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SPY- Bearish Megaphone - UpdateJust posting another update here on the SPY as it closed out the week with a hard rejection off of its 200-Day SMA & a significant RSI-Based supply level. Additionally, it would appear that a bearish megaphone is still playing out as it was simultaneously rejected off the upper trendline (See previous charts below). On top of this, a bearish butterfly harmonic pattern has formed on the daily timeframe accompanied by some slight bearish hidden divergence on the RSI. On another note, the RSI is now in overbought territory & it would look like the MACD is about to form a death cross; with buyer volume decreasing relative to seller volume increasing, it will be interesting to see where the SPY goes from here, especially heading into a big week economically speaking. Just some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime- (Previous Charts Attached Below) --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
1
This recession identifies as an apache helicopterChart displays the US inflation rate and US unemployment rate. Red zones mark recessions (from stlouisfed.org). 6/8 of the past recessions are lead by inflation rates surpassing 5%. Only the dotcom recession had an inflation rate below 5%, and the other was COVID, which we are experiencing the resulting inflation currently. so, every time the inflation rate jumps, unemployment follows on a lag. we can see that the ends of recessions are usually marked by a declining inflation rate and peaking unemployment rate. but remember, this is not a recession and our country is in great hands. ECONOMICS:USIRYY FRED:UNRATE
ECONOMICS:USIRYYShort
by Feech37
1
DXY D1 - Short Correction ExpectedDXY D1 Like we mentioned, non-farm payrolls, average earnings and unemployment figures are coming out this afternoon 1:30pm UK time, so as the NA session comes into play. We can expect some nice volume. This may be the trend setter for the month ahead. We are obviously hoping to see the USD correct and pull down towards that 94.500 region, which would compliment our cable longs. Additionally, this would give us confidence in looking for resumed USD bull continuations from the 94.500 price.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
More USDollar strength? #DXY + Fundamental driversHello traders! I expect more upside for the dollar both technically and fundamentally. Fundamental Bias: Weak Bullish Primary Driver: 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Rationale: More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid- 2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation. All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish. Primary Driver: 2. Real Yields Rationale: With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term. Primary Driver: 3. The global risk outlook Rationale: One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata.org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term, the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) Primary Driver: 4. Economic Data Rationale: Economic data will be very light in the incoming week with the main highlights being PCE and Advanced GDP (old news). Also keep in mind that the Fed has largely reduced the impact of economic data going into the November FOMC meeting by already acknowledged a Nov taper and a possible mid-2022 conclusion. So, even though data will be important, it’s unlikely to sway the Fed from their tapering plans. Primary Driver: 5. CFTC Analysis Rationale: Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +872 with a net non-commercial position of +35934. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning measures over 2-standard deviation on a 1-year look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks while still trading close to YTD highs. Thus, reflationary data and overall risk sentiment will be a key focus for the USD in the week ahead. Have a great week! Vitez
TVC:DXYLong
by Vitezabraham
Weekly trend swing trading idea Nzd/JpyHello Traders, Here you can find my weekly trade ideas. They mainly serve to achieve a possible learning effect or to show other perspectives how other traders set their positions and act, should be very interesting. The focus is on the "point of view" (learning through seeing). All trades amount to Fundamental, Economical, Mathematical, - Technical information. In the 4 years that I have been trading now, I have simply learned that the trades are only as good as the information that is based on them, the higher the density of information, the better and more likely that the trade will work. Every week on Sunday there is an update, because new information is published over the period. Depending on how these end, the trade is either closed "early" or it continues on its way towards TP (Take Profit). CRV (opportunity-risk ratio) is ALWAYS 1 to 3. Trading style includes hedge and trend based swing trading and position trading approaches. Please use your own criteria (entry, exit,etc.) and don't be a copy, otherwise it won't work, find out which style suits to you. My Trades are always Market Entry, like you can see. Enjoy. Haave a nice Week :)
Long
by JR_Tradingideas
Short term Bullish Sentiment on the NZDThe NZD is bullish in the short term as the DXY weighs heavily on the US elections in November. The country's GDP contracted in Q2 by -12.2% as opposed to the consensus of -12.8%. After elections in New Zealand, leadership is said to be more inclusive and this might have a positive impact on the economy as it recovers. The CFTC COT Weekly Data shows that investors remain long on the NZD futures with 6k+ net positions after 4k long positions were opened. Technically, the NZDUSD is in a flag and I would expect the price to test the 2019 pivot highs after which I'll make an update I'll keep an eye out for data and news from the US as stimulus deal talks resume and news of COVID19 treatment medicine and vaccine development continues to lift the US equity markets.
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
IBM Earnings report will be published todayNYSE:IBM The American technology giant publishes its quarterly earnings report with a very optimistic forecast. The report will be published after the market closes. Earlier this month the company announced that it is splitting itself into two separate public companies, a move that could attract new investors due to the result expected - a cut in the share price. In recent years, the company has been mentioned as irrelevant and unable to keep the technology development speed like other leading tech companies such as Apple and Samsung but, with more than 350,000 employees serving clients in 170 countries and a great roadmap for long term development projects, IBM is absolutely still is considered a tech giant. Analysts expect a Gross margin of 48.4% for the quarter. Over the last 2 years, IBM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 38% of the time. Revenue in 2019: $77 billion Quarterly Revenue Forecast: $2.58 billion
NYSE:IBMLong
by FinanCollege
NZDUSD | MY PERSPECTIVE FOR THE WEEKThe NZD/USD pair is struggling to make a decisive move in either direction amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers in the latter part of the week. I am keeping a tab on a possible driver this week as we await Monetary Policy, RBNZD Rate and Interest rate decision on Wednesday for a possible headway. The NZD/USD pair closed the third straight day in the positive territory on Thursday but failed to preserve its bullish momentum on Friday which is a signal of a strong move coming in the following week(s). With over 80pips in our direction (see link below for reference purpose) before experiencing a decline later in the week; insinuates a weakness of Buyers to push the price to complete Harmonic expectations (AB =CD) hereby making 0.66000level my Key level again for this week as I shall be looking at price reaction at this juncture in the market. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Channel | Trendline | Breakdown Observation: i. A Breakdown (0.66375) and Re-test of Current Bullish Trendline (0.66900) on 4H gives a clue in the direction of a shift at the moment that drives towards a Bearish bias. ii. I was expecting the price to make a Harmonic move (AB = CD) last week but unfortunately, it didn't as the 0.66900 level appears to be a level packed with Selling Pressure driving price further down. iii. A significant Breakdown of my Key level in the following week(s) shall be a Bearish signal for me as I will be anticipating a hit of my Daily Trendline (seen on the chart) which also coincides with the nearest major Support @ 0.64000 (a psychological level). iv. It is worthy to note that the economic news coming up mid-week shall be a significant driver in the direction of market participants in the following week(s). Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3 Potential Duration: 5 to 10 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. NirvanaForex Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
1
SPX at the crossroad- Macro overview and economic indicatorsPlease click like and follow me if you like my post. Much appreciated! SPX has been going on a W ride for a while and is currently only down around 15 percent from its mid Feb high, putting it in the midpoint of the correction and recession phase. If this trend continues on, it is safe to expect that SPX will more likely to challenge its mid Feb high than retest its March 23 low. However, the current resistance lvl seems to have stalled its momentum somewhat as the weekly candle indicates an indecisive market sentiment. It is worth to see if there is an accelerating net inflow into bond and equity fund and net outflow from liquid assets such as money market fund & saving deposits and total deposits at US commercial banks in the upcoming weeks. In order to sustain the rally, more investors need to to put their money back into the equity market. Some encouraging news and signs are already happening- *Stocks have vastly outperformed bonds by 11.92 percentage points during the last 20 trading days *Call options far outnumbered put options *VIX is steadily declining and briefly went below 40 few days ago. *Remdesivir- Early result of severe clinical trial is encouraging. Few caveats- Still wait for the result of full clinical trial and more data from randomized controlled trial is needed. Also, the severe trial was conducted without the placebo group, meaning researchers don't not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug. *Abbott recently announced new coronavirus antibody test that could do up to 20 million screenings in June. This antibody testing allows us to know if someone has been previously infected, if recovered from the infection provides the immunity and how long antibodies stay in the body. *Exponential growth has slowed down a little bit the past few days, but the fatality rate is still climbing. Hospitalized # seems to have flattened the past few days even though the positive testing rate has gone up to nearly 20%. Overall, the growth rate has gone down to the average of single digit 7 % compared to the double digit growth rate few weeks ago. It is safe to assume that US is potentially transitioning from the stage of slowed down exponential growth to the stage of flattened curve. On the other hands, all economic indicators and warning signs point to the rather bleak outlook- *Vast majority of stocks is still below SMA200 and SMA50 *The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds that of hitting 52-week highs *Retail sales tanked 8.7% in March, the largest decline since the government started tracking retail sales in 1992 *March CPI fell 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since Jan.2015 *Industrial production dropped 5.4% in March, largest drop since 1946 *The March PMI registered 49.1 percent, an 1 percentage drop from the February. The New Orders Index suffered a drastic decline of 7.6 percentage due to the export contraction, suggesting a weakening demand from customers. *Initial claim is down from its peak while continuous claim continues to surge *unemployment rate is projected to be as high as 20% *Crude Oil declined 67.50% since the beginning of 2020 *The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012 *Building permits in the United States fell 6.8 percent, the sharpest drop since July 2015 *Housing starts in the US plunged 22.3%, the biggest decline in housing starts since 1984 *Small business rescue loan program already hit the $349 billion limit *Massive credit downgrade as corporate earning approaches and many corporate bonds fall to distress lvl *Market-cap to GDP is still in the overvalued zone In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, central bank launched its latest program that allow foreign central banks to convert their Treasury securities into dollars in order to alleviate the USD shortage problem. This was a response to the ever-increasing liquidity crunch that is rarely seen in traditionally the most liquid market in the world. In recent days, treasury yields have not fallen like they usually do in the past during the event of massive sell-offs in equities. Other worrisome signs are the elimination of reserve requirement and the inclusion of previously excluded category of less-than-investment grade corporate bond to the Fed asset purchases. The result of these drastic measures is sure to ballon the Fed balance sheet, federal deficit and debt-GDP ratio in the near future, further compounding the U.S Debt dilemma. Lastly, the potential danger of second wave infection in China cannot be overstated. The fragility of the global supply chain is already being exposed during the pandemic and the problem will be further exacerbated if the world's second largest economy fails to prevent the re-emergence of virus. Overall, I am cautiously optimistic. There are many potential events and developments to pay attention to such as the serious supply chain bottleneck and essential worker shortage that could trigger the massive sell-off. Also, I am waiting to see how the market will react to the upcoming quarterly GDP, unemployment # and corporate earning. Stay safe out there my friends! Please do your own due diligence. Not the investment advice, just my personal take on the current situation.
SP:SPX
by Libratus
2
Worse-than-expected economic data implies S&P 500 downturnRetail sales data, industrial production data, and capacity utilization data for March all came in quite a bit worse than analyst forecasts today. The Empire State manufacturing index for April also hit a record low, falling nearly 40 points more than expected. Bankruptcies are also piling up this week at a much faster pace than last week. Publicly traded companies that declared bankruptcy include FTR , HOSS , and LKSD . Also at imminent bankruptcy risk are JCP , CLUB , and I . Lots of private companies have also gone into bankruptcy, including the XFL, True Religion, FoodFirst, Fairway, Pace Industries, Longview Power, and lots of small farmers in Wisconsin. The cities of Vancouver and El Cerrito are also on imminent bankruptcy watch. These metrics suggest to me that the jobless claims numbers Thursday are going to be bad again. I also think the market is overly optimistic about the long-term economic outlook and the return to normalcy once the economy reopens. Zacks, for instance, is forecasting that most of the lost jobs will return once this is all over. I'm less optimistic that companies, having burned a ton of cash, will be able to rehire the people they laid off. Some jobs are also being automated as we speak. Here's one example of the economic ripple effect the shutdown is going to have. Cities will lose 25-50% of their revenue this year, and they will somehow have to make up their budget shortfalls. Most of them will raise taxes, perhaps in the form of a temporary coronavirus tax. That will be a drag on economic recovery, which will take a lot longer as a result. In terms of technicals, I expect at minimum a near-term test of the 20-day moving average, and possibly the ten-year trend line.
SP:SPXShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
10
BTC- Volume, derivative, macro... Decoupling finally?For the first time since the corona virus started to ravaging the market in late Feb, BTC's price decouples from that of stock market. Please click like or follow me if you like my post! Really appreciated it. A lot of people think BTC failed its role as the recession-proof safe heaven. What they fail to understand is the true purpose of BTC, which is created to resist the unlawful seizure and confiscation, to avoid the loss of purchasing power typically associated with fiats due to their inflationary nature and to avoid the defunct that comes with the sovereign debt risk. BTC never claimed and nor does it ever try to be the safe-heaven asset during the recession. In order to make that assertion, it needs to be the asset that has the low volatility because investors tend to hold the low-volatility assets during the time of uncertainty. Few Macro list to go through #1. Recession is overdue for the U.S economy and Coronavirus could just be that catalyst that pops the debt bubble. The recession talk is, perhaps, premature, but not unwarranted. All three major stock market indexs' SMA 50 are ready to cross below their SMA 200. On the bright side, SPX and DOW have bullish divergence on the daily timeframe while Nasdaq does not. #2. If you believe the stock market will not fall below S&P's 2017 high, then we are near the bottom. IF you think we will go below 2017 high, then we still have the room to go even lower. #3. Pay attention to this moth's unemployment related indicators, retail metrics, manufacturing-related indexes and housing-related signals. Reports about rising jobless claims along with the potential 20% unemployment figure, if proven true, could further dampen investor's confidence. #4. Market will not fully recover from the coronovirus panic until the exponential growth slows down. Currently, U.S is approaching 10000 cases and the exponential growth does not seem to be slowing down even with the social distancing measure in place. Next week will be critical because spring break is just right around the corner... #5. It was a little disconcerting to see 1.5 trillion stimulus package to have a very little to no impact on the market. However, you can count on president Trump to do everything he can do rescue the freefalling stock market. U.S senate just passed the coronavirus relief bill and a larger aid package is expected to follow. Moreover, ECB just announced the stimulus package as well. The effect of all these measures will be determined once we get the more definitive timeline. #6. Did all the big players get out of their underwater positions in time or are they waiting to sell into the next rally before the market dips even further? If BTC continues to move on its own, then we can ignore everything I said above! If not, the strength of the U.S economy will determine which kind of halving we will see.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Libratus
Week Results: China, the euro and oil problemsThe past week has already habitually passed in the analysis of news around the coronavirus. The main result was the restoration of economic activity in China, which greatly reassured investors, and they returned to the usual occupation in recent years - the purchase of risky assets. As a result, US stocks updated historic highs. At the same time, one cannot but note the opposite trends - gold was in stable demand, but oil was under pressure. This already indicates that investors are seriously worried about the consequences of the epidemic, which are primarily manifested in a sharp decrease in demand for energy assets (the International Energy Agency even predicted the first quarterly decline in oil market demand in 10 years). Investor fears are much easier to understand than optimism in stock markets. Fears are something rational: it is not clear what real economic damage China and the world as a whole will be caused by the epidemic. Do not forget that the root of the problem may lie not even in the fact of a slowdown in economic activity, but in the ability of China to service its debts, which have already reached 300% of GDP. And the epidemic is still only growing: the number of deaths has approached 1700, and the number of infected has exceeded 50,000 (according to WHO). But optimism is something from the field of irrational and emotional. Since we believe that, in the long run, proponents of a reasonable assessment of the markets will be right, we, therefore, continue to recommend sales on stock markets as well as purchases of safe-haven assets. Speaking of sales in the US stock market. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that they will reduce the volume of interventions in the repo market. That is, cash injections will decrease. Which is very likely to provoke a decrease in demand in the stock market. In addition, this week we will look for opportunities for sales in the oil market. At least, if there is no news that Russia has decided to support Saudi Arabia and agrees to increase the volume of reduction in oil production. Well, or the epidemic will rapidly decline. In addition, this week we will continue to look for points of sale for the euro. The single European currency after a series of weak economic data, including a failure in industrial production, and close to zero GDP growth Euro zone looks extremely vulnerable. As for macroeconomic statistics this week, on the whole we are waiting for a relatively calm period. So, the markets will continue to follow the news from China and work out them first of all.
Short
by Trade24Fx
The news is all bad for the economy, good for goldThe economic news this week is pretty much all bad, with payroll data, manufacturing data, and non-manufacturing data all showing a broad slowdown across the whole economy. The dollar is showing real weakness amidst the slowdown. Both the dollar's weakness and the return of fear to the economy should be good for gold. Here are the critical levels to watch in the dollar. A break below the channel/trend line would signal an upward breakout for gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD On The Move!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD #Euro down on: - Disappointing German Manufacturing PMI (actual 41.4 vs expected 44.1 vs previous 43.5) - ECB could have made a mistake talking somewhat 'neutral' - Draghi's speech hinted to high uncertainty, decision-making harder and harder #Yen down on: - Disappointing Japanese Manufacturing PMI (actual 48.9 vs expected 49.8 vs previous 49.3) - Potential stimulus measures - Potential US-Iran deal #Dollar up on: - Trade talk optimism - Markit Manufacturing PMI (actual 51 vs expected 50.4 vs previous 50.3) #Pound down on: - Thomas cook sentiment - Parliament prorogation sentiment - Barnier's pessimistic comments Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Getting ready for a volatile day: pound and dollar have the bullLabor Day in the US and Canada led to a relatively calm day on the financial market. But today everything can change radically. On the one hand, Hurricane Dorian threatens to become the most powerful in history. This means that the potential damage could also become the most significant. Yesterday we promised to show the way how to make money on this kind of natural force majeure. Here are a couple of facts. Irma was the first Category 5 hurricane (like Dorian) provoked a sharp decrease in the number of new jobs created out of a farm sector in the United States (NFP indicator) in September 2017. With an average 200K number, its September figures were (the peak activity of Irma in the month of August) -33K (!). In 2018, hurricanes were less destructive, but the September NFPs came out below forecasts 30% (!)and much lower than the average. Thus, if the hurricane turns out to be quite destructive, we can expect weak figures for the US labor market for September-October. Accordingly, it will be possible to prepare in advance for the failed data and make money on it. But the consequences of Dorian are not clear yet and will manifest after some time, but in the UK everything can be much more dynamic. Today, the UK Parliament is returning from recess with the understanding that they have less than 10 days to stop Johnson, because on September 12 his activities will be suspended until mid-October (the UK will leave the EU on October 31). That is, today all sorts of sensational news are possible to happen. There are a lot of development options of events, starting from the law prohibiting exit without a deal, ending with the resignation of the Government or early elections.Thus, the dynamics of the pound so far seems completely unpredictable - it will be entirely determined by the results of the parliamentarians activities. Let's try to give an approximate plan for working with the pound, depending on certain results. We sell the pound if the Parliament can accept nothing, as this is likely to mean a "hard" Brexit. We buy the pound if a law is passed to ban the exit without a deal or if a vote of no confidence is put forward to the Government. We regard early elections as a neutral option with positive for the pound since it will at least delay the “hard” Brexit. Also, today it is worth paying attention to the ISM index of business activity in the USA, Michel Lagarde speech, as well as the index of business activity in the UK. Speaking of our other trading preferences for today, we note that we will continue to sell the euro, buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx