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$GBINTR - U.K Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR March/2025 source: Bank of England - The Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the Bank Rate at 4.5% during its March meeting, as policymakers adopted a wait-and-see approach amid stubbornly high inflation and global economic uncertainties. The bank highlighted that, given the medium-term inflation outlook, a gradual and cautious approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate. CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January, and while global energy prices fell, inflation is expected to rise to 3¾% by Q3 2025. Also, the MPC noted that global trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks increased, with financial market volatility rising. source: Bank of England
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (February/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY February/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.7% in February 2025 from a 2-year high of 4.0% in the prior month, amid a sharp slowdown in prices of electricity (9.0% vs 18.0% in January )and gas (3.4% vs 6.8%) following the government's reinstatement of energy subsidies. Also, food prices rose slightly slower after hitting a 15-month high in January (7.6% vs 7.8%). Further, inflation eased for healthcare (1.7% vs. 1.8%), recreation (2.1% vs. 2.6%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs. 1.4%). At the same time, education costs continued to fall (-1.1% vs. -1.1%). In contrast, inflation remained steady for housing (at 0.8%) and clothing (at 2.8%), while accelerating for transport (2.4% vs. 2.0%) and furniture and household items (4.0% vs. 3.4%), and bouncing back for communications (0.1% vs. -0.3%). The core inflation rate dropped to 3.0% from January's 19-month top of 3.2%, above forecasts of 2.9%. Monthly, the CPI dropped 0.1%, the first fall since September, after a 0.5% gain in January.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603. Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: As indicated in the analysis conducted last week, the Euro has initiated a downward trend following a successful retest of the Mean Resistance level at 1.093. It is currently trending downward toward the Mean Support level at 1.078, potentially declining further to the Mean Support level at 1.061. Conversely, should the anticipated downward trend not materialize, the Eurodollar will retest the Mean Resistance level at 1.087, with an additional resistance level marked at 1.095.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's trading session demonstrated considerable volatility in Bitcoin's price action. The cryptocurrency made multiple attempts to attain our Interim Coin Rally 88400, yet it ultimately remained at the same level as the week commenced. The current analysis suggests that Bitcoin must reach our Mean Support of 82500 before initiating an upward progression aimed at the Interim Coin Rally of 88400 through the Mean Resistance of 87000. Furthermore, a retest of the completed Outer Coin Dip 78700 is essential before the emergence of a significant rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR March/2025 source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0.5% during its March meeting, maintaining it at its highest level since 2008 and in line with market expectations. The unanimous decision followed the central bank’s third rate hike in January and came before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate announcement. The board took a cautious stance, focusing on assessing the impact of rising global economic risks on Japan’s fragile recovery. The BoJ pointed to ongoing uncertainties in the domestic economic outlook amid higher U.S. tariffs and headwinds from overseas conditions. While the Japanese economy had recovered moderately, some weaknesses remained. Private consumption continued to grow, helped by wage hikes, even as cost pressures persisted. However, exports and industrial output were mostly flat. Inflation ranged between 3.0% and 3.5% yearly, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations increased moderately, with underlying CPI projected to rise gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Target | TGT | Long at $105.75Target NYSE:TGT Strengths: P/E: 11.82x Earnings are forecast to grow 4.95% per year Dividend: 4.24% Better "value" compared to others (i.e. NYSE:WMT ) Insiders recently awarded options May have double-bottomed (see weaknesses below...) Weakness Economic headwinds / recession concerns Debt-to-equity: 1.09x (slightly high) Several price gaps on the daily chart are open below the current price. If recession fears are valid and news to messages "tighter consumer spending", these gaps will likely be filled (all the way down to the GETTEX:50S ). One day these will be filled, but that would be a huge opportunity for long-term investors... Thus, at $105.75, NYSE:TGT is in a personal buy zone. Targets $119.75 $137.00 $150.00
NYSE:TGTLong
by WorthlessViews
Credit Spreads - About to Blow?While credit spreads, which reached near-historic lows in 2024, remain tight, they have widened notably since the beginning of 2025. If this trend accelerates, it could put substantial pressure on the bond market, resulting in tighter financial conditions and corresponding headwinds for the domestic economy. The last 2-3 weeks have seen risk assets come under pressure, but the below chart suggests that the risk-off sentiment shift may still be early-stage... Whether viewed through a traditional technical lens or supply/demand, current levels could be considered supportive - risk is to the upside. A few impacted ETFs: NASDAQ:IEF , NASDAQ:TLT , AMEX:HYG , AMEX:JNK Jon JHartCharts
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2Long
by JHartCharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 reached the designated target of the Outer Index Dip at 5576, showing considerable volatility. On the last day of the trading session, the index experienced a significant rebound, leading to an impressive upward trajectory from that position. As a result, it is now aiming for the Inner Index Rally target set at 5712, with a potential subsequent target identified at the Mean Resistance level of 5840. Therefore, upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target 5712, or if there is a decline from its current price level, the index is expected to retest the completed Outer Index Dip at 5521, potentially reinstating the upward rally.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the current week's trading session, Bitcoin has made multiple hits by retesting our completed Outer Coin Dip 78800 on Sunday and Monday. Consequently, the cryptocurrency has experienced a significant uptrend, reaching the inverse (Resistance) Mean Sup 84700 level. This upward oscillation indicates a potential for further price rally and suggests a likelihood of advancing toward the target designated as the Interim Coin Rally 88400. Such developments could facilitate an extension toward the supplementary target of Mean Res 94500 and beyond. If there is a decline from Interim Coin Rally 88400 or its current price level, the coin is expected to retest the completed Outer Coin Dip 78700, potentially reinstating the upward rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
WE ARE COMING OUT OF A RECESSION. NOT GOING INTO ONE.This chart shows 10-year yield, which is closely tied to mortgage rates, minus the Federal funds rate. When this figure is negative, it typically indicates that we are experiencing a recession or economic downturn. Conversely, a positive number usually aligns with economic growth, often referred to as the good times. While it's up to you to determine the reasons behind a official recession not being declared during the Biden administration, the undeniable data reflects a prolonged period of economic strain. However, the current trend seems to be shifting towards a positive reading, which should lead to more accessible lending and economic growth. AKA The good times are coming.
TVC:US10YLong
by BallaJi
$CNIRYY - China's CPI DefelationaryECONOMICS:CNIRYY -0.7% (February/2025) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices dropped by 0.7% yoy in February 2025, surpassing market estimates of a 0.5% decline and reversing a 0.5% rise in the prior month. This was the first consumer deflation since January 2024, amid fading seasonal demand following the Spring Festival in late January. Food prices fell the most in 13 months (-3.3% vs 0.4% in January), dragged by a steep decrease in cost of fresh vegetables (-12.6% vs 2.4%) and a sharp slowdown in pork prices (4.1% vs 13.8%). Meanwhile, non-food prices edged lower (-0.1% vs 0.5%), as increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%) and healthcare (0.2% vs 0.7%) were offset by declines in education (-0.5% vs 1.7%) and transport (-2.5% vs -0.6%). Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, fell 0.1% in February, in contrast to a 0.6% rise in January. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.2%, shifting from January's 11-month top of a 0.7% rise and marking the first drop since last November. This fall was also steeper than consensus of a 0.1% decrease.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 successfully retested the Mean Resistance level of 5967; however, it subsequently experienced a significant decline. This decline brought the index back to the Mean Support level of 5860 and further down to the next major Key Support level of 5710. After this downturn, the index established a new critical support level at 5683. It is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5840. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position and successfully surpass this key resistance, it may continue to ascend toward the subsequent Mean Resistance level of 5955. Conversely, suppose the index experiences a decline from the retested level of 5840. In that case, it will likely target the Mean Support level of 5683, with a further descent to an Outer Index Dip of 5576.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
3
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the preliminary phase of the Inner Currency Rally, the Euro achieved a significant milestone of 1.060 during the current week's trading session. Demonstrating an unprecedented surge in "dead-cat rally" sentiment, it subsequently completed our next targeted level of Inner Currency Rally of 1.086. As a result, the market has established a Mean Support target at 1.077, which the ongoing pullback indicates may be the next point of focus. This price movement may also lead to a further decline toward an additional Mean Support level of 1.057. Conversely, should the anticipated downward trend fail to materialize, the Eurodollar may initiate an upward trend toward the Mean Resistance level of 1.091. This movement could aim for the ultimate Outer Currency Rally level of 1.124 in the near future.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the trading session for this week, we observed significant volatility characterized by considerable fluctuations, ultimately culminating in the completion of the coin Interim Coin Rally 94500. The coin experienced a substantial increase, reaching our Mean Resistance level of 92600, before encountering a steep pullback that resulted in its stabilization at the starting point of Mean Support of 84700. This upward fluctuation indicates a potential for higher prices and suggests a likelihood of retesting the target Mean Resistance levels at 90600, coinciding with the conclusion of Interim Coin Rally 94500. Nonetheless, a retest of the Key Support level at 79000 and the completed of the Outer Coin Dip 78700 may occur prior to any further upward momentum.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$NIFTY: Nifty 50 – India’s Market Meltdown or Hidden Gem?(1/9) Good Morning, folks! ☀️ NSE:NIFTY : Nifty 50 – India’s Market Meltdown or Hidden Gem? Gift Nifty’s at 22,555, down 65 points, and the index is off 13% since October 2024! Is this a crash landing or a golden ticket in disguise? Let’s unpack the chaos! 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Gift Nifty: 22,555, down 65 points (Mar 6, 2025) 💰 • Recent Trend: 13% drop from Oct 2024 highs 📏 • Sector Mood: Autos, real estate dragging, per web reports 🌩️ It’s a bumpy ride, but bargains might be brewing! 🔧 (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Index Weight: 50 top Indian firms, 65% of NSE market cap 🏅 • Scope: Spans 13 sectors, from banks to tech ⏳ • Trend: Bearish streak persists, down 13% since Oct 🎯 Still a heavyweight, but feeling the squeeze! 🌐 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • Earnings Slowdown: Growth at 5%, down from 20%+ 🔄 • Macro Woes: U.S. tariffs, trade tensions spook investors 🌍 • Market Vibe: Gift Nifty signals a sour start 📋 Tough times, but sectors might shine through! 💡 (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Geopolitics: U.S. tariff threats hit exports 🔍 • Sector Slump: Autos, real estate under pressure 📉 • Volatility: Bearish trend grips tight 🌪️ Rough waters ahead, but storms pass! 🛡️ (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Diversity: 13 sectors, broad economic play 🏆 • Scale: Tracks India’s biggest players 📈 • Value: Potentially undervalued, per web buzz 🔩 A battered champ with fight left! 💼 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: 5% earnings growth, macro drag 📉 • Opportunities: Sector plays in banks, tech shine 📈 Can it dodge the punches and rally? 🤔 (8/9) – 📢Nifty at 22,555 (Gift), down 13%—your call? 🗳️ • Bullish: $24K soon, undervalued steal 🦬 • Neutral: Flatline, risks offset ⚖️ • Bearish: $20K next, bears rule 🐻 Vote below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 Nifty’s 13% slide and $116 Gift price signal trouble 📉, but undervalued sectors tease upside 🌱. Volatility’s our mate—dips are DCA fuel 🔥. Buy low, aim high! Hit or miss?
NSE:NIFTYLong
by DCAChampion
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest RatesECONOMICS:EUINTR (March/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. This decision reflects an updated assessment of the inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission. *The ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target. Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment. *The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
All Federal Employees To US PopulationI think it is important for people to full understand that the 172,000 job cuts from the Federal Government is more about showmanship than logic. The federal gov employees as a % of the population has been falling for decades through the growth of the population and the economy. This is the absolute best way to reduce gov. Debt, deficits, etc.. through growth, NOT cutting and causing a heart attack! Slow mythological, calculated cuts if/when they are required are fine. chaotic, reactive, for the sake of showmanship is NOT! This will not end well. There will be consequences, people have yet to realize and appreciate the severity of these actions. These actions taken by the current administration will be felt in the markets.
FRED:CES9091000001
by RealMacro
16
Rate Cuts Are NOT BullishRate cuts in the US have never been bullish for equity markets in macro cycles. The idea that rates coming down from 5% to 4% suddenly making people more creditworthy is a farce because rates never move in anything other than large timeframe tides. These tides reflect growth/inflation expectations, not borrowing costs. Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away the negative GDP prints as demand shocks due to tariffs/trade deficit imbalances while waiting for more data to make a decision. Labor market has been declining as well but he doesn't want to make a panic decision and also probably feels no personal loyalty to help President Trump out. Historical average for US inflation is about 3.2% with the 2% target meaning deflation is a possible problem incoming. Current US inflation rate is about 3% which is well inline with the historical average. Powell will never say it but so far his mission has been accomplished. He may cut rates at the back end of the year if necessary but as of this post he has no reason to.
TVC:US02Y
by CrashoutCapital
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptBo88