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Economy

Oil markets and demand destruction.The Russia & Ukraine kerfuffle is opening a gap in supply and demand since February 24th with their invasion. G7 countries will have a common interest in bringing the conflict to a close as the effects begin to weigh on the economy more generally. Emerging markets can take advantage of the situation and build out their consumption infrastructure with cover of high prices. There is a 3.5-4.5 million barrel deficit in supply caused by the Ukraine war. Currently, this deficit is filled by SPR releases from the strategic stockpiles. Crack spreads are widening as demand changes for refined products. There is an 8-9% rise every year in energy consumption world wide due mostly to emerging markets. Market price signals at work. Supply is down rapidly so prices go up followed by demand going away due to high prices and demand destruction occurs either temporarily or long term. Due to sanctions, this particular demand destruction is probably more long-term. Simply put oil gets expensive so people drive less. Miles driven has been dropping for a long time with the rise of SUVs and dropped off a cliff with the pandemic before then recovering. There has been an 8% drop in gas sales in California due to electric cars. General demand destruction is starting to sink in but hasn't gotten a hold yet. Electric cars spreading creates permanent demand destruction thus long-term shorts on oil and gas based energy are good for both the investor and the planet. That being said recent shorts haven't been a good play as the price of oil likely remains elevated or flat through this recession due to the current geopolitical factors at play combined with the inflation narrative. If inflation comes down but remains elevated and supply picks up prices will neutralize and cancel out the forces before turning around completely like lumber. Emerging markets are still the greatest marginal consumer of oil and petroleum products. Such markets demand more energy every year for their growning and modernizing economies. China is currently seeing their transition away due to their malaca problem and has given themselves until 2030 to peak emissions with net-Zero in 2060. India is on the rise and needs to balance energy needs with geopolitical concerns such as an anti-China coalition with the west because something something the specter of communism. What else is new? Africa has just begun their transition to high energy needs along with South Amercia. Fundamental Bearish narratives emerging out of China are weighing on the market but having little effect quite yet. Flight numbers are way down for instance and the real estate kerfuffle continues. However the models were built to predict capitalism so they may not apply perfectly here. India continues to buy Russian crude due to need and that's got the west in a tizzy due to the aforementioned ghost of Christmas past. At least its oil and not their massive coal reserves. Oil might be the key to getting the FED to turn around due to the feedback loop between politicians and the reserve. The market seems to sense this relationship. Any bull thesis will rely on government incompetence on energy narratives. The squabble between political interests will only continue until we can quantify the externalities at play. Let's not rearange the deck chairs on the titanic and focus on the problem. The oil energy industry has lost money on long term investments for year's and finally made some due to the current unique political situation and the pandemic. Politicians need political support from environmentalists so they reasonably take profits from and industry causing externalities for the rest of us. Except for in the good old USA, as we like to ride our nukes into the ground like a bucking bronco thank you very much. Energy corporate profit haircuts accelerate the long term demand destruction which in this authors opinion is a good thing. short term we have elevated prices that will peak and drop as the recession narrative sinks in reinforcing the demand destruction reminding everyone why relying on gas prices at the pump might be a bad political strategy long term. Coming out of the recession the destruction might be permanent reductions in consumption in Europe combined with rising consumption in emerging markets canceling each other out. In short the bearish narrative on the wider market is currently driven by the energy narratives. The market is seeking a way to get the FED to print more free money. Oil prices remaining elevated causing a slow down in the market everyone can blame on a geo political kerfuffle in Ukraine and economic down turn in China, the ghost of christmas future that fits their various energy narratives looks like the current best candidate. Thus elevated crude prices will continue before collapsing with the market as recession becomes the narrative. Ride the short after the turn. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GreatScottTheMoon
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
Meta analysis Long term.Meta is the big bet made by Facebook to corner the market on digital devices hardware currently causing problems for their other business models. The whole effort is a data wolf in sheep's clothing and precisely why they will compete long term with a decentralized metaverse from one of the big web 3 players the sandbox, decentraland, and the other side among possible other competitors in web 3. In short Facebook and its various platforms compete with digital content companies of various backgrounds for the 18-29-year-old audience. They do so with various products such as Video, Messenger, Whatsapp, Groups, Search, Workplace, marketplace, etc. These software services want to collect data to sell to advertisers to predict what an individual will want. This requires knowing more about a person than usually they know. The problem for Facebook (now Meta) is that they don't control the devices this data is generated on. Apple and Google do and they don't take kindly to a data leech on their business model. Since they control hardware decisions Meta is up a creek when decisions like IOS 14 allow you to turn off the data gathering. This is Metas' biggest problem and why oculus is so important. Snapchat challenged Facebook with filters and private messages and expiring messages capturing marketing dollars so facebook built a clone, stories, and Instagram. Tik Tok challenged Facebook on short video stories capturing marketing dollars so Facebook built a clone, reels. The bet is that metaverse interactions through either VR or AR will be the big new thing after short-form video as the primary method of interaction on the internet. Meta wants to not just be ahead of their next competitor and out of cloning and catching up territory but fully into controlling the hardware that is used to interact with such systems. Horizon is their metaverse world which one can access through either oculus or eventual AR equipment through their partnership with Luxottica. This is the pivot to Meta and much like other tech stocks, it has been hammered by the early stages of the current recession. Meta has big hoops to get through such as onboarding a population of users who need new hardware, and their future is rocky due to the past relationships with data from Facebook. The future will see Meta compete with the global decentralized blockchain web 3 metaverses for control of the digital twin infrastructure represented by NFTs controlled by self-sovereign identities or DAOs in a fully digital economy that directs resources of automated systems of production. The problem for Meta, in the opinion of this author, is they only seem aware of the interaction part of the business model for profit. They want data to sell to other companies. Meta doesn't seem to grasp the macro implications for the profit motive of production that a Metaverse enables. astoundingly, they're thinking too small. Centralized Corporations will be most challenged and supplanted by DAOs given enough time in a sufficiently decentralized metaverse. There is a possibility that a subset of DAOs enabled by quadratic voting can capture immensely profitable internet functions of the modern world. In time due to competition on price and thus profit margin, some DAOs will rise to multi-national levels. Some DAOs could become big enough and faceless enough to rend populations from their governments by challenging the interests of power. Government regulation of such DAOs will be difficult if neigh impossible, especially if profit margins of too big to fail entities are to be maintained. In such a world DAOs would hold the keys to data that participants in the DAO contribute. Some subset of such DAOs would for profit sell their data to advertisers in ways voted on by the DAO members. Precursors to this exist already such as Brave and their token BAT. Corporations destabilize government decision-making for their gain in a system designed as their sandbox. This author suspects DAOs as a disrupting force, are a possibility among the larger outcomes of various crypto ecosystems and their synergies in the long term. An exponential change in adoption of crypto more broadly could have that scenario happen sooner rather than later. But on the scale of decades, it's a distinct possibility. For Meta, the question is can you own anything in such a world and sell it to anyone else, including data, or are they just happy to make a profit for now before that transition occurs? Do they play whack-a-mole with crypto project models much like their other competitors Snap and TikTok? Whatever happens it'll be fun to watch zuck and his bucks while we make alien memes for the next few decades at least. All the best, see you on the moon.
NASDAQ:META
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
THE VALUE AREA ON BTCUSDT / BE CAREFULL HELLO GUYS for long-term investors, I highly advise you to be very careful the markets are still very bullish although The Federal Reserve said the US is in a technical recession , which means there is manipulation so be careful and don't let your emotions have an impact on your decisions and keep in mind to pay a huge attention to economic indicators, sentiment analysis and fundamentals personally, I would buy only in the value area in the chart don't take this as financial advice, do your own research
Short
by Raees_
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For July 29, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: After completing on July 20 our Outer Coin Rally of $24,150 and retreating to Mean Sup $20,780 (See Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For July 22), Bitcoin bounced back to competed Coin Rally and showing signs of extending its rally to Outer Coin Rally #27,800. However, if all fails, the coin will take us back down to Mean Sup $20,780, with a strong possibility to Key Sup $18,900 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Does WING's Earnings Bounce Have Legs?WING has been an interesting story in the restaurant sector over the past 7 years. Wingstop has experienced above-average growth in both top and bottom line figures over this timeframe. Let us explore why this is the case and where the stock may go from here... Fundamentals: WING's fundamentals are nightmarish. Incredibly high levels of debt (likely why WING has been able to expand so quickly), negative stockholders equity, 17% of shares float are short, a forward P/E of 70, yoy revenue beginning to stall with current year-end revenue expectations up only 2-3% from 2021 year-end. WING's total liabilities make up more than double its total assets. The company is grossly overvalued, Wingstop's intrinsic value is roughly 35-45 dollars a share. This bounce off of earnings is unsustainable, to say the least. The company did not even post a beat, and its shares surge 20%... this move simply does not make sense. Technicals: Long-term uptrend still intact. This will change if a move below the A trend line occurs. Currently, WING is struggling to break above the short-term bearish trend line labeled as B . A touch at 128.43 resistance and a quick retreat back to trend line B leads me to believe this is a temporary bull run in what is a longer-term downtrend for WING. Global macro conditions: Tightening of financial conditions, supply chain woes, war, sanctions, Supply crunches in energy commodities, climate crises, hot inflation, political unrest, and sovereign default concerns intensifying -along with other factors- all play a role in a rapidly worsening macroeconomic narrative. These factors are often talked about by economists but I fear they are overlooked in cases such as these when the market rewards a weak growth stock such as WING with a massive bounce in price off of an average earnings report, all during an unprecedentedly difficult global economy. Targets: Unclear as to when WING will significantly fall in price. I think the deterioration of financial markets over the next few years will be serious- things will get worse and stay worse for longer than expected- and companies with trash fundamentals like WING will be the first to suffer. Needless to say, I would be short WING if given an option. I see a fall to 113.92 as a short-term lock. Longer term I expect a choppy downward trade from lower support levels to lower support levels eventually forming fresh lows at the 49.89 support level. Seems like a bit of a wild prediction I'm sure, but this is what I see. As always this is not trading advice, good luck!
NASDAQ:WINGShort
by Gooby_Trades