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Economic Cycles

The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull CycleHow Much Longer Will the Good Times Last? In this chart, I highlighted 3 different cyclic frameworks. The dynamic time cycle which is shown as "grey/blue zigzag" extended into the future. It is a 186 day cycle pattern which was observed at any past parabolic move since 2010 in Bitcoin. It needs 5 repetitions in order to complete a parabolic up move. Count 5 is to be expected to arrive summer next year. I also marked the "static" view for that cycle with blue circle arcs at the bottom. The red is the nominal (average) 200days cycle. I added the seasonality cycles for Bitcoin at the top of the chart, highlighted with colored areas. The simple seasonality is always a bullish yearly start into May/June, follows by a flat June and bearish July-September pattern. Then bullish from October into end of the year. The bitcoin halving cycle impact is also shown with the pinkish vertical lines. The last one happened April 2024. During the first 100days period after the halving, there is no impact to be expected. But analyzing past halving cycles, there has always been a big-up-excess around 400days after the halving. Interestingly, all these 3 cyclic pattern are in alignment for the period October 2024 into May 2025 with a common bullish outlook. So we might get a flat to challenging summer 2024. But afterwards the cycle seem to vote for a continuation of the current bull cycle. At the bottom, I added my preferred cyclic-tuned dynamic cyclic RSI indicator. Which I have made public for everyone. ("cRSI") I presented more details on this analysis in my personal blog.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by StockMarketCycles
3
NOTCOIN: best analyticsThe most complete technical analysis of NatCoin from Ahmadarz group📊 In the weekly time frame, we don't have more than 4 candles for analysis, and the fourth candle closes in another day, so trusting the general trend of the chart is not very reliable. In the first candle, we can see that the historical ceiling of NatCoin has been reached and other candles are closing in the heart of this candle, which shows the trading range of this chart. The most important support in this time frame can be considered the price of $0.0587, which is the price floor of the candle two weeks ago. In the resistance areas, we consider the last two highs, one of which is the historical ceiling of $0.037 and the next ceiling of $0.02940. In order to check the price, we can refer to the powerful candle of the previous week, which was formed after a doji candle, and we can still consider the overall trend to be bullish. In the daily time frame with more candles compared to the weekly time frame, it is possible to analyze better and consider the price nodes from which the price return has occurred as support and resistance areas and draw the important areas. We consider the price ceiling or the main resistance as the resistance of $0.037, the next resistances that form an important area are between the prices of $0.026635 and $0.029400. For two-zone support areas, we have considered four prices, the first area between the prices of $0.012962 and $0.011223, and the second area between $0.005287 and $0.004500 are considered important floors for price support. The four-hour time frame can be considered the best time frame for technical analysis of NatCoin because it has almost formed good areas for technical analysis. The areas of the daily time frame are considered to be among the most important areas in this team frame, and if we take a closer look at the chart, we will notice that a short-term downward trend has formed, and to stabilize this trend, the price floor of $0.01824 must be broken so that it can be done with strength. More after the pullback to the level of $0.01833, the price will decline to the next support, which is $0.013. In the upward direction of the trend, we have a strong resistance of $0.02187, and for the price to rise, a large candle should be struck from this price to reach the daily resistance area at the price of #0.026635. For this celebration and price prediction, we should go to the weekly time frame and consider the last trading range in the daily time frame with the same large bullish candlestick of two weeks ago, and consider a similar movement width in the ceiling from the same candlestick. By identifying the price at the ceiling of the second movement width or the so-called second movement leg, the price of $0.018204 was obtained, which cannot be too much attached to this price because it should increase at least 9 times or 900% from the current price, but if If the price level of $0.037 is broken, this number is not too far from the new historical ceiling. I hope you have made full use of this analysis and always keep in mind that technical analysis is done after checking the detailed fundamental analysis on the token you are going to invest in. This analysis is only the opinion of the analysis team of Ahmadarz Academy and is not considered to be any offer to buy or sell NatCoin, so if you rely on our team's analysis, be sure to apply risk and capital management to your assets, because Ahmadarz Group is responsible for profits and losses. you don't have⚠️
by ahmadarz
2
Bitcoin to $100kIn October 2025, I think Bitcoin will hit $100k before retracing back to around the $60k mark (previous highs become new resistance). Over the last few cycles, we can see a pattern form -- highlighted by the coloring of the squares that make up each period in the cycle. There are three such periods. The purple box is the draw-down from the previous high a.k.a. the fear cycle. The yellow box is mid-cycle, where buying pressure starts building and we have several large shorter-term retracements. The green box is the greed cycle -- when everyone and your grandma wants in. We're still in the yellow, which means there's a strong possibility of returning to the $50k or even $40k levels in the shorter term. I predict the top of this bull run will be somewhere between mid-October to mid-November 2025, which means there is still plenty of time to keep buying. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rogomezpalacio
Gold vs the 10yr yieldThis is a ratio chart. Gold is on top 10 year Yield is on bottom in the middle you can see the ratio between gold prices and the 10yr yield rising and falling. As you can tell, when the ratio reaches a low, gold prices tend to rise and yields tend to fall. Vice/versa when the ratio is at a high, Gold prices tend to fall, and yields tend to rise. Of course the ratio chart is not "CAUSING" the prices to rise or fall. In my humble opinion, we are relatively close to the long term low point on the ratio chart. Meaning that either gold prices should rise and or yields should fall, and or both maybe... Barrons has recently published a piece saying that rising supply of gold could contribute to prices ending the year around 2100. usd This would be a drop in price, and doesn't fit in with my narrative. It might be interesting to see how this ratio plays out, and perhaps it will help you form a bias for your next Gold trade!
AMEX:GLDLong
by Sacyourking
NG1! (Natural Gas) - Price Action in Phase 3 of Prev 18.6 Yr CycNG1! (Natural Gas) - Price Action in Phase 3 of Prev 18.6 Yr Cycle. We're now in Phase 3 of the current 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle. Previous price action does not guarantee future results, and we can already see it's acting differently. So just putting this up for curiosity's sake. Phase 3 in last 18.6 yr cycle saw PEAKS at: - 13 months in (major - ~4.5 Fib) - 33 months in (minor - 0.5 Fib) - 44, 45, 47 (major x2) months in (major - 1.618 or 4 fib depending how you measure) - 78 months in (major - 1.618 Fib) Phase 3 in last 18.6 yr cycle saw BOTTOMS at: - 7 months in (minor - 0.618 fib - front run) - 20 months in (0.81 fib) - 32 months in (0.96 fib) - 36 (0.76 fib), 40 months in (0.81 fib - front run) - (minor) - 56 months in (0.82 fib, HTF bottom to top) - (major) - 67 months in (0.81 fib) - (major)
NYMEX:NG1!
by Savwire1
Sell in May, return another day. The truth.No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase: “Sell in May, return another day.” In Wikipedia it is written: “Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash” If we are to take this at face value then we should be unwinding out long positions until the Autumn. What does the chart say? On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 12. The facts: 1) The following month, June onwards, 10 from 12 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice. 2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend. In summary, 83% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds. Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of May (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities. Will say elsewhere what level this is. Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch boom! Ww
SP:SPX
by without_worries
20
Will Bitcoin bonce off the Power Law trend this time?After each halving event in the past bitcoin price tend to come back to the blue "buy zone". Currently bitcoin price toched the 15 year long Power Law trend (green line). It is the perfect line to bounce off. However, if we analyze the previous 3 halving events we will see that the blue zone was hit each time after halving. In the current cycle this means that the price may come in below 50k zone, but not for very long time. The lower wave band is corrently at about 40k level. Let's see the outcome.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by leoum
3
QQQ Thursday Gap Up ReversalShort-term & small sample, but an interesting pattern nonetheless... If we look back at similar events to Thursday's action, they've all been short-term tops in the market. We're looking at: (1) Gap up open on a Thursday; (2) Bearish reversal closing near the lows of the day; (3) Increased Volume from the prior day(s); (4) Preceded by a good run in the market. I think it's worth noting, although I'm not sure the market dynamic behind it, that these recent short-term tops have all occurred on a Thursday. So seeing similar-type action this past Thursday is sending up a short-term cautionary signal, especially after such a strong runup over the last few weeks. I want to emphasize 'short-term' though, because the long-term trend is still very much in tact. It may also be worth noting the lack of breadth under the hood as an additional short-term cautionary sign, although there are certain areas and groups that have been participating... it's been very much a stock picker's type of environment.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by apaqu
ORDI: effect big candle📊 Token analysis Ordinal done in the style of price cushion, by Ahmadarz analysis team 🚦In the main structure, in the daily time frame, we are in a trading range between the prices of $31 and $95. When I reached this support floor and formed a short-term trading range between the prices of $31.5 and $51, and its failure from the price of $43, a good pump was done. The price went up to $65. In the continuation of the price trend, since we have reached the middle of this trading range, there is a possibility of returning to the breaking point, i.e. the same price of $42, and if the downtrend line drawn upwards is broken with a codenel with a large body, we can see the price ceiling of $90. But now I see the downward trend Upcoming support: 🔺 The most important support is at the price floor of $33 The next support at the break of the last trend is $42 Upcoming resistances: 🔻 The closest resistance: $2.231 as the first target The most important resistance is: $2.40 💲How to get the trade : We can enter in the bearish candle created below the trend line. ⬅️Entry: $62.34 🔴Stop: $68.67 🟢Targets: $43 - $55.15 - $57.25 Capital management should be followed because Ahmadarz analytical team is not responsible for your profit and loss. ⚠️
Short
by ahmadarz
4
NU Breaking ConsolidationAnalysis: NU Holdings Ltd. Has returned 45% YTD and currently maintains an average volume of 22.29M . Price has been stuck in consolidation since early May. Price has had four (4) attempted breaks of structure since. Watch for breaks or advances in "Support Resistance Structures (1) & (2)". Watch for a clear break "Support/Resistance D" before consideration. "Time Axis 2" has been broken - look for higher break in price on "Time Axis 3". Please Leave a Comment ArticaAnalytica
NYSE:NULong
by ArticaAnalytica
A Desperate Long Position My First Idea here, I would like to think of it more like an intuition vs. technical analysis. MNY has made some patterns I noticed especially like around 24th-25th of a month, entering a consolidation area for 2-3 weeks (1.88$-2.00$). waiting for an up trend breakout to exit my position. Facts on MNY: NASDAQ Listed Positive performance & earnings Low daily Trading Volume except in the seasonal pattern Slow mover but volatile if it moves suddenly Boring to wait for if its sleeping on volume 1 analyst is expecting it jump to 7$ by end of year , another expects 4$ somewhere in 2025. A well made Recent Research: (Credit goes to Milo Bussell Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media) www.edisongroup.com Please share your thoughts further, again this is just an idea not a TA. MNY Thanks! (Pun intended)
NASDAQ:MNYLong
by Xx_DarkSoul56_xX
3