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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Testing Key TrendlinesBitcoin’s current price action places it at a decisive technical level, where historical and recent trendlines converge. This area holds significant implications for the future direction of the market. 🔍 Key Observations from the Chart The Two Trendlines in Focus Old Trendline: This line, originating from the previous bull market, acts as a critical long-term support. Its historical significance makes it a widely-watched level for market participants. Young Trendline: This trendline represents the momentum of the latest bullish recovery. A break here could signal a potential shift in sentiment. Liquidity Cluster Around $92,500 A clear liquidity zone lies just below the current price. Such zones often attract price action as market makers seek to clear stop-losses or gather liquidity before determining the next move. Imbalance Zones Below Imbalances between $85,000 and $70,500 are visible on the chart. These areas represent inefficiencies in price action that could serve as potential targets if support levels fail. 🎯 Levels to Monitor Support Levels: Young Trendline (~$93,800): The first line of defense for bulls. Old Trendline (~$93,800): A breach here would signal a deeper retracement. Liquidity and Imbalance Targets: Liquidity Zone: $93,000-$92,000. Imbalance Zone 1: $85,000–$81,600. Imbalance Zone 2: $74,400–$70,600. Resistance Levels: If BTC bounces, watch for reactions near $98,000 and $100,000 as short-term resistance. 🤔 What Could Happen Next? Scenario 1: Support Holds If the trendlines hold, BTC could see a recovery toward $98,000 or higher, maintaining its bullish structure. Scenario 2: Break Below Support A loss of the young and old trendlines may lead to a retest of the liquidity zone at $92,500. If this level fails, the imbalance zones below become the next logical targets. Volatility Ahead With price so close to these key levels, whale activity and stop-hunting wicks are likely. Traders should prepare for possible fakeouts before the true direction becomes clear. ⚡ Key Takeaway Bitcoin’s position near these converging trendlines makes this a crucial moment. Whether the supports hold or price dips to fill lower imbalances, the upcoming moves will provide important clues about market sentiment heading into the new year. Patience and risk management are essential in this environment. Stay neutral, observe the price reaction to these levels, and let the market reveal its hand.
by SetKryptoBalans
DOGE price predictionI've posted a few DOGE coin predictions over the last few weeks, with this one being an adaptation of one that I've previously posted. It looks as though we could be in a handle of a very long term cup and handle, with the handle being wave 4 of 5 of 1. IF it plays out there there's a mid-term decline underway and still coming until the end of the current cycle and then up in typical impulse fashion for 1-5 for the completion of 5. But, if there is a local high, then the cup and handle is invalidated and I'll put in a new prediction. In the immidate term all crypto is likely to go down for at least another week and then up from there. Follow for more.
COINBASE:DOGEUSD
by cryptechcapital
5
MATICUSD versus VARAUSD Correlation - Merry Christmas BullsOn this chart is why I do not use lower time frames to make large trade decisions and why I do not set a stop loss based upon this data... MATIC is the chart on the right, we can see clearly that a bear flag that is circled developed into a very tight squeeze pattern. The result of any squeeze is a breakout, and it is honestly 50 /50 chance of going up or down especially on the lower time frames. Squeezes occur simply out of indecision in the market. Either very large order walls or lack of volume will result in a breakout. Statistically, the longer that this squeeze formation is the more likely that the asset is going to break out to the upside. (If you don't believe me, look at any chart). Something that I have noticed over my many years of trading high risk assets, especially when dealing with coins that are immortal blockchain, DAO, AI, or DEX coins is, when you are shopping for a moonshot, find one that has been in a flat bear flag for a long time... hence why I don't look at these lower time frames. Look at VARA now, its correlated directly to MATIC only because they are basically the flipside of the same idea. One is a little older than the other hence the higher volume. But if we were smart, we would keep a close eye on MATIC when trading VARA since when MATIC moves, VARA follows, wouldn't you agree? So, traders using lower time frames would have seen this bear flag and would have simply taken a short or long position based upon it. I personally would short there simply due to the fact that I do not go long on a bear flag unless it is very long in a time frame to the extent that I can visually see it on the weekly. Now, moving on to the 23 hour chart and why I prefer it to the Daily. The daily is used by everyone and yet the 23 hour chart provides us with a clear view of 24 hour rest periods where assets just sit within a very small candle that results from inactivity. Using the 23 hour and zooming way out so that you can see the weeks before you in total will help pick up on these squeeze trades. It isn't perfect, it is my idea, and I am not a financial advisor.
COINBASE:MATICUSDLong
by fritbjorn
BTC Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisIn our previous update, published on November 30th, we anticipated the completion of wave IV of A of (5) retracement on BTC, which was aligned with a 20-week (20W) cycle trough expected in the third week of December. Now, the wave IV retracement has been completed and the 20-week (20W) cycle trough has been confirmed. As previously mentioned, the next major trough is the 40-week (40W) cycle, projected for May 1st, 2025. In the short term, we expect BTC to push higher to complete wave V, followed by a bearish phase in March and April. A potential target for the peak is 121,500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bamdadsalarieh
ETH/USD Main Trend Pamp/Dump Cycles. Accumulation/distributionThe time frame is 1 month. The graph is logarithmic. The main trend is almost entirely from May 2016 (the network was launched on July 30, 2015). Then the “hacking” story and a fork in ETC (initial) and ETH (more centralized). A week later, ETH will become even more centralized and no longer a cryptocurrency (a true understanding of what a cryptocurrency is). In a year or two, there will be no cryptocurrencies left. No decentralization, complete centralization (substitution of concepts, to achieve the goal). Coin in coinmarketcap: Ethereum (ETH) The graph shows accumulation zones and distribution zones. These are not lows and highs. Notice how the percentage of the average of the smart money set and reset prices differs from the percentage of the maximum lows and highs that the “dumb money” is so chasing. Potential lows and highs may need to be considered, but the basic work should focus on average values of the accumulation and distribution. Here's how this main (long-term trend) looks like on a line chart without “market noise”. 1 cycle of the secondary trend. The accumulation zone after the distribution started at -92.69 Before the exit from the accumulation and the reversal, it reset at -69%. It is up to you to use it or just watch from the side. You should always keep it in mind. Linear chart (trend direction without market “noise”) Note that the super reset of -69% before the trend reversal on the line chart is simply not visible. This is all local fear for capitulation of “weak hands”. So at such times you can use it or watch from the sidelines if you feel you are the “weak link”. Even larger scale between the two cycles. cycle 2 of the secondary trend Now. The cycle is now on a larger scale. Note that the price is now down from the high of -82% Linear graph. Local secondary trend work now ahead of Paris. ETH/USD Secondary Trend (part). Pivot zones. Channel. Paris
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by SpartaBTC
14
Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea: Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around. Historical Context: In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors. Key Observations: 2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market. 2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom. 2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs. 2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption. 2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle. The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases. What About This Year? 📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally. 📈 Factors to Watch: Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength. Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum. Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Case: If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle. 2️⃣ Bearish Case: If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase. Why This Matters: Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference. What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
by SetKryptoBalans
The ₿itcoin Strategic Playbook: Timing Crypto Market CyclesWhy 4 Years Matters: The Confluence of Cycles Markets move in cycles: periods of growth and contraction, driven by psychology, supply/demand, and macroeconomic forces. Two major cycles intersect in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin Halving Cycle: A predictable event every 4 years, reducing Bitcoin's supply. Historically, prices surge in the months following. US Election Cycle: Presidential elections occur every 4 years, influencing fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. The strategy leverages the intersection of these cycles for precision timing. Interplay Between Cycles Historically, Bitcoin halving’s and US elections have occurred in the same year, creating a "perfect storm" for market volatility and opportunity. Example: The 2020 halving coincided with the US election, followed by a historic bull market. This alignment reflects how macroeconomic events can amplify crypto trends, rather than being purely coincidental. Fundamentals Behind the Halving Cycle What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). This built-in scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s supply, historically leading to price increases post-halving. Why It Matters Historical Trends: 2012: Halving triggered a bull run peaking in 2013. 2016: Halving triggered the 2017 bull market. 2020: Halving led to the 2021 price surge. Each halving decreases new Bitcoin supply while demand continues to grow. Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead Bitcoin’s dominance often peaks post-halving as it leads the market rally. During the bull phase, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead, offering higher growth potential. The Role of Elections Macroeconomic Impacts Election years bring uncertainty about future policies, creating market volatility. Policies on inflation, interest rates, and technology affect both traditional and crypto markets. Why It Aligns with the Halving The convergence of halving-induced optimism and election-driven uncertainty amplifies market movements. Example: 2020 saw the halving, COVID-19 stimulus, and election uncertainty, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive growth. How the Strategy Plays Out Start at the Bottom (Accumulation): Look for signs of market capitulation (e.g., extreme fear in sentiment indices, low volume, prolonged price stagnation). Use indicators like RSI divergence to identify oversold conditions. Build positions gradually, focusing on projects with solid fundamentals. Ride the Markup Phase (Bull): Hold positions as prices rise, following the trend. Adjust exposure based on market conditions but avoid selling too early. Exit at the Top (Distribution): Watch for euphoric sentiment (e.g., excessive media coverage, speculative mania). Use tools like Fibonacci extensions, volume analysis, or the Fear & Greed Index to identify when to take profits. Survive the Markdown Phase (Bear): Avoid buying into dips during the crash. Preserve capital for the next accumulation phase. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index: BNC:BLX
BNC:BLX
by azad.motala
Will Ethereum reach $8500 ?Ethereum (ETH) has been a focal point in the cryptocurrency world, drawing both admiration and skepticism. As Q4 unfolds, Ethereum has shown remarkable resilience, staying on its intended path despite market fluctuations. This article explores Ethereum's journey, its current standing, and the potential for it to reach the ambitious target of $8,500. Everyone criticizing Ethereum should take note: ETH is still on track and hasn't deviated from its course. In Q4, Ethereum was never expected to reach new all-time highs (ATH). Despite performing better than anticipated, ETH remains steadfast on its intended path. It exhibited a bearish pattern, forming higher lows and lower highs before stabilizing. It then marked a higher low, established a bear market high, broke through this high, retested it just before Q4, and began its upward trajectory. Here's how the forecasted ETH pattern looks—believe me, we're still on track. 📈 Ethereum's chart demonstrates a clear path forward, with key indicators suggesting sustained growth. The technical analysis points towards Ethereum reaching significant levels, with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level being a crucial milestone. I believe $8,500 is a realistic target for Ethereum, corresponding to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. The Fibonacci extension tool is commonly used in technical analysis to predict future price movements based on past price trends. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension level suggests that the price could potentially double from its previous move. In this case, reaching $8,500 fits within the expected range of this extension level, making it a plausible target. When ETH's price reaches the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, its market cap will be approximately $625 billion, reflecting a 155% increase. If the price continues to rise and reaches the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level, the market cap would soar to around $859 billion, marking a 214% increase. These levels are calculated based on today's price. To all the Ethereum doubters out there: Keep talking while ETH keeps building. 📈 Your doubts fuel our progress. Watch and learn! 💪🔥 Ethereum's journey is far from over, and its resilience in the face of criticism only strengthens its position. As it continues to build and innovate, ETH is poised to reach new heights, potentially hitting the $8,500 mark and beyond. Ethereum's path is filled with potential, and the signs are pointing towards significant growth. With the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level serving as a realistic target, $8,500 is within reach. Whether you're an investor or a skeptic, keeping an eye on Ethereum's progress is essential, as it continues to defy expectations and carve its path in the crypto world.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by Eaglizer
1
BTC and DJI/SPY correlation with markersI am using DJI(Dow Jones Index) as proxy for SPY here to compare it against BTC price movement. The analysis of BTC correlation with indices remain same, if we interchange DJI and SPY. The Day chart displayed here is marked with vertical lines on the matching lows and highs. As you can see, BTC low or high is perfectly matching with the indices lows/high DATE wise. Sometimes, its off by 1 day earlier or later. Sometimes, when DJI is at the peak and moving sideways, it is possible that BTC can make small correction and move back to peak. Here caution must be exercised when entering BTC, as the market is yet to correct. Timing on indices lows and highs, can greatly amplify our returns on BTC price movement. Stay tuned for my next post, where I'll reveal a list of stocks poised to maximize returns when timed with BTC price movements.
Long
by JKReddyLin