Bitcoin Performance - Trump vs BidenThis is a follow up to the Stock Market Propaganda graphic that has been going around stating the markets performed better under Biden vs Trump.
This is an outright lie.
I posted a chart yesterday on the Bitcoin performance for each President's time, but I mixed the dates up due to my lack of sleep with my newborn so reposting now.
(TV doesn't let you delete ideas)
After re-analyzing, Bitcoin actually performed 3,822% better with Trump!
Don't believe the lies that are being spread. DYOR!
Economy
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 28, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz has exhibited marked downward price action during this week's trading session, swiftly descending on the last trading day of the week from our designated Key Resistance level of 5488. It displays distinctive interim bearish price action characteristics, targeting Mean Support levels at 5449 and 5420. Anticipated renewed upward movement is expected from one of these specified price targets.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 28, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading session, the Eurodollar gyrated back and forth between our Mean Res 1.074 and Mean Sup 1.067. Currently, it is performing a dead cat rebound back to the completed Mean Res 1.074 target; However, the possibility of a sudden downturn to the first designated extension, termed as the completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.060, cannot be discounted.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 28, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has declined to our predetermined Mean Support and Next Inner Coin Dip levels of 60700 and 66500, respectively. We anticipate a rebound from this point, aiming to reach the Mean Resistance at 62500 and Inner Coin Rally level at 63300, with potential for further upward movement. Conversely, our downside targets encompass revisiting the completed Inner Coin Dip at 59000 and the completed Outer Coin Dip at 57000.
Unemployment & The Coming RecessionOnce the Unemployment Rate crosses the 36 mo MA this has historically marked a period of
a coming Recession. As you can tell from the RSI indicator we entered into this phase a few months ago.
I'm posting this chart because tomorrow Biden is going to tell everyone how great the Economy is doing (wait for it), but the Unemployment Chart indicates we have officially moved into the "Recession" category and there is nothing on the horizon that says this situation is going to be improving, in fact, millions of illegal aliens now flooding into the country indicates the situation will be getting much worse. Banks will begin seizing a record number of properties in foreclosures and bankruptcies as the Unemployment Rate continues upward thanks to the plans they implemented. These periods of "Boom and Bust" are completely fabricated through the policies they implement. There is no reason why this chart shouldn't be mostly a steady line with minor hills and valleys in what would be considered a growing and healthy economy. Also note the Unemployment Rate has never returned back to it's 1972 levels following the removal of the Gold Standard in 1971 by Nixon.
Nasdaq Slapped- Like u saw yesterday, BTC dipped but the main reason for now is just the global economy being worst.
- Nasdaq Companies made big % lost yesterday - here the main list - www.cnbc.com
- The Covid19 caused a fast dip followed by a mega pump based on stimulus (brrrrr), now the real dip is ongoing.
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Trading Part ( Long Term )
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- Buy 1 : 12,000$
- Rebuy : 10,500$ - 11,000$
TP : before 20,000$
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- This Analyze of course can be faked by a strong money printing (Brrrrrrrrrrrr)
Happy Tr4Ding and St4y Safe !
Macro Monday 52 - Vietnam – The Global Food Supply Giant Macro Monday 52
Vietnam – A Global Food Supply Giant & Diverse Manufacturer
According to a report by global wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth and investment, Vietnam is forecast to see a 125% increase in wealth over the next 10 years. This would be the largest expansion in wealth of any country in terms of GDP per capita and number of millionaires, according to the New World Wealth.
“Vietnam is positioned to see the sharpest increase in wealth growth in the world over the next decade as it cements its status as a global manufacturing hub” New World Wealth.
The GDP growth rate for Vietnam in 2024 is expected to meet the government’s target of 6.5% making it one of the fastest growing economies in terms of GDP growth, the GDP growth rate reached as high as 8% in 2022. Vietnam is also home to 100 million people with 70% of the population between the ages of 15 – 69 and 25% under the age of 15, offering some sustainability to the long-term workforce.
Vietnam’s top exports:
1. Electrical machinery and equipment: Valued at $187.1 billion (40.8% of total exports).
2. Machinery including computers: Amounting to $40.1 billion (8.7%).
3. Footwear: Contributing $33.7 billion (7.4%).
4. Knit or crochet clothing and accessories: Worth $21.5 billion (4.7%).
5. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, and prefabricated buildings: Totaling $21 billion (4.6%).
6. Clothing and accessories (not knit or crochet): Representing $20.1 billion (4.4%)
Footwear experienced the highest growth among these categories, increasing by 85% from 2021 to 2022. Additionally, machinery (including computers) saw a significant 66.3% advance in export sales during the same period. Nike and Adidas have established their main production bases in Vietnam. If there is one thing everyone needs, it’s a pair of shoes, a great staple for the country to specialize in.
Food Produce
In recent years, Vietnam has quietly transformed from a regional agricultural producer into a global food powerhouse. Its innovative food industry now plays a critical role in shaping the world’s food supply and that has not happened by chance. Vietnams food story is historic but has also been recently significantly leveraged through government incentives and investment. Vietnam’s impressive array of food exports includes rice, coffee, cassava, bananas, mangoes, and citrus fruits. These products not only sustain local communities but also have a substantial impact on feeding people worldwide.
If you ate rice recently or had a robusta coffee, there is an increasing probability that it came from Vietnam. Lets have a look at some of the main Vietnamese food exports that are critical to the global food supply
Rice
Vietnam will likely become the 2nd largest rice exporter in the world in the 2024/25 season, over taking Thailand’s current 2nd place export volume of 8.2 million tonnes annually. Vietnam exported approximately 7.6 million tonnes in the 2023 to 160 countries. This is expected to exceed 8.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. The Philippines remains Vietnams largest rice buyer, accounting for 45.5% of the country’s rice export turnover. It is interesting to revisit last weeks Macro Monday Country, the Philippines and their close trade ties with Vietnam. The Philippines is one of the largest producers of coconut oil. It is starting to look like South East Asia is a diverse set of critical food producers and disseminators.
India hold 1st place as the largest exporter of rice in the world, exporting 17 million tonnes annually. We must acknowledge China as the largest producer of rice in the world at 208 million tonnes, however China only exported c. 2.2 million tonnes, making China a lessor contributor to the supply of rice around the globe.
Coffee
Vietnam is also the 2nd largest coffee exporter in the world, exporting 1.5 million tons of coffee a year. It is their second most exported asset after rice. Vietnam is known as one of the world’s largest producers of the Robusta coffee bean. Remarkably, Vietnam contributes a significant 40% of the world’s overall Robusta bean production, renowned for its bitterness and suitability in well-rounded coffee blends.
Similar to the Ivory Coast, the largest producer/exporter of Cocoa in the world that we covered a few weeks ago, there is also a strong French colonial connection in Vietnam. Vietnam was colonised by the French between 1858 and 1900. This is relevant because the exploitation of natural resources for direct export was the chief purpose of most French investments post colonisation. The robusta coffee in Vietnam was introduced by the French during this period which is the only reason the region has the unique robusta coffee production and export ability. Whilst this could be perceived as having a good long term impact on Vietnams economy, there was a segment I came upon which outlined how rice production was significantly increased as early as the 1900’s, then pushed by the French colonists. This segment paints a tragic picture whilst helping us understand how these countries with favourable land and climates where forcefully farmed and natives subjugated;
“ Through the construction of irrigation works, chiefly in the Mekong delta, the area of land devoted to rice cultivation quadrupled between 1880 and 1930. During the same period, however, the individual peasant’s rice consumption decreased without the substitution of other foods. The new lands were not distributed among the landless and the peasants but were sold to the highest bidder or given away at nominal prices to Vietnamese collaborators and French speculators.” - Britannica Excerpt
Considering the above, it is easier to understand how these countries have become major producers but also major exporters for Rice, Coffee and Cocoa.
Robusta Coffee Background
Coffea canephora, commonly known as Robusta coffee, has its origins in central and western sub-Saharan Africa. Dutch botanists discovered it in its native form in the former Belgian Congo, and it was later introduced to Vietnam in 1900 after specific coffee rust disease devastated separate plantations in Ceylon(Sri Lanka) and Java (Indonesia). You might recognise these names for the famous name sakes, Ceylon Tea and Java Coffee (Arabica). It appears South East Asias has a strong history of production in not just tea, but coffee also.
Coffea canephora boasts several unique features. First, it contains nearly twice the caffeine compared to Arabica beans, contributing to its bold flavour and strength, making it ideal for espresso-based drinks and commercial blends. Second, Robusta plants thrive at lower altitudes (typically below 800 meters) and in hotter climates with ample rainfall. Their resilience against diseases and pests makes them a popular choice for coffee farmers in tropical regions. Lastly, Robusta beans deliver a pronounced bitterness and are less aromatic than Arabica beans, appealing to those seeking a powerful coffee experience.
Now lets have a look at The Vietnam Stock Index which is valued in Vietnamese Dong.
The Vietnam Stock Index - HOSE:VNINDEX
- You can clearly see a long term ascending triangle and a rising 10 month moving average. The targets and trade structure is clear and presents a great long term potential upside over 5 – 10 year time horizon.
VanEck Vietnam ETF - HOSE:VNM
For a shorter term play, and to take advantage of this growing economy, you could invest in the VanEck Vietnam ETF between now and 2026.
- Ideally you would want the price to break out above the red line (POC) and find support above the 200 Day SMA (Blue Line). Once the 200 Day SMA is sloping upwards it would be a matter of riding the trend.
- Given price has been gradually making higher lows since 2020, we can presume that this is a long term increase in demand gradually pressing up price. We have a stop placed with a 6.5% downside risk with potential for 77% return or an earlier exit if you wish with lessor percentage gained.
- The structure for the trade is clear on the chart and it is there to be played. We have economic information that suggests that Vietnam is going to have a good decade.
Based on all our information above and the positivity around the Vietnamese economy, there is ample opportunity over the next few years to establish a good long term allocations in the above indexes or specific stocks in Vietnam. Getting exposure to South East Asia in general is starting to seem like a smart choice. The Vietnam economy, similar to the Philippine economy we covered last week, and the South Korean economy we covered weeks ago, are all signalling that they are likely entering into golden era’s of significant growth.
All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the Vietnamese stock market has performed.
I hope it’s helpful.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 21, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has hit our Mean Support of 1.067, as indicated in the Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of June 14. Currently, the currency is performing a dead cat rebound gig back to the completed Mean Res 1.074 target.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 21, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin hit our Inner Coin Dip of 64500 on the money and dipped to a lower target marked as Inner Coin Dip 63100. We anticipate a robust upward bounce from this point to reach the mean resistance level of 66500.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 14, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz achieved the designated downside target of Mean Support 5325 before ascending to fulfil two significant milestones: the Inner Index Rally 5408 and the subsequent Outer Index Rally 5450. Presently, the index is poised for upward movement, with two distinct targets: the Inner Index Rally 5480 and the subsequent Outer Index Rally 5560. In a downward scenario, it is anticipated that Spooz may test the newly established Mean Support level of 5401, which is expected to catalyze reigniting its bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 14, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has achieved two of our downward trend targets in the current week's trading: Mean Support at 1.075 and 1.067, respectively. The remaining downside targets continue to be valid. The ultimate target for the completed Inner Currency Dip is 1.060 and 1.054; out of most, the completed Outer Currency Dip is 1.045. On the upside, the dead-cat rebound is set to target Mean Resistance at 1.073.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June14, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin consistently reached our defined Mean Support of 67500, as outlined in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of June 7. Additionally, it surpassed this level, touching our Mean Support 65000. Upon completing the Inner Coin Dip 64500 and validating the end of the down movement, we anticipate a renewed Bull Stage trend, initially targeting the designated Mean Resistance.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 7, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, the S&P 500 hit our anticipated resistance level of 5323 and retested the completed Outer Index Rally of 5342. The index is prone to drop to Mean Sup 5325 and possibly to the next level of Mean Sup 5285 before continuing its journey to the next Inner Index Rally 5408.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 7, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, the Eurodollar has completed our Inner Currency Rally of 1.091 and reverted sharply to our designated target of the Mean Sup 1.080. The currency is expected to continue its downward trajectory to Mean Sup 1.075 with a follow-up Dead-Cat rebound to the reverted resistance level of 1.080 (Previous Mean Sup). The ultimate target of the well-established completed Innet Currency Dip 1.060.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 7, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has completed our designated Intermediary Squeeze Rebound 71500 and is on its way to continue the downward movement to a Mean Sup 67500, where we are expecting a Bull Stage movement to take place to retest the Mean Res 71500 and Key Res 73200, respectively.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 31, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the shortened trading week, the S&P 500 hit our expected resistance level of 5323 and promptly fell as part of the renewed upward movement toward the support level of 5257 and the nearby support level of 5221. A solid upward bounce is on its way to target our newly identified key resistance level of 5323 for the upcoming trading week.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 31, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, the Eurodollar bounced off our Mean Res 1.089 and 1.086, respectively, to our Mean Sup 1.081, with a swift and aggressive rebound back to Mean Res 1.086. On the downside, the currency is prone to hitting the Mean Support level of 1.080 once again and targeting a well-established price level of 1.075.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 31, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin gyrated in this week's trading between our major Mean Sup 67100 and the newly created Mean Res 69400. The upward movement target shows a continuous target of Bull Stage Squzee Rebound 73200, marked as Key Res 73200. The main obstacles are Mean Res 69400 and 71500, respectively. On the downside, we look at the established Mean Support at 65000 as a concrete target before a renewed upswing occurs.
DXY - Are You Ready?📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 DXY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in red.
Currently, it is undergoing a correction phase, and approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone highlighted in orange.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange demand and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #DXY is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Buying Silver at 22$ based on H.Marks Cycle theory.Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk).
H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As long as there were hedges and drivers? You cant measure future demand?
Here key words were economic gravity and inflation trend (unknown). Once we saw inflation in mid-January -> we could start placing bets on silver (22$).
//Highest profit comes from buying in advance (combining w/ 200dma cycle?). When something is "risk-free" or certain -> it has 50-50 chance of profit and loss in both directions?; when something is "small risk", certain has small returns.
//this works as long as there is 1:5 potential.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 reached our projected Outer Index Rally at 5342 and then quickly retraced as part of the primary reignited squeeze move path. It is unlikely that it will drop to the primary down target Mean Support at 5221. However, it may continue to advance towards the completed Outer Index Rally at 5342, the Inner Index Rally at 5408, and the next Outer Index Rally at 5450. The secondary reignited squeeze triggering points are at specified destination pinpoints.