When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation.
The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making.
What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Economy
Bitcoin Buy Signal (1H)MEXC:BTCUSDT
As we knew before that when IDMs got grabbed,
after getting a SCOB on our structure time frame,
or wait for a ChoCh on the lower time frame (which now the LTF is 5 mins chart),
we can get into the position (which here is a Buy Position).
And now we had a ChoCh on the 5 mins time frame on Bitcoin which allows us to open a Buy Position.
P.S: Money & Risk Management is Crucial, Because nothing's certain in the market. :)
I will update Bitcoin regularly,
Follow me on TradingView for more.
Happy trading..
Cheers,
Aurio
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited notable weakness by falling below the Mean Support level of 5818 and subsequently establishing a new Mean Support at 5798. This development will likely prompt a decline toward the Inner Index Dip at 5733, with a potential extension to Mean Support at 5700. This support level is critical for enabling a primary recovery and advancing into the next phase of the bullish trend. Furthermore, it is essential to recognize that achieving levels of 5833 and 5700 may result in a rapid upward price reaction.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has experienced persistent bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, demonstrating insufficient strength to initiate any interim rebound. The prevailing selling pressure has lowered the Eurodollar to our Mean Support level of 1.079. A temporary rebound led to the reversal of the previously established Inner Currency Dip at 1.083, which currently stands as Mean Res 1.083 and might serve as the Interim Rebound's first stage. The Euro appears poised for further decline, potentially reaching the inner currency dip of 1.075, which remains notably significant and triggers second stage Interin Rebound to Mean Sup 1.078.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As stated in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Oct 18, the Bitcoin ''Interim Rebound'' completed our Inner Coin Rally of 69300 and retreated to the Mean Support level of 66800 and interim squeeze extension of the Mean Support of 65300 in this week's trading session. Currently, we anticipate the onset of a primary rebound, which is expected to facilitate recovery and further advancement into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week’s trading session, the index demonstrated substantial strength by exceeding the Outer Index Rally level of 5840 and achieving the subsequent milestone at 5861. This accomplishment will likely precipitate a squeeze toward the Mean Support level 5818. This support is crucial for facilitating the primary recovery and advancing into the next phase of the bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment again during this week's trading session, with the prevailing selling pressure completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.083. A transient rebound is in progress to the Mean Res 1.090. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 and the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 remains substantial.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Bitcoin ''Interim Rebound'' rammed through our Mean Res 66300 and Inner Coin Rally 67000 and rested at our Mean Res 68500 in this week's trading session, and it is currently poised to hit Inner Coin Rally 69300. A breach of this critical price level will catalyze a movement towards the all-time prices marked as Key Res 73200 and the completed Main Inner Coin Rally 73300. However, on the downside, the interim bearish sentiment may lead to a decline in the coin's price value to the Mean Support level of 66800 and possibly the Mean Support of 65300. Only then will the primary recovery and advancement into the subsequent phase of the bullish movement be realized.
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024,
compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2.
It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West.
The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence.
In September alone, there were some positive signs:
industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%.
On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%.
During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5%
(September/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April.
Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%).
Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%).
Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%).
On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%).
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024)
source: European Central Bank
- The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June.
The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively.
This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well.
In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years.
While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025.
Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing.
The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7%
source: Office for National Statistics
-Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%.
The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels.
Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001.
Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023.
In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%).
Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
Inflation Data (September/2024)
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024,
below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%.
This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June,
highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to address growing deflation risks.
Non-food prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in August as the cost of transport shrank further (-4.1% vs -2.7%) due to lower crude oil prices.
Also, housing prices edged down (-0.1% vs flat reading) amid government efforts to further regulate the property market. Meanwhile, cost slowed for health (1.2% vs 1.3%) and education (0.6% vs 1.3%).
On the food side, prices rose for the second month, with the rate of increase the fastest in 20 months (3.3% vs 2.8%).
Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.1% yoy, the smallest rise since February 2021, after a 0.3% gain in August. Monthly, the CPI was unchanged, compared with consensus and August’s print of a 0.4% rise.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the previous week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of October 4, it was observed that the index maintained considerable strength at the Mean Sup 5700 on Monday. The remaining days of the weekly trading sessions have demonstrated substantial and vigorous progress, surpassing the previously completed Inner Index Rally at 5763 and its progress towards the Outer Index Rally at 5840. The upcoming trading session will demonstrate further sentiment regarding the bullish sentiment to hit the 5840 target. However, recognizing that achieving the 5840 mark will incite a volatile downward price action is crucial.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, reaching our reignited Inner Currency Dip of 1.090. The prevailing selling pressure towards the support level of 1.079 is temporarily halted. A transient rebound is anticipated due to the significance of completing the Inner Currency Dip. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 remains substantial.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Bitcoin "Interim Squeeze" channel underwent retesting during this week's trading session. It exhibited upward movement to Mean Res 64000 and subsequent downward movement to Mean Sup 60200, and it is currently poised to return to Mean Res 64000. A breach of this critical resistance level will catalyze a movement towards the Inner Coin Rally 67000 target, accompanied by further upward momentum, with the primary objective being the subsequent Inner Coin Rally identified at 69300. However, failure to achieve this rally will result in a downside interim bearish sentiment, leading to a decline in the coin's price to the Mean Support level of 58000 and possibly an Inner Coin Dip of 55500. Only then will the primary recovery and advancement into the subsequent phase of the bullish movement be realized.
$USSIRY -U.S CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
US Inflation Rate Slows Less Than Expected
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in September,
the lowest since February 2021 but surpassing market expectations of 2.3%.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the same as in August.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3%, while the monthly gauge remined at 0.3%.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the preceding week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of Sep 27, the index adhered to the anticipated behavior by attaining the robust support level at Mean Sup 5700. This notable resurgence in the primary trend will likely prompt a robust bull movement toward the completed Inner Index Rally at 5763, with a high probability of surpassing it and progressing towards the awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840 within the upcoming trading session. It is imperative to acknowledge that reaching these objectives will trigger a volatile downward sentiment price action.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar exhibited significant bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, and uncertainty prevailed regarding the currency trajectory amid Dead-Cat rebound activity. Three critical support levels were breached: Mean Support at 1.111, 1.108, and 1.101, ultimately stabilizing at the pivotal Mean Support of 1.097. The prevailing short-term buying pressure propels the currency towards a potential upward movement to the Mean Resistance level of 1.103. Nevertheless, the likelihood of further declines to the supplementary Inner Currency Dip at 1.090 remains strong, given the current interim price action.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The "Interim Squeeze" of Bitcoin has witnessed a significant decline to our Mean Support levels at 64400 and 63100, as well as the newly established 60200. On the upside, the cryptocurrency is approaching the critical Mean Resistance level of 64000. A breach of this pivotal level will trigger the movement to the Inner Coin Rally 67000 target, accompanied by further upward momentum, with the primary objective being the subsequent Inner Coin Rally identified at 69300. Nevertheless, the prevailing market interim bearish sentiment anticipates a drop to the Mean Support level at 58000, with the potential for an extension to the Inner Coin Dip 55500 before initiating the primary recovery and progressing into the subsequent phase of the bullish movement.
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar.
The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now.
Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel.
Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan.
Line graph for visualization.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has recently exhibited a classic gap-fill pattern, reaching 5739 with an adjusted Index Rally to 5763 during the current week's trading sessions. However, there is a strong likelihood of a retracement to the newly established Mean Support at 5700 in the upcoming week. This potential retracement could lead to a further descent to the subsequent Mean Support level at 5620, potentially disrupting the current trajectory. Conversely, a substantial rebound to the Outer Index Rally at 5840 may intercept an anticipated downward trend, nullifying the projected decline.