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DAX, will the next crisis end the current phase?Hello everyone, this is not a usual trading analysis. So don't take any trades from monthly levels, as you can't manage the risk at all. What you can see is my try to figure out how the DAX went through different states of price development and really interesting to see is, that every big crisis ended one phase and opened a new one. In my point of view we are currently at the way to the upper boundary of the recent phase and should reach it within the next year. The question is, where will the price finally find a solid ATH and start to correct? According to my last daily analysis a strong zone could be around 17.600, but if the economy is holding really strong into next years, higher prices are possible of course. If you want to be in the big short trade, that I'm anticipating from the upper boundary, you have to wait patiently for a fundamental crisis, which has more impact than the banking crisis, energy crisis or the current wars, as they didn't stop the price for a long time. The only reason I can anticipate for now is a comeback of high inflation with even higher interest rates, that end up in a big recession and the consequences for the banking and financial system. I will monitor this scenario next year, especially the month february and march are likely to offer crisis potential.
XETR:DAX
by Kyrean
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Based on the chart analysis for March 8, it has been observed that the S&P 500 (Spooz) index has initiated a renewed downward trend from the completed Outer Index Rally 5170. The Spooz targets a newly created Mean Support level of 5096, which is anticipated to serve as a rebound point, enabling the index to retest the completed Outer Index Rally 5170. The subsequent important target for the index is the Outer Index Rally 5280. However, it is essential to note that there exists a possibility of the index experiencing a dip and resting at the Mean Support level of 5060.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
2
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading, the Eurodollar had difficulty surpassing our Mean Resistance level of 1.097. As a result, it continued to move towards our Mean Support level of 1.087, which could lead to further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.080. Nevertheless, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip of 1.100 before potentially resuming a bearish trend.
by TradeSelecter
🚨 Bitcoin NOT at all-time high yet! 🚨🚨 Bitcoin NOT at all-time high yet! 🚨 I developed this formula a long time ago and have been observing it. When the founder of ADA (Charles Hoskinson) said that the previous Bitcoin all time high was $69,000 based on the value of the dollar in 2021, I remembered my formula. The essence is quite simple: multiply the sum of the Fed's liabilities, the US budget balance, and the debt-to-GDP ratio by the dollar index and divide by the price of Bitcoin. From an economic point of view, this formula attempts to correlate US monetary and fiscal indicators, as well as the strength of the dollar, with the price of Bitcoin. It is my attempt to measure the "fundamental value" of Bitcoin relative to the indicators of the US economy and the strength of the dollar.
FRED:RRPONTTLDLong
by sholi_software
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: According to the chart analysis for March 1, the S&P 500 (Spooz) index continued to perform exceptionally well, achieving our expectations again. The index bounced off the solid Mean Support level of 5060 on March 5 and reached our designated target of the Outer Index Rally at 5170. This was a significant achievement, as it triggered designated a pivotal squeeze aimed back to the Mean Support level of 5060. The index has the potential to visit the well-established Mean Support level of 4950, which has proven to be a very steady level in the past. It is worth noting that once the pivotal pullback level is achieved, the index will continue its journey toward the outer index rally at 5280. This indicates that the index is on a steady upward trajectory and is expected to perform well in the near future, and traders and investors can expect positive investment returns.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
3
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading, the Eurodollar saw a remarkable surge, breaking through our Mean Resistance levels of 1.085 and 1.090. The currency marched forward with significant momentum, leaving behind the previous trading range. However, based on the recent price trend and market analysis, we anticipate the Eurodollar will retrace its steps and move lower toward our projected Mean Support level of 1.087. This could trigger further selling pressure, leading to a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.080. Despite this, there is a possibility of the Eurodollar reaching the Inner Currency Dip of 1.100 before potentially resuming a bearish trend.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's price has risen this week, surpassing Major Key Resistance 67530 and the all-time high of 69000. Its ongoing targets are the Inner Coin Rally 72500, the Next Inner Coin Rally 78200, and the Outer Coin Rally 81400. A slight dip to the Mean Sup at the 63800 price is expected before the next rally. Despite the increasing acceptance and rise in investor interest, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin remains subject to volatility and market fluctuations. As such, it is imperative to maintain rigorous vigilance over its price movements and market trends to make informed investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: As indicated on the chart analysis for February 23, the S&P 500 (Spooz) index excelled yet again as expected, bouncing off the strong Mean Support 5060 and reaching a new high. The main up price target for the index is Outer Index Rally 5170, with a prospect of extending to the next Outer Index Rally 5280. Notwithstanding, once the 5170 level is accomplished, the index is expected to drop somewhat and continue its journey toward the Outer Index Rally at 5280. In view of the fact that the uptrend is so strong, we do not have any viable support or resistance levels for slower time frame charts (Swing/position trading mode). We will monitor the price action this upcoming week and determine what and when we should unload or exit the market.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading, the Eurodollar lacked significant price movement, revolving around the Mean Resistance level of 1.085. This means that the currency has been experiencing a period of consolidation with no clear direction. However, based on recent price trends, we expect the Eurodollar to move towards our Mean Support level of 1.077. This may trigger further downward movement, leading to an additional decline. If the downward movement continues, the Eurodollar could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which is the primary target. The Inner Currency Dip 1.065 is where the currency is expected to have the most significant support, and a reversal in trend can often occur. However, this decline will happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 as intermediate upside price effects. It's important to note that various factors, such as economic data releases, political developments, and global events, can influence the Eurodollar's movement.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's price action saw a remarkable surge in the current week, which should not come as a surprise to this audience. After breaking through the completed Outer Coin Rally at 53000, Bitcoin's legit targets were 55000 and 59829, as this would. Bitcoin is setting itself up for the next launch, the Inner Coin Rally at 69000 and the Outer Coin Rally at 81400, which is expected to break records and disappoint those who have dismissed cryptocurrencies. However, a pullback to the Mean Sup at the 60400 price is a transient dip before the next rally. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains promising as it continues to attract more investors and gain wider acceptance. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price movements and market trends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Macro Monday 13~Purchase Managers IndexMacro Monday 13 ISM Purchasing Managers Index The ISM Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) measures month over month change in economic activity within the manufacturing sector. The PMI is a survey-based indicator that is compiled and released each month by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The survey is sent to senior executives at more than 400 companies in 19 primary industries, which are weighted by their contribution to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A PMI above 50 represents an expansion in manufacturing when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction while a reading at 50 indicates no change. The further away from 50, the greater the level of change. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". The ISM reports are released on the first business day of each month for the month that has previously closed. Thus, they are some of the earliest indicators of current economic activity that investors and business leaders get regularly. Something to look out for next Monday 2nd October 2023. The PMI focuses mainly on the five major survey areas; 1. Employment (20%) 2. New orders (30%) Covered in Macro Monday 6 3. Production/Output (25%) 4. Inventory levels (10%) 5. Supplier deliveries (15%) We covered the ISM New Orders Index in Macro Monday 6 as it is the largest component of the Purchaser Managers Index making up 30% of the overall index. I will leave a link to the chart. The Chart The chart outlines the last 12 recessions (shaded red zones) with the PMI readings over the same period. As we are already aware above 50 on the PMI reading is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary (red thick line). Three Main Findings 1. In 11 out of 12 recessions a PMI reading at or below 42 was established. This means if the PMI falls to 42 there is a 92% probability of a recession. At present we have not reached that level, we are currently at 47.6. 2. The PMI has bottomed 10 out of 12 times in Quarter 1 (between Jan – March) with the remaining two bottoms happening in Quarter 2 (both in May). This means that 83% of the time the PMI cycle appears to bottom in Quarter 1 with the most bottoms in January (6) with Feb(2) and May(2) in close second place. - It’s worth noting that the bottom of the PMI cycle may not be the bottom of a stock market cycle. If we are forward looking then a rising PMI is positive for the economy and markets but ideally a move above 50 is the true signal of economic expansion from a manufacturing standpoint. 3. The average PMI bottom to bottom cycle timeframe over the past 6 cycles is 58 months with the shortest being 37 months and the longest being 86 months. We are currently at month 38 and the average month of 58 is Jan 2025 with the max of 86 months being May 2027. - How interesting is it that both these potential PMI bottom dates line up with our two most frequent PMI bottom months indicated in point 2 (January and May). - Interestingly according to U.S. government research, since WWII the business cycle in America takes, on average, around 5.5 years which closely aligns with our 58 month (or roughly 5 year) indication for the PMI chart. The business cycle incorporates an aggregate of economic data such as the ISM data, GDP and income/employment metrics. We might cover the business cycle in more detail on a future Macro Monday. The ISM New Orders Index (30% of the PMI) Similar to the ISM New Orders Index Chart (covered in Macro Monday 6) which makes up 30% of the PMI, we have not reached below the 42 level on this chart either which has provided a 100% confirmation of recession when we have had a definitive move below the 42 level historically. For ISM New Orders if we stay below a sub 50 level on the ISM New Orders Chart for greater than 7 months it has resulted in a recession every time except for 1966 and 1995 (8 out of 10 times). We are currently 14 months below the 50 level which is unprecedented, with the new orders index nudging a little lower on the August reading from 47.3 down to 46.8. ISM Data Release 2nd October 2023 When we receive our next ISM Data release next Monday 2nd October 2023 we can refer back to the PMI chart and the New Orders Index Chart and see how things have progressed and if we have reached and critical levels. These charts and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play on TradingView and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading decisions. Have a great Monday guys, Lets get after it! PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by PukaCharts
4
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: As indicated on the chart analysis for February 16th, the S&P 500 (Spooz) index shined as expected and reached a new high, surpassing all resistance and index rallies, including Key Resistance at 5029, Outer Index Rally at 5035, and 5072. However, its current price action is in retreat, and it is entering a pivotal squeeze mode - a period of consolidation where the index is expected to remain within a narrow range or drop significantly lower to take a breather - Time will tell. The main down price target for the index is Mean Support at 5060, with a possibility of extending to Mean Support at 4950. Once one or both of these levels are accomplished, the index is expected to rebound strongly and continue its journey toward the Outer Index Rally at 5170.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: the current week's trading, the Eurodollar has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a keen ability to withstand significant pressure. After initially facing a considerable challenge against our Mean Resistance level at 1.084, the currency has managed to push past it briefly, indicating a bullish trend. However, the bullish run has been short-lived, as the Eurodollar has retreated to its original position, pointing to a potential bearish trend. Based on recent price action, we anticipate the currency to move towards our Mean Support level at 1.077, which could trigger a further downward slide. If this downward slide occurs, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which will be the primary target. However, this decline may happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 acting as intermediate targets. Overall, the data suggests that the Eurodollar may experience a bearish trend shortly, and traders should consider this while making their investment decisions.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced a decline during this week's trading session. It crossed our Mean Support level of 1.074 and Inner Currency level of 0.075 before quickly bouncing back to the Mean Resistance level of 1.079. Currently, the currency is in a primary downward trend and is expected to continue until it reaches the Inner Currency Dip of 1.065 via Mean Sup 1.071. However, an intermediate price trading at Mean Res 1.079 may cause a potential extension to 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart analysis on February 9th shows how powerful the Trade Selector System is to this Trading View platform. Bitcoin has completed the second phase of the reignited rebound extension phase, also known as the "Outer Coin Rally 53000". Currently, this analysis shows the downside price action is in pivotal squeeze mode; it is expected to rebound and retest Mean Res 52500. Moreover, completing the Outer Coin Rally 53000 from this spot is imminent.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Could India continue to drive returns for Emerging Markets?India shined as one of the best performing markets globally in 2023 despite high global inflation, rising interest rates, and unstable geopolitics. The Sensex and Nifty, two widely followed benchmarks for the Indian markets, grew 19.57% and 21.11% respectively in US Dollar (USD) terms1. India’s economy displayed strong local retail demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rates and healthy foreign exchange reserves. India also enjoyed relatively healthy relations with most major economies of the world and cautiously navigated the geopolitical conflicts. As we look ahead in 2024, we remain confident that India, driven by a host of macroeconomic factors, is a long-term story and one that could last for years if not decades to come. National elections are due to be held around May 2024. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a historic third term and it is highly likely that the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will once again win with a full majority. India benefits from Modi’s pro-business and pro-growth policies and a stable political environment further boosts prospects to realise rapid growth. We analysed the performance of BSE Sensex, one of the widely followed benchmarks of the Indian stock market, pre and post elections. On average, the Indian markets displayed positive performance, delivering over 31% returns over the year leading up to elections, combined with the year after election results. This is despite the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 drawdown negatively impacting the performance leading to 2009 elections, and after the 2019 elections respectively. We expect this trend to continue with the likely return of the incumbent government. Of course, should Modi lose, some of the recent gains might reverse. However, that seems highly unlikely, given the state of opposition, as multiple political parties, including some with completely unaligned agendas have joined hands to prevent a third Modi term. This was evident over the five recent elections in which the BJP won by huge majority in three of the largest states with a high proportion of the Lok Sabha (national election) constituencies. Other important factors that investors might want to keep an eye on during the year: 1. Rate cuts – The Federal Reserve’s pace and timing on rate cuts will impact global markets and India is no different. The quicker and higher the cuts, the more the capital expected to be diverted towards equities, and with a strong momentum from the previous year, India might be one of the top picks in the Emerging Markets. 2. Crude oil prices – The Indian economy heavily depends on the import of crude oil. The higher the crude oil prices, the more the stress on India’s foreign current accounts. Drops in crude oil could help India’s economy grow faster and allow more room for spending on growth and infrastructure. India is simultaneously also working to reduce dependency on crude oil by diversifying into ethanol. Over the last few years, ethanol production has increased manifold and there is rising pressure to increase the usage of ethanol-blended fuel to power vehicles. This could potentially save the country much needed cash and help direct it to fuel economic growth and reduce fiscal deficits. 3. China decoupling – India has emerged as one of the most credible contenders to help diversify manufacturing out of China. For example, Apple established a considerable footprint and plans to scale up operations multi-fold; significant investments and subsidies were introduced to attract semiconductor companies from Taiwan; and there are also suggestions that Tesla is looking to enter India with a USD 2 billion investment into a manufacturing facility based in the state of Gujrat. One of the most iconic policies of the current government over the last decade has been ‘Make in India’. The government will be pushing hard to attract more companies to set up manufacturing plants in India and leverage the success of ‘Make in India’ among voters. 4. Geopolitical instability – India has been relatively less impacted by geopolitical conflicts around the globe. India maintained its neutral stance and successfully managed to stand firm despite pressure from the west by importing discounted oil from Russia to ensure its energy security, while at the same time pitched itself as a closer ally to the US to counter the growing China threat. 5. Retail flows – In the recent years, India witnessed increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market. There are 80 million unique investors in the Indian stock markets that invest through the NSE.2 Moreover, the size of mutual fund AUM is around 24% currently compared to 11% a decade ago. The strong retail presence helps add stability to the Indian markets in events of global instability and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows. Conclusion We strongly believe that India is a multi-decade story, and we are in very early stages of it. India has made tremendous progress in privatising corruption and debt-ridden state-owned companies, with disinvestments fetching USD 50 billion for the government over the last 10 years, out of which close to USD 40 billion was realised from sales of minority stakes, while close to USD 10 billion was realised from strategic transactions in 10 CPSEs – with the most notable being Air India3. This has helped in making companies more accountable to investors and more accessible via the stock market. Sources 1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 2 Source: According to recent comments from CEO of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 3 See: Disinvestment fetches over Rs 4.20 lakh cr in 10 years but target to be missed again in FY24, December 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NSE:NIFTY
by aneekaguptaWTE
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 index has reached and surpassed our Inner Index Rally 4980, and we expect it to continue to rise in the upcoming week. Our projection is that it will fill the five-handle gap to reach an Outer Index Rally 5035 and then continue to Inner Index Rally 5072. However, we anticipate potential pullbacks in the market at this level. Notwithstanding, if there is a down move or gap-down before reaching the 5035 price, the Mean Sup 4985 will be the primary target. It is essential to monitor the price action carefully in the first three days of the upcoming week's session to make informed trading entry decisions.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar traded lower in this week's trading session by completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 and settling in a tight range, hovering above our Mean Sup 1.074 and under Mean Res 1.079. The Eurodollar is in a primary downward trend, which will continue until the support level marked at Mean Support of 1.074 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 is broken. Once these levels are eliminated, the currency will continue to decline toward the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, an intermediate upward movement is possible, in which case the currency might retest the Mean Support level of 1.084.
by TradeSelecter