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Economics

True Dollar Index - Adj. for IMF Currency Reserve Weight (2022)As there appears to be much discourse around the status of the dollar as "the world reserve currency", it seems interesting to me that the standard measure of the dollar's strength is not weighted in this way. Here I am attempting to reconcile the standard dollar index (DXY), which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of other currencies (see below), with the dollar's presence within the IMF's World Currency Reserves (see below). I have chosen to call this the "True Dollar Index" (TDI) To do so, I have first taken the ratio of the Dollar's IMF weight against each currency and multiplied it by the dollar denominated exchange rate. Then I attempt to normalize the value by dividing it by the average of the 9 dollar denominated exchange rates. The equation I used for the 2022 TDI is as follows(*): (USDEUR * (58.81/20.64) + USDJPY * (58.81/5.57) + USDGBP * (58.81/4.78) + USDCNH * (58.81/2.79) + USDCAD * (58.81/2.38) + USDAUD * (58.81/1.81) + USDCHF * (58.81/0.2) + USDSGD * (58.81/1.505) + USDHKD * (58.81/1.505)) / ((USDEUR + USDJPY + USDGBP + USDCNH + USDCAD + USDAUD + USDCHF + USDSGD + USDHKD)/9) (*) This is in standard TradingView equation format and can be directly copy/pasted into the search bar - though values will convert to decimal As the weighting of the IMF World Currency Reserves is shuffled and reported at the end of the year, this should only be taken to be valid as of Q1 2022. For comparison, I have included the DXY in Orange. Note that I have adjusted the DXY by 41.0351, this is the difference in their starting values on Dec 31, 2021. This should allow us to capture deviation from this starting point. I chose this action as opposed to adjusting the existing equation to for simplicity, though one could easily drag the TDI down by subtracting the same amount. I make no claims to the accuracy of this chart as a measure of the strength of the dollar. I am not an economist, and I am happy to hear suggestions on how to improve this model. DXY Geometric Weightings: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight Currency composition of official IMF foreign exchange reserves: Dollar (USD), 58.81% Euro (EUR), 20.64% Japanese yen (JPY), 5.57% Pound sterling (GBP),4.78% Chinese renminbi, 2.79% Canadian dollar (CAD), 2.38% Australian dollar (AUD), 1.81% Swiss franc (CHF), .2% Other, 3.01%* *To account for this ambiguity, I have opted for a 50/50 split of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the Singapore Dollar (SGD). These are roughly equal in their use as a global payment currency at the time of writing and are the only top payment currencies not already included in the weighting. Sources: en.wikipedia.org data.imf.org
by mdamante
1
Economic data that a trader should be able to understand.Part 1. No matter how well you use technical analysis, you should still follow the fundamental news. Fundamental news can push the market against you and destroy any pattern and even reverse the trend. Every professional trader uses an economic calendar for this purpose. Thanks to the data from the economic calendar, you can predict when the market may start behaving unusually, and with proper analysis of the reports, you will be able to determine the future price movement. Today we will talk about these reports, what they mean and what to do with them. Employment The employment data takes into account the total number of employees – both ordinary employees and self-employed citizens. Employment data are important because they are an indicator of the current potential of a country's economic productivity. The production of goods and services directly depends on how many people have the desire and opportunity to work. If all of them are employed, it means, obviously, the country is not able to produce more, because it has no unused labor force. Employment is highly cyclical because when demand for goods and services increases, companies tend to increase working hours instead of hiring new workers. When the economy begins to deteriorate, companies prefer not to reduce working hours, but to get rid of extra workers, because layoffs allow you to save on pension and other deductions, which are usually very expensive. Economists track the addition of working hours and the number of overtime hours, defining them as positive changes for the employment sector. If these indicators begin to fall, it may mean a slowdown in the economy or a potentially possible entry into the recession phase. Unemployment The unemployment data takes into account the total number of people who can and want to work if they have the opportunity, but do not have a job. Unemployment is highly cyclical for the same reasons as employment. They are opposites of each other. These data are important because they are an indicator of excess labor, which economists tend to regard as wasted resources. Unemployment is also called unemployment. There is a natural unemployment rate. Companies can only hire a certain number of people. At some point, the competition for employees becomes very high, because there are few vacancies. This, in turn, increases inflation, as hours worked and average hourly wages increase. People are starting to have more disposable income that they can spend inside the economy on expensive items such as cars and houses, which will cause inflation to rise. The inflation rate is of great interest to us, as central banks pay a lot of attention to it. Keeping inflation at the levels outlined in their policies and financial mandates is part of their job. Too high or too low inflation will force the central bank to intervene in financial markets. Personal income and Disposable Income In these data, the total income of the population after deduction of taxes to the state is taken into account. They are important because they are the basis for consumption and for personal savings within the economy. Personal consumption and spending account for about half to two-thirds of GDP in developed countries, which makes these indicators extremely important. When people's personal incomes grow, chances are high that they will start spending more money inside the economy. When there is a shortage of personal income, it is very unlikely that people will have a desire to spend the little money they have on goods that are not necessary for survival. Economists pay attention to the steady growth of real personal income. If it is too fast, it will cause a sharp increase in inflation. If it is too slow, it can lead to deflation, which is very bad for the economy (and for the positions of bankers of the central bank). By the way, we will devote a separate article to inflation and deflation, as this is a very important topic. Don't be afraid, we've got it all covered! Consumer and Personal Expenditure, Private Consumption In this type of data, total expenses are measured. In other words, how much each person consumes on average. They are important because they are a key component of GDP along with personal and disposable income, as they show how much money each person is ready to spend on goods and services at the moment – both necessary and just desired. Don't forget, spending is something very serious for developed countries. Economists track the dynamics of changes in real interest rates in order to adjust their views on the economy. For example, if expenses grow by 6%, and prices rise by only 4%, then real expenses have increased by only 2%. Positive and negative changes in spending on durable goods (for example, cars, washing machines, agricultural equipment) can be an early signal of changes in the economic situation. An increase in the number of purchases is regarded as a positive phenomenon, while a decrease in purchases is generally considered negative for the economy. an overview of the rest of the economic data can be found in the next article. all the best.
Education
by DeGRAM
9
Economics you need to understand before clicking BUY/SELL buttonHow does FED affect money supply? Before, we get into our main topic, we just wanted to clarify a small common misconception. Quick answer to the question above is the monetary policy; however, a lot of people confuse monetary and fiscal policies or use the terms interchangeably. Indeed, both are macroeconomic tools used to stimulate/slow down the economy. Interest rates and the amount of money in circulation are dealt with by monetary policy, which is usually administered by a central bank (a.k.a. FED). Taxation and government expenditure are addressed by fiscal policy, which is mostly controlled by government law. Now that we clarified this small moment, let’s get back to our main topic. Central banks have always utilized monetary policy to either boost or restrain an economy's growth. The goal of monetary policy is to stimulate economic activity by motivating people and firms to borrow and spend. Monetary policy, on the other hand, may serve as a brake on inflation and other ills associated with an overheated economy by constraining expenditure and rewarding savings. To impact the economy, the Federal Reserve has regularly employed three policy tools: open market operations, adjusting bank reserve requirements, and setting the discount rate. The Federal Reserve buys and sells U.S. government bonds on a daily basis in order to either pump money into the economy or remove money from circulation. The Fed directly controls the quantity of money generated when banks issue loans by adjusting the reserve ratio, or the proportion of deposits that banks must maintain in reserve. Changes in the discount rate (the interest rate the Fed charges on loans to financial institutions) can also be targeted by the Fed, with the goal of influencing short-term interest rates across the economy. A picture above would be a great illustration of the process. Why is this important for traders? Let’s face the reality, most traders fail to lack of education. All they see are bars and wicks. Profitable traders see economical trends, which are backed by real time tendencies in the whole economy (if we cancel out the noise and speculations). If you understand the mechanism behind money, it’s 100x times easier to make it. Note: Our article doesn’t imply that fiscal policy isn’t as important to market as the monetary one, even though it’s important to understand that fiscal policy takes months/years to get passes and have any effect on the economy, meanwhile monetary policy swifts the sentiment overnight.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Investroy
7
BTC Its at a major decision area RN, Bull or Bear?BTC has has hit the area of long term support from way back as far 2019. Is this a retest of the break thru of the trend line below, only to continue on its almost 5 month old down trend? Will it break thru & follow the trend line as support to go for new all time highs? Also the area we are currently at is a major support & resistance zone for the last 12 months, as per the red arrows on my chart. Institutions are buying & hodling lge amounts of BTC & other cryptos. When you take a lot of selling pressure of the exchanges it means price can rise a lot more easy with fomo. Also this can mean that a bottom of a bear cycle can not drop as previous ones, "Unless institution's take profits". Things to consider are the current stocks selling & nerves ATM. Economic conditions in the USA. A possible Russia / Ukraine war that could drag the USA & rest of the world into. This bull run has over extended with time as per other bull cycles. Are we in a bear cycle until next halving aprox March 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheAussieBogan
1
Current inflation has nothing to do with the FedWith the most anticipated FOMC announcement in a long time coming tomorrow I'm throwing out my prediction: the Fed will be surprisingly patient with their tapering. This chart shows a few reasons why: 1. M2 growth does not have anywhere close to the same effect as it did on inflation in 1970. From the 3 decades 1970-2000 the CPI Growth/M2 growth was in the range of 0.65-0.75. Something happened in the next decade that broke this ratio down where it has been declining ever since - QE. Quantitative easing allowed the Fed to flood bank reserves into the system to protect from a liquidity crisis. This is what people refer to as "printing money" but in reality it that money is not being injected into the real economy. Banks reserves need to get loaned out and circulated in the economy to have an effect on inflation and this appetite for loans is not something their QE controls. Lower rates may have a limited affect but the majority comes from aggregate demand factors that are difficult to control. The second chart shows the first derivate of CPI/M2 over a 12 month period. Comparing the levels in the 1970s to our current period should make it clear we are not seeing even close to the same effects on CPI that we did then. We are still in an era more similar to 2010-2020 than 1970-1980 and the Fed doesn't even need to stop purchases to see the growth rate slow. 2. The dollar has not has barely been effected and already looks to have bottomed. The last chart shows how drastically the dollar index plunged in the two CPI spikes of the 1970s. This preluded the actual CPI numbers which is intuitive - the dollar plunging takes time to actually reach the consumer. This current cycle we haven't seen anything close to that. The dollar has held steady and is relatively unchanged since 2014. The dollar is not seeing a massive decline relative to other currencies like we did in the 1970s. 3. Supply issues have clearly had an effect on CPI It's not a surprise that Covid severely damaged the worlds supply chains. Pretty much every earnings call from a company that is exposed to the global supply chain mentions this. The New York Fed has a gauge here if you want to see for yourself. Luckily, it seems to be peaking but we are not sure of that yet. In summary, the inflation numbers we've seen are likely not being caused by monetary policy and the Fed knows this. Supply pressures look like they are starting to ease but we are not out of the woods. A drastic measure by the Fed may not even work to stop the inflation if my my assumptions are correct and it would induce a much more damaging stagflation. I predict the Fed is extremely cautious with their moves and we will not see anything drastic in tomorrows statement.
INDEX:DXYLong
by Seth-Goldberg
Gold (GLD) is set for a major breakout to the upside!In this article I will explain why we at Dow Experts Finance have recently increased our exposure in our corporate investment portfolio to Gold by buying into the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust, what our economic projections are for 2022 and why we believe that investors need to be highly cautious in the coming months. The last more than a decade has been defined by a generally loose monetary and fiscal policy with artificially low interest rates, Quantitative Easing (QE), falling bond yields and consistently rising stock prices. We discussed all of these components, their inter-correlation and dependence in our detailed macro analysis published back on June 29th, 2021, where we accurately predicted the strong appreciation of the USD in the 2nd half of 2021, despite the fact that the broad consensus in the market at the time was for a weaker US dollar throughout 2021. You're welcome. Now, it’s time for us to share with you our analysis and thoughts on where we see the global economy, interest rates, inflation, bonds yields and of course stock prices heading in 2022. We believe that having the right macro economic framework and understanding of how leading economic forces and indicators affect the demand for money as well as goods and services globally is essential for being successful as an investor in these highly complex times. Being able to recognize major trends, correlations and structural changes allows you to efficiently optimize and re-balance your investment portfolio in a way that will ultimately help you to stay one step ahead of the market. Today's analysis will focus exclusively on Gold, as we will be releasing our full macro investing outlook for this year in the coming weeks and we don't want to overlap too many things between the two articles. At any rate, our full macro investing outlook paper will present you with a much deeper dive, showing you where we see the best trading and investing opportunities in 2022 and beyond. The Technical Set-Up Apart from the great cup and handle technical formation on the monthly chart, which is a strong BULLISH continuation pattern, GLD is also expected to receive a meaningful boost from a weakening US DOLLAR and the elevated levels of inflation that we expect to see in the US moving forward. The Cup & Handle technical pattern currently in play has been forming since the lows at around $40/oz set all the way back in 2005. As you can see on the chart below the price action has been characterized by a sharp price rise in Stage 1; a corrective phase with the formation of a broad base, Stage 2; another strong rally (Stage 3) taking the price back to the highs reached in Stage 1; a minor profit taking correction (Stage 4). This is a textbook set up for a meaningful multi-year rally for Gold, especially considering the fact that it is on the monthly chart. The new mandate of the Fed The Federal Reserve has shifted its growth mandate to a price mandate at the end of 2021, which means that achieving price stability and lower inflation readings is now a more important goal than chasing growth and pushing equity markets higher with artificially low interest rates and generally loose monetary policy conditions. So, what does that mean? It means that in the event of a sharp correction in the US equity markets caused by the expected strong tightening in monetary policy conditions, the Fed will be less likely to jump in to the rescue of equities by lowering the benchmark interest rates and resuming its QE program (as it did back in March of 2020). Reason being, such actions would simply throw gasoline in the inflation fires in the economy. The current environment - We have highly inflated US equity markets sitting at all-time highs; - A weakening US Dollar with a descending triangle formation on the monthly chart with 4 rate hikes already priced in for 2022, thus leaving it a very limited fundamentally supported upside from here. In case the Fed is unable to complete all 4 interest rate hikes in 2022 and/or interest rate expectations start shifting for whatever reason, the US dollar will experience a major sell-off. - A high inflation up until now mainly driven by supply-chain bottlenecks, which is expected to stay relatively high in the foreseeable future. - The weakening US Dollar will further increase the inflation in the US economy for the following reasons: Import prices will rise causing a degree of imported inflation The rise in aggregate demand from cheaper exports The fall in the value of the dollar may reduce the incentives for firms to cut costs because they get an ‘easy’ improvement in competitiveness. Therefore, a fall in the dollar may harm long-term competitiveness. - A hawkish Federal Reserve with a price mandate instead of a growth mandate - Unfavorable demographic trend with the highest ever number of people expected to leave the workforce in 2022 (baby boomers retiring). Conclusion We believe that the Federal Reserve is already way behind the curve with its tapering and tightening efforts as it is still technically injecting liquidity into the market with over $60 billion worth of assets bought this month alone. Moving forward, after concluding its tapering process in March, 2022 the Fed will make an attempt to catch up with the running inflation, but will still be somewhat limited in terms of the actual pace of policy tightening as they would not want to sent the economy into a deep and prolonged recession. Furthermore, with the excessive amounts of credit injected into the system over the last few years, the Fed is well aware that if asset prices collapse dramatically, that would mean that the collateral of these record levels of public and private debt will go down, reducing personal wealth and making it much more difficult for borrowers to service their loans. In addition to that, if inflation stays relatively elevated for prolonged periods of time that will also eat away from the purchasing power of consumers, thus making their wages and earnings less valuable. So we might be heading towards an economic environment where, asset prices come down as a result of tightening of monetary policy conditions, rates go up but fail to completely subdue the raging inflation as they are simply starting from a very low level (0.25%) and will take the Fed a long time in order to get them back above 2% or higher. This would then lead to a further erosion in the purchasing power of the end consumer, thus lowering the Aggregate Demand in the US economy and lowering the Real GDP moving forward. On the other hand, the current demographic mix and the millions of people expected to leave the workforce this year, together with the continuous technological innovation present in the economy are both going to exercise their respective deflationary pressures moving forward. We hope that these developments could also help the Fed in the fight against inflation putting somewhat of a natural lid to how high inflation could rise in the long run. We believe that the economy would eventually self-correct and stabilize in the long run, but we will definitely have to go through a period of economic contraction in order for that to happen. Gold is widely considered as a safe-haven asset, which tends to outperform in times of uncertainty, volatility and lower GDP growth, thus making it an attractive asset for 2022 and beyond! Follow & Copy us @DowExperts on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance!
AMEX:GLDLong
by DowExperts
The Federal Reserve Effect on AssetsHello friends, today I am showing you six charts - US Dollar (DXY), 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate, Gold, Bitcoin (BTCUSD), WTI Crude Oil and S&P 500 Index (SPX). These are some of the biggest traded assets in the world. The vertical lines on each chart represents the beginning of the month. Over the three months since September 2021, the US Federal Reserve has been pointing to a reduction in balance sheet and dropping in hints of what the are considering (such as tapering, rate hikes and so on). This has directly impacted assets classes across the world as shown in these charts. There is no doubt that interest rates will go up if the Fed is openly saying they want to raise rates so it is with no doubt that the 10 year treasury is up. With that though oil has also been going up while other asset classes like Bitcoin, Gold and S&P 500 are going down. Interestingly the S&P 500 Index has not suffered as bad as Bitcoin has even though many consider them correlated in some way. This may be an indicator of what is to come soon. Lastly, the US Dollar seems to be getting stronger over the past few months and from my prior analysis of it (see ideas below), there is a strong potential for it to keep going higher. 2022 into 2023 will be a surely interesting year with what the Federal Reserve is looking to do. There are many other asset classes I didn't review on this analysis. If you want to drop in others, feel free to do so. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research!
SP:SPX
by MillionaireEconomics
23
DXY D1 - Short Correction ExpectedDXY D1 Like we mentioned, non-farm payrolls, average earnings and unemployment figures are coming out this afternoon 1:30pm UK time, so as the NA session comes into play. We can expect some nice volume. This may be the trend setter for the month ahead. We are obviously hoping to see the USD correct and pull down towards that 94.500 region, which would compliment our cable longs. Additionally, this would give us confidence in looking for resumed USD bull continuations from the 94.500 price.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
10Y U.S Bond Yield Signaling Rotation from Growth to Value StockTVC:US10Y I'm just looking at the 10Y U.S bond yield to try and better pinpoint the overall macro conditions to expect for the equity market this year. Based on my technical analysis, 10YUS yield is currently trading in an Elliot Wave 5 wave ABCDE pattern, it's inside a triangle that seems to also be the extension of a cup and handle bullish formation. The (D) pattern just reached the top of the triangle pattern, CCI indicator is also on the higher end which indicates the likelihood that this pattern will play out. Right now it looks like it's headed to the (E) phase of the pattern, which is the final phase of the correction before initiating a strong uptrend that could have the 10YUS yield reach 2% or higher (even potential of going pre-pandemic levels). Fundamentals also align with my theory that bond yields will fall from here on until about March, which is also when FED is expected to reverse QE (quantitative easing). After the (E) phase of the EW has been reached, I suspect a massive breakout in bond yields, which can cause a drop in equity markets along with an overall sector rotation from growth to value stock.
TVC:US10Y
by TheRealWolfette
US10Year YieldIn my most novice opinion, the correlation of the the yield to SPY correlation has been off a bit due to a mix of tax sell offs and maybe some Omicron fear. However, although we are in a area in opinion, we should still be careful and watch how the correlation moves as we close out the end of 2021 and as we head into next year. GDP growth is slow but has been steadily recovering. Now it's a battle between new fear and prior recovery boost. It's been a movie. Let's see what happens!
TVC:US10YLong
by Redimere_91
When Will BNGO Reverse? A look into S&DNASDAQ:BNGO Hello all, short article today about the play of Supply and Demand on BNGO. My current positions as always will be listed at the bottom of the page. The laws of Supply and Demand suggest that the two are inversely related, When supply increases demand decreases and vice versa. When looking at BNGO we have seen a steady decline in price over the last eight or so months. The interesting part to me is the fact that investors have bought far more than selling in this decline. How can the price of something continue to decline even as people buy it. If investors began selling out of the stock heavily, and consistently, a drop in price would be to expected, as the supply of sellers far out matches the buyers. But in the case of BNGO The supply of sellers continues to be below that of the demand of the buyers. We must understand that the stock market is far more complex than just the laws of supply and demand, but these laws tie heavily into human nature. Can we calculate for when we will hit an equilibrium? Yes: According to the equilibrium price formula, while using the current price and volume as our demand curve, and the average price and volume since the start of the decline. The output of those calculations is as follows: Demand curve: P = 3.85 - 6,470,000 Q Supply Curve: P = 5.79 + 9,447,878 Q Equilibrium Price: 4.64 This suggests we are currently under bought, also known as being in the "Supply Shortage" Zone. This means that soon enough there will be far to little shares to buy and no enough sellers, and the only way to pull back to the equilibrium price is to raise the price of the shares. All of this considers that the demand for BNGO will continue to rise, if the demand for BNGO were to turn negative, this price would not be accurate. So what do you think about a 4.64 price target? Does it align with your short term thoughts on where this price will go? (The S&D graph is displayed in blue on the chart) Current Positions In BNGO: Stock positions @5.97 Stock Positions @4.00 Short Call options @1.21 for a strike of $5, for 21-01-2022. Long Put options @0.22 for a strike of $4, for 17-12-2021. This is to hedge against short term downside lost. Long Put Options @0. 05 for a strike of $2, for 21-01-2022. to protect against a major free fall in price. Short Call options @0.21 for a strike of $6, for 21-01-2022. This is my most recent addition to continue generating income on my long position- and to help pay for the continuation of purchasing put options against a free fall.
NASDAQ:BNGO
by braydenboyko
$MSOS AdvisorShares - US Cannabis ETF - BreakoutON VOLUME. Volume precedes price. A move without volume is suspect (see #shib). States Reform Act on Monday should be a headliner for sure. Lot's of legislation to look forward to. #cannabisreform #thegem Jobs & Justice Akerna $KERN has the data. Enterprise Solutions, Compliance SOFTWARE CEO Jessica Billingsley is Chair of USCC, United States Cannabis Council. $ITHUF $GNLN $GPRO $FCEL $PLUG $GM $VIXY US5Y UP. Large cap #stonks & #cryptocrash to #cannabisreform The future.
AMEX:MSOSLong
by EpicEconomics
6
XMR/BUSD Expanding PhaseMonero (XMR) is setting up for a bullrun, just created its second wave of expansion to the upside, holding higher with huge demand, still without making any significant correction, which soundly demonstrates that the market's appetite for Monero is at its very early stages, as central banks keep on steamrolling their stimulae packages, printing money like there's no tomorrow, governments cracking down on fiscal havens, setting a worldwide minimum tax rate, public-blockchain heavyweights like Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) getting increasingly discredited by those who see their every transactions tracked by IRS or its equivalents, due to conventional banking institutions reporting "know your customer" (KYC) details to the US authorities for tax-evasion mitigation, under the pretense of "anti money-laundering" (AML) & "combating the financing of terrorism" (CFT), which are all state measures to curtail individual liberty and force people to acquiesce to the forced wealth confiscation that conventional finance is accustomed to uphold, all of which is defied by Monero and other privacy cryptocurrencies.
XLong
by acsedward