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GBPJPY - LONGGBPJPY is in the upward trending channel, coming off a HL & a inverted head and shoulders pattern, I expect to see a bullish run after a pullback into previous broken S turned R. Investor fears over the Trump's health are easing while health officials expect to discharge the President from Walter Reed as early as today. Also, optimism over a fresh US fiscal stimulus plan is growing as analysts see increased urgency from both sides, House speaker Nancy Pelosi is pushing for the appeal as well. Asia's MSCI Pacific Index climbed 1.3% while Japan's Topix Index closed 1.7% higher. By 5:50am S&P 500 Futures pointed to plenty of green at the open, the 10-year government treasury bond yields skyrocketed.
Long
by edisonamb
DEVALUED DOLLAR & BIDEN WIN?: Watch GOLD & Bitcoin The "collective consciousness" as some have called it in the past, the market is an almost perfect diagnostic tool for determining where we are and where we're going. Millions of minds in their buying, selling, and even political voting decisions determine what we value as a society collective. We can see this everyday on charts — the price of stocks, bonds, commodities, forex etc. all reflect what we value. The needs and wants of society tend to repeat, and charts can illustrate these with the patterns they create. Today we see a pattern that hasn't repeated since 2002. The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) broke its uptrend it had been making since March 2008. It dipped below the trend line in July and has attempted to recover back above $95, but has failed to and will fail to recover (see DXY September 2002). Looking at the Dollar in 2002, the same pattern had occurred. The dollar broke its uptrend in June and recovered only back to the underside of the trend line. On October 28th 2002, the DXY broke down and started a six year downtrend. GOLD as a stable store of value started its uptrend on the very same day, the 28th of October 2002 and has climbed from $320 to $1900. This is no doubt attributed to the large amounts of currency printing by the Federal Reserve over the last 20 years. In these 20 years we have experienced 3 major economic crises: the Internet Bubble, the Great Recession, and now the global Covid-19 pandemic. In all of them, printing money has been the solution. Today a month away from an important presidential election the DXY is a month away from resuming a downtrend, GOLD a month away from resuming an uptrend, and Bitcoin a month away from starting a new bull run. The policy of printing money and devaluing our dollar has been the standard for decades now and presidential candidate Biden hopes to continue that legacy. All eyes will be on this election in November and it will greatly influence the movement of hard currencies and stable stores of value. At this critical economic pivot point it would be prudent of anyone to hold cash, wait, and continue to watch Biden, Gold, & Bitcoin.
TVC:DXY
by seanthomasryan
2
What could go wrong with the yield curve ?New Fed policy will allow inflation to run above its 2% target. To achieve higher inflation the Fed is is expected to hold short-term rates very low for a long time. A sudden steepening of the yield curve after an inversion almost always coincides with recession. Aggressive expansion of the money supply through fiscal and Fed policy has led to concerns of rising inflation. The US government needs to fund relief packages and pump money into a weak economy. Excess supply of longer-dated Treasury supply hitting the market may put additional pressure on prices and keep long dated yields moving higher. Institutions may aim to unload expensive long-term Treasuries onto the market which could depress prices and increase yields. Investors may soon demand higher yields on longer-term debt. But are we ready for higher back-end rates & a steeper curve? The inflation break-even rate between 10 year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and regular 10 year Treasuries hit 1.8% last month, the highest since February.
TVC:US10Y
by dime
1
The velocity of money is plunging so let's make some coin off itHardly surprising though, this has taken place whenever GDP contracts & unemployment increases as it certainly will this year. I think one would suspect that this could lead to risk of deflationary effects - which I know sounds odd when one thinks and sees first hand the rampant money printing and radical expansion of money supply, and inflation increasing. I am still heavily biased towards inflation arising over the next few years, with rates eventually rising to combat inflation - but I do want to be on the lookout for any hints as swiftly as possible that my ideology may be wrong. I suspect this drop within the velocity of money is especially pronounced in hospitality industries, restaurants, hotels, aerospace, airlines, tourist destinations - where capital is not being exchanged as freely. We also have unemployment up so some individuals simply are being much more wary of purchasing wants, with potential needs still needing to be met on the horizon. I think mfg's as well have had supply issues coupled with demand issues, with inventories only now ramping back up. With the low demand, and low supply this is a sour recipe that creates less opportunities for transactions, again hurting the velocity of money. What does all of this mean? I think one needs to carefully weigh the proper strategies in the event inflation or deflation where to occur. In the event of the dreaded stagflation again, the writing will be more clear if that is to occur, but again we need to plan accordingly and develop strategies for each. A simple strategy I am doing even outside of the fixed income corporate debt/Div yield strategies etc is within actual real estate. If one were to acquire a home in this environment and inflationary affects play out, you essentially get to double dip on the inflationary affects in a favorable manner. the devaluation of the dollar will be an effect of the inflation. What does this mean for your mortgage? The dollar amount of the debt side of the mortgage will decrease in value, relative to the purchasing power of the dollars within the debt. The debt itself gets eroded away from inflation. Very favorable if you have debt. We want equity with debt of course though. And much more equity relative to the volume of debt. The equity of the home will actually be continuing to rise because the value of dollars continuing to loose value will require more dollars to purchase the same amount of equity - meaning the equity increases in terms of dollars. So inflation will result in the loan decreasing in a dollar weighted comparison, while the equity in the home will increase because of the dollar's devaluation. Equity relative to a home is one thing, but this comparison can be made with equities (stocks) as well, but I think the home comparison may be helpful in getting my logic communicated clearly. Again, this does not mean to go wild longing equities - just like you do not want to go wild and start buying junk houses in the middle of Antarctica We need to be tacticians with finesse ***If you have a great strategy please be sure to share it with me.***
FRED:WM2NS
by ZenMode
7
Crypto VS Dollar: Are we bearish soon?So to begin with, a negative dollar means a few things; As the stock market valuations are pegged to the dollar, a weaker dollar will actually PUSH the DOLLAR value of stocks up, so technically the stocks are sometimes not rising on actual value but adjusting their real value to the new dollar rate. Therefore, this holds true for Bitcoin and Ethereum, if the dollar falls in value, the price of bitcoin has to rise to adjust as Bitcoin /Ethereum has not lost any value, however, we can expect the same adjustment when the price of the dollar rises; unless external circumstances create new market conditions such as the Corona Virus Outbreak. This may mean a bearish turnover for the crypto market, although we may not want to accept it. You are all welcome to share your thoughts and opinions on this, and please SHARE & LIKE -Megalodon COINBASE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHBTC BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by BoSukas
1
Accessing FRED data via TradingViewHey guys. As a macro trader, I really need to look at a wide variety of indicators and market data, whether economic or price based. However, I HATE many of the other charts that are out there. So I'd like to introduce you to a little known trick. Have you heard of Quandl? They provide alternate data sets for loads of different types of things, whether it's COT data, corporate debt, carbon emissions... you name it, you can probably find it. The problem is that many of these cost. Enter FRED, or 'Federal Reserve Economic Data', compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. They provide data on their website, but the charts aren't very intuitive and you can't manipulate, compare or add in other assets to try to visualise a thesis. So, there's a great solution. In the chart above, I have shown the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity. This is an interest rate spread - and specifically, it's identifying a steepener trade (this shows that the yield on longer term bonds are rising faster than shorter term bonds, so could be indicative of an increase in inflation expectations). So what I did was go onto FRED (give it a Google), copy the data code (T10Y3M), head over the Quandl (again, give it a Google), then pop that code into the search box. You'll then see the data set pop up. Click through and you will see a standard boring orange line chart. But over to the right, you'll see 'Excel/TradingView' buttons. Click TradingView and you can view the data in TV charts! FRED data is all totally free and it's pretty comprehensive. Check it out and let me know what you think.
FEducation
by FinkPro
30
Equities and their relationship to CPI InflationBull markets tend to follow a drop in CPI, once the deflationary relationship ceases and goes back into inflationary mode. As it takes additional "devalued currency" to acquire the consistent amount of the equity in relation to it. In addition, with low rates, this creates opportunities to take on debt (with equity as well) such as a home, as the loan itself will be eroded away in terms of the dollars within the loans purchasing power. While the underlying asset will appreciate in comparison to the devalued/inflated dollars relative to it. So may be time to buy that home you were considering!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ZenMode
The dollar looks particularly weak todayDollar appears to be forming a bear flag. Again - great for commodities & great for equities. Not saying you should long a particular stock or commodity just because of this - but there are major ramifications for a weak dollar. Imports get more expensive & exports get cheaper. If you are short the dollar, and that double bottom gets retested & breaks (which of course has happened before) we are going to see a significant and straight forward drop till next support is realized.
TVC:DXYShort
by ZenMode
28
The Secrets to Forex & Why You Were Bullied at Trader HighSchoolThis is the second half of the deliverable on fundamentals. It covers content you don't normally learn about in the retail trading loserverse, stuff that is often paywalled behind shill "courses" or dismissed as unnecessary by wealth gurus. I'm here to short those paywalls with my appropriately priced FREE knowledge. Take everything in stride, this business wasn't meant to be mastered or understood overnight. You don't think they give the Fisher accounts of the world out to any tryhard with a computer and a chart? Conversely. Don't worry, too much knowledge is the best problem you can have. Part 1: Modern Chartfare When you started trading, you were probably 360 no-scoping your trades. You probably had a few win-streaks, and then a demoralizing losing streak. You felt your win/loss ratio falling and you sought out new strategies, new weapons. So you turned to the internet for ideas, like you would for anything. The omnipresence of advertising and social media caught your attention first. You turned to a metric shitload of wealth gurus. Instagram, telegram, pictogram, etc. Sure, the bros pitching this stuff look like older versions of the kids that bullied you in school, but now they're here to make you money, right? Nice try nitwit. Now you're making a new kind of losing investment. This is an important piece of "risk management," and I wasn't sure where to fit it in. But those educators, ARE your competitors. Your investment isn't a potential return, its accounts recievable to Guru LLC. When you make enough money trading, you don't need to shill services for income. Remember, forex is a meta marketplace itself, AKA a place to trade services . Most of which are scams or overpriced. Wealth and warfare go hand in hand. In capitalism, the true battlefield is your bank account, the true center of gravity is your mindspace. The weapons are languages, visuals, platforms, technologies.. And I can tell, trust me, that most of you are easily exploited noncombatants, unarmed and unable to defend yourself or stake a claim to survival in this eternal warzone. Step one to making wealth is protecting whatever amount (no matter how pathetic) of wealth you currently have. Step two is to stop chasing paywalled wealth gurus who draw no income from trading, or any profit that do is embarrassingly mediocre. Greed makes it too easy for the fishermen these days. But wealth that lasts is quiet and deals in many faces. You have to go looking for it, it doesn't try to find you. That's why I'm not selling you on overnight wealth, I'm buying you a lifetime of better risk taking behavior. You need to stop being a wierdo who idolizes mediocre profits. Part 2: Lunch is NOT for WIMPs Most of the information in this article is available to find online for free with enough effort, it's just not prioritized by the get-rich shills on major social media platforms. That's the problem. You're still getting bullied out of your lunch money. I have a counter-offer, I'll buy you lunch instead. At the conclusion of this series in a few months, I will launch a free, private signal service (based on one of my own profitable strategy systems), to build a new type of community, and to help demonstrate the effectiveness of my risk ethos promulgated across this series. I'll get into earning details in a later article, but those master accounts are traded by my hand and produce a minimum positive number of pips per month. Bottom line, it's enough for lunch at Dorsia. But it's not enough to replace a job. Answers to all questions will be provided when the time comes, and performance will be fully transparent. There will be rules for the community and the private signal, rules that may not make sense at first or seem unfamiliar, but everything will be free, always. I don't need your money, the federal reserve has given me plenty. Instead, I will 'trick' you into prioritizing the right things, to protect and develop your networth and lifeworth. From this new kind of community, I will eventually select a few unique individuals to inherit and run my forex trading systems, so I can focus on business creation. In the meantime, you should be utilizing free websites like FxBlue or Psyquation to manage and study your account risk overtime. You'll be able to see clear differences in the before and after comparison corresponding to your trading experience before finishing this series vs afterwards. Part 3: Factoring Events Alright, this will be a bit disjointed but let's start the race to the bottom. Some investors will pitch their fund or their style as event-driven trading. I simply call event-driven trading by another phrase, 'risk management.' That's all it is. EVENTS ARE THE ONLY FORM OF VOLATILITY THAT MATTERS. The priority for your risk management across long-term timeframes is not entirely explained in simple volatility equations. I have briefly mentioned this in prior articles. But the investing boomerisms about volatility are right and wrong. Volatility is the key to risk management, right, but only if you understand the threat origination of volatility itself, which most don't. Which is why they lose. Volatility is the rapid transition of fear into security or security into fear. The identifiable rapid transition EVENTS are driven by market psychology (the players within). And those rapid transition events CAN be predicted by preparing your trades for predicted/scheduled future EVENTS (and sometimes ongoing events). We talked a lot about geopolitics and some economic events in the last article. But there are others. You don't really need to know a lot about them, you just need to know that they are predictable events, which means meaningful volatility, which means risk management. You don't need to be an economist or try to out-analyze these events (though that might lead to some edge), because you can safely assume that the forecasts are already priced in. You can assume that the majority of major market players did their own research or got access to better research. Tough to out-edge those guys. There's a reason they own the porn industry. "Thank God I don't have to use my brain too much." No, don't even. I would rather not create anymore dumb rich people, we got enough already and boy are they big liabilities. Part 4: Losers Wouldn't Know A forecast isn't a foresight, its a guesstimate. We talked a lot about the inherent delusion built into speculation. Obviously, these guesstimates COULD be wildly wrong. The actuals could be 5 standard deviations away from the expert consensus estimate. Therein lies the potential for major volatility. Forget the digits, I want you to look at the econ calendar as opportunites for entry or exits in your trading system, and ignore the estimate. Or, if you already are exposed to the pair, I want your to prepare your position for these events ("prepare" will be further discussed). Both of these routes can constitute proper risk management in conjunction with key technicals, which is the focus of the next section. There are a ton of events that don't appear on the econ schedule though. Only the cool kids know about these. We did geopolitics already, the tough unscheduled stuff. But there is more to discuss. END OF MONTH + END OF QUARTER REBALANCING It's hard to predict cause commercials and institutions use broad cross-asset reasoning to balance portfolios, but generally the mindset is derived from a need to hedge across the major/minor/cross currencies (g10). The safest bet is to just expect volatility, and therefore prepare your risk management in concert. Dont spend cognitive resources trying to predict direction. Just look at the Biden campaign. Now that's how you conserve cognitive resources. LONDON FIX There are multiple fixes, but the London fix is the biggest and most relevant for majors because most of the money and most of the villains have congregated there. It occurs at 4PM City time (London time) and it's basically used as a benchmark for NON-SPOT market operations, like agreements/forwards between companies or branches within companies to convert currency to meet payment responsibilities like payroll, invoices, debts, etc. That was determined to be the "fairest" way, instead of negotiating over spot prices. The exact exchange values are determined with less oversight than you would hope but usually as an average of price range around the 4PM period. It just means that you have another volatility roadbump as a retail trader. For the powerful and wealthy, it might mean other opportunities. We don't always play the same game, even if it seems like it. The fix is even crazier during those end of month rebalancing events. Consider them gravitationally attracted. WITCHING HOURS This is the period when Wall Street performs satanic rituals for profitable insight. You probably won't have to worry too much about this now that we got Maxwell behind bars, and I really should've just covered it more directly in the seasonality article. This hour is just the last hour of trading on the third friday of every month (unless it's a holiday), where some options and some futures expire. The lead up to the hour itself can involve unusual price action from complex arbitrage. There is recent interest in resolving this inefficient period by developing special rollover/settlement options. CME Group (the largest futures group) is working on this, so I wouldn't do too much of a deep dive looking for edge because it might not exist for much longer. At most, you should just remember to increase risk oversight on the third friday of each month, and that a few months (March, June, Sept, Decem) have larger expiry loads, so be extra careful. That's the speedrun. Part 5: Steak Salesmen Trump tweets. Now in the steak salesman era of American politics, Presidents also like to hype or influence economic information, and significant portions of the market will react. You gotta follow the man in the OO if you want the complete global macro coverage. We have less than a year left of insured Trump tweets, and a speculative 4 more years of Trump tweets. I do consider a high probabilty of a Trump reelection, 70%+. Twitter market influence is here to stay either way, though it would be more subdued without Glormphf. This ties into a reliable source of fundamental certainty, which is the dependency of timezones and market newsflow. That is, big US market newsflow happens during the business day, by and large. Everyone is awake, everyone is at work. This is obvious but useful nevertheless. Lets say there is some kind of unscheduled macro leak, like a major Korean newspaper claims that a CCP trade minister said that TRADE DEAL PHASE 1 might be off the table.. the market will react poorly and all of this will occur overnight for the US and for EU. However, when the sun shines on that side of the world, we will get an update, and usually a correction, that calms markets. You can use that reaction cycle as a tradeable pattern in future instances. This type of pattern happens all the time, a few times a month at least. Part 6: The Confusion of Traders COT data. The Contusion of Traders data is the most freely available source of information that approximates open interest and institutional sentiment in forex. You probably know that real volume data is available for most financial assets on major exchanges (like stocks), but due to the derivative and OTC nature of forex, this real information on liquidity, sentiment, and volume is priveledged knowledge held privately by individuals and institutions to generate edge and to fiddle with spreads. COT data is a close but not exact representation of this liquidity and sentiment via commodity futures contracts held by trading funds, institutions of a market-making nature, or brokers. Unfortunately, this data is compiled and released weekly, and not in real-time. So it has a 1 week lag, and more during holidays. However, it is still very useful from a fundamental perspective for long-term traders. OI (open interest) shows DEMAND. You can find this data via google, and there are few dedicated people on a certain factory related forex site that put out excellent weekly COT reviews. Generally speaking, you want to look for strong competing trends between speculators and commercials. You will want to track your risk management to that trend. Quite frankly, you rarely want to trade against a strong COT data-derived trend unless you are making a special type of carry trade. If you want to bet against the trend, you incur the same risk-managment responsibilities of a commercial (deep pocket institutions, money makers), except you remain a pathetic and shallow pocketed retail trader. This is counter-intuitive because your capital is vastly limited both in size and use. Okay let's circle back to riskon and riskoff and tie them into econ events. Part 7: Securities Industry Essentials Exam The stock market is a critical component of fundamentals because it serves as a reliable indicator of riskon vs riskoff. Money considers the share market (like NASDAQ/DOW/SP500/NIKKEI, etc) risky. I find this absolutely clown-tier in the current year, considering Central Banking debt/asset strategies. Digression. It considers other equities like corpo bonds, debentures, warrants, etc, as accessories to share performance, at least when looking at drivers for riskon sentiment. Unfortunately, the stock market runs through exchanges that do not operate on a 24/7 basis, unlike forex. The old world still functions on sleep. Imagine sleeping when you could be making money. You can alleviate this issue by looking at the futures market, where you can follow different stock markets while live exchange data feeds are stopped. You need to be mindful of which stock market to follow based on time of day. Recall that NA and EU represent most of the influence on sentiment only while live. Commodities like energies and metals are perhaps even clearer examples of risk sentiment. With the exception of gold and silver, most commodities are riskon, and act as a signal for demand within economies. Since economies are the underlying to markets, markets interpret commodity demand (which generally reflects as higher prices), as a sign that economies are growing. Copper in particular because of its valience application in much of the developed, tech-dependent world. Part 8: The Pyramid Club National bonds were discussed in prior articles. Bond PRICE rises (because demand increases) during riskoff periods. Now, this is only true for SAFEHAVEN countries. Well-managed, top-twenty economies. This is because demand for a national bond can drop if investors think the country is at risk of debt restructuring. Though, as prior mentioned in the carry article, this issue is more political than it is economic in nature, and a bailout is always available. It might be easier to think of national bonds as 'loans' citizens can give to governments. Writing a loan for a trustworthy debtor could be an economically benefitial thing, but vice versa for a debtor who is struggling. In general, as a forex trader, just focus on US national bonds. Note that there are varity of national bond types, but the distinction between them is less relevant than the overall yield and price conditions. It only becomes relevant if you have a lot of money to invest, which we all know you don't have. Now what about yields? Sadly, as bond prices rise, the yield (added interest value) drops. Though in the grand scheme of things... yields are pretty much in net decline these past 10-15 years, which are the only kinds of timeframes they are truly relevant in anyway, except as a sentiment measure with glance value. Obviously, in a riskon environment, more investors, and therefore more money, shift into riskier avenues; so demand drops and bond prices drop. Now, there are other factors that influence the pricing of national bond yields and other country-level assets, namely interest rates set by a central bank, yield curve issues, and other money operations between the central bank and private banks. As mentioned in the article on carry trades, the importance of staying up to date on central banking activity and rationale is paramount in the world of forex. I'm not going to give a 21st Century Central Banking ECON 301 course here; just research the history of Gold Man Sachs' corporate management and you'll be ahead of the game. Also. VIX is another simple and popular tool for measuring the riskon vs riskoff environment, though as I have already warned in prior articles, volatility is not synonymous with risk due to its vulnerability to black swans, and risk management based on traditional volatility measures is not sufficient. And keep in mind that VIX has a sleep schedule. Part 9: Gekkos & Goblins It's easy to get lost in all the words, statements, claims, projections, predictions you get from experts, twitter, reports, releases, news, and media. But you have to stay laser focused on the flow of cash itself. Adding 'value' or 'growth' and removing 'liabilities' or 'obstacles' are nice terms, but they don't exist in reality. You can't put them in your pocket. You can't buy a house with them. Remember, ultimately it's all about the bucks, the rest is just conversation. Where ever there are billions sloshing around, there lies your market. You just need to watch the money move to understand the risk transitions. Though, don't follow it too closely, you might see something that was meant to be hidden. Part 10: Most Successful People were Bullied Society has an odd way of bullying people into conformity (and therefore mediocrity). But if you weather the mental pressure to conform, you end up outside the predicted plot. A place where no one can reach you. When making money is involved, that's usually a good thing. The last man standing is usually the risk management specialist, yet the biggest risk is not taking any risk at all. A paradox? You're not trying to avoid all loss, you're trying to be the best at managing loss. You can't be a risk management specialist without RISK being involved somewhere. You have to suffer the bullying before you can step outside of the plot. "Most men take few risks, and then they all die in the end anyway." The interesting characters in GOT died before the show ended, because they took interesting risks. If they didn't, then HBO wouldn't have made any money. The show was profitable because unexpected events drove interesting storylines, the writers weren't afraid to kill people off, break their paradigms, or run them through intense pain and embarrassment. You are HBO and your trades need to be like Littlefinger, for instance. He spent a lot of time worshipping risk and chaos, but wasn't he the most meticulous character in the show? What about Tyrion? He appeared to keep a low profile for most of the show, but actually took huge risks. Confused? Here's the sum of these analogies: You will get bullied by the market. But if you can break your mental paradigms, kill off bad strategies, and survive the pain and embarrassment, you'll be the last man standing. Well, technically I'll be there, wondering what took you so long.
by CountofCoins
Comments on #Gold vs #Inflation 1976-1980Blue Line is the Fed Funds Rate. Rates typically will rise when the fed needs to curb inflation. Inflation here would essentially be a chart darting up 44% within the TF of 1976-1980. Essentially a $1 greenback in 1976 had the purchasing power of $1.45 in 1980. While gold futures rose over 500% within this TF. With rates depressed right now I do think that is incredibly bullish for gold as it will make a market environment where USD looses value and the fed raises rates to offset that. Rates rising on their own does not make gold rise, it is rates rising to curb inflation that makes gold rise and the purchasing power is eroded against the commodity. Think of the gold ounce as a constant, and the USD as the variable bouncing around it, and as inflation rises- purchasing power decreases which results in additional dollars needed to purchase a comparable amount of gold in return.
COMEX:GC1!
by ZenMode
S&P 500: Six real signs of an upcoming crash.Hi traders, Here's a quick overview of the main reasons why the S&P500 could enter a one-way street in the coming months. Any comments are appreciated. Thanks. 1. The index is less than 5% away from record highs, yet US unemployment rates are sky-rocketing, the country has officially entered a recession, and other regions will likely follow. Global growth forecasts have been lowered to -5% (the lowest since WW2) and corona-fears haven't dissipated yet. Company profit margins have been badly hit and many will have to close doors. So what is the S&P500 doing there at above 3,000? 2. The put-call ratio reached marginal highs of 1.97 (a year earlier it stood at 1.06), signaling extreme greed in the markets. 3. The Buffet Indicator, which divides the total market cap with the US GDP , stands at extremely overvalued levels of 150%. During the dot-com bubble, the indicator had a value of 130%, and just before the 2007-2009 Great Recession, a value of around 108%. 4. The Q Ratio, measuring the market value of equities vs their net worth, is at all-time highs . The last time it reached record levels was just before the dot-com bubble and just before the 2008 economic downturn. Sounds familiar? 5. We're currently in the longest bull-run ever in history . The previous longest bull-run lasted 120 months (10 years), from 1991 to 2001. 6. And finally, looking at a typical bubble chart, the March uptrend resembles much that of "bull trap" and "return to normal" phase. Please hit the "LIKE" button to support our free work. Thanks!
TVC:SPXShort
by MujkanovicFX
4
Cash is King, Bull run incoming! M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1 With this increase in cash flow & asset holding, I wouldn't expect a bear cycle anytime soon!
FRED:WM2NSLong
by jfs2152
Complete annihilation of the United States: Housing & Free Stuff"Defund the police" millions say. "Defund the government" 3 and a half people say. Free stuff for everybody! A republican congress might veto the budget but it will still end up huge, just not as huge. A family or a business, when they are broke or out of money, they will reduce spending, they will only buy essentials. The government does the opposite. The harsher the times, the more it spends. If the government was a family which house just burned down and lost their jobs, and had nothing left, this is what they would do: - Take 6 digits loans to buy a new car, and a second one. - Go on vacations - Hire a private tutor for their kids - Eat at expensive restaurants and waste - Go on shooping sprees out of boredom, buy useless stuff that will end up in the trash can Not even exagerating. The reason people don't all lose their minds is because it is slightly abstract, just enough for them to not see what's going on. Marxist students fight this battle to get more money spent on "learnding". Did you know the USA have 1 of the highest spending per student? Only Switzerland spends slightly more (less than 10%), Norway used to spend more but now spends significantly less, and the only country to really spend more is Luxembourg which spends around 60% more. USA GDP per capita: $63,000 Norway GDP per capita: $82,000 Switzerland GDP per capita: $83,000 Luxembourg GDP per capita: $117,000 (2018 numbers) Switzerland spends slightly more per student or the same and it has a 32% bigger GDP per person. Luxembourg spends ~60% more but it has twice the GDP per person! Oh and fun fact, more people go to university in the USA than in those countries, Norway too. "Super socialist" Norway sends less people to university, and spends something like 30% less than the USA, all while having a much higher GDP per capita, and let's not talk about a higher surplus lmao biggest wealth fund in the world while the USA have a gigantic black hole in their finances. They're really running the country in the worse way possible. Another fun fact, did you know that "poor kids" that went to university used to pay for it by taking summer jobs? And then government stepped in to get votes, guarenteed loans, spent massive amounts, and all this did was cause people to require a diploma to flip burgers, and of course university said "great, we can afford this we wanted and that and this" price went way up. All this pointless crap they are learning, apart from lawyers doctors some engineers, it's useless. It is a bad investment. If it was not it would reflect in the economy, for example there would be less inequality not more. And their voters of course, they ask for more of the stupid stuff that does not work! "We want more of these things that caused problems"! Ye I bet their universities don't teach them that, no conflict of interest here. "You must protest to get more money to pay us". In particular the student age group - which happens to be the age group that falls the most for phishing scams by far, pure coincidence - they are fighting with all they have to get more money for universities, so professors can buy diamond teeth. The next president, no matter who he is, will continue those disastrous policies, and run the country to the ground. Housing bubble, student loan bubble, spending & bond bubble, stock market bubble. The only hope is deflation. But they want to fight that no matter what "infinity QE". Big brains. There is a report on government budget, for 20 or 30 years they have been copy pasting the same block of text, it's so funny, in which they say that the current policies are unsustainable xd The top 0.01 percent, 16,000 families, had annual income of say $30 million, and wealth of maybe $400 million. So the total is 500 billion a year in earnings pre tax, and a total wealth of $6 trillion. Can't really tax that wealth thought, how would they do it, confiscate their stocks and make a sale to foreign nations to get 20% out over 5 years? (since selling crashes the market). In 2018, the total personal income earned in the United States was $17.6 trillion. Federal tax revenues are around 3.5 trillion for the past few years with income making almost $2T. State taxes amount to $1T. How can they get out of this university scam? They send half of the population to university, and they get brainwashed by universities that want more money. How to break the cycle? There might be more riots in the next 2 years, I noted some Minneapolis property prices to compare with later on. Can't short sell afaik sadly. The country is just going to implode in the next few years. West Europe that isn't in the same situation at all will be influenced because of the country big octopus arms, and probably have lots of demands to officials, and protests, and riots, regardless of a totally different situation, due to sheep mentality and low IQ. In the 30s all of Europe countries (or most maybe) nationalised big companies, and it stayed like this with the exception of the NAZI (that were planning to nationalise more), they privatized, it seemed to work for them since they conquered all of Europe. There is not a ton of info on this, of course every one is drooling and studying Hitler or the war, but there is nearly no interest for NAZI policies, or the conditions that led to their elections or to the war... Either president will continue the same disastrous policies as I said, spend spend spend, bail out and/or nationalise, the only 2 outcomes I see will be either go communist and broke and default and become Argentina (Venezuela to be fair), or go full NAZI and deport. In 1930 to 1932 Germany zentrum chancellor Heinrich Brüning which was a financial expert made deflationary policies, with big tax hikes and reducing spending, probably was too violent (they always go extreme about everything) and came too late. He had no majority but Hindenburg used emergency powers to make him chancellor. Germany was in trouble before the depression, in particular thanks to the galaxy brain versailles treaty. He tried to pass a bill to make a necessary reform of the Reich finances, which was rejected by the SPD & KPD & some NSDAP members. Other Europe countries ponzi'd germany, they abandonned gold and devalued their currency while germany did not (and so got scammed). Brüning had no majority and was no able to do what he wanted. So he tried to dissolve the Reichtag. 1930, early one, before Brüning was able to pass his bills, the NAZI party gained 18% seats which was huge, and SPD and KPD had broken up around that time, with later on the KPD Antifa arm fighting the SPD which they now called traitors and hated. Brüning knew deflation would temporarly worsen the economy but then fix it. It was the cure with a short term negative effect. Problem was, it came too late, and germans were already pissed. Before he started the program the NSDAP had alreayd gotten big (from less than 3% to 18.25%). And with deflation, debt gets worse. What countries want to do is inflate the debt away. In 1932 Brüning resigned because his policies of giving land for free to unemployed workers made Hidenburg & prussian landlords angry, so the president stopped signing emergency decrees for him. To fight the NAZI he tried to restore monarchy, and had a majority but Hinderburg would only accept if Emperor Wilhelm II was called back from exile, but foreign nations & socdems went "no not him". After Brüning, Franz von Papen (independant centre/conservative) lifted the ban on the NAZI SA which had been placed in early 1932 because of riots (hmmmm), can't find more about the riots, history forgot... After the ban was lifted thought there were plenty of violent riots involving antifa (hmmmmm), the police (oooooooh), the SS & SA (interesting). Oh, did I mention the SA & Antifa considered themselves revolutionary (Germany had just dropped its monarchy)? Well anyway, Hinderburg died, and then Hitler became Reich Cancellor and Reich president. Hitler, to improve the economy, privatized, placed more tariffs on imports (previous chancellors had started it he continued), looted jews gold, bullied private companies to give more jobs & raise wages, suspended the gold standard, brought parental planning, free healthcare, education standards, gave generous subsidies for agriculture and small businesses, enforced capital controls, controlled commodity prices, decided what the interest rates would be, well basically from what history books say he ran the country like "capitalist" countries run their countries today. Most of the recovery if not all, came from looting jews & giving their stuff to "germans", and also just the economy healing itself over time. And then he went to war, and ran bigger and bigger deficits, and raised taxes on everyone, and lost. Germany adopted a free market approach (em west germany of course) in 1948, abolishing price controls, to cut it short undoing Hitler economics. Consumer goods reappeared literally overnight on the open market. People went back to work since what they would get paid would actually be worth something. "By the mid-1950s, West Germany had risen from the ashes to become Western Europe’s economic powerhouse. The contrast with Britain, which moved in a socialist direction after the war and didn’t abolish rationing until 1954, was stark." Germany progressively & slowly went back towards more of a control economy since then. This depression has the potential to be the greatest, rivalled only by the great depression of the late middle ages, which was spiced by the black death, you know the thing that decimated half of Europe population. "We have to save lives". Idiots. The industrial era will end like the middle ages ended back then. I wonder what caused the giga depression of the 14th century? Oh right, decline of the church, big state control, massive spending, huge taxes in particular on the rich, and currency debasement. Sigh.
AMEX:VNQ
by MrRenev
5