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LYV Long. Covid news related positive sectors breakoutLive Nation Entertainment Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. is an entertainment company, which engages in producing, marketing and selling live concerts for artists via global concert pipe. It operates through the following segments: Concerts, Sponsorship & Advertising and Ticketing. The Concerts segment involves in the promotion of live music events in owned or operated and in rented third-party venues. The Sponsorship and Advertising segment offers sales force that creates and maintains relationships with sponsors through a combination of international, national, and local opportunities that allow businesses to reach customers through concerts, venue, festivals and ticketing assets, including advertising on websites. The Ticketing segment includes selling of tickets for events on behalf of clients and retains a fee, or service charge for these services. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Beverly Hills, CA. Average Analyst Price Target : $101 : Moderate Buy Hedge Fund Trend: ▼ Hedge Funds Decreased Holdings by 6.2M Shares Last Quarter News Sentiment : Neutral Technicals : Positive With the news of the pills from Merck showing signs of low hospitalization cases and deaths in the trials, most of the sectors/stocks that were beaten down with economy slowdown/closures like casinos. gamings, airlines and cruise liners saw a surge of investor interest. Most stocks in these sectors tested and broke through important resistance zones. With sector rotation that seems to happening in the broader indices, these sectors may well see a rally for sometime and news related moves are expected. Overall price action on both Daily and Weekly candles looks great and back with the bulls. I would like to buy the dips and long stock as long as price remains outside the band on Daily candle close basis.
NYSE:LYVLong
by LoveForCharts
March 24 low thru today = bullgasmIn March 2020, the stock market melted down due to a run on securities, which started in the repo markets, dollar-funding markets, and entered every market. This was a liquidity crisis that unfolded faster than the world had ever seen before. Then, governments stabilized the markets with monetary and fiscal policy. Today, liquidity looks OK. Banks look OK. The economy bounced upward in Q2 and Q3 (although I think this was more technical due to pent up demand and stimulus). With liquidity OK, some are calling the coast clear. Liquidity is OK because governments have been able to engage in QE, essentially printing money and borrowing to stimulate their economies. But bad things can still happen to undermine confidence in currency, which would likely cause another run on the markets. Here are 3 bad things to think about: Bad Thing #1. China could invade Taiwan, calling the US alliance system into question. (Bearish USD) People want USD. Why? Because it's what people use. Why? Because it's backed by the faith of the US government. Why does that matter? Because the US government maintained what Peter Zeihan calls "the global order" or the alliance system. As a result of WWII and the Cold War, the US bribed and prodded other countries to get along as best they could. The resulted in an era of continuity that allowed trade to flourish. Everyone did business with the US and bought dollars for this. When countries did business with each other, they also used dollars. SCENARIO 1. US does nothing about China invading Taiwan. Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Australia, India, and our other partners in the region would realize they're on their own. This would signal the American abandonment of the global order. That would mean less security on the seas, less international trade and less demand for dollars. With less demand for dollars, the US Treasury wouldn't be able to print as many dollars without moving the dollar down. The consequences of QE would devalue the dollar quickly. QE would have to be reduced, and then individuals and companies would be forced to bail themselves out by going through bankruptcy or modifying loans or pumping the bakes on spending. Scenario 2. US goes to war with China over invading Taiwan. In this scenario, the US government defends the alliance system. But then has to focus on fighting a war. The economy becomes a war-driven economy, with factories producing things needed for the war. Stimulus checks - bye bye. All resources go toward crushing China. Meanwhile, the economy stagnates because anything that isn't war-driven becomes non-essential. The record levels of corporate debt (yes, the same companies on SPX), would be called into question by bond investors (great job, bank passing the risk onto the bond market due to post-2009 financial rules). That would mean a run on US debts, which would of course, mean lights out for stocks – since stocks are give last priority in a bankruptcy. Bad Thing #2. US companies become insolvent What is all of this chatter on the internet that Biden's tax plan wouldn't make much of an impact on the economy overall? In aggregate, maybe not. But when it comes to the specific companies on SPX with high debt service payments and low EBITDA, higher Taxes would suffocate earnings growth to the point of insolvency and push stock prices down. Bad Thing #3. No more debt financing There's all this talk about "low interest rates are causing investors to pour into stocks because it's the only area that will get a return." If that's the case, then why would anyone want to loan companies money? Why not just buy their stock – an action that, most of the time, results in no inflows of cash to the companies? In other words, fine – no more credit. We'll just trade your stock. And then companies will be left to figure out how to service their massive amounts of debt while figuring out how to grow revenue. They'll likely make more job cuts, which will spiral into less consumer spending and we know where that leads. The same idea applies to an inflationary scenario. If there's inflation, why should I settle for today's low bond yields? Inflation ticking up would either drive up real interest rates or dry up supply of capital for bonds. For SPX companies, many of which require massive inflows of debt financing to grow, this wouldn't help them grow earnings to say the least. There are many more bad things that are likely to happen like no stimulus before the election and then political drama dragging it out until February 2021, No Deal Brexit, CLOs (oh they're doing just fine – really?), and many more wars raging across the world that could accidentally drag superpowers into them. WWI started by an accident. In 1914, British Foreign Sec., Sir. Edward Grey, said "The Scene has never looked so calm." By the summer of 1914, Chamberlain was announcing over the radio that Britain has gone to war. It took 1 month for Europe to go from peace to all-out war.
SP:SPXShort
by Cowston
3
S&P 500 - A Bearish Outlook Heading Into 2020Here is my thought process behind why I have a bearish outlook heading into 2020 - please note that this is the second time that I have ever published analysis and this is just me synthesizing a bunch of ideas. I'm going to start off with the lighter ideas before moving on to the heavier ideas... 1) We are in the late stage of the economic cycle... this is the longest expansion of the US economy since records began. Common sense dictates that we will enter a recession soon. 2) Keeping this in mind, let's look at the state of politics around the world. We have protests and riots in HK (recently a protestor was shot for the first time), we have Brexit which has both Germany and the UK on the brink of recession. The US and China trade war has not improved at all and is constantly seeing tit-for-tats. Finally, literally the other day the US was given the go-ahead by the WTO for $7.5 billion in tariffs on the EU in response to their 15-year long row over the subsidizing of the rival aircraft companies Boeing and Airbus. 3) In recent surveys, over half of economists in the US believe that a recession will hit the US in 2020. The market has also seen the yield curve invert, providing a stark warning (although this usually takes at least 12 months to materialize, this is a bad indicator). 4) There is a ridiculous bearish RSI divergence on the charts, with Fibonacci Time Zones pointing towards significant price action at the start or end of 2020. I believe this is because this cycle was pumped and overrated, running on the crack cocaine of financial markets: Quantitative Easing. 5) Recessions usually occur when there is a sharp fall in liquidity in the cash markets (referring to bank deposits and not trade execution liquidity). In recent times we have seen a bipartisan deal passed through in the US which mandated the US Treasury to "aggressively build up" cash reserves. After lowering the debt ceiling the Treasury plans on borrowing an additional $433 billion during this quarter (about $275 billion more than it had previously estimated) which is roughly ten times (1,000%) more than what the Treasury borrowed last quarter ($40 billion). This would cause global dollar liquidity to dry up fast (foreign nations and banks use excess deposits and reserves to purchase these meaning dollars flow out of the economy into the Treasury). 6) Continuing on from the last point, not only do we have dollar liquidity vanishing in the global economy but we have negative dollar swap spread (those lending USD via currency swaps want higher premiums). This is only getting deeper and deeper. Interestingly, the Bank of International Settlements found that cross-currency swap spreads act as a more accurate measure of struggle in the financial markets than the VIX. This shortage of dollars (highlighted by the premium being charged to lend dollars in swaps) comes at a time when the global economy is already weakening thus is making financial markets more fragile (turning to IMF reports on muted inflation and weaker final demand for goods and services) also referring to previous points Seeing and analyzing all these factors, the future doesn't look too bright. Disappointing economic data continues to plague our minds. As the Fed continues to cut interest rates they are only giving debt-laden companies one more sigh of relief which will only knock the inevitable crash further down the road when neither corporations nor the government can cope with it (they're throwing away all their ammunition and shooting themselves before the battle has even started). The drop to come will be harder and more brutal than 2008 because asset prices are currently inflated at incomprehensible levels due to quantitative easing as well as the Fed having little headroom to cut rates further. You could only imagine what is to come in countries with much less head-room for monetary policy than the US... What's next? Helicopter money!? Disclosure: I hold shares in: XSPS IGLT O IBTM
TVC:SPXShort
by malhardasgupta85
Long term vision on GOLDOn the longer timeframes (1 month) gold broke the horizontal resistance based on the top of summer 2014, July 2016 and around February 2018. For now, it looks the month candle is still trading above the resistance line but, we have one trading week left before the candle closes. So to be safe, wait for one more week, and if price is above resistance line, it's a good opportunity to open a long trade. The more aggressive traders can start building up the positions now, offcourse withe stops below the resistance line. You want to keep the risk low, because it's not been said yet that it's a real break out. Options for fake break out, or stop loss hunt, are still open. This technical long vision also perfectly comes together with the fundamentals: " President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday, days after he abruptly called off a plan for airstrikes against the Islamic Republic based on the concept of proportionality after Iran shot down a U.S. Navy drone. " - source Bloomberg " Gold (XAU/USD-spot) closed around 1399.43 in the U.S. session Friday, soared almost +0.63% on safe-haven appeal amid U.S. allegation of oil tankers attack by Iran coupled with lingering suspense about U.S.-China trade war. A full-fledged trade/cold war is positive for tariff/imported inflation and also positive for the precious metal as an “inflation hedge”. Gold is also boosted by a deluge of soft U.S. economic data and hopes for two Fed rate cuts in 2019 and one in 2020 amid an intensifying Trump trade war and the probability of an U.S./global economic slowdown. " - by Asis Ghosh on iforex
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DutchFXtrader