BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle.
Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey.
The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same.
I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action.
Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut.
By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you.
Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
