S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
Economy
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has demonstrated significant strength during this week's trading session, attaining a notable Inner Currency Rally at 1.129 and encountering Mean Resistance at 1.137. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro will likely progress towards the forthcoming target levels, specifically the Mean Resistance at 1.142 and the Key Resistance at 1.151. A retest of the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.157 may facilitate this advancement. However, a potential downward pullback could emerge from the current price range, particularly in proximity to the Mean Resistance level of 1.137, with a possibility of declining to the Mean Support at 1.127.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the course of this week's trading session, Bitcoin demonstrated significant upward movement, surpassing both Mean Resistance at 105000 and Key Resistance at 106100. This progression also facilitated the surpassing completed Inner Coin Rally at 108,000, and the highly anticipated Outer Coin Rally marked at 110000. As a result, the cryptocurrency experienced a substantial decline, currently aiming toward Mean Support at 105600, with a potential further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 101500.
It is essential to acknowledge the possibility of an upward momentum emerging from the current level, which may enable a challenge to Key Resistance at 111700. Success in this regard could result in reaching the Inner Coin Rally at $114500 and, subsequently, the Outer Coin Rally at 122000.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6%
April/2025
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025,
unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December.
Food prices rose the least in four months (6.5% vs 7.4% in March) even as rice costs jumped 94.8% y-o-y, hitting a new record for the 7th straight month due to poor harvests and rising demand from record tourist numbers.
Price growth also eased for clothing (2.7% vs 3.0%) and household items (4.1% vs 4.5%).
Cost of education fell much steeper (-5.6% vs -1.2%).
In contrast, inflation was stable for transport (at 2.7%) while accelerating for housing (1.0% vs 0.8%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.0%), recreation (2.7% vs 2.0%), communications (1.1% vs 1.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.3% vs 1.1%).
Prices of electricity (13.5% vs 8.7% ) and gas (4.4% vs 2.4%) rose the most in three months, as the impact of government subsidies faded.
Core inflation climbed to an over 2-year high of 3.5% from 3.2% in March.
Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1%, easing from a 0.3% gain in March.
$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation Rate Accelerates (April/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
April/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the UK jumped to 3.5% in April, the highest since January 2024, from 2.6% in March and above forecasts of 3.3%.
The main upward pressure came from higher electricity and gas prices after the Ofgem price cap increase, while new Vehicle Excise Duty on electric cars lifted transport costs, and food inflation also picked up.
Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated to 3.8%, the highest in a year.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained tightly bound within our Mean Resistance level of 104000 and is positioned to retest the lower target identified as Mean Support at 99300. There exists a possibility of a further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, which may lead to a challenge of the Key Resistance at 106100. This could culminate in a retest of the previously established Inner Coin Rally at $108,000.
$JPGDBQQ -Japan's GDP Shrinks More than Expected (Q1/2025)$JPGDBQQ
Q1/2025
source: Cabinet Office, Japan
- Japan's GDP shrank 0.2% qoq in Q1 of 2025, compared with forecasts of a 0.1% fall and after a 0.6% growth in Q4, flash data showed.
It was the first GDP contraction in a year, amid worries over the impact of US trade policy under President Donald Trump.
On an annualized basis, the economy contracted 0.7%, worse than consensus of a 0.2% drop and a reversal from an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in Q4.
$GBGDPQQ -UK GDP Growth Above Expectations (Q1/2025)ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ
Q1/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The British economy expanded 0.7% on quarter in Q1 2025, compared to 0.1% in Q4 and forecasts of 0.6%, preliminary figures showed. It is the strongest growth rate in 3 quarters, with the largest contribution coming from the services sector, gross fixed capital formation and net trade. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3%.
Magnificent Seven: Still Magnificent? Or Diverging for Good?The Nasdaq 100 has bounced, but under the surface, the “Magnificent Seven” are no longer marching in sync.
And this divergence matters, especially if you’re trading QQQ or using it as a momentum proxy.
⚔️ Leadership Rotation in Real Time
- Nvidia (NVDA): Still a beast. Making fresh highs, clear institutional momentum.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Quiet strength — not flashy, but technically clean.
- Meta, Amazon: Holding up, consolidating after major runs.
- Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA): Weak links. AAPL can't find a bid. TSLA is stuck below major resistance.
Trading QQQ directly?
Consider weighting your thesis by what’s working under the hood.
- QQQ reclaimed the 200-day MA with the May 12's gap echoing the broader S&P move.
- Look for a retest of the resistance and the previous high of 540
- Play breakouts with confirmation, or mean-reverting pullbacks.
🧠 Final Take
The Magnificent Seven are splitting into two camps: those still driving the rally, and those dragging it.
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA
-After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium)
-Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce
-If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone
-Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle)
If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week.
**Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
April/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March and below forecasts of 2.4%.
Prices of gasoline fell at a faster pace and inflation also slowed for food and transportation.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in March but below forecasts of 0.3%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.8% as expected, holding at 2021-lows.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the initial days of this week’s trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a steady to low price movement pattern, successfully achieving a significant target at the Mean Support level of 5601, as indicated in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. Subsequently, the Index experienced a robust rebound, effectively retesting the Mean Resistance level of 5692. This upward trajectory achievement established a reversal pattern for the downward acceleration to repeat the Mean Support level 5601 retest. However, it is critical to recognize the considerable risk of a sharp upward movement from the current price action, which may lead to an ascent toward the next Mean Support level of 5778. Furthermore, there exists the potential for additional escalation, potentially reaching the Outer Index Rally level of 5915 and beyond.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited signs of weakness following a rebound at the Mean Resistance level of 1.137. With decisive, vigorous bearish price activity, the currency pair decisively breached the critical Mean Support level of 1.128. Current market indicators suggest that the Euro will likely close on a Mean Support level of 1.119, moving further towards an Outer Currency Dip at 1.111. However, it is essential to acknowledge that upward dead-cat rebounds may re-emerge at the present price range level.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin leapfrogged our Interim Coin Rally 100000 via Key Res 97500 in this week's trading session and is clearly aiming to retest the next target of completed Inner Coin Rally 108000. Nevertheless, current price movements indicate a potential retracement from Mean Resistance 104000 toward the Mean Support level at 99300, with a further possible decline likely toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. However, it is imperative to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, as this could facilitate a trajectory toward the Key Res 106100 and the next Interim Coin Rally at $108,000 and beyond.
$GBINTR -BoE Cuts Rates as Expected (May/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR
May/2025
source: Bank of England
- The Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%,
matching expectations but revealing a split 5–4 vote.
Two policymakers favored a deeper 50 bps cut, while two others wanted to hold at 4.5%.
It was the fourth cut since August 2024, amid concerns over slowing growth linked to Trump-era tariffs.
$USINTR -Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged (May/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
May/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve kept the funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% range for a third consecutive meeting as officials adopt a wait-and-see approach amid concerns about the effects of President Trump’s tariffs.
Policymakers noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further and that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index demonstrated a steady to higher price movement, achieving a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5550 and successfully surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5672. This trajectory establishes the foundation for sustained upward momentum as it approaches the Mean Resistance level of 5778 and sets sights on reaching the next Outer Index Rally target marked at 5945. However, it is essential to acknowledge the substantial risk of a sharp retracement from the current price level to the Mean Support level of 5601, with the potential for further decline to the Mean Support level of 5525.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Euro currency has shown weakness in this week's trading session and is resting at the Mean Support designation marked at 1.128. The current trajectory indicates that the Euro is targeted to the downside, with a Mean Support level of 1.119 and an Outert Currency Dip of 1.111. However, it is essential to recognize that upward dead-cat rebounds may re-emerge from the Mean Resistance level or Outer currency Dip.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin prices have significantly exceeded our previously completed Interim Rally 95000, thereby positioning the cryptocurrency to aim for the forthcoming Interim Coin Rally marked at 100000. Nevertheless, current price movements indicate a potential retracement toward the Mean Support level at 94000, with a further possible decline likely toward an additional Mean Support target at 91800. It is imperative to recognize the potential for upward momentum to develop from a retest of either support level, as this could facilitate a trajectory toward the next Interim Coin Rally at $100,000 and beyond.
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
May/2025
source: Bank of Japan
-The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations.
The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%.
The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
$USPCEPIMC -U.S PCE Inflation Slows as Expected (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC -U.S PCE Inflation Slows as Expected (March/2025)
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
March/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The personal consumption expenditure price index in the US was unchanged in March from February 2025, the least in ten months, and following a 0.4% rise in each of the previous two months, in line with expectations.
Prices for goods fell 0.5%, after a 0.2% increase in February and prices for services went up 0.2%, easing from a 0.5% rise.
Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also unchanged, compared with forecasts for a 0.1% increase.
Separately, food prices rose 0.5% (vs a flat reading) while prices for energy goods and services dropped 2.7% (vs 0.1%).
Finally, the annual PCE rate decreased to 2.3%, the lowest in five months, and the annual core PCE inflation also eased to 2.6%.
$USGDPQQ -U.S Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in Q1/2025ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
Q1/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-U.S economy shrank 0.3% in Q1 2025, the first contraction since Q1 2022,
versus 2.4% growth in Q4 and expectations of 0.3% expansion, as rising trade tensions weighed on the economy.
Net exports cut nearly 5 percentage points from GDP as imports jumped over 40%. Consumer spending rose just 1.8%,
the weakest since mid-2023, while federal government outlays fell 5.1%, the most since Q1 2022.