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Economic Cycles

UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOKUNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between: 1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE), 2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and 3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars) Historically, the general play book / sequence of events suggest once we break the 21 Day SMA (orange line), it is the start of unemployment unwinding and we lead into a recession. As the 'FED FUNDs RATE' is the artificial tool used to 'Guide' the credit market (politically correct explination), the obvious question then is; "What is the relationship / behavior of interest rates historically with this trend? Are we experiencing similar behaviour to the last 30 - 40 years?" The Red line show the FED funds rate on the chart. The below sequence of events show how these variable play with each other: The story goes: the FED increases the 'FED FUNDS RATE' (aka interest rates) because low periods of interest rates is resulting in a 'HOT' economy and causing inflation (i.e. market forces the FEDs hand to raise interest rates as the return for lending money to credit markets does not match the current risks). At some point during interest rate rises: 1) FED rise in interest rates is held constant (the lagging effect of higher rates start to hit the economy resulting in slowing down economic activity - i.e. spending) 2) Record low unemployment starts to rise (Cross of 21D SMA historically has signaled a point of no return) 3) Fed start to drop rates due to employment increase, deflationary market disruption 4) Unemployment begins to rapidly increase 5) Recession WHERE ARE WE NOW? According to this play book, we are in currently in step 2 and approaching point 3 . If you find this post interesting, you may find my discussion around the 2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds Rate interesting. This relationship is what I was using to speculate interest rate rises before they happened, and that they would be higher than people were expecting when there was talk of rates rising... The Market in all cases will eventually win...
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Brodie
1
AUD USD - bulls on parade towards 0.70G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. The video explains it all - Daily and weekly timeframe for reference Daily PCP - using Rally, base rally scenario. Bearish Daily move Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
Long
by LupaCapital
XRP - Increase Possible after THIS LEVELXRP - it's possible that the bottom may be near, and we're going to use a technical indicator to look for the bottom. It should be noted that I am NOT a fan of XRP BUT, I understand tat all coins are tradable despite whether or not I like them. So let's dive into the SIGNS of the times: Looking at the RSI below the chart, historically XRP bottoms are close when the RSI hit's the yellow line (34). It could trade lower for a few ore weeks to come, but ultimately this low RSI signals the bottom is either in or close. It is also worth noting that the M-Pattern should be finished playing out, or close to finished: Either way, if you MUST trade XRP, buy low and sell high. Bag holders gets burnt! ____________________________ BINANCE:XRPUSDT
by CryptoCheck-
Short Term Distribution Bearish XAUUSDShort Term Distribution is showing us that we are likely to move to the downside with the formation of the Test. I aim to take this short to 2300 but managing risk is always important in any position. This setup is 7/10 however i would still risk 0.5 or 0.75% for this setup. And if fails go for the one above as im confident in this schematic. We are in a long term accumulation which is what we do have to take into account so looking for the point where we pivot to the upside and take profits in this short is what i would suggest using fibs or other methods. This is not financial advice , trade at your own risk.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by sayrylparra
Is Bitcoin dominance on the verge of collapse?For anyone interested in crypto tokens that are not Bitcoin or Ethereum, you’ll want to give this post your full attention! The above 10 day chart is very important for anyone speculating on alt tokens. The highlights: 1) Bitcoin dominance support and RSI support have broken market structure. That’s not my opinion, it is a fact of the chart. 2) Significant bearish divergence has printed at the breakout. Look left. (little red/green shapes). The number of oscillators printing divergence is shown. The higher the number the more significant the divergence. The divergence is measured over a period of weeks. 3) Support was held for 2.5 years (930/950 days) before the break of market structure. This is exactly the same length of time during dominance support from 2017 until 2019. Coincidence? 4) Given point 1 through 3, what happened to the alt token market from the period of November 2019 until May 1st 2021? Significant gains. See chart below. 5) This is all good news for alt tokens, right? Yes and no. In the “Alt token market to 10x” idea (link below) it was written “Not all tokens will enjoy gains in this bull run”. That remains the situation, legacy tokens such as ADA, DASH, EOS, LTC, MATIC, etc.. they continue to show no signs of supporting market structure on either USD or BTC pairs . Maybe that changes in time, but for now, no. Ww Alt token market November 2019 until May 1st 2021
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by without_worries
23
AAPL Signals Short Term DropOf the 71 times AAPL triggers a sell on my RSI indicator (the magenta arrow at the bottom of the chart), the stock drops 97.143% of the time in the following 25 trading days. During 37% of the successful drops, the stock moves upward for 1-4 more days after the signal occurs in what I call the delay period. What qualifies as a successful drop? The sell signal was triggered based on the closing price of AAPL stock on July 10, 2024 at 232.98. This means 97% of the time the stock will move below this closing price in the near-term. 2.85% of the time, the stock does not drop below this price over the following 25 trading days. The stock has always dropped below the signal closing price by at least 0.266% over the next 100 trading days. On the chart above, the red boxes at the top are the delay zones of interest. The larger red box contains 100% of all delayed movement. The smaller box contains the stock's top or peak of the delay for 50% of the occasions. The same holds true for the two large green target boxes on the bottom. The final downward movement bottoms in the smaller green box 50% of the time, while the much larger green box contains bottoms or valleys for all downward movement. This delay period of potential continued upward movement has historically had a maximum 3% gain before the stock eventually dropped. Regarding the bottom of the drop. Over the next 25 bars, it can occur on any day in the range with the median bottom occurring by day 8. 75% of the bottoms have occurred before day 18. The stock drops a minim of 0.266%, and median of 5.021%. 25% of the bottoms are no lower than 2.152%, while 75% of the drops are 8.3% or less. The four shallowest drops over the next 25 days have been 0.266% (September 2010), 0.312% (February 2017), 0.827% (March 2019), and, 0.868% (August 2020) while the four deepest drops have been 63.23% (August 2000), 26.58% (December 1999), 26.51% (January 2006), and 24.80% (September 1999). The most recent double-digit percentage drop was 15% in April 2019. All shallow drops occurred in the most recent strong bull market, while the largest drops were part of the dot-com bubble burst. While this current potential drop will likely avoid the sharper end of sell-offs, it is always interesting to see the strength and accuracy of signals. Historical movement is not indicative of future movement, but it is good to have as a data point.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by StockSignaler
YAO QALA1$TB:PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY.by TR3FSP3AK$A proper risk management strategy that can be used as a jacket through the winter nights,makes it more convenient for a sole trader to calculate their Risk/Reward ratio with not so too many RSI,VOLUMES,SCHOCHASTICS,etc(indicators)or as i always say clean charts give a clear view of the HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWS of the MARKET makes it easier to execute a trade with calculated but a PURE PRICE ACTION System for more details contact my profile for more depth TR3FSP3AK$
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by thapelomolefe
1
ETC/USD Main trend. Fractal cyclic structureLogarithm. Time frame 1 week. The main trend. Duplicated on the exchange OKX, a little added to understand the logic and accuracy, as on the exchange poloniex, there is no liquidity. If something happens to have an idea on a more liquid exchange. As this cryptocurrency is interesting. Major trend. Channel. Publication 01 2023 Linear Now in Moment. Local now at the moment. Locally. Let me remind you that from the main zone of the cryptocurrency set (horizontal channel) the average price is now exactly +84%. Compared to other assets, during the transition from the accumulation phase to the participation phase (Dow), the price did not increase very much compared to other cryptocurrencies. That is, a conditionally lagging asset. A triangle is forming . In a localized rising set trend. From this zone, about 40-50% left to the rounded bottom resistance zone (final accumulation phase). Then it will be business as usual, on stocks or liquid cryptocurrencies. Breakout of resistance, perhaps not immediately, but that's not the point. After breakout, consolidation, then re test and news negative/positive. Confirmation, and the beginning of strong, conditionally irrevocable impulsive movements into the zone of “news perspective of this blockchain”. This is when ETH will be above or near $10,000. This will be its first consolidation — a partial reset before being pulled into the final reset (distribution) price zone. In this consolidation, not up to the maximum prices, the progenitor of expensive ether, that is, ETC, as before, will surprise everyone with an aggressive news background. With a high degree of probability, all speculative games, as in the last cycle during pumping, will be “slightly wavy”. Don't forget to sell and don't be greedy... For those who are not traders at all. So which of the hamsters has iron balls, throw in a couple of hundred dollars and forget it, conditional retention without trading for 9, 13 and 19 months. Sold in 3 parts (optional). But, if you don't sell, you will get scared between these market pumping “time zones” and sell everything during the “fear”. If there is profit in advance, then it “warms the soul” and the feeling of lost profits will not play a cruel joke. Money management. Leave a third of the invested money in dollars, for additional purchases, in case there is a spill in the market (only 1 significant, sharp, unexpected). Ignore everything else, there will be enough coins to earn money. If the dollars are not spent and the price flies away, do not buy crypto candy wrappers, but buy a gift for your loved ones. I am sure that many hamsters , when a trend allows absolutely everyone to make money, will imagine that they are real traders and decide to increase the number of coins. I am 99.9% sure that on futures (your psychology is known in advance) if you take inadequate risks, you will lose all coins up to half the maximum price. ⚠️ Adequately evaluate your skills and behavior . Therefore, for some people who are relatively poor but want to become rich, very quickly, it is better not to trade or even be interested in the market until the market is in the distribution cycle, that is, the highs (late 2024 and 2025). Otherwise, each local peak (as always) in a growing trend will be perceived as the end, and when the end comes, on the contrary, as not yet a maximum.
Long
by SpartaBTC
1