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Economy

4-8th April Economic Outlook!Hey traders, Today we're going to be looking through this weeks economic calendar. We're going to look at what data is going to be released and what really is going to be affecting the market. I will also share my bias on the different pairs and the different data being released to see if any of these are going to be tradeable or whether or not we should just kind of stay out of the market during these times of uncertainty. I hope you enjoy this outlook into the week ahead. It's going to be a quiet week compared to recent times unless we get any breaking news coming out of Russia and Ukraine. In terms of economic data releases, it is going to be a little bit quieter than usual. Monday - 4th April We don't have too much happening in our favor on Monday. Here the biggest release is the unemployment change for Spain. While it may move the euro just a little bit, I'm not seeing a whole lot of tradeable opportunity. I think Monday is going to be a lot better just to kind of sit back and watch to see what happens. Tuesday - 5th April On Tuesday, we get a little bit more exciting. We have a fair bit of data being released for us. 🟨 AIG Construction Index Early in the morning we have the AUD, AIG construction index. This index indicates how well the construction industry is actually running at the moment, it's not something we're going to trade, but rather it's good insight as looking ahead into the PMI, into our employment rates and then overall trade balance in the future. It is a good indication of how well the economy is running confined into that construction sector as it is a very large employer in Australia. 🟥 Cash Rate Coming in a little bit later in the day, we have a very large, definitely tradeable event with the RBA rate statement and their overall cash rate. The forecast is for it to remain at 0.10%. I believe this will remain at 0.10%. I'm not expecting any shock announcements. However, in the event we do get a shock number come through, it's going to be a very volatile time and a possible opportunity to be able to catch a lot of pips on the Aussie dollar. If we do get a shock event on this, it will move for a few hours prior to entering into the European market so keep an eye on this release. ⬜ EUR Looking ahead, we do get a lot of services PMI coming out for the euro, but not really looking to be trading that. I'd rather use that as an indication of how well the economy is running, looking ahead into future releases. 🟥 ISM Services PMI The biggest standout is the ISM services PMI for the US dollar. Obviously the market is forecasting growth in the services industry. I'm not too sure how well that's going to stand. It's not something I usually trade. However, given the previous data releases, I'm unsure if it's going to be able to maintain its bullish forecast. We've been told that construction spending is down, the manufacturing PMI, while still expanding has slower growth than what it was first anticipated. Our nonfarm employment change was negative. There's a lot of different areas suggesting that we may not be as hawkish as what the forecast says. So I do expect this to come in a little less than what we're looking at currently but only time will tell. Wednesday - 6th April 🟧 Crude Oil Inventories This is going to be an interesting one. This is something I've been looking to try to look to how it affects the US dollar, but rather something I'm just overly intrigued about given the current circumstances in the world. 🟥 FOMC Meeting Minutes FOMC meeting minutes is always volatile one. it is good to have a look through what the meeting discussed and how it went on. For users that don't know how this affects the market FOMC meeting minutes is a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Thursday - 7th April 🟨 AIG Service Index Another AUD index release. We have the construction index earlier in the week, now we have the services index coming out. Once again it's not something I trade, however, it is fantastic insight into retail sales data. When we do get those retail sales announced next week, we can use this services index to give us a pivotal action point on where those retail sales are aiming, which is why I've noticed that in today's economic calendar, it's worth noting because we can make a preemptive play on the retail sales data release. 🟨 Retail Sales The Euro retail sales expecting a little bit of an increase with the overall potential panic buying happening across Europe. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here. We massively missed the forecast in March. However, it is looking like they've been a little bit bearish while still forecasting growth of 0.6%. Banks are no longer aiming for the real high numbers, I think we're going to come in maybe around 1%, but I'm not putting money on that prediction, it is rather an assumption. I will have to do some more research and I recommend you do you same as well, having the services PMI come through this week from all the different countries within Europe is going to be a great insight into how well the economy is actually performing on the retail sales front. Friday - 8th April Nothing worth mentioning on Friday, the week is going to come to a slow stop. As I said, it is a bit of a slow week this week, only a few different data points worth noting, so we will end the week quite quiet. Obviously, we might have a bit more movement on the fundamental side of things next week but this week looks like it's lining to be a great technical analysis trading week. Always keep your eye on the whole Russia and Ukraine situation because anything can happen there and the market will react accordingly. Do keep your news streams live and in depth as you don't want to be caught off guard by anything going on over there. These are personally just my outlooks having a look into the future week. Do note the data to keep an eye on when they are released and of course you can use the TradingView calendar as well to keep note on that. Have a fantastic trading week, I wish you all the best success.
Education
by the5erstrading
The USD is showing strenghtThe US Dollar is showing strenght, being over the 210, 70, and 14 MAs, with a strong and bullish RSI (64+ weekly, 61+ daily) and an important cross over in the weekly MACD (210, 70, 14). In terms of chartism, we are ending a bearish trend channel that could be a fake break out, so we will not necesarily find short-term bullish positions. We could find bullish positions in leveraged ETFs over the USD Index, but for now I will just take into account the bullish trend of the most important global asset and how could this affect commodities, equities, bonds, and the global economy.
INDEX:DXYLong
by blockmas
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. The Four Rules of a Bear Market - The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month. - Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate. - If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell. - The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market. - Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action. - It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers. - I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market. - Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule. - About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third. - This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973. - Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened. - And finally, we have the 18-month rule. - While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months. - Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer. - If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long. - The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest. - If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run. - Missing that can be very costly for investors. So are we currently in a bear market? - Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market. - Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly. - Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market. - It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make. - If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio. - It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave. - A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear. Conclusion Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
53
TRON Grand Hackathon 2022 WINNERSTRON Grand Hackathon 2022 announced the winners of its Season 1 event. The panel of judges, which consists of eminent industry leaders, said they were pleased with the projects they received this season. They already await Season 2, where registration will begin on May 16, 2022. Running from March 8 to March 11, Season 1 amassed over 120 submissions, all vying for the aggregate prize money of $500M spread between four tracks, Web 3.0, NFT, GameFi, and DeFi. Season 1 Winners In the GameFi Track, the winner is TronNinja Arcade by the TronNinja Team. TronNinja is an NFT GameFi project on the TRON blockchain where users will be able to use their NFTs as characters in-game while earning in-game tokens. Their goal is to bring back the social aspect that arcades had. In the Web3 track, the winner is dCloud by Cctechmx. Their mission is to create an Open Source Web3 Cloud storage mobile app enabling its own ecosystem to enjoy a self-sustainable and shared economy.
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by spidgoastanid
US Dollar Falls after Hawkish Fed AnnouncemeToday's forex news: US Dollar Falls after Hawkish Fed Announcement EUR/USD ⬆️ GBP/USD ⬆️ AUD/USD ⬆️ USD/CAD ⬇️ USD/JPY ⬆️ XAU ⬆️ WTI ⬇️ On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 2.5%, also preparing further measures to contain inflation. However, the hawkish attitude was not thorough enough to strengthen the dollar against most major currencies, with EUR/USD closing at 1.1032 and GBP/USD at 1.3145. Meanwhile, investors await the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision – which will be announced later today (17 March). The AUD/USD pair saw a rise with the closing price at 0.7289, thanks to a positive job report indicating lower-than-expected unemployment rate at 4%, and an increase in gold prices at a closing price of 1,909.2, which is another response to the restrictive US monetary policy. US dollar struck a six-year high at 119.12 against Japanese Yen, as the east Asian country experienced a 7.3 magnitude earthquake yesterday (16 March), investors look to a safe haven currency until the earthquake’s aftermath is settled. Crude Oil, on the other hand, has settled lower at $95.04 per barrel. Since the US has increased its oil inventory, combined with optimism for other oil-producing OPEC members to increase supply, and China’s COVID outbreak slowing global consumption. Major U.S. stock indexes have surprisingly rallied despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase borrowing costs. United States 10-Year Bond Yield stabilized its rise, closing at 2.187%. 📱 Get instant market news delivered to you in real time on Mitrade
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
EUR/USD!Euro is weakening! What's NEXT?EUR/USD. The Euro began to fall against the Dollar due to Russia's attack on Ukraine. Conflict in Europe is a high risk and unpredictability of investment in the European economy leads to capital outflow to safer markets. The outflow of capital from the EU goes to the U.S. market, which causes Euro to fall against the Dollar. The price is now at 1.10 level and it is very close to the lows of 2016 when the price fell to a record low of 1.03. If the key level of 1.06 will be broken, a false breakout of this level is very possible, as it shown on the chart. Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU. P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy. Always make your analysis before a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
5
EUR/USD - false breakout of key levels!In the face of sanctions the supply chain in Europe suffers, which leads to a decrease in the economy of the whole EU. EUR starts to fall against USD, as the EU economy takes a bigger hit than the U.S. economy. The price is now testing the global trend line and big trading range. If this trend line cannot resist the sellers' pressure, it will test the key level at $1.06. If there will no strong support, the next key level is $1.03. False breakout is possible in both cases, so watch for updates on the channel, where we will give all the relevant update. Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU! P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Alex_Dehtiarov