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Economics

EURUSD resume downward move?Happy Chinese New Year & US President’s Day Back from a short CNY break, you will notice the narrow range which the market is trading in for today, primarily due to the Chinese and US market being closed today. Since my last analysis, we saw the USD strengthen against the major currency pairs, as the S&P 500 shows signs of reversing its recent gains. Due to a lack of major economic drivers, I’ll not be anticipating any major moves today. Looking for short term trend following trades, with an eye on upcoming events over the next couple of days. I’m also planning potential big moves for the EURUSD and GBPUSD, as despite weaker economic performance, they overextend their upward moves, possibly due to short term technical plays. All of which, will still require continual USD strength, either from a move in the S&P500 or as the stronger inflation data from last week reinforces the case for more consistent/aggressive FOMC rate decisions.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
S&P 500 => The Big Short...?! Hi guys, Here we are looking at the S&P 500. on a monthly candlestick chart.. As we all know, markets can't keep going up forever. Not even stock markets... for the past 8-9 years (after the crash of '08) we made a gain of more then 300% and in the last year of it's bull run it made a real "blow-off top"! everyone who follow the news a bit knows that the price of the S&P500 fell more then 300$ from it's top in just 2 weeks... Now... You can listen to what the news has to say (and they denied it's a crash or gonna be a crash) and just follow there thought on a further pricerise ("it's just a small correction"). OR: you can look into it for yourself and find that almost all indicators are telling us there is more (bad) news coming... - Is this bull trend sustainable? - (for those who hold shares in the S&P500) Are there other places I could put my money in? (gold, silver, cryptocurrencies,..) - in case all stock crash.. how can I be smart and profit? And what about the folowing consequences? An(other) economic disaster? - ... WELL: We think going short on this one is a very smart and profitable way of getting yourself prepared for it. on Youtube There is a guy named Mike maloney who can show you the very interesting insiders on wether it's going to crash... I'll give you guys the link so you can watch it as well! TRADE: I entered the trade myself on monday the 5th of Februari. I make this trading idea and oppertunity for you guys so you could see for yourself what the potential is.. HINT: I also made an extra sell order with LTC which I bought on monday with new entered money (not from my LTC on hold) at a price around $120/LTC, with a maximum loss of 10 LTC (my stop loss = $1200). If you think LTC has more upward potential, this is a very nice trade! But it for sure has extra risk because you never know it might fall to Zero (be carefull). Thanks, if you liked this post please hit that like button and follow our page! Profitable regards, Perspect. Mike Maloney on Youtube: www.youtube.com
SP:SPXShort
by Perspect
3
RBA DecisionI’ll still be cautious towards trading on sustained USD strength, especially seeing today’s price retracement. Take note of AUD retail and rate decision tomorrow. The AUDUSD came off the 0.8110 high, bouncing off 0.7900. While I do not expect any rate change, it’ll be important to pay attention to the RBA’s rate statement, and on their expectation and actions to deal with the appreciating AUD. This could give us a good hint on future movements of the AUDUSD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
Today, is GDP day.As we look at the GBP q/q GDP, with an expectation for performance to hold the same (at 0.4%). This may represent a trend following buying opportunity for the GBPUSD, especially if the GBPUSD holds above 1.42. In the evening, we have US q/q GDP, expecting a data slightly worse than previous. This will be a data release I’ll be avoiding, due to 3 reasons, A Friday evening, timing of the release, and with WEF in Davos happening over the weekend. While Davos is unlikely to have policy implications, political jawboning could increase volatility in the currency pairs.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Dovish Rate Hike from the BoC?The economic data highlight for today/tonight will be the BoC rate decision. Has the Canadian economy and sentiment improved enough to warrant an interest rate increase by the BoC? While an earlier rate increase is highly anticipated (brought forward from April), this would also mean that the BoC is unlikely to further increase rates in the medium term. This could be likely to have a negative impact on the USDCAD, driving prices off the 1.2410 support level. It would be crucial to read the statement accompanying the decision.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
Today we have GBP CPI y/y data to be releasedToday we have GBP CPI y/y data to be released. Current concern is the pace of CPI growth in the UK economy, as expectation for CPI is at 3%, which is above the 1-3% range. In the usual circumstance, as inflation increases (especially beyond the target range), the tendency is for the Central Bank to increase interest rates. However, I do not think that the BoE will be keen to increase rates, with the Brexit in the horizon. Given eventual USD strength, the GBP is poised for a drop, if it fails to break above the 1.3800 level.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Big countrend move if EUR/USD breaks 1.20NFP on Friday (Actual 148k against forecasted 190k), with hourly earnings as forecasted at 0.3%. This weaker than expected economic data resulted in a weaker USD, with USDCAD dropping 140pips within the hour. However, this employment report also indicates steady improvement in the labour market, with no signs of overheating. Therefore, we can still expect the FED to maintain course for 3 rate hikes in 2018, signaling gradual USD strength.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
2
Gold Downtrend Due To Economic EventsEveryone is aware that Gold is a 'save haven' for forex traders when economic results are bearish for a certain asset. Meaning, when some economies are performing well, Gold will reciprocate and also become bearish themselves. This can be seen through the past two daily candle sticks after Germany, one of the top 7 economies, showed positive unemployment. -12K people were foretasted to be unemployed, although it turned out to be -29K people unemployed. The ramification of these results mean that there is an even more employment surplus than there was before. This will surely appreciate the value of the EUR. As well as this positive result for the EUR, the USD has shown some bullish sentiment as well, this is due to the ISM response results. The ISM is ultimately the percentage of supply executives for industrial companies give out their numbers on exports and imports. It was foretasted by analysts that 58.1% of supply executives will give out their trade numbers, although it was actually 59.7%, this is a bullish sentiment for the USD as more than expected supply executives are confident in their trade numbers. To round up this analysis, Gold will show a short term downtrend due to Germany's appealing unemployment changes and USA's ISM responses.
TVC:GOLDShort
by forexwithfred