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Economy

$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more. It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007. Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C Elliot Waves Correction (attached ideas) Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session of the current week, the Eurodollar sustained its decline by the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The prevailing analysis indicates a continued downward trajectory toward a Mean Support of 1.081 and its corresponding Mean Support of 1.078. The anticipated downward movements will result in an initial interim rebound, potentially reaching a Mean Resistance of 1.089.
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index, also known as Spooz, demonstrated a significant downward trend, as analysed in the Weekly Chart for July 19. It reached the anticipated Mean Support level at 5449 and Key Support at 5420. There is an expectation of a swift recovery after reaching these levels, propelling the price toward the designated Mean Resistance target at 5567. Nonetheless, the prevailing price action indicates a sustained primary decline toward the Key Sup 5350 and Inner Index Dip of 5345 in the forthcoming week/week's trading sessions. It is acknowledged that these achieved targets will exert pressure for a robust rebound.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
A look at M2 Money Stock Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is perfectly accurate, I am not a financial expert or advisor, but it is an interesting overview. Enjoy. 1) Introduction: Money Stock Measure 2, or M2, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply that includes various types of financial assets held by the public. It encompasses M1 — which consists of the most liquid forms of money like cash and checking deposits — and adds less liquid forms such as savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market mutual funds. This broader measure provides a more complete picture of the available money within an economy than M1 alone. 2) Why M2 Matters to the Economy and the Stock Market: Monetary Policy Indicator: M2 growth rates can indicate the looseness or tightness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rapid growth in M2 may suggest a looser policy with potential implications for lower interest rates, while slower growth could indicate a tightening policy stance. Economic Health Predictor: Fluctuations in M2 can signal upcoming changes in economic activity. An expanding M2 typically suggests that more money is flowing into the economy, potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic growth. However, if this expansion leads to inflation without an accompanying increase in real output, it could be detrimental. Interest Rate Influence: Since M2 impacts interest rates, it indirectly affects the stock market. Lower interest rates from an increased M2 can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate both capital expenditures and consumer spending, which generally supports higher stock prices. Inflation Expectations: Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money. An inflating M2 can lead investors to adjust their expectations, impacting bond yields and stock valuations. 3) As an investor, monitoring M2 can enhance decision-making in several ways: Growth Trends: Observing whether M2 is expanding or contracting can provide clues about future economic conditions and monetary policy directions, helping investors anticipate market movements. Asset Allocation: During periods of M2 expansion (indicative of lower interest rates), investors might favor stocks, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary that benefit from increased consumer spending. Conversely, a slowdown in M2 growth could be a signal to move towards safer assets like short-term bonds, which are less sensitive to interest rate rises. Sector Impacts: Different sectors react differently to changes in M2. For example, financials might benefit from higher interest rates, while sectors sensitive to consumer spending could gain from an expansionary M2 environment. Inflation Hedge: Rapid increases in M2 that might lead to inflation suggest that investors should consider assets that typically perform well during inflationary periods, such as commodities or real estate. Global Considerations: For those invested internationally, understanding how M2 changes affect global markets and capital flows is crucial, particularly in how developed economies' liquidity influences emerging markets. 4) Conclusion: M2 is a critical economic indicator that offers valuable insights into future monetary policies, economic health, and market directions. It is not a perfect metric on its own, but by integrating M2 data into broader market analyses and considering its implications on different sectors and asset classes, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their portfolios to better navigate the complexities of financial markets.
FRED:WM2NS
by Dr_Roboto
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %) Q1/2024 source: EUROSTAT The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022. The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected. Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY , the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service #UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator. An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate it would give your non confirmation Top Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.
NYSE:UPSShort
by BallaJi
14
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin exhibited significant down movement by reaching our Mean Support level at 64000 and subsequently rebounded strongly to retest our Mean Resistance level at 68200, as outlined in the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The overall trend indicates progression toward the Inner Coin Rally at 70400, a retest of the completed Main Inner Coin Rally at 73200, and striding on to the anticipated long-term target of the Outer Coin Rally at 92000. It's important to note the initial downward pressure on the primary support at 65400 as the coin moves upward.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz has once again demonstrated resilience in this week's trading session by banging on Key Res 5635 and completed Inner Index Rally 5642. This week's achievement was also the completion of Inner Index Rally 5668. The prevailing price action suggests a continuous primary decline toward the Mean Support at 5449 and a conceivable extension to the Mean Support at 5420. Anticipation surrounds a prompt recovery after attaining these targets, directing the price toward the designated target of Mean Resistance at 5567, with a conceivable extension to Key Resistance at 5666 in the impending week's trading session.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a notable surge once again, exceeding the Mean Resistance level of 1.090 and the previously attained Inner Currency Rally of 1.091, ultimately reaching this week's Inner Currency Rally of 1.094. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained downward movement towards Mean Sup 1.086 and its corresponding Mean Sup 1.081. The concluded downward movements are anticipated to yield an initial interim rebound, such as Mean Res 1.086.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated an upward trend in the current week's trading, aligning with the projections outlined in the Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of July 12. Both the Mean Resistance level at 60400 and the subsequent Mean Resistance level at 62800 were not only reached but surpassed greatly. The overall trajectory is progressing towards the long-anticipated target of the Outer Coin Rally at 92000. Concurrently, two significant interim milestones have emerged: the Inner Coin Rally at 70400 and a retest of the completed Main Inner Coin Rally at 73300. It is imperative to underscore the substantial downward primary squeeze pressure toward 64000, prevalent across all specified upper target levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate YoYECONOMICS:JPIRYY (March/2024) The annual inflation rate in Japan ticked lower to 2.7% in March 2024 from February's 3-month peak of 2.8%, matching market consensus. There were slowdowns in prices of transport (2.9% vs 3.0% in February), clothes (2.0% vs 2.6%), furniture & household utensils (3.2% vs 5.1%), healthcare (1.5% vs 1.8%), communication (0.2% vs 1.4%), and culture & recreation (7.2% vs 7.3%). At the same time, inflation was stable for food (at 4.8%), housing (at 0.6%), education (at 1.3%), and miscellaneous (at 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of fuel, and light dropped the least in a year (-1.7% vs -3.0%), with electricity (-1.0% and -2.5%) and gas (-7.1% vs -9.4%) falling at softer paces as energy subsidies from the government would fully end in May. The core inflation rate fell to 2.6% from a four-month top of 2.8%, slightly below forecasts of 2.7%. Monthly, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in March, the most since last October, after being flat in the prior two months. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024) source: Office for National Statistics The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024, the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%. The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April. At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%). On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels. The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar has demonstrated a substantial surge, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 1.085 and reaching the designated target of Mean Res 1.090 and the previously completed Inner Currency Rally of 1.091. The prevailing analysis suggests a potential downward movement for the Euro toward the Mean Support level of 1.086, with additional extensions identified at Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078, respectively.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Over the course of this week's trading, Bitcoin has continuously traded within the range of the completed Outer Coin Dip of 54000 and the Mean Resistance level at 57900. Our analysis anticipates a potential breakout from this fluctuation zone, implying upward movement toward the Mean Resistance level at 60400 and possibly further to the subsequent Mean Resistance level at 62800. It is important to note the presence of potential downward squeeze pressure at the specified target level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$DXY -Decisive Move Around the Corner !!! Dollar Index TVC:DXY on the cusp of making a major move TA speaking ; (100.8 or 110) - To the upside starting currently by jumping at 200EMA and breaking recent highs within pattern while facing strong resistance just above on Range Ceiling(105) and last Highs of 107(ChoCh). - Either falling off a cliff headed in to re-visiting Range Bottom of 100.82 (Swing/Positioning) Fundamentally speaking ; Would be a great move to the Upside for TVC:DXY Fundamentally speaking, resulting so on SHORTING anti-correlated assets, such as EUR/USD and other FX pairs. Must be time for TVC:DXY to strengthen even more, makes sense ,, otherwise Recession is just ahead ! On headlines , CPI ECONOMICS:USIRYY is coming lower, with economists awaiting Fed Cuts ECONOMICS:USINTR cuts by end year. However, worth mentioning is that wealth hedges such as TVC:GOLD continues to be stocked up in piles of tonnes from China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and not only; China's Wealthy Class is also in the process of purchasing pure physical Gold *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
5
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has surpassed the Mean Resistance level of 1.074 and is currently positioned below the Mean Resistance level of 1.085. The present analysis indicates a potential down movement for the Euro to the Mean Resistance level of 1.078 and subsequently decrease to the Mean Support level of 1.074. However, it is essential to acknowledge the potential for an upward extension towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.090.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has retraced to our pre-established completed Inner Coin Dip level of 59000, Outer Coin Dip of 57000, and current Outer Coin level of 54000. We anticipate a recovery from this landmark move, with a target to attain the Mean Resistance at 57900 and extend to the Mean Resistance at 60400. Conversely, our principal downside objectives encompass a retest of the completed Outer Coin Dip 54000 and potentially the subsequent Outer Coin Dip 51000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter