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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin in a healthier position to move higher!The first push of BTC to over $70K in this bull cycle, the risk was becoming overheated quickly. The BTI indicator risk was around 7 to 7.25 and some indicators (e.g., the NUPL) were getting close to triggering. Now the overall risk is at a much healthier 5.59. Continued chop in this area will help further reset the individual BTI top indicators, but ultimately, we are poised to move higher. We have never reached a cycle top for BTC without the risk going to at least 10.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Da_Prof
4
Red Pill or Blue Pill? ETH's Path to $20KBased on recent market trends, ETH has nearly doubled since its rebound from the bottom. Currently trading below a key resistance level, the question arises - what's next for ETH - Red pill/line: ETH breaks through the $2k resistance level, paving the way for a significant bull run. - Blue pill/line: ETH retests the $1k support level, followed by a continuation of the 2020 market trend. Aside from Layer 2 (L2) solutions and meme-driven narratives, there is no new major story in the market. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision remains uncertain, and selling pressure from staked ETH adds to the mix. Considering these factors, I believe the blue scenario has a higher likelihood of playing out. TO DA MOOOOOOON!!! NOTE: Investors should always conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial investment advice.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by ryancao
3
Token not neededSolana attempted to be a layer 2 to ETH in the interim while ETH was building out proto danksharding. Narratives - 1. Base on ETH has began to garner a significant amount of capital. Solana's only value prop is memecoins. If a chain secured by Ethereum's base layer can do the same, what's the point of launching on Solana unless you're trying to run a pump and dump. 2. We're getting late in the cycle, especially if this cycle in the case of a left translated cycle. Majors topping and starting a bear market does not typically bode well for Solana.
Short
by limit_buy_69
Phemex Token (PTUSDT) Poised for a PullbackPT, the native token of the Phemex exchange (which I highly recommend for contract trading, by the way), has been on an impressive uptrend across higher timeframes since its listing on Spot six months ago and its recent entry on Futures just a couple of weeks back. Currently at its all-time high (ATH), I anticipate a correction on the 4H chart towards its support area at $1.03. This is supported by the bearish divergence evident in the MACD indicator. Let's observe how this plays out. Proposed Short Trade: Entry Price: 1.2 Take Profit: 1.03 Stop Loss: 1.27
Short
by alorse
Bitcoin cycles since 2011Each crypto cycle lasts about 4 years. The tops and bottoms of these cycles show striking similarities, often following a pattern that has repeated over the years. This isn't just coincidence—there are underlying factors that contribute to this consistency, making it vital to recognize these patterns in your trading strategy. If history repeats itself, we are looking for this cycle to top around 20 Oct 2025 with next low around 14 Sept 2026. It will be a wild ride. Buckle up!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarsisIO
1
The Bright Future of Ethereum"Past performance is no guarantee of future results" - We all know this famous phrase... Nonetheless, Ethereum still has a very bright future in the next decade. *Why I'm bullish on Ethereum:* - Every competing "superior" and newer blockchain (Fantom, Avalanche, Harmony, ...) includes EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) Compatibilty. - These types of products that are always compared with often have a long future, because they are the golden standard every competing company wants to be (Apple, Bitcoin, Tesla, ...) - Ethereum's transition to PoS will ensure lighter regulation compared to PoW Blockchains in the coming years, where sustainability and net zero emission is a core element of the global agenda. - Bankers & Wallstreet LOVE Ethereum because it is the backbone of every major DeFi Application that replaces traditional Financial Instruments (AAVE - Lending, UMA - Insurance, SNX - Derivatives, UNI -Exchanges, DAI - Stablecoins, LINK - Infrastructure, YFI - Asset Management) - The majority of the Web3 Economy builds upon Ethereum (Metaverses, DAOs) - ERC-721 (NFT's) are revolutionizing the art market. - ERC-1155 is revolutionizing the entire gaming Industry. (Enjin, Axie) - It is completely open source. *Possible bearish scenarios:* - Eth2.0 (if it ACTUALLY ever launches) is completely underwhelming. - Cryptocurrency gets banned in the United States as well. - "Black Swans" (Pandemics, Terrorism, War) - Vitalik Buterin gets caught in money laundering (?) and his holdings will be confiscated by the government. - Satoshi Nakamoto returns from the dead and dumps his entire BTC stack on the market, which will drag Ethereum with it. - Ethereum gets exploited. - Global Internet outage. To wrap it up: I'm bearish in the short term due to the extreme correlation with US Stocks and ETFs. ETH is still completely overbought on the monthly chart. I'm looking at price levels around $1'200, if there is a black swan event, even around $700 is a possibility. I hope you enjoyed my thoughts and analysis on Ethereum. May the fortune be with you :) -CYANE
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by cy4ne
2
ARB/USDT Trading ScenarioWe are considering a scenario of price movement for ARB. Currently, the asset is within a price range that attracts active market participants' interest. This interest is confirmed by the analysis of the volume profile and increased activity on the vertical histogram. The asset's price is currently below the resistance level at $1.2746, which is above the point of control at the price level of $1.1439, acting as support. We can expect a continuation of the upward movement upon overcoming the resistance level at the price of $1.2746 and consolidating above it. The next significant point may be the overcoming of the 200-day moving average, above which the resistance level is at the price of $1.6051.
by Rick_SimpleSwap
$WIF LONG - 2021 $DOGE vs 2024 $WIFCRYPTOCAP:WIF is the 2024 version of 2021 CRYPTOCAP:DOGE , except even better (wif a hat) similar chart structure strong advance up similar to CRYPTOCAP:DOGE , leading to ~3 month re-accumulation, targeting the same fib (14.618) which would be a 10x from here at ~ SGX:40B market cap ($42.069B market cap for the memes) would not fade the hat, this is the strongest meme coin on CRYPTOCAP:SOL , CRYPTOCAP:SOL is the strongest blockchain in the space, with all the mindshare currently. have been in this coin since december, at prices less than $0.10, and have added to my bags in this range. NFA GL HF. HAT. STAYS. ON. -@CryptoCurb
Long
by CryptoCurb
Is Bitcoin a leading indicator of inflation?INDEX:BTCUSD Bitcoin is regarded (in some circles) as both a store of value and an inflation hedge. But what if Bitcoin is a leading indicator of inflation? In the chart shown, we can see the various Bitcoin peaks over the years preceding local peaks in US CPI (orange). The US interest rate is in blue. The last 4 peaks in US CPI YoY have occurred between 6.4 and 8.5 months after a peak in Bitcoin's price. Specifically: June 2016 high - 37 weeks (8.5 months) later at 2.7% December 2017 high - 28 weeks (6.4 months) later at 2.9% June 2019 high - 31 weeks (7.1 months later) at 2.5% November 2021 high - 33 weeks later (7.6 months later) at 9.1% It's also worth noting that the sequence of highs is the same; both BTC and CPI have a lower high, a higher high, lower high, then higher high. The peaks in 2011 and 2013 coincided with CPI highs 15 and 26 weeks later, but 2016/2017 was the time when crypto first entered the public's awareness. So why does this happen? Do Bitcoin whales buying lambos stimulate inflation? I'm joking, but I genuinely don't know, and I hope someone can explain lol. I've wondered if it's a case of correlation in that rising inflation is usually a sign of easy financial conditions—the ideal conditions for a risk asset like BTC to pump—with Bitcoin being the first to benefit as the ultimate risk asset (at least in the world of mainstream finance). I'm not sure though. The most concerning thing is the implication. We recently just made another all-time high in Bitcoin, but CPI sits at 3.4% at the time of writing, having moved sideways for almost a year now. As for whether this is a crazy coincidence, or me reaching to an astronomical degree, I don't know. The average period of time over these last 4 periods is 32 weeks, or around October/November time. The only catalysts I see are the US government spending money like it's going out of fashion and rising commodity prices. I'll also note that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with lows in inflation. Personal opinion on inflation: US inflation is stalling, rising, and falling across different measures. Producer prices, services inflation, annual PCE, and some core measures are tilting up. The only real decline recently has been core CPI. It's also interesting to note that 1 and 5-year Michigan inflation expectations are 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Multiple Fed officials have been hawkish lately: Fed's Barr: Q1 inflation was disappointing, it did not provide the confidence needed to ease monetary policy. Fed's Mester: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Fed's Bostic: It would not surprise me if it took longer to get to 2% inflation in the US than elsewhere. Given that we've reached a peak in interest rates (for the time being) but inflation has been moving sideways for around a year now, something has to change. It could be argued that monetary policy still needs time to work, but that doesn't really mesh with measures of inflation stalling or rising over the past year. Wouldn't the lag effect continue working to drive inflation lower? Likewise, why would the US economy be growing as fast as it is? One or more of three things will need to change: inflation, unemployment, or interest rates. Unemployment is at 3.9%, low by historical standards but rising since early 2022. Inflation, especially with what we've seen here, may also be on the rise soon. If the main lever the Fed has is monetary policy, it faces a dilemma. The data doesn't support a rate cut right now, while unemployment is rising slowly. If inflation begins to rise again, it may need to hike interest rates—not ideal when Joe desperately needs one for the upcoming election. This scenario of high inflation and high unemployment—stagflation—is what JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been warning of : 'It’s a warning Dimon has issued before, previously saying he fears America is headed for a repeat of the 1970s when everything “felt great” and then quickly about-turned to a period of high unemployment and inflation paired with low demand, also known as “stagflation.” Appearing at AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference on Wednesday, Dimon said he simply can’t see how the past five years of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus could result in anything other than this scenario. As it stands, the US dollar looks ready to surge higher and clear 2023 highs: While SPY and BTC, adjusted for inflation (CPI figure taken from first day of trading), sit below their 2021 highs: I am aware that the human tendency to look for patterns and confirmation bias may be clouding my judgement. However, in my view, the market is severely underestimating the risk of higher inflation and a potential interest rate hike, which I believe will drive the dollar higher throughout the rest of 2024. According to the Bitcoin chart, another wave of inflation could be back above 7%+. I personally find that hard to imagine, but second round effects in the 1970s saw inflation shoot past its previous peak. Deutsche Bank has drawn parallels with the 1970s . Long-term views: Long USD, Oil Short risk assets (equities, crypto) Unsure on gold and silver but skewed lower For these views to be truly validated, I would like to see: TVC:DXY above 105.75 NYMEX:CL1! above 84 AMEX:SPY below 494 NASDAQ:QQQ below 414 INDEX:BTCUSD below 56,500 This is not financial advice, nor a recommendation. I wrote this to bring attention to something strange I'd found, and strongly encourage you to do your own research. Thank you for reading.
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSD
by pasojov
23