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Economic Cycles

Quarterly Theory "QT" Introduction to Quarterly Theory (QT) Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. Combining QT (Quarterly Theory) concepts with basic ICT concepts leads to greater accuracy. Understanding QT allows you to be flexible. It adapts to any trading style as it is universal across all time frames. QT eliminates ambiguity by providing specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades . THE CYCLE Annual Cycle - 3 quarters each Monthly Cycle - 1 week each Weekly Cycle - 1 day each* Daily Cycle - 6 hours each Session Cycle - 90 minutes each *Monday to Thursday, Friday has its own specific function . Annual Cycle: Q1 JANUARY - MARCH Q2 APRIL - JUNE Q3 JULY - SEPTEMBER Q4 OCT - DECEMBER Monthly Cycle**: Q1 FIRST WEEK Q2 SECOND WEEK Q3 THIRD WEEK Q4 FOURTH WEEK Weekly Cycle*: Q1 MONDAY Q2 TUESDAY Q3 WEDNESDAY Q4 THURSDAY Daily Cycle: Q1 ASIA Q2 LONDON Q3 NEW YORK Q4 AFTERNOON **Monthly Cycle starts with the first full week of the month. *Friday has its own cycle, which is why it is not listed. Q1 indicates the quarters that follow. If Q1 expands, Q2 is likely to consolidate. If Q1 consolidates, Q2 is likely to expand. TRUE OPENS True price opens are the beginning of Q2 in each cycle. It validates key levels. What are the true opens? Yearly: First Monday of April (Q2) Monthly: Second Monday of the month (Q2) Weekly: Second daily candle of the week Daily: Start of the London session (6 hours after the open of the daily candle) Asia - London - NY - Evening: 90 minutes after the open of the 6-hour candle. DIAGRAM: Q1 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q2 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q3 (D) Distribution (Trade this). Q4 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q1 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q2 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q3 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q4 (D) Distribution (Trade this). ANNUAL CYCLE: MONTHLY CYCLE: WEEKLY CYCLE: DAILY CYCLE:
Education
by Ed_Ale
Bitcoin Full InterconnectednessIn fractal analysis the randomness of price levels can be justified with the chart's historic HL coordinates. We'll use the old structure below as a base for further cycle breakdown. There are another two fib lines derived from angled trends, the fibs of which rhyme with chaos behind price action and cycle formation: Steep fibs determine timing of high volatility change: Note that they rhymed with other fib local wave measurement: 2013 ATH ⇨ Covid19 low related to pre-covid local high determines exact levels of support and resistance during the correction of pandemic fueled bullrun What also deserves attention here is that direction of fibs which acted as support around 2019 and covid19 drop produces curve which mimics the support levels of 2023 growth. So crossing below the support curve would be seen as first sign of bear market. Till that it has a time for growth justified by chart-based parabolic curve. 2 fibs derived from chart shows a decade of price & time interconnectedness which adds validity of the colored base structure. This is important for scaling the fractal and estimating the boundaries of growth distinctive to the historic cycles.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
6
$SOL Dumps 60% - Is it Over !?CRYPTOCAP:SOL DUMPED OVER 60% ‼️ That’s after a 3,500% pump from the bear market low in ’22. Is it over!? TL;DR - NO. This is common after such an insane pump. SOL Dec ’20 - May ’21 5,700% pump 71% correction then another 1,290% pump Let’s look at previous cycles with $ETH. Dec ’16 - June ’17 6,380% pump 67% correction then another 916% pump Dec ’18 (bear market low) - May ’21 4,860% pump 62% correction then another 185% pump So you see my fine feathered friends, there’s nothing new here. Targets still remain $700-850 🤠
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by jonnieking
Don't Panic! Good times around the corner for BitcoinGlobal M2 Money Supply Global M2 has been leading BTC price action very closely by 10 weeks. Roughly 12 days from today for upward price action to strongly resume, if the correlation holds. A wick down to 73-74k is nothing to worry about. In terms of time we are likely very close to the bottom, if it's not already in. You can use the indicator on your chart for free below. Shout out to @Mik3Christ3ns3n for the original indicator.
Long
by CalmMonkey
Elliott Wave View: GBPUSD Extending Higher in Wave 5 ImpulseShort Term Elliott Wave View in GBPUSD suggests cycle from 2.3.2025 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 2.3.2025 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1.2679 s the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave ((ii)) pullback unfolded as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 1.2603 and wave (b) ended at 1.2716. Wave (c) lower ended at 1.2557 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. Up from there, wave (i) ended at 1.2614 and wave (ii) ended at 1.258. Wave (iii ) higher ended at 1.292 and wave (iv) ended at 1.286. Wave (v) ended at 1.294 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 1.2858 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 1.287 and wave (b) ended at 1.294. Wave (c) lower ended at 1.2858 which completed wave ((iv)). Pair has resumed higher in wave ((v)). Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 1.2966. Expect wave (ii) pullback to hold above 1.2858, and more importantly above 1.2557 for further upside. As far as pivot at 1.2557 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
FPI: Irony Behind The DeclineFibonacci interconnection between Higher Low, Higher High and series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The side of breakout from this narrowing formation will determine the direction of trend. The fibonacci lines derived from the structure covers the limits of breakout wave. If the price resumes its downtrend, I can only assume the market is still digesting the impact of deteriorating fundamentals. When I first learned about the situation, I could hardly believe it. Essentially, the anti-immigration and protectionist policies Nebraska’s farm owners voter for, have triggered a labor exodus, as migrant workers in masses preemptively abandoned farms to avoid impending ICE crackdowns. This sudden labor shortage lowered rental income potential and more importantly affected land valuations — both of which are fundamental drivers of financial performance. At the same time, the fact that the farms depend on fertilizers 90% of which come from Canada - adds another layer of uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. This raises the risk of input cost spikes that could further erode profit margins. As operating costs rise and productivity declines, farmland becomes an increasingly unattractive asset class, prompting investors to reassess the value of agricultural holdings. The result is a broad collapse in prices — ironically driven by the very political and economic decisions that were believed to protect these rural businesses. If this isn’t something out of parallel universe, I don’t know what is.
NYSE:FPI
by fract
Sleep Number Company | SNBR | Long at $6.99Sleep Number Company $NASDAQ:SNBR. Closed all existing open price gaps on the daily chart below its current rice. The overall downward trend is starting to flatten. They make all their products in the US and have minimal exposure to international markets (reduced risk around tariffs). Understandably, recession risks are high and such a company would be impacted. Plus, their debt is pretty high. This is a risky investment, but from technical analysis perspective, there could be a future rebound in the near-term. Thus, at $6.99, NASDAQ:SNBR is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $10.00 $12.00
NASDAQ:SNBRLong
by WorthlessViews
1
BTC Upward WedgeWedge patterna usually require 5 touch points to confirm the pattern. Which, officially, Bitcoin has done. This upward wedge means revearsal for a bear market, while a downward wedge means reversal for a bull market. We are still inside this wedge which means even though this pattern is hypothetically confirmed on BTC, we could either see a rally up through the wedge until it finally breaks, or we may even break now into the end of March if BTC continues sideways. This pattern overall suggests that we are likely to see an early top for BTC if the pattern confirms in the next few weeks, otherwise there's still room for a late 2025 top for BTC even with the upward bearish wedge in play.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Lsabbott