Get started

Economy

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 2, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The curtailed by US holiday trading week did not surprise us; see Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of May 26. On Tuesday, after hitting our initial target Outer Index Rally 4230 and weeding out the weak longs a day later, the swift rebound on Thursday retested the 4230 again, followed up on Friday by completing our second target of extended Outer Index Rally 4285. The next upside target is major Key Res 4330 and, down the road, extended Outer Index Rally 4412. The pivotal 4230, as tooted a few weeks ago, was ultimately canceled due to price action turning south prematurely on Friday, May 19, and not confirmed by Trade Selecter's targeted movement. On the downside, the price action might take us to Mean Sup 4180; however, the upswing to Key Res 4330, within the highest probability, will emerge first.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
4
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 2, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In our Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of May 26, the euro-dollar price movement followed our projections perfectly. On May 31, the price hit our initial down target of Inner Currency Dip 1.064, followed by a dead cat bounces to our Mean Res 1.075 target last Friday. The retest of the completed Inner Currency Dip 1.064 is in progress, with the strong possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 2, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's session, the coin has achieved the projected prices of Mean Res $27,500 and Mean Res $28,750 as outlined in the Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of May 26. Based on the current price action, the coin will likely test the Inner Coin Dip of $25,800 and potentially make a significant drop to the Outer Coin Dip of $23,950. The upside potential will address the Mean Res $28,250 as a ''Do That To Me One More Time''.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 26, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's index did not surprise us with the swift rebound (Mean Sup 4110) and continued the reignited rally as specified in a previous couple of weeks of daily chart analysis. The price action is expected to reach our primary destination of the Outer Index Rally at 4230 and possible extension to Outer Index Rally 4285 and Major Key Res 4310. The pivotal at 4230 is not expected at this time unless confirmed by Trade Selecter price action within this upcoming trading week session - stay tuned.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 26, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's eurodollar price action was lower, and the current trading pattern suggests the designated target of the Inner Currency Dip is 1.064 in the making, as indicated in last week's daily chart analysis, with the possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054. We also anticipate a quick rebound to Mean Res 1.075 with the potential to reach Mean Res 1.082 upon completion of its main target.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 19, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the week, the coin's prices remained relatively stable, fluctuating between the Completed Inner Coin Dip of $25,800 and the Mean Res of $27,650. However, the emergence of a new, less significant Mean Sup of $26,750 indicates the possibility of a drop in price to the Inner Coin Dip of $25,800 or even lower to the Outer Coin Dip of $23,950. Conversely, there is currently no indication of an increase in price action to and beyond the Mean Res of $27,650 and $28,250.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
💥 WORLD ECONOMY: ...big drop is coming? 😡Amazon rarely delays deliveries, but I ordered the crystal ball over 30 years ago and it still hasn't arrived! 😢😂 ...So, I don't know what will really happen in the coming months, but what we can do right now is try to make some considerations. The chart above represents the DJ Transportation Index , an excellent "thermometer" of US economy. If we look at a monthly time frame, we see that a deep pullback appeared after a structure with "Wave 1 Extension", so we cannot exclude that it could happen again. At the same time however, we see that the Price Action has reached an important static support around 14,000, and only its failure could confirm a bearish leg with a first target around 11,000, obviously we are talking about a monthly chart, so to confirm this hypothesis, we have to wait until the end of the month. In this historical context, many things could change in global economy, and the geopolitical situation is one of the main actors of this period. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, wide social gap, the dollar crisis, are all key factors that could still lead to uncertainty in the medium term. INFLATION and THE PRICE WAR We are well aware that a large part of the developed economy is struggling with rising prices, and even if inflation in the U.S. and in Europe it is driven by different reasons, Central Banks are using the same tools (are they wrong??) of monetary policy, , but something could change in the coming months. The most important Central Bank (Federal Reserve) could face a diabolical "pincer", because the danger of hyperinflation is the same as a potential stagflation. Thanks for your attention. A.B. ❤
DJ:DJT
by TheAnonymousBanker
"De-Dollarization" is coming...?The U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and capital flows over many decades. However, many nations are looking for alternatives to the greenback to reduce their dependence on the United States. This graphic catalogs the rise of the U.S. dollar as the dominant international reserve currency, and the recent efforts by various nations to de-dollarize and reduce their dependence on the U.S. financial system. The United States became, almost overnight, the leading financial power after World War I. The country entered the war only in 1917 and emerged far stronger than its European counterparts. As a result, the dollar began to displace the pound sterling as the international reserve currency and the U.S. also became a significant recipient of wartime gold inflows. The dollar then gained a greater role in 1944, when 44 countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement, creating a collective international currency exchange regime pegged to the U.S. dollar which was, in turn, pegged to the price of gold. By the late 1960s, European and Japanese exports became more competitive with U.S. exports. There was a large supply of dollars around the world, making it difficult to back dollars with gold. President Nixon ceased the direct convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971. This ended both the gold standard and the limit on the amount of currency that could be printed. Although it has remained the international reserve currency, the U.S. dollar has increasingly lost its purchasing power since then. Russia and China’s Steps Towards De-Dollarization Concerned about America’s dominance over the global financial system and the country’s ability to ‘weaponize’ it, other nations have been testing alternatives to reduce the dollar’s hegemony. As the United States and other Western nations imposed economic sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and the Chinese government have been teaming up to reduce reliance on the dollar and to establish cooperation between their financial systems. Since the invasion in 2022, the ruble-yuan trade has increased eighty-fold. Russia and Iran are also working together to launch a cryptocurrency backed by gold, according to Russian news agency Vedmosti. In addition, central banks (especially Russia’s and China’s) have bought gold at the fastest pace since 1967 as countries move to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. How Other Countries are Reducing Dollar Dependence De-dollarization it’s a theme in other parts of the world: - In recent months, Brazil and Argentina have discussed the creation of a common currency for the two largest economies in South America. - In a conference in Singapore in January, multiple former Southeast Asian officials spoke about de-dollarization efforts underway. - The UAE and India are in talks to use rupees to trade non-oil commodities in a shift away from the dollar, according to Reuters. - For the first time in 48 years, Saudi Arabia said that the oil-rich nation is open to trading in currencies besides the U.S. dollar. Despite these movements, few expect to see the end of the dollar’s global sovereign status anytime soon. Currently, central banks still hold about 60% of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars. What will happen to the dollar in the next few years? What is your opinion? Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 5, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the week, the coin remained steady between our Mean Res $30,500, Intermediate Coin Rally of the same, and Mean Sup $27,000. It established a new soft Mean Res at $29,500 and a strong Mean Sup at $28,000, which most likely will be retested. This price action indicates that there will be robust progress in reaching the Next Outer Coin Rally point of $31,700 and, ultimately the Main Outer Coin Rally at $34,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Free Market vs The FedAs of late, the vast majority of us probably have been hearing about "too big to fail" or " a free market vs. a central market" What does all of this mean?" Well, let's go over some of the basic stuff. As in some of my prior posts, it is important to understand that the "Fed" does NOT control mortgage rates or loan rates from your local banks. Let me repeat that the Fed does NOT control mortgage rates or consumer loan rates So now you might ask yourself why the Fed raises rates matter? Well, that's a great question. Because, in short, it should not matter if we were in a free market. Well, sadly, we are not in a free market. We are in a centralized market with different flavors available to us. "Ah, but Guy, you just contradicted yourself by saying the fed does not control mortgage rates, and now you're saying we're in a controlled market rabel rabel rabel " Let me explain... The Fed cannot have any direct contact with "average" consumers; it's currently illegal FOR NOW . Now, everyone, the biggest fear with CBDC is a rightfully placed fear. And we will discuss this in a separate post. So, view the Federal Reserve's manipulation of the economy as a game of pool (billiards) or snooker; what have you. In billiards (for the purpose of the post, billiards = pool), the player cannot directly hit the numbered balls with the stick (cue). Instead, one must use a medium to engage the cue ball. So, to pocket your balls, you must have a small degree of understanding of physics to transfer energy from you to the stick to the cue ball to the desired ball into the desired pocket. The Fed (cue) is the same way. They set the FFR (cue ball), which then goes to the regional and big banks (numbered balls), which then sink into the economy (pocket) So, how does this work? To explain that, you need to understand how a bank makes money. (The Following is highly watered down for simplicity's sake) A bank does not make money because you have an account with them. On the other hand, a bank makes money BECAUSE you have an account with them. So when you use your local JPM, WFC, or C bank :) as a piggy bank, they pay you an interest rate of something like a percent of a percent; however, it's still considered a liability to the bank because that's cash flow going to you from them even if it's a penny a year. So, how can they make money then? The fractional Reserve system. Mike Maloney debates this, and I'm super interested in hearing his thoughts on this... another post for another time. What is the Fractional Reserve System? Basically, for every dollar you put into your account, the bank can lend out 10$ It's basically in place because you're not running to the bank to close your account. So, they can do this. When you put money into your account, it's already out the door into someone else's pocket in the form of a loan by the time you place your wallet in your pocket/ purse what have you. And that's probably too slow for the bank. (velocity of money) Well, that bank's balance sheet of physical liquid cash probably only is enough to pay the onsite staff hourly wage the bank needs more. so they have one of two options 1. go to the Fed and borrow money at the FFR 2. go to the repo market and borrow from another bank by offering t-bills and bonds as collateral. (shadow banking) Typically they go with number one because it's cheaper. The vast majority of times they use the repo market is for cash now! or if their risk management department is trying to make some quick cash off the bond market. (shadow banking is outside the purview of this post, and I'm still learning about it. I will post about it later) ( the fed lining up their billiard shot) So, the Fed has decided the US economy needs to grow more... (the Fed hitting the cue ball) So, lets say the Fed makes the FFR 0% (hypothetically LOL) ( the cue ball hits the numbered ball) So your local JPM will go to the Fed and take out a loan at 0%, so they need to lend this money out and make money, and make their, JPM's rate, interest rate on that money 3% LOL! (The numbered ball sinks into the desired pocket) you the consumer want to go out and buy something you can afford on your 9-5 salary. So you go to the bank and qualify for a loan at their 3% rate to be amortized over 10-30 years, and the economy grows. If that sounds familiar its coincidence LOL However, in a free market how it would work is the loan system would be heavily dependent on the local economy and local wage potential. How? If a bank is set up in an area with low-income earning potential, then the market will tell the bank exactly how much they can charge on money. Example: let's say the Risk Manager at your local WFC decides he is conservative and makes the DTI Ratio for loans 30%. That means the minimum someone must make for a 200,000$ loan is around 60,000$. If the local median income is 45,000$, no one can afford a 200,000$ loan. The maximum loan amount they can make is around 150,000$. So, for the bank to grow, it either needs to up the DTI requirements, it needs to be content with its current earnings and hope the area grows or wages increase, or it can close down and move. Now where the free market comes into play is when WFC is having their DTI at 30%, JPM is at 40%, and C is at 60%, (free market remember) in the same area as the example The following happens: WFC sees their default rate is less than 10% JPM sees thier default rate at 40% C sees thier default rate in the upper 80%. So, what this means is that the market is telling WFC they are leaving money on the table but are playing it safe. Because less people qualify for the loan JPM has almost found the sweet spot. 40% of their loans are in default, but more than half are paid on time. could use some minor tweaking but solid none the less. (With my risk tolerance, 30-35% default is a good number depending on loan size.) C is in trouble because they have lent out too much, and people can't afford that much money in the area. So in a free market, WFC will fail in the area because they're not seeing enough volume, and C will fail because they're seeing too much volume. which leaves JPM to buy up both of the failing banks and grow bigger LOL!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ARegularGuy