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Economic Cycles

What do DJI, SPX and NDX have in common?Well the obvious answer is that they are Major USA indices and they also share some of the big players as stocks which make up their composite Indices. My answer the Question... The beauty of Trading View is the ability to combine all sorts of aspects of trading information together,  whether it be writing new scripts, combining indicators or in my case combing major indices together in Logarithmic view to get a new way of future price discovery (for SPX & NDX) by looking backwards or left at price structure on the next highest valued Indice. As we know A.T.M all 3 Indices are at A.T.H's so at some point in the near future there will be a move higher into new price territory. The question then is where is the price target? Where is the next resistance level when there is no price structure to the left on that Indice? What I noticed historically about these Indices is that past price structure (major highs and lows) from the higher valued Indice (Mostly DJI) is horizontally plotted forward into the future onto the lesser valued Indice. Like looking left historically at an instrument with a lot of data for support and resistance levels. Obviously with DJI being the highest dollar value Indice and it also moving higher past its all time high at some point into unknown price territory, we will have to rely on its own price structure for support levels or Fibonacci levels for clues about were price will find resistance levels in the future. On SPX and NDX though we have a different story. As these 2 Indices move higher into unknown price territory with no price structure of their own to the left looking back, we can use the past price structure of the higher dollar valued Indice (DJI) market highs and lows to assess future levels of resistance or to find future price targets. With SPX we will be able to use NDX and also DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance. With NDX we will be able to use DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance. Some examples, If you pull up these 3 indices on a line chart yourself you will find that with NDX and SPX the support levels for the Dotcom and GFC crash's were DJI's historical price structure levels from 1961-1981. $731-$965. If you look at SPX the present high and previous equal high on 01/2022 you will find it is mirrored in price structure on NDX 2015-2016 period and that the 2000 Dotcom peak is acting as a support level $4380 for present SPX price structure. NDX 01/2022 If you go way back in time to the 1930's Great depression market crash you will find the Aug 1929 SPX high $32.50 was in fact a resistance level which became support level for DJI back in 1898 and 1903 respectively. The major past Cycle Highs on the higher valued Indice prior to recession tend to be the resistance levels for for future highs on the lower valued Indices. Or resistance levels that were broken and became support on DJI became resistance dollar value levels for SPX and NDX. It is obvious that vertically this 3 indices would show similar reactions to market shocks but I'm not quite sure why horizontally there are so many matching price support and resistance levels. This is a Monthly Chart over a 130 year period so the levels are harder to see and not precisely dollar accurate but if you use a weekly or daily chart you will see the levels line up very well. So, obviously in my head I'm wondering what the heck is happening here exactly? Some of these older levels have played out over 50-60 years into the future on DJI to the SPX and NDX, more recently the time frame is reducing to around 10-20 years. Fibonacci levels also work on this chart going from lowest value Indice at a recession low to next business cycle high on highest value Indice. Maybe W.D Gann could explain this accurately for me....Like is there some sort of Fractal playing out here or do the Wall street crew already use this method or is it the madness of the crowd echoing forward through time unwittingly expressing human emotion into charts of financial greed and fear? Who knows? I'd like to hear Traders ideas about this phenomena.
TVC:DJI
by Neilsh
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & Overlay - DETAILEDThis post is intended to be used with an earlier interactive companion post, crated to observe BTC's interactions in prior cycles so we can take learnings into cycle 4 with respect to BTC's under and over extensions of the calculated Realised Price. A quick refresher - What is Realized Price? Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com "Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price." The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies. Historic Observations As per the above prior post, we see BTC enters a cycle topping and bottom phase when BTC's 'Realised Price' enters the top red and bottom green over extended regions of the normalised Oscillator and the Red and Blue Extension lines of the Overlay indicators. We see historically the Oscillator shows the region where price moves with high volatility and other indicators that rely on divergence can extended much further than in other periods in the cycle before a true change in trend is achieved. In 2021 Overlay indicator (RED Line) was breached many times before we put in a significant trend change and the ultimate cycle top was realised at the second peak interestingly at the lower 'Purple' extension line November of that year. CYCLE 4 Update Where are we now according to the Realised Price Overlay and Oscillator indicators... Based on historic review of BTC relationship suggests we are about to enter the parabolic region of this cycles (Oscillator is about to enter into the 'RED' zone and Overlay indicator has breached the Purple line and is between the Red and Purple line). Interestingly this relationship aligns with our cycle mapping posts, looking at BTC historic behavior since cycle bottoms and tops and BTC price targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & OverlayThis post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis. I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values. What is Realized Price? Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com "Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price." The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies. I will follow this post with a zoomed version for detailed discussion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Identifying cyclical opportunities in $HOOD for optionsNASDAQ:HOOD has been in a bull trend since June of 2022, and its price action has also been decently straight forward. Notes about NASDAQ:HOOD 's price action - 1. Hood's cycle lengths from low to low, in this daily chart are not uniform. 2. However the trends in between the swing lows and highs are secular. 3. Hood has been forming base lows instead of V pattern lows. How I'm trading $HOOD. - Since the trend is bullish it is best to stick with call options looking for confirmation of a cycle low to get long. - When NASDAQ:HOOD starts to form a base after a cyclical downtrend look for momentum to enter - Once identifying a swing high, exit calls and allow the next secular downtrend to play out - Each cycle consider if the macro tend for NASDAQ:HOOD is still bullish - Own NASDAQ:HOOD shares ** The timing band on this chart is a general area based off of previous cycles I'm expecting a base low and will be looking to get long.
NASDAQ:HOOD
by limit_buy_69
8
Shiver in Ecstasy at the beauty of FibonacciIt speaks for itself, really. Halvings, tops, bottoms, etc. can all roughly be located here, within reasonably accurate levels for price & time. Forecasting: >> 5.618 (time) - 4/20/2025 also shows next potential bottom fib-levels based on historic durations of bear markets... Price level I have less certainty for.... >>>4.236 (price) - $245k this level also coincides with breakout targets for the inverse H&S pattern formed during the 2022/2023 bear market.
BNC:BLXLong
by w.savage11
1
Trade Recap: AUDUSD - LONG, 20/11/2024AU Bias Analysis: With a clear bearish leg on the 1D as a result of a bullish dollar, Price has now established a Counter Trend towards 1D EPD. The long entry is in line with the current bullish 1H range and price retraced to the 50% fib retracement level on the initial entry and the 79% fib retracement level on the second entry which is floating at BE. Grade: High Risk What I did well or could've done better: - I was not confident in he initial entry due to multiple factors indicating that price would retrace deeper into 1H discount but I followed the plan and executed regardless of what I thought would happen.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
BTC/USD is approaching FIB-EXT highest level 1.618 (95,603)As per the price action the whole crypto market is bullish on bigger time frame 1st probablity Currently I am expecting BITCOIN will reach its all time High $95,603 on the basis of Fibonacci extension 1.618 tracing from previous impulsive movement in Feb to march Bullish cycle,on the weekly time frame chart bitcoin can take a small retracement towards Imbalance in premium zone ($74,000 to 80,000) If the bulls whales dominate the market, then we can another impulsive bullish cycle toward $120,000 2nd Probability Price reject from the 1.618 ($95,603) region and took the liquidity of the FVG and Value area high and tap in to the OB in Discount region this will be high gain and long cycle towards $150,000 because retailers and big whales will take a part .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ak7119660
1
FWOG Buying Zone! Major Listings Coming Soon!but its just a fwog Im giving you a new range of entry. Currently: Price: $0.52 MarketCap: 519.0 Million Holders: 44.7K 1. I had previously drawn my analysis of fwog with Green rectangle areas are movements of expansion with the RSI peaking above the 70 level as price goes up and brings in more demand. As buy orders gets exhausted the RSI goes down following the Yellow Arrow. 2. Point of this post is analyzing a entry zone! Look at the Orange section that is the Demand zone. This is the first full range for FWOG this is the best entry you have in the last few months. Buy in now before it really takes off, major listings coming, community is growing, normies coming in. Check the Fib levels: Anything under the 0.5 level is a great buy position. Buy as close to this section as possible. Best Entry is Orange Zone: under $0.50 Entry: $0.45 - $0.56 Target: $0.90 -$1.20 Expected Target, this is a High Conviction Meme Coin. First range, prior to that it was doing higher highs and higher lows. So lets see how high we can go! FWOG has a tendency to have a short range before it takes off again. Days where Solana was red FWOG was up. So if you are expecting a SOL correlation to this coin I would just go ahead and buy. I have been DCAing in this Zone. I've been in since $0.15 - $0.22 zone. Follow the X account. Art work is insane. check holder scan we currently at 44K holders. We can easily get to 60K in a week or two.
MEXC:FWOGUSDTLong
by Alt-Frodo
BTC Top for this cycleI recognized a sort of "pattern" for the ROI of BTC, taking the Halving as a starting point and the cycle top as the end. The ROI seems to be reduced by a factor of 0.22-0.27. For this reason I took the ROI of last cycle, starting from the Halving, and reduced it down to 25%. When I apply it to this cycle, it comes out that the top should be at around 169k. To be honest, I will sell earlier than that just to reinvest the earnings into something else (Alts if it is Alt Season). Nonetheless, I believe the top is realistic given the circumstances with new institutions coming in and the adoption of BTC and other Cryptocurrencies for institutional portfolios.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Camilo0524
$COOKIE reminds me $SUSHI... this will be HUGE.Get ready for an explosive move! The recent patterns in $COOKIE are reminiscent of the incredible CRYPTOCAP:SUSHI rally we witnessed last year. With similar market conditions and strong community backing, I predict a potential rise of over 7000% . Don't miss out on this opportunity – it's time to ride the wave and see your investments soar to new heights! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions."
Long
by patriq8
3
$TIA: Ready to Breakout After 5 Months of Consolidation? I think LSE:TIA is finally primed for a breakout after spending the last five months consolidating in the tight $4–$6 range. The lows have been respected multiple times, and we're now seeing the buildup of potential for a significant move. I’m eyeing an entry at $4.85, which would be a perfect spot to load up if we get a retrace into that zone. If it does dip back there, it's a max bid scenario for me. However, I'm also prepared to jump in a bit higher if needed, especially if I get left behind as the breakout gains momentum. It's a balancing act between waiting for the perfect entry and not missing out on the move entirely. Let’s see how it plays out—I'm keeping a close watch!
Long
by ZelfTrade