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Second TP @1,320 for GOLD Good Morning, Over a week ago, I posted a long position on Gold @,1275, showing a nine month trend and decided to take the risk. Half positions were to be closed @1,300 which occurred on Friday, May 31st 2019. Here is an update on where to close the remaining positions. In this chart, the Fib. retracement of 78.60% and the wave movement of the flag pole both indicate a target @ 1,320 and I shall be satisfied with all my profits. Never be greedy!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nixxflixx
ZIRP-unintended consequences--fisher international effectbased on interest rates and the importance of the euro and USD for global trade. we're seeing an irrational shift thats artificially effecting equity volatility. ZIRP or zero interest rate policy in euro zone. is driving demand for USD and us treasuries vs eurozone risk off assets. this flow is exploiting an already dramatic difference in interest rates globally. when bonds rally equities tend to fall. the bund last week hit an all time low of -20% yield on the german 10 year. aint that crazy people are dumb enough to buy an asset that has a 20% premium attached. thats right people are so afraid theyre willing to buy something and receive 20% less afterwards.. that being said people are choosing to go to US risk off USD and treasuries instead where they actually have a chance of making money. that transition is causing volatility. equity volatility is non-exsistant, but bond flows are overpowering flows.. INVESTORS MUST REMEMBER THE DISCOUNTING MECHANISM FOR FUTURE VALUE AND GROWTH IS.. THE RISK FREE RATE (US 10 YEAR YIELD) if the risk free rate is falling like a rock.. what is that saying about risk in US assets vs the world? thats exactly why im beyond bullish
TShort
by The_dumpster_diver
Where we're headed...Sometimes it's good to zoom out for perspective, given all the craziness in the market and media. We've had a wild ride on top of cheap money since the global collapse in 2008. That ride was beginning to stall until Trump's election and the exuberance (rational or irrational) that followed based on pro-big business policy expectations. This all came to a screeching halt as soon as the trade war began escalating and monetary policy tightening moved into a higher gear. Now that the trade talks have failed (again), the economy is starting to see fundamental impacts as a result of tariffs and the tapering off of the tax cut stimulus. In addition, the so-called "full" employment we're in is not yielding higher inflation as expected (as tracked by the Fed), so markets are uncertain as to whether interest rates will be cut or continue to rise in the near future. In addition, although the unemployment rate is at historical lows, most Americans (and American corporations) are even more heavy in debt than pre-2008, and yet one disaster away from financial ruin. If a trade deal is struck or if talks resume (which looks increasingly unlikely given the demands of the Trump administration on Chinese economic/political fundamentals), the market may recover quickly from this latest downturn. But I still feel we've hit a pretty hard resistance around $26.8k. We've now seen a triple-top in the DJI, which could signal a major move downwards. Technical analysis aside, the Chinese government has signaled to the US that it is ready and willing to retaliate through its rare earth exports (of which it dominates global markets), currency devaluation, and/or US Treasury sell-off. These would be painful for both the US and China, so the likelihood is still somewhat remote but that changes every time tariffs are imposed or increased. I'm sitting on cash from this point when it comes to equities. I'm also hedging through alternative assets (like cryptocurrency and potentially gold). As Led Zeppelin once sang; "If it keeps on rainin' levee's gonna break...." HecknDoggo
DJ:DJIShort
by HecknDoggo
Understanding Bitcoin Trend. Past, present and future.Hoping to keep this fairly simple. Firstly, I'm posting this as a direct response to poster MrRenev's OP in which he mentioned cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, ICOs etc should be illegal. It is obvious in his post that he's trying to create FUD pretty desperately, because he mentions things like 'crypto trading is not halal/kosher' etc. among many other things. The post is excruciatingly long, and I'm sure many over here have read it, hopefully with an open mind, but the bashing he received is pretty well deserved, not only because of his super obvious social manipulation tactics, but also because his comments and rebuttals are beyond offensive (like he offered to buy me out in the future to wipe him after he takes a dump and keep me as a servant or something along those lines). Look, you can write your opinion, you can do your TA, some people do it for fun, some people do it to enhance their own ability (the more you teach, the better YOU become), and some people do it because they want themselves as well as others to succeed. You have a very small percentage of people who are desperate like MrRenev. Maybe they don't have an educational background in finance, economics, commerce, etc. Maybe they started trading after watching some videos on Youtube, and picked up some very good knowledge, however became overconfident (or thought they are smarter than they actually are) and lost a lot of money. I myself have made money, I've lost money. However anything I've lost, I've taken full responsibility for it. Yes market manipulations exist. Yes there are things beyond our control. But our decisions are ours, if we leveraged 100x and lost, we should take full responsibility of it. There's responsible, calculated trading, and there's trading that's basically gambling. So if you gamble and lose, don't try to use social manipulation to get back what you lost. That's just sleazy. Anyways, since MrRenev commented would you trust established banks, organizations, monetary systems in place or (according to him) new, up and coming things like Bitcoin or Cryptocurrency, I'd like to make the same kind of COUNTER-APPEAL. Would you trust a no-name, no-face, disrespectful troll like MrRenev, who has no educational/career background disclosed or verified, or someone who actually has a degree in Economics from a renowned university when it comes to anything related to Economics? Okay intro out, now back to the analysis of Bitcoin. I'm using Coinbase as a base, but you can use the same concept overall. A. Trends and Cycles: Most of us are aware of economic cycles. So the same is the case with BTC. If you look at the graph above you'll notice that BTC technically went through accumulation/expansion period between 2015 and 2017. I know some of you might disagree and point out bull/bear markets during these periods, and you are correct if you want to break down everything in shorter periods. I'm looking at the bigger picture however, so the smaller bull/bear market periods do fit into the grander scheme of things. Here are my reasons: 1. Historic Indicators: I'm using RSI, MFI, ChandeMO in conjunction with the Weekly Candles. What do we see here? Take a look at between May 2015 and Dec 2017. Around May 2015, RSI levels started @ <38 and didn't peak 80+ levels until Jun 2016. During this time, the average RSI (just approximating it eye-balling at the RSI graph) was around 45 I would say. This lasted for 1 year. Now starting in June 2016 until Dec 2017, RSI levels maintained an average level of around 70, and bounced off lows of approximately 55 a few times. Peaked 80 or above levels about 12 times during this period. And that's just RSI. MFI levels maintained around 60 during the first phase and around 78 during the second (uptrend) phase. Overall around 70 I think. Chande Momentum Oscillator is such a good tool to understand market momentum but not always used but it is one of the most reliable. What does ChandeMO show? CONSISTENTLY above the ZERO line, with a couple outliers where momentum shifted to below zero (bearish). Common things like MACD and Awesome Oscillator paints a simpler but similar picture. Now let's switch to post Dec 2017 until Dec 2018. What do we see? RSI plummets, from the peak of 90 all the way down to 29 levels. During this period, RSI maintained a DECLINING average of 50, however keep in mind, this was a DECLINING AVERAGE, so bearish trend is definitely confirmed. What about MFI? All the "smart money" coming in? Averaged around a paltry 40. Most of all, Chande MO, shows us just how deep the bear market was. Went below the ZERO line, and basically maintained a -40 trendline during this entire period. Awesome Oscillator however tells us that bearish divergence is decreasing. That's because the time it is taking to get back to the zero line and make a hill over the zero line is decreasing as you can see. In fact for the first time since April 2018, AO has painted bars over the zero line on the weekly candles (the past couple weeks). MACD is looking good as well. We've broken out of these negative zones since turn of the year. RSI has risen from that low all the way to 71 currently, and you see a gradual increase. MFI paints the same picture, with more and more money coming in, and MFI levels increasing from around 20 to 90+ currently. ChandeMO has moved over the zero line since Jan 2019 and maintaining. There will be pullbacks, and we would hope for more of the same as was in the past because that is a sign of a healthy (relative) market. Ideally we would like RSI, MFI to maintain between 50 and 60 levels over the next year or so, and have a few bursts towards the top a few times. We would want ChandeMO to maintain a trendline over zero consistently. 2. The Future: So what does this tell us for the future. If Fundamentals remain constant or get positive boosts, then this accumulation/uptrend will continue. Just take a look at how many days it took for the Accumulation/Uptrend phase to materialize historically between May 2015 and Dec 2017... 900+ days. Compared to that, the bear trend (assuming it is over, I'll address the assumption in the next few lines) lasted a measly 364 days. And that IS A GOOD THING! Why? That tells us there are investors, people, who are interested in BTC. BTC isn't dying off, and neither are legitimate cryptocurrencies with legit uses. Otherwise it would've continued the fall, momentum wouldn't have changed, and you'd have seen lower highs. That isn't what we're seeing. So everything is looking good, and that's really great news for continued interest in BTC, Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain tech, etc. As long as fundamentals hold, there's a bright future for electronic currency/credit. Look we don't know what tomorrow will bring for sure. As I'm typing this I might just drop dead. The world might spontaneously blow up into a nuclear warzone. Anything can happen, positive or negative. At the end of the day, we have our biases and our own interests. Ofcourse I'm invested in BTC and Cryptocurrencies. I left my job so I can do this and be a free man and live my life and not work a 9-5 job for the next 30-40 years. BUT I'm not blind and I'm not stupid. I wouldn't get into this if I didn't understand the historic trends. I wouldn't get into this if I didn't have a solid background in Economics and Finances. And the risks I am taking, are calculated. I've made mistakes and lost (noob mistakes like buying FET.AI during the first hour of being launched, and I've not made that mistake again). And that's how you can make it here. If you make a mistake, take a good hard look at yourself and ask some very important questions. Did you lose because you lack the technical know-how or was it because of lack of experience? Are you an avid reader who will spend hours reading related news/posts every single day? Do you learn from your mistakes or do you always go by gut-feelings? Do you want to risk losing 200% of your investment (when you gamble to earn the same within a short period of time) or do you want to take small profits like 2%, 5%, 10% on a daily basis and understand exponential growth? Don't let others instill fear in you and don't let others exploit you by creating false sense of hope. Find the balance, read, read, read. Knowledge is power. Keep a level head, understand markets and global economies and whenever you take risks, take calculated risks so you can recover. Be a good human being, help yourself and others. Don't be like MrRenev. Good luck to everyone and I hope the future is bright for all of us (even MrRenev).
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by rhasan1987
2
Psych Hack #0007 - decision-making - it's what we do. Everybody - I mean everybody - who is actively trading has to make decisions. Entry points, exit points, trailing stops, stop-losses and so on - they all involve decisions. But what affects the integrity of our decision-making ? Some say we don't need to make decisions, once we follow a mechanical trading plan. I disagree 100%. If everybody could follow a mechanical trading plan and be millionaires it would have happened already - it ain't happening! End of. I say that our decisions are made in our heads - our brains, our minds. I say that I (we) need to know about the pitfalls in decision-making - pitfalls that may affect our minds. I'm sharing some things I've learned with others. These may not be of relevance to everybody. However, as the hard evidence shows that between 75 and 90% of all traders lose money consistently, I think it should be of relevance to a majority. Declaration : None of this is advice - even if so construed. Opinions on the two charts shown are not be relied upon. Your losses are entirely your own.
Education
by Captain_Walker
EURUSD shortLooking at potential sell towards key levels marked out by green horizontal lines. due to economic news this trade can have a major impulse which may allow this set up to come into fruition faster than expected. this is a trade i will be watching closely over the next trading week and be hoping to see the price break down, retest and then create an entry zone for me to execute. lets see how the week ahead is going to look... Lets make sure we secure the bag this week because Everyday is Money Day! Instagram : Vellly Business instagram : Learnitempire Youtube Channel : Learnitempire
by LitCap-Vell
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together. The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north. Mueller's hit list so far has been : 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO (Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.) Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors. Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well. We have other variables to consider : 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more. Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
BTC & personal saving rate, macro signal for final capitulationFinal capitulation occurred on 12 JAN 2015, during a time in which the personal saving rate made a multi-year high, peaking on 30 JAN 2015. This could help us identify a max point of financial opportunity in overall market conditions and investor psychology. Q4 2018 ended the year with the highest personal saving rate of 2018. Q1 and Q2 readings in 2019 could be instrumental in confirming if a final capitulation has indeed occurred. For added analysis, household debt service payments as a percent of disposable income has been plotted for additional confirmation of consumer strength/risk appetite.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoAlpha0
Without any real support, BTCUSD is poised for a breakdown.I have to state that I believe BTCUSD is poised for a price breakdown towards the $1300~1500 price level unless something changed in the Crypto landscape here soon. I hear pundits continue to talk about "the technology behind" the crypto market. Yet, even with all this technology, the DEMAND side of this economic experiment has continued to falter. The HYPE cycle that drove prices above $18k about a year ago was the peak demand cycle. Anything that follows will have to be an environmental based shift in support/demand. The hype cycle is based on nothing more than HYPE. The perfect example is Beanie Babies. At the peak of the HYPE cycle, everyone though these things were the coolest little stores of value. A little beanie baby could be worth $400 or more. Yet, the reality of it was that this was a "hyped valuation" that was never real. I believe this is the case for BTCUSD. I believe the price is currently exploring "true valuation" based on the factors of the Crypto environment - without the hype. It is starting to look like Cryptos, BTCUSD in particular, may not find real value until is reaches the sub $500 range (possibly lower). If you are long and hoping for a spike at this point, I urge you to consider another investment.. possibly GOLD.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
4
US Equities Go Ballistic As Foreign Markets Collapse?Pay attention to the bigger picture, folks. The past suggests the future. Post 1973, the gold standard ended and a boost in equity valuations followed. After 1985, a similar boost setup after Reagan initiated a technology boom. The contractions in the market in 2000 and 2009 were related to growth constraints and excesses related to out of control lending/credit. The $25+ Trillion that was injected into the global markets after 2010 is just now starting to actually take root. Notice how price has continued to hyper inflate through each of these economic modes. post 1973 - we see an increase in the slope of the general markets. post 1985 - we see a further increase in this slope. post 2010 - we see a breakout increase in the slope that has just begun. Don't let the "doom-sayers" confuse you. The US Dollar may become the central global currency if foreign markets/currencies continue to devalue. Capital will shift away from failing markets and towards more mature markets. After the Jan 1 new year, capital is seeking investment into economies that will provide a safe and equitable return. My opinion is we have just experienced a "revaluation" of the US markets that aligns with my Fibonacci Arcs. I believe we are about to enter a phase where global markets begin a collapse phase (Asia, China, Europe, Russia) while the US, Canada and UK enter a renewed upside momentum move. Pay attention to the fringe economies that are starting to implode. Venezuela, Italy, Spain, Australia, areas of Asia and much of South America/Africa are dealing with economic and political turmoil as a result of "perceptions of inequality/lack of opportunity". This battle to attempt to restore order will create a destructive event cycle for these economies. For example, as the battle for leadership in Venezuela continues, debts payments will likely fail. This will create human and capital crisis events that will ripple across the region and cause other issues in other nations. One of these events is not too difficult to address/handle. Multiple isolated events like this can become much more difficult to handle. Should Asia/China continue to contract, resulting in slower regional GDP growth and increased debt obligations, while the EU is dealing with Brexit and other localized issues, think of how this will play out over the next 7 to 10 years for more stable/mature economies. Will the US dollar become the single greatest global currency? Will the mature economies of the world (US, Canada, UK, Japan) again regain their strengths as the global leaders they really are. Chasing these emerging markets in the hopes that these nations will generate some return may be a very risky plan for those without experience. And what about Gold and Silver? Are you aware that you have less than 90 days to plan for and prepare for a massive move in the precious metals? Oh, you asked about Bitcoin?? Yeah, wait for the bottom. Until these global market issues play out, Cryptos are speculative plays - nothing else. Pay attention to my work and my research. Visit www.ment.com or www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about what I do and how I can help you.
DJ:DJILong
by BradMatheny
7
Ethereum: Technical Analysis. Bull or Bear, possible weeks aheadHi everyone, this is my first post here on TradingView. A little bit about me: I'm an Economics nerd (although, compared to some of the folks here, I feel like a total noob). I graduated from the University at Albany in 2011 with a major in Economics and minor in Computer Applications in Business. Currently I work as a Business Systems Analyst for one of the top hospitals in the Albany, NY region. I got into Cryptocurrencies beginning of last year when BTC shot through the roof, started my own mining and then trading. But unlike many who got in because of FOMO and then got out because of FUD, I've become a superfan of the crypto-currency asset class, primarily because I truly see the future of transactions and contracting through various blockchain technology and secondly (luckily) my knowledge and intuition in Economics has helped me navigate this CRAZY space with a little bit more calm and insight than some who may not be as into Economics and Economic theories as I am. Before I get into my first analysis I just want to clarify a few things: * This is not trading advice for others, just my analysis for myself that I wanted to share. * I hold (XRP, TRX, XLM) and trade (ETH, BTC, BCH) cryptocurrencies. * I trade conservatively. ALWAYS DISCARD EXTREME PEAKS AND TROUGHS. * Mathematics is the language of the universe, and it is the same in anything that can form a trend. * Layman's terms are the best. As long as you have common sense and intuition in numbers, it's all a game of averages. * Knowledge is power. Especially in the Crypto world. Game of averages only get affected by ** major news/breakthroughs/breakdowns ** Alright so looking at the following chart, what do we see? During the gut-punch that was November 2018, Ethereum like most major CCs, crumbled. Between Nov 12th and 14th, the price plummeted from ~$210 to ~$165, briefly trying to form a support to bounce from, which failed. Between Nov 18th and 20th, another drop happened to ~$128, which basically continued until finding the bottom around December 7th @ $83.00 and a double bottom on December 15th. This allowed us to draw some parallel lines which would indicate, on average, what channels the prices should be moving. As we've already established, $128 failed to provide support on Nov 18th to bounce back from, and we've had solid support from ~$83 onwards. We can see from the following graph, that upward movement following the double bottom has been consistent over a fairly long period of time (30+ days now). The issue that traders such as myself are (were?) facing is basically finding solid support above the $83 zone. Now if you follow the chart above, again, you'll see that following bounce from $83 between Dec 10th - 17th, prices moved up pretty nicely until Dec 24th. By nicely, I mean steady, sustainable upward movements. The sudden sharp upward movement of Dec 24th was always going to be heavily corrected in this bear market, and that is what happened, although the Bulls (myself included) tried to sustain the $150 support levels until Jan 9th when another massive sell bear-attack happened which broke the $130 support line, and we were able to find some solid support between ~$113 and ~120. What does all this mean? We've been moving in a narrow channel between $114 and $120 since January 13th. We've seen some major pumps and some even more massive dumps which show strong resistance above $120, possibly up to $130. Mathematically, if you look at these parallel lines, you can see clearly, how the prices are moving "ON AVERAGE" around those lines. Today is Sunday, January 20th. Prices for Ether are around $117 after another huge drop this morning, BUT 1 HR RSI indicators show that Ethereum remains in undersold condition and MACD shows that volume is pretty low, so there's room for improvement. The important thing to remember is if you look at the 3 possible patterns I've drawn out, you can clearly see (in layman's perspective) what needs to happen. * Scenario 1 Blue line: Best case scenario if price breaks $120, $130 and then hovers between $130-$134 (lean bull-ish). Means MAJOR solid support has formed from $116. * Scenario 2 Green line: Best case scenario if price breaks $125, $135, then holds between $135 - $140 (DEF lean bull-ish). Means MAJOR solid support formed from $120. * Scenario 3 Red line: Worst case scenario most of us wouldn't want to see. Price barely breaks $120, and then hovers between $120-$124. If this happens, another lower parallel line will need to be drawn as an average of the lower prices. Means MINOR support has formed around $114 and is susceptible to the Bear. So if we see continued lower highs followed by CONSISTENTLY HIGHER lows or HIGHER HIGHS, that's a good sign. Scenario 1 is the middle of the line scenario, without extreme peaks and troughs. Scenario 2 confirms bear market is slowly retreating FOR SURE. Scenario 3: bear is still not hibernating/we're just not sure. By end of January/early Feb, if Ether prices are not "ON AVERAGE" over $132, I'd be concerned, but anything over $130 CONSISTENTLY is a good sign. If however, prices are STAGNATING around $116-$120, I'd be concerned. So trade carefully, if you have your hard earned money invested here or do day trade, don't be too greedy. Try to take profits between narrow channels the best you can. My analysis basically takes into account the average, middle of the lines movement, to give a picture on where the average position should be following bounces in parallel channels. There might be extreme highs or extreme lows but as long there's not a pattern forming, you can't take the extreme highs or lows as indicators of bull or bear. Finally, definitely don't pay attention to analysis that say BTC will drop to $200 or similar nonsense. I've seen some analysis by some very scrupulous posters, and I want to make the community aware that these are just really messed up people who just want to create FUD among even a few of our community members, and profit off their naivety. CCs are the future of trade and commerce. Invest into meaningful projects, trade some, HODL some, and read read read!!! Be smart and don't be super greedy. Thanks for reading. Please like my post if you find it interesting! :)
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by rhasan1987
4
EURGBP Bear FightWith the usual news coming from Europe of Brexit and the meetings between the Italian Government and Brussels, we believe the EURGBP may bounce in between two levels until the Italian budget is sorted with Brussels or Brexit is done in March, with a large amount of Sellers at the 0.90900 area and many Buyers at around the 0.89200 area it may mean a major political/economic event to break the cycle, if the GBP strengthens and price breaks the Bulls, we beilieve price could drop to the 0.845 area
by HiltonBritCapital
Why I Don't Follow TA Anymore and Why Bitcoin Isn't That SpecialOnce again, the chart should be self-explanatory, but I thought maybe some users would be too young to be familiar with some concepts, or simply uninformed. Being concrete 0.00% , the reference rate given set by the Fed is an inflation target. Inflation is a controversial topic, but both sides have points in favour. Inflation is happening, and the logic for it is to encourage spending. Likewise, when a reserve currency rises, the competing assets, prominently stocks, tend to slow down. The opposite is also true: if the interest rates are high enough, during a period where economic stimulus is required, central banks can turn dovish and make people want to get rid of their currency, making them spend and avoiding stagnation. In this chart I marked the 5 financial crisis that are relevant to Bitcoin's study. The dotcom bubble rose while regulations were lax and a crypto-like craze not only reached nerds, but anyone who had a bank account. Without any actual knowledge of investment, the stock market inevitable bubbled out of its mind. You can see that the dollar was rising leading up to the dotcom crash. This happens because EM move their funds into dollars, since Wall Street is denominated in USD exclusively. After 8 years, a special kind of derivative asset, the CDO, swamped the market and undermined the credit system. In simple words, the world was full on ghost money and it only took the first bank to file bankruptcy to trigger a chain of unpayable debt. This idea of ghost money was an inspiration to create Bitcoin: money that can absolutely be anything but ghost. After the 2008 bubble was under control, Bitcoin -1.06% found its way into the public. Even if it wasn't as accessible, due to regulations put in place after 00 and 08, as well as the intrinsic difficulty of joining the market, the rise wasn't shy. With confidence of having found the bottom, people bought the dip. Then came 2011, when some after-effects of 08 hit France's credit ratings, subsequently spreading to the rest of Europe and hitting the nerve of the US as well. The slump didn't last long, but it can't be ignored. Moving forward we find the 4th financial crisis: the rise and fall of emerging markets and oil 0.48% price crash. Still an after-effect of 08, these two events are intertwined. After the global economy picked up pace again post-08, countries like Russia and China experienced a "catch-up" rally. Anyone in the industrial and engineering sectors will quickly understand why oil 0.48% prices would be so relevant in this context. However, like any explosive (un intended) run, some pullback happens after the economy overshoots its actual capacity. It was during the start of 2014 that the demand for oil 0.48% pulled back significantly. Unlike other commodities , oil 0.48% has its own economic category, since it basically fuels the world. The 2014 fall was cemented when Russia invaded the Ukrainian border, bringing international sanctions that strongly affected its GDP. All of these things together incited an exit from EM currencies and stocks into the dollar. During this period, the Fed rose interest rates to keep a balance between the dollar and the stock-market-turned-safe-haven. Near the end of 2015 things finally settled down, and the "Golden Bull" kept running up. Most of you will be familiar with the 5th financial crisis of 2018, lead by the Turkish lira. This was accompanied by further concerns raised by Argentina, Brazil, India, and South Africa. It was shortly before this began that Trump's administration opened the doors for a trade war. A trade war with China is sure to hit the stock market. It's obvious to anyone with eyes and has read "Made in China". Almost a year after the talks began, the dust has settled. The EM mentioned above haven't fully recovered, but the panic has gone down a lot, including the extreme talks of a war. That brings us to today. If the aforementioned economies continue their way, and Powell does take the global situation into account, we could see buyers relaxing on the dollar and letting investors move back into financial assets. My personal belief is that the overall situation has tranquilised, and buying stocks and crypto at this point would classify as buying the dip. Of course, I do not have a crystal ball, and for all I know Italy may lash out and trigger some panic across the eurozone. I'm not a hedge fund manager, and neither is anyone of you. None of your ideas or charts will move the market, and getting angry at other users for disagreeing will get you nowhere. Bitcoin -1.06% halvings are mostly insignificant. Hashrate wars are short term. Protocol exploits and exchange hacks impact the slope, but not the direction. Let me know if I incorrectly narrated some historical event, and I will gladly rectify.
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
6
$SPY $DXY The Chart All Bulls and Bears Should SeeToday's all-time intraday high on the S&P 500 reminded me of a correlation I had looked at in the past. I re-charted it just now and frankly, the implications are fairly profound. 1. Note that for most of the chart as the value of the U.S. Dollar Index drops, the market goes up. - What that means is this. The stock market prices went up, but the value of our currency dropped. So even if you were making money your gains would be more or less mitigated if not negated by the drop in buying power of the Dollar. 2. Note the vertical line I drew. It points to a month where the correlation broke, and both started to rise at the same time. - What happened in November 2008? The Fed's first QE program began. So, as they unwind more and more, something is going to have to give. Maybe a rate hike reduction. Maybe the dollar crashes as three of the main asset classes (equities, treasuries, precious metals) all melt-up at the same time into one last grand parade before a devastating crash. Or perhaps they introduce more Quantitative Easing. Note: I''m not saying this is going to happen anytime soon. Rather, I'm advocating one of my primary investing principles: ALWAYS HEDGE. Cheers, - dros Be sure to stay-tuned at my blog for more updates: androstrades.com
SP:SPX
by androsForm
LONG - AUD/USD Weekly Pinbar off Key AreaThe AUDUSD presents an increasingly bearish technical stance according to the 4 hours chart on the broader horizon, however we should expect bullish wave this week towards potentially trend line resistance at 0.75 range as Investors digest the report following Fridays NFP and the market equalises. I'm bearish overall on the AUD due to a stronger USD over 2018 with rate hikes still to come in Q3 and Q4 2018. On the weekly charts we are seeing good price action rejecting from last weeks test of 0.73 low’s printing a pinbar off the monthly key level at 0.74.
Long
by No95TradingCo
GBPUSD - Bearish channelA bearish channel has been confirmed, and the price has just bounced off the support level of this channel with a massive increase in momentum. I do believe that this currency would break out the top of the channel, this mainly depends on fundamentals. The fundamentals for the GBP are not looking very good due to Brexit and the massive chance the UK have got of leaving with a no deal. This could be very negative for the UK as a no deal Brexit was not very likely and businesses have not prepared themselves for a no deal Brexit. This could cause businesses to move out of London and into other EU member states to decrease the financial impacts this decision may cause. I would keep everyone updated on what is happening with this currency pair over the coming 9months leading to Brexit.
by JohnnyPurtoy98