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Economic Cycles

BTC's Accumulation Phase: Identifying Cycles and Support ZonesH ello, BTC has been in accumulation since spring this year. The white dotted lines show the accumulation curves. There are multiple cycles, each with a pump and a dump arm. The cycles might be different in size, but they share the green bottom support zone where large investors prefer to buy. Bitcoin has a bullish cross signal from the MACD indicator at the bottom. However, the current price is far above EMA 20/50/100/200. Thus, a dip might manifest to correct the price per the EMAs. There's a high probability that players will buy the dip, though and the bull run can continue. I wouldn't buy now because of the potential dip and because the price's at the falling trendline resistance. I aim for long positions, but I'd wait for a correction first and closely monitor how the price reacts around the falling resistance. Regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
What Is Money Flow In & Out of a Stock? And Why Should You Care?Professionals often speak of money flowing in or out of a stock, but how can that be if there is an equal number of buyers and sellers? It is because “Money Flow” comes from the balance of the lot sizes. There are four possible positions in any one stock: Buy Buy to Cover Sell Sell Short Each investor and trader in the stock has their own separate agenda. Each may come from a different Market Participant Group. There are now 9 Stock Market Participant Groups, starting from those who buy first, at the bottom of a new upward cycle: The giant Buy Side Institutions who invest Mutual and Pension Funds and/or create ETFs and other kinds of stock market derivatives. The Sell Side Institutions, aka the big banks and major market makers Wealthy Individual Investors Corporations Institutional/ Pro Traders High Frequency Traders (HFTs) Small Funds Individual Small-Lot Investors, Investment Groups and Individual Retail Traders Odd-Lot Investors Buyers are anticipating that the stock is going to move up. Their stock order types span the spectrum, for example: Market Orders, Limit Orders, Stop Orders. Buy to Cover Orders are placed by traders who sold short and are now taking profits. Those who are selling the stock are anticipating that the stock is going to move down. In an uptrending stock, this is profit-taking near the top of the run. It can also be similar in a downtrending stock because the seller is afraid that the stock is going to move down more, and they have been holding through what they thought was a short retracement. Most of these stock order types will be “Sell at Market” (SAM). Sell Short Traders are anticipating that the stock is going to move down, and they can place a variety of orders just like the buyers. Both Buyers and Sell Shorters are entering the trade, while Buy to Covers and Sellers are exiting the trade. It is the mix of these different types of buying and selling coupled with the kind of investor or trader and the size of their share lots that causes money to flow in or out of a stock. If the buyers are mostly large lots and the sellers are mostly small lots, who is in control? The buyers purchasing large lots . This is because, at some point, there will not be enough small-lot sellers, and those who are Selling Short will turn and start Buying to Cover, creating more of a shortage of sellers. Consequently, this will put more pressure on the buy side. There are always latecomers to a stock run, and they are usually small-lot buyers. As the stock moves up in price, more of the small-lot buyers will step in, pushing the price up even further. Most small-lot buyers typically use a “Buy at Market” Order, which is the worst kind to use to control the entry price. As the stock moves up further in price, the last of the Short Sellers will panic and Buy to Cover, causing the stock to gap up or jump even higher. This then triggers the large-lot buyers to start selling for profit. As profit-taking begins, the stock dips in price. This causes the odd-lot buyer, who is the last in the market participant cycle to buy, to rush into the stock and buy because they have been told to “Buy the Dip.” By now, the news media has been talking about this stock and its great run. Consequently, the odd-lot uninformed investor finds the dip irresistible and buys on pure emotion without any analysis of the stock. This causes the final gap up and exhaustion pattern. Now, while all of those odd-lot latecomers are buying, who is selling to balance the equation? Market Makers are Selling Short and the Smart Money, who were the first to enter, are selling to take profits. Suddenly, the large lots are now shifting to the downside, and what happens? The control switches to the sellers who are moving larger lots. Now, money is flowing out of the stock, yet the price may go up briefly before a downtrend develops. Large lots are usually wiser investors and traders who know more than the other investors and traders. So the giant Buy Side Institutions investing Mutual and Pension Funds, who have access to information often not yet available to Individual Investors and Retail Traders, are called the Smart Money. It can be assumed that the smaller the lot size, the less the investor or trader knows and understands about the market. As smaller lots move in, a shift of power occurs due to the large lots moving to the sell side, and thus money shifts to flowing out of the stock. As the stock collapses and reaches a price or equilibrium near a base or bottom, those smaller lots who held through the collapse reach an emotional point of extreme pain of loss and begin to sell in panic. In response, the Smart Money and Market Makers switch roles again, Buying to Cover their profitable shorts and buying to hold as the stock moves up again. Summary: Every time you take a position in a stock, there are also three other positions in that same stock. You need to be aware of each of these and make sure that you are with the right group. Most of the time, traders who are having problems with their trades are simply trading with the wrong group. It is important, then, to learn about today's stock market structure and what I call the "Cycle of Market Participants." When traders can trade with the flow of the Smart Money, they have a decided advantage.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Incredibly bullish ETHUSD. Upper price target estimate $18400Ethereum is very oversold despite the foundation implementing many positive changes to the transaction system. Layer 2 solutions have made Ethereum very useful and as far as price appreciation, I do believe that the Ethereum Foundation is providing solutions to problems that the community has been discussing and is the best altcoin in the space when it comes to innovation and technological advancements from the start. Please don't take this as an accurate estimate of upper price target, but rather, what I personally believe to become a realistic estimate for how I FEEL and where price could go in the future.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Kornholio
My analysis on us100 (what else right XD)My analysis is based on the consolidation on the higher timeframe. i want price to come lower, maybe take liquidity or go right away from OB and then push to the upside. The fundamental part is really making sense with this scenario. I mean big rate cut just happened and high potential for another cut. The cpi and inflation came back worse, but i think this shouldn't make big impact. Am i alone on this one? Share your thoughts with me, i will really apreciate it.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Filip_Kozak
1
The bull market in Mediterranean rice bowlsWhile many investors spend weeks or even months searching for the next big AI stock, a company from a different sector has quietly taken the spotlight since the start of the year. With Mediterranean rice bowls as their signature offering, CAVA has surged to a market value of $15 billion and has become one of the top-performing stocks of the year up 200% since its IPO and even more than that since the year began. Here are some quick facts about CAVA and the industry: Market Value: CAVA is now worth $15 billion. Stock Performance: CAVA has been one of the top-performing stocks in 2024 despite tech stocks remaining the preferred sector. Fast-Casual Health: The fast-casual healthy dining sector is rapidly expanding, crushing companies like McDonald's as consumer preference changes. CAVA's Niche: Mediterranean cuisine, with its focus on fresh ingredients, has resonated with health-conscious consumers. How much further can this go? Expansion Plans: CAVA is aggressively expanding its footprint, opening new locations across the U.S. So what's the lesson here? Well, I am not buying or selling this. I am late and missed it! The point of this story is that it can pay to look in other markets when everyone is focused on a specific sector. The biggest wins can come from unexpected places—like a Mediterranean rice bowl.
NYSE:CAVA
by scheplick
1
CYBER looks bullishCYBER appears to be in the "accumulation" phase. After the initial pullbacks, spring/hunt seems to be done. A strong move/SOS can be expected from CYBER. It has two targets ahead that we specified on the chart. The green range is our entry range. Closing a 4-hour candle below the invalidation level will violate this analysis For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
2
Cycles and Their Impact on Market TrendsCycles are a powerful tool to integrate into your trading awareness. Plotting from bottom to bottom is the most straightforward way to visualize cycles. The concept of Hurst cycles comes into play here—they highlight the importance of understanding periodicity in market behavior. Hurst cycles focus on the timing of market movements and how price tends to repeat over consistent intervals, giving traders insight into potential future price action. They’re particularly useful for spotting turning points and understanding the rhythm of the market. In this chart, I’ve drawn several green semicircles to illustrate cycles of varying lengths, from larger to smaller. While these cycles don’t always align perfectly, they offer a useful framework. It’s crucial to remember that when multiple cycles end or begin simultaneously, the resulting move (whether up or down) tends to be much stronger than when a single, smaller cycle completes on its own. What goes up must come down, and vice versa, but these fluctuations don’t change the overall degree of trend. By acknowledging these cycles, you gain a better understanding of how market fluctuations occur. You can also backtest historical data and project forward to identify likely peaks and troughs in future trends. However, it’s important not to rely solely on cycle analysis. Combine it with your cocktail of methods—whether that’s Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, or other technical indicators—and look for patterns or signals that align across multiple strategies. The goal is to find where your methods “jive” and provide you with the most confidence in your market outlook.
by cryptechcapital
$VIX I Want to Get HighLast time we posted about the TVC:VIX we Enabled Holy Sh*T Mode. Shortly there after the TVC:VIX broke above 66 in no time. The TVC:VIX is a very easy counter indicator to the market to read. When CCI the CCI breaks out on any time frame from the 2 hour up, there is almost always guaranteed to be a market downturn in the near future. Even though TVC:VIX futures were disconnected from the TVC:VIX a few years ago, the indicator while strange, acts the same. The Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly AMEX:VIS have been flashing major warning signs as the CCI teases a Major Technical breakout above the Zero momentum line. All Three are flashing above this line yet again. The higher the chart CCI breakout on the TVC:VIX , the larger and swifter the pullback becomes. Keep your eyes peeled, or get peeled.
TVC:VIXLong
by Midgar-
as I told You ! Here's a translation and analysis of the technical chart you provided for the ETH/USDT pair (Ethereum to Tether): Translation: The red area at the top represents a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on a daily basis, which is expected to act as a potential resistance zone in the range of $2540 to $2580. The blue area at the bottom is identified as an important support zone (major support), with the current price being close to $2339, indicating contact with this support. The chart shows a potential upward reversal, indicated by a green arrow and an astronaut icon, suggesting a possible ascent from this support zone. Currently, the price is in a downward trend, but entering the support zone could signal the beginning of an upward reaction. If the price fails to maintain the support level, further downward movement is likely; however, if it bounces back from this level, an increase toward the red FVG area can be expected. Analysis: Resistance Zone (FVG): The red area indicates that if Ethereum approaches the $2540 to $2580 range, selling pressure might increase, making it challenging for the price to surpass this level. Support Zone: The blue support level at $2339 is crucial. If the price bounces off this level, it could initiate a rally back toward the resistance zone, validating the bullish sentiment indicated by the green arrow. Market Sentiment: The current downward trend indicates a bearish sentiment; however, the presence of significant support provides an opportunity for buyers to enter the market. Potential Outcomes: If the support holds: A rally toward the resistance zone could occur, making this a potential long opportunity. If the support fails: A breakdown below this level could lead to further losses, possibly targeting lower support levels. Conclusion: The ETH/USDT chart indicates critical levels that traders should monitor closely. If you're considering entering a position, pay attention to how the price reacts around the $2339 support level. A successful bounce could present a buying opportunity, while a failure to hold this level may warrant caution.
Long
by TradeWithMky
down or up?🫡As always, I start with cycles to figure out what position to take We do not have a particular trend in HWC, MWC is decreasing and LWC is also decreasing. So I am looking for a short position We should pay attention to these points that if 0.4014 is HIGH and 0.3327 is LOW, then if the LOW is broken, we can get this HIGHLOW confirmation information based on the DOW. We also have a trend line. If we see weakness in reaction to the trend line, we can take a short position by breaking the trend line🧐 ⚠️Do capital management⚠️
Short
by parsa_xa
A touch of Sweetness...Alohaaaah! to All my beloved Kama'āina out There! This one, was picked Especially for you Very *affordable* to get a "slice" of the Action!! It just Emerged from its trendline/ moving average. Buying interest increasing What does the Trend look like, to you ? Big Picture? May be coming back from the wildfire calamity perhaps. Remember- When life gives you pineapples just add rum. Why did the pineapple go to the doctor? It wasn’t peeling well How does a pineapple answer the phone? “Yellow!” Why did the pineapple join the gym? To work on its core! Let's make some $'s. And, again "Aloha," (Aloha means both hello and goodbye when you're bidding farewell".
NYSE:MLPLong
by sofearnot
1