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Economic Cycles

Differentiate between rate cut and low interest rateNo important economic data from US this week, only trade balance and initial claims to observe on Tue and Thu respectively. US stock market continued decline on Fri, following weakening labor market conditions and earnings from big tech companies last week. In expectations of rate cut, big shots are reducing portfolios. The situation may last until we actually see the first rate cut in the cycle and longer. The rise in stocks is usually associated with low interest rate, I would expect the adjustment in S&P to continue along the path of rate cut. So investors should differentiate between rate cut action and low interest rate, which are presented as two distinguished market conditions.
SP:SPXShort
by moncap2023
Post Halving: BTC Loves Sep and OCTBTC is currently sitting just below 61K and is not ready for the next leg up. We have been stuck in consolidation since the recent ~73K high back in March 2024 and the logarithmic weekly charts shows that BTC has been trending in this rising channel since November 2022. Judging from the previous trends seen in the past two halving events (see below) we are likely to see a massive liquidity sell off prior to the next explosive move to new all-time highs. We can very much continue consolidating within the current ~60k – 70k range but I think we need this sell off to happen in order to go higher. Big players like banks and institutions place massive orders and trade massive positions that drive price higher. Nothing fundamentally has changed and BTC is likely to see a new all-time high, but in order for that to happen, the big players require liquidity. I think we are due for one more sell off prior to new highs and the charts point towards a likely liquidity grab at around ~52K. At that level I expect confluence from the 50 EMA to catch up to price and for 52k support to be retested along with trend line confluence from the rising channel. This will place us roughly around Sep/Oct and BTC loves Sep and Oct. Best of Luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LaMASIA_100
Short trade Sat 3rd Aug 24 Tokyo Session AM Sellside trade 2 Tokyo Session AM 21.00p m (NY Time) Entry 60428.5 Profit level 58115.4 (3.83%) Stop level 61110.5 (1.13%) RR 3.39 Update.... The resilience of Bitcoin's price amidst economic downturn and stock market crashes highlights its potential role as a hedge and store of value. However, the overall decline in price and high volatility indicate that the cryptocurrency market is not entirely insulated from broader economic trends. Forecast: Lower prices in my humble opinion.
Short
by davidjulien369
#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory 🚦Today I saw a headline that surprised me "The current bear market has become the longest in the history of the crypto industry"📰 And I had a question about whether they were living in the past, or where they saw the bear market.🤔 💡I want to remind you that it ended with a duration of exactly one year, just like the last cycle. And it was much shorter than in 2014. Now CRYPTOCAP:BTC is +70% from the bottom, this is a classic phase of accumulation.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FeelsStrategy
Short trade Sat 3rd Aug 24 Tokyo Session AM Sellside Tokyo Session AM 2:45 am (NY Time) Entry: 61544.8 Profit Level: 58073.9 (5.64%) Stop Level: 61848.5 (0.49%) RR: 11.43 News driver: Bitcoin Price Update The Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin, which reflects the general sentiment in the market, indicates a moderate level of fear, suggesting cautious sentiment among investors. Here are the key points based on the provided information: Bitcoin Price and Market Statistics: Price: £48,203.96 24-Hour Change: -4.11% Market Cap: £951,301,309,285.94 Circulating Supply: 19,734,921 BTC Max Supply: 21,000,000 BTC 24-Hour Trading Volume: £42 billion Economic Indicators and Stock Market: Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: The Fed aims to balance maximum employment with stable prices. Recession Signals: Indications that the US may already be in a recession. Unemployment Rate: 4.3% Stock Market: Significant crash resulting in a loss of £3 trillion in value. Bitcoin Resilience: Despite the economic downturn and stock market crash, Bitcoin's price has shown resilience, holding relatively well. Conclusion The resilience of Bitcoin's price amidst economic downturn and stock market crashes highlights its potential role as a hedge and store of value. However, the overall decline in price and high volatility indicate that the cryptocurrency market is not entirely insulated from broader economic trends. Forecast - lower prices in my humble opinion.?
Short
by davidjulien369
GBP JPY - not over yet on the weekly TFMaster Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Weekly zone Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
Short
by LupaCapital
Ethereum Keltner Channel 👀ETH reached local resistance in the form of the red zone of the channel, faster than the last cycle. What does this tell us? The consolidation before the next move may be longer. 🤔Most will say that ETH has not reached ATH yet, so it should go up right now, I can say that ETH mostly lags in taking past highs and does it sometime after that like Bitcoin did. 💡And the phase of more active growth is at the end of the cycle, so be patient and the market will thank you with a profit.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by FeelsStrategy
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis Expecting Nikkei (NKD) to Extend Short Term Elliott Wave in Nikkei (NKD) suggests the Index shows short term incomplete bearish sequence from 7.10.2024 high favoring further downside. Decline from 7.10.2024 is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.10.2024 high, wave (W) ended at 37395. Rally in wave (X) ended at 39318 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 38785 and wave B ended at 37395. Wave C higher ended at 39318 which completed wave (X) in higher degree. The Index has turned lower in wave (Y) with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave (X), wave ((i)) ended at 37405 and wave ((ii)) ended at 38010. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 36465 and wave ((iv)) ended at 36920. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 36165 which completed wave A in higher degree. Wave B rally is in progress to correct cycle from 7.31.2024 high before it turns lower. Near term, while below 39318, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W). This area comes at 30932 – 34135 where buyers can appear for further upside, or 3 waves rally at least.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Current BTC Cycle and the 2017 Cycle FractalSome Grade A, premium BTC hopium for you: If the 2017 cycle price action is reduced down slightly (price, not timing) and lined up with the first peak of the 2021 cycle double top (in April 2021), the price action on a macro scale is eerily similar, especially for the bottom range and the run up. Recently, price overextended from the 2017 fractal during the ETF pump, but has now converged back to the 2017 fractal. If we continue on with this fractal, BTC will top out at around $580K in April 2025. That's about a 9x. I personally don't think it will hit that target, but I'm hear for it if it does! -Da_Prof
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Da_Prof
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