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WTICOUSD - Oil Price Analysis and 2022 ForecastOil coming into a key area at the bottom of an 18-month structure. Typically I would wait for this to fully correct (below the 18-month structure) and then make a decision on how to trade it. But I think the most glaring thing about oil, is the fact that the all time high was set in July 2008. Lots more money out there these days; lot more drivers too. Economy is showing signs of inflation everywhere. I think it is a mistake to think this thing cannot ring the ATHs as early as Summer 2020. For now we watch and wait to see how it behaves in what has been a somewhat persistent range. From a trading / exposure perspective - I have been long in oil since September of this year. We will continue to track oil closely. God Bless
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by ChiefMacro
1
NDX - Where Are We?The Nasdaq hovering over a 11-12 year structure (orange channel dating back to '09), in what to me looks like a newly formed post-covid-MMT range. In a world with excessive deficits & low interest rates, it's kind of difficult to see this thing returning to that 11-year range; suffice it to say, as long as people are working (and as more people participate in work - say globally), we will continue to see money flow into the retirement / savings bubble. As far as an overall read, I think we will test the all-time-highs and potentially encounter some kind of sideways correction before pressing higher (i'll continue to cover that and elaborate that as it develops). I also would not be surprised if this thing breaks out of the blue structure; however - that would actually worry me and I would then start looking for the short. On a related note, I am on the record as stating, I think crypto currency will fail to keep up with stocks from an overall performance perspective. Well, actually I think cryptos will crash in 2022 as more emerge and tax policy continues to evolve in a post-covid deficit MMT world. God bless. Happy hunting. Chief
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by ChiefMacro
USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session. The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday. Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being. - USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday. - The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline. The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%. The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March. The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level. While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish. - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION. - Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !! It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
5
S&P Big Correction It seems like the market is ripe for a significant sell off. While mainstream news like CNBC and Bloomberg tell us that everything is rosy, the hard data spells otherwise. Just remember, these were the same people who laughed at economists like Peter Schiff in 2007 when they said a market collapse was coming. Truth of the matter is when anyone looks at the hard data, we see hurt coming soon. The biggest tale tale is as Goldman put it "51% Of All Market Gains Since April Are From Just 5 Stocks" Add to that inflation basically going out of control, retail sales dwindling, and creeping joblessness claims. Historically, higher interest rates was always negative for stocks. With the threat of tapering we will soon see the markets react. It's VIX season. Expect crypto to fall 30-50% once things start rolling.
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
USD/TRY Bulls keep eyes on 14.00 - 15.80 | But when ? USD/TRY yesterday remains range-bound near $12.40 heading into Monday’s European session. The Turkish lira (TRY) pair snapped a two-day downtrend the previous day while staying past a weekly ascending support line. Given the MACD line teasing bullish cross, as the quote remains above the short-term rising support line, USD/TRY buyers are likely to aim for the one-week-old horizontal resistance near $12.70. Following that, the $13.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up to the recently flashed record top of $13.49. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line near $12.30 will aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of the November 18-23 rally, around $12.00. During the USD/TRY weakness below the $12.00 threshold, the previous resistance line from November 23 and 61.8% Fibo., respectively around $11.80 and $11.60, will challenge the bears before October’s peak of $9.85. USD/TRY today advances for the third session in a row at the beginning of the week and trades at shouting distance from last week’s all-time highs past 13.0000 the figure ((November 24). The lira depreciates further on Monday in response to earlier comments by President Erdogan, who once again reiterated its firm opposition to interest rate hikes and sustained his (particular) view that interest rates generate inflation. Erdogan suggested that inflation could grind lower before the election in 2023 and added that the recent high volatility in the exchange rate is decoupled from economic fundamentals. Further selling pressure in the lira came after Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index eased to 99.30 in November (from 101.40). Additional data saw the trade deficit shrinking to $1.44B in October. key levels: So far, the pair is gaining 4.19% at 12.7578 and a drop below 11.5451 (low November 24) would expose 10.7007 (20-day SMA) and then 9.6361 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.1105 (all-time high Nov.24) followed by 14.0000 (round level). -USD/TRY starts the week on a positive footing. -Turkey’s Economic Confidence dropped to 99.30. -President Erdogan defended once again the low-rate policy. USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 13.0648 at 2021-11-30 (today's range: 12.0455 - 13.0658). ... With a 2-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +23.60%. Buy & Hold | +ROI Investment Suggestion: LONG-TERM Holding Duration : Min 2 yeasrs Probability: 74% Target: 14.0000-15.8000 INVT Fundamental Report: POSITIVE INVT Technical Report: POSITIVE INVT News Report: POSITIVE - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 13.0000 - 13.0700 - FAIR BUYING PRICE 12.0000 - 12.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is LONG TERM HOLDING. It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Long
by AliSamadiTR
11
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For December 4, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook: BANG! The bitcoin price has plummeted by around $15,000 over the 24 hours. As of 08:16 GMT today, it was trading at approximately $47,580, down 16.14%, having plummeted by 31.6% from this year's all-time high of $69,000, which it attained on November 10 this year. We are looking at this significant bitcoin market pullback as a "breather" following reaching this low-level price. Notwithstanding, it is possible to see an escalating rally pending Outer Coin Dip 42,500 confirmation (Trade Selecter System BARC) and Key Sup $40,700, which is the potential leading platform (or sooner) for the considerable rebound.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Broader Money Relevance / Macro Events / FracturingA shortened Holiday Week's Macro Data Sets will provide further information as to the "Inflation" Trade. The Federal Reserve most closely follows PCE Data. Wednesday will provide Direction _______________________________________________________ Macro Data Events Week of November 22, 2021 Monday: 10:00 Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) * 3/6 Bill & 2/5 Note Auctions. Tuesday: 08:55 Redbook (MoM) / (YoY) 09:45 Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 09:45 Services PMI (Nov) 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index (Nov) Wednesday: 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 07:00 MBA Purchase Index 07:00 Mortgage Market Index 07:00 Mortgage Refinance Index 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 08:30 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 Core PCE Prices (Q3) 08:30 Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 08:30 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 08:30 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 08:30 GDP Sales (Q3) 08:30 Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Oct) 08:30 Goods Trade Balance (Oct) 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 08:30 PCE Prices (Q3) 08:30 Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 08:30 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct) 08:30 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 09:30 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 10:00 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 10:00 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov) 10:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) 10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 10:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations (Nov) 10:00 New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 ***** PCE Price index (YoY) (Oct) ***** 10:00 ***** PCE price index (MoM) (Oct) ***** 10:00 Personal Income (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) 10:00 Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Oct) _______________________________________________________ Violent Price Action Potential
FRED:M1V
by HK_L61
2