Economic Cycles
AVAX scalp in H1📊 Analysis by AhmadArz:
🔍 Entry: Wait for a bullish confirmation around $26.80.
🛑 Stop Loss: Below $26.45.
🎯 Take Profit:
- TP1: $27.46 (Close 50% position)
- TP2: $28
- TP2: $28.88
- Re-entry: Consider around $25.00 for another position.
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💡 Join us on TradingView and expand your investment knowledge with our five years of experience in financial markets."
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Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy.
So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs?
It turns out, they do.
Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October
Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now.
The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX.
The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
Cyclical Analysis - Heating OilIf you follow my channel, you know that I am long Heating Oil, and am looking for more entries long, based on my COT strategy setup.
Today, we look at Heating Oil through the lens of cycles. Do cycles support the COT Buy Setup?
As you will see, there is some compelling cyclical data that is supportive of the idea for Oil to rise to October 10-20, and then decline before putting in a major cyclical low in December.
BITCOIN BULLMARKET📊 In technical analysis, the most important time frame is always the highest one. For Bitcoin, it’s the yearly time frame.
🔴 Historically, after a red yearly candle, Bitcoin follows with three green ones. Don’t be swayed by macroeconomic fears or geopolitical conflicts.
🚀 The Bitcoin bull market is here, ticking like a time bomb. Any moment, it could explode, and the crypto market will follow.
🎯 Protect your capital, invest with a solid entry/exit plan, and manage risk wisely. Success comes from discipline and executing your plan to the letter.
BTC in trend📊Analysis by AhmadArz:
🔍Entry: 62.200
🛑Stop Loss: 61.658
🎯Take Profit: 62.654 - 63.170 - 63.840
🔗"Uncover new opportunities in the world of cryptocurrencies with AhmadArz.
💡Join us on TradingView and expand your investment knowledge with our five years of experience in financial markets."
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These Market Structures Are Crucial for EveryoneIn this article, we will simplify complex market structures by breaking them down into easy-to-understand patterns. Recognizing market structure can enhance your trading strategy, increase your pattern recognition skills in various market conditions. Let’s dive into some essential chart patterns that every trader should know.
Double Bottom / Double Top
A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs when the price tests a support level twice without breaking lower, indicating strong buying interest. This pattern often suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential uptrend may follow. Conversely, a double top signals a bearish reversal, formed when the price tests a resistance level twice without breaking through. This pattern indicates selling pressure and suggests that the uptrend may be coming to an end.
Bull Flag / Bear Flag
A bull flag is a continuation pattern that appears after a strong upward movement. It typically involves a slight consolidation period before the trend resumes, providing a potential entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bullish momentum. On the other hand, a bear flag forms during a downtrend, signaling a brief consolidation before the price continues its downward movement. Recognizing these flags can help traders identify potential breakout opportunities.
Bull Pennant / Bear Pennant
A bull pennant is a continuation pattern that forms after a sharp price increase, followed by a period of consolidation where the price moves within converging trendlines. This pattern often indicates that the upward trend is likely to continue after the breakout. Conversely, a bear pennant forms after a sharp decline, with the price consolidating within converging lines. This pattern suggests that the downtrend may resume after the breakout.
Ascending Wedge / Descending Wedge
An ascending wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that often forms during a weakening uptrend. It indicates that buying pressure is slowing down, and a reversal may be imminent. Traders should be cautious as this pattern suggests a potential downtrend ahead. In contrast, a descending wedge appears during a downtrend and indicates that selling pressure is weakening. This pattern may signal a bullish reversal, suggesting a possible upward breakout in the near future.
Triple Top / Triple Bottom
A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after the price tests a resistance level three times without breaking through, indicating strong selling pressure. This pattern can help traders anticipate a potential downtrend. Conversely, a triple bottom is a bullish reversal pattern where the price tests support three times before breaking higher. This pattern highlights strong buying interest and can signal a significant upward move.
Cup and Handle / Inverted Cup and Handle
The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern resembling a rounded bottom, followed by a small consolidation phase (the handle) before a breakout. This pattern often indicates strong bullish sentiment and can provide a solid entry point. The inverted cup and handle is the bearish counterpart, signaling potential downward movement after a rounded top formation, suggesting that a reversal may occur.
Head and Shoulders / Inverted Head and Shoulders
The head and shoulders pattern is a classic bearish reversal signal characterized by a peak (head) flanked by two smaller peaks (shoulders). This formation indicates a potential downtrend ahead, helping traders to identify possible selling opportunities. The inverted head and shoulders pattern serves as a bullish reversal indicator, suggesting that an uptrend may follow after the price forms a trough (head) between two smaller troughs (shoulders).
Expanding Wedge
An expanding wedge is formed when price volatility increases, characterized by higher highs and lower lows. This pattern often indicates market uncertainty and can precede a breakout in either direction . Traders should monitor this pattern closely, as it can signal potential trading opportunities once a breakout occurs.
Falling Channel / Rising Channel / Flat Channel
A falling channel is defined by a consistent downtrend, with price movement contained within two parallel lines. This pattern often suggests continued bearish sentiment. Conversely, a rising channel indicates an uptrend, with price moving between two upward-sloping parallel lines, signaling bullish momentum. A flat channel represents sideways movement, indicating consolidation with no clear trend direction, often leading to a breakout once the price escapes the channel.
P.S. It's essential to remember that market makers, whales, smart investors, and Wall Street are well aware of these structures. Sometimes, these patterns may not work as expected because these entities can manipulate the market to pull money from unsuspecting traders. Therefore, always exercise caution, and continuously practice and hone your trading skills.
What are your thoughts on these patterns? Have you encountered any of them in your trading? I’d love to hear your experiences and insights in the comments below!
If you found this breakdown helpful, please give it a like and follow for more technical insights. Stay tuned for more content, and feel free to suggest any specific patterns you’d like me to analyze next!
$AKT Cup & HandleSince September 2021, we’ve been witnessing a massive Cup and Handle pattern taking shape, signaling potential bullish momentum ahead. With the Fed’s recent 50bps cut acting as a catalyst for risk-on assets, now is the time to pay attention!
As BTC dominance (BTC.D) shows signs of topping, select altcoins with genuine adoption and utility are poised for significant rallies, possibly reaching new all-time highs. Keep your eyes peeled on these emerging stars in the crypto space!
Getting Ready for a Strong Bull Market in ETHBTC!🚀 The pair seems to have bottomed out, and the arguments are increasingly favorable for an upward movement: 88.89% Bullish vs. 11.11% Bearish.
Bullish Arguments:
Monthly Bullish FVA
Monthly Discount Array
Weekly swing low being disrespected
Daily swing low being disrespected
Daily Bullish FVG respected
Daily swing high being disrespected
4H swing high being disrespected
4H swing low being disrespected
Bearish Argument:
Monthly PCL being respected so far.
🔍 We are on the verge of a bull market. Remember to manage your risk and be masters of your emotions! Don’t hesitate to take profits and, most importantly, learn from your mistakes and successes.
Let’s go for it! 💪
$BTC Historic ATH's / FibsNew discovered Fibonacci channel: '22 Lowest - current ATH
The visualization of these channels enhances awareness regarding upcoming potential price reactions.
Fibonacci Channels as Roadmaps: Utilizing Fibonacci ratios, steep channels delineate clear zones where Bitcoin has historically found support or encountered resistance. These ratios, fundamental to the Fibonacci sequence, are critical in estimating areas where price movements are likely to stall or reverse.
Fib ratios splits the cycle into its phases:
Bitcoin 1H UpdateMEXC:BTCUSDT
Apparently a correction has been started.
The high of the structure confirmed by touching the IDM.i.
If the 1H candle closed lower than IDM.i,
we may expect price to drop further to the DP.i / ENG.i / EX.i
otherwise the IDM.i grabbed and make a SCOB for us to enter another Buy Position and the target one is the high of structure (63850) and the second target is the MPL zone (64460).
P.S: In the DPs & ENGs zones and grabbed IDMs we MUST get a confirmation signal to enter position which is SCOB or lower time frame (LTF) ChoCh. (EXs are confirmation-free entries)
I will update Bitcoin regularly..
Take Care
Aurio
Bitcoin / #Russell2000 📝The index of small companies is known for being highly dependent on bank financing. Therefore, of course, he is the main beneficiary of cheaper money after the rate cut.
👀What we see about correlations, CRYPTOCAP:BTC bull markets, coincide with the movement of this index as you can see, in the green zone on the Spearman indicator,
💡We can also see that Russell 2000 is far from its ATH, which is also a bullish sign, because small companies in the stock market grow quite predictably with GDP growth and increased liquidity, and in the current state is far from overheated.
DOGECOIN 2024 — A Massive Breakout Coming?Hello, fellow traders! I'm excited to share an intriguing analysis with you today. Let's explore how Dogecoin DOGEUSD might be following in the footsteps of Stellar's XLMBTC remarkable 2017 bear market and 2018 bull run.
By comparing historical charts of Stellar with the current movements of Dogecoin, we could uncover patterns suggesting a significant breakout for DOGE this year and into the next. This insight might help you spot potential trading opportunities in the market.
Stellar's 2017 Journey
On the top chart, we have Stellar XLMBTC chart from 2017 and 2018:
All-Time High (ATH) of 2017: Stellar reached its ATH, followed by a period of declining lower highs during the summer months.
Accumulation Phase: Mid-autumn brought an accumulation zone, indicating consolidation before the next big move.
Wedge Pattern Formation: A wedge pattern emerged, leading to increased bullish momentum.
Breakout to New Highs: Post-wedge, Stellar entered a phase of higher highs, establishing a new ATH at the beginning of 2018.
Dogecoin's Current Path
Now, let's examine Dogecoin DOGEUSDT on the 3-day timeframe:
ATH in May 2021: DOGE hit its ATH and then began a decline into a lower highs zone.
Accumulation Zone Since Mid-2023: Like Stellar, DOGE was in an accumulation phase that lasted until 2024.
Wedge Pattern Development: In 2024, DOGE formed a wedge pattern, with the price currently residing within this formation.
Moving Averages Alignment: Interestingly, the moving averages on both charts behave almost identically, reinforcing the pattern similarity.
What This Could Mean
The parallels between DOGE and XLM suggest that Dogecoin might be bottoming out and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. While history doesn't always repeat itself, these patterns are worth paying attention to.
What are your thoughts on this comparison? Do you think Dogecoin is set to follow Stellar's past performance? Share your insights or any questions you have in the comments below — I’d love to hear your perspective!
Remember, the crypto market can be unpredictable. It's essential to protect your capital and manage risks appropriately. A fundamental risk management strategy is to use no more than 1% of your capital per trade.
If you found this analysis helpful, please like this post and follow me for more cryptocurrency insights. Stay tuned for more updates!
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks)
Target #1 = $24.85
Target #2 = $26.00
Target #3 = $28.00+
A stop exists below $20.00.
Return of Volatility IndexesIt's September 18 2024 10:51pm EST, just another Wednesday. Elections are creeping up and Chinese (HSI) markets are sparking uptrend. Somehow, American volatility indexes are evidently setting up for what appears to be a big return to the upside. Perhaps only a rare few have captured it? Who knows, but the cycles don't lie and neither do the high timeframe supercycles, which imply a reversal is overdue for the volatility indexes, including UVXY (ETF), VXX(ETN), and VIX and their corresponding denominations, just to name a few. In any event, it would be fair to say that after today's close and going forward, these volatility indexes are ready for takeoff. The catalysts are not exactly clear, though. Election alone can't spark them, and if Covid triggered the last significant run, what's next? This, only time will tell, but the 'vola' indexes are nonetheless ready for takeoff.
BTC (SMA50 and FED rate)#Bitcoin distance from 50SMA 👀
This SMA has often acted as support during a bull market.
📝The rate was also lowered today by 50 basis points, more than planned, a sign that the FED sees that the economy needs more help from the regulator.
💡Such a radical step is an indicator that very soon additional liquidity will appear on the market and, as we know from previous posts, it will, of course, settle in CRYPTOCAP:BTC and gold.