prompt How does staying objective at key high-timeframe POIs improve execution and risk management in volatile market conditions? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PipsnPaper
M2 Peaking as Reverse Repo Drains to ZeroThe reverse repo balance at the Fed represents trapped liquidity. When this balance comes down it means liquidity is released into the economy and markets. The M2 level lags the change in reverse repo by about 300 days. Because reverse repo changes have been steady for some time, it is possible to draw a trajectory for reverse repo going to zero, and then M2 peaking out. This would coincide with a potential topping process for SPX as shown in the lower pane of the chart.
FRED:M2SLShort
by DarklyEnergized
The Daily Edge - 14th Feb 2025Bulls Hold Control as XAUUSD Targets Higher Prices Market Overview Thursday’s session confirmed bullish momentum, closing above Tuesday’s bearish open and establishing a new POI for long entries near 2910. Price opened and closed above 2900, forming a Short-Term Higher Low (ST-HL) at 2864 from Wednesday’s session. The weekly candle continues expanding bullishly, with 2942 as the first target and a possible extension to 3000. Key Observations Bullish structure intact: Thursday’s close above 2910 POI reinforces the uptrend. 4H chart confirms trend strength: Consolidation → Expansion → Retracement → Continuation pattern remains valid. Weekly expansion holding: Higher timeframe structure supports continued bullish momentum. Our Next Steps Manage long positions, holding as long as price respects the trend. Monitor 4H POIs at 2910 and 2920 for re-entry opportunities. Be mindful of pullbacks while momentum remains strong. How does recognizing higher timeframe expansion help refine trade entries and management? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipsnPaper
The Daily Edge - 13th Feb 2025XAUUSD Holds Above 2900 as Bullish Momentum Builds Market Overview Price tested 2870-2880 POI, reacted with a strong buying wick, and closed above 2900. The weekly profile suggests further continuation into Thursday and Friday. Re-entered long positions at POI using 4H chart confirmation. Key Observations 4H Chart Confirmation: Price consolidated before breaking out, with a high-volume node near 2870 acting as support. Inside Bar Formation: Price is stalling above 2900, signaling a potential breakout or downside fakeout. Our Next Steps Holding long positions, targeting previous ATHs. Monitoring 4H breakout structure: A break above 2922 signals further expansion. A fakeout below 2905 may offer another long re-entry. Primary target: 2950 ATH, with 3000 as an extended target. How does the 4H chart help refine confidence in trade entries within a larger trend? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipsnPaper
EUR/GBP -Precision Pays Off, TP Secured This EUR/GBP setup? No accident. Spotted the 5M CHoCH breaking the major Lower High—confirmation locked in. Saw the IDM sweep into my order block and knew exactly what was coming next. Waited patiently for that mini consolidation to break resistance, entered clean, and let the work I’ve put in speak for itself. TP smashed—planned, executed, delivered. This isn’t guesswork. It’s Smart Money flow mastered through hours of grind and focus. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
History is repeating itself for BNB...Hello Traders 🐺, Over the past few days, I’ve noticed that BNB is outperforming the overall market . After BTC.D consolidation , BNB started pumping , so I decided to publish an idea about it. When I opened the chart, I saw something magical unfolding—a true piece of art, honestly! So, as you can see in the chart, history is trying to repeat itself again . Let me explain it to you: After the formation of a double top , the price enters a consolidation phase , or even better to say, we see a correction . This phase usually coincides with the BTC season, where we observe the formation of a rising wedge. Then, the final phase begins when BTC.D starts dumping and the altcoin season kicks off . Right now, we are very close to breaking out of the rising wedge! 🚀 ( Remember, this is not financial advice, and always do your own research )
Long
by Kiu_Coin
AMD: Long-Term Structure For ResearchSince my line of work focuses on understanding and connecting scalable complexities, I require an interactive representation of the long-term market structure of an idea I published a while ago. These ideas will serve as a foundation for developing a probabilistic framework that accurately captures the underlying patterns and relationships governing price movements over time. And the only way to do that is through looking back how price reacts to those levels on the in the future. I'll use this research to enhance an indicator that would automatically output these levels based on historic price action before publishing it in pinescript. Source: Why I keep posting these unconventional analyses? I have a responsibility to those who follow my work, and I take that seriously. My goal is not just to share insights but to equip you with the knowledge and tools necessary to understand price dynamics at a deeper level — so you are never dependent on traditional technical analysts who share signals without worrying about potential negative impact. Many traders fall into the trap of relying on signals or surface-level analysis, only to find themselves caught in losing in the long-term. The harsh reality is that 90% of market participants fail — not due to bad luck, but because they adopt the same conventional strategies as the herd. You can't beat the market if you use same methods as majority operates on. Institutions using advanced trading algorithms are fully aware of the majority’s thinking patterns. They exploit predictable retail behavior, reacting to conventional technical analysis signals before the crowd does. This gives them a strategic edge, allowing them to absorb liquidity, trigger stop hunts, and manipulate price movements in ways most traders fail to anticipate. Blindly following common strategies ensures playing into their hands, reinforcing the cycle of retail losses.
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
9
TOTAL2: When I’ll Deploy My Stables Back Into the MarketTiming the market perfectly is impossible, but using TOTAL2 and RSI, we can identify high-probability opportunities. Here’s my approach for the coming years. I bought during the last dip, but my exposure is still less than what I sold before the crash. Here’s why. Key Signals for Tops & Bottoms RSI Patterns: - Market Tops: Weekly RSI above 85 signals overheated conditions but does not always lead to an immediate reversal. - Market Bottoms: Weekly RSI near 30 has historically marked strong accumulation zones. - In the last seven years, RSI hit 30 only twice—2018 and 2022. I expect this level again within the next 24 months. My plan: I will deploy capital heavily when RSI approaches 30 again, securing long-term positions. TOTAL 2 Scenarios: What Comes Next? Scenario 1: Price Discovery - If TOTAL 2 flips 2021 highs, ETH and altcoins will likely reach new all-time highs. - Weekly RSI could exceed 85, potentially reaching 95, indicating extreme overbought conditions. - I will take profits aggressively at this stage while also using a DCA strategy, as precise timing is never certain. Scenario 2: Lower Highs Persist - If RSI fails to reach overbought levels, this cycle may be weaker than expected. - The 50 RSI zone is critical—if it aligns with oversold conditions on daily or 3-day RSI, it may present a selective buying opportunity. - I have already taken partial profits since November 2024 to manage risk in case of this scenario. Scenario 3: RSI Drop to 30 - This scenario appears likely within the next 24 months and would mark a bear market low. - If BTC, ETH, and TOTAL 2 all hit 30 RSI, I will fully deploy stables with high conviction, considering it a generational buying opportunity. Final Thoughts Summary: I will increase exposure once RSI confirms strong long-term buy zones, but I am managing risk in the meantime. What’s your take? Do you expect RSI to revisit 30?
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by DonUpCrypto