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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 30, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin decanted closer to our Mean Sup of $16,400 throughout the week. The retest of the Key Sup $15,850 is a high probability at this time. The upward movement to retest newly created Mean Res $17,000 extending to Mean Res $17,800, Mean Res $18,500 is pending on the hitting Key Sup $15,850. However, be aware there is the possibility that this puppy may break from the current position to create upward action as specified above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Number of Sunspots and Inflation CYCLESHi friends Today im going to explain about the relationship between Sunspot Numbers and Inflation rate from 1960 to now. so lets start with inventor of this theory : William Stanley Jevons's In 1875 and 1878 Jevons read two papers before the British Association which expounded his famous "sunspot theory" of the business cycle. Digging through mountains of statistics of economic and meteorological data, Jevons argued that there was a connection between the timing of commercial crises and the solar cycle. it called 5.31-Year Cycle too. In the stock market and in the economy, there are both natural frequencies and artificial excitation frequencies. The four-year presidential election cycle is a great example of an excitation frequency, and it has demonstrable effects on stock prices. The schedule of FOMC meetings 8x per year is another possible example of an artificial excitation frequency. When a demonstrable cycle period appears that one cannot tie to some manmade excitation frequency, then the supposition is that it is a "natural" frequency of the economic system. Something about the economy or the market results in an oscillation on a certain frequency which may not have a good outside explanation. Perhaps it is in how money flows. Perhaps it is in how human brains make decisions about surplus and scarcity. It is hard to know. This 5.31-year frequency in the CPIs cycle seems to fall into that category as a natural cycle, because the 5.31-year period does not match any known excitation frequency related to human activity nor the economic calendar. So that makes it probably a natural frequency. In above chart , there does seem to be a relationship between sunspots and the inflation rate. We see lots of instances when the peak of the sunspot cycle coincided with the peak of the inflation rate. There have been spikes in the inflation rate not tied to the sunspot cycle, such as the spike during the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74. this examples did, interestingly, come at the halfway point of the sunspot cycle, fitting the half-period harmonic principle(5.31 year cycle). The current rise in inflation fits both the longstanding 5.31-year cycle and the upswing in the sunspot cycle. Solar researchers expect the current sunspot cycle rise to end in July 2025, which is 3 years from now. But the 5.31-year cycle says a top in the inflation rate is expected right now. That would mean seeing the inflation rate bottoming around 2025 just as the sunspot cycle is peaking. Sometimes cycles present us with conflicts that are hard to reconcile. The point of the 5.31-year cycle that we can take away for right now is that the inflation rate should be falling for the next ~2.2 years. But that does not mean we get to zero percent inflation right away. The drops take a while to unfold. Inflation is likely with us for a while, and we have to get used to that idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
10Y Rate - Headed HigherToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1W linear scale chart for 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX). In December 2021, I posted a chart showing that the 10Y rate was going to go much higher. I was exactly on point almost to the exact number. Today I was reviewing the 10Y rate chart and saw the RSI formed a double bottom base with the 10Y rate ready to make another move higher. I also added in the Keltner Channel indicator which shows that when the 10Y rate is higher than the median line, there is a strong chance it touches the top of the Keltner Channel. I see the 10Y as well as other long term rates going much higher as shown in the chart. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
1
#DXY Potential for Short Position at 97.53 Support LevelThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The index is calculated by taking the weighted average of the exchange rates of the currencies in the basket. Factors that can influence the value of the DXY include interest rates, economic growth, and geopolitical events, among others. Traders and investors may analyze the DXY chart in search of support and resistance levels, which are areas where the price has previously struggled to break through or where it has been rejected. These levels can be useful indicators for identifying potential turning points in the market. However, it's important to note that these levels are not guaranteed and can be broken or tested multiple times before the market ultimately moves in a particular direction. In the case mentioned, a potential support level at 97.53 was identified, and it was suggested that it might be a good idea to go short in the market at this level and retest the support. It's important to carefully consider the risks involved in any investment and to conduct your own research and analysis before making any decisions. It's also a good idea to consult with a financial advisor or professional.
TVC:DXYShort
by moalsarafandi
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 23, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend sentiment to Inner Index Dip 3785 has been completed as specified in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 16 . The upside target to the newly created Mean Res 3880 is in play, with the additional upside moving to Mean Res 4020, 4085 with Outer Index Rally 4140 currently being revived per the current market sentiment. The pullbacks with this upcoming major rally are to be expected.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 23, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar stays put under our Mean Res 1.0680. The prevailing down path points to the Mean Sup 1.0470, and extended probabilities to Mean Sup 1.0330 is a high degree of certainty. However, the upside move to retest Mean Res 1.0680 and Key Res $1.0780 is possible within the current market sentiment. Of course, the question is always, 'Which way will this puppy break from the current position?'.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation stable See the reverse of Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀 Do we see the next Top in PCE and a following #bullish momentum for BTC dear Crypto Nation😎 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
FRED:PCETRIM12M159SFRBDALLong
by Crypto4Everybody
⚫️Existing Home Sales🔵Home prices🔴Top S&P500Not an easy chart but give it a try dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation Look at connections of different Tops in financial crisis 2008 and possible hints for near future: ⚫️Top Existing Home Sales precursor of 🔵Top Home prices precursor of 🔴Top S&P500 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
ECONOMICS:USEHS
by Crypto4Everybody
Shorting Palladium FuturesPalladium is in a strong downtrend right now. In fact, in the Trend Following Market Trends Barometer , it is the strongest trend with a value of over 70%. We are opening short positions at market price with a very strong risk management metric - as always - aiming to surf the downtrend and lose only 0.5% of our portfolio value if there is a pullback. Our target is around 1505, but the exit will be through volatility and trailing stops. As we can see, the trend has an RSI of 39.70 on the weekly chart. It is below the 210, 70 and 14 SMA's, and has broken a trend line support. There are opportunities to follow the trend. We can open more positions further if the trend remains bearish and close them on a percentage basis if sharp pullbacks occur. Again, it depends on volatility and trailing stops. The system is automated. Product. Palladium futures (NYMEX). No CFDs or other OTC derivatives for now. Position: Sell, market price. Stop loss: around 1 800 (trailing stop, we can re-enter if there is a pullback). Target: Around 1 500 (we won't manually close, the TL stop will). Resizing: We can open more positions if the trend is strong. Risk: High.
NYMEX:PA1!Short
by blockmas
ECONOMIC CYCLE & INTEREST RATESHello traders and future traders! The state of an economy can be either growing or shrinking. When an economy is growing, it typically leads to improved conditions for individuals and businesses. Conversely, when an economy is shrinking or experiencing a recession, it can have negative consequences. The central bank works to maintain a stable level of inflation and support moderate economic growth through the management of interest rates. What is an economic cycle? An economic cycle refers to the fluctuations or ups and downs in economic activity over a period of time. These cycles are typically characterized by periods of economic growth and expansion, followed by periods of contraction or recession. Economic cycles are often measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators, such as employment, consumer spending, and business investment. Economic cycles can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, shifts in consumer and business confidence, and changes in global economic conditions. Economic cycles can also be influenced by external events, such as natural disasters or political instability. Understanding economic cycles is important for businesses, governments, and individuals, as it helps them anticipate and prepare for changes in the economy and make informed decisions about investment, hiring, and other economic activities. How is an economic cycle related to interest rates? Interest rates can be an important factor in the economic cycle . During a period of economic expansion, demand for credit typically increases, as businesses and consumers borrow money to make investments and purchases. As a result, interest rates may rise to control the demand for credit and prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can also encourage saving, which can help to balance out the increased spending that often occurs during an economic expansion. On the other hand, during a period of economic contraction or recession, demand for credit tends to decline, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about borrowing and spending. In response, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate demand for credit and encourage economic activity. Lower interest rates can also make borrowing cheaper and more attractive, which can help to boost spending and support economic growth. Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the economic cycle can be complex and dynamic, and the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates can depend on a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and the goals and objectives of central banks and other policy makers. I hope you leant something new today!
Education
by m_maia14
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 16, 2022Outer Index Rally 4140 is currently being shelved. The downtrend sentiment points to a newly created Inner Index Dip 3785, with the possibility of extension to Mean Sup 3720. The Mean Sup 3860 is a stronghold for the time being, as specified in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 9. The upside target to the Mean Res 3912 is likely from the current position or once the dip is completed. Of course, the question is, “From which support/outcome level will this puppy break enacting finalization of the down movement?
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 16, 2022The euro-dollar rip through our Mean Res 1.0585 but could not punch to vital Key Res $1.0780. The newly created interim Mean Res 1.0680 is the catalyst to draw the currency to retest the Mean Res 1.0680 and hit the Key Res $1.0780 in the process. The prevailing down path points to the Mean Sup 1.0450 and mildly extended probabilities to Mean Sup 1.0330. However, once the current down sentiment occurs, a furious decline to the additional Mean Support levels may likely happen. Of course, the question is, “From which support level will this puppy break playing down movement position?
by TradeSelecter
No secret‼️👀😉🔴inflation🔵rate⚫️marketsNo secret‼️👀😉 🔴inflation up⬆️ 🔵rate hikes⬆️ ⚫️markets down⬇️ 🔴inflation down⬇️ 🔵rate cuts⬇️ ⚫️markets up⬆️ Bitcoin and Crypto equal markets like DowJones NASDAQ and Co Chart 1 1972 - 1986 Chart 2 current situation - see update What do YOU expect in points of inflation? Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
TVC:DJI
by Crypto4Everybody
1
$SPX 3 Day Chart 2008 GFC Crash OverlayHistory never repeats but sometimes rhymes right? 2008 MBS bubble dropped the S&P 500 56% from the ATH, assuming we have an everything bubble after 6+ Trillion QE injection since 2020, I see similarities to the Great Financial Crises. Powell made it very clear yesterday, more hikes for longer if inflation is not brought down to 2% target so how will they ever pivot without dropping inflation quickly? Inflation YOY around 7% "according to CPI" assures corporate earnings collapse going forward IMO, so I think the market is over priced Early Pivot or no Pivot. Laszlo, MMGinvest 12/15/2022
SP:SPX
by Laszlo-MMG
4
Why the CPI Report Matters and Could be a Bullish Catalyst As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a lower CPI report is more likely in the near-term than a tick up in inflation, with a possible higher than 50bp increase and a decline in equites, it could go either way. Later, when the lagging effects of QT are felt, I expect a further decline in the market as discussed in my previous thesis. It is also possible that inflation stays near its current 7.7%, in which case there may not be too large of a response in equity markets tomorrow. The bigger the move in CPI, the bigger the move in equites. VIX is inching up in anticipation of this binary event. I am linking this thesis with "long" because I believe the negative CPI trend will continue and result in a near-term rally, but this is only because I feel there is a higher probability of this occurring, not that it is by any means certain. InTheMoney
AMEX:SPYLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
Economic Outlook for 10-15 years aheadMy Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead The rare double-dip recession October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be expected in disinflationary period is stock market drawdown will continue, rising unemployment, more business entities will collapse, fewer job openings, in short 2023 will be dark especially in the US. Technically it is a recession. The good news is inflation can be pushed back to 2% area and from there QE can be restarted. Most people that already tired by long economic drawdown are strongly craving for bull market. Productivity will rise again along with its economic and secondary leverage and a creeping up inflation leaving the 2% area. An inherent nature of capitalism. The question is what will be the destiny of Petrodollar as its losing control over the total international trade volume. The rapid change of global power dynamics which spearheaded by BRICS+ economy has substantially diminish the Dollar hegemony. The regional powers that have control over the world commodities are grouping up to create a new, commodity-backed currency. In addition to that there is a strongly rising tension between Russia and NATO. More than 50 years ago, the US left the Bretton-Woods System and to keep the US dollar relevant as global reserve currency, Petrodollar was introduced and rapidly embraced by the OPEC which consequently making the US Dollar became the world's most traded currency. That is the underlying value of the Dollar besides of debt. But the current astronomical $30+ Trillion of government debt and the weakening of Petrodollar globally has come to a critical question of what will be the next US decisive move? Chaos has to be applied first to disrupt any potential challenger to the US Dollar, and from there a revolutionary economic policy has to be implemented. Worst case scenario is the new Great Depression can manifest after almost 100 years since its first occurrence in 1929. Note: This economic outlook which also the same with any version of economic outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This post is mean for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPX
by derahmanov