The Day AheadWednesday, April 2
Data Releases: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance.
Central Banks: Speeches from Fed’s Kugler, ECB's Schnabel, and Escriva.
Trump Tariff Announcement: Trump’s team is finalizing options for a 4 p.m. announcement, considering a tiered system with flat rates or a customized approach.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Economicdata
The Day Ahead Economic Data Releases (Market Impact)
US:
March ISM Services PMI – Key gauge of economic activity in the services sector. A higher-than-expected number could fuel rate hike concerns.
February Trade Balance – Trade deficit/surplus could influence USD sentiment.
Initial Jobless Claims – A lower figure may strengthen USD as it signals a strong labor market.
UK:
March Official Reserves Changes – Could impact GBP if there are significant shifts.
China:
March Caixin Services PMI – A strong reading could boost market sentiment, supporting risk assets.
Italy & Eurozone:
March Services PMI (Italy) & February PPI (Eurozone) – Weak data could reinforce ECB rate cut expectations, affecting EUR.
Canada:
February International Merchandise Trade – Affects CAD; trade surplus could strengthen the currency.
Switzerland:
March CPI – Inflation trends impact SNB policy expectations and CHF.
Central Bank Events (Market Moving)
US Fed Speakers (Jefferson, Cook) – Any hints on future rate hikes/cuts will drive USD and bond markets.
ECB March Meeting Account – Insight into ECB’s rate path; dovish tone may weaken EUR.
BoE March DMP Survey – Expectations on inflation and growth, potentially influencing GBP.
Geopolitical Event
NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting (April 3-4) – Any geopolitical developments could impact risk sentiment, affecting oil prices, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets.
Trading Relevance
USD: High impact from ISM Services PMI, jobless claims, and Fed speeches.
EUR: ECB minutes and Eurozone PPI could drive movement.
GBP: BoE survey and UK reserves data in focus.
CAD: Trade balance key for CAD direction.
CHF: Inflation print may influence SNB rate expectations.
Risk Sentiment: Watch China PMI and NATO meeting for broader market impact.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Key Events for Tuesday, April 1, 2025
Economic Data Releases:
US: ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, JOLTS Job Openings, Vehicle Sales
China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Japan: Tankan Survey, Jobless Rate, Job-to-Applicant Ratio
Italy: Manufacturing PMI, Car Sales, Unemployment Rate, Budget Balance
Eurozone: CPI (Inflation), Unemployment Rate
Canada: Manufacturing PMI
Central Banks:
Fed: Barkin speaks
ECB: Lagarde & Lane speak
BoE: Greene speaks
RBA: Holds rates at 4.1%
Other:
US House Special Elections in Florida (Could impact markets)
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data & Events – March 31
US: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index
China: Official PMIs (Manufacturing & Services)
UK: Lloyds Business Barometer, Consumer Credit, M4 (Money Supply)
Japan: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts
Germany: CPI, Retail Sales, Import Prices
Italy: CPI
Central Banks: ECB’s Panetta & Villeroy speak
Relevance to Trading:
US, China, and Germany data impact equities, bonds, and FX (USD, CNY, EUR).
Inflation data (CPI) from Germany & Italy could influence ECB policy expectations.
PMI & industrial production data provide insights into global economic health.
ECB speakers may signal policy direction, affecting EUR volatility.
The Day Ahead: Market Focus & Key EventsKey Market Events – Friday, March 28
U.S. Data:
February PCE (Core & Headline): Key Fed inflation gauge—high impact on rate expectations.
Personal Income & Spending: Consumer strength insights.
March Kansas City Fed Services Activity: Regional business sentiment.
Europe:
UK February Retail Sales: Consumer demand check.
Germany March Unemployment, April GfK Consumer Confidence: Labor market & sentiment indicators.
France March CPI, PPI: Inflation signals.
Italy March Consumer, Manufacturing, & Economic Sentiment + Industrial Sales & PPI: Growth outlook.
Eurozone March Economic Confidence: Broad sentiment gauge.
Canada:
January GDP: Growth momentum ahead of BoC policy decisions.
Central Banks:
Fed’s Barr & Bostic Speeches: Potential rate clues.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: Inflation & policy sentiment.
Trading Focus:
PCE data → USD, Treasuries, equities move on inflation implications.
Retail sales, GDP → FX volatility (GBP, CAD).
Confidence & inflation prints → EUR crosses & bond yields.
Fed/ECB speakers → Interest rate expectations shift.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead: Market Focus & Key Events Macro Data Releases:
US: February pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims
China: February industrial profits
Japan: March Tokyo CPI
Eurozone: February M3 money supply
Central Bank Speakers & Policy Updates:
Fed: Barkin speaks
BoJ: March meeting summary of opinions
ECB: Guindos, Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva, Schnabel speak
BoE: Dhingra speaks
Norges Bank: Rate decision
Earnings Watch:
H&M, Lululemon
Fixed Income Auctions:
US Treasury: 7-year Notes
Other Notable Reports:
US CBO releases The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Market Impact Considerations:
FX: Fed and BoE commentary could drive volatility in GBP/USD, while Norges Bank’s decision may influence EUR/NOK.
Equities: H&M and Lululemon earnings could impact retail sentiment.
Bonds: The 7-year Treasury auction and US macro data may guide Treasury yields.
Commodities: China’s industrial profits and Japan’s CPI could influence risk sentiment and commodity demand.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day AheadWednesday March 26
Data: US February durable goods orders, UK February CPI, RPI, January house price index, France March consumer confidence, Australia February CPI
Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Kashkari speak, ECB's Villeroy and Cipollone speak, BoC summary of deliberations from the March meeting
Earnings: Dollar Tree, RENK
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN, US 5-yr Notes
Other: US CBO Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit report, UK spring statement
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Tuesday March 25
Data: US March Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, January FHFA house price index, February new home sales, China 1-yr MLF rate, Japan February PPI services, Germany March Ifo survey, EU27 February new car registrations
Central banks: Fed’s Williams and Kugler speak, ECB's Kazimir, Nagel, Holzmann and Vujcic speak
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Tuesday March 18
Data: US February industrial production, capacity utilisation, building permits, housing starts, import and export price index, March New York Fed services business activity, Japan January core machine orders, Tertiary industry index, February trade balance, Germany March Zew survey, Italy January trade balance, Eurozone March Zew survey, January trade balance, Canada February CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Rehn and Escriva speak
Earnings: Xiaomi, XPeng
Auctions: US 20-yr Bond
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Economic Data due this week:
Monday: US retail sales (February), China industrial production and retail sales (January to February).
Tuesday: Germany economic sentiment (March). Earnings: XPeng.
Wednesday: US interest rate decision, Japan interest rate decision.
Thursday: UK unemployment rate (January), UK interest rate decision.
Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Lululemon, Micron, Accenture.
Friday: Japan inflation (February), Earnings: NIO.
The Day Ahead Friday March 14
Data: US March University of Michigan survey, UK January monthly GDP, Germany January current account balance, Italy January industrial production, general government debt, Canada January manufacturing sales
Central banks: ECB's Cipollone speaks
Earnings: BMW, Daimler Truck Holding
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead - ECB Speak & US Jobless ClaimsThursday March 13
Data: US February PPI, initial jobless claims, Q4 household change in net worth, UK February RICS house price balance, Italy Q4 unemployment rate, Canada January building permits
Central banks: ECB's Guindos, Holzmann, Villeroy and Nagel speak
Earnings: Enel, Generali, Dollar General
Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead - US Inflation Wednesday March 12
Data: US February CPI, federal budget balance
Central banks: BoC decision, ECB's Lagarde, Villeroy, Escriva, Nagel and Lane speak
Earnings: Adobe, Rheinmetall, Porsche, Inditex, Puma
Auctions: US 10-yr Note
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day AheadTuesday March 11
Data: US February NFIB small business optimism, January JOLTS report, Japan February machine tool orders, PPI
Central banks: ECB’s Rehn speaks
Earnings: Volkswagen, Partners Group
Auctions: US 3-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Monday March 10
Data: US February NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan February Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, January household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany January industrial production, trade balance, Italy January PPI, Sweden January GDP indicator, Denmark and Norway February CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Nagel speaks
Earnings: Oracle
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 07th March '25 US Jobs Report DayFriday March 7
Data: US February jobs report, January consumer credit, China February foreign reserves, trade balance, Germany January factory orders, France January trade balance, current account balance, Canada February jobs report, Q4 capacity utilisation rate
Central banks: Fed's Powell, Kugler, Bostic, Bowman and Williams speak, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel, Knot, Panetta, Kazaks and Centeno speak, BoE's Mann speaks
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 06 March ‘25Thursday March 6
Data: US January trade balance, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK February construction PMI, Germany February construction PMI, Eurozone January retail sales, Canada January international merchandise trade, Sweden February CPI
Central banks: ECB's decision, Fed's Waller speaks, BoE's DMP survey
Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, JD.com, Merck KGaA, Universal Music Group, Reckitt Benckiser, Hewlett Packard Enterprise
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 05th March ’25 Wednesday March 5
Data: US February ISM services, ADP report, January factory orders, China February Caixin services PMI, UK February new car registrations, official reserves changes, France January industrial production, Italy February services PMI, January retail sales, Eurozone January PPI, Canada Q4 labor productivity, Australia Q4 GDP, Switzerland February CPI
Central banks: Fed's Beige Book, BoJ's Uchida speaks, BoE's Bailey, Pill, Greene and Taylor speak
Earnings: Marvell, adidas, Zscaler, Bayer, Sandoz, Abercrombie & Fitch
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 04th March 25Tuesday March 4
Data: Japan February consumer confidence index, France January budget balance, Italy January unemployment rate, Eurozone January unemployment rate
Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks
Earnings: Crowdstrike, Sea, Flutter Entertainment, Thales, Ashtead, On Holding, Davide Campari-Milano
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Monday March 3
Data: US February ISM index, total vehicle sales, January construction spending, China February Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK January net consumer credit, M4, Japan January jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Q4 MoF survey, February monetary base, Italy February manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone February CPI, Canada February manufacturing PMI
Central banks: Fed's Musalem speaks
Earnings: Okta, AST SpaceMobile
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 27th Feb ’25Thursday Feubrary 27
Data: US January durable goods orders, pending home sales, February Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Japan February Tokyo CPI, January retail sales, industrial production, France February PPI, Italy February consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, December industrial sales, Eurozone January M3, February economic confidence, Canada Q4 current account balance, Switzerland Q4 GDP
Central banks: ECB's account of the January meeting, Fed's Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack, Harker and Barkin speak
Earnings: Iberdrola, AXA, Dell, LSEG, Autodesk, Rolls-Royce, Vistra, Monster Beverage, Eni, Haleon, Engie, Warner Bros Discovery, Telefonica, Endeavor
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 26th Feb ‘25Wednesday February 26
Data: US January new home sales, Germany March GfK consumer confidence, France February consumer confidence, Australia January CPI
Central banks: Fed's Barkin and Bostic speak, BoE's Dhingra speaks
Earnings: Nvidia, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, TJX, AB InBev, Synopsys, CRH, Snowflake, Stellantis, E.ON, Novonesis, TKO, Paramount Global
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN, 7-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 25th Feb ‘25 February Tuesday 25
Data: US February Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, December FHFA house price index, Q4 house price purchase index, Germany Q4 GDP detail, EU27 January new car registrations
Central banks: Fed's Logan, Barr and Barkin speak, ECB's Schnabel and Nagel speak, BoE's Pill speaks
Earnings: Home Depot, Intuit, Workday, Coupang, ASM
Auctions: US 5-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.