Economic Calendar: Top Market Events You Should Watch Out forMarkets tend to get especially volatile whenever there’s an economic report or some data dump that takes investors by surprise. That’s why we’re spinning up this Idea where we highlight all the major market-moving events you should watch out for when you do your trading.
Today, we look at the Economic Calendar .
🏦 Central Bank Meetings and Announcements
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Meetings
The US Federal Reserve holds Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings roughly every six weeks,or ( eight times a year ), to talk about monetary policy, including interest rates. Setting interest rates is arguably the most significant event with long-lasting consequences for markets.
Each of these meeting takes two days and wraps up with a speech by the gentleman who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon” — Fed boss Jay Powell.
• European Central Bank (ECB) Meetings
Similar to the Fed, the ECB holds regular meetings to decide on monetary policy and borrowing costs for the Eurozone.
ECB officials’ decisions sway financial markets, especially those based in the old continent. Indexes such as the Stoxx 600 Europe (ticker: SXXP ) and the European currency tend to fluctuate wildly during ECB events.
• Bank of England (BoE) Meetings
The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) frequently meets to discuss and set interest rates and other monetary matters.
Decisions made by BoE policymakers mainly affect the UK corner of the financial markets. That means elevated volatility in the British pound sterling and the broad-based UK index, the FTSE 100, among other UK-based trading instruments .
• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meetings
The BoJ holds policy meetings to decide on interest rates and monetary stimulus, among other central-bank topics.
Until recently, the Japanese central bank was the only one to sport a negative interest rate regime .
📝 Economic Data Releases
• Nonfarm Payrolls
In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary on the first Friday of every month. The data package includes the non-farm payroll print , which tracks how many new hires joined the workforce, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Monthly CPI measures the rate of inflation at the consumer level. The reading is closely monitored by the Fed in order to gauge the temperature of the economy. A reading too hot indicates an expanding economy, and vice versa.
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
Similar to CPI, PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level and can provide signals about inflation trends.
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Quarterly GDP churns out a comprehensive measure of a country's economic activity and growth.
• Retail Sales
Monthly retail sales indicate consumer spending patterns, which are a critical component of economic activity. The data shows whether consumers pulled back from spending or splurged like there’s no tomorrow.
• Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
PMI reports for manufacturing and services sectors lay out insights into business activity and economic health.
🏢 Corporate Earnings Reports
Publicly traded companies around the world release earnings reports every quarter. The hottest ones are America’s corporate giants, such as tech stocks , banking stocks , and more.
The quarterly earnings figures include financial performance for the most recent three months and forward-looking guidance, which comprises earnings and revenue expectations.
🌐 Geopolitical Events
Political developments, such as Presidential elections, and geopolitical tensions can have immediate and significant impacts on financial markets. These events are less predictable but are closely monitored by market participants and can quickly fuel volatility across asset classes, prompting investors to shuffle their portfolio holdings.
Final Considerations
Pay attention to these reports, events, and economic data and you’ll get to understand what moves markets. Anytime you witness a sharp reaction in gold ( XAU/USD ) or a quick reversal in the US dollar ( DXY ), it’s likely that the underlying factor is an economic report you didn’t know about.
If you do track them — which one is your favorite market report or economic news release? Let us know in the comments below!
Economicevent
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/1/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023
- PR High: 15536.00
- PR Low: 15522.50
- NZ Spread: 30.00
Economic Calendar Events:
08:30 – Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Payrolls
10:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
Long weekend - Holiday Monday
Continuing to inch daily supply higher
- Relatively same NZ spread as prev session
- Break into bull zone leading into London session
Evening Stats (As of 1:45 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 246.75
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 256K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -7.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Chop or Pop? Tackle This Week's Tricky Market On $ES_F & $SPYIntraday Update
Coming into this week, ES tested support at 4112 Friday with a double bottom. So far it’s been a choppy start to the OPEX week, with key support at 4132-29. There have been six round trips between ~4150s and 4120s, and we observed good follow-through in the market. 4155 just rejected down to 4136.
Last Week
We saw the market consolidating with 4165 resistance and 4115 support, as well as range expansion and complex trading patterns. The big picture context is a 1.5-month-long "megaphone" pattern, while the shorter term shows a smaller megaphone pattern with a 60% upside breakout bias. We also discussed the importance of level acceptance and not trading constantly in our trade recap.
Plan for the Week
Our focus this week is on navigating a tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181. The bull case for Monday is to defend 4129 and aim for 4145, 4158, and high 4170s. The bear case for Monday involves a loss of 4129 as the first warning, with a crack of 4112 for a real selloff. Expect tactical, trappy trading overall.
Economic Events
April Retail Sales: A potential downside surprise may affect rate pause and rate cut expectations.
April Industrial Production: Expected to be flat; a higher-than-expected reading may support the Fed's hawkish stance.
May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: An above-expectations reading is seen as inflationary.
Bonds Update
2-year Treasury yield at 4%, little changed
10-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.494%
30-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 3.831%
Support Levels
4129-32, 4118 (major), 4112 (major - broadening formation support), 4106, 4099 (major), 4089, 4078-81 (major), 4061, 4040-4045 (major), 4031, 4017-20 (major), 4005, 3980-85 (major), 3967 (major), 3950-54, 3937 (major).
Resistance Levels
4147, 4158 (major), 4172-75 (major), 4180, 4191 (major), 4205, 4212, 4217, 4227 (major), 4236 (major - broadening formation resistance), 4243, 4252, 4270-75 (major), 4286. 4158 as well as 4172-75 are decent zones to look for reactions as is 4191.
Summary
In summary, the market experienced consolidation and complex trading patterns last week. This week, our focus is on navigating the tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181, with both bull and bear case scenarios in play. Economic events, such as April Retail Sales and Industrial Production, may impact decisions on rate pauses and cuts.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
What are new-home sales and why do they matter to the economy?Upcoming week we have two important major events happening for the U.S , one of them is the new-home sales. But what exactly are new-home sales, and why do they matter? In this post, we'll break down what new-home sales are and explain why they're so important to the overall health of the economy. You also be more prepared and informed why the market moved in a certain way. Lets move on...
What are new-home sales and why do they matter to the economy?
New-home sales are a measure of trading activity in the market for newly built homes. The new-home sales data are important leading indicators of economic activity, providing timely information on changes in the demand for new homes, which directly affects decisions regarding investment, production, and employment. The data on new-home sales also provide valuable information on the market fundamentals that are shaping trading conditions in the market for newly built homes. The data can be used to inform decision-making about pricing, product mix, and other strategic considerations. In addition, the data can be used to assess market conditions and identify emerging trends. As such, new-home sales data are an important tool for monitoring and understanding the health of the economy.
See historical graph here:
fred.stlouisfed.org
Impact of new-home sales
When new-home sales activity levels rise, it has a positive impact on the economy as a whole. For consumers, this increased activity level leads to currency being put back into circulation. When builders see an increase in new-home sales, they are able to reinvest that currency into building more homes, which in turn provides more jobs for other industry players. The increased activity also has a positive impact on the stock market and it's currency, as builders and other companies who stocks are traded publicly see their stock prices increase. This provides more stability in the markets and can lead to more investors feeling confident about putting their money into the markets. Ultimately, when new-home sales activity levels increase, it provides a boost to the economy as a whole.
New-home sales are an important economic indicator because they signal overall consumer confidence and spending. Increased new-home sales activity levels have a ripple effect throughout the economy, benefiting consumers, builders, and other industry players. We shall see what impact the new-home sales will have this week on EURUSD.
We can currently see we are stuck in a range between support and resistance - let's see what the week will bring.
Trade safe around these hours! Cheers.
