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The Day Ahead - US Employment, NFP in focus Thursday, July 3 – Market Focus Key Economic Data: US: June Jobs Report – Crucial for gauging labor market momentum and Fed rate expectations. ISM Services PMI (June) – Offers insight into the largest sector of the economy. May Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims – Together provide a fuller picture of external demand, industrial health, and labor market stress. China: Caixin Services PMI (June) – Reflects private sector service activity and post-pandemic demand strength. UK: June Official Reserve Changes – Could hint at FX intervention patterns or reserve rebalancing. Italy: Services PMI (June) – A regional gauge of Eurozone service sector strength. Canada: May International Merchandise Trade – Key for assessing external demand and commodity flow impact. Switzerland: June CPI – Critical for SNB policy outlook, especially post recent rate cut. Central Bank Highlights: ECB: June Meeting Account – May provide clarity on the timing and pace of further policy normalization. Fed: Bostic Speaks – Watch for clues on his stance regarding rate cuts amid mixed data signals. BoJ: Takata Speaks – Important for any policy tone shift as the market eyes potential tightening. BoE: June Decision Maker Panel (DMP), Q2 Bank Liabilities & Credit Conditions Surveys – These offer insights into business inflation expectations and credit supply constraints, key for the BoE’s future policy path. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadWednesday, July 2 – Key Highlights: US ADP Employment Report (June): A crucial preview to Friday’s NFP; strong numbers may delay Fed cuts, weak data could boost cut expectations. Eurozone Labor Market Data (May): Italy and Eurozone unemployment rates will offer insight into the region’s economic resilience; deterioration may weigh on ECB sentiment. Japan Monetary Base (June): Watch for shifts in liquidity trends as the BoJ cautiously normalizes policy. France Budget Balance (May): A worsening fiscal position could raise concerns amid ongoing political uncertainty. Canada Manufacturing PMI (June): A weak print would reinforce the case for continued BoC rate cuts. Central Bank Watch: ECB: Lagarde, Guindos, Cipollone, and Lane speak; markets will look for clues on inflation and rate path. BoE: Taylor (or another senior official) speaks; comments may impact UK rate expectations ahead of the election. Market Focus: Labor market and fiscal data, paired with a heavy central bank speaker lineup, will guide rate cut expectations and shape cross-asset risk sentiment. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Major Economic Data: US: ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook. Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength. Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check. China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown. Japan: Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy. Eurozone: June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path. Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators. Central Bank Highlights: ECB Sintra Forum Panel: Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE). Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks. Other ECB Speakers: Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves. ECB Consumer Survey: Offers insight into household inflation expectations. Market View: US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak. Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance. China’s PMI is a global growth signal. Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook. Overall: Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead A packed data slate and central bank commentary will shape market sentiment today. Key focus will be on China’s official PMIs for June, offering the first major insight into the health of the global manufacturing cycle as Q3 begins. A soft print could amplify global growth concerns, while a surprise to the upside may support risk sentiment across Asia and commodities. In the US, attention will turn to the June MNI Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for further clarity on the state of US industry after mixed regional data earlier this month. The consumer credit and M4 money supply data, along with Q1 current account figures, could influence the USD via their implications for domestic demand and external balances. The UK sees the release of the Lloyds Business Barometer, which will provide a gauge of corporate confidence amid sticky inflation and persistent BoE rate cut speculation. In the Eurozone, eyes will be on Germany’s June CPI flash estimate, retail sales, and import prices, all feeding into inflation expectations ahead of the ECB’s July policy meeting. Italy’s CPI and Eurozone May M3 will also be watched closely for signs of disinflation and liquidity trends. From Japan, May industrial production and housing starts will help assess whether the domestic economy is managing to maintain momentum amid a weak yen and global headwinds. On the central bank front, the ECB Forum in Sintra kicks off, running through July 2. President Christine Lagarde is due to speak, and any remarks on the rate path or inflation outlook will be closely parsed. Markets will also hear from Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee, potentially offering clues on the FOMC’s stance amid rising speculation around a September cut. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Friday, June 27 – Market Focus A packed session lies ahead with key inflation, growth, and sentiment data releases from major global economies, alongside speeches from central bank officials that could shape rate expectations. United States: Markets will closely watch the May PCE inflation report—the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation—alongside personal income and spending figures. A cooler-than-expected core PCE could fuel speculation of rate cuts later this year. Also on tap: Kansas City Fed's June services activity, providing a regional pulse on service-sector momentum. China: May industrial profits will offer further clarity on the pace of China's manufacturing rebound, with implications for commodity-linked assets and Asian market sentiment. Japan: A comprehensive data dump includes June Tokyo CPI—a key inflation proxy—alongside the May jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, and retail sales. These will be crucial for BOJ watchers amid ongoing policy normalization debates. Europe: France releases a triple dose of data—June CPI, May PPI, and consumer spending—while Italy publishes June consumer and business sentiment figures, plus May PPI and April industrial sales. At the Eurozone level, June economic confidence will help assess regional momentum amid ECB’s dovish pivot. Canada: The spotlight is on April GDP, with the economy's performance key to shaping BOC rate expectations. A weak print could cement the case for further easing. Central Banks: Speeches by Fed’s Williams, Hammack, and Cook, along with ECB’s Rehn, may provide clues on future policy paths, especially if they comment on recent inflation data or labor market dynamics. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
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The Day Ahead Economic Data Highlights (US & Europe): A busy day for economic indicators, particularly out of the US. Durable Goods Orders (May): Markets will watch for signs of resilience or weakness in US manufacturing, with core capital goods orders acting as a proxy for business investment. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Could offer a broader snapshot of US economic momentum ahead of the July FOMC. Pending Home Sales: Will shed light on housing market trends amid fluctuating mortgage rates. Advance Goods Trade Balance & Wholesale Inventories: These will feed into Q2 GDP tracking estimates. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (June): Regional data may add color to the broader ISM picture. Initial Jobless Claims: As always, a key gauge of labor market tightness. Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (July): Expected to reflect persistent economic pessimism, weighing on EUR sentiment. Central Bank Speakers: A full slate of Fed, ECB, and BoE commentary may offer insight into diverging policy paths. Fed’s Barkin, Hammack, and Barr could provide updates on inflation dynamics and balance sheet strategy. ECB’s Schnabel and Guindos may hint at the pace of further policy easing amid eurozone stagnation. BoE’s Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Breeden speak following recent UK inflation and growth data, with focus on the rate outlook into Q3. Corporate Earnings: Nike (NKE): Focus will be on forward guidance and China recovery amid margin pressure and inventory management. H&M: May offer cues on European consumer demand and retail sector performance. Other Key Events: European Council Summit (Brussels, through June 27): Leaders gather to discuss key policy areas including fiscal rules, Ukraine aid, and EU top jobs. Potential EUR sensitivity depending on political developments. US 7-Year Note Auction: Watch for demand and yield levels, as Treasury issuance remains in focus amid deficit concerns. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
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The Day AheadMacro Data Highlights: US May New Home Sales Expectations: Potential rebound after recent housing softness. Market Impact: A strong print may bolster the view that the housing market is stabilizing despite elevated mortgage rates. Weakness could reinforce recessionary concerns and increase calls for Fed easing later in the year. Asset sensitivity: USD, US Treasuries, homebuilder stocks (e.g., DHI, LEN). Japan May PPI Services Focus: Cost pressures in the service sector. Market Impact: A rise in service PPI would support the BoJ’s inflation persistence narrative, adding weight to the case for policy normalization. Asset sensitivity: JPY, JGB yields, Japanese equities. France June Consumer Confidence Focus: Consumer resilience in the face of political uncertainty and inflation. Market Impact: With France facing election-driven volatility, a sharp drop could signal consumption headwinds for the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Asset sensitivity: EUR, CAC 40, French bond spreads. EU27 May New Car Registrations Focus: Gauge of consumer durable goods demand and manufacturing health. Market Impact: Could affect sentiment toward auto-sector equities and EU industrial momentum. Asset sensitivity: EUR, auto stocks (VW, Stellantis), DAX. Australia May CPI Critical Watch: This is the main event for the AUD and RBA rate outlook. Market Impact: A hotter-than-expected reading would raise RBA rate hike odds and could trigger AUD upside and bond sell-off. A soft print would ease policy pressure. Asset sensitivity: AUD, ASX, Australian government bonds. Central Bank Watch: Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Senate Banking Committee) Theme: Economic outlook, inflation, and the policy path. Market Impact: Markets will scrutinize language for any shift in tone regarding rate cuts. With data cooling but inflation still sticky, Powell’s balance between patience and flexibility is key. Asset sensitivity: USD, S&P 500, Fed rate futures. BoJ June Meeting Summary & Tamura Speech Focus: Clarity on BoJ's policy tightening roadmap. Market Impact: Look for signals on timing of next rate hike and QT strategy. Tamura is considered hawkish, and any comments on rate paths could strengthen JPY. Asset sensitivity: JPY crosses, Nikkei, JGBs. BoE’s Lombardelli Speech Relevance: Comes amid UK stagflation fears. Market Impact: Insight into how the BoE sees services inflation persistence and wage dynamics. Market remains torn between one last hike or holding steady. Asset sensitivity: GBP, Gilt yields, FTSE. Earnings: Micron Technology (MU) Focus: AI-driven memory chip demand, China exposure, forward guidance. Market Impact: As a bellwether for semis and AI-linked cyclicals, MU's results can sway broader tech sentiment. Asset sensitivity: NASDAQ, SOX index, NVDA/AMD peers. US Treasury Auctions: 2-Year FRN & 5-Year Note Auctions Importance: Critical given recent curve steepening and softening inflation. Market Impact: Weak demand could lift yields and support USD; strong bid-to-cover may indicate confidence in disinflation trend and support risk assets. Asset sensitivity: US Treasuries, DXY, equity risk sentiment. Overall Outlook: June 25 shapes up as a high-stakes day, especially for the USD, AUD, and JPY, with potential for meaningful moves in rates and risk assets. Powell’s tone and Australian inflation are key pivot points, while Micron’s earnings will offer a litmus test for AI/tech exuberance. Keep an eye on European political sentiment as well, especially tied to French consumer mood. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data: US: Consumer confidence (June) Regional business activity from Philadelphia Fed and Richmond Fed House prices (April, FHFA) Q1 current account balance Germany: Ifo business sentiment survey (June) Canada: Consumer price inflation (May) Central Bank Activity: US Federal Reserve: Chair Powell testifies before Congress Other Fed officials (Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr) also speak European Central Bank (ECB): President Lagarde, Guindos, and Lane give remarks Bank of England (BoE): Governor Bailey and other key members (Greene, Ramsden, Breeden) speak Corporate Earnings: Key results from FedEx and Carnival Government Bond Auctions: US Treasury sells 2-year notes Other Events: NATO Summit continues (ends June 25) China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets (through June 27) Summary: It’s a heavy day for central bank speeches, led by Fed Chair Powell. Markets will also be watching Canadian inflation and US confidence data for clues on growth and rate paths. The NATO summit and China’s NPC meeting add geopolitical weight, while FedEx earnings may provide insight into global demand trends. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Economic Data: Markets will focus on early June PMI data from the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and the Eurozone, giving a snapshot of global economic health. The US May existing home sales report will show how housing is holding up under high mortgage rates. Central Banks: Several Fed officials (Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Williams, Kugler) will speak—investors will watch for hints on rate cuts. From the ECB, speeches by President Lagarde and Nagel may offer insight into the pace of European rate cuts. Other: The EU-Canada summit may highlight cooperation on trade, clean tech, and key resources, though it's unlikely to move markets much. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadFriday, June 20 – Key Economic Data & Central Bank Events United States Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (June) – Regional manufacturing sentiment indicator. Leading Economic Index (May) – Composite of 10 leading indicators, used to forecast future economic activity. China 1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rates – Benchmark lending rates set by the PBoC; key for signaling monetary policy stance. United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence (June) – Measures households’ economic sentiment. Retail Sales (May) – Key consumer spending metric. Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) – Government fiscal position. Japan National CPI (May) – Headline and core inflation data, relevant for BoJ policy stance. Germany Producer Price Index (PPI, May) – Upstream inflation measure, potential signal for consumer price trends. France Business Confidence (June) – Insight into industrial sentiment. Retail Sales (May) – Consumer activity and domestic demand tracker. Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June, flash) – Early indication of household sentiment across the bloc. M3 Money Supply (May) – Broad monetary aggregate, important for ECB’s inflation monitoring. Canada Retail Sales (April) – Key consumer spending indicator. Industrial Product Price Index (May) – Measures price changes for goods sold by manufacturers. Central Banks ECB – Publishes its Economic Bulletin, offering insights into economic conditions and policy outlook. Bank of Japan (BoJ) – Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks; markets will watch for commentary on yield curve control, inflation expectations, and timing of policy normalization. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Market Drivers: 1. Australia Jobs Data (May) • Jobs unexpectedly fell → AUD weakened • AUDUSD dipped toward support; bearish bias unless RBA signals hawkish stance • Best plays: Short AUD vs NZD, USD 2. Swiss & Norwegian Rate Cuts • SNB cut to 0.0%, Norges Bank cut to 4.25% • Both were dovish surprises → CHF and NOK sold off • Best plays: Long USDCHF, EURCHF, and EURNOK 3. Bank of England (BoE) • Held rates at 4.25%, but 2 members voted to cut • Slightly dovish tilt → GBP under mild pressure 4. ECB Speakers • Lagarde gave no policy signals • Watch Villeroy/Nagel for hawkish comments → may support EUR 5. Juneteenth Holiday in US • US markets closed → low liquidity, possible volatility in FX during London/Asia sessions Trade Focus Summary: • Sell CHF & NOK on dovish central bank moves • Fade AUD rallies after weak jobs data • Watch GBP for downside on BoE dovish lean • EUR in play if ECB officials remain hawkish • Expect thin trading due to US holiday This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead - Fed rate decision day 🇺🇸 US Housing & Jobless Data: Signs of slowdown could boost rate cut bets and weaken the USD. Strong numbers may do the opposite. TIC Flows: Shows foreign demand for US assets—important for long-term USD strength. 🇬🇧 UK May Inflation (CPI): A hot reading could delay Bank of England rate cuts and strengthen the pound. A weak reading would do the opposite. 🇯🇵 Japan Trade & Machinery Orders: Weak data could weaken the yen further. 🇳🇿 New Zealand Q1 GDP: Poor growth could drag the NZD lower. A surprise beat might boost it. 🇸🇪 Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision: No change expected, but any dovish hints may weaken the krona. 🇪🇺 Eurozone ECB Speakers (Lane, Villeroy, etc.): Markets are watching for clues on whether more rate cuts are coming. Dovish talk could push the euro lower. Trading Themes Today: Watch UK inflation for big GBP moves. US data could shift Fed expectations and USD direction. NZD and JPY sensitive to economic data. EUR direction depends on ECB tone. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Tuesday, June 17 – Market Summary (Key Data & Events) U.S. Focus: Retail Sales (May) – Key consumer demand gauge; strong data may lift USD and yields. Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization (May) – Insight into manufacturing health; impacts USD, rates. Import/Export Price Index (May) – Inflation clues; affects Fed expectations. NAHB Housing Index (June) – Early read on housing sentiment. NY Fed Services Index, Business Inventories (April) – Lower-tier data. 5-Year TIPS Auction – Watch for inflation expectations via demand. Global Data: Germany & Eurozone ZEW Surveys (June) – Investor sentiment; EUR-sensitive. Canada International Securities Transactions (April) – Tracks foreign capital flows; affects CAD. Central Banks: BoJ Decision – High impact for JPY, JGBs, and Nikkei; watch policy tone. ECB Speakers (Villeroy, Centeno) – May guide rate expectations and EUR. Trading Relevance: FX: USD, JPY, EUR in focus. Equities: Retail data, BoJ stance may drive risk appetite. Rates: Data-heavy day for yields; TIPS auction key for inflation outlook. Commodities: Industrial activity and prices affect demand/inflation views. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Data Releases: US Empire Manufacturing Index (June): Snapshot of NY manufacturing. May impact USD and Treasuries. China (May): Retail sales, industrial production, home prices, and property investment – critical for global growth sentiment. Impacts commodities, AUD, and risk appetite. Eurozone Q1 Labour Costs: Monitored by ECB for wage inflation. Affects EUR and rate expectations. Canada (May): Housing starts and home sales – may move CAD slightly. Central Bank Speakers: ECB's Nagel (hawkish) and Cipollone (dovish): May hint at future ECB rate moves. Watch EUR reaction. Bond Market: US 20-year Treasury auction: Tests investor demand for long-term US debt. Can influence yields and USD. Trading Focus: Watch early Asia session for China data impact. ECB commentary and bond auction may shape Euro and US session direction. Possible volatility in EUR, USD, bonds, commodities, and equity futures. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June) High impact on USD, bonds, and equities Traders watch this for consumer confidence and inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations could support USD and push yields up. Japan – April Capacity Utilisation & Tertiary Industry Index Moderate impact on JPY and Japanese stocks Weak data may suggest ongoing BoJ stimulus, which could weaken the yen. Germany – May Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Moderate impact on EUR A key inflation signal — lower prices could reinforce expectations for ECB rate cuts. Italy – April Trade Balance Low to moderate impact on EUR Surplus or deficit gives clues about external demand but usually doesn’t move markets much alone. Eurozone – April Trade Balance & Industrial Production High impact on EUR IP shows economic strength or weakness. Soft numbers could pressure the euro further. Canada – April Manufacturing Sales & Q1 Capacity Utilisation Moderate to high impact on CAD Strong data supports the Canadian dollar and may delay Bank of Canada rate cuts. Key Market Watch Points: USD: Watch for inflation expectations in the Michigan data. EUR: Sensitive to signs of slowing growth or inflation. JPY: Likely weak if Japan data disappoints. CAD: Positive surprises could support CAD strength. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained
by TradeNation
The Day AheadU.S. Events May PPI (Inflation): Big market mover. If it’s hot, expect higher yields and stronger USD. If it cools, stocks and bonds may rally. Jobless Claims: Signals labor market strength. A jump could raise recession fears. Q1 Household Net Worth: Minor impact, but relevant for consumer spending outlook. UK Data April GDP: Big for GBP. A weak print could hurt the currency. RICS House Prices: Moderate impact; shows housing trends. Europe Germany Current Account + Italy Unemployment: Lower market impact. May affect eurozone sentiment slightly. Central Banks Multiple ECB Speakers: Watch for hints on rate cuts or QT. Could move the euro and EU bonds if guidance shifts. Earnings Adobe (after market close): Important for tech stocks and Nasdaq. Watch AI commentary and guidance. US 30-Year Bond Auction Big for bond yields. Weak demand = yields rise → pressure on stocks Strong demand = yields fall → support for risk assets This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data Releases: United States: May CPI (Consumer Price Index): Key inflation gauge. Market watchers will scrutinize headline and core inflation figures for Fed policy implications. Federal Budget Balance (May): Indicates monthly fiscal deficit/surplus; relevant for fiscal health and debt trajectory. Japan: May PPI (Producer Price Index): Tracks inflation at the wholesale level. Can provide early signs of price pressure trends. Canada: April Building Permits: A forward-looking indicator for the housing market and broader construction activity. Central Bank Activity: European Central Bank (ECB): Speeches by Philip Lane and Piero Cipollone: Markets will look for any forward guidance or monetary policy clues, especially post-rate decision commentary and inflation outlook. Corporate Earnings: Oracle (ORCL): Q4 earnings; significant due to cloud and AI-related revenue developments. Inditex (ITX.MC): Parent of Zara; important for insights into consumer demand trends in retail and global operations, especially in Europe. Government Bond Auctions: United States: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction: Key for assessing investor appetite for longer-dated debt, influencing yields and broader financial conditions. Other Notable Items: UK Spending Review Analysis Adjustment: Could suggest fiscal policy shifts or re-prioritizations; analysts and investors may reassess UK economic and political outlooks. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Market Watch – Tuesday, June 10 (Technical Focus) Key Data Releases (Potential Volatility Triggers): US NFIB Small Business Optimism (May) – Watch for shifts in sentiment that could influence the USD and S&P 500 direction. 3-Year Note Auction – Yields could impact Treasury curve dynamics; monitor for demand strength or weakness. UK Average Weekly Earnings (Apr) Unemployment Rate (Apr) Jobless Claims Change (May) These labor data points are pivotal for GBP crosses. Stronger wage data may support GBP/USD, especially near key resistance around 1.2800. Japan M2 & M3 Money Supply (May) Machine Tool Orders (May) Typically low volatility, but may offer insights for JPY if surprise deviation occurs. Italy Industrial Production (Apr) – Weakness could pressure FTSE MIB if it breaks below short-term support near 34,000. Sweden GDP Indicator (Apr) – May impact SEK, especially against EUR if growth deviates significantly. Norway & Denmark CPI (May) – Inflation data could move NOK and DKK, especially if it challenges central bank guidance. Central Bank Speakers (Volatility Risk): ECB: Villeroy, Holzmann, Rehn Hawkish or dovish signals may drive short-term EUR/USD moves; key resistance to watch: 1.0900. Watch German bund yields for confirmation. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead🇺🇸 United States NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Rose slightly to 3.1% in May from 3.0% in April. This suggests increasing consumer concerns about short-term inflation, potentially influencing Fed policy. Wholesale Trade Sales (April): Awaiting data. 🇨🇳 China May CPI: Up 0.3% YoY, but fell 0.1% MoM — indicating weak consumer demand. May PPI: Fell 1.4% YoY, a slower decline than before, suggesting factory-gate prices may be stabilizing. Trade Balance: Surplus widened to $103.22 billion. Exports rose 4.8% YoY, but exports to the U.S. dropped 34.5%, reflecting trade tensions. 🇯🇵 Japan Economy Watchers Survey (May): Sentiment remains cautious due to global economic uncertainties. Bank Lending (May) and BoP Current Account/Trade Balance (April): Data not yet released but a current account surplus is expected. 🇪🇺 ECB Frank Elderson (ECB Executive Board): Speaking today. Markets will watch closely for signals on future ECB rate moves in light of recent inflation and growth data. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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The Day Ahed🇺🇸 United States May Jobs Report: Expected to show 125,000 new jobs (vs. 177,000 in April); unemployment rate likely steady at 4.2%. Slower hiring may reflect effects of trade tensions. April Consumer Credit: Will reveal household borrowing trends. "Buy Now, Pay Later" usage is up, especially among younger, wealthier consumers. Consumer stress rising. 🇯🇵 Japan April Household Spending: Fell 0.1% YoY, below expectations (+1.4%). Inflation outpaced wage growth, curbing spending. Leading Economic Index: Fell 0.7%, pointing to a potential slowdown due to weak new orders and U.S. trade policy uncertainty. Coincident Index: Up 0.1% in January, but down 0.4% over six months—indicates stagnating current economic activity. 🇩🇪 Germany April Industrial Production: Rose 0.3% MoM, rebounding after a sharp March decline. Industrial and mining sectors showed improvement. Trade Balance: Data awaited. Recent uptick in orders (+0.6% in April) suggests signs of manufacturing recovery. 🇫🇷 France Trade Balance & Current Account: April data pending. In recent months, the current account deficit narrowed due to reduced goods imports. Industrial Production: Will provide further insight into economic activity. 🇪🇺 Eurozone April Retail Sales: Scheduled for release. Will indicate regional consumer spending strength. 🇨🇦 Canada May Jobs Report: Will offer a snapshot of labor market health amid economic uncertainty. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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The Day Ahead Economic Data Releases United States April trade deficit widened. Initial jobless claims due today. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May remains below 50, indicating contraction. China Caixin Services PMI (May): 51.1 (up from 50.7). Composite PMI fell to 49.6, showing overall contraction. Japan May Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 (up from 48.7), slower contraction. Germany April factory orders and May construction PMI due today. Italy April retail sales due. Eurozone April Producer Price Index (PPI) due. Canada April international merchandise trade data due. Sweden May Consumer Price Index (CPI) due. Central Banks Federal Reserve: Speeches by Kugler and Harker. European Central Bank: Interest rate decision expected today. Bank of England: Greene and Breeden to speak; DMP (Decision Maker Panel) survey release. Earnings Broadcom (AVGO): Shares recently up 1.67%. Lululemon (LULU): Shares recently up 0.11%. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Economic Events – Wednesday, June 4, 2025 🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Jobs Report (May): A preview of private job growth; markets watch this ahead of Friday's official jobs report. ISM Services PMI (May): Measures health of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 = growth. Fed Speakers: Bostic and Cook will speak—markets listen for interest rate hints. Beige Book: Fed’s regional economic summary, useful for understanding business trends. 🇬🇧 UK Official Reserves (May): Change in the UK’s foreign reserves—can hint at FX market activity or interventions. 🇮🇹 Italy Services PMI (May): Shows whether the Italian services sector is expanding or shrinking. 🇨🇦 Canada Q1 Labor Productivity: Tracks efficiency of Canadian workers—important for inflation outlook. Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates at 2.75% due to sticky inflation, even as the economy slows. Summary: Today’s key focus is on U.S. jobs and services data, the Fed’s tone, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth, or central bank policy shifts. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data United States April Factory Orders: A modest increase would indicate steady demand in manufacturing, supporting a soft-landing narrative. JOLTS Report: Elevated job openings may point to a tight labor market, reinforcing wage and inflation pressures, potentially influencing the Fed’s rate path. May Total Vehicle Sales: A rebound would suggest resilient consumer demand and could support equities tied to autos and credit. Global China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May): Fell to 48.3, signaling contraction. Weak manufacturing momentum due to renewed U.S. tariffs may pressure Asian markets and commodity demand. Eurozone May CPI (Inflation): Core CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year. Sticky inflation could keep the ECB cautious, reducing chances of near-term rate cuts. Japan Monetary Base (May): Watching for signals on BOJ’s monetary support levels amid a weakening yen. Other notable data: France April budget balance, Italy April unemployment rate, Eurozone April unemployment rate, and Switzerland May CPI—all of which could affect regional currencies and bond markets. Central Bank Activity Federal Reserve: Goolsbee, Cook, and Logan are speaking. Markets will watch for any hints on the Fed’s inflation outlook and the timing of potential rate cuts. Bank of Japan: Governor Ueda indicated openness to rate hikes if inflation picks up again. This could strengthen the yen or raise Japanese bond yields. Earnings to Watch CrowdStrike (CRWD): Expected to show strong revenue growth (~20%), though a slowdown in annual recurring revenue (ARR) could raise concerns about sustainability. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Will shed light on corporate IT and cloud infrastructure spending trends. Dollar General (DG): Will reflect consumer sentiment and spending patterns, especially in economically sensitive segments. NIO Inc. (NIO): Earnings will focus on EV delivery volumes, pricing, and profitability amidst fierce competition in China. Trading Implications U.S. Dollar (USD): May strengthen if JOLTS data shows labor market tightness and Fed speakers lean hawkish. Treasuries: Strong inflation or labor data could push yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Equities: Potential for volatility in tech and consumer sectors tied to earnings and vehicle sales figures. Commodities: China’s weak PMI may weigh on oil and industrial metals. Forex: Euro, yen, and Swiss franc likely to react to inflation data and central bank commentary. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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