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Broader Money Relevance / Macro Events / FracturingA shortened Holiday Week's Macro Data Sets will provide further information as to the "Inflation" Trade. The Federal Reserve most closely follows PCE Data. Wednesday will provide Direction _______________________________________________________ Macro Data Events Week of November 22, 2021 Monday: 10:00 Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) * 3/6 Bill & 2/5 Note Auctions. Tuesday: 08:55 Redbook (MoM) / (YoY) 09:45 Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 09:45 Services PMI (Nov) 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index (Nov) Wednesday: 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 07:00 MBA Purchase Index 07:00 Mortgage Market Index 07:00 Mortgage Refinance Index 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 08:30 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 Core PCE Prices (Q3) 08:30 Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 08:30 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 08:30 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 08:30 GDP Sales (Q3) 08:30 Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 Goods Trade Balance (Oct) 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 08:30 PCE Prices (Q3) 08:30 Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 08:30 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct) 08:30 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 09:30 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 10:00 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 10:00 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov) 10:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) 10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 10:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations (Nov) 10:00 New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 ***** PCE Price index (YoY) (Oct) ***** 10:00 ***** PCE price index (MoM) (Oct) ***** 10:00 Personal Income (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Oct) _______________________________________________________ Violent Price Action Potential
FRED:M1V
by HK_L61
2
USD TRY long term view up to 10.60 - 12.00Currency markets were becalmed in early Asian trade on Monday. The only action was on the Emerging Markets with the Turkish Lira hitting an all-time low. Against the US Dollar, the TRY (Turkish Lira) hit a record low of 9.85 so far in early Asia. * Turkey 2021 inflation target raised to 18.4% from 14.1% * Miners lead losses in China, Russia as commodity prices fall * U.S. telecoms regulator revokes China Telecom’s authorisation Emerging market stocks slipped for a third session on Thursday as sliding commodity prices and fresh fears about U.S.-China ties weighed, while Turkey’s lira fell on a worrying divergence between the direction of inflation and monetary policy. With sliding base metal and basic material prices, miners led losses in most bourses. Heavyweight China stocks lost between 0.4% and 1.2%, while a 4% slump in Russian aluminium giant Rusal took Moscow’s MOEX index 0.9% lower, more than 2% away from record highs. Meanwhile, news of the U.S. telecoms regulator revoking China Telecom’s authorisation to operate late on Wednesday sparked fears about the fragile relation between the world’s two largest economies. A tit-for-tat tariff war between China and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration had roiled global financial markets and contributed to slowing economic growth. In debt markets, the average yield on EM local debt moved back above 5.6%, the highest since March 2020. While most EM currencies made muted moves against a steady dollar, Turkey’s lira dipped 0.7% after a three-day relief rally. The central bank raised inflation targets for the next three years, with 2021 year-end inflation now seen at 18.4%, up from an earlier forecast of 14.1%. “The argument that high inflation is transitory may be true elsewhere, but not in Turkey, which has experienced high inflation for over a decade,” said Tatha Ghose, FX analyst at Commerzbank. “No matter what (the central bank) writes in its statements about limited room available for further rate cuts, President Tayyip Erdogan will not be happy until rates have been cut to single digit... As the unconventional monetary policy experiment unfolds, we can see USD-TRY overshooting by a wide margin.” The currency has been the worst performing among EM peers this year, thanks to uncertain and unconventional monetary policy amid surging inflation by a central bank fast losing autonomy, as well as depleting foreign exchange reserves and strained ties with the West. South Africa’s rand traded flat as state power utility Eskom increased scheduled power cuts on Wednesday after further breakdowns at its coal-fired power stations. A report suggested it will require $30 billion to end its coal reliance. Eyes were also on local elections scheduled on Monday. A weak result for the ruling ANC party in Johannesburg or in Tshwane, which comprises Pretoria, would be a heavy blow for President Cyril Ramaphosa and his reform course, and is therefore also likely to affect the rand, said Commerzbank. USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 9.632 at 2021-11-03 (today's range: 9.593 - 9.658). ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +62.89%. - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 9.55 - 10.00 - FAIR BUYING PRICE 7.80 - 8.90 - Our option for #USDTRY is HOLDING LONG TERM. Do your research before any trade or any investment, make your own decision, be patient and look long term wisely. Please comment, like and follow if this post helped you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable trading. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Long
by AliSamadiTR
2
THE GREAT CRASH IS COMING! This Fractal Pattern Tells Us Why!Hello friends! It's been a while. Many apologies for that. Life has been busy so I haven't been able to dedicate much time to T.A on TradingView. I have recently pulled out of Crypto, just waiting to see if Bitcoin decides to break-through or crash. Patience is key here - keep cash handy. You want to be sure of your investments (easier said than done in these very strange financial times). I have been researching the U.S Economy lately. How is it that in that there is no correlation between the workforce economy and the stock market? The U.S have recently averted default (when you're unable to make a repayment) by once again - lifting the debt ceiling to 28.9 trillion US dollars (yes, that is correct). This situation, better known as Cockroach Motel is a game that has never been played to this extent before. Keep avoiding a recession by printing your way out of it. Negative consequences? Yes. Many. Here is a dump of my notes and why the US isn't in as good as a position as you may believe: ✓ Uncontrollable Inflation due to the U.S's printed economy. ✓ Debt highly leveraged across all trading firms. ✓ Feds left with no further tools due to 0% interest rates. ✓ Commercial property vacancies increasing. ✓ Energy shortage crisis in Europe and China. ✓ Rising expenses, declining incomes. ✓ Gas and oil prices at an all time high in Europe. ✓ Commodity prices at highs not seen since 2011. ✓ Irresponsible government spending and federal policies. (Yes, the Biden Administrations 'Build Back Better' agenda is a little too pricey for their current situation) ✓ Evergrande and Fantasia Holdings on the brink of bankruptcy in China. ✓ 2008 GFC was the housing bubble crash. Every asset is currently in a bubble. We are in a debt crisis. ✓ 40% of the money in the US economy has been printed in the last 12 months - now more. Feds have printed their way out of the 2008 and 2020 COVID-19 recession and made the debt bubble larger. ✓ Effective Federal Funds Rate is down to 0.8% - cheap money. ✓ Post 2008 recovery is an ongoing untried experience. ✓ Market is currently parabolic, as seen in 1929 crash which results in 90% drop. ✓ Wealth gap is increasing due to printed money. Asset prices increase as yearly salary stagnates/decreases due to inflation. This makes the rich richer and the middle class and poor poorer. ✓ No correlation between the economy and the stock market. Money is staying in the investor market. ✓ Velocity of money is plummeting. People are not spending. The Chinese economy is growing while we are stuck with a massive debt. ✓ Saving going up and spending going down. Debt/GDB ratio is extremely high. ✓ Huge underemployment. ✓ Massive social unrest. Fed and treasury haven't invested in the working class. ✓ Superannuation is going to crash which will force many to convert their portfolio to liquid money. ✓ Armed the Taliban in Afghanistan. Weapons will be used against our only ally, Israel. ✓ Yallan and Powell work for the Fed and treasury which is essentially a communist organisation. ✓ Bullish Gold, Silver and BTC ✓ Michael Burry and Robert Kyosaki predicts crash of 90% and American financial system collapse ✓ The US Government is inviting inflation with its MMT tinged policies, brisk debt/GDP ratio, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus and reopening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket ✓ Consumer price index reaching all time highs. ✓ Biggest speculative market of all time - Robinhood generation ✓ Real-estate is currently experiencing hyperinflation. Back to the Chart: I found a fractal pattern from the 2008 GFC which is quite similar to this crash. I wouldn't compare it to the Dot Com bubble as that was far more speculative. This crash is similar due to greed - the belief that the economy will never crash and just continue in the upwards direction despite increasing debt at levels never seen before. Enjoy this fractal and better yet, enjoy the rest of your day. Love, peace, Seb.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SXTrading
9
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For October 23, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook: As to technical analysts, the next drive higher will meet the target of Key Res $65,990, and retest of completed Inner Coin Rally marked the same. The downside support is Mean Sup $57,400 and Key Sup $ 53,900. However, the present fractal model suggests that the next significant target of interest will be the Impending Outer Coin Rally marked at $81,330 - Flagged by Trade Selecter many moons ago.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For October 23, 2021 Technical Analysis and Outlook The next drive is the target of the Inner Index Rally $4,650. The possible retest of Mean Sup $4,485 is mid of conformation: Aggressive buying is preferred at this level unless otherwise specified. The present fractal model suggests that the next significant target of interest will be the Inner Index Rally marked at $4,650, along with the future Next #1 Outer Index Rally $4,775, and Next #2 Outer Index Rally $4,925.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin Will Drop... Alot. But it Will Rise Above the Ashes.Markets are going to keep going down in fear of Chinese real estate powerhouse Evergrande defaulting; Bitcoin will drop alongside it in the short term. My chart shows we may still rebound after we hit the 38k area. With that being said, if the Chinese housing bubble crashes, which represents 28% of China's entire economy, we will enter a global correction. Combine that with current inflation rates (6% on the year), and if this spending bill passes congress, we will enter a long term bearish outlook; which will shred BTC down to the 20K's in the short term as people liquidate assets in fear of them dropping further. That will be the ultimate buy opportunity, as BTC will serve as an inflation hedge long term, and only augments Bitcoin's use case - despite China working overtime to thwart the coin at every new opportunity it seems. The only chance Evergrande has, is if the Chinese government bails it out. But that will only alleviate things for a short time, a band aid. If that happens, and the markets rebound, im looking to liquidate my stock portfolio and hold cash. The whole world is looking at China right now...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Tokademics