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Economics

Macroeconomics for Crypto.Why bitcoin does not go with the S&P?This is research is to figure out where and when to look for the bottom of bitcoin. More importantly when to get out of it if we have a bull run. This may be something new to you, but macroeconomics is crucial here. And this I will try to explain it. The main hypothesis is that the cryptocurrency market has become highly institutionalized, the guys from Wall Street came here. They don't know how to trade from the level, unfortunately, but they know how to do macro sentiment - and Bitcoin became part of their portfolios and now trades the same way as the stock market. Bitcoin has all but lost its independence when Wall Street the weekend trading volumes and volatility is very low almost nothing happens. In 2018 guys like Fidelity came into cryptocurrencies. In 2020 they invited their rich clients and it was a turning point, since then all major banks and funds have been sending their clients compilations with analytics on cryptocurrencies This is an example from UBS bank It's not what we're used to seeing in Tradinvgview or on Twitter, but it's nothing complicated My opinion is that, the connection between cryptocurrency and stock market will only increase, so I urge all traders and investors to pay attention to the way Wall Street analyses work. Their job is to constantly monitor the analysis of the two economic cycles: business cycle and stock market cycles This is a schematic representation, the cycles are unsynchronized. The stock market is a reflection and result of the expectations of traders as to what is happening or will happen in the business cycle Business cycle scheme Everything starts with a reduction in interest rates by the central banks or with an increase in government spending, loans and mortgages become cheaper, the housing sector grows first - houses are built, more resources and materials are spent, the economy comes to life. People buy homes, make repairs, buy appliances, furniture, buy cars, have children, pets. They multiply their consumption, buy a second TV in the living room, subscribe to netflix, go to barbershops and beauty salons - the manufacturing and service sectors grow, unemployment falls, household incomes and corporations grow, and prices rise with them. Consumption peaks - inflation becomes dangerous - the Central Bank raises interest rates - credit and mortgages become more expensive - the housing sector collapses followed by the manufacturing and service sectors, unemployment rises, household and corporate incomes fall, consumption slows, inflation slows down. Sometimes there is a recession, the central bank lowers interest rates - the cycle is closed 😀 This year, almost all central banks in developed emerging markets are raising interest rates. Fact - 50% of all macro analysis will come down to assessing the likelihood of interest rate increases or decreases. Obviously there is money, there is growth and vice versa there is no money, no growth. We're about here in the middle of the cycle, a global recession is likely ahead All this is necessary and important to understand in order to assess the prospects and dynamics of stock prices on the stock market. We are used to the fact that there are many companies whose shares are traded on the stock exchange, and the companies themselves are divided into sectors and industries for classification. The first to react to the expectation of economic recovery are the sectors of financial housing and transport and so on. The logic was described above - mortgage, Home, Car, Kids, TV, netflix subscription and barbershop, etc. Wall Street looks at the stock market a little differently, through factors, that is, properties of certain groups of stocks, for example: industry sectors are commonly divided into cyclical - these are goods services secondary necessities that are highly dependent on the business cycle and non-cyclical - that is, these are goods services primary necessities that are not so highly dependent on it. The first - will respond cyclical, the factors are hundreds, but I will tell you with the most important and understandable. Imagine we take all the stocks and sort them by properties, by volatility, by beta, by dividend yield, by business margins, by multiples and so on so by these factors the stocks are sorted into a whole group. The first factor I consider is the volatility factor aka beta imagine an index of unprofitable junk companies like Virgin Galactic and other meme stocks this will be the extreme manifestation of the beta factor and the riskiness of the idea in Ark innovation by Cathie Wood - it consists of just that. The Quality factor is dividends, blue chips, s&p 500 index, Dow Jones is about them. The Value factor is the value of perpetually undervalued companies with low multipliers, the core of the real economy, they also have their own index, Russell 2000 Growth factor - Growth stocks are companies with prospects of perpetual revenue growth Apple Tesla uber is them And the nasdaq 100 is their index The Size factor is about capitalization small, medium, large, huge The institutional manager's view on the composition of the portfolio is approximately as follows: there are two modes of money and no money. When all is well, money is worthless, cash is trash. The manager buys into his portfolio everything that has high risk and high profitability, high-risk assets: IPO, SMall Cap, venture capital, cryptocurrencies, etc. When the regime is like now, when money is expensive and everybody needs it, the riskiest part is sold first, and further down the chain the portfolio increases the share of cash and bonds from the shares. Here's how these factors look within the stock market cycle. High-risk cyclical small-cap stocks are the first to respond to rate cuts and economic recovery. Next come value stocks, then quality stocks, then growth stocks. Eventually the party ends for everyone and everything goes down, risk OFF mode kicks in. Finally, Bitcoin's connection to the stock market Next you will see the result of a manual correlation search with thousands of stocks of different factors and other asset classes. I will show just a few : the orange line is what we are comparing to, the blue line is the bitcoin scale logarithmic. correlation coefficient on the right - peak correlation and current correlation look only at the visual picture First s&p 500 index is a quality factor peak correlation 88 current 68. Large Cap, Quality, Low Beta For example Coca Cola - Correlation is negative. Nasdaq 100 factor Grow stock growth peaks correlation 86 current 72 is little is the Russell 2000 Value Factor Index And in it most of the small and mid-cap companies from the real economy cyclical sectors in the Peak correlation 93 now 79 The transport industry index in Peak is 95 current 82 Bank index 94 peaks 30 now If Bitcoin were a stock it would be an asset: Value, Cyclical, Small Cap, High Beta, High Risk asset. Stock - value, cyclical sector, small capitalization, high beta and high risk Its place in the cycle starts from where all cyclical industries like transportation, small capitalization companies with the value factor before the recession Here's what the dynamics of the various stocks look like depending on the macro regime actually this is the main chart look at top Bitcoin next comes the SP500 below the Russell 2000 index and the nasdaq 100 From the covid bottom After the rate cuts, everything went up - it's understandable high risk and loss assets rose the most. But of the indices, it was the Russell 2000 that showed the most growth February 2021 marked the vertical lines , inflation expectations hinted that things would be very bad and the entire high-risk segment of the portfolios began to close. the highbets and High Risk were the first to go under the knife. The Russell 2000 stayed basically the same as Bitcoin for a whole year, but it moved stronger. And the Nasdaq 100 and s&p 500 continued their movement. This January's response is the second vertical line turned risk OFF for all assets and the party is over. Bottom line Bitcoin doesn't go for the nasdaq it doesn't go for the s&p 500 goes with the Rassell 2000 index and high-risk assets as part of someone else's portfolios. So we have already seen a new bull run early and it will quickly start and quickly end we should try to be ready for it and not wait for miracles. I really want to remind you that bitcoin's bottom and peak is not a price or a date - it doesn't work that way. It is a period of macro regime change from risk on to risk off and back I have a plan for How to watch and how to act. Thank you very much for your attention. I wish you success in trading and learning the macro, I am sure you will find it very useful . I would also like to thank Anton Klevtsov for the information Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
47
US Dollar looks bearish stillAfter examining the Weekly chart for the DXY, it appears to me that the dollar flow is likely to continue downward for some time. Today's Advance GDP q/q reading is expected to be 2.0%, following the disappointing last reading of 2.6%. Additionally, the US Unemployment Claims are anticipated to be higher, at around 247K. In my recent blog posts, I discuss the current tax drain in the US, which is an annual occurrence that typically results in assets such as the S&P decreasing in value. However, this year is different as we have reached the debt ceiling, and there is a possibility that things could become precarious if the spending limits are not raised. While there is certainly uncertainty in the US political process, some financial media outlets and fintwit users are discussing the possibility of recessions and de-dollarization. While I agree that there is a flight from the greenback, this trend could easily reverse if a political resolution is reached. For each of the yen crosses that I have been following I'll wait to see where they are at when we get the news. I am not looking for trades before then. Here are the levels I expect us to touch at some point in the near future. USDJPY GBPJPY EURJPY
TVC:DXYShort
by Macrobriefing
US Inflation Alert: How Will Markets React?Investors are facing a busy week of economic data that includes the release of consumer price and producer price index data for March on Wednesday and Thursday (US time), respectively. The results of these reports will help determine whether or not the Fed will pause or end its rate-hiking campaign. While investors are leaning towards a continuation of the Fed's tightening campaign, the possibility of a pause should not be underestimated. In February 2023, the annual inflation rate in the US decreased to 6%, the lowest since September 2021, compared to January's 6.4%. Market expectations for this March's data predict a significant drop to 5.2%. Importantly, if inflationary pressures do not weaken as anticipated, traders may increase their bets on additional rate hikes beyond the predicted 25-basis-points in May (or even revise their expectations for the May hike). At the beginning of the week, investors responded to the March jobs report, which was released on Good Friday, with nonfarm payrolls growing by 236,000 for the month. This was roughly in line with the market estimate of 230,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% compared to the previous month's 3.6%. As a result, the US dollar lost ground in early Monday trading, with the EUR/USD double peaking before traders lost confidence, causing the euro to fall below Monday's opening and crash through 1.0885. This level has served as the pair's bottom several times this month, as well as acting as a barrier for a longer-term rising trendline. Traders might now focus on 1.0822 and 1.0800 as the next downside targets. Following the release of CPI data, the Federal Reserve is expected to issue the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
by BlackBull_Markets
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
A Look at the Turkish EconomyAs we all know, the increase in foreign currency increases the general product prices extraordinarily, as it increases the input costs. The rise of the foreign exchange is a phenomenon that a country does not want. Every country aims to keep the exchange rate stable. But for some reason, Turkey came out of these countries. As can be seen from this chart, from 2006 to 2020, Turkey continued to print money with a certain pattern. This is an acceptable factor for each country under certain conditions. The money supply, which increased with a trend of 23 degrees, started to rise more sharply after 2020, and especially after March 2021, the trend reached 53 degrees. This trend change is a clear indication of how fast the printing of money is. Therefore, as the money supply increases, there is a natural depreciation of the currency (Orange line shows the rising Dollar against the Turkish Lira). In the same period, interest rates were reduced, as can be seen from the black line. By lowering interest rates, what a country normally aims at is to create consumption demand by reducing borrowing costs. Therefore, the demand for consumption has increased, and with it, demand inflation has arisen. Meanwhile, printing money decreased the value of the Turkish Lira (the exchange rate rose), which increased the input costs. The increase in input costs was reflected in the sales prices of the products. Therefore, inflation was fueled by both demand and foreign currency. It will be impossible to know why the Turkish government did this, why it deliberately ignited inflation, which no economist can explain. If you have an idea, you can write it in the comments. Thanks.
ECONOMICS:TRM2
by YavuzAkbay
1
Bitcoin Macro outlook 2023 . . .. . . and why is wise being Bearish on Bitcoin & crypto at the moment. Hi everyone , I make this super simple, so it even looks stupid. 1 Month Time Frame We see that after peeking at 69k price reversed and our modus operandi is sell to buy to sell . Meaning, we have large sells followed by buying just to proceed next large sell once price is elevated. This MO taking between 2-3 months in each shift. We already had our upside move in 2023 = price are elevated... ... global macro economy outlook is not so great either with high interest rates & inflation & situation between Ukrain- Russia not bringing any stability into west world either. Monthly candle close at around 15hours. If closing price is lower then 23315.95$ odds are highly shifting to favor further *selling TLTR: ´ We are up a lot from bottom, if we close under 23315,95$ on 1M, we have high probability that it will go to seek other end of liquidity upcoming months´ Joe
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
7
DXY - Will US Dollar history of 1981 repeat? 🔲DXY Will the USD find support at this important monthly line🔲and history of 1981 repeat with a bullish run⁉️🚨 Personally I don't expect that due to the parabolic $-M1 Supply But what are your thoughts on that dear #Bitcoin and Crypto Nation? Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
TVC:DXY
by Crypto4Everybody
Bitcoin - RVGI indicator❌cross just occurred🔵🚨👀The RVGI indicator❌cross just occurred🔵🚨🚨🚨👀 Look at the great entry points🟢for Bitcoin when these crosses❌occurred in the past on the US10Y-US02Y chart dear BTC and Crypto Nation💥🚀😎 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
Market Cycles: What They Are and the Psychology Behind Them All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction. 📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity. Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise. They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk. In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage. However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency, as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side. It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic. In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage. The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon." But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom). Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage. Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
Education
by VasilyTrader
6
Bitcoin & Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️Update: US Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️ Index with a bear channel breakout on the way up - needs to be confirmed above 65.2 dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation 🚨🚨🚨 Exciting to see if a BTC🟠 #bullish run begins afterwards Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
ECONOMICS:USCCI
by Crypto4Everybody
A major bull trap has been set.The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis 2.0 are beginning to rear their heads, including things such as: -The auto loan bubble -The residential & commercial real estate bubble -The private equity and venture capital bubble -The largest losses in the total bond market in generations -Highest level of Federal Debt to GDP in US history and extremely high level of consumer & corporate debt in US history -The most overvalued market based on forward earnings in history (Based on my expectations of S&P 2023 earnings will fall below 140). Peak margins above -13% coming back under 10% will also help to drive this. -The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since Paul Volcker and $90 billion of quantitative tightening per month. -The crypto bubble implosion where many exchanges are likely to fail due to their ponzi-like staking dynamics and unprofitable nature of exchanges like Coinbase. We are starting to see the beginnings of the financial contagion from FTX into other exchanges and coins. This is happening in an industry valued at over $3 trillion at its peak. -The Chinese real estate crisis and recession -The energy crisis which has curtailed over 20% of EU industrial capacity and is sending Europe into a recession. This is leading to increased energy costs around the world. -Looming sovereign debt crises & currency crises for emerging and certain developed economies. - Monetary growth is contracting at the highest pace since the Great Depression. The $1.6 trillion auto loan bubble is reminiscent of the subprime lending bubble. There were incredibly loose lending standards in this auto loan bubble, where people that received federal stimulus checks were able to claim these as income. This entitled them to larger sized loans than they would have otherwise had access too. Many of these loans were made at over 130% loan to value ratio. These loans have been packaged up as bonds and sold off to investors hungry in search for yield in a world of artificially low interest rates, suppressed by the Fed for the better part of 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis. The amount of delinquent auto loans has continued to increase, and the looming crisis represents a huge threat to financial stability. As real wages and employment continue to fall, the amount of delinquent loans will continue to rise. Earnings for the S&P 500 in Q3 have already started to contract more than 5% year over year (excluding energy) and yet many analysts still expect some, to no growth of earnings in 2023. Earnings are likely to collapse over 40% in 2023, pressured by falling consumer demand and falling operating margins. Consumer sentiment registered the worst sentiment among US consumers since the great depression. All of the Fed manufacturing and service data components show comparable data now to data being released in mid 2008 to the spring of 2009, all with continuously negative trends. Capital expenditures have begun decreasing and mass layoffs are just beginning. 37% of US small businesses could not pay their rent in full in October. Many companies will be forced to close their doors permanently and layoff their entire staff. Consumption began to fall rapidly after the Fed began quantitative tightening and ended quantitative easing. The effects finally began hitting company earnings largely in Q3, with much more pain to follow. Meanwhile, many companies continued to hire large amounts of people unaware that consumption would continue to collapse. As asset prices fall further and inflation stays elevated, real wages will continue falling. Student loan payments begin again at the start of 2023, further harming consumer sentiment. Money supply growth began stagnating early in the year in 1929 and the federal government began to tighten spending with the New Deal programs in 1936 before the crash happened in 1937. Bank balance sheets have been flat for 2022 while the central bank balance sheet has been contracting leading to a slight contraction in the money supply. The contracting growth of monetary supply and fast paced increases in interest rates will lead to a large-scale downturn in GDP. On a technical basis, the current market setup looks very similar to 1929, 1937, 1973-1974, 1987, and 2008. All of which had major rallies that topped in late summer / fall before crashing over 30%. All of these crashes took place over the span of less than 3 months, with the majority of the percentage decline occurring over a period of 2-3 weeks. There are dozens of companies that are virtually guaranteed to go bust in this downturn based on an overview of their financials. There have never been so many listed companies that reached valuations in the billions at their peak with no earnings . Many companies at the time of this writing still have valuations of over 6 times sales and many companies such as Coinbase, Uber, and Rivian are still valued at over $10 billion market caps whilst losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. The dozens of zombie companies in the S&P 500 are being forced into rolling their debts at higher interest rates while their earnings fall. This will be the largest debt deleveraging cycle in the US economy since the great depression, because this is the largest accumulation of bad debts since the roaring twenties. It is not long until the credit risk is truly realized by market participants, and interest rates spike throughout the economy. This would include the inter-bank lending rate and junk rated bonds which would lead to a financial crisis. The longer the Fed’s quantitative tightening runs, the more inevitable the financial crisis becomes. The Fed ran the balance sheet down around $600 billion over the course of 2018 into late summer of 2019 before inter-bank lending rates started to spike. This time, the Fed has run the balance sheet down close to $300 billion so far with a plan of reaching over a $600 billion runoff in Q1 of 2023. The hopes for a Fed pivot are misplaced. A Fed pivot on interest rate hikes and even a reversal of the rate hikes cannot re-incentivize people to borrow . In a contracting credit cycle and business cycle downturn, debt begins to be paid off and defaulted on rather than excessively accumulated. The demand to borrow collapses even if interest rates were lowered by the Fed. Therefore, bear markets and recessions usually don’t end until many months after the Fed has already begun cutting interest rates. This was seen in the Great Recession and the dot com bubble of 2000; where the market didn’t bottom until over 18 months after the Fed began cutting rates.
TVC:NDQShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
Do you Hear Lumber Screaming?Lumber is at a critical inflection point. Its likely telling us that Central bank policy is about to experience more inflation if they start to ease to soon. If Lumber continues to rally, its screaming more housing inflation could be around the corner. Since we have a major Technical Topping formation in play, Lumber is still vulnerable to more downside which could also mean the housing market has much softer prices ahead. If lumber is to show nay chance of negating this bearish pattern it needs to close above the yellow trendline for 2 consecutive weeks.
L
by Trading-Capital
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵 ☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda) ☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue. ☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. ☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. ☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
Education
by ProSignalsFx
7
Bitcoin and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexive 🔴☑️⭐️🟢Update Bitcoin and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index possible bullish scenario when... 1. Index is negative🔴☑️ 2. Index breaks trendline⭐️ 3. enjoy the BTC bull run🟢 Today bad value -13.8⬆️more patience necessary🚨 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Crypto4Everybody
US Weekly Fundamental Recap & macro thoughts - Jan 15Let’s take a look at some data from this last week. In summary: - CPI continued to inch lower (7.1 to 6.5) - Unemployment claims remained static (~200k) - Consumer sentiment on the rise (59.7 to 64.6) - S&P held around 4k for the close of the week and seems to be starting off strong with further pullback on the US dollar. Keep in mind interest rates remain high, along with inflation though we are seeing some progress. Lets look at some other important factors to consider relating to high interest rates. We will be here a while, right? The state of the overall economy: If the economy is strong, businesses and consumers may be more likely to continue spending and borrowing despite higher interest rates. - Consumer spending is holding, but consumer debt is on the rise. If debt continues to increase / remain high, that we should see consumer spending decline. The leading indicator is there.. The level of inflation: Higher interest rates are often used as a tool to combat inflation, so if inflation is already high, the impact of higher interest rates on the economy may be less severe. - Inflation remains high, meaning we should see less effect on the economy oooor, it just takes a little longer to grip. I believe that’s where we are sitting. The wait.. The level of consumer and business confidence: If consumers and businesses are confident in the economy, they may be more likely to continue spending and borrowing despite higher interest rates. - Consumer confidence is low but picking up. Why is this? My thoughts are because we still have jobs, inflation is coming down and the majority still have money to spend. Though if debt continues to rise – that will change. - The level of consumer debt: Higher interest rates can make it more expensive for consumers to carry debt, which can lead to a decrease in consumer spending and potentially increase in defaults. - When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it generally leads to an increase in interest rates for credit cards. This is because as the cost of borrowing money goes up for banks, they will pass on the increased cost to consumers in the form of higher interest rates on credit card loans. - It's important to note that credit card interest rates are also affected by the overall level of demand for credit, the creditworthiness of borrowers, the level of competition among credit card issuers, and other factors. So, there is no a direct relationship between the federal funds rate and credit card interest rates, but the later one may be affected by the former. The level of international trade: Higher interest rates can make a country's exports more expensive, which can decrease demand for them, and in turn, negatively impact the labor market. - Exports remain steady into 2022 – with the US dollar weakening, this could help ease some of the pain felt from higher interest rates The level of government spending: Government spending can act as a buffer to the negative impact of higher interest rates on the economy. - Well, we are raising the debt ceiling, again. Spending remains relatively flat by the big cats. The level of interest rates relative to other countries: Higher interest rates in one country can make its assets less attractive to foreign investors, potentially leading to a decrease in capital inflows, a stronger currency and a decrease in exports. - We have seen decline in investor debt – does this mean more investment or mless? I honestly don’t know.. But there it is. My Conclusion: We are in interesting times, currently some major drivers are either static or improving. But the rates remain high – and will stay high, manufacturing indexes and housing prices continue to fall. These are leading me to believe that we could still see some lagging indicators to sag. Unless there is drastic news – the stock market should not see any major decline. S&P/NAS may inch higher this week. Looking ahead – the spoken words will be the most influential – time to listen.
FX:NAS100
by Scott_The_Chartist
2
Gold May Reach New All-Time Highs Early In Q3:2023My research suggests Gold may continue to rally above $2079 in early July 2023. I believe the current US/Global market crisis event is very unique - something many people fail to understand. Many professional analysts have gotten married to the 2008 market collapse scenario. I'm watching dozens of posts on social media and other sites where everyone is uber short. I don't understand why it seems so many people fail to understand the real context of the global markets right now. In my opinion, this is 2003-05 all over again - mixed with a bit of 1993~1997. Few people really understand what I'm talking about. Let's see if you can tell me what you see in the markets right now. The biggest opportunity of your life is about to unfold. Get ready for a big WAVE-5 Rally.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
3
Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation stable See the reverse of Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀 Do we see the next Top in PCE and a following #bullish momentum for BTC dear Crypto Nation😎 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
FRED:PCETRIM12M159SFRBDALLong
by Crypto4Everybody