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Economic Cycles

This bull run is not necessarily overThe VIX shows clearly defined structures during specific episodes of the market since early 2020. The enormous VIX spike that accompanied the covid crash was followed by a high VIX regime that nevertheless showed a continuous down trend of lower highs. During the 2022/early '23 bear market VIX was perpetually trading above 20 until the structure droppped below that in April with notable peaks in August and October. No certainties but if the current spike ends up being a short term peak as it did in October of last year the low VIX structure is in tact and may well see the market pick up where it left off.
TVC:VIXLong
by MostImportantThing
Bitcoin Cycles and Current Cycle Peak EstimationMy analysis of previous bitcoin cycles and prediction of current cycle peak based on that analysis. The first cycle was shorter than the others, therefore I had to interpolate from the 2nd and 3rd cycles. This analysis gives a rough prediction of 162.000 USD bitcoin price at October 2025. That gives us +100K from where it currently sits at and a possible altcoin season similar to prior cycles. Let's see how it turns out. It is better to zoom into each cycle to see the percentages of peak to bottom, bottom to next peak and peak to next peak.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by reoxyus
"Altseason" tests.I want to make sure to show how right now, the only way to emerge from this market correction unscathed is to not make hasty decisions. The prices of all cryptocurrencies fell on average between -50% and -70% from the highs, following the Iranian attack on Israel, but I think this is just a decoy, given that wars bring more inflation on goods and services and the history of the Fed, which cuts or does not cut, sooner or later will end up influencing the decisions of those who invest. This correction has led the majority of the crypto sector to significant decline percentages, but we always need to remember where we started from. Prices can't always go up, sooner or later you have to sell and take a real profit and no longer a hypothetical one. I write this because I am noticing a climate of uncertainty and unfounded fear, respect for the markets is important, never underestimate situations, but exaggerating in being afraid is harmful, it blocks us and does not allow us to make decisions in a clear manner. This is why today I am writing not to make hasty decisions, if some coins have given the stop loss signal, before activating it entirely, it is necessary to think about which positions to apply it, because this decline is very similar to a panic which in the end there is no need to have.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Melupira89
UNI sent BACK TO PRISON 🦄⚔📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 UNI has dropped hard after a decent increase, taking the price back to accumulation level lows. Losing ALL THREE moving averages in the daily is bearish for the short term : This however presents an excellent opportunity for traders to re-accumulate at low prices before the next bullish impulse wave begins. According to Eliot Wave Theory; as long as wave 2-3 does not retrace beyond wave 0-1 the cycle can still be considered bullish. Meaning, IF we drop any lower than the current point, we'll no longer be able to consider the price as bullish. The WHITE lower trendline may be an indication of a buy zone: I'm labeling this post as "long", not because I am taking a leveraged long but because the price is re-entering the accumulation zone/ buy zone (SPOT). If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck BINANCE:UNIUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
IWM | Incoming Bull Run | LONGiShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of the small-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund generally invests at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index (i.e., depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index) and may invest up to 20% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents.
AMEX:IWMLong
by DivergenceSeeker
3
CAPE Fear: Is the Stock Market Headed for a Cliff Dive? A dark cloud hangs over the seemingly sunny skies of the stock market. The culprit? A valuation metric known as the CAPE ratio, which is currently hovering near its third-highest level in history. This has some investors spooked, whispering fears of a potential market plunge. But is this cause for panic, or simply a cautionary sign? The CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, takes a company's average earnings over the past 10 years into account, rather than just the most recent year. This provides a smoother picture of a company's value and avoids distortions caused by short-term fluctuations. When applied to the entire S&P 500 index, it offers a snapshot of the overall market valuation. Historically, a high CAPE ratio has often preceded significant market downturns. For instance, the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis were both preceded by elevated CAPE ratios. This correlation has led some to believe that the current high CAPE ratio is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. However, the story isn't quite so black and white. Here are some factors to consider: • Earnings Growth: A key caveat is that high CAPE ratios can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth. If companies are consistently generating more profits, a higher valuation might be warranted. While future earnings are never guaranteed, a healthy corporate sector with robust profit margins can support a higher CAPE ratio. • Interest Rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in stock valuations. When interest rates are low, as they have been for the past decade, stocks become more attractive compared to bonds and other fixed-income investments. This can drive up valuations, even if underlying fundamentals haven't necessarily strengthened. • Investor Psychology: Investor sentiment can also influence the market. If investors are feeling optimistic and bullish, they may be willing to pay a premium for stocks, pushing valuations higher. Conversely, fear and uncertainty can lead to a sell-off, causing a rapid decline in the CAPE ratio. So, what does this mean for the future of the stock market? • Caution is warranted: A high CAPE ratio is a signal that the market may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious and avoid blindly chasing momentum stocks. Diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals remain crucial investment strategies. • Not a guaranteed crash: A high CAPE ratio doesn't necessarily predict an imminent market crash. It simply suggests that future returns might be lower than those experienced in recent years. • Focus on quality: Instead of chasing high-flying stocks with inflated valuations, investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, a history of consistent earnings growth, and sustainable business models. The current market situation calls for a balanced approach. While a high CAPE ratio is a reason for caution, it shouldn't trigger panic selling. Investors should be mindful of valuation metrics, but also consider factors like earnings growth, interest rates, and overall economic health. By adopting a prudent investment strategy and focusing on quality companies, investors can navigate this period of uncertainty and potentially weather any potential storms.
SP:SPXShort
by bryandowningqln
Real World Assets (RWA) : The Future of Finance or Hype !?The cryptocurrency market has evolved significantly over the past decade, moving beyond its initial focus on digital currencies to encompass a broader range of assets, including real-world assets (RWAs). RWAs represent tangible assets such as real estate, commodities, and financial instruments that are tokenized and traded on the blockchain. The integration of RWAs into the crypto ecosystem offers a multitude of benefits, including: Enhanced Access to Financial Markets: RWAs democratize access to traditional financial markets, enabling individuals and institutions to participate in asset classes that were previously inaccessible or illiquid. Increased Transparency and Efficiency: Blockchain technology provides a transparent and immutable record of asset ownership and transactions, reducing counterparty risk and improving operational efficiency. Fractional Ownership and Reduced Investment Barriers: Tokenization of RWAs allows for fractional ownership, lowering investment barriers and enabling broader participation in asset classes that were traditionally reserved for high-net-worth individuals. Diversification and Risk Mitigation: RWAs introduce diversification opportunities into crypto portfolios, potentially reducing overall portfolio risk and enhancing risk-adjusted returns. Top 5 RWA Coins with Promising Potential: LINK: Chainlink (LINK) is a decentralized oracle network that connects blockchains to real-world data and services. It plays a crucial role in bridging the gap between the crypto and traditional worlds, enabling the development of RWA-based applications. Technical Analysis: LINK's weekly chart exhibits a massive range consolidation pattern, suggesting a period of accumulation. A recent liquidity sweep below the range followed by a surge in price indicates a potential breakout. The current price action near the $12 support level could trigger another upward move. PENDLE: Pendle (PENDLE) is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that enables users to create customized fixed-rate or yield-bearing tokens for any asset. It facilitates the creation of RWA-based derivatives, expanding the range of investment options available in the crypto space. Technical Analysis: PENDLE's daily chart showcases an ascending channel pattern with a recent breakout and retest of the upper trendline. This bullish pattern, combined with the coin's relatively new status in the market, suggests strong upside potential. A price target of $12 appears achievable. MKR: Maker (MKR) is the governance token of the MakerDAO decentralized stablecoin platform. It plays a central role in maintaining the stability of the DAI stablecoin, which is often used as a collateral for RWA-backed loans. Technical Analysis: MKR's daily chart displays a liquidity sweep below the 1800-1900 support range followed by a surge to $3400. The recent pullback and retest of the 0.5 daily imbalance level at $2500 presents an opportunity for a potential rally to $5000, aiming to fill the imbalance gap. SNX: Synthetix (SNX) is a DeFi protocol that enables the creation of synthetic assets, including those pegged to RWAs. It offers a decentralized alternative to traditional asset trading, expanding access to a wider range of assets. Technical Analysis: SNX's weekly chart exhibits a large triangle pattern, indicating a period of price consolidation and building tension. The recent breakout and retest of the trendline signal a bullish trend. A price target of $7 appears feasible if the trendline support holds. ONDO: Ondo Finance (ONDO) is a DeFi protocol that focuses on structured products and options trading. It utilizes real-world market data to create innovative financial instruments, enabling users to hedge against risks and speculate on market movements. Technical Analysis: ONDO's daily chart displays an ascending trend with consistent retests and positive momentum. The coin's ability to efficiently utilize liquidity is evident in its price action. Continued accumulation of liquidity could propel ONDO to new highs. Conclusion: Real-world assets (RWAs) are poised to revolutionize the cryptocurrency market, introducing new investment opportunities, enhancing financial inclusion, and bridging the gap between traditional and decentralized finance. The top 5 RWA coins discussed in this article – LINK, PENDLE, MKR, SNX, and ONDO – represent promising projects with the potential to shape the future of RWAs in the crypto ecosystem. As the adoption of RWAs continues to grow, these coins are well-positioned to capture significant value in the evolving financial landscape.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
MACRO BTCUSD - The Wonder Years Looking at Timeframes of Prev Market Cycles we seem to following the old adage "Fred Savage" , You may have thought I was going to say something about History Repeating itself based on the almost mirror image of Market Cycles, but When I said "Savage" , I'm starting to hear the screams and see the carnage. I've been trying to figure out why upon that weekly closing bullish candle we are unable to set a higher high, which is still in play, however, I like to really Zoom out and approach the market as a whole. I'm currently scratching my head and starting to wonder if we've already been to the top of the Mountain. Only a thought, an open thought, Without conclusions. Let me know what you think in the comments INDEX:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dasBoot
What Next in $MCX:NATURALGAS1!Dear Traders, As Per Technical Analysis MCX:NATURALGAS1! Will try to take Support Near 143-144 Level if breaks then we can see Further Downmove. but as trader we can use this as a Opportunity buy Naturalgas Near 147-148, with SL of 143, Target 155,159. This message is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It is crucial to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by PrachiMetha
Gold to target previous month lowsJanuary as a month was a bag of choppy price action (maybe long term consolidaton, who knows) as it traded within the range of December high and low. Same being the case with DXY, only difference DXY showcased aggressive behaviour to trade higher, after it found support on 100.6. Beginning Feb, DXY has taken out liquidity from January and December Highs. Factors influencing this move is based on - Fed decision to keep the same rates - It's evident Fed is would like to observe the Q1 data before the rates can be lowered, by April it should be clear when to expect Fed to lower the rates, or still keep it unchanged. - Positive news for DXY late January/Early Feb. Fed's decision to keep the same rates may not have strengthed Dollar, but it did not weaken it as well, and now with new highs forming, the bullishness in DXY might target HH. Suppported by bond yield which are targeting higher yields as well. On the other side, gold is still within the range of December and January, still to break either low or highs. But with DXY's move to trade higher, Gold must feel the pressure to trade lower and target liquidity at monthly lows.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Spyda_Morpheus
Strategic Trading Tips Before the Bitcoin HalvingAs the market faces economic challenges, Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P ) and the S&P 500 ( TVC:SPX ) are showing signs of a potential correction after significant recent gains over the last 12 months. This shift is prompting investors to reassess and strategically reallocate their assets. In this environment, PAX Gold ( BYBIT:PAXGUSDT.P ), a digital asset backed by gold, is emerging as an increasingly attractive investment option due to its stability during uncertain times. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar ( TVC:DXY ) is indicating a shift towards more stable assets, reflecting a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market. Strategic Recommendations for Bybit Traders Add PAXGUSDT to Your Portfolio: Leveraging the stability of gold-backed assets such as PAXG can provide a hedge against the volatility observed in both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. Reduce Altcoin Exposure: Reducing your altcoin holdings can help mitigate risk, especially considering their tendency to experience amplified downward movements during Bitcoin corrections. However, for those comfortable with risk, there may be an opportunity to buy in at lower prices, potentially yielding significant gains if the market rebounds. Buy BTC at Support Levels: Considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which may mitigate some of the potential downtrends by reducing the supply of new coins, buying BTC at current lower levels could be advantageous if the price increases post-halving. Leverage USD Strength: With the US dollar growing stronger, it’s strategic to maintain or increase your cash positions. This could involve making new deposits, taking profits, or utilizing Bybit Earn products to take advantage of market changes. Consider Options: Instead of just holding spot or trading perpetual contracts, also consider trading options to manage risk while benefiting from market exposure. Reassess Risk of Existing Positions: If you're holding underwater leveraged positions, it may be a good time to reassess your overall risk and adjust your position size or margin accordingly to better withstand any potential further downward movements until a reversal occurs. These strategies are designed to balance risk management with the potential for returns, adapting to a market that is increasingly shifting towards more conservative investment approaches. Remember, trading cryptocurrencies, especially with leverage, carries significant risks. Employ solid risk management practices to protect your investments.
by Bybit
1