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Macro study of U.S. economy - Market warning signals?They do not scream "SELL" just yet, but these indicators offer strong caution of further market correction. Please take some time to study the charts so you understand the story they tell. I am not an economist; I am a trader who has been learning more about bonds and macro indicators. (I have ignored the pandemic drop because it was extraneous to normal economic factors that move markets.) ISM Manufacturing > A leading indicator - below 50 indicates contraction > Peak expansion in 2021 seems to have ended, yet wages have risen - this will pinch corporate profits > If next month is lower, it indicates further slowdown (slowing expansion) > Texas manufacturing for Jan'22 showed concerning declines > Note the readings below 50 from Aug-Dec 2019 indicated a problem. Covid-19 did not cause markets to drop; it exaggerated the move. HYG high yield bond ETF > Includes many junk bonds - indicative of economy's credit situation (corporate, municipal, consumer) > Yellow lines show the beginning of a significant drop that indicated worsening credit conditions > Note the "valleys" below 85 match with SPY corrections > Will this keep dropping to 81-80? CCI - Consumer Confidence Index > A leading indication of people's optimism about economy > Red rectangles show significant drops that corresponded with SPY correction > Does most recent CCI drop reflect more SPY correction?
ECONOMICS:USCCIEducation
by OptionsRising
4
(US30 4H) Yes... A little dramatic but US30 If we can't hold support I see a 20% correction then we will see how people feel after that. We have been going up since I have been born lol. Another big dip would defiantly improve its chances in making a new all time highs for the future, but feel detrimental short term. KEY LEVELS: SUPPORT - 34000 MORE SUPPORT - 29092 THE VERY WORST POSSIBILITY BUT... If we see a DAILY candle break below this red line (33,140) We're Ducked quack quack Happy Friday Traders
OANDA:US30USD
by andreleonard98
The Bourne Ultimatum - Which Path?Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? CURRENCYCOM:US100 CAPITALCOM:US100 OANDA:NAS100USD BLACKBULL:NAS100 SKILLING:NASDAQ GLOBALPRIME:NAS100 FRED:NASDAQCOM NASDAQ:NDAQ NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX TVC:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD FXOPEN:SPXM EIGHTCAP:SPX500 FOREXCOM:SPXUSD AMEX:SPY BCBA:SPY FINRA:SPY_SHORT_VOLUME OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER TVC:PLATINUM TVC:PALLADIUM TVC:USOIL BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL NASDAQ:NCI
U
by MaverickTrading
Will S&P 500 retest an important former breakout area this week?As you can see from the chart, there is a very obvious line of resistance that was broken two weeks ago during the Santa Claus rally. A line that held as resistance multiple times over the course of 1.5 months. The S&P is notorious for testing prior breakout and breakdown areas, especially when it is as important as this one and it was breached during a genuinely positive time in the market with lower volume. I'm neither bullish or bearish on the S&P. What I do know is that the S&P is going to come back to that breakout point at some time. It's too important not to revisit because it caused multiple rejections and a lot of volatility off that resistance. That markets love to test these important areas. Price can go higher and stay extended for some time. Eventually it should correct down to test the line. Scenario A - Bullish: If price manages to get above the resistance and test the line and continue up, that's a buy. Scenario B - Also Bullish: If price bounces off the important trend line, that's a buy. Scenario C - Bearish: If the line does not hold as support, look for a rejection off the line, that's a sell. Do not use real money to trade my idea. This is just fun for me to analyze and share my view of the market. Good luck
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
4
TNX - 10 YR T-Note Yield - Overblown?This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still look like crud, barely hanging on minus over 30% and still tired. Stocks looking real good in terms of quarterly money flows. This recent pull back looks like profit taking to me (maybe another 5% down and reverse but I think we are near the end of the correction. Oil also holding up and actually creeping higher, suggesting demand remains (for now); again, we know that the American consumer IN 2007 - FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - was able to support $100+ / barrel oil. Today we are tickling $86 / barrel. Fear sells. Listen to the data. God Bless. #GoChiefs!
TVC:TNX
by ChiefMacro
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For January 14, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin price only just managed to hold on to the significant support of Outer Coin Dip $40,000, and Key Sup $40,700 - With the price moving up to $43,900, and for now, it is holding about $43,000 level. The current course designates an up move to the Outer Coin Rally $46,350 and most likely Mean Res $47,700 and the near future $50,950 - thereby pending potential retest of the Mean Sup $41,500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
2
Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (CARDANO's representation)Above is a comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet (originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency ADA's current price action/movement. Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
Gold (GLD) is set for a major breakout to the upside!In this article I will explain why we at Dow Experts Finance have recently increased our exposure in our corporate investment portfolio to Gold by buying into the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust, what our economic projections are for 2022 and why we believe that investors need to be highly cautious in the coming months. The last more than a decade has been defined by a generally loose monetary and fiscal policy with artificially low interest rates, Quantitative Easing (QE), falling bond yields and consistently rising stock prices. We discussed all of these components, their inter-correlation and dependence in our detailed macro analysis published back on June 29th, 2021, where we accurately predicted the strong appreciation of the USD in the 2nd half of 2021, despite the fact that the broad consensus in the market at the time was for a weaker US dollar throughout 2021. You're welcome. Now, it’s time for us to share with you our analysis and thoughts on where we see the global economy, interest rates, inflation, bonds yields and of course stock prices heading in 2022. We believe that having the right macro economic framework and understanding of how leading economic forces and indicators affect the demand for money as well as goods and services globally is essential for being successful as an investor in these highly complex times. Being able to recognize major trends, correlations and structural changes allows you to efficiently optimize and re-balance your investment portfolio in a way that will ultimately help you to stay one step ahead of the market. Today's analysis will focus exclusively on Gold, as we will be releasing our full macro investing outlook for this year in the coming weeks and we don't want to overlap too many things between the two articles. At any rate, our full macro investing outlook paper will present you with a much deeper dive, showing you where we see the best trading and investing opportunities in 2022 and beyond. The Technical Set-Up Apart from the great cup and handle technical formation on the monthly chart, which is a strong BULLISH continuation pattern, GLD is also expected to receive a meaningful boost from a weakening US DOLLAR and the elevated levels of inflation that we expect to see in the US moving forward. The Cup & Handle technical pattern currently in play has been forming since the lows at around $40/oz set all the way back in 2005. As you can see on the chart below the price action has been characterized by a sharp price rise in Stage 1; a corrective phase with the formation of a broad base, Stage 2; another strong rally (Stage 3) taking the price back to the highs reached in Stage 1; a minor profit taking correction (Stage 4). This is a textbook set up for a meaningful multi-year rally for Gold, especially considering the fact that it is on the monthly chart. The new mandate of the Fed The Federal Reserve has shifted its growth mandate to a price mandate at the end of 2021, which means that achieving price stability and lower inflation readings is now a more important goal than chasing growth and pushing equity markets higher with artificially low interest rates and generally loose monetary policy conditions. So, what does that mean? It means that in the event of a sharp correction in the US equity markets caused by the expected strong tightening in monetary policy conditions, the Fed will be less likely to jump in to the rescue of equities by lowering the benchmark interest rates and resuming its QE program (as it did back in March of 2020). Reason being, such actions would simply throw gasoline in the inflation fires in the economy. The current environment - We have highly inflated US equity markets sitting at all-time highs; - A weakening US Dollar with a descending triangle formation on the monthly chart with 4 rate hikes already priced in for 2022, thus leaving it a very limited fundamentally supported upside from here. In case the Fed is unable to complete all 4 interest rate hikes in 2022 and/or interest rate expectations start shifting for whatever reason, the US dollar will experience a major sell-off. - A high inflation up until now mainly driven by supply-chain bottlenecks, which is expected to stay relatively high in the foreseeable future. - The weakening US Dollar will further increase the inflation in the US economy for the following reasons: Import prices will rise causing a degree of imported inflation The rise in aggregate demand from cheaper exports The fall in the value of the dollar may reduce the incentives for firms to cut costs because they get an ‘easy’ improvement in competitiveness. Therefore, a fall in the dollar may harm long-term competitiveness. - A hawkish Federal Reserve with a price mandate instead of a growth mandate - Unfavorable demographic trend with the highest ever number of people expected to leave the workforce in 2022 (baby boomers retiring). Conclusion We believe that the Federal Reserve is already way behind the curve with its tapering and tightening efforts as it is still technically injecting liquidity into the market with over $60 billion worth of assets bought this month alone. Moving forward, after concluding its tapering process in March, 2022 the Fed will make an attempt to catch up with the running inflation, but will still be somewhat limited in terms of the actual pace of policy tightening as they would not want to sent the economy into a deep and prolonged recession. Furthermore, with the excessive amounts of credit injected into the system over the last few years, the Fed is well aware that if asset prices collapse dramatically, that would mean that the collateral of these record levels of public and private debt will go down, reducing personal wealth and making it much more difficult for borrowers to service their loans. In addition to that, if inflation stays relatively elevated for prolonged periods of time that will also eat away from the purchasing power of consumers, thus making their wages and earnings less valuable. So we might be heading towards an economic environment where, asset prices come down as a result of tightening of monetary policy conditions, rates go up but fail to completely subdue the raging inflation as they are simply starting from a very low level (0.25%) and will take the Fed a long time in order to get them back above 2% or higher. This would then lead to a further erosion in the purchasing power of the end consumer, thus lowering the Aggregate Demand in the US economy and lowering the Real GDP moving forward. On the other hand, the current demographic mix and the millions of people expected to leave the workforce this year, together with the continuous technological innovation present in the economy are both going to exercise their respective deflationary pressures moving forward. We hope that these developments could also help the Fed in the fight against inflation putting somewhat of a natural lid to how high inflation could rise in the long run. We believe that the economy would eventually self-correct and stabilize in the long run, but we will definitely have to go through a period of economic contraction in order for that to happen. Gold is widely considered as a safe-haven asset, which tends to outperform in times of uncertainty, volatility and lower GDP growth, thus making it an attractive asset for 2022 and beyond! Follow & Copy us @DowExperts on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance!
AMEX:GLDLong
by DowExperts
The Next Leg DownWelp, I'm calling it. I believe the next leg of this market sell off is coming. I'm sure all of you saw the Asset Bubble Chart.. I just can't believe we will be a part of something like this. I believe the short term bear market rally has about come to its end and we are heading towards another sell off. There is absolutely no news that can prop up markets at this point. The numbers are starting to come in globally, and PMI, GDP world wide is utterly collapsed. Oil while it had a short move upward is still at prices that producers can not maintain. You will see an influx of bankruptcies of oil producers and shale companies. In fact, it already started. World wide, it's no better. Keep in mind that, during America's boom since 2016, most of Europe was in recession. Now imagine how bad the EuroZone is as they entered this crisis already in recession. So, what's my opinion? I believe the EuroZone will collapse first. There is new infighting between the EU and Germany on the ECB's Bond Buying Program. This is potentially catastrophic as the EBC has no stopped their bond buying program since 2010 and they already have their interest rates at -0.45%! Europe has nothing left in their arsenal besides massive printing and stimulus, which will be short lived. After Europe collapses, Japan will be the next country to be hit. Japan has been had some of the worst economics and demographics of any country. They have been printing like never before and their entire country is heading into a depression. Couple this with weaker sales of electronics and vehicles, Japan is going to hit a wall here soon. The Bank of Japan can not save what was done. Lastly, the United States will have its day of reckoning. After decades of unbalanced budgets, printing infinitely, political uncertainty and a general instablity, the US will have a recession that never was before. The Great Recession of 2008 shattered the floor.. and since them they put glue in all the cracks, it held but they added more weight than ever. Every kind of debt is at record levels. The US Federal Tax Revenue is dropping $100,000 even 9 seconds and the US Debt is growing $100,000 every 4 seconds. The last time this Tax Revenue fell was 2008, during the recession. It's over folks. I don't mean to sound like an alarmist but you call a spade a spade when you see it. I believe this is the catalyst to the end of fiat world wide. Besides, historically, about even 30-50 years the world has been on a new global monetary standard since 1900s. The last monetary standard was in 1970s when Nixon killed the Bretton Woods system. So, what'll happen from here? The central banks will do what they always do in a crisis and the printers will be put on max output. Currency will be created like never before. I believe in the next 1-3 years, we will see hyper inflation in the US. Keep in mind, the One-Dollar Zimbabwe was worth $1.40ish USD in 2007. In 2008, we had the infamous 100,000,000,000,000 trillion Zimbabwe notes. Yes, it took just ONE year for hyper inflation to hit. What can I say? Hedge in silver and gold , a little in BTC because at this point who knows what will survive this crash. Dow will fall easily below 10,000.. and we will see the greatest number of unemployed people ever. This virus did a whole lot more damage underneath than we thought. There will NOT be a U-Shaped recovery. Fear has set in, people do not want to return to work and the once insane thought of basic income is now becoming reality. This isn't a chart on how to profit from this down turn, its just a cold reality check. I believe man has held it together for as long as they did but we see, people are no longer patient or caring. People are quicker to jump to conflict than peace. I believe society will also collapse and the once sane moral minded man will descend into violence, rioting, and looting. It sounds far fetched but, man will be man doesn't matter what year it is. static.seekingalpha.com
TVC:DJI
by WorldEconomics
10
COVID: WINNING OR LOSING THE WAR?The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany. Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more. But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why? Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture. Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important. It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How? If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise. If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero. Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December. Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation. Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services. Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron. Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
C
by Captain_Walker