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Economic Cycles

Mixed Reviews In Market Direction🟡Breadth - Stocks Above 50 Day 🔴 AMEX:SPY Red Light 🟢 AMEX:IWM Green Light 🟢 TVC:VIX Green Light 🔴Leaders NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMCI NYSE:CPNG They are not leading but it's also feeling like there might be a changing of the guard or at least some of the guards? (New Leaders Emerge) 🟡Risk Appetite 🟢 NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:DJT 🔴 NASDAQ:SOUN CRYPTOCAP:BTC 👆Feels like risk appetite is mixed but still there. Love to hear some others thoughts on that risk appetite.
TVC:VIX
by JoelTCampbellJr
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Approaching 2024 Altcoin SeasonLooking at the 1W time frame of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, it looks like it's time for the market to transition from being primarily Bitcoin-dominated to altcoin-dominated. We've seen the writing on the wall with Bitcoin making headline after headline regarding United States Spot ETFs or the halving event. Now that the majority of investors are sucked into Bitcoin, timeline shifts into altcoins. We can see that through the news now with the attention picking up on Ethereum (not discrediting Solana growth by any means, it's still small enough in market cap where it doesn't marginally change the TOTAL2 cap or this chart). Ethereum has the impending United States Spot ETFs approval as well as regulatory clarity coming around Uniswap, and from that I'd assume we'd get some sort or clarity regarding memecoins as well, sending that respective market flying with a green light for institutional investors to invest. Bitcoin is trying to grab attention or hold it's relativity now with Ordinals and L2s, and that's great! Let's say though you buy PUPS, that's considered part of TOTAL2 or bringing down the capitalization of Bitcoin relative to the rest of the crypto market. I'm expecting this trend to continue where Bitcoin holders are using their coins on-chain for these activities, ultimately dragging the BTC.D cap down with it. This time around, I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the previous 72.04% level due to the sheer amount of tokens and liquidity flying around these smid caps. Each Bitcoin Dominance cycle or Bitcoin cycle for that matter, the altcoin seasons get less and less intense due to the amount of relativity they have compared to Bitcoin at all seasons instead of just during altcoin season. Around this 55% range is mid-range of this free-fall seen in 2021, and where orders are resting. We could see Bitcoin Dominance either range in this area or start free-falling, either way I don't see a market where we re-claim that 72.04% or push much higher for that matter. Also, hearing a lot of talk about this cycle being over, cannot tell if they're joking or not, but we haven't seen that altcoin season euphoria yet. That is yet to come. An interesting observation here we can see the 2021 altcoin season took 1085 days to build up from the bottom to the top of Bitcoin dominance, and this 2024 season is right on par with that 1085 days before the cycle ultimately starts. This Bitcoin cycle is a little bit different, so we'll see how this chart plays out this time around, but I remember last cycle, 2021, I called the 72.04% Bitcoin Dominance wick to the Tee. Could be longer, who knows, but so far this chart is playing out and figured I'd give an update. The 2021 altcoins season lasted almost that full year of 2021, but as we can see on the chart, the major move happened between January - May 2021, those 5 months. If history were to repeat itself, we should see this cycle's main move play out in 5 months too.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by kyer
BTC : Inverse head and shoulders, target 330K ? We have just completed a 7-month uncorrected rise to 74k. At this level, the weekly RSI showed a point of resistance. Recently, at the 67k level, the moving averages, stochastics and daily RSI provided an excellent short-term trend reversal point, which could very easily be anticipated. The monthly RSI, too close to resistances, also indicated the need for a healthy correction and stabilization on the part of the king of cryptos, in order to be able to pursue a sufficiently long and appreciable bullrun part 2 and not a flash in the pan. This consolidation would not prevent an alt season from starting quietly once BTC has found its lowest point (the 45-48k zone is ideal), which could be found fairly quickly over the next few weeks. It's possible that the strong hands will attempt an extreme low wick to try to get the smaller investors out of the market, generally we'll hear the youtubers go bearish with headlines like “Bitcoin in Danger / Bear Market?” and this will be the absolute time to strengthen positions, then Jamie Dimon will have been able to load all his bags at a good price, and will say he was wrong, that bitcoin is great and we'll be trending towards the pattern target I'm presenting. It's worth noting that ethereum is beginning to look stronger than btc, with the ETH/BTC pair showing a weekly bullish divergence currently in formation (yet to be validated). So, my scenario is therefore one of inverted head and shoulders, with a right shoulder forming at current levels. This structure will easily provide the momentum needed to win the battle against the 100k resistance, unlike if we'd tried it now and not braked immediately. Don't forget that there are huge, highly anticipated crypto projects coming out in the last quarter, and the big hands want a long bullrun. These big projects don't want to launch on a cycle top. You might think everyone will take profits at 120K, but I think the media hype around breaking the 100K barrier will lead to a massive influx of retail investors and huge investors through ETFs, making this level easily surpassable. This bull run will probably go down in history! Cheers! Btc / Eth / Dosu (Doginal Kabosu on DRC20) investor. Dosu is the bet I'm making as the Shiba of this cycle. Crypto friend since 2017
Long
by CryptoKook_Main
GameFi: Top Sector for 2024 with Huge Potential🚀🚀🚀The GameFi sector, a fusion of gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi), has emerged as one of the most promising areas within the cryptocurrency landscape. This sector has gained significant traction in recent years, attracting both gamers and investors seeking exposure to innovative blockchain-based applications. What is GameFi? GameFi revolutionizes traditional gaming by introducing play-to-earn mechanics, where players can earn rewards in the form of cryptocurrencies or non-fungible tokens (NFTs) for their in-game activities. This integration of blockchain technology into gaming ecosystems creates a new paradigm where players can monetize their time and effort, fostering a more engaged and ownership-oriented gaming experience. Top 5 GameFi Projects with High Growth Potential in 2024: Immutable X (IMX): A layer-2 scaling solution for the Ethereum network, Immutable X focuses on enhancing the user experience for NFT-based games. It offers gas-free minting and trading of NFTs, making it an attractive platform for game developers and players alike. Price Prediction: I anticipate a sweep of local lows and a retest of the $1.4 level, followed by a potential surge towards $5. Floki Inu (FLOKI): A dog-themed meme coin with a strong community and a focus on developing a decentralized gaming metaverse called Valhalla. Floki's price action has exhibited consistent retests of its ascending support line. Price Prediction: I expect the third retest of the trendline to be a fakeout, leading to a downward move to capture liquidity below. Gala (GALA): A blockchain-based gaming platform aiming to create an interconnected ecosystem of games and NFTs. Gala has formed a significant liquidity pool beneath well-defined lows while simultaneously establishing lower highs (without sweeping liquidity above). Price Prediction: I anticipate a sweep from below to initiate a more accelerated upward trajectory. Axie Infinity (AXS): A pioneer in the GameFi space, Axie Infinity gained immense popularity in 2021. The project features a unique gameplay where players breed, battle, and trade Axie creatures, represented by NFTs. Price Prediction: I expect a retest of the 0.5 imbalance level and the $4.6 price point. Illuvium (ILV): An open-world fantasy RPG built on the Ethereum blockchain, Illuvium combines immersive gameplay with NFT ownership and play-to-earn mechanics. The project has gained significant traction in recent months. Price Prediction: I anticipate a fakeout breakout at the bottom of the bearish flag pattern, followed by a swift upward movement. The GameFi sector presents a compelling investment opportunity in the dynamic cryptocurrency market. The integration of gaming and DeFi offers a unique value proposition, attracting both gamers and crypto enthusiasts. The projects mentioned above, each with their distinct features and growth potential, are worth considering for those seeking exposure to the promising GameFi landscape.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
2
Trade OpportunityNew World Capital - Article 5 FOREXCOM:US30 US30 is moving exactly as predicted with liquidity grabs happening here and there as the ones that happen today around $38,276. We still hold two profitable positions and are looking to add to our current lot when the profit of the second position is equal to the loss set of the first position. That is the best way to scale in and double or triple an account from a good move. Total Profit = ∑Pn + ∑¹n∞ with P(n+1) = Pn + P(n+1) Pn = ∑¹n₁₅ P1 = P₀ + P₁ P2 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ P3 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ P4 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ P5 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ P₆ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ P₇ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ P₈ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ P₉ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ P₁₀ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ P₁₁ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ P₁₂ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ P₁₃ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ + P₁₃ P₁₄ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ + P₁₃ + P₁₄ P₁₅ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ + P₁₃ + P₁₄ + P₁₅ Buy ( 2X ) US30 @$38000 - $37800 TP@ $38539 SL@ $37655 Risk: 1% - 10% Reward: 7%+ - 70%+ Day Trade
FOREXCOM:US30Long
by godoffinances
Trade OpportunityNew World Capital - Article 5 OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is moving exactly as predicted with liquidity grabs happening here and there as the ones that happen today around $2,329. We still hold two profitable positions and are looking to add to our current lot when the profit of the second position is equal to the loss set of the first position. That is the best way to scale in and double or triple an account from a good move. Total Profit = ∑Pn + ∑¹n∞ with P(n+1) = Pn + P(n+1) Pn = ∑¹n₁₅ P1 = P₀ + P₁ P2 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ P3 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ P4 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ P5 = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ P₆ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ P₇ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ P₈ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ P₉ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ P₁₀ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ P₁₁ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ P₁₂ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ P₁₃ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ + P₁₃ P₁₄ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ + P₁₃ + P₁₄ P₁₅ = P₀ + P₁ + P₂ + P₃ + P₄ + P₅ + P₆ +P₇ + P₈ + P₉ + P₁₀ + P₁₁ + P₁₂ + P₁₃ + P₁₄ + P₁₅
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by godoffinances
Time to spend some time below With all the uncertainty surrounding the external factors holding down Bitcoin and the similar picture we see being painted from past cycles - we are in for a downturn in my opinion to shake out the rest of this leverage in the system. ETF buying positions will start to not look so fantastic in a few weeks. I will post a full detail report later on my thesis behind the case. I am starting to feel more comfortable about posting ideas - beforehand I was more nervous about the topic. I rather keep my nose to the grindstone and keep on keeping on. COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by McQuade_
XAUUSD Key Levels of Accumulation and MarkupThis is Gold on the last 10 years, its possible to see clearly the Accumulation ranges, which later expand to new ranges above, and starts a new Accumulation range. In the long term, all the currencies tend to lose value in relation to Gold, this is why in the last 10 years we only see Accumulation + Markup + Accumulation + Markup, and never a Distribution phase. It's interesting how gold has been expanding the same size of around 2.970 pips on the ranges of accumulations. It make these key levels even more clear and stronger. Also observe the mean on the 50% of the ranges, it has great opportunities to use mean reversal strategies to sell on the top of the range, and buy on the bottom. And for intraday trading we can use this levels to understand areas where buyers and sellers has more strength.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by torricelly
How is ETH?📉3107 support breaking it can be interesting, I wanted to get in, but for some reason, the risk is high. 1. ethbtc is bullish 2. The volume of the market is usually low on Saturdays Therefore, we can enter the position with a very low risk, but with the view that the probability of a stop is high, and when it reaches R2, we can close the position or at least take a risk. Let's open SHORT, it's definitely more attractive A rise is also possible with a trend line break as ETHBTC is bullish but I know the market is in a bigger cycle correction and the trend is bearish in LWC and MWC. ⚠️Don't forget capital management⚠️
Short
by parsa_xa
2
How the Halving Will Impact the Bitcoin Market ? Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Overview and Its Impact on the Market Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduces the reward for miners who validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the finite supply of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins. Objectives of Halving Controlled Inflation: Halving aims to counteract the inflationary effects of new Bitcoin creation by gradually reducing the issuance rate. This helps maintain the scarcity of the asset and its value over time. Unlike fiat currencies, where central banks can arbitrarily print money, Bitcoin's halving mechanism ensures a predictable and finite supply, preventing uncontrolled inflation. Sustainable Network Growth : By slowing down the mining reward, halving encourages miners to operate more efficiently and focus on long-term network security rather than solely pursuing short-term profits. This shift incentivizes miners to invest in reliable hardware and infrastructure, ensuring the stability and resilience of the Bitcoin network. BraveNewCoin Liquid index Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price increases. This can be attributed to several factors: Supply Reduction: As the mining reward decreases, the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market slows down. This reduced supply, coupled with consistent demand, can lead to price appreciation. For instance, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged by over 200% within a year. Market Anticipation: Investors often anticipate the positive impact of halving on price and start buying Bitcoin in advance of the event, driving up demand and price. This phenomenon is evident in the price movements leading up to each halving event. Psychological Effect: Halving serves as a milestone in Bitcoin's roadmap, reinforcing its scarcity and long-term potential, attracting more investors and boosting market sentiment. The halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's finite supply and its potential as a store of value. The Upcoming Halving in April 2024 The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 19, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event is highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community, and many analysts and experts are predicting a substantial price increase following the halving. Price Predictions: While price predictions are inherently uncertain, some analysts have made projections based on historical trends and market sentiment: Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024 Pantera Capital: Over $147,000 in 2025 Bernstein: Potential rally in mining company stocks Potential Correction: While many anticipate a price surge, some analysts caution against excessive optimism and acknowledge the possibility of a temporary price correction following the halving: JPMorgan: Price could drop to $42,000 Implications for Miners With the reduced mining reward, miners need to adapt their operations to remain profitable. This may involve: Optimizing Mining Efficiency: Miners will need to upgrade their hardware or switch to more energy-efficient mining pools to reduce operational costs. This could lead to consolidation in the mining industry, as less efficient miners may be forced to exit the market. Focusing on Transaction Fees: As the block reward decreases, transaction fees will become a more significant source of income for miners. This may encourage miners to support initiatives that increase network usage and transaction volume. Diversifying Revenue Streams: Miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as offering mining services or developing other blockchain-related products. This diversification could help miners adapt to the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape. Conclusion Bitcoin halving is a crucial event that shapes the cryptocurrency landscape. While it has historically led to price appreciation, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to be a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Additional Notes: The halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's code and is an automated mechanism, not influenced by any individual or organization. This decentralized nature ensures the integrity and predictability of the halving process. Halving events occur at predetermined intervals and are not subject to any changes or delays. This fixed schedule provides miners and investors with clear expectations and allows for informed decision-making. The halving mechanism is designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of Bitcoin by maintaining its finite supply and aligning incentives for miners. This carefully crafted design contributes to Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a long-term asset.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko