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Economic Cycles

Outlook for the next weeks (i love these XD)Right now, i am looking for some kind of pullback before going up. I have marked 3 most important zones and i will look forward to trade from them. But everything can happen so we as a traders need to stay flexible. The Fundamental side still looks great. But the question is whether inflation will rise and unemployment will fall, as this could mean slowing growth and postponing further rate cuts. Wages have also increased, which could mean that there is a greater demand for employees, or there is a great demand on the market for goods and services, which could mean increasing inflation. On the other hand PMI looks great and CPI + PPI is neutral. Tell me whats your analysys, let me know in the comments. I am open to every point of view to the situation and I am happy to learn :)
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Filip_Kozak
Bitcoin crystal ballEvery investor and trader has at sometime wished they had a crystal ball. You can do your own due diligence, taking the time to do technical and fundamental analysis weighing market sentiment and still not be 100% correct every single time. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. So with that said, if you look back at Bitcoin's price discovery history, you can see the general and specific trades you "should" have made. However, how do we extrapolate this data into future trades we "should" make? For me, It's all based on probability and risk management. I look for high probability and low risk trades. Most of the time a trade is not ready for that perfect timing to trade. It takes planning and patience to setup a great entry and exit. The old adage, “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market.” That's why investors simply hold on with a long term bullish trend. But, what if you had a crystal ball? Then obviously you would time selling the major tops and buying major lows. Here's a Bitcoin 1 week chart with Heikin Ashi candlesticks without wicks, to take out the visual noise. In the past 7 years, I have identified only 7 major long trades and 6 major short trades. Why is this important? It means that the last best time to go long was the week of 9/9/24. And it also means the next trade is a short trade. This does not mean the timing is to short Bitcoin today. It just means that if you had a crystal ball you would know when to exit your long position. For now Bitcoin is still a long to hold on to. BTC/USD crystal ball trades: #7 long = $54,566 w/o 9/9/24 short = ? w/o ? profit = ? time = ? #6 long = $24,900 w/o 9/11/23 short = $72,777 w/o 4/8/24 profit = $47,877 = 2.92x time = 7 months #5 long = $16,543 w/o 1/2/23 short = $31,050 w/o 4/10/23 profit = $14,507 = 1.88x time = 3 months #4 long = $29,302 w/o 7/19/21 short = $69,000 w/o 10/8/21 profit = $39,698 = 2.35x time = 3 months #3 long = $5853 w/o 3/30/20 short = $64,899 w/o 4/12/21 profit = $59,046 = 11.09x time = 14 months #2 long = $3341 w/o 2/4/19 short = $12,320 w/o 8/5/19 profit = $8979 = 3.69x time = 7 months #1 long = $1758 w/o 7/10/17 short = $16,275 w/o 1/8/18 profit = $14,517 = 9.26x time = 6 months
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Options360
DogeCoin (DOGE) To Mars - The Elon Ride (Part 2)COINBASE:DOGEUSD has been loyal to me previously. I managed to get some good Buys on #DOGE. I aped continuously on the 7 Cents Levels. Then cashed all my COINBASE:DOGEUSD earnings at the 42 Cents #Resistance. * all well documented in the related idea. What Happened To BINANCE:DOGEUSDT ? It provided to #Correction I was predicting. From a #Fibonacci perspective, it's enough to be considered as an #ElliottWave 2. What's Next For BINANCE:DOGEUSDC ? $DogeCoin follows MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN and the #Altseason. With BITSTAMP:BTCUSD about to burst again, so will #DOGECOIN. It might go #Bull now, or Dip and then... so please DYOR. The #Bullish move would also be provided by CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 & CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS , as a new #ATH is in play. * see related ideas for more details. COINBASE:DOGEUSD #TechnicalAnalysis - #ElliottWave A-B-C Sequence - #Impulse / #MotiveWave in Primary ⓒ (white) - #Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions Confluence My #HODL #Long Levels For BINANCE:DOGEUSDT I will only go #HODL for this #Crypto #Token. Trading #Futures ( BINANCE:DOGEUSDT.P ) is not something I want to pursue with $DOGE. Moderate Entry @ 35 Cents Conservative Entry @ 24 Cents TP @ 68 Cents
BINANCE:DOGEUSDLong
by EW4X
1
Stockholm Syndrome in Crypto Trading: Why We Stay LoyalLet’s be honest: altcoins haven’t been performing as well as many would like. As I’ve started pointing this out through posts and videos, I’ve received a fair share of criticism. Whenever I mention the possibility of a market decline, I’m met with hate, while others who claim the market is heading to the moon are celebrated. What’s baffling is that no one seems to ask, “Hey, you’ve been saying ‘altcoin season’ is coming for a year, yet we’re still stuck around the same prices. What’s going on?” This got me thinking: Could this be a form of Stockholm Syndrome in trading? ________________________________________ What is Stockholm Syndrome in Trading? Stockholm Syndrome is a psychological phenomenon where hostages develop positive feelings towards their captors. In trading, it’s a bit like this: traders grow emotionally attached to a losing market, even when all signs point to the fact that things aren’t going well. Instead of cutting losses and accepting reality, they keep holding on, hoping things will change – just like a hostage hoping for their captor's kindness. In trading, this manifests as traders continuing to support a market (like coins or certain stocks) that isn’t performing, even when the evidence suggests it’s time to move on. They become attached to the idea that a specific asset will turn around and deliver massive profits – even when the price action doesn’t back that up. ________________________________________ The Comfort of Familiarity Many traders are caught in the cycle of constant hope and “what ifs.” It’s much easier to stay attached to the narrative that specific coins will eventually “take off” than to admit that their portfolios might be stuck sideways or even bear market. It's also easy to get drawn into the excitement of “moonshots” and grand promises of big returns. The altcoin season, the bull run, the new innovations – these ideas are comforting, even when the market isn’t cooperating. But here’s the catch: sticking with a market that’s not performing well out of loyalty is dangerous. It stops you from adapting, from making the necessary moves to protect your capital, and from taking advantage of more promising opportunities elsewhere. ________________________________________ The Reality of the Market Altcoins have been on a rollercoaster. The hope for altcoin season has been building up for over a year now, yet many traders are still facing stagnant or even declining prices. When faced with this reality, we often see two types of responses: 1. The Blind Optimist: Some traders will continue to hold and buy into altcoins, even when it’s clear the market isn’t moving in their favor. They believe that the next big move is just around the corner, and they refuse to let go of the dream. 2. The Critic: Others, like me, will point out the slow or negative price action, urging caution and suggesting that a pullback or continued consolidation is more likely. But when we do, we’re met with anger, disbelief, or even accusations of “fear-mongering.” It’s frustrating to see those who remain hopeful get so emotionally attached to a failing asset, while others who try to see things more clearly get met with hostility. ________________________________________ The Dangers of Stockholm Syndrome in Trading When traders fall into this “Stockholm Syndrome,” they stop questioning their strategies and beliefs. They become too emotionally involved with a market that isn’t giving them the results they want. This prevents them from making the tough decisions they need to make to protect their portfolios – whether that’s cutting losses or re-allocating capital to more promising assets. It’s also a trap that keeps you stuck in an echo chamber of hope and denial, rather than facing the market with logic and clear-headed analysis. The longer you stay loyal to an asset that’s underperforming, the more you risk watching your portfolio sink further. ________________________________________ Breaking Free: A Rational Approach to Trading The key to successful trading is learning to let go of emotional attachment. Don’t hold onto an asset simply because you’ve been told it will perform or because you’ve invested a lot of time and money into it. Here are a few ways to break free from the Stockholm Syndrome in trading: 1. Focus on the facts: Look at the actual price action and market conditions, not the narrative you’ve built around it. If the market isn’t moving, don’t force a belief that it will soon. 2. Admit when it’s time to move on: It’s not about being right or wrong – it’s about protecting your capital. If an asset isn’t performing, consider cutting your losses and finding new opportunities that align with your trading strategy. 3. Stay flexible: The market is dynamic, and you need to be able to adjust your strategy based on current conditions. Don’t get stuck in a “one-size-fits-all” approach. 4. Let go of the need to be loyal: Trading isn’t about loyalty; it’s about profits and risk management. Sometimes, moving on is the best decision for your financial health. ________________________________________ Conclusion If you’ve been stuck in the cycle of hoping that altcoins will suddenly surge, or waiting for the long-awaited altcoin season, it might be time to reconsider your approach. It’s important to recognize when you’re emotionally attached to a market that isn’t performing, and break free from that attachment. By focusing on logical analysis, cutting losses when necessary, and staying flexible in your approach, you can avoid the dangers of Stockholm Syndrome in trading and move towards more profitable opportunities. Remember: Trading isn’t about loyalty to a coin or a narrative – it’s about making smart, objective decisions that will help you grow your capital.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
22
XMR: I was there, Gandalf. I was there 3000 years ago...In the crypto space, it's quite difficult to talk about long-term trading because very few coins actually survive for a long time and continue to show cyclical dynamics. But when such coins do appear, their setups can be published in a textbook on technical analysis. On the weekly chart, we see a formed Wyckoff accumulation structure with almost all the features inherent to this structure on the chart. We can see how smart money accumulated their positions from mid-2022, conducted a local rally in early 2023, thus forming a range in which we have been for almost 2 years . This was possible due to the negative sentiment around the coin (tightening regulatory screws, delisting from a number of exchanges, including Binance on February 20, 2024 ) and the lack of speculative hype around XMR. However, the price has now broken out of the range and confidently consolidated above it, and right now there is a good opportunity in terms of Risk/Reward to go long on XMR. It should be noted that the trade will be positional, with a horizon of more than 6+ months. However, the wait may be justified because the volume profile on the chart does not illustrate large "walls," i.e., potential seller pressure across the entire price range up to the ATH . KRAKEN:XMRUSD
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by trolldead
1
Potential trade setup on S&P 500We are looking at a long trade on S&P 500 based on the stretch strategy. There is trend,stretch and direction alignment with this trade on both 1h and Daily TF. Early entry was taken on swing high breakout on 1h for a trend change. There is a high probability for range,previous daily high and range to be formed to the upside. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved. Trader Order Details: S&P 500(Long) E - 6083 SL - 6066 T - 6122 We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by masterthemarkets2010
PYPL , PEPS, COIN | HOT STOCKSThere are a few stocks that could be good buys, and are approaching idea l buy zones. PEPSICO VIE:PEPS Pepsi is showing it's "annual correction" as we're finally getting close tot he apex of the correction, which may be an ideal buy zone. PAYPAL NASDAQ:PYPL Paypal is still on my watchlist, for great growth, further adoption and upside potential after finish of a clear bearish cycle: COINBASE NASDAQ:COIN Fairly recently released, coinbase could be a good buy for a long term hold. Also currently observing a pattern that can either be called an Inverse Head and Shoulders, or Cup and Handle. ________________
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by CryptoCheck-
SHITCOIN - Solana Meme Token - Huge Pump#Shitcoin ( RAYDIUM:SHITCOINSOL_67ZSVE ) is a TRADENATION:SOLANA #Meme #Token. Yeah, I know, the name says it all. However, #Shitcoins have been trending lately, especially the ones deployed on the CRYPTOCAP:SOL #Blockchain. That's why I looked into the mechanics of it... Billions printed, coded, etc. If I was gonna' trade #Memes, might as well go with the one that has the ticker: #Shitcoin. So, by going down the rabbit hole, I became a part-time #Crypto #Degen. #Chads were #Raiding and I watched RAYDIUM:SHITCOINSOL_67ZSVE.USD #Pump to 24 Mil #MarketCap (MC) in 2 days. This literally blew my mind. After all that, it tanked back to 500K MC, but that's quite normal with these #Memes. People cashed in, sold at the tops, reentering at the bottoms again. Friendly Warning on CRYPTOCAP:SOL #Memes DYOR is a must in the CRYPTOCAP:SOL #Meme Ecosystem, so I did my due diligence. Many #Rugs, a lot of uncertainty, scams all over bro... * this idea is not advice, trading #SOL #Memes is dangerous! What ticked my boxes for #Shitcoin ( RAYDIUM:SHITCOINSOL_67ZSVE.USD ) - 10K+ Holders - Active X & TG Community - Token Functionality * Main aspect: Same Developer (DEV) as the infamous MEXC:FARTCOINUSDT , #ATH at 2.6 Billion. #Shitcoin #TechnicalAnalysis - Intermediate Wave (B) (white): Complete - #ElliottWave #Impulse: Wave 1 Complete - #EndingDiagonal: Complete - #Oversold with #BullishDivergence - Fractal Pattern Expectations: Intermediate Impulse Wave (C) (white) to commence. That is because the #Altseaon and #Altcoins are about to start booming. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D shall make the #Correction, while CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 will spike. * more details about this in the related ideas below. My RAYDIUM:SHITCOINSOL_67ZSVE.USD #HODL Levels - Entry @ 600K MC (0.0006 USD) - TP1 @ 10 mil MC (0.01 USD) - TP2 @ 20 mil MC (0.02 USD) - TP3 @ 30 mil MC (0.03 USD) - TP4 @ 40 mil MC (0.04 USD) - TP5 @ 50 mil MC (0.05 USD) Good luck Chad!
RAYDIUM:SHITCOINSOL_67ZSVE.USDLong
by EW4X
5
Solana ($SOL) - ATH Break-Out - A Bull To RememberTRADENATION:SOLANA and I are good friends. I called the ultimate #Support and went #Bullish on $SOL. Went #Long on COINBASE:SOLUSD ever since 10, then 15, then ramping the the #Bull on 145. * see related idea for details. Cashed in at 250, was the #ATH and had doubts, seen the #Correction coming. What's next for BINANCE:SOLUSDT ? A Massive #Pump, that's what! TRADENATION:SOLANA will become Number 3 on #TotalMarketCap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ), mark my words. Why? Why will TRADENATION:SOLANA pump? It's quite simple actually. It's all about the MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN pushing #MarketSentiment up. But even BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will need to provide some #Correction, and that is seen on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart. There will be some wild #Swings on #BTC. I believe that with the #AltSeason and #AltCoins Cycle starting, CRYPTOCAP:SOL will bloom. That's because of TRADENATION:SOLANA connection with the #Solana #Meme Coins Ecosystem. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 & CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 are about to shoot. Billions printed, coded #MemeCoins. COINBASE:SOLUSD - #TechnicalAnalysis - #ElliottWave: Wave 4 Complete - #RunningFlat at #ATH - #Break-Out - Wave 5 Confirmation My CRYPTOCAP:SOL Buy Levels - Entry @ 240 - SL @ 140 - TP @ 500
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by EW4X
3
Ethereum (ETH) - ATH Break-Out - Bullish CycleMARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM gave me a whooping 170% #Profit on the #Bullish Swing. I went #Long on BITSTAMP:ETHUSD from the 1.6K Mark, on the #Break-Out. I cashed it all in on the 3.5-4K Range. * see related idea for details. Unlike MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN , CRYPTOCAP:ETH did not deliver a new #ATH. In fact, it all leads to the fact that it's waiting for something. With the $BitcoinDominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) showing signs of an up-coming #Correction, I believe this will pave the way for #Altcoins to shine, thus the #Altseason to start. Crypto Market Cap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 & CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 ) are about to burst on the #Bullish side. BINANCE:ETHUSDT will play a major role in this. * see related ideas for details. What's the Play for MARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM ? I see a strong #ETH #Bull in Cycle Wave C (turquoise). This can easily reach 5K, but can also tag the 7K Mark. BITSTAMP:ETHUSD #TechnicalAnalysis - #ElliottWave Cycle Wave C (turquoise) - Inverted #HeadandShoulders - #RunningFlat My CRYPTOCAP:ETH #BUY Levels - Entry @ 3.1K - SL @ 2K - TP @ 5K
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by EW4X
9
Stick to shorting goldAs mentioned in my previous analysis, although gold remains in a clear uptrend, the signs of a short squeeze are increasingly evident. Therefore, in short-term trading, we should refrain from chasing long positions at this stage. If gold fails to decisively break through the 2760–2765 resistance zone, a significant corrective move could occur at any time, which is why my current focus remains on shorting gold. From the current price structure, we can observe a pattern where gold rallies by $60–65 following each confirmed bullish signal, only to retrace by $40 thereafter. Since the last confirmed bullish signal, gold has already advanced $62, indicating a high probability of a $40 correction based on this historical pattern. This means gold could retrace to test the 2740–2730 support range or even approach the 2720 level during this phase of consolidation. This is precisely why I prefer shorting gold in the current scenario. As my trading plan, I initiated a short position near the 2760 level and continue to hold it. Let’s aim to capitalize on this opportunity and secure profits from the downside ahead of most market participants. Here's to a promising outcome! Bros, have you followed me to short gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader_Marvin
Fractal Phenomenon Proves Simulation Hypothesis?The humanity is accelerating towards the times when virtual worlds will get so realistic that their inhabitants gain consciousness without realizing they exist in a simulation. The idea that we might be living in a simulation was widely introduced in 2003 by philosopher Nick Bostrom. He argued that if the civilization can create realistic simulations, the probability that we are living in one is extremely high. Modern games only render areas that the player is observing, much like how reality might function in a simulation. Similarly, texture of game environments update as soon as they are viewed, reinforcing the idea that observation determines what is rendered. QUANTUM MECHANICS: The Ultimate Clue Quantum Mechanics challenges our fundamental understanding of reality, revealing a universe that behaves more like a computational process than a physical construct. The wave function (Ψ) describes a probability distribution, defining where a particle might be found. However, upon measurement, the particle’s position collapses into a definite state, raising a paradox: why does the smooth evolution of the wave function lead to discrete outcomes? This behavior mirrors how digital simulations optimize resources by rendering only what is observed, suggesting that reality itself may function as an information-processing system. The Born Rule reinforces this perspective by asserting that the probability of finding a particle at a given location is determined by the square of the wave function’s amplitude (|Ψ|²). This principle introduced probability into the very foundations of physics, replacing classical determinism with a probabilistic framework. Einstein famously resisted this notion, declaring, “God does not play dice,” yet Quantum Mechanics has since revealed that randomness and structure are not opposing forces but intertwined aspects of reality. If probability governs the fabric of our universe, it aligns with how simulations generate dynamic outcomes based on algorithmic rules rather than fixed physical laws. One of the most striking paradoxes supporting the Simulation Hypothesis is Schrödinger’s Cat, which illustrates the conflict between quantum superposition and observation. In a sealed box, a cat is both alive and dead until an observer opens the box, collapsing the wave function into a single state. This suggests that reality does not exist in a definite form until it is observed—just as digital environments in a simulation are rendered only when needed. Similarly, superposition demonstrates that a particle exists in multiple states until measured, while entanglement reveals that two particles can be instantaneously correlated across vast distances, defying classical locality. These phenomena hint at an underlying informational structure, much like a networked computational system where data is processed and linked instantaneously. Hugh Everett’s Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) takes this concept further by suggesting that reality does not collapse into a single outcome but instead branches into parallel universes, where each possible event occurs. Rather than a singular, objective reality, MWI posits that we exist within a constantly expanding system of computational possibilities—much like a simulation running countless parallel computations. Sean Carroll supports this view, arguing that the wave function itself is the fundamental reality, and measurements merely reveal different branches of an underlying universal structure. If our reality behaves like a quantum computational system—where probability governs outcomes, observation dictates existence, and parallel computations generate multiple possibilities—then the Simulation Hypothesis becomes a compelling explanation. The universe’s adherence to mathematical laws, discrete quantum states, and non-local interactions mirrors the behavior of an advanced simulation, where data is processed and rendered in real-time based on observational inputs. In this view, consciousness itself may act as the observer that dictates what is “rendered,” reinforcing the idea that we exist not in an independent, physical universe, but within a sophisticated computational framework indistinguishable from reality. Fractals - Another Blueprint of the MATRIX? Price movements wired by multi-cycles shaping market complexity. Long-term cycles define the broader trend, while short-term fluctuations create oscillations within that structure. Bitcoin’s movement influencing Altcoins exemplifies market entanglement—assets affecting each other, much like quantum particles. A single event in a correlated market can ripple across the entire system like in Butterfly effect. Just as a quantum particle exists in multiple states until observed, price action is a probability field—potential breakouts and breakdowns coexist until liquidity shifts. Before a definite major move, the market, like Schrödinger’s cat, remains both bullish and bearish until revealed by Fractal Hierarchy. (Model using Weierstrass Function ) A full fractal cycle consists of multiple oscillations that repeat in a structured yet complex manner. These cycles reflect the inherent scale-invariance of market movements—where the same structural patterns appear.. By visualizing the full fractal cycle: • We observe the relationship between micro-movements and macro-structures. • We track the transformation of price behavior as the fractal unfolds across time. • We avoid misleading interpretations that come from looking at an incomplete cycle, which may appear random or noisy From Wave of Probability to Reality 1. Fractal Probability Waves – The market does not move in a straight line but rather follows a probabilistic fractal wave, where past structures influence future movements. 2. Emerging Reality – As the price action unfolds, these probability waves materialize, turning potential fractal paths into actual price trends. 3. Scaling Effect – The same cyclical behavior repeats at different scales (6H vs. 1W in this case), reinforcing the concept that price movements are self-similar and probabilistically driven. If psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it strongly supports the Simulation Hypothesis Do you think we live in a simulation? Let’s discuss in comments!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
21