Economy
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For May 13, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Euro has completed Inner Currency Dip 1.050. With oversold sentiment, it may make a run back towards the completed Inner Currency Dip mark and employ it as a new resistance level; however, the Next Inner Currency Dip 1.031 is inescapable.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For May 6, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
The downtrend as specified in Daily Chart Analysis For April 29, 2022
to Major Mean Sup 4070 is firm and concrete. Down movement continuation to Next Outer Index Dip, 3990 must obsolete the Major Key Sup to continue - we will observe and track this the following week's session. Interim bullish moves are possible within the current downtrend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For May 6, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The rebound to Mean Res 1.065 is completed as specified Daily Chart Analysis For April 29, 2022. The next down move is marked as Next Inner Currency Dip 1.031, and the future Outer Currency Dip 0.9765. Bullish movements are possible within the current downtrend - trade appropriately.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For May 6, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin is looking very bearish at this point. The current path is flagged to Inner Coin Dip $31,660 and Outer Coin Dip $30,800. A possible significant rebound is anticipated upon completion of Inner Coin Dip $31,660, while Key Sup $35,150 might offer transient upside movement.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For April 29, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Inner Currency Dip 1.050 is completed - a bullish move is possible within the current downtrend to Mean Res 1.065. The next down move is Inner Currency Dip 1.031, and the granddaddy of all flagged many moons ago is coming to realization marked at 0.9765.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For April 22, 2022After retesting Mean Res 1.089 first time followed through to Mean Res 1.093 was again retested. The stoppage occurred at a solid bottom marked Inner Currency Dip 1.077. A drop to Major Key Sup 1.069 and Next Inner Currency Dip 1.056 is inevitable - to some extent, bullish moves are possible within the current downtrend.
SPX: Macroeconomic 101It have been months since I have posted an update in TradingView, today I will be discussing 101 of macroeconomics which will help to understand the relationship between Monetary Policy, Cashflow and inflation without making it super complicated.
1- Cashflow:
Big money flow which interest go, as simple and as complicated as it seems. Instead of looking at currencies as purchasing items, we can look at them as exchanging items, for example when you try to buy an car, you are exchanging a car for x amount of USD, and when you are selling the car again, you are exchanging the car for X amount of money.
Big money usually will try to find the highest interest on the currencies they have while considering the risk of safety to get their cash back, when central bank decrease interest rates which mean keeping money in banks will get investors or cash holders less return on their money than before, that is why there will be sale of currencies and buying of commodities/stock/business/investments that is expected to provide a higher return than banks.
2- Monetary policy and Interest rates:
The purpose of interest rates changes are to control inflation rates, low interest rate promote more loans to be taken and less deposits with banks, low interest rate will make the market environment to be more creative in order to create income more than what the interest on loans are, this will help companies to grow and money to cycle in markets more than bonds and deposits. Hence, the less interest rate, the more likely spending increase which as a result prices will grow. This help central banks achieve their objectives or steady growth and maximising employments.
3- Inflation:
When the market get heated and purchasing power is strong, it is normal for the purpose of balancing supply and demand in the market for prices to increase, every sector will be impacted differently. When inflation increase to a level that effect normal average consumer, central banks need to encounter this inflation increase by trying to reduce market activities, this will be done by increasing interest rates, when interest rate increase, money will flow from risky investments to less risky once as they provide a higher interest, which as a result will reduce the activities across economies and will motivate less spendings, spendings will be exchanged with demand on currencies which will increase demand on USD (USD will increase), which in line will make bonds prices to drop (yields to increase). As we are also noticing that FED are trying to reduce QE in markets as to reduce risk of inflation.
When we factor in the current geopolitical matters, I will expect the SPX to continue moving sideways or downside, good opportunity for buying groceries at discounted prices for long term portfolio, I will be a gradual buyer as there is an element of uncertainty related to the countries decisions in regard to economics, globalisation and geopolitics.
Buying great companies at fair price is BETTER than buying cheap companies at great price.
Until next time,
AgentH
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For April 15, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The bitcoin price experienced its most significant daily drop since February earlier this week and dipped below $40,000 on Monday, posting a low of $39,218; however, failing to fulfill our Inner Coin Dip 39,000 - the completion is anticipated. Bullish activities are possible within this movement.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For April 15, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After retesting our Mean Res 1.093 and Inner Currency Dip, 1.082 since Monday price action did close lower to complete extended Current Completed Inner Currency Dip 1.077 suggesting a drop to Major Key Sup 1.069, and Next Inner Currency Dip 1.056 - to some extent bullish moves are possible within the current downtrend.
Recession warning on S&P500?The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 . On Thu Mar 31st , the yield curve showed a possible warning signal that a recession could be happen at anytime, but the curve needs to stay inverted for a substantial amount of time before it gives a valid signal. People get excited about the yield curve because, historically it has been a good predictor of the onset of recession.
Against a backdrop of searing inflation, Russia’s War in Ukraine and a commodity shock, the relentless flattening of the yield curve and its predictive qualities has market watchers on edge.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the odds of a U.S. recession as high as 35% in the next year, while Grant Thornton’s Diane Swonk sees the twin blow of Fed tightening and higher oil prices potentially tipping the economy into a recession. The yield curve may serve Economists more than Investors, the key factor in the yield curve inversion is that, while it can often forecast darker days ahead for the economy, it is NOT a sell signal for those who invest in stocks
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For April 8, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After embarking on a Key Res at $47,900 retest this month, Bitcoin has punctured coin sentiment by sliding into a direction to Mean Sup $41,100. After follow-thru to Inner Coin Dip, $39,000 is a high probability. Interim rebound to Mean Res $43,540 is also in play.