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Economics

Gold - October Outlook 2017U.S Federal Reserve hinting another possible interest rate hike in December has changed our time target for Gold. Earlier we were expecting the yellow metal to halt the uptrend in last week of September, instead, we are now looking for that High to come in late by almost two weeks. The current drop should terminate here and Gold should resume the uptrend. Going back to the Gold chart, the price hit 1357.50, just $2.50 shy of our lower-end target of $1360. We still have the same target level of $1360 to $1380.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1307339
1
ICO MANIA PHASE OVER —— ENTER PHASE II, BUY ETHEREUM !ETHUSD is bound for a bullish run. Seg-wit is nearly locked in and uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future is settled. Markets are ripe for a bull run as investor sentiment increases by the day. There was a major selloff of Ethereum in the wake of ICO madness, leaving new ETH investors disappointed and oversold. August marks the turn of a new era for crypto— Ethereum is still the best protocol for dApp development. Once truly decentralized applications begin to emerge, ETH will be the primary platform they are created on. Don't wait for the wave of end-user applications to arrive, take advantage of the undervalued ETH price now.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by GucciBuddha
1
Time to flush out some soft cash!!Unhedged capital flows into the EZ have been attributed to the following factors: - Perception that EZ political risks have subsided, returning market focus back to economic fundamentals - Improving economic fundamental picture and upside surprises in eco indicators have prompted significant asset allocation shift to European equities and thus, expectations of a rapid ECB policy normalisation Net long positioning has reached a fresh multi-year high, exceeding the 2013 high to reach levels last seen in 2011. There is increasing risk of weakness in the EUR/USD cross if the recent normalisation hysteria fades (which is a significant risk given Draghi’s highly accommodative stance and recent inflation upticks being largely attributed to higher energy prices). Equity flows show that US investors who have begun to purchase European equities have been doing so mainly on a FX unhedged basis, thus there is a large potential for hedging and EUR long liquidation in the event that sentiment cools. It is also worth considering the attractiveness of hedging recent substantial equity price gains for US participants (esp. French equity investors) as a positive carry is obtainable. It is fallacy that PIIGS risks have dissipated as some market participants believe. Spain’s 5yr CDS increased by 22% last week with the news that Banco Popular may not find a buyer and may have to be wound down; the bank is constantly reviewing how to bolster liquidity drained by deposit removals and a deterioration of its credit. $BMPS is not out of the poo yet, we must remember that previous bailouts by the Italian Treasury were unsuccessful; all eyes on the restructuring plan. Silence and reassurance are key assets for insolvent banks, remember this!! Looking at the upcoming ECB meeting, the risk of a more hawkish policy surprise is limited given inflation pressures remain subdued (EU yield curve looks like it’s ready to flatten quickly; expecting EU CESI to follow the US’s – there is usually an 8 week lag to the US). In terms of targets, I am looking at 1.10 for t/p 1 and 1.075x (gap there which needs filling. Statistically, there is a ~70%+ chance that the gap fills before 1.13 is reached; take that as you will!) for t/p 2.
Short
by jamiegleave
8
Bonds Heading Lower - TLTThe stock market rally isn't over & bonds may not get bid for a while. Short-term the stock market may see a Wave 4 corrective pullback but my count still shows a Wave 5 leg in the future. Based on my outlook on the dollar strengthening and the stock market continuing to rally I am short bonds. I am slightly late to the Wave 5, so our risk will be a slightly higher than typical. Technicals I will be shorting TLT looking for the competition Wave 5. Bonds have completed the Wave 4 correction wave and should be continuing lower. Fundamentals The dollar is strong & will continue to strengthen as the Fed hikes rates. Bonds will weaken. Comment your thoughts and we will discuss.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by WallStTrader
Time to short Emerging Markets - EEMLonger term trade here with fundamentals and technicals aligning. Technicals I will be shorting EEM as it has completed 5 waves inside of a long-term downside Elliot wave. We will be looking to short EEM as it completes a long-term wave 5. Fundamentals The US Economy is strong. The Fed will more than likely hike rates in March or soon after. The rate hike with strengthen our dollar, therefore weakening other countries currency. Trade with the US will also be "more expensive" for Emerging Markets. We feel EEM will be hurt by the current US Economy. Post your thoughts and comments below.
AMEX:EEMShort
by WallStTrader
2
Where there's no value, price shouldn't be going higherWe keep seeing activity on this kind of stock. Very unfortunate for Petrobras being involved on this massive corruption scandal created by the last administration, in fact, I liked to call it as I've coined before, "One of the biggest heist of all times". Sometimes we caught myself thinking about this. Who knew everything started far back there with some bribes for selling cardboard shipping boxes for the domestic post service. This is a clear example to remind us all of things that doesn't make sense in finance and in the Financial Market as a whole. No expert analysis could help either nor different approaches to interpret such moves that occusionally happen. Petrobras is clearly a dying with a very old and unsustainable model which would be feasible only in case the barrel jumped to above $150 again and markup it's believed to be much higher than that. But as one said once, "where's hope there's always a chance". I really wish good prosperous and better times Co. but that is not up to me. Good Luck for all the holders out there.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR4
by Rickvespa
SHORT EURUSD: ECB MEMBER NOWOTNY + DOWNSIDE ECONOMIC REVISIONSECB nowotny reiterated senior member official sentiments regarding the situation with Italian banks unsurprisingly saying people "Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks". He also hawkish said that the Brexit impact forecasted on the EUROZONE economy would be less than the IMF forecasts. Perhaps the most important sentiment though was that regarding the ECB's APP which is due to end in March 2017 saying "Future path of QE decision to be made in Q4" and "Still open to whether to phase QE purchases out or not" - providing little inferences whether the ECB expects to extend or end their APP. However, one would think, unless the underlying inflation trend was to pick up, certainly there would be an extension/ phase out of QE. A source from social media reported on the matter with more conviction and to the hawkish side saying "Reports Said To See No Current Urgency For QE Action In September". Nowotny playing his cards close to his chest regarding the future ECB QE path is unsurprising, however, the Social Media Report claims are a little more worrying given they somewhat write off fresh QE action for the ECB's september meeting - something which many banks/ consensus thought would be the case, given the persistently low Euro inflation and hints from ECB minutes/ Draghi that maturity extension would be likely at the September meeting. However, the authenticity/ reliability of the reports has to be considered given the source is social media. On a more certain note the ECB Polled forecasters posted dovish/ EUR bearish economic outlook figures for EUR, downgrading GDP and inflation readings for 2017 and 18, with 2016 staying unchanged . Trading strategy: 1. This personally doesnt change my material medium-term short EUR$ 1.1100 trade as the macro headwinds/ future headwinds described in previous posts still go unpriced. Though the short view is weakened slightly IF the above "no QE extension" is true since some of the future EUR$ downside was based on further ECB easing. Though all of which is just speculation, and without any conviction from officials, waiting for the September decision itself seems the smartest thing to do continuing short - especially as forecasted GDP/ Inflation figures have been reduced which is bearish for the EUR and as the USD leg of the trade continues to strengthen as rate hike expectations continue to increase in this risk-on market with Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trading at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nove and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the risk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen until the end of the day. ECB Member Nowotny Comments: -ECB's Member Nowotny: "In principle decision from 2nd June not to employ new monetary tools remains true, new uncertainties have emerged." -ECB's Member Nowotny: Still open on whether QE will be phased out gradually or not -ECB's Member Nowotny: Future path Decision on QE to be made in Q4 -ECB's Member Nowotny: EZ 2017 Inflation Seen Over 1%, Sees No Acute Danger Of Deflation -ECB's Nowotny: BREXIT Effect on Eurozone GDP expected to be less than IMF forecast -ECB's Nowotny: Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks ECB Polled Forecasters: -ECB: Polled Forecasters See Eurozone 2016 HICP at 0.3%, Matching Previous Quarter -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 HICP at 1.2%, vs 1.3% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 HICP at 1.5% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2016 GDP Growth at 1.5%, Matching Previous Qtr -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 GDP Growth at 1.4% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 GDP Growth at 1.6% vs 1.7% Seen in 2Q -ECB: 55% Of Respondents Included Estimate of UK Referendum Impact in Forecasts *See attached posts for more EUR$ downside fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
Week Ahead – Return of Greek saga and BOE Super ThursdayEquities across the globe were on the back foot last week as central banks are not longer looking as dovish as they did a couple of months ago. Friday’s rally in DJIA ensured the index suffered only moderate weakness last week. UK’s mining heavy FTSE fell to its 100-SMA line before staging a minor rebound on Friday. In currency markets, dollar regained poise against most majors. Commodity currencies were major losers after a surprise rate cut by RBA and the downward revision in the bank's inflation projections. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report showed a sharp slowdown in the pace of job additions. That did trigger a knee jerk drop in the USD. However, as noted by us, the fate of the USD was more dependent on wage price inflation, which in annualized terms, did show a bigger spike. No wonder then, the dollar quickly recovered losses and scored gains against most major currencies. In commodities space, Gold retreated from $1300-1303 levels, but managed to restrict losses around $1275 levels. Meanwhile, oil prices were largely consolidated. June Fed a “live event” – Fed policymakers Fed policymakers were out on the wires last week stating that a rate hike in June is an “option”. Once again, markets aren’t taking it seriously and rightfully so since there are too many issues that could destabilize markets. Brexit referendum is scheduled on June 23 and the Greek saga is making a comeback as well. Plus, US wage price inflation is yet to show sign of sustained strength. The contradictory views held by markets and the Fed officials regarding the June rate hike may not result in dollar sell-off as dollar’s counterparts aren’t doing any good. UK’s PMI figures released over the last week showed a possibility of sharp slowdown in GDP in April. Plus, Brexit fears may come into play as well. Meanwhile, there is very little the BOJ can do now, thus a sustained rally in USD/JPY could be seen only if the 10-yr treasury yield in the US moves above 2% along with a rise in 2-yr yield as well. Greek saga Triquel Also note, that Greek saga could flare up as well. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has defended controversial new pension and tax reforms approved by parliament and said the Eurozone finance ministers meeting to be held today would be "a very important day" as debt relief for Greece is on the agenda. The group is expected to discuss new debt relief measures, with a view to avoiding the prospect of a default in July, when the nation is due to make huge repayments to the IMF and the ECB. Greek bond yield curve stays inverted and a sharp spike in yields could trigger a drop in Euro. During last bouts of Greek crisis, Euro drop was led by rise in Greek and periphery yields along with drop in German bund yields. Greek crisis could further kill Fed rate hike bets, but not the dollar as treasuries are a safe haven asset and also offer relatively higher yield than its other global counterparts. BOE ‘Super Thursday’ Bank of England (BOE) quarterly inflation report along with rate decision and policy minutes are due for release this Thursday. There is little possibility of a major shift in the policy stance. We may see a dissenting vote in favor of cutting rates, which may lead to Sterling weakness. However, Carney and Co. are unlikely to do anything that could trigger volatility in the markets ahead of June 23rd Brexit referendum.
by TipTVFinance
EURJPY 15 Bearish BAT PATTERN @ 122.80Hi guys, I thought I would share a pattern I am most fond of, the BAT pattern . I admire this setup because it mainly follows the overall trend and takes into account major support and resistance levels. As a strong believer in economics and harmonics, I believe this pattern gives 2 things which most traders strive for: 1) Good risk-to-reward and 2) Good win percentage %. Back to the trade idea, it is a bearish BAT pattern @ 122.80 in which i would have a sell limit in place and stop loss will be placed above the X leg which we use as good resistance in this case. Targets will be at the 38.2% and 61.8% fibonacci levels. IF/WHEN first targets are met, half of the position would be closed for profit and stop loss for the second half of the position will be moved to break-even, ensuring a risk-free trade. Thank you for your support. Trade Numbers: Risk: 35 pips x 2 = 70 pips Reward #1: 43 pips. R:R = 1:1.2 Reward #2: 70 pips. R:R = 1:2 Plan your trade... Trade your plan.
Short
by Krunal.Patel
XAUUSD WEEKLY CHART - MAKE IT OR BREAK ITWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) With the history of miners leading the commodity in moves, I'm expecting gold to make a move higher (see GDX charts): - We again have the bull flag being made, with any bearish attempt to "fill the gap" back down to 1180 being stunted 1200 - Our 'medium' channel from 2013 has been broken, re-tested, and remained bullish - We are at out 23% fib retracement (same that GDX just broke through) from our big move down from our ATH in 2011 - We are also one move away from recent solid price action (black horizontal lines), which was similar in the GDX as well - If these are able to break tomorrow, 1300-1400 is our very short term goal - After 1415 you only have 1485, and 1568-1600 as price action areas, which is a very nice, large gap to be filled Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :) Happy Trading!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AwareBear
XAUUSD DAILY CHART - MAKE IT OR BREAK ITWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) - Just as the GDX, we have a beautiful parabola, followed by an attempt to go to 1180, which was rejected by the bulls - This creates the bull flag / pennant that was see now, which was just broken out of to the upside - By finishing this day (April 11th) above the 23% fib retracement, I believe we have invalidated any head and shoulders pattern, as the left shoulder failed to do this - This is vital, for if we drop lower from here, that is a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, which would launch us to 1180 no problem, so this is why it is a "make it or break it" time for gold ... - We are out of our 'middle tier' channel, and back into a smaller and much weaker channel - This leaves me with some concerns but the same thing applies as to the GDX; - If it can break and hold above this channel and price action of 1270, that's when we should see the confirmation of a bull market, short term at the very least Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :) Happy Trading!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AwareBear
GDX WEEKLY CHART -- MINERS BREAKOUT, CASH WONT BE KING FOR LONGWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) My target area Short Term is 25-28: - We have the 23% fib retracement from our move down from our All Time Highs in 2011. - Weekly 200 ma - Solid price action (horizontal black lines) - Broke out of our channel to the upside that start in June 2013 -- If tomorrow (April 12th) holds above this channel, that's when I shoot my final bullet - The top of our bigger channel is in this area Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :) Happy Trading!
AMEX:GDXLong
by AwareBear
Another unsustainable rally based on commoditiesFollowing the recent oil rally, the Russian equity index has also rallied about 30%. However, this - like the oil rally and the Petrobras rally I posted about - is unsustainable. See my post attached here for why the oil rally is unsustainable. Why is RTS unsustainable? Firstly, it is likely to follow oil's possible move down. Secondly, Russia is still in quite a severe recession. Thirdly, Russia's economy is forecast to contract 1.5% this year. As long as the outlook for oil looks poor (as it does in my opinion), then the Russian equity index shouldn't be making rallies of 30%. Technicals The market has hit a strong level of resistance, as indicated by the upper horizontal black line.
INDEX:RTSIShort
by olly_price
1
Upside potential for Rusell 2000 Index from Past PerformanceRecovery in U.S. show up slower than expecting, seeing from Jobless Claim report increased to 276,000 against analysis forecast median of 263,250 jobs which is a greater numbers than Feb 2016 report. However the incremental is still below 300,000 which is an acceptable rate. Counting from Jackson Hole Fed's meeting last week statement was given clear of timeline of interest rate increase in year 2017 which will be monitored every quarter and rate holding in Apr to June 2016 sending U.S. dollar index down towards end of statement. This resulting of sending stock market upwards DJIA approaching last height where it went before collapsing last round of trading. NASDAQ index has been booming upwards slope as well leaving where Biotech index laggard. The Russell 2000 Index follows the trend if you look at the graph presenting from year 2000 to year 2016 highest record, at the moment of trading today vs last height giving 16.38% upside for trading area but why Russell 2000 index would recovery better than DJIA or those big caps. It is because the small caps index has more volatility and potential of company growth better than big caps. The company are new to the market seeing high potential of expanding market share and it normally not reacting plunged from market sentiment.
ILong
by ausvin
USDNOK potential bearish cypher pattern Will be looking to enter a short position at 8.84658 if the cypher pattern holds up. Stop loss is based on previous structure as indicated by the red line. Take profit is based on Fibonacci levels. Unfortunately the risk/reward isn't the best I've ever seen, but I will still be looking to take this trade. Fundamentals Aren't any particularly exciting fundamentals to support this cypher pattern, although based on the current consolidation of crude oil (Norway's economy depends strongly on oil exports) as well as uncertainty in the US economy, an up and down move is definitely not unreasonable.
Short
by olly_price
Ah... China, and we've just begun - yellow line of despairWe won't be getting higher than the yellow line any time soon. With recent events around China's "real" numbers coming in (who knows what's real anymore?) and the issues around oil production (which are NEVER going away b/c in 15 years we won't even need oil anymore), the market is in a major, structure re-evaluation phase. Why? 1. Global unease in the old model of forever growth, which is unsustainable 2. QE x 17 or whatever and people realizing that money isn't actually worth anything (currency) 3. All the old people (baby boomers) cashing in their retirement accounts so they can buy that giant bus conversion and finally go visit their grand kids. 4. Marijuana. If you want to decrease employee productivity... give it to them.
AMEX:SPYShort
by trader_boulder