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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 13, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin surged above $21,000 on Saturday for the first time in two months as the crypto rammed through our Mean Res $17,000, Mean Res $17,800, Mean Res $18,500, and Outer Coin Rally $19,100 throughout the week. The price action signifies a completed Outer Coin Rally of $21,200 (Not shown - 60 min chart) and significant Key Res $21,300 first introduced Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 11. We expect a pullback to the newly created Mean Sup of $18,800. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence on the upside to retest the Outer Coin Rally of $21,200.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | January week 2, 2023Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” Furthermore, The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded by 3.3 percent in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. 2. Jerome Powell In a recent statement led by Jerome Powell, he expressed his highest level of hawkish sentiment towards the economy. He noted that inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and can require the central bank to take actions that are not necessary, but popular. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with measurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.” He wants to resolve the issue he initially created, previously, he was insistent that inflation was going to be transitory and now there is a clear indication that it is not and will require major efforts to bring it down. Why was Powell hawkish? Financial conditions are unintentionally loosening and he does not want to see it because that will increase the probability of a rebound in markets which could mean a rebound in inflation. - Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago. (Bloomberg) - “Central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue with rapid rate cuts in recessions they engineered to bring down inflation to policy targets. If anything, policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting,” a team of analysts including Jean Boivin, the head of the Institute, wrote last week. BlackRock is underweight developed market equities and it prefers investment-grade credit to long-term government bonds. - JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, which would be higher than most are expecting this year. 3. Mass Layoffs In order to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to slow down the economy. It is common sense to see that an economy will not go down until consumers stop spending which results in loss of employment. - One of Wall Street's biggest banks plans to lay off up to 3,200 employees this week, as it faces a challenging economy, a downturn in investment banking, and struggles in retail banking. It is one of the biggest rounds of layoffs at Goldman since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is having difficulties in the stock market, underperforming. - Bed Bath & Beyond reported a net loss for the quarter ending Nov. 26, 2022, of $393 million. That's a widening of 29.7% from the $276.4 million loss in the comparable quarter of 2021. Furthermore, the Q3 loss is worse than the retailer's projection last week of a $385.8 million loss. These inadequate results will lay off hundreds or thousands of employees in the company. On the other hand, the stock rallied by double digits, emphasizing again that the stock market likes when employees get fired to increase profit margins. - Coinbase announced Tuesday that it was laying off 950 people, about 20% of its staff. The job cuts come only a few months after another major round of layoffs. The crypto brokerage firm let 1,100 people go in June, about 18% of its headcount at the time. Again, the stock still rallied by double digits. It is notable to mention that the brother of the former Coinbase product manager, Nikhil Wahi, was sentenced Tuesday to 10 months for his role in a scheme to trade on confidential information about when the cryptocurrency exchange was going to list new tokens. A comparable phenomenon I start to visualize from these and recent layoffs is the 2021 stock splits. When firms announced stock splits in 2021, their stock would surge. In 2023, when a company announces layoffs, the stock surges higher (until they run out of liquidity). 4. Corporate Headline - The cyclical growth rebound, possibly triggered by the Chinese reopening, is being priced in or could go higher (major resistance at SPX $4,250). Macau sees deserted streets and Casinos after reopening (Reuters). - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. recorded its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant (Bloomberg). This issue will take months to recover as it has to adapt to the oversupplied market. - Apple is Broadcom’s largest customer and accounted for about 20% of the chipmaker’s revenue in the last fiscal year, amounting to almost $7 billion to stop buying key components, and instead, produce pieces themselves. - Blackstone Inc. lost a bid to end rent stabilization at Manhattan's largest apartment complex after a judge ruled in favor of tenants at Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village. - Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market. This is a negative signal for the housing market, prices are too high and few can afford these houses. Once homeowners realize the Fed is not going to ease interest rates anytime soon, the housing market is going to slow down dramatically and individuals are going to lose their homes. Renters and Airbnb will slow down real estate further as they will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to get rid of the houses, greatly increasing the supply. 5. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving toward positive momentum and volume remains below average (bullish). - If S&P500 breaks the sloping resistance (channel), prices will rise significantly as individuals will assume the market is already priced-in, plus, showing: a break in pattern resistance; higher-low; and bear market sentiment reducing. - This is a similar pattern to the 2000 market crash where SPX broke a major trend and resistance, then followed to fall 34%. I point out the negative indication in most of my recent analyses, this is because the negative indications are far greater than any positive singular indication in this market environment. Overall, I have not changed my outlook and I am keeping my government bonds. I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
Timing XAU shorts with Economic Calendar Event!Here is what’s happening with GOLD right now (macro view) : 1. After aggressive rate hikes by all governments, we’re now nearly guaranteed to enter a GLOBAL recession 2. During a recession, people lose jobs which means companies lose customers and hence their earnings fall 3. All of this is happening at a time when the interest payments are now at the highest level they’ve been in decades When customers can’t pay their loans + companies can’t pay their loans = governments in turn can’t pay off their loans because of the depressed tax revenue from domestic consumption and business activity. This is what’s driving gold higher; the risk of a sovereign (government) debt crisis. For the most part, developing nations will be hardest hit because they were already poor in terms of currency strength, GDP and they have a heavy debt load going into this higher rate environment. Since over 70% of the world's debt is in USD, countries have to buy USD to pay back their creditors. For this reason I expect the DXY (dollar index) rally from 2021 to pick back up later this year. Even though we normally see DXY and XAU as inversely correlated, in this kind of environment we could see both of them rallying together as some countries scramble to buy USD to pay their loans and other countries scramble to buy XAU as an insurance policy. But this doesn't mean it's going to be a one way ride higher for XAU. There will still be profit taking and re-buying which is why we are currently looking for signs to get short on the "profit taking" phase. Expecting Yields and DXY to reverse higher this week. This will be the catalyst to the larger selloff in XAU.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of January 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend to Inner Index Dip 3785 was completed two weeks ago and retested. The upside target to the Mean Res 3880 has been finalized, and the index continuously displays a bullish influence with the current market sentiment. The additional upside moves to Mean Res 4020, 4085, with Outer Index Rally 4140 currently being at the crosshair. The pullbacks with this upcoming major rally are to be expected.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of January 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar has bounced strongly from Mean Sup 1.058 as specified EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 30. The prevailing up path to the newly created Mean Res $1.070 and Key Res $1.078 is ongoing with the current market sentiment. However, be aware there is the possibility that this puppy may break downwards from Mean Res $1.070 to reignite upward action as specified above.
by TradeSelecter
The Psychology Of A Market CycleThe psychology of a market cycle refers to the emotional and psychological states that investors and traders go through as they react to market conditions. Here is a short summary of each stage of the market cycle: 🔵 Disbelief: At this stage, market participants are skeptical about the potential for a market rally or recovery. They may be hesitant to invest or trade, as they do not believe that the market has the potential to improve. 🔵 Hope: As market conditions begin to improve, investors and traders may start to feel more hopeful about the future. They may start to see opportunities for profit and become more willing to take risks. 🔵 Belief: At this stage, market participants start to believe that the market will continue to improve. They may become more confident in their investment decisions and become more willing to hold onto their positions for longer periods of time. 🔵 Euphoria: As the market continues to rise, investors and traders may become overly optimistic and start to believe that the market will continue to rise indefinitely. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and overconfidence. 🔵 Anxiety: As market conditions start to deteriorate, investors and traders may become anxious about the potential for losses. They may start to question their investment decisions and become more hesitant to take risks. 🔵 Denial: As market conditions continue to worsen, some investors and traders may start to deny that the market is in a downturn. They may continue to hold onto their positions in the hope that the market will recover. 🔵 Panic: At this stage, market participants may become panicked about the potential for further losses. They may start to sell their positions in a rush to get out of the market. 🔵 Capitulation: As market conditions reach their lowest point, investors and traders may give up hope and sell their positions, even at a loss. This is known as capitulation. 🔵 Anger: After the market has bottomed out, some investors and traders may feel angry about their losses and the perceived market manipulation or wrongdoing that they believe caused the market crash. 🔵 Depression: After experiencing significant losses, some investors and traders may feel depressed and lose motivation to engage in further investment or trading activities. 🔵 Disbelief: As market conditions begin to improve again, some investors and traders may return to a state of disbelief and skepticism about the potential for a sustained market rally. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
S&P500 - Outlook - 2023 - 1st Week of January - 4 Hour ChartS&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023 on the 4 hour chart. Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January. 1) Always have your stop loss in place. 2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering. 3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit when the market is not heading in the anticipated direction.
FX:SPX500Short
by U2Rinfinite
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 30, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin decanted closer to our Mean Sup of $16,400 throughout the week. The retest of the Key Sup $15,850 is a high probability at this time. The upward movement to retest newly created Mean Res $17,000 extending to Mean Res $17,800, Mean Res $18,500 is pending on the hitting Key Sup $15,850. However, be aware there is the possibility that this puppy may break from the current position to create upward action as specified above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Number of Sunspots and Inflation CYCLESHi friends Today im going to explain about the relationship between Sunspot Numbers and Inflation rate from 1960 to now. so lets start with inventor of this theory : William Stanley Jevons's In 1875 and 1878 Jevons read two papers before the British Association which expounded his famous "sunspot theory" of the business cycle. Digging through mountains of statistics of economic and meteorological data, Jevons argued that there was a connection between the timing of commercial crises and the solar cycle. it called 5.31-Year Cycle too. In the stock market and in the economy, there are both natural frequencies and artificial excitation frequencies. The four-year presidential election cycle is a great example of an excitation frequency, and it has demonstrable effects on stock prices. The schedule of FOMC meetings 8x per year is another possible example of an artificial excitation frequency. When a demonstrable cycle period appears that one cannot tie to some manmade excitation frequency, then the supposition is that it is a "natural" frequency of the economic system. Something about the economy or the market results in an oscillation on a certain frequency which may not have a good outside explanation. Perhaps it is in how money flows. Perhaps it is in how human brains make decisions about surplus and scarcity. It is hard to know. This 5.31-year frequency in the CPIs cycle seems to fall into that category as a natural cycle, because the 5.31-year period does not match any known excitation frequency related to human activity nor the economic calendar. So that makes it probably a natural frequency. In above chart , there does seem to be a relationship between sunspots and the inflation rate. We see lots of instances when the peak of the sunspot cycle coincided with the peak of the inflation rate. There have been spikes in the inflation rate not tied to the sunspot cycle, such as the spike during the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74. this examples did, interestingly, come at the halfway point of the sunspot cycle, fitting the half-period harmonic principle(5.31 year cycle). The current rise in inflation fits both the longstanding 5.31-year cycle and the upswing in the sunspot cycle. Solar researchers expect the current sunspot cycle rise to end in July 2025, which is 3 years from now. But the 5.31-year cycle says a top in the inflation rate is expected right now. That would mean seeing the inflation rate bottoming around 2025 just as the sunspot cycle is peaking. Sometimes cycles present us with conflicts that are hard to reconcile. The point of the 5.31-year cycle that we can take away for right now is that the inflation rate should be falling for the next ~2.2 years. But that does not mean we get to zero percent inflation right away. The drops take a while to unfold. Inflation is likely with us for a while, and we have to get used to that idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
10Y Rate - Headed HigherToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1W linear scale chart for 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX). In December 2021, I posted a chart showing that the 10Y rate was going to go much higher. I was exactly on point almost to the exact number. Today I was reviewing the 10Y rate chart and saw the RSI formed a double bottom base with the 10Y rate ready to make another move higher. I also added in the Keltner Channel indicator which shows that when the 10Y rate is higher than the median line, there is a strong chance it touches the top of the Keltner Channel. I see the 10Y as well as other long term rates going much higher as shown in the chart. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
1
#DXY Potential for Short Position at 97.53 Support LevelThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The index is calculated by taking the weighted average of the exchange rates of the currencies in the basket. Factors that can influence the value of the DXY include interest rates, economic growth, and geopolitical events, among others. Traders and investors may analyze the DXY chart in search of support and resistance levels, which are areas where the price has previously struggled to break through or where it has been rejected. These levels can be useful indicators for identifying potential turning points in the market. However, it's important to note that these levels are not guaranteed and can be broken or tested multiple times before the market ultimately moves in a particular direction. In the case mentioned, a potential support level at 97.53 was identified, and it was suggested that it might be a good idea to go short in the market at this level and retest the support. It's important to carefully consider the risks involved in any investment and to conduct your own research and analysis before making any decisions. It's also a good idea to consult with a financial advisor or professional.
TVC:DXYShort
by moalsarafandi
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 23, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend sentiment to Inner Index Dip 3785 has been completed as specified in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 16 . The upside target to the newly created Mean Res 3880 is in play, with the additional upside moving to Mean Res 4020, 4085 with Outer Index Rally 4140 currently being revived per the current market sentiment. The pullbacks with this upcoming major rally are to be expected.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 23, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar stays put under our Mean Res 1.0680. The prevailing down path points to the Mean Sup 1.0470, and extended probabilities to Mean Sup 1.0330 is a high degree of certainty. However, the upside move to retest Mean Res 1.0680 and Key Res $1.0780 is possible within the current market sentiment. Of course, the question is always, 'Which way will this puppy break from the current position?'.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation stable See the reverse of Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀 Do we see the next Top in PCE and a following #bullish momentum for BTC dear Crypto Nation😎 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
FRED:PCETRIM12M159SFRBDALLong
by Crypto4Everybody
⚫️Existing Home Sales🔵Home prices🔴Top S&P500Not an easy chart but give it a try dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation Look at connections of different Tops in financial crisis 2008 and possible hints for near future: ⚫️Top Existing Home Sales precursor of 🔵Top Home prices precursor of 🔴Top S&P500 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
ECONOMICS:USEHS
by Crypto4Everybody