Get started

Economy

FrogAlgo: USA Economy💥It is important to understand that the US economy represents approximately 25% of the global GDP, despite having just 334 million people, which is around 4.25% of the global population. This context is crucial for comprehending various narratives prevalent in media and politics. Here are a few examples to illustrate this point 🧵: ♦️China, with 1.45 billion people (18.5% of the global population), contributes $18 trillion (18%) to the global GDP. ♦️India, with 1.4 billion people (18% of the global population), generates $3.4 trillion (3%) of the global GDP. ♦️Russia, with 146 million people (1.87% of the global population), produces $2 trillion (1.9%) of the global GDP. 💥When the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are combined, their 3.3 billion people (43% of the global population) contribute $26 trillion (26%) to the global GDP. 💥Despite the large population of the BRICS nations, their economic output barely matches that of the 334 million Americans. However, it would actually be beneficial for the US if the BRICS nations were to increase their GDP. As these 3.3 billion people become wealthier, they would become potential customers for American high-end goods and services. Consequently, the US would see increased profits. It is worth noting that the US dollar would strengthen in such a scenario, considering the 334 million Americans would have significantly more affluent customers to cater to. 💥Comparatively, Russia's 1.9% share of the global GDP pales in comparison to the US's 25% share. This is also true when considering the collective economic power of the 32 NATO member nations or the 50 countries supporting Ukraine. By engaging in actions detrimental to its own economy, such as the annexation of Crimea or involvement in Ukraine, Russia's leadership, under Putin, has effectively committed economic suicide on behalf of its people. This situation has created a humanitarian crisis without any tangible benefits for Russia. Even if Russia were to conquer Ukraine and the former Soviet bloc, the strategy of scorched earth is not conducive to maintaining a healthy and vibrant economy. 💥These examples serve to demonstrate how understanding this piece of information can help individuals better contextualize and discern between the plethora of narratives, whether accurate or unfounded, that circulate constantly in various domains.
AMEX:SPY
by A1TradingHub
BEFORE 1971 u could acquire 1 #Gold Oz for 10 hours of labourThe erosion of wealth via #fiat debasement is clear for you to see on this chart With the price of gold denominated us avg salary per hour * The BLS actually has a higher number of $32 ... but the data on that price has less historical data. NOW it takes nearly two weeks of labour to acquire 1 oz (pre tax and living expenses obviously) But this chart also perilously points how painful the end of US dollar dominance could be. Pointing to an astronomical level of over 500 hours of work to get one gold ounce. Clearly adding #PreciousMetals to your portfolio could be one the great wealth builders in the coming years.
TVC:GOLDLong
by BallaJi
Recession Timeframe Horizon Macro Monday (2) Potential Recession Time Horizon Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level: 1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980) 2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981) 3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990) 4) 12 Months (Mar 2000 – Mar 2001) 5) 22 Months (Feb 2006 – Dec 2007) 6) 6 Months (Aug 2019 – Mar 2020) 7) 4 Months so far (Mar 2023 - ????) Average Time frame: 13 months (reasonable time horizon would be 6 – 18 months). I consider the first definitive turn up towards the 0% level as no. 7 on the chart (March 2023). Since this date we have rolled over below the -1% level (see additional chart in comments). March 2023 appears similar to the bounce in Dec 1978 (No. 1 in the chart), it also rolled over to the lower sub -1% level. If we assumed a similar 13 month timeframe to recession commencement as in Dec 1978 of 13 months, which also aligns with our 13 month average above, we would be looking at April 2024 for a recession to commence. Interestingly 1978 - 1980 was a similar peak inflationary period known as the Great Inflation, a defining macroeconomic period of high inflation. You might be wondering, has a recession ever occurred in the month of April before? I personally thought this was a strange month but it has occurred in the past. In April 1960 a recession commenced and lasted 10 months to February 1961. The 1960 recession was mainly a result of an over-tight monetary policy whereby the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 1.75% in mid-1958 to 4% by the end of 1959 and maintained them at that level until June 1960. The Federal Reserves motive for raising interest rates and maintaining them was fear of high inflation (as in early 1951 inflation soared to +9.5%). Is it just me or is this all starting to sound a little too familiar? If we wanted to cater for all time scenarios in the chart and noted above (no. 1 - 6) we could argue that the start of a recession is possible at the earliest within 6 months (Sept 2023) and at the latest 22 months (Jan 2025). Also, the month of April 2024 has some eerie similarities to two prior recessions, the 1978 and 1960 Recessions. Lucky 13 Since World War 2 bear markets have on average taken about 13 months to reach their bottom and a further 26 months to recover their losses. Our average time before a recession would start is 13 months. It’s worth remembering that it could take an additional 13 months before a bottom is established and then 2 years or 26 months (2 x 13) of price action below the pre-recession price highs. Over 3 years is a long time to wait to recover losses. It would be pertinent to start deleveraging or increasing your hedge from the 6 month mark (Sept 2023 in this case) as subsequently the likelihood of a 3 year period below the Sept 2023 price levels increase as each month passes. For reference the S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets over the avg. timeframe of 13 months to the bottom. I actually find it very hard to accept that a recession is possible in the near term (within 6 - 12 months) and I would in fact argue against it, however I cannot explain away the data in the chart which speaks for itself and warrants at least some consideration & caution. Nothing is a guarantee and maybe this time it will be different, especially factoring in the amount of unprecedented liquidity added to the market in recent years, sticky inflation and financial supports provided to systemically important banks. All the chart really indicates is a probable window for a recession to start some time between Sept 2023 – Jan 2025 and no guarantees. The rule of 13 is worth remembering, simply from a timing perspective (before and during a recession) as it may help your timing. Based on two similar periods in history, the 1978 and 1960 recessions suggest the month of April 2024 may be a key date. Again, no guarantees. It is also worth noting that for the last six recessions, on average, the announcement of when a recession started was up to 8 months after the fact…meaning we will have no direct indication when a recession starts, however the un-inversion of the yield curve (back above the 0% level) and a rise in unemployment will be the early tells, so these are worth paying attention too. We will keep you posted on any sudden changes in these metrics. I hope the chart is helpful, provides one perspective of which there are many, and can help time and frame the situation we currently find ourselves in. NO GAURANTEES, just probable timeframes that may be worth paying attention too. PUKA List of Recessions: 1. COVID-19 Recession (February - April 2020) 2. The Great Recession of 2008 (December 2007 - June 2009) 3. The September 11 Recession (March - November 2001) 4. The Gulf War Recession (July 1990 - March 1991) 5. The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession (July 1981 - November 1982) 6. The Energy Crisis Recession (January - July 1980) 7. The Nixon Recession (December 1969 - November 1970) 8. The “Rolling Adjustment” Recession (April 1960 - February 1961) 9. The Eisenhower Recession (August 1957 - April 1958) 10. The Post-Korean War Recession (July 1953 - May 1954)
FRED:T10Y2Y
by PukaCharts
5
Key Drivers of the Market - A Deep DiveHello everyone! Today we will talk about five different important concepts. Many things are happening in markets, so I will create similar reports to help people understand why things are how they are. This will be my first report, so it might be a bit harder to go through, especially because on Tradingview, I can't easily share economic data or random non-Tradingview charts, so I will try to make each concept as simple as possible. Positioning 1) Positioning in markets appears to be quite extreme. Looking at the CoT long/short data for hedge fund positioning, we can get a pretty good sense of whether speculators are long or short. Overall, the market remains short on stocks and bonds. Regarding bond data, it is possible that the positioning is like this for other reasons, which doesn't mean they are bullish. As contrarians, we usually want to go against most speculators, but sometimes the speculators take one position for reasons other than making a directional bet (maybe they are hedged). Another significant market to look at is the energy market, and more specifically, oil, which in my opinion, is very close to transitioning back into a bull market. I am expecting one more shakeout here, with a dip toward 55-60$. I think one more shakeout for oil to take out all the lows (hunt stop loss), and speculators will fully turn short. Speculators have been cutting their longs for a year and are almost about to turn short for the first time in many years. Inflation 2) Expected inflation in the next CPI print is around 3% YoY and 0.3% MoM, potentially influenced by recent commodity spikes. These short-lived spikes could affect June's print, as some food-related commodities had a little rally. I believe inflation could come back with a vengeance, as there are too many potential issues with producing several materials and products. These issues could be exacerbated due to deglobalization and climate change (not the climate getting hotter, but colder). Truflation shows 2.3% YoY inflation, inflation expectations are at 2.3%, and interest rates are between 3.7% and 5.25% across the yield curve. My main view is that inflation will trend lower for a little longer, and its downtrend could end with a deflationary spike, as current real rates are substantially positive. It's even possible that we will get negative CPI MoM prints in Q3-Q4, but inflationary pressures will probably resume once we are done with that. Many argue that core inflation is sticky and too high, and I believe it might stay elevated for a while, but eventually, I think it will start falling. My view on inflation mainly has to do with outright shortages and not with money printing. The current disinflationary trend seen across most countries will probably continue for a little longer as we haven't seen substantial money printing for a while, while interest rate hikes are starting to affect consumers negatively. The biggest issue I see is that commodity producers are struggling and face severe problems due to green policies, deglobalization, and climate change. Another important point is that OPEC+ is about to cut 1-2m barrels/day of production, which means oil could spike as demand remains relatively strong. One of the reasons I think the biggest inflationary threat comes from the supply side (goods/services) is that Japan has had lower inflation than the US, despite keeping rates at 0. China didn't raise rates either and has been pumping liquidity into the system, as well as cutting rates, and yet inflation there is almost 0%. It shows that inflation has come down independently, with markets slowly shorting through various imbalances, not because interest rates increased. At this stage, higher rates might actually have the opposite effect than the one intended. Why? Because of the massive debts at the government level, which are being inflated even further as governments borrow at higher rates. Housing 3) The housing market remains strong, and a deficit exists. More supply will be coming online over time, but there are no signs of weakness or that the supply won't be able to be absorbed by the market. Many people are still waiting for rates and prices to drop in order to buy a house, while those with a mortgage are not selling their houses because they don't want to get a more expensive loan. Therefore we essentially have a balance in the market, with new houses and defaults being absorbed by those with cash and those willing to get an expensive mortgage. Rents have not gone up YoY but seem to be about to trend higher again. As there is still a lot of cash in the market and the US government keeps spending, it's reasonable to expect rents to stay flat or slowly tick higher, even if interest rate hikes are starting to affect the economy. Some countries are really suffering from higher interest rates, as most people have variable-rate mortgages; however, the US is in a better situation as most had their mortgages fixed at low rates. So far, it looks like banks and central banks are taking a loss on all the mortgages issued or refinanced during 2020 and 2021, and this effect won't be reverted any time soon. GDP 4) Q1 GDP growth was revised higher at 2% (from 1.4%), showing resilience in the US economy amidst recession fears. Despite growth in the US markets, concerns over a recession remain. As the US government keeps spending at a high pace, a recession will probably be delayed; without that meaning, it will never arrive. Interest rates have been rising, and the Fed wants to hike rates once or twice again. The Fed will likely intervene to support the economy in 1-2 years. As the deficit grows and rates increase, within the next few years, the government will have absorbed all excess liquidity trapped in the RRP or banks. That means that the Fed will then be forced to start buying bonds. The Fed is currently losing over 50B annually because it has to pay high rates to those that deposit at the Fed, which is effectively direct money printing. With so much government debt, the Fed can't raise rates much higher without adding this inflationary component. Although unemployment and bankruptcies are trending higher, the market is showing resilience. As stated above, the US economy is the most resilient, while many other countries are suffering heavily. What has been very helpful is that so far, we had strong oil production despite the war in Ukraine, while the US was releasing a lot of barrels from SPR. This strengthened consumption and boosted the economy. One important data point that proves that the US hasn't been in a recession is that the Travel Numbers of people flying in the US are at ATHs. How could someone call for a recession with these numbers? It's possible that interest rate hikes and all the printing in the US, along with a strong dollar, helped the US consumer to stay in relatively good shape. How bad do bankruptcies and unemployment get, and when? I don't know. I believe that the yield curve will eventually be right, and we will get a recession, but it's hard to call for one. Although lots of data points to the US being in a recession or close to getting into one, we haven't had proper confirmation for a downturn. Maybe we have been in a mild recession, and that's why the market is rallying so much, as people feared something awful, and this hasn't played out. Stocks 5) Stocks seem to remain in a bull market. After hitting the targets that I mentioned in some of my previous ideas, they had a mini-correction. I never turned fully bearish, but I thought at once, the SPX got at 4450 and the NDX at 15200, the market might have topped. This hasn't played out, and I must admit that the market looks bullish here. I can't say anything with certainty yet, but I'd avoid shorting or being all out. There are still many signals that point to higher stock prices. Apple just had a massive breakout and looks strong. Now at a 3T valuation, which seems too much, but when someone thinks that Apple is one of those companies that are essentially powering a 500T financial system, along with its growth potential with AI, then 3T doesn't seem that much. Although stocks seem expensive relative to the current GDP, let's not forget that AI will boost global GDP massively over the next few years. That means that tech companies like Microsoft and Google will keep expanding. Also, let's not forget that unprofitable tech deflated last year and hasn't recovered yet, so a lot of garbage got washed out and isn't a drag on the market. Finally, many people are missing something important: leverage didn't fuel this rally. The market deleveraged massively in 2022 and is now free from excess leverage. If this rally was driven by leverage, it would be fragile, and a reversal could occur at any moment. Summary To sum things up and add a few final touches... The main things leading the market are: NDX is a monopoly, AI, stock buybacks, passive investing, and government spending. It's improbable that these factors will cease to exist, and things will turn ugly immediately after the best first half the Nasdaq 100 has ever had. Sentiment might be changing and leaning toward bullish, but I am not seeing anything that's seriously worth paying attention to. Sure, maybe we get another little correction, but nothing more than that. The market looks very strong. Some leading indicators even show that liquidity and financial conditions will improve from here. I believe that too many people are stuck looking at interest rates but forget how bad the government deficits are and that the only way to keep moving forward is to print more money and accelerate growth and consumption. The NDX (Nasdaq 100) has broken above its double top in Q1 2022 and could easily sweep its Q4 2021 double top next. The index is just 11% away from new ATHs, which it could achieve in 2023.
FX:NAS100Long
by BitcoinMacro
Guide to Major Economic EventsKeeping a watchful eye on major economic events is crucial for investors and traders looking to navigate the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies, stocks, and other financial markets. By staying informed about key developments, market participants can make more informed decisions and position themselves strategically. In this article, we will provide an overview of significant economic events that can impact these markets and highlight their potential implications. 1. Economic Events Affecting Stocks : a) Central Bank Decisions : Central bank actions, such as interest rate changes, quantitative easing measures, and forward guidance, have a significant impact on stock markets. Investors should assess the rationale behind central bank decisions, analyze the potential effects on borrowing costs, market liquidity, and investor sentiment. Bullish Conclusion: Interest rate cuts or accommodative monetary policy measures can stimulate economic growth, lower borrowing costs, and potentially drive stock prices higher. Bearish Conclusion: Interest rate hikes or tighter monetary policy measures may indicate a more cautious economic outlook, potentially leading to bearish market reactions. b) Economic Indicators : Economic indicators such as GDP growth rates, inflation data, unemployment rates, and consumer sentiment reports are closely watched by stock market participants. Bullish Conclusion: Positive surprises in economic indicators, such as strong GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and high consumer confidence, can indicate a healthy economy and potentially drive stock prices higher. Bearish Conclusion: Negative surprises in economic indicators, such as weak GDP growth, high inflation, or rising unemployment rates, may signal economic weakness and potentially lead to bearish sentiments in the stock market. c) Corporate Earnings Reports : Corporate earnings reports are a critical driver of stock prices. Investors closely analyze revenue growth, earnings per share (EPS), profit margins, and forward guidance provided by companies. Bullish Conclusion: Strong earnings results, accompanied by positive forward guidance, can support bullish sentiment and drive stock prices higher. Bearish Conclusion: Disappointing earnings reports and pessimistic guidance may lead to bearish market reactions. Economic Events Affecting Cryptocurrencies : a) Regulatory Developments : Cryptocurrencies are heavily influenced by regulatory decisions and developments. Investors should closely monitor regulatory announcements and assess their potential impact on cryptocurrency adoption, trading volumes, and market values. Bullish Conclusion: Favorable regulatory developments, such as clearer guidelines and increased institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, can generate optimism and potentially boost cryptocurrency prices. Bearish Conclusion: Stricter regulations, bans, or negative regulatory developments in the cryptocurrency sector can create uncertainty and bearish sentiments among investors. b) Technological Advancements : Technological advancements and breakthroughs in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors can have a substantial impact on cryptocurrency prices. Bullish Conclusion: Positive technological advancements, such as the integration of blockchain technology into various industries or improvements in scalability and security, can generate positive market sentiments. Bearish Conclusion: Technological setbacks, security vulnerabilities, or lack of progress in the implementation of blockchain solutions may result in bearish reactions in the cryptocurrency market. Economic Events Affecting All Markets : a) Trade and Geopolitical Developments : Trade tensions, international conflicts, and geopolitical events can impact both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Investors should assess the potential consequences of trade negotiations, resolutions, or escalations of conflicts on market sentiment. Bullish Conclusion: Positive trade developments or easing geopolitical tensions can drive bullish sentiments in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Bearish Conclusion: Trade disputes or geopolitical uncertainties can create bearish market conditions across stocks and cryptocurrencies. b) Natural Disasters and Global Events : Major natural disasters, pandemics, and global events have economic repercussions that can affect both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Investors should evaluate the potential impact of these events onsupply chains, consumer behavior, and investor sentiment. Bullish Conclusion: Swift recoveries from natural disasters or positive developments in response to global events can generate bullish sentiment across stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bearish Conclusion: Economic disruptions caused by natural disasters, pandemics, or global events can lead to bearish market sentiments across both asset classes. Conclusion: Staying informed about major economic events is crucial for investors and traders aiming to navigate the complex world of cryptocurrencies, stocks, and other financial markets. By analyzing the implications of these events, investors can make more informed judgments about potential bullish or bearish market conditions. However, it's important to consider multiple factors and use additional analysis to draw conclusions about market directions. Enjoy!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BiggWigg
7
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 30, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin following the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 30500 is gyrating between the newly created Mean Res 30800 and Mean Sup 29900, suggesting its higher price advancement. The upcoming primary target is Outer Coin Rally 31700, along with Key Res of the same price. We may be experiencing a brief pause before the next Outer Coin rally, 34000, based on the current trend. Alternatively, prices could drop significantly to Mean Sup 28700 before rebounding.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$TNX in range and a comparison of Yields around 2008#Yield is moving well today. 1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr. $TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08. Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago? 10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least. The last picture shows the highs of the 2 yr and 10 yr right before the crash of 2008. Interesting that almost everything happened in the month of June. Even when it was 3 different years! Hmmm. *** Now let's compare what yields did around the 2008 crash. *** The 2yr yield peaked @ 5.28% and it did it much earlier. It was almost 2 years before the 10Yr yield did. The 2yr also formed a lower higher in 2007 (5.13%) & peaked in June 2008, much lower @ 3%, before the real crash happened. The 10yr didn't peak until June 2008. way after short term rates peaked. We also see that the peak was around 4.3%. Stocks peaked in Oct 07 and the lower high was May 2008. *** We are seeing something similar today. However, IMO everything happens faster today. We're keeping a close eye on lower highs in short term yields and we could be seeing this now. Time will tell. This data is just like other data. Just past info to help weather the current & future storms.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
8
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 16, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Reignited Rally continues to move forward this week, hitting our target Outer Index Rally 4412 and, by doing so, completing Inner Index Rally 4444. This suggests a couple of trading scenarios: The unconfirmed completion by Trade Selecter, the market severity will pull back to Mean Sup 4365, followed by a solid bounce to retest the developed and confirmed by Trade Selecter Key Res 4425. The second scenario will display Spooz regrouping within the vicinity of developing Key Res and penetrating higher by targeting Outer Index Rally 4480. Trade Selecter will closely monitor any updates and share any valid confirmation with you.  (Please note that there will be no Daily Chart Analysis for the week of June 23. The next update will be on June 30). 
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 16, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar price movement followed our projections as stated on Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of June 9 - the price action hit our initial upside target of Mean Res 1.082 and beyond by completing our Inner Currency Rally 1.096. The unconfirmed pivotal down move is in progress, with the mark aimed to mean Sup 1.080. Trade Selecter will closely monitor any updates and share any valid confirmation with you.  (Please note that there will be no Daily Chart Analysis for the week of June 23. The next update will be on June 30) . 
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 16, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin has invalidated our completed Inner Coin Dip 25800 and Mean Sup 25700. Doing so opened the down trading area envelope to Outer Coin Dip 23950. However, a reignited rally might take us to Mean Res 27300 and Mean Res 28250, respectively. Trade Selecter will closely monitor any updates and share any valid confirmation with you. (Please note that there will be no Daily Chart Analysis for the week of June 23. The next update will be on June 30) .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$EUR50 - Recession - Eurozone OANDA:EU50EUR is officially in Recession due to two consecutive negative quarters in a row. The Euro-Zone entered a Recession in the first quarter of this year and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. Having said that, its Index OANDA:EU50EUR continues to hold its head up high, but the question is, how much longer will it maintain to do so ? Will the situation get better for Europe or domino effect has just gotten started ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
OANDA:EU50EUR
by Mr_J__fx
$DXY -Wave 'B' Completed- It seems TVC:DXY found temporary Support on the Bullish Cross Over in the last Week, by testing it thrice and jumping around. Concerning is the Change of Character (CHoCH) in Wave A of A-B-C correction ; by violating the last Higher High of 103.3 (where fibb is taken). However, this may only be a small issue regarding Higher Time Frames Uptrend. Zones to watch the weekk ahead for TVC:DXY ; - Support to hold at 103.3 ; (1 Fibb' level + S/R + EMA's Area - Wave B Continuation completion after Impulsive Wave A *Resistance at 0.618 Fibb's Golden Zone (or a bit Higher zooming in on Smaller TF Order Block) - Wave C continuation putting TVC:DXY @ 102.6 fibb level and trendline
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx