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The Day Ahead1. Economic Data Global Flash PMIs (July) US, UK, Eurozone, Germany, France, Japan: Flash PMIs will provide early insights into economic momentum. A drop in manufacturing could signal slower global growth, while a resilient services PMI may support the soft-landing narrative. US Data: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June): Gauges overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. New Home Sales (June): An indicator of housing market health; sensitive to interest rates. Initial Jobless Claims: Key labor market signal; any uptick could renew Fed pivot bets. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (July): Regional manufacturing health check. Europe: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (August): Expected to remain weak as consumers battle inflation and economic uncertainty. France Business Confidence (July): Likely stable, but exposed to global trade slowdown. EU27 New Car Registrations (June): A gauge of consumer demand and manufacturing trends. Canada: Retail Sales (May): Will inform expectations for Bank of Canada policy amid sticky inflation. 2. Central Banks ECB Decision: No rate change expected, but markets will focus on President Christine Lagarde's guidance. Dovish tones could support equities and weaken the euro. A more hawkish stance would likely lift yields and challenge risk sentiment. 3. Corporate Earnings Highlights Europe: LVMH, Nestle, Roche, BNP Paribas, TotalEnergies, Deutsche Boerse, Dassault, Carrefour: These heavyweights will give a cross-sector view of European corporate health, from luxury and consumer goods to banking and energy. US: Intel, Honeywell, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Newmont, Digital Realty Trust: Key earnings for tech, industrials, real estate, and commodities sectors. Airlines (American, Southwest, Wizz Air): Expected to reflect strong summer travel demand but face cost pressures. Dow Inc.: A proxy for global industrial activity. Asia: SK Hynix, Nokia: Key semiconductor and telecom insights. Galderma: Investor interest growing post-IPO. 4. US Treasury Auction 10-Year Note Auction: Closely watched amid changing Fed expectations. A strong auction (high demand, low yield) could ease pressure on long-term rates. A weak auction could steepen the yield curve and weigh on equities. Conclusion Thursday’s session is data-heavy with major flash PMIs providing first signals on global growth trends, especially amid hopes of a soft landing. The ECB decision may steer European market sentiment, with any shift in tone critical for bonds and the euro. Corporate earnings from giants across luxury, energy, tech, transport, and finance will offer broad insights into economic resilience and margin pressures. The US 10-yr auction adds another layer of market tension, especially as inflation and rate expectations evolve. Market Sensitivity: High. Expect volatility as investors digest macro signals, central bank cues, and corporate earnings all in one trading day. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Economic Data US June Existing Home Sales (10:00 ET): Will gauge housing demand resilience amid high mortgage rates. A weaker print may support rate cut expectations. Eurozone July Consumer Confidence (Flash): Important for sentiment around ECB rate policy. Any downside surprise could weigh on the euro. Central Banks BoJ’s Uchida Speaks: Watch for any shift in tone post-yield curve control tweak. A hawkish slant may support JPY and pressure Japanese equities. Earnings – High-Impact Reports Tech & Comms: Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), IBM, T-Mobile US (TMUS) – Key for Nasdaq sentiment and AI/cloud/EV momentum. Industrial & Energy: GE Vernova, Equinor, Freeport-McMoRan – Outlooks can move energy, copper, and renewables sectors. Financials & Payments: Fiserv, UniCredit – Insight into global payment volumes and eurozone banking resilience. Consumer & Healthcare: Chipotle, Hilton, Thermo Fisher, Boston Scientific – Consumption trends, travel recovery, and health sector resilience in focus. Fixed Income US 20-Year Bond Auction (13:00 ET): Watch for demand metrics (bid-to-cover, indirect bids). Weak take-up could push yields higher and pressure equities. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Data Releases: US: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity – A pulse-check on services sector strength. Positive surprise could boost USD and Treasury yields. Richmond Fed manufacturing & business conditions – Insight into regional factory health; any contraction signals broader economic weakness. UK: June Public Finances – Higher borrowing may raise concerns about fiscal headroom, putting pressure on gilts and GBP. France: June Retail Sales – A soft read may point to waning consumer demand, affecting Eurozone growth expectations. Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Market-sensitive. Traders will watch closely for clues on rate cut timing—September odds remain high. ECB Lending Survey: Tightening credit standards may reinforce the case for ECB to hold or ease. Could weigh on EUR if dovish tones dominate. BoE Governor Bailey Speaks: Could guide GBP volatility. Hawkish lean might delay rate cut pricing. RBA July Minutes: Will reveal internal debate over inflation and growth. May impact AUD if dovish or hint at hikes. Earnings to Watch: Tech & Industrials: SAP, Texas Instruments, RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman – Key for assessing global capex and defense spending cycles. Texas Instruments: A bellwether for chip demand—guidance will drive semiconductor sentiment. Lockheed/Northrop: Defense outlook in focus amid geopolitical tensions. Consumer & Financials: Coca-Cola, Capital One, Equifax, General Motors, Sherwin-Williams – Consumer strength, credit conditions, and input cost pressures in focus. Capital One, Equifax: Loan growth and credit quality trends will signal consumer resilience or stress. GM: Comments on EV outlook and pricing will be market-moving. Healthcare & Industrials: Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Sartorius: Indicators of medtech demand and R&D cycles. Trading Implications: Expect rate-sensitive assets (USD, US yields, GBP) to move on central bank commentary. Risk sentiment may shift post-earnings depending on guidance, especially from tech and defense names. Watch EUR reaction to ECB lending data; dovish tilt may push EUR/USD lower. AUD volatility possible if RBA minutes are unexpectedly hawkish or dovish. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data & Central Bank Updates US Leading Economic Index (June) Fell by 0.1%, pointing to ongoing weakness in manufacturing, jobs, and housing. Markets may view this as a soft growth signal, potentially influencing rate cut expectations. China Loan Prime Rates (LPR) No change: 1-year at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5%. This steady stance follows slightly better Q2 growth, but continued weak domestic demand leaves room for cuts later this year. Canada Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) & Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) June data expected to remain weak after prior months of declining input prices—keeping inflation pressures subdued. Bank of Canada Q2 Business Outlook Survey Sentiment weakened slightly. Firms see stable sales but remain cautious. Inflation expectations eased, but growth outlook is soft. Earnings Summary Verizon: EPS ~$1.19, stable wireless trends in focus. Roper: Strong SaaS growth, margins under watch. NXP Semiconductors: EPS down YoY, weak chip demand. Ryanair: Profit doubled to €820m, strong summer outlook. Domino’s Pizza: Awaiting release; steady U.S. growth expected. Trading Impacts USD: Mild bearish bias from soft data. CNY: Stable; easing risk remains. CAD: Limited support, weak price data. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadUnited States June PPI: Not released yet — important for inflation outlook. Industrial Production (June): –0.2% month-on-month (weaker than expected). Capacity Utilisation: Fell to 77.4% from 77.7%. NY Fed Services Business Activity (July): Awaiting release. United Kingdom CPI (June): +3.6% year-on-year — higher than May’s 3.4%. Driven by food and air travel. RPI (June): +4.3% year-on-year — unchanged. House Price Index (May): Home prices +3.9% YoY; rents +6.7% YoY — showing persistent housing inflation. Eurozone / Italy / Canada Italy & Eurozone Trade Balance (May): Not released yet. Canada Housing Starts (June): Awaiting release. Central Banks Federal Reserve: Beige Book due today — expected to provide insights into regional economic conditions. Speeches from Logan, Hammack, Barr, Williams, Barkin — may influence interest rate expectations. Earnings Reports (Major Companies Today) United States: Johnson & Johnson Bank of America ASML Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs Kinder Morgan United Airlines Alcoa Europe: Sandvik (Sweden) Market Takeaways Key Theme Market Relevance US Output Weakness May support dovish Fed tone, bond yields could ease. UK Inflation Surprise Could delay Bank of England rate cuts; GBP may gain. Central Bank Watch Fed speeches and Beige Book in focus for policy clues. Earnings Season Major US banks and industrials could drive equity volatility. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadMacro Data Highlights United States June CPI – Crucial inflation gauge; likely to shape Fed rate expectations. Empire Manufacturing Index (July) – Regional economic activity snapshot. China Q2 GDP – Key read on the health of the world’s second-largest economy. June Retail Sales / Industrial Production / Home Prices – Important for tracking domestic demand and real estate trends. Europe Germany & Eurozone ZEW Surveys (July) – Investor sentiment indicators, especially relevant amid sluggish European growth. Eurozone May Industrial Production – Tracks output momentum in manufacturing-heavy economies. Italy May Government Debt – Sovereign debt level insights amid fiscal scrutiny. Canada June CPI – Important for BoC policy outlook. Existing Home Sales / May Manufacturing Sales – Indicators of economic activity and housing market resilience. Central Bank Speakers Fed: Bowman, Barr, Collins, Barkin – Watch for comments on inflation and rate cut timing. BoE: Governor Bailey – May impact GBP and UK rate expectations. Earnings (Focus: Financials) JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock Q2 results will offer insights into: Net interest income trends Credit quality & loan growth Capital market activity (BlackRock focus on AUM and inflows) Trading Takeaway U.S. CPI and bank earnings are the top market movers – inflation print could shift rate cut expectations for September. China data may influence commodity and EM sentiment. Fed/BoE speakers may provide policy clarity amid disinflationary trends. Financials earnings will be key to market tone, especially for value stocks and financial sector ETFs. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
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The Day Ahead China – June Trade Balance Exports rose 5.8% year-on-year, beating expectations, as exporters rushed to ship goods before new U.S. tariffs. Imports increased 1.1% year-on-year, recovering slightly from a previous drop. Trade surplus expanded to $114.7 billion from $103.2 billion in May. Takeaway: Export strength is driven by temporary factors. Weak imports still point to fragile domestic demand. Japan – May Core Machinery Orders & Capacity Utilisation Core machinery orders (a key CapEx gauge) fell 0.6% month-on-month — a softer decline than expected. Orders were still up 4.4% year-on-year. Broader machinery orders (including volatile sectors) rose 3.8% month-on-month. Takeaway: Capital spending is holding up, but investment is uneven. Manufacturing remains cautious amid external uncertainties. ECB – Vujčić & Cipollone Speeches Vujčić: Inflation is near target; further rate cuts may not be needed unless data changes. He supports a patient approach. Cipollone: Focused on the digital euro, stressing the need for secure and inclusive payment systems. Takeaway: The ECB is moving into a “wait-and-see” mode. The digital euro remains a strategic priority. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadFriday, July 11 – Key Economic Data Summary: US: June federal budget balance will shed light on fiscal health. A wider deficit may raise debt concerns and impact bond markets. UK: May monthly GDP is crucial for gauging recession risk. Weak growth could pressure the pound and fuel rate cut expectations. Germany: June wholesale prices and May current account data will influence ECB policy views and Euro sentiment. Falling prices support easing; a lower surplus signals trade weakness. Canada: June jobs report and May building permits highlight labor and housing trends. Strong jobs may delay rate cuts; weak permits suggest housing softness. Market Focus: Currency and bond market volatility likely, especially in GBP, CAD, and EUR, with equities reacting to growth signals. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data Overview: United States – Initial Jobless Claims: This weekly indicator will offer a timely snapshot of US labor market conditions. A rise could signal softening employment dynamics, potentially supporting a dovish bias from the Fed. Conversely, sustained low claims would reaffirm resilience in the jobs market, complicating rate-cut timing. United Kingdom – June RICS House Price Balance: This measure of sentiment among surveyors regarding house prices will provide insight into the UK housing market. A negative reading would suggest downward pressure from higher mortgage rates, while stability or improvement may reflect increased buyer demand amid easing inflation. Japan – June Producer Price Index (PPI): Key for tracking upstream price pressures. Slowing PPI growth would suggest disinflationary momentum, reducing the urgency for further BoJ tightening. Any upside surprise may reinforce speculation of policy normalization beyond the recent rate hike. Italy – May Industrial Production: A barometer of Eurozone manufacturing health. Weak output would highlight the region's ongoing industrial stagnation, potentially reinforcing the ECB’s dovish tilt. Resilience could challenge expectations of sustained easing. Scandinavia – CPI & GDP Indicators: Denmark & Norway June CPI: Will test disinflation progress. Norway, in particular, could see market repricing of Norges Bank's stance if inflation proves stickier than expected. Sweden May GDP Indicator: Offers a snapshot of economic momentum. Weakness could justify the Riksbank’s cautious stance despite persistent inflation concerns. Central Bank Speakers: Federal Reserve – Musalem and Daly: Markets will be looking for clarity on rate cut timing. If comments lean dovish, they could reinforce market pricing for a September cut. Any resistance to easing amid still-strong activity data would introduce volatility. European Central Bank – Cipollone and Villeroy: Focus will be on signaling around September policy. Villeroy, in particular, is seen as a policy bellwether—any firm commitment to a second rate cut could steepen the EUR yield curve and weigh on the euro. Hawkish caution, however, may reflect concerns about lingering service inflation. Takeaway: Thursday’s data and central bank commentary will refine expectations for H2 policy shifts. Jobless claims and CPI prints across Europe remain pivotal for gauging the pace of disinflation, while central bank rhetoric may hint at how aggressively easing cycles might proceed amid mixed economic signals. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data Highlights: 🇺🇸 US Wholesale Sales (May): Signals business demand. Weaker = bearish USD, growth worries. Stronger = supports USD, may lift yields. 🇨🇳 China Inflation (June CPI & PPI): Key for deflation risks. Low CPI/PPI = bearish CNY, AUD, metals, more rate cut talk. Stronger numbers = risk bounce, may lift AUD and commodities. 🇯🇵 Japan Machine Tool Orders & Money Supply (M2/M3): Shows capex and liquidity. Weak orders = bearish JPY, signs of slowdown. Limited impact unless there's a surprise. Central Bank Focus: 🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes: Hawkish tone = stronger USD, weaker stocks/gold. Dovish tone = bullish risk, weaker USD. 🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision: Expected hold at 5.50%, but tone matters. Hawkish = NZD up, especially vs AUD/JPY. Dovish = NZD drops, AUDNZD could rise. 🇪🇺 ECB’s Nagel & Guindos: Watch for rate cut clues. Dovish = EUR weakens. Hawkish = EUR support, esp. vs JPY/CHF. Trade Setups to Watch: USD trades post-FOMC (DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY). NZD crosses after RBNZ (NZDUSD, AUDNZD). AUD & metals reacting to China inflation. EUR pairs ahead of more ECB talk Thursday. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadData Releases: United States: NFIB Small Business Optimism (June): Offers insights into the health of the US small business sector. A lower-than-expected reading may point to rising concern over economic conditions and future earnings amid persistent inflation and tight credit. NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Closely watched for signs of shifting consumer sentiment. Any uptick could reinforce expectations of policy caution from the Fed. Consumer Credit (May): Indicates household borrowing trends. A sharp slowdown may reflect waning consumer confidence or the impact of high interest rates. Japan: Economy Watchers Survey (June): A forward-looking gauge of economic sentiment among service sector workers. Deterioration would suggest weakening domestic demand. Bank Lending (June): Reflects the availability and uptake of credit; slowing lending growth would hint at weakening economic momentum. May BoP Current Account & Trade Balance: Current account surplus strength often reflects export health and foreign income. A narrowing surplus may indicate external demand headwinds. Germany & France: May Trade and Current Account Balances: Provide signals on Eurozone’s external sector strength. Germany’s export engine will be in focus given recent signs of industrial weakness. France’s figures will also be monitored for imbalances amid sluggish domestic demand. Central Bank Developments: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy Decision: The RBA held rates steady, as expected, amid persistent inflation in services. While the bank acknowledged progress on headline inflation, it retained a tightening bias, citing risks from strong wage growth and sticky price pressures. Markets are increasingly sensitive to signs of future hikes, particularly with global central banks pivoting toward a more dovish stance. European Central Bank (ECB): ECB’s Joachim Nagel reiterated a cautious tone, emphasizing the need for data-dependency in future policy moves. He signaled concern about upside risks to inflation, especially from services, reinforcing the ECB’s slow path to easing despite recent rate cuts. His comments support market pricing of only gradual rate reductions through the remainder of 2025. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Data Highlights: China Foreign Reserves (June): China's FX reserves data will be closely watched for signs of capital outflows or PBoC intervention, especially amid ongoing yuan stability efforts and recent volatility in global markets. Japan Labor Cash Earnings & Economic Indices (May): Labor cash earnings are a key wage inflation indicator. Any upside surprise could fuel speculation around BoJ normalization. The leading and coincident indices will offer insight into Japan's near-term growth trajectory, particularly in the context of subdued domestic demand. Germany Industrial Production (May): As a bellwether for the Eurozone, this release will help assess the strength of Germany’s industrial rebound. Weakness could reinforce concerns about stagnation in Europe’s largest economy, especially given recent soft factory orders. Eurozone Retail Sales (May): Consumer spending remains critical for the ECB’s policy path. This data will provide clues on household demand resilience amid still-high core inflation and restrictive policy settings. Sweden CPI (June): A key input for Riksbank policy. Any persistent inflationary pressure may challenge the case for further rate cuts, especially as the central bank navigates a weak krona and external pressures. Central Bank Speakers: ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann: Both are considered hawkish members. Their commentary will be scrutinized for signals on the timing and pace of additional rate cuts following June’s initial move. Markets will be sensitive to any shift in tone on inflation persistence or the economic outlook. Implications: The day is rich in second-tier but thematically important data that could shape regional monetary policy expectations. The euro and European rates markets may see modest volatility depending on German IP and ECB commentary. Japanese wage data could revive BoJ tightening bets if stronger than expected. China’s reserve position may reflect broader macro-policy adjustments ahead of key summer policy meetings. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead - US Employment, NFP in focus Thursday, July 3 – Market Focus Key Economic Data: US: June Jobs Report – Crucial for gauging labor market momentum and Fed rate expectations. ISM Services PMI (June) – Offers insight into the largest sector of the economy. May Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims – Together provide a fuller picture of external demand, industrial health, and labor market stress. China: Caixin Services PMI (June) – Reflects private sector service activity and post-pandemic demand strength. UK: June Official Reserve Changes – Could hint at FX intervention patterns or reserve rebalancing. Italy: Services PMI (June) – A regional gauge of Eurozone service sector strength. Canada: May International Merchandise Trade – Key for assessing external demand and commodity flow impact. Switzerland: June CPI – Critical for SNB policy outlook, especially post recent rate cut. Central Bank Highlights: ECB: June Meeting Account – May provide clarity on the timing and pace of further policy normalization. Fed: Bostic Speaks – Watch for clues on his stance regarding rate cuts amid mixed data signals. BoJ: Takata Speaks – Important for any policy tone shift as the market eyes potential tightening. BoE: June Decision Maker Panel (DMP), Q2 Bank Liabilities & Credit Conditions Surveys – These offer insights into business inflation expectations and credit supply constraints, key for the BoE’s future policy path. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadWednesday, July 2 – Key Highlights: US ADP Employment Report (June): A crucial preview to Friday’s NFP; strong numbers may delay Fed cuts, weak data could boost cut expectations. Eurozone Labor Market Data (May): Italy and Eurozone unemployment rates will offer insight into the region’s economic resilience; deterioration may weigh on ECB sentiment. Japan Monetary Base (June): Watch for shifts in liquidity trends as the BoJ cautiously normalizes policy. France Budget Balance (May): A worsening fiscal position could raise concerns amid ongoing political uncertainty. Canada Manufacturing PMI (June): A weak print would reinforce the case for continued BoC rate cuts. Central Bank Watch: ECB: Lagarde, Guindos, Cipollone, and Lane speak; markets will look for clues on inflation and rate path. BoE: Taylor (or another senior official) speaks; comments may impact UK rate expectations ahead of the election. Market Focus: Labor market and fiscal data, paired with a heavy central bank speaker lineup, will guide rate cut expectations and shape cross-asset risk sentiment. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Major Economic Data: US: ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook. Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength. Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check. China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown. Japan: Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy. Eurozone: June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path. Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators. Central Bank Highlights: ECB Sintra Forum Panel: Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE). Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks. Other ECB Speakers: Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves. ECB Consumer Survey: Offers insight into household inflation expectations. Market View: US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak. Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance. China’s PMI is a global growth signal. Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook. Overall: Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead A packed data slate and central bank commentary will shape market sentiment today. Key focus will be on China’s official PMIs for June, offering the first major insight into the health of the global manufacturing cycle as Q3 begins. A soft print could amplify global growth concerns, while a surprise to the upside may support risk sentiment across Asia and commodities. In the US, attention will turn to the June MNI Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for further clarity on the state of US industry after mixed regional data earlier this month. The consumer credit and M4 money supply data, along with Q1 current account figures, could influence the USD via their implications for domestic demand and external balances. The UK sees the release of the Lloyds Business Barometer, which will provide a gauge of corporate confidence amid sticky inflation and persistent BoE rate cut speculation. In the Eurozone, eyes will be on Germany’s June CPI flash estimate, retail sales, and import prices, all feeding into inflation expectations ahead of the ECB’s July policy meeting. Italy’s CPI and Eurozone May M3 will also be watched closely for signs of disinflation and liquidity trends. From Japan, May industrial production and housing starts will help assess whether the domestic economy is managing to maintain momentum amid a weak yen and global headwinds. On the central bank front, the ECB Forum in Sintra kicks off, running through July 2. President Christine Lagarde is due to speak, and any remarks on the rate path or inflation outlook will be closely parsed. Markets will also hear from Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee, potentially offering clues on the FOMC’s stance amid rising speculation around a September cut. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Friday, June 27 – Market Focus A packed session lies ahead with key inflation, growth, and sentiment data releases from major global economies, alongside speeches from central bank officials that could shape rate expectations. United States: Markets will closely watch the May PCE inflation report—the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation—alongside personal income and spending figures. A cooler-than-expected core PCE could fuel speculation of rate cuts later this year. Also on tap: Kansas City Fed's June services activity, providing a regional pulse on service-sector momentum. China: May industrial profits will offer further clarity on the pace of China's manufacturing rebound, with implications for commodity-linked assets and Asian market sentiment. Japan: A comprehensive data dump includes June Tokyo CPI—a key inflation proxy—alongside the May jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, and retail sales. These will be crucial for BOJ watchers amid ongoing policy normalization debates. Europe: France releases a triple dose of data—June CPI, May PPI, and consumer spending—while Italy publishes June consumer and business sentiment figures, plus May PPI and April industrial sales. At the Eurozone level, June economic confidence will help assess regional momentum amid ECB’s dovish pivot. Canada: The spotlight is on April GDP, with the economy's performance key to shaping BOC rate expectations. A weak print could cement the case for further easing. Central Banks: Speeches by Fed’s Williams, Hammack, and Cook, along with ECB’s Rehn, may provide clues on future policy paths, especially if they comment on recent inflation data or labor market dynamics. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
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The Day Ahead Economic Data Highlights (US & Europe): A busy day for economic indicators, particularly out of the US. Durable Goods Orders (May): Markets will watch for signs of resilience or weakness in US manufacturing, with core capital goods orders acting as a proxy for business investment. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Could offer a broader snapshot of US economic momentum ahead of the July FOMC. Pending Home Sales: Will shed light on housing market trends amid fluctuating mortgage rates. Advance Goods Trade Balance & Wholesale Inventories: These will feed into Q2 GDP tracking estimates. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (June): Regional data may add color to the broader ISM picture. Initial Jobless Claims: As always, a key gauge of labor market tightness. Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (July): Expected to reflect persistent economic pessimism, weighing on EUR sentiment. Central Bank Speakers: A full slate of Fed, ECB, and BoE commentary may offer insight into diverging policy paths. Fed’s Barkin, Hammack, and Barr could provide updates on inflation dynamics and balance sheet strategy. ECB’s Schnabel and Guindos may hint at the pace of further policy easing amid eurozone stagnation. BoE’s Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Breeden speak following recent UK inflation and growth data, with focus on the rate outlook into Q3. Corporate Earnings: Nike (NKE): Focus will be on forward guidance and China recovery amid margin pressure and inventory management. H&M: May offer cues on European consumer demand and retail sector performance. Other Key Events: European Council Summit (Brussels, through June 27): Leaders gather to discuss key policy areas including fiscal rules, Ukraine aid, and EU top jobs. Potential EUR sensitivity depending on political developments. US 7-Year Note Auction: Watch for demand and yield levels, as Treasury issuance remains in focus amid deficit concerns. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
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The Day AheadMacro Data Highlights: US May New Home Sales Expectations: Potential rebound after recent housing softness. Market Impact: A strong print may bolster the view that the housing market is stabilizing despite elevated mortgage rates. Weakness could reinforce recessionary concerns and increase calls for Fed easing later in the year. Asset sensitivity: USD, US Treasuries, homebuilder stocks (e.g., DHI, LEN). Japan May PPI Services Focus: Cost pressures in the service sector. Market Impact: A rise in service PPI would support the BoJ’s inflation persistence narrative, adding weight to the case for policy normalization. Asset sensitivity: JPY, JGB yields, Japanese equities. France June Consumer Confidence Focus: Consumer resilience in the face of political uncertainty and inflation. Market Impact: With France facing election-driven volatility, a sharp drop could signal consumption headwinds for the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Asset sensitivity: EUR, CAC 40, French bond spreads. EU27 May New Car Registrations Focus: Gauge of consumer durable goods demand and manufacturing health. Market Impact: Could affect sentiment toward auto-sector equities and EU industrial momentum. Asset sensitivity: EUR, auto stocks (VW, Stellantis), DAX. Australia May CPI Critical Watch: This is the main event for the AUD and RBA rate outlook. Market Impact: A hotter-than-expected reading would raise RBA rate hike odds and could trigger AUD upside and bond sell-off. A soft print would ease policy pressure. Asset sensitivity: AUD, ASX, Australian government bonds. Central Bank Watch: Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Senate Banking Committee) Theme: Economic outlook, inflation, and the policy path. Market Impact: Markets will scrutinize language for any shift in tone regarding rate cuts. With data cooling but inflation still sticky, Powell’s balance between patience and flexibility is key. Asset sensitivity: USD, S&P 500, Fed rate futures. BoJ June Meeting Summary & Tamura Speech Focus: Clarity on BoJ's policy tightening roadmap. Market Impact: Look for signals on timing of next rate hike and QT strategy. Tamura is considered hawkish, and any comments on rate paths could strengthen JPY. Asset sensitivity: JPY crosses, Nikkei, JGBs. BoE’s Lombardelli Speech Relevance: Comes amid UK stagflation fears. Market Impact: Insight into how the BoE sees services inflation persistence and wage dynamics. Market remains torn between one last hike or holding steady. Asset sensitivity: GBP, Gilt yields, FTSE. Earnings: Micron Technology (MU) Focus: AI-driven memory chip demand, China exposure, forward guidance. Market Impact: As a bellwether for semis and AI-linked cyclicals, MU's results can sway broader tech sentiment. Asset sensitivity: NASDAQ, SOX index, NVDA/AMD peers. US Treasury Auctions: 2-Year FRN & 5-Year Note Auctions Importance: Critical given recent curve steepening and softening inflation. Market Impact: Weak demand could lift yields and support USD; strong bid-to-cover may indicate confidence in disinflation trend and support risk assets. Asset sensitivity: US Treasuries, DXY, equity risk sentiment. Overall Outlook: June 25 shapes up as a high-stakes day, especially for the USD, AUD, and JPY, with potential for meaningful moves in rates and risk assets. Powell’s tone and Australian inflation are key pivot points, while Micron’s earnings will offer a litmus test for AI/tech exuberance. Keep an eye on European political sentiment as well, especially tied to French consumer mood. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data: US: Consumer confidence (June) Regional business activity from Philadelphia Fed and Richmond Fed House prices (April, FHFA) Q1 current account balance Germany: Ifo business sentiment survey (June) Canada: Consumer price inflation (May) Central Bank Activity: US Federal Reserve: Chair Powell testifies before Congress Other Fed officials (Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr) also speak European Central Bank (ECB): President Lagarde, Guindos, and Lane give remarks Bank of England (BoE): Governor Bailey and other key members (Greene, Ramsden, Breeden) speak Corporate Earnings: Key results from FedEx and Carnival Government Bond Auctions: US Treasury sells 2-year notes Other Events: NATO Summit continues (ends June 25) China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets (through June 27) Summary: It’s a heavy day for central bank speeches, led by Fed Chair Powell. Markets will also be watching Canadian inflation and US confidence data for clues on growth and rate paths. The NATO summit and China’s NPC meeting add geopolitical weight, while FedEx earnings may provide insight into global demand trends. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Economic Data: Markets will focus on early June PMI data from the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and the Eurozone, giving a snapshot of global economic health. The US May existing home sales report will show how housing is holding up under high mortgage rates. Central Banks: Several Fed officials (Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Williams, Kugler) will speak—investors will watch for hints on rate cuts. From the ECB, speeches by President Lagarde and Nagel may offer insight into the pace of European rate cuts. Other: The EU-Canada summit may highlight cooperation on trade, clean tech, and key resources, though it's unlikely to move markets much. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadFriday, June 20 – Key Economic Data & Central Bank Events United States Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (June) – Regional manufacturing sentiment indicator. Leading Economic Index (May) – Composite of 10 leading indicators, used to forecast future economic activity. China 1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rates – Benchmark lending rates set by the PBoC; key for signaling monetary policy stance. United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence (June) – Measures households’ economic sentiment. Retail Sales (May) – Key consumer spending metric. Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) – Government fiscal position. Japan National CPI (May) – Headline and core inflation data, relevant for BoJ policy stance. Germany Producer Price Index (PPI, May) – Upstream inflation measure, potential signal for consumer price trends. France Business Confidence (June) – Insight into industrial sentiment. Retail Sales (May) – Consumer activity and domestic demand tracker. Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June, flash) – Early indication of household sentiment across the bloc. M3 Money Supply (May) – Broad monetary aggregate, important for ECB’s inflation monitoring. Canada Retail Sales (April) – Key consumer spending indicator. Industrial Product Price Index (May) – Measures price changes for goods sold by manufacturers. Central Banks ECB – Publishes its Economic Bulletin, offering insights into economic conditions and policy outlook. Bank of Japan (BoJ) – Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks; markets will watch for commentary on yield curve control, inflation expectations, and timing of policy normalization. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Market Drivers: 1. Australia Jobs Data (May) • Jobs unexpectedly fell → AUD weakened • AUDUSD dipped toward support; bearish bias unless RBA signals hawkish stance • Best plays: Short AUD vs NZD, USD 2. Swiss & Norwegian Rate Cuts • SNB cut to 0.0%, Norges Bank cut to 4.25% • Both were dovish surprises → CHF and NOK sold off • Best plays: Long USDCHF, EURCHF, and EURNOK 3. Bank of England (BoE) • Held rates at 4.25%, but 2 members voted to cut • Slightly dovish tilt → GBP under mild pressure 4. ECB Speakers • Lagarde gave no policy signals • Watch Villeroy/Nagel for hawkish comments → may support EUR 5. Juneteenth Holiday in US • US markets closed → low liquidity, possible volatility in FX during London/Asia sessions Trade Focus Summary: • Sell CHF & NOK on dovish central bank moves • Fade AUD rallies after weak jobs data • Watch GBP for downside on BoE dovish lean • EUR in play if ECB officials remain hawkish • Expect thin trading due to US holiday This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation