Get started

Economic Cycles

Alt Season: The Calm Before the Storm?Hi fellow traders, Crypto21Official here! 🚀 After a strong impulse in the crypto market, we’ve had a teaser of what could be an alt season. The crypto market cap chart (excluding the top 10) showed a beautiful surge to $450 billion, a key level that marked the recent high. Since then, we’ve retraced around 27%, and the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. Right now, we’re dipping into a key buy zone, where I’ve marked a potential double-bottom pattern. If confirmed, this could signal a bullish reversal and set the stage for further growth. On the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, we still see room for dominance to rise slightly before a healthy decline could pave the way for a full-blown alt season. Historically, such patterns have preceded explosive altcoin growth. Why Could January Be a Game-Changer? Tax-Loss Harvesting Rebound: As the year ends, investors often sell assets to optimize for tax benefits. By January, these funds tend to flow back into the market, sparking renewed interest. U.S. Election Cycle Momentum: Political developments surrounding the U.S. election cycle could act as a macro catalyst, influencing risk-on markets like crypto. Historical Patterns: As we’ve seen before: Bitcoin typically leads the market with a strong rally. Altcoins dip or consolidate. Then, altcoins blast off, following Bitcoin’s momentum. 🚀 My Take I remain bullish, expecting January to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin, which could open the floodgates for altcoins to follow. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Let’s see if the market plays along. 🌕 What are your thoughts? Are we on the brink of something big? Let me know below! 👇
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Crypto21Official
Uranium Sector: Bullish OutlookThe uranium mining sector appears to possibly have found its bottom. Since September 2024, many uranium stocks have formed comparable Elliott Wave 1-2 structures. The Wave 2 correction may now be complete, positioning the charts for a potential surge as the anticipated Wave 3 begins. In my eyes, the following companies are the hottest prospects: Energy Fuels Inc. and Uranum Energy Corp. are the first uranium companies in the US, which already are in production. They will money-wise profit immediately from the growing demand for Nuclear Energy in America. Uranium Energy (UEC) has the highest possible and licensed production capacity in the US (12.1 M lbs Uranium per year) and will probably be the biggest US-Player. Here is the UEC-Chart: Denison Mines Corp. and Nexgen Energy Ltd. are uranuim mining companies, which engage in exploration and development. They both have very high grade ressources, but they wont go into production for at least 2-3 years. Either way the market seems not to be bothered by this circumstance. The future success of their projects is getting priced in heavily. Here are the two charts: Uranium Royalty Corp. (URC) is the first and only Royalty-Company in the Uranium sector. They are also holding Physical-Uranium as an investment, anticipating higher uranium prices in the fututre. The companie has connections to Uranium Energy and the whole management is very experienced. I think they as well are in a great position, to profit from a Uranium-Bullrun. Here is the URC-Chart:
AMEX:UUUULong
by PF_Analysis
3
Bitcoin: Entering New Presidential CycleCharts are essential, but it’s equally important to stay aware of major events that can significantly impact markets. Alongside this, I’ll share some theoretical insights. Market During Presidencies: The chart tracks the S&P 500’s growth on a logarithmic scale, highlighting U.S. presidential terms by party since 1933. Blue areas represent Democrat presidencies, and red areas indicate Republican presidencies. It shows that the market has grown steadily over time, despite fluctuations tied to economic cycles, policies, and global events. Key trends include significant growth during Clinton and Obama presidencies (dot-com boom, post-2008 recovery) and slower growth during Nixon and Carter presidencies. The chart also reflects recent market gains under Trump and Biden, despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, it demonstrates consistent long-term market growth under both political parties, driven by a mix of policies and external factors. PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE "Presidential Cycle" in trading refers to a theory that financial markets tend to follow a recurring pattern tied to the four-year term of U.S. presidential administrations. This cycle is based on the idea that government policies and political events during a president’s term can influence economic conditions and market behavior in predictable ways. PHASES: Post-Election Year Stock Market: New or re-elected presidents introduce reforms that may unsettle markets. Slower growth and higher volatility are common as policies stabilize. ₿ Market: Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant growth following U.S. presidential elections. For instance, after the 2016 election, Bitcoin’s price increased by over 2,500% in the subsequent year. Potential Impact: The resolution of electoral uncertainty typically restores market stability. Additionally, newly introduced policies can foster investor confidence, making alternative assets like Bitcoin more appealing. If these policies are crypto-friendly, they could accelerate Bitcoin adoption and drive price appreciation. Midterm Year Stock Market: Midterm elections create political uncertainty, often causing market corrections. The second half of the year typically sees recovery as clarity improves. ₿ Market: Bitcoin may experience corrections or slower growth during midterm years. For example, in 2018, Bitcoin’s price declined significantly, aligning with the midterm election period. Potential Impact: Midterm elections can lead to shifts in political power, creating regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market. This could deter institutional investors or slow Bitcoin’s momentum. However, as the political landscape becomes clearer, the market could stabilize, potentially paving the way for future growth. Pre-Election Year Stock Market: Historically the strongest year, with administrations boosting the economy. Market-friendly policies lead to stronger performance and public support. ₿ Market: Pre-election years have often been bullish for Bitcoin. In 2019, Bitcoin’s price saw substantial gains, rising from around $3,700 in January to over $13,000 by June. Potential Impact: Increased government spending and the anticipation of policy changes often stimulate economic activity, benefiting risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This optimism can lead to higher investor participation and significant price increases as the market factors in favorable policy expectations. Election Year Stock Market: Election uncertainty heightens volatility, but clarity post-election boosts markets. Performance depends on the perceived business-friendliness of leading candidates. ₿ Market: Bitcoin has shown mixed reactions during election years. In 2020, despite initial volatility, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high post-election, suggesting that the resolution of political uncertainty can positively influence its price. Potential Impact: The election outcome often dictates the regulatory direction for cryptocurrencies. A pro-crypto administration could fuel optimism and attract new investors, while stricter regulations could introduce headwinds. Regardless, the post-election clarity often drives market confidence, benefiting Bitcoin’s valuation. Chronological Flow of Events Fueling Bitcoin’s Exponential Growth Shift to CFTC Regulation Trump proposed moving crypto regulation from the SEC to the CFTC, creating a friendlier environment to foster innovation and boost investor confidence. Institutional and Retail Adoption Bitcoin became accessible through retirement accounts and ETFs, driving demand from both institutions and retail investors. Market Sentiment and Musk’s Influence Endorsements from Elon Musk (Trump's circle) sparked optimism, fueling rallies and increasing crypto adoption. Geopolitical Competition The U.S. aimed to lead the crypto space, countering China’s dominance and stabilizing Bitcoin’s market. Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve A proposed U.S. Bitcoin reserve would position it alongside gold, boosting demand and global legitimacy. J.D. Vance’s Proposal to Devalue the U.S. Dollar Vance’s plan to weaken the dollar to boost exports contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21m coins, which makes it an inflation-resistant alternative to fiat currencies. Bitcoin’s finite supply and decentralized nature make it a strong hedge during monetary policy uncertainty, further solidifying its role as a store of value. Vance’s proposal inadvertently highlights the vulnerabilities of fiat currencies, positioning Bitcoin as a compelling alternative in a volatile economic landscape. Holiday Effect Bitcoin’s performance is influenced by alignment of market sentiment, economic factors, and geopolitical events with holiday seasonality known as the “holiday effect” during major holidays like Christmas and New Year. 🏛️ FEDERAL RESERVE The Federal Reserve operates independently of the President and Congress, focusing on economic goals like controlling inflation, maintaining employment, and ensuring stability. While the President appoints members to the Board of Governors, these appointments require Senate confirmation and fixed terms, insulating monetary policy from political influence. This structure safeguards long-term economic stability and credibility. Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance faces significant challenges due to the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and cautious approach to cryptocurrencies. The Fed has historically expressed skepticism about decentralized assets, citing concerns over financial stability, regulatory risks, and potential misuse. Instead, it prioritizes initiatives like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), such as a digital dollar, which could compete with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This divergence underscores a conflict of goals: pro-crypto policies encourage innovation and adoption, while the Fed views decentralized cryptocurrencies as a challenge to its control over monetary policy and the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status. Additionally, the Fed collaborates with other regulatory agencies, like the SEC and Treasury, which have traditionally taken a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies. Ultimately, while Trump’s policies may boost private crypto adoption and innovation, the Federal Reserve’s focus on financial stability and its own priorities, like CBDCs, limits the broader impact of these policies. This highlights the difficulty of aligning political aspirations with the Fed’s institutional priorities.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
14
injusdt buy"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long
by Golden_candle
$COOKIE reminds me $SUSHI... this will be HUGE.Get ready for an explosive move! The recent patterns in $COOKIE are reminiscent of the incredible CRYPTOCAP:SUSHI rally we witnessed last year. With similar market conditions and strong community backing, I predict a potential rise of over 7000% . Don't miss out on this opportunity – it's time to ride the wave and see your investments soar to new heights! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions."
Long
by patriq8
7
Understanding Reverse Repo Agreements: The Q1 Liquidity DanceUnderstanding RRPONTSYD: The Quarterly Liquidity Dance and Its Impact on Markets The term RRPONTSYD, which stands for "Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve," might sound complex, but it's pivotal in understanding financial market behaviors, especially at the end of each quarter. Here’s an exploration of this mechanism, why it spikes, and what it means for liquidity and the stock market. RRPONTSYD is essentially a tool used by the Federal Reserve where it sells securities to banks or financial institutions with the agreement to buy them back the next day. This process acts like a secured overnight loan from the banks to the Fed, designed to manage the money supply in the economy. Its purpose is twofold: to control short-term interest rates by offering a safe place for excess cash and to absorb excess liquidity from the system which could otherwise lead to inflation or push rates below the Fed's target. Every quarter, RRPONTSYD tends to spike due to a combination of tax payments and financial reporting. Large sums are moved to the Treasury General Account for tax obligations, significantly reducing the cash available in banks. Additionally, banks engage in what's known as "window dressing," adjusting their balance sheets to look more robust for quarterly reports by using reverse repos to manage their liquidity or leverage ratios. This spike represents a temporary parking of cash at the Fed, often for earning a small return or to manage financial obligations. The behavior of RRPONTSYD after this spike can have significant implications for markets: If these agreements remain high after a spike, it signals that liquidity is being withheld from circulation. This can lead to higher borrowing costs and less capital available for investment or consumption, potentially resulting in a bearish outlook in the stock market as investors might see this as an indication of a tighter monetary policy or reduced market liquidity. Conversely, a sharp drop in RRPONTSYD after a spike suggests that the cash is re-entering the financial system. This influx of liquidity can lower short-term rates, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. The stock market often reacts positively to this scenario, viewing it as a bullish sign since there's more capital available for stocks, potentially driving up equity prices. Understanding the dynamics of RRPONTSYD offers a window into how monetary policy, liquidity, and market performance are interconnected. Whether these agreements spike and then fall or remain elevated can serve as an indicator for market conditions. However, investors should always interpret these signals within the broader context of economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and global financial trends. To conclude, today represents a significant point as the markets open for Q1 2025 as the vast majority were closed through New Years Day. Bullish investors want to see an IMMEDIATE drop in these rates with the most bullish scenario dropping below the 100 billion dollar mark by early next week. A significant drop is the LIKELY scenario as this scenario playing out indicates a high probability of upside continuation for the markets
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by TrendmasterOfficial
Don't Make My MistakeCRYPTO – Don’t Make My Mistake I first heard about Bitcoin in September 2010, when a business associate asked if I knew anything about it. I didn't, but to spark my interest, he gave me $100 worth of Bitcoin, valued at $0.06 each. The following month, when BTC doubled, he encouraged me to invest, so I bought $900 worth at $0.11 each. This made me the owner of 13,636,363 BTC. At the time, there weren't many places to use BTC, so I happily sold my BTC for $0.54 each. As they say, hindsight is 20/20. If I had held onto my BTC, it would have been worth around $1.44 billion USD when BTC hit $106,000. Will there ever be another BTC story? I believe so. If the US Securities and Exchange Commission stops targeting Ripple, we might see it. But there are other ways to make a good amount of money in crypto. Take AI16ZUS (often referred to as ai16z) for example. With a market cap of $2.5 billion USD, it rose 287.66% in 12 days, 582.81% in one month, and 889.56% in one quarter. These are impressive numbers, and managing this and other DeFi tokens correctly can make you financially comfortable. Worth $1.44 billion USD? Probably not, but who knows—the financial world is changing right before our eyes. I will start sharing thoughts on other tokens that might be interesting to watch or invest in. Like I did, start small—$100 USD—and see where you end up. A $100 investment with a 287.66% gain gives you an account balance of $387.66. Take back your initial $100, and you now have $287.66 risk-free to invest in other fast-moving tokens. Don’t gamble; take your time, do your research, and reap the benefits. Until next time…
CRYPTO:AI16ZUSD
by MissouriTim
PEPE, long term super cycle awaits!This is how PEPE could play out in the long-term assuming that we're putting in wave 1, which looks like a leading diaganol. In the medium term we're likely to see some lows as the minor wave 1 corrects for the clearly visible ABC. But, then hold on to your hats as we put in wave 3 which is always the most violent. If you're not out of your shorts by then, this pattern could ripe your face clean off. In any case, keep an eye and plan for early retirement. Follow for more.
BITFINEX:PEPEUSDLong
by cryptechcapital
1
CELH Buy Setup - 1/27 R:R Opportunity at Strong SupportCelsius Holdings NASDAQ:CELH is presenting an excellent long opportunity. The price is currently at a strong support level, aligning with a bullish trendline that has guided the stock upward in the bigger picture. Recently, a bullish engulfing pattern has formed, signaling a potential reversal, which is occurring in a sweet zone where many traders were shaken out of the market. This has been confirmed by a noticeable increase in volume, further indicating that the buying pressure is returning. The setup offers a fantastic risk-to-reward ratio of 1:27, with the next key level being the all-time high (ATH), which is not far away. This suggests significant upside potential if the support holds.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by PattRec
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Looking for Double CorrectioShort Term Elliott Wave view of Dow Futures (YM) is looking for a larger degree correction against cycle from 3.15.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Rally to 45183 ended cycle from 3.15.2023 low as wave ((3)) per 1 hour chart below. Wave ((4)) pullback is now in progress to correct that cycle. Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave A ended at 43941 and wave B rally ended at 44556. Wave C lower ended at 42496 which completed wave (W) in higher degree. Rally in wave (X) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 43663 and wave B ended at 42928. Wave C higher ended at 43746 which completed wave (X). The Index has turned lower in wave (Y), but it still needs to break below wave (W) at 42496 to validate this view. Near term, as far as pivot at 45183 high stays intact, expect the Index to extend lower. Potential target for wave (Y) lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W). This area comes at 39403 – 41060 area where buyers can appear for more upside or 3 waves rally at least.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BTC 2025 I have plotted the yearly OHL. White line shows year open. If you think BTC is bullish then you buy the year open and hold till EOY or hodl till your heart desires. Alternatively you could gamble and wait for a dip below year open and buy then. Or perhaps you can wait till there's a dip below year open and then wait for a reclaim back on top of the year open level to start bidding. Regardless I see a strong bull trend: 12 years of buy year open and hold till EOY = positive return 3 years of buy on year open and hold till EOY = negative return 2015 is an outlier but despite the heavy drawdown the year end gave a positive return. The probabilities are very skewed and its pretty crazy how complicated we make the LTF analysis and forecasts where the simplest of strategies garners significant gains. The years following a halving year (2013, 2017, 2021) all have a 100% hit rate of buy year open and hold till EOY. Those years offered a very positive return and marked the top of the "cycle" being followed by a down year. My personal opinion is you either buy now or buy higher later. We might look back in a few years and lament on how we had so much time to buy sub 100k. Alts see a similar pattern. The beginning of the year is crucial in determining what lies ahead.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by bhx10
4
EVO Elliot-Wave AnalysisDespite the very strong financials, the EVO chart is stuck in a correction since Apr '21. I think there still is a bit more downside potential. The price should eventually find support in the green box, and ideally start forming a bottom in this area. Potentially the price could drop even lower, but thats not my main scenario. Either way, it will probably take multipe monts, untill the price will start surging again. I see massive value at these prices! I will start buying aggressively, when the price is entering the green box.
OMXSTO:EVOLong
by PF_Analysis
BTC Weekly Signal: A Warning or Just Another Test?Analysis: Bitcoin's current price action presents a critical juncture, marked by the flashing of the PrimeMomentum LongTerm Signal BTC on the weekly chart. Historically, this signal has proven to be 100% accurate, correlating with significant corrections whenever it appears. If the signal persists until the weekly candle closes in 36 hours, we might see Bitcoin entering a deeper corrective phase. Key Observations: The Signal's History: As illustrated on the chart, each red diamond signal in the past has accurately predicted a correction. Corrections following the signal have ranged between 7% to 25%, with the most extreme being a 72% drop during the bear market. Potential Correction Zones: Two imbalance zones have been highlighted as potential targets: $85,000–$81,600: This aligns with the upper imbalance zone. $74,400–$70,600: A deeper support area, matching historical price reactions. These zones are consistent with prior correction depths and market behavior during similar signals. Market Cyclicity: Corrections often precede major market rallies. Historical data shows post-holiday rallies were initiated by small corrections, fitting the current scenario. This aligns with upcoming macro events, including the inauguration of significant political figures, which could fuel renewed bullish sentiment. What to Watch: Weekly Candle Closure: If the signal remains active upon close, the likelihood of a correction increases significantly. Reaction to Imbalance Zones: Monitor price action closely if Bitcoin approaches $92,000 or either imbalance zone. Macro and Whale Activity: Whales may capitalize on this correction to accumulate Bitcoin at lower levels before anticipated bullish catalysts in 2024. Final Thoughts: This setup reflects a dynamic yet critical stage for Bitcoin's market structure. While corrections can appear alarming, they are often healthy retracements that set the stage for stronger bullish moves. Keep an eye on the weekly close and remember that the PrimeMomentum LongTerm Signal BTC has yet to fail in its predictions. Will Bitcoin's trendline hold, or are we due for another major correction? Share your thoughts and let’s discuss! 🚀
Short
by SetKryptoBalans