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Russell 2000 at a key point. Where is the market going next?The Russell 2000 (RUT) is at the lower support area of a bound trading range since February. Two key indicators already broke down this week. 1) The index dipped below its 200d moving average today. 2) The index is made up of small-caps, and the ratio of performance between small and large caps broke down this past week as well. It's either time for small-caps to head back up, or this could be the start of a lower move. Bullish: The US dollar strengthening for small caps is bullish. The 10y Treasury Yield remains low, keeping borrowing rates low for small, but growing companies. Employment data continues to strengthen, showing companies of all sizes, but especially small-caps across recovery sectors are hiring back employees to meet demand. Bearish: The Fed is talking about a possible start to tapering this year. There are indications that the economic recovery is slowing. Retail Sales were lower than expected. Manufacturing Indexes showed a slow down this week. Small-caps are the most sensitive to changes in direction for the economy.
TVC:RUT
by drewby4321
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For August 9, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook It seems there is no stopping Bitcoin after the cryptocurrency surged past our psychological Mean Res $46,580 mark, which held the coin captive for four sessions from passing this barrier. Next is our target Inner Coin Rally of $50,130, coinciding with a significant $50,000 Maginot Line . Will the price of Bitcoin increase to $50,000 this weekend? See the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For August 9, 2021" page at the usual site for the rest of the market story.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingSig
The Crisis every investor is waiting for. What you gonna do?There are several factors in the market that raise concerns. Each of which could have a huge negative impact on the economy and the stock market. Lets take a look at it to clear our vision. At least that is what I am doing. What factors could that be. Inflation Wage Inflation Money Supply Money circulation Housing bubble China Regulations China Currency Manipulation China Delta Variance of Covid/ The Warren Buffet indicator In this episode I only will throw my thoughts in for a few things The other items will be explained at a later time. I have a lot of other things to do. Trading is 90% research and only of 10% mouse clicking. Inflation . CPI, the consumer price index, and the PPI, the producer price index. Certain stocks do better than other in an inflationary environment. If inflation hits too high consumer spending decreases and hence the demand shrinks and hence the economy starts to stagnate. We can see that the inflation rate is slowing (red), and the y/y rate (blue) is flattening. But we will see next month. This is something to watch out for. Feds might start tapering earlier than next year. Image missing The Producer Price Inde x is at high a level and sitting there. This will only decrease when transportation, sea ports, can keep up with demand and if raw material and commodity costs will decrease. But this can take a while and I expect the PPI staying at this level for a while and hence costs will be past on to the consumer. Hence the Consumer Price Index will follow. Image missing Wage Inflation . We should also take a quick look at the Wages and what they say.We can see that wages increased dramatically since May 2021 There is a shortage of labor. Labor is a commodity as everything else and the price follows supply and demand. But do not kid yourself. A company has to make profit and the labor is part of Cost of Goods sold, COGS. The company MUST increase prices to balance the wages increases. Thus, you wont make anymore money when you have to pay more at the till for what you buy!!! Wages increases mostly never benefit anyone, not the worker and not the company. The company become less competitive and the Worker pays more afterwards. The ONLY method to increase wages is by cutting taxes because taxes are NOT part of COGS and has no negative impact on companies. Just the opposite. With more money in the pocket the consumer starts more spending and that benefits the companies and they will produce more and hire more people. You see? Think about it. Your wage increase is not worth a dime with inflation. And wages increases drive inflation up! Thats why we advocate for smaller government, less regulations and less government spending. Image missing Money Supply , M1, is the amount of Cash circulating the system. It includes the "Free Money" printed by the FEDs given out to people due to Covid. "Stimulus check". The day-to-day money like cash, coins and checking deposits. We can see that since Covid the money made a huge jump and supply still is increasing. There is an enormous amount of cash in the system but does it circulate? Also keep in mind that when people spend money and do not produce the demand increases but the supply decreases. Add to it the sea ports, transportation bottlenecks and the open jobs, and you know why inflation is increasing dramatically. Image missing M1V is the velocity of Money . This is the speed of money in the circulation of the system. The day-to-day money like cash and coins. How many times a Dollar changes hand in a certain time period. A higher circulation rate or money flow indicates a greater economic activity, money is changing hands quicker. A slower rate of velocity indicates a sluggish or declining economy. Interesting to observe is that with Covid the money circulation fell out of the sky. Yes everybody was laid off. But when you take a closer look the change q/q is still negative, which means the circulation of money in the economy is still slowing down even though at a slower rate! This means that with an increase in money supply at hand of people, we will see a decline in spending!! Not good for the economy. Give me the Retail Numbers. Image missing M2 Money Stock includes M1 plus savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds. This is one way the FEDs trying to keep the cocaine going. They buy MBA (Mortgage Backed Securities) and Bonds from banks in order to create more demand in order to keep bond prices up and the yields down. The 20 year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT from Barclays, i.e. With this the FEDs keep the money in the stock market. The bond prices are going up when the FEDs keep on buying. But with buying Bonds the yield (interests) are going down since you pay more for the fixed interest rate, which means the percentage of return per bond is shrinking because the yield stays the same but the price for the asset rises. It is an inverted relationship to the TBT. Image missing In the M2SL supply we can see that with Covid there was an money injection. After the Covid the money injection accelerated and is increasing fast, more inflation. And we can assume that lot of this money is with the bank. You can walk into any bank and get a personal loan, because money is a liability for the bank, loans generating profits. We can further assume with all the said before that even the banks do not know in what tangible projects to invest. Where is the infrastructure bill going? There is nothing so far. It is all warm air from the Biden administration. Further reading at investopedia dot com Conclusion Inflation is on the rise and will stay. Wages wont go back to before pandemic levels. Costumers also will get use to paying more for some items, like gasoline, energy and transportation, vacation. The Producer inflation for raw material and transportation is also going up and will stay high for a long time. Inflation cannot grow for ever and at such pace. The Feds have to start tapering soon. Then they will firstly reduc3e buying Bonds and MBA, which will drive the yield up. This also will cool the housing bubble a little since the banks are now required to carry the risks they could push to the FEDs by selling them MBAs. Mortgages will be harder to acquire. When the Feds starting to taper, they will reduce the flow of money, which is not yet increasing anyway, as we can see, they will battle inflation. What is your wage increase of 5.5% this year worth when the inflation hits 6%? Nada. You lose money. At the point of tapering the institutions will start moving money out of the stock market due to risks! And they will put it into bond and or Gold. If there is a crises developing that will include China and the Euro Zone they will also start buying US bonds the USD will rise. This conclusion is preliminary. The housing bubble and other indicator will follow. Please be advised, I am not a financial adviser. I am not recommending any trades. I am just a crazy guy with a wild brain. If you want to see the picture to the story, you have to go to hedgingstocks.blogspot dot com
SP:SPXShort
by Option_Crusader
4
Special edition news n°33: RevoltsThere is a lot here so this special ed only has 3 parts and I've tried to mostly list bullet points. The west as it is declining, and just dropped below 50% of world GDP, is going through a historical turning point. There is no boiling frog anymore, hopefully the flame grows even bigger and it's finally all over soon. The faster the better, I always hated long boring prolonged "uncertain" bear markets. I am just not patient. Just get it over with already. > Major countries start enforcing strict covid measures, that some have called tyrannical *********************** NYC mayor said about vaccines "we've been nice, the voluntary phase is over" Also now centers throw $100 at who enters and gets a shot France introduced the most strict covid pass in the world 2 days before the national celebration, where people sing "let's kill the tyrants" (it is the national anthem). At the same time China outlawed forced vaccinations and sanitary passes, that they considered too anti-freedom. China. Other countries in the west, such as Italy, want to follow France example. China is considered a terrifying dictatorship because they do not allow crowds to go out naked in the street with children and do golden showers while "normies" tell them how stunning and brave they are. Mass hysteria: some countries (UK...) have been buying millions of body bags, enough for over 1/3 of the population. They're planning the zombie apocalypse? The CDC tells the vaccinated to wear masks indoors and adds "The delta variant is showing everyday its willingness to outsmart us ". You can say that again. They also found that people that had covid had lower intelligence? How does that work? France president, while giggling (reminds me of Elon Musk "it's really not that complicated tihi"), anounced he would not take the vaccine because he already got covid (ages ago, more than 6 months). Ah, France will have zero tolerance covid passes (you lose your job without it no warning no second chance) but there are some exceptions. First the government will not require those passes. No vaccine, or pass, or pension reform for them. The other ones not impacted by vaccines, covid passes, or pension reforms are the police, gendarmery, armée de terre, armée de l'air, marine. Basically anyone with a category A weapon or that protects the government (garde républicaine, Brav M) is above these laws. Courageous. In other words you either need a covid pass or an assault rifle. If you do not have your pass but are holding a rifle, you can pass. In burgerland, Biden required 5 million federal workers to get a covid pass. Once again, they cannot force vaccinate people as it is against at least 10 international laws. But how fortunate, the injections temporary authorizations I heard were about to become permanent! Wow, science is amazing, this will be by far the fastest this ever happened right? Very self-aware billionaire Larry Fink also threw oil on the fire and just after we learned US min wage couldn't afford rent anywhere in the country - while hedge funds are buying houses - he said "you'll have to work longer and take more risk". The take risk part obviously does not apply to 99% of the population that are now wageslaves. Lots of unpopular laws are being passed. The US just gave feminists some equality, and now women can get drafted too if the government judges it useful. Israel recently appointed far right PM has decided it was time to force vaccinate the population. > There are big protests/uprisings and business killing boycotts all around the globe *********************** In many countries millions of people in the middle of summer have gone out to protest the restrictive measures. The media said they were 110,000 in France, government said there were only 160,000. This is ridiculous as hundreds of towns had protests, all the major ones, and even relatively small sized cities visibly had thousands of people. In a parisian square alone there was visibly close to 100,000 people. When confronted the government said "they were in the square, they did not move around, hence it was not a protest and we did not count them". This actually makes me laugh. As I explained countless times, the useful idiots have no soul. Many "celebrities" such as gay "model" Samuela Górska have given their support to antisemitic and anti-LGBT groups that are getting popular in Poland (as a result of the west pushing for wokeness). See? In the west they support jews and lgbts and virtue signal, in the east they do the exact opposite - even gays - and virtue signal about it. Mindless useful idiot sheeps looking for browing points. In 3 towns in the south of France were found guillotines with death threats and lists of names of officials that support the sanitary pass. The french don't mess around. They say it's a tiny minority but my town was empty during the big protests day, they all went to Paris. And the tiny minority of people that do not bother voting is 70%. They want to make voting mandatory now :D The country has not even seen a referendum for 16 years, ever since there was a EU one the result of which the government did not like (or respect). The public does not care if who gets elected is Macron, or Macron 2, or hell even Macron 3 for that matter! The owner of 400 signs (the big signs near roads) displayed one showing french president as Adolf Hitler and the sign reads "Obey and get vaccinated". US senator Wendy Rogers saying to ignore White House mandates Calls to disobey are being made all over the place People have nothing to do because doors are closed and even if they could open them with a pass they won't, many people are boycotting the pass, and many just don't have one even when vaccinated. There is one activity left: go out and break government buildings. I'll add to this that California and a few other states have banned gaming PCS (to "save the planet"). So hardcore gamers are joining then? There is a rumor onlyfans will remove porn content (?????????), genius move. Can simps protest? > Governments are afraid (panicking even) and are using control measures and repression to fight back *********************** Calling everything a conspiracy theory is not working anymore. Back in the old days they called everything "that's just speculation", now this sentence has morphed into "bla bla conspiracy theory" which sounds a whole lot dumber. I don't have spies in Italy, Germany the UK, but in France I can tell you that the current protests have the government very worried (they were already afraid before that but it is escalating) and the secret services sent an alarming report to the executive about the popular uprising. In France specifically, the powers that be did a great job at shutting down the yellow vest revolution with the help of the virus. But it is back. Last year there was a very scary news in Australia that "normies" ignored (and also they laughed at "conspiracy theorists"), that news was the Australian government unironically signed to allow the chinese military to "maintain order" in the country o.0. I am the last bear alive and while everyone is getting agitated and it would not even cross their mind covid is behind us, I think covid is over (as a deadly disease). This could be part of why they accelerate the anti-freedom stuff (they know covid might be over). France president is suing the owner of 400 signs that displayed him as Hitler and supports the yellow vest movement. A president suing like this is not something we are used to. The owner answered that is was fine to make fun of the backside of the prophet but it was blasphemy to satire about the president. France lower house refused to implement an amendment to the sanitary pass laws that would prevent blocking voting access to unvaccinated people because "it is obvious we won't do that". ... The US government is judging the "january 6 capitol coup", they got police officers crying on stage, they'd make the USSR blush, and I have even seen journalists and college professor (dumbest people alive) say that "they did not punish Hitler in 1923 so bla bla bla that's why etc". This is of course pathetic as he is famous for literally writting Mein kampf and getting big while in jail. I have a screenshot of the NYT saying Hitler got tamed in prison nice one. Elected officials that are standing up to the strict measures, get kicked out of their group or party, and sometimes thrown lawyers at too The Australian government started waging war on the population, they said they wanted to send the regular army on the ground to crush the revolt, and in the meantime their police was stalking the end of the protest crowd, looking for weak and isolated protestors and violently attacking them. The ones that get caught will suffer harsh penalties to make an example. This works great if your goal is to anger the population. France has been puncturing eyes and ripping hands off and making "zero tolerance very harsh punishment" speeches and now the police every day take their helmets off and walk with the protestors. Australia will go beyond anything done yet and require ID, passport or driver's license tied to your social media account. You need "100 points of identification". Wow didn't see that coming! "Conspiracy theory". Other western government obviously also want to use drones and other "what is human rights" measures as they are aware their time is running out. Paypal announced they would block funds to "extremists groups" as central banks continue to move towards full control, centralized digital currencies, and a cashless society. Paypal is teaming up with the ADL that a lot of people know of. And they did not just say "white supremacists" they literally said "and anti-government organisations". Do moronic zombies still call it a conspiracy theory if they LITERALLY openly say it word for word? Ye they're so stupid they probably do lol. Vaccination centers in France were burned and vandalized and ministers made their usual show "we need the harshest possible sentences". Lmao when a few retired generals wrote a letter to the french government they went into full panic mode "omg algiers putsch date omg I want them all thrown in jail the harshest possible examplary sentence". A few of them probably poo'ed their pants. In the US pardonned Michael Flynn that just got an AR said he'd love to find someone in the white house. Cares given = ??? I thought he was a democrat? No longer? Or a rebellious one maybe. Officials in the west are breaking ranks. A french general on tv said without flinching, like it's the most normal thing in the world, that the media was controlled by a certain community. Tunisia government has fallen apart but they are not part of the G7 so let's skip that; it might have some influence; it might spread to MENA so let's skip but let's keep an eye open. More focussed on the US and France, Italy and Australia a bit too. That's all folks. Maybe the EU falls apart. Bringing the Euro down with it. Maybe the USD falls too, soon. What should happen to the USD value if 1/3 of the country leaves the union and declare their own currency? I have news about USD reserves being liquidated but this, like other things, will have to wait for another post there is too much in that one already.
by MrRenev
3
The boomers didn't have enough kids trendThe london area and some countries are ordering millions of body bags. They are super bearish. At the bottom. As usual. Covid is over. There were 2 deadly waves and there won't be a third. I hope I'm not offending anyone too much. I know that to big brains going against the fear narrative - which changes everyday - makes you a conspiracy theorist that believes jewish lizards control the world. I believe reptilians control the world and this is my right. Look at this chart: Do you not think that governments are ran by reptilian brains because I think they are. They made illegal buying masks and told us they were useless. Then they forced us to wear masks and used strict police repression to enforce this rule. They locked healthy people at home, even in middle ages they didn't do that. Scientists proved it was useless AND showed that for the first time ever, entire families (locked together) died! They are always wrong about everything. They are reptilian peasants. Covid passes, just like retirement reforms, are rules made by boomers for boomers. And these rules apply to everyone except the police and military. Democracy. It's like literally everyone is ultra bullish on covid but they are all wrong. This is the top. They are going to panic with the violent 2023 flu pandemic but it's just the start of wave 1 in the new uptrend. And 2022 will be "back to normal hurrah". After 1 century of exceptional progress, S&P growth, life expectancy, the trend will reverse. Good times create weak men etc. These weak zombies will panic it's going to be funny. When a very violent bubonic ebola plague hits it's possible that the zombies get the zeal of the convert: They believed in covid fear, they will change their mind once it's over and they slowly learn restrictions were for nothing. Redpilled. And so, when the plague hits they will brush it off. I'll be in my bunker in the middle of nowhere watching natural selection take its course. Deaths will actually go up for several reasons: - Massive obesity, in particular in the young (that are getting older and fatter) - Massive old population with very little replacement And also: - Weak chinned low T drug addicts - Hypocondriacs with weakened immune systems - Being stuck at home and other small reasons Medical institutions have done a lot of campaigning to get people to avoid using antibiotics all the time. Some fear penicillin resistant bacterias pandemics and mutants. This will not happen, not on a large scale. Bacterias have been at war for BILLIONS of years. Using penicillin or other antibiotics for millions of years. Zambia is a country with a population of 15,000,000. The west stole almost all their doctors. They had 1600 and that number dropped to 400. This obviously really screws the country beyond belief but a few thousand doctors for the west is not enough. They have a few hundred per 100,000 and as the population age they will need more, perhaps as much as 500/100,000. But their doctors are retiring, so the number goes down. In France the number now is 330, stagnating, but the number of patients is going up. And that 330 number will decline. France alone might need 100 doctors by 100,000. So in total 67,000 doctors (the population is 67M). That is more than 50 times the number of doctors that were stolen from Zambia. And that's France alone. Plus the "brain drain" has been going on for decades so Africa has little left to leech. Maybe they are now letting in refugees because they hope some of them will turn into doctors? For context at least 70% of refugees are women and children. The revolution already started, but during the 2023 flu pandemic where thousands of old people are waiting in makeshift beds in tents because hospitals are full, and the government runs out of options (they might lock people at home again, out of despair again), a hard paradigm change will be necessary. There are a lot of variable. For example if the anti covid injections have side effects, pharma companies, that already have scandals way too often, will lose the public trust. And the biotech period will not happen, or be delayed, or be very secondary. We are changing of paradigm & period (50-75 years), but also of era (200-300). The period in France is 1968-2021 so 53 years. Or you could say since the 1946 NWO, 75 years. It is not an exact science. The past 50-75 years was the period of neo-liberal pleasure seaking, tech religion, etc. It's ending. That was for the period (50-75). The era (200-300) is industrial revolution/wageslavery/capitalism/socialism. We were born just in time to witness some of the greatest change in history. Worth it. All of Africa does not have enough doctors and nurses to take care of the hundred of millions of obese and old patients. Not even close. The only half valid hope is technology but it won't magically save people. Deaths will go up, like it or not. And governments can crush revolts, but they can't crush the underlying fundamentals. If Louis XVI had put an end to the tax revolt of 1789 (Like Macron put an end to the yellow vest tax revolt), monarchy would still have ended. The trend, and what to expect is clear. I believe not 1 in a thousand knows this. It is mathematically impossible the welfare state continues, government guarenteed pensions will vanish. And it is mathematically impossible that our generation (Z to X) lives better than boomers. For the first time the kids will not be better off than their parents. Not only that but even much worse off. I will add another call, gold, easy one: I hate explaining the obvious but I have the intention to throw this at the face of dum dums. Here I am so clear even a zombie should be able to understand: Months ago me said covid-19 wave was over, and me said if other wave it would be other variant. Which was the case. That call aged well. Now me say covid deaths any variant is over. I no care media say "ooga booga many case". Me say death spike covid any variant over. No more big spike. No third deadly wave. Understand? Death. Not case. Regardless vaccines. All country same.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
1
Personal Savings Rate - Consumer Spending to DeclineAs the Pandemic progressed, Consumers began to spending on Durable Goods, Home Improvement, Electronics and a host of additional Products to improve their nesting conditions. This dynamic applied to Americans who remained employed through "Stay at Home" Measures. Lower Income Consumers paid down Debt and began Investing via WeBull, CoinBase and Robin Hood. Online gambling began to increase markedly. Rents were abated through moratoriums on Real Estate. Stimulus measures provided Income substitution effects, why work when you are assure $600 per week for one year. Demand was brought forward for a number of Sectors. It is now declining. Consumers purchased new Computers, Phones, Tablets and peripherals. White goods and Construction Materials were extremely strong for 16 months. Demand has been sated, the Economy has been contracting for a number of months. On sector Watch: XLE XLU XLK XLB XLP XLY XLI XLC XLV XLF XLRE Breadth should be closely monitored in each of these Sectors as it is in decline once again.
FRED:PSAVERTShort
by HK_L61
2
Reacting to Biden Executive OrderHere is an important one from yesterday: Biden made a speech praising capitalism and signed an executive order to "promote competition and fight monopolies" (the quotes are because I'm quoting not because I'm being sarcastic lol). It came 2 hours before the market close if I'm correct. Missed it. Doesn't seem like it collapsed prices. The order is a guideline, an agenda. Up to lawmakers I guess, maybe ministers too (whatever they are called in the USA). Here is the official propaganda: www.whitehouse.gov The order should be published here soon: www.federalregister.gov Profits have gone up more than wages so where did the difference go? They forgot to mention government spending ballooned, obvious where it went. I don't know what is in the EO, what laws will be signed, what consequences it will have. It's a big thing by itself and then it's even more work to try to guess what comes out. Monopolies (very often government enforced) are a huge issue, I got lots and lots to say about it, as well as corporate conspiracies (did you know US towns had a great tramway system before the automakers conspired to destroy them? They were found guilty and paid a ridiculous fine. I wanted to write about that too) For the past 2 decades wageslavery has grown! Less and less small businesses and more and more huge ones eating up everything. On top of that big tech has too much power and they piss off both sides of the US political spectrum, as well as foreign nations. My call was more hybrid (mix of centralized and decentralized) businesses such as mcdonalds & google-youtube which are giant companies BUT people there are self employed (the yt chanel owner and the MCD franchised owner). Here are an example of reforms that huge companies PUSH AND LOVE: - Higher minimum wage - A daily quality & health check that costs $1000 a day - Measures to protect the environment What do they have in common? They are expensive for the small fish, cheap for the big ones. What do they do as an end result? 2 things: 1- Very little to even negatively impact the workers lives and the environment 2- Economically eliminate the competition Min wages workers here and there think they earn more but clearly the big companies get a bigger share of the market and wealth is distributed more "not the way they'd like". It's like a generational downtrend with the fools celebrating each time there is a small sucker rally, a small "win for the simple working people", totally oblivious to the bigger picture. These guys reach multi billion proportions, perhaps the legit way with all the credit and respect that is due. But for some reason they want to use dirty tricks to supplant the competition. So they get 0 credit and respect from me. Terrible mindset. A bodybuilder had asked Arnold Schwarzenegger how to supplant the competition and he answered something along the lines of "don't talk to me disgusting subhuman I want the competition to be at the top of their game and beat them BECAUSE I AM EVEN BETTER". In this corporate world sociopathy and manipulative behavior gets rewarded and decent human beings get punished. Can these parasitic sociopaths even survive on their own or do they need a host to manipulate and leech on? I differ from commies on this subject as I am not envious and not against fair personal success and not against elitism, I actually want to eliminate cheaters for MORE competition and MORE elitism and MORE imperial greatness. When you compare a self made mastermind businessman like Cornelius Vanderbilt that fought and beat monopolies and corruption; to some 30 year old billionaires (or even 18) that originate from a famous family or made a website that got popular and never held a honest job in their lives, that keep giving their opinions on everything, get proven wrong, and never learn their lesson, have a spoiled kid behavior; well... there is something wrong here. The US is full of commies now that are angry which is a symptom showing such reforms are needed, I've been saying so for as long as I've been posting about the US economy. And you didn't need violent rebels to figure it out. Never pro-active. Anyway... Maybe we'll see the S&P 500 or Russell outpace massively the DJI? With the passive investing scam and its hordes of mindless "investors" the big companies have already blown out the smaller ones in price/earnings ratios which is something else that comes on top of big companies having a too large piece of the pie. Let's say lawmakers and the executive are well intentioned and real changes are made. Gorbachev also came up with much needed reforms. But too late. The Soviet Union collapsed. And Gorbachev got blamed. The solution got blamed for the fall. Me I am holding the US indice as long as it goes up. I will invest in west Europe, east Europe, the greater Maghreb, and throw in a little bit of middle east and west Africa (the rectangle). Warren Buffett said "diversification is a protection against ignorance", ye this is exactly why I do it rofl. Long term investing is not my job, I'm a short term FX speculator. I'd be happy with breaking even + getting a few dividends. It's mostly interesting because it is tax efficient honestly. I'd add the USA to my long term basket when I really start one (need money to invest first) if I like what I see, and right now I don't, BUT I am still long the bubble and watching it very closely, as a short term investment (been nearly a year though). Biden defending capitalism, as the US have done for decades. The whole world been defending capitalism or socialism/communism for over a century. The never ending debate. Meanwhile China couldn't be bothered and said "whatever yolo let's do both". I just saw a picture of a luxury ultra-capitalist Gucci store under huge communist propaganda façades with sickle and hammer symbols everywhere. Love it.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
1
Lookout! The Wealthy Are Shorting The Economy20 year yields appear to be breaking out of a long downtrend which has witnessed a boom in the stock market since this asset's crash back in March of last year. But now the winds seem to be shifting possibly again as now the TLT has started July with fireworks and yields appear to be flipping bullish. This would be very bad for stocks.. however please keep in mind that this is a lagging indicator. Sometimes it plays out in perfect sync, sometimes it takes months to come into effect. Which means, the remainder of the year should be safe for equities. 2022 however, if 20 year yields confirm bullish, would be fair game to see the real crash in the stock market that many have been waiting for. A play on bonds could be the potential bet/hedge in the distant future. If you enjoyed this post please leave a like :)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TradeVibez
How the west economy is reliant on modern atlantic slave tradeIf Hitler started an NGO to give money to poor Palestinians he'd have exterminated the jews with western donations. If you take a 10 year old kid the cost for the west to produce a wageslave will be higher, maybe 40k, but it's still money saved, and they can start the brainwashing younger. The west is losing their grip on Africa, things will change. Migrants will stop coming and even leave and this will happen before the end of the century: - Cheap healthcare personel will not exist anymore - Sexual exploitation of poor women by boomers will end - Nationalists will let it happen with a smile of relief - The economies will tank, the standard of living will be below east europe (already almost there) - Ethnic tensions will go up in the west like Yugoslavia - You will kneel and kiss our feet, and we will enslave you - I will point and laugh and say "told you so" I think part of it is the french want revenge for getting enslaved for centuries by pirates and sahelian tribes. Don't you worry, will all the harm you have done soon things will go back to normal "just comply and you will gain your freedom soon enough". Libya same story. The country societal pillars were destroyed by the west commies with their childish utopias. And the council of tribes said Gaddafi son was the only one they'd let represent them. Tripoli is in the hands of militias of slavers, well done democracy. Once the west falls, and it will snowball as migrants will stop coming and even leave, Africa will finally be able to get rid of this "democracy" (even the USA doesn't have a direct democracy, why doesn't west Europe try to bring their utopia there?), and go back to solid traditional societal pillars. The tribes will manage to agree and work together. The danger is to overdo it, to become too traditional. Under Ghadaffi Libya was very developed, the before after pictures are insane. The Emirate Arab United managed to united, I do not know this place well and I know they are 10 times more indian workers than arabs but at least they worked together and got very developed and rich. It's beyond belief how gullible and stupid and submissive westerners are, I do not wish to ever argue with them, they will be the slaves of the arabo-berber tribes because that's all they are good for. With the exception of Anglo-Saxons and Vikings as covid has proven. The stereotype was true who would have thought? "Oh noes so much war and misery in Africa" gee yes I wonder why, and it always happens after you help them damn how come? Must be 5000 coïncidences by now. Lmao the black arab-berber Toubou tribe of south Libya has 33% R1b dna markers, this is the gene from west Europe, how did it end up there? XD Slaves from the coast south of France is my guess. It's ok to mix with them because it is the same race. And they can select the ones they want to keep in their gene pool. 400 AD south of Roman Gaul: "These puny barbarians can't touch us we are advanced" 500 AD south of Roman Gaul: Frankish rulers overhear the gaul nobles they just shaved say it was "humiliating", for daring to say such a thing they are put to death :) When pirates captured Julius Caesar he told them "I will come back, I will find you, and then I will execute you" They laughed And then he came back :) Here is a printable version:
FRED:GDP
by MrRenev
1
BULLISH reversal in play for the US Dollar! Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve had to apply loose monetary policy measures in order to stabilize and stimulate the economy. The Fed started lowering the Federal Funds Rate back in late 2007, as a response to the rising unemployment at the time. This is the most traditional monetary policy measure, which aims to stimulate both businesses and individuals to borrow and spend more, which in turn would lead to an increase in economic activity. When rates are low borrowing money to start a business, buy a house or a car looks much more appealing and attractive. When the economy is in a recession such monetary policy actions are helpful and needed, but if interest rates stay very low for way too long after the economy stabilizes, then the higher spending levels caused by the cheap available credit would simply lead to higher inflation. Inflation has been one of the most heavily discussed subjects so far in 2021 and rightfully so. You see, a substantial increase in inflation is a net negative for all of the major markets out there – Bonds, Stocks, USD Bonds Inflation is a bond’s worst enemy as basically a bond is a contractual agreement between a borrower (Seller of the bond) and a lender guaranteeing that the Lender (Buyer of the bond) would be receiving the bond’s Face Value at maturity plus all of the regular and fixed interest payments (coupons) up until that point. Well, considering that both the Face Value and Coupon are fixed US Dollar amounts, a higher inflation would basically erode the real returns of that bond. To put it in simple words if the yield on a 10-year Treasury bill is 2%, that means that the investor is guaranteed to get a 2% annual return on that bond investment. However, if annual inflation is at 5%, then that makes the bond investment much less appealing as an investor would be technically losing 3% per year in such environment. This is the main reason why bond yields constantly adjust to both Inflation and Interest Rate expectations. When Inflation goes up, Interest Rate expectations start shifting towards expecting a rate hike, which leads to lower bond prices and higher bond yields. This dynamic exists and occurs as in an inflationary environment bonds become less attractive and in order for demand to come back to the bond market investors need to see an adjustment in the bond yields (an increase), which will protect them against inflation and would make it worthwhile for investors to lend their money to the US government by buying these bonds instead of putting it in a savings account with the bank. The bond yields rise either when we see a rate hike or when investors expectations of a rate hike increase. This mechanic ends up protecting bond investors in a higher-interest and inflation driven environment and makes bonds more stable and attractive investment vehicles than stocks. Stocks With stocks it is much more straightforward. Stocks trade largely on current as well as discounted future corporate profits, and higher rates tend to cut into profits because they increase the cost of money. Additionally, when rates are higher that means that discounting future cash flows to the present occurs with a higher denominator, which leads to lower profitability. If the underlying reason for higher rates is inflation, rising prices and wages also increase a company's costs, which further erodes profits. As you can see higher inflation and higher rates lead to plenty of problems for stocks. USD Last but not least, inflation is also bad for the US Dollar as it erodes the purchasing power of every dollar in circulation. To put it in simple words, if you have $100,000 in your savings account earning 1% interest annually, but the inflation in the country sits at 3% you would technically lose 2% from the purchasing power of your capital, or in other words $2,000, in just 1 year. Now, after seeing why and how higher rates and higher inflation affect Bonds, Stocks and the US Dollar, you probably understand why all journalists, economists, investors, hedge fund managers, politicians, central bankers etc. are constantly discussing these topics. Inflation and Interest rates expectations are not static but rather very dynamic and are constantly modified and affected by economic reports, central bank commentary, monetary and fiscal stimulus etc. The predominant view in the market at the moment is comprised of the following elements: 1.”The US economy is on fire” – companies continue to deliver better than expected earnings, consumers are sitting on record levels of savings, people are eager to get back to their normal lives eating out, traveling, shopping. 2. “We will see 8-10% GDP growth in the 2nd half of the year” 3. “Inflation will continue to rise as a result of the low interest rate environment and the huge spending driven mostly by the heavy Fiscal Stimulus by the US Government. 4. “The Fed need to raise rates sooner in order to prevent a hyperinflation scenario” 5. “The Fed will most likely end up being behind the curve once they start tapering, which will force them to rise interest rates quicker” Now, while all of the above-listed arguments make sense to a certain extent, we believe that some of the most recent movements in the US Dollar Index (DXY) as well as the price action in the bond market, which sent bond yields lower despite the hawkish Fed in mid-June are giving us very valuable indications that there is more to that equation. We believe that the whole narrative that is circulating at the moment starts from the wrong place. Considering the fact that the US Dollar is the global reserve currency and that it has a direct impact on both US and Global inflation levels and GDP growth, every US economic analysis should start from analyzing the US Dollar performance and its possible future trends. It is true that inflation expectations affect the value of the dollar and that some people might argue that this is a “what’s first the chicken or the egg” argument, but the US Dollar is so much more than the inflation expectations that people throw at it left and right. The USD is the most influential currency in the world and depending on whether it gets stronger or weaker we see whole countries, regions and even continents either struggling or prospering. The US Dollar index (DXY) has been in a clear downtrend throughout the last 15 months, as a result of the unprecedented printing of money that we have witnessed by the Fed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic shock to the economy. The monetary M2 supply in the US increased from $15.5 trillion in February, 2020 to $18.84 trillion in October, 2020 and to $20.1 trillion in April, 2021. This represents a 21.29% increase in 2020 and a 29.7% increase year over year. Technically, such a massive printing of liquidity debases and devalues the underlying currency. As a result of that and the increased inflation speculations and worries among investors we have seen the US Dollar index dropping from $103 down to the $90 level. A lot of negativity has already been priced in the US Dollar as the logic shows that inflation will definitely be picking up, which makes it unattractive to hold significant cash reserves. Thus, everybody has been selling the USD for over a year now. However, what happened in the beginning of the year (January) was that the DXY reached the $90 strong multi-year support and found a lot of buying interest there. After a strong rebound up towards the $94 level back in April, the index came back and re-tested the $90 level and once again found a lot of buying interest, which pushed the price back up to the $92 mark in a matter of few trading sessions. This has created a clear double-bottom pattern with rising relative strength and a clear bullish interest at these levels. We believe that this is something that not many people are paying attention to as they are riding on the bandwagon that the “Dollar is going lower”. However the $90 support has been a crucial level for the DXY going all the way back to 1990s. Back in 2018 that was the exact level where the DXY stopped declining and reversed the 1.5 year long bear market that the USD was trading within since the start of 2017. The reason why we believe that the way the USD moves is so crucial at the moment comes from the fact that the main argument right now for a tighter monetary policy is associated with the “double-digit” GDP growth that everybody expects in the 2nd half of the year and the inflation that this is expected to create in the economy. Well, it seems that most people have forgotten that currency appreciation usually reduces inflation because imports become cheaper and the lower prices lead to lower inflation. It also makes imports more attractive, causing the demand for local products to fall. Local companies usually have to cut costs and increase productivity so they can remain competitive. Furthermore, that means that with the higher price, the number of U.S. goods being exported will likely drop. This eventually leads to a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP), which is definitely not a benefit. That translates to a benefit of lower prices, leading to lower overall inflation. The bond market also signaled that it does not expect the Fed to start tightening any time soon as there was a clear discrepancy between the hawkish Fed and the movement in the 10Y Treasury yields. You see, usually when an Interest Rate hike takes place or when Interest Rate expectations shift towards an increase in the Federal Funds rate, that is considered as bullish for bond yields. The reason for that as we pointed out earlier is associated with the fact that a rising interest rate environment and a potential for higher inflation makes bonds less attractive at the current extremely low yields. Bond yields then go up in order to bring back investors to the Bond market. Well, that has not happened this time around as even though we had a surprisingly hawkish Fed in mid-June, the 10Y Treasury yield has continued to fall. It seems that the 40-year long bull market for bonds has further to go. The Bond market always gives indications as to what is actually happening in the economy but very few people know how to read the correlations and information properly. The most recent price action in the 10Y Treasury yield shows that the real probability of the Fed tightening sooner than expected is much lower than what the equity markets and all other market participants are currently pricing in. Bond investors tend to have more macro-oriented view, which allows them to see the big picture better. So what does that mean? Well, with the US Dollar threatening to reverse its 1-2 year downtrend and break above the critical resistance sitting at 92-93 and Bond yields falling, the economy and inflation growth will be tamed organically by the higher dollar. We believe that this would lead to the Federal Reserve also pushing back its tightening program, which in turn will reignite risk-appetite in the market. Thus, we expect to see Growth outperforming Value in the coming months.
TVC:DXYLong
by DowExperts
The 5 ways civilizations collapseI watched a great video about the collapse of civilizations and I'd like to comment on it, with a bit more of a focus on the economic reasons and outcomes. 1- Crushed in a war by a far stronger force Destroyed, or elite destroyed (government & big banks & business owners) Aztec Inca Baghdad Carthage... Modern examples include Iraq and Libya. Just look at before and after pictures. Libya was destroyed by the USA and has returned to slavery, Iraq is some sort of warzone with a currency being literally sold as a ponzi scheme (search the Iraqi Dinar scam), he by the way the "it will go up" Dinar crashed so hard a few months ago I wasn't sure if it was worth posting about. PRO TIP: DO NOT INVEST IN A COUNTRY THE USA ARE ABOUT TO "BRING DEMOCRACY" TO! 2- Too aristocratic Central American, Andean, Greek, Anatolian, Syrian, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Indus Valley, Khmer civilizations ended in big part because they were too inegalitarian. (Very) ancient civilizations were all ultra aristocratic with the population getting vampirized by a minority through slavery (wageslavery), ravenous taxes (reminds me of something), human sacrifices. And they went down the same way. In ~1150 BC all civilizations around the anatolian peninsula (including the famous Mycenaean one in Greece) rapidly collapsed at around the same time. In some cases tiny barbarian armies were able to wipe out much stronger civilizations. The reason is the population hated their parasitic rulers and did not want to pay heavy taxes for their rulers to waste (ancient elites did not know well how to manipulate a population into submission and even WANTING higher taxes, also people used to have more common sense) The world entering the iron age meant the plebes could easily get armed, and an unfair government with crushing taxes would simply get killed (like in France in 1789). I wonder why today governments are trying so hard to disarm the population? Probably just a coincidence. Ancient Egypt near the end had taxes that could get as high as 60%. Huh with 25% corporate taxes plus 20% VAT plus 15% social contributions plus 10-50% income tax plus other taxes we're easily reaching that Egypt max and even going past it. We do not have that much evidence of bronze age nations, but more recently we know that the American and French revolutions started as tax revolts against unfair privileged governments. Everyone knows this, it's clear, precise, not my opinion, unlike the subjective list Davos made on how civilizations end (link at the bottom of this article). Inequality also allowed some ruling class to replace the previous one, like with the Caliphates for example. The population was keen for a change of government. These bronze nations with crushing taxes I mentioned could never grow very big and collapsed with the iron age (bronze weapons and armors were expensive and slow to make but not iron which allowed the peasants to get armed and not submit). Following their collapse large empires rose, such as the Roman and Persian mega-empires (at its height, 50% of the world population lived in the Persian empire, talk about a beast). Rome only had a 1% wealth tax from what I've read and did not over-rely on slaves. Rome lasted 1000 years and ended because of decadence. Obviously treating the population fairly (mostly with reasonable taxes, that's really all they care about), rather than a population that hates the rulers and would see foreign invaders as saviors, is what allowed these empires to grow and maintain their size. Modern governments tricked the workers into thinking "only the rich pay" and playing this childish "divide to conquer" tactic, but everyone pays, and people over time slowly figure it out. Some extremely ignorant and stupid members of the population support 90% taxes. Never seen in history. Cool so a company hiring workers will have to charge $10,000 for them, pay $9000, and there's $1000 left as wage minus the owner margin with life being way more expensive (hiring a $2000 wage plumber would cost $20,000). In inflation adjusted terms if basic workers still get charged $3000, rather than getting a wage of $1500 they'll get 10% so $300, minus the boss margin. Brilliant! So they would be totally reliant on welfare. And what? Even more mad at companies that pay them a misery wage? And ask for even higher taxes? Lol how are they falling for this? This explains why western government are doing everything to prevent people becoming their own boss, or they'd see it first hand. 3- Becoming too conservative After the great plague this happened: - MENA became ultra conservative, with Sharia law, and looking for the "return to the golden age". Still to this day they are primitive and ultra conservative. Iran had a ray of light of progress with the shah 50-60 years ago but it was short lived, the medieval backwards religious leaders quickly took over and imposed their rule of darkness. - India well... They were 40% or more of world GDP before, and they dropped to some unbelievable low number like 1%. They roll themselves in cow dung and bathe in the radioactive Ganga river. And open defecate. The Maharaja and silk road traders would never believe this future. It's beyond, I'd cry if I was indian. - China: I think most of the great wall was built by the Ming dynasty (1368–1644), or rebuild. They got into isolationist policies, got bureaucratic, corrupt and superstitious and stagnated at best. - West Africa: At the hand of slavers with primitive superstitions I guess. China still has their bureaucrats. Maybe that's why Africa is so poor, they whole civilizations were centered around slavers, and now they can't do that, meanwhile China is still allowed to have its bureaucrats (some of it works for them it's too much that is bad). - Russia: Became the third Rome. Went from an area of maybe 1-2 million square kilometer in east Europe and half of France population to this monster of 20 million square km and 3+ times France pop. - West Europe: Age of Enlightenment, progress and so on. Unlike others that had an unfair ruling class (Brahmins/Priests in India, Slavers in Sahel, Bureaucrats in China, Samurais in Japan, etc), the West had a balance between the monarchy, merchants, warriors and priests. Wealth equality was way greater back then that it is today. Yes the industrial revolution was a big factor. The conservative "civilizations" like China had contempt for the West, and saw them as irrelevant weirdoes. And then they went through centuries of humiliations and conquests by the West. To this day the (declining) West still makes 50% of world GDP. A funny example is India in 1000 AD during the muslim domination. The superstitious ruling priests in the face of muslim invasions rather than use taxpayer money to build armies, built... temples... are you serious? Well it did not work. Before that at the start of the iron age the old bible civs (Babylon, Assyrians...) that were ruled by corrupt and superstitious priests were wiped out by the mighty Persian empire, and Persians were so nice that people actually wanted to live there the priests had no chance of rallying the population and start a rebellion. As I explained in 2-. Bruh: "Darius allegedly asked his satraps whether the tribute was not too high. When they said it was moderate, Darius ordered that they should pay only half as much.". Another version says he took taxes and returned half of it "back to the people" (tax returns?). The empire was at its greatest extent under his rule which was in the early days of it. He divided taxes by 2 and everyone wanted to join. You don't always need huge armies. Unlike the modern west, Persia DID NOT PROVIDE AN "US VERSUS THEM" STORY. Can you imagine? A huge empire, and no divide. People actually enjoyed living there. No divide to conquer. www.oxfordhandbooks.com 4- Becoming too reformist The flip side of the conservative coin. Look at China with the cultural revolution. They went from what maybe 15% of world GDP to 1%, and they were the poorest country in the world. Russia in the early 1900s was a big empire, the 4rth world economy (smallest than Canada today) and if their population bred like non communist countries (UK, France, Germany), they'd have a population of at least a quarter of a million, they'd probably be nearly as powerful as the United States. The marxist reformists hurt Russia so much it's nauseating. They set them back at least a century. Yes there was technological and standard of living progress but of course there was! Even in Somalia. It's worldwide. It's like a super strong uptrend but within that worldwide uptrend they lagged behind. The reformists have no moral boundaries and work to totally destroy the "old world" to reach their idiotic utopia. These disgusting creatures are an absolute plague to humanity and set civilizations back centuries. They love to destroy statues, change constitutions, send people to camps, burn books etc. Hitler said about Christianity as "We have no sort of use for a fairy story invented by the Jews" and criticized its weakness compared to glorious islam, Catholics were sent to camps (especially Jehovah Witnesses) and moral standards went poof. Germany lost 1/3 of its territory, 15 million Germans were deported, West Europe stopped ruling the world, the USD became the reserve currency, and so on. Communists are so evil and stupid they dried up the Aral Sea for their "great" irrigation projects, and destroyed entire forests. The Aral Sea was one of history greatest environmental tragedies. The region economy was devastated, bringing unemployment and hardship, the sea life is gone probably millions of species went extinct, the region is a pollution disaster. And some extremely dumb celebrities (pleonasm) think communism is the solution to save the climate. "There is so little confidence in Russia's economy that there are more Rubbles outside of it than inside" damn. How long for the confidence to come back? 100 years? more? The Soviet Union (I quote): - Destroyed every functioning social system in Russia in order to usher in their glorious revolution and utopia - Artists were totally controlled - The Church was wiped out - The most productive and hardworking members of the population were killed - The ruling class enslaved people in gulags - Standards of living were lowered for faster industrialization and make it look like progress, like it was working - Non Governmental organisations and clubbed were banned - Labor Unions were banned (the irony) - People that were 1 minute late to work were eliminated by the secret police, or people feared that was the case - Makes me want to vomit Societies are held together by structures such as religion, family, patriotism. The state is not intelligent enough to control and run everything. The state tries to run the economy it's a catastrophe. The state tries to run a pandemic OH MY GOD. Anything they do is shit and vomit. I'd say the state is not intelligent enough to not forget to breathe. Oxygen thieves. The French revolution resulted in The declaration of human rights which says the government must be held responsible via violence if necessary, revolt is not a right but a duty. The Americans that wrote their Bill of Rights literally 6 months later have a similar thing with their amendments or something. Of course these sickening evil creatures that are not Politicians but demagogues with 0 convictions that only care about personal success and power and getting votes have used manipulation and brainwashing to get away with everything, cause great harm, and not get held responsible. "Extreme reformers aren't smart enough to realize how dumb they are, thinking themselves geniuses (😆) and everything that's not under their control is an evil force that gets in the way of the great plan" Today the west is obviously at risk. How big is this risk? I can't tell because this would get me mass reported and banned, and maybe even sent to jail. (That answers the question). I cri evertiem. 5- Decadence Maybe the slowest way to end. How Rome ended but it was accelerated with decadence bringing in destroying armies (1-). The 3 natural stages: Barbarism, Civilization, Decadence. Greeks near the end (obviously) saw themselves as "above" earthly matters, and used slaves for work while they enjoyed themselves in "higher" ways. In other words they were lazy bums that felt morally superior and selfish greedy perverts that took it easy. Disconnected from the real world. A bit like modern westerners with robots and not wanting to work, and importing much of what they consume. And disconnected from reality, terrified of dying at 80, willing to ban hunting, and much more. We see low birth rates (there are Roman and Greek texts complaining about this, and blaming the nobles for "having fun" rather than procreate, for "being eager to see their bloodline die"). We see low (or no) economic growth. We see sexual perversions. And so on, you get the picture. An example is when germanic barbarians invaded roman south france (gaul), the local aristocracy claimed there was no danger, barbarian terrorists that cut heads off with massive axes were a tiny number of "lunatics" nothing to worry about and those that wanted to protect the region were far right islamophobes wups I mean germanophobes. The aristocracy smelled their own farts and were stuck inside their own heads and thought it was impossible for these third world barbarians to hurt in anyway their region. Morons. What options do the population have when the ruling class is useless? It's like cutting a serpent's head. Combine being useless to outlawing weapons and spreading propaganda to make sure "radicals" never gain power and you get an inevitable collapse. So to conclude, you have all these ways for societies to collapse, once great civilizations vanish. And today: Point 4 => Who will seriously invest in Russia? So much for marxist progress. Point 1 => Who will buy Iraqi Dinars or invest in Libya other than fools? Point 3 => Who will invest in Iran? Who wants to invest in Afghanistan? Point 2 => Who wants to invest in old Babylon and Egypt. Ye there are no recent examples. Point 5 => Who wants to invest in the Nikkei 225 since 1990? But there is 1 thing that survives all these collapses, that keeps its value: It's yellow and shiny 😉 The world economic forum made their own list of reasons definitely not biased, here is a link for a good laugh: www.weforum.org
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
Gold & silver longs Based on history, silver follows gold pricing as well as charts very closely on average. Based on the fact that nothing has been truly settled and the dollars power has recently gained. It is opening up a perfect time to get in as ride the up swing just wait for the MAC D for example to switch directions heading up. Based on the time of the charts. Indicators are starting to show. That the down trend is slowing, shifting to the upside again. TTCF is a stock with great things happening also that had a high spike today. You do not always have to buy and hold or sell you can watch a few charts looking for a upward momentum about to happen. Once you see the confirmation ride the swing then get out if you are worried about the he takes of selling then that will be your downfall. I am fairly new to really studying the charts but hey will tell you the news before it happens. I also will be pulling out shortly for a while. I will post a better trend as well as a few charts as to why. That’s just me personally but if you are newer I used a lot of indicators that helped me at first changing the chart type…..
TVC:SILVER
by mbang62
1