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Economic Cycles

Break or Bounce On The Dollar As Interest Rate Cut Looms?With the Fed poised to cut rates at September's meeting, the dollar hovers at the key 100 key monthly level which, on a normal occasion, would serve as a clear support but after such a long awaited rate cut, which would devalue the dollar even further, one cannot be so sure. Technically, there are no real indicators of price shifting structure to the upside as yet but with price in a Daily bullish order block, monitoring its development over the course of this week will be key. EurUsd & UsdZar are not in ideal trading conditions and so will not be on my radar this week unless price action develops further. GbpJpy however continues to trade higher from a Weekly order block and is currently encountering resistance from a 4H order block which may result in a slight correction before we continue higher into Daily equilibrium.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only. RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs. This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now. The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry. Lets get to it. Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention. Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing. Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell? For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move. Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
NYMEX:RBU2024
by Tradius_Trades
DJI 8/26~30 LONG Forecast 1D Chart / LONG Technical Grounds -NV > +250M -TV Strong buy -LinReg Pearson <0.95 -Pivots HL still Long-Green -LinReg > 90 degrees (uptrend) -Reverse Head & Shoulders Formation -NV shows a declination trend of negative bars -Price crossed up SMA100, SMA20 & LinReg Mid Line -Price crossed up index resistance on past Aug 15th -Price level far from cyclic ending point of Sep 13th -POLITICAL FACTOR: Elections coming / +Media Influence -Fed announcing interest rate cuts (as political influence in elections / investors mindset) SHIBUSDT / LONG ....
DJ:DJILong
by SolutionsforallNet
Short trade Australia, NZ Dollars Near Major Resistance as US Yields Decline The Australian and New Zealand dollars are approaching key resistance levels, driven by declining U.S. yields. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a notably hawkish stance on the economic outlook. Consequently, markets are currently pricing with only a 16% chance of a rate cut in September, with a 50% probability of a quarter-point reduction in November. We are therefore tracking to confirm if Sellers push for lower gains indicating the Demand zone 1.08980 to 1.08100. As a result, we anticipate a rebound from the strong support level and reversal to previous higher highs and the price level of 1.10208. Short trade idea...? Date & Time: Thursday, 22nd August 2024, 5:00 AM Session: London to New York Session (AM) Entry Price: 1.09399 Profit Target: 1.09112 Stop Loss: 1.09531 Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.17
Short
by davidjulien369
DOLLAR down BITCOIN upThe DOLLAR is the worlds #1 trade and reserve currency #GOLD is the KING of Anti Fiat #Bitcoin is attempting to replace GOLD in the mindshare of people (to a certain extent it has, considering from where it started from just a brief 15 years ago) So observing the major trends of the #DXY is crucial to determine how to place your bets and how much risk you should be taking on. *** The caveat being that the DXY is just measuring the dollar mainly against the Euro and various other major Fiats that become more worthless over the years ... so these decades long gyrations don't actual show you how poorly these #fiat currencies store your value.**** I believe #Crypto is on the cusp of some spectacular returns The #BTC.d will soon reverse You will see #Ethereum and the # altcoins gain some real strength once grayscale has sold down much of it's ETH holdings. The 4 year cycle is back on track ... after running too soon in the cycle. Historically Q4 of a Bitcoin halving year is the start of some explosive up moves. We have been waiting 4 years for this... Do you want to wait another 4 years for 2028 to experience the next Crypto meltup?
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
BTCUSD | CORRECTION HAS NOT FINISHED YETInstead of having simple ABC correction in 4th wave, Bitcoin is moving to complex one - WXY, We have a Zig-Zag to 50% correction level for 3rd wave. Probable future scenarios: - one more Zig-Zag up to ~65k or even slightly more, and after it final Zig-Zag down to previous levels: ~52k-50k; - final Zig-Zag from current levels down to the same levels ~52k-49k or slightly deeper to previous wave support levels ~45k-42k. After that, Bitcoin will go to final 5th wave of bull cycle. Hold your cash ready for one more deep dive.
by Lucique_
SHIBU BULLISH - SHORT TERM JUMPBased on the technical signals, we're expecting a 5-15% bullish run that coincides with our Ultra Bull signal. These signals are designed to identify institutional support in the near term. Overall outlook is somewhat bearish, but this could be an interesting swing trade. Based on the trading chart for SHIB/USD on the 1-hour timeframe from Coinbase, here is a technical analysis: Trend Overview: - The chart shows a general downward trend for SHIB/USD over the past several months, with the price consistently declining from late April through mid-August. - The presence of multiple "ULTRA BEAR" labels indicates a strong bearish sentiment during this period, as the price continued to drop with little to no significant bullish reversals. - There are a few instances where "ULTRA BULL" signals appeared, but they were short-lived and did not significantly change the overall bearish trend. Technical Indicators: - All three moving averages (EMA, SMA, VWMA) are showing values around 0.00001414, 0.00001413, and 0.00001413 respectively. These averages suggest that SHIB/USD has been consolidating at these levels recently, but the overall trend has remained bearish. - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**: - The MACD value is extremely low at 0.00000002, which might indicate a lack of momentum in either direction. The MACD histogram also suggests minimal bullish or bearish momentum currently, aligning with the sideways movement seen in the last part of the chart. Backtesting and Performance Summary: - The backtesting section shows a net profit of $63,957.81 USD (6.40%) with a profit factor of 1.99. This indicates that while the strategy was profitable, it involved significant risk as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of $37,610.82 USD (3.62%). - The average trade is worth $1,827.37 USD, with an average trade return of 1.83%. This suggests that the trading strategy applied has been more consistent with small, but positive gains. Key Observations: - **Bearish Dominance**: The consistent appearance of "ULTRA BEAR" labels reinforces the dominant bearish trend. The few "ULTRA BULL" signals indicate minor, short-term recoveries but are not enough to reverse the overall trend. - **Consolidation Phase**: In the latter part of the chart, there seems to be a phase of consolidation where the price is moving sideways, with the price struggling to move above the resistance levels. - **Potential Reversal**: The last "ULTRA BULL" signal around mid-August suggests a potential, though tentative, shift towards a bullish phase. However, this would require further confirmation by breaking key resistance levels and seeing sustained upward movement. Conclusion: The overall sentiment for SHIB/USD remains bearish, with occasional short-term bullish signals that have not yet resulted in a trend reversal. Traders should be cautious of the current consolidation phase, and any significant movement above the resistance levels would be needed to consider a bullish trend. For now, the prevailing bearish sentiment suggests that downward pressure may continue unless a strong reversal signal emerges.
COINBASE:SHIBUSDLong
by UltraAlgo