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Economycollapse

SPX: Could this occur in our lifetime? The breakout of an era.AI advancement, geopolitical turmoil and power grabs, inflation, structural societal changes. What could possibly be driving us fatefully into this new era. Something in the macro is brewing. Could we really be this close to testing the top of this almost 100 year channel for the S&P 500 (roughly 15% from today) ? Do we break out or fall back down? What happens if we break out? What are your thoughts? Where do you think we go from here?
SP:SPX
by HassiOnTheMoon
4
Unraveling the NYSE Enigma: The Matrix of US EconomyNavigating the Matrix: The US Economy's Fractal Future Unveiled In the intricate dance between mathematical laws, global events, and the echoes of a 15-year financial cycle , the US economy stands at a crossroads. As financial analysts, we often find ourselves immersed in technical tools, resistance zones, and support levels, but perhaps it's time to step back and perceive the larger canvas. Michael Burry's ominous warning about a potential stock market crash has shuffled the cards, prompting us to question not just if, but when. The unfolding narrative forces us to reconsider the true value of a safe-haven asset—Digital Gold, aka Bitcoin. Recent news, including the surge in Bitcoin's value and its best day since August 2023 , as reported by Reuters, signals a seismic shift in the global financial landscape, with giants like BlackRock entering the scene. The emergence of a new world order, led by BRICS , alongside the strengthening of the Euro and the weakening of the USD, mirrors a plot that seems torn from Orwell's playbook. The question has transcended the realm of ETFs; it now echoes in the chambers of the world's financial future. As we step into this unknown terrain, a confluence of factors shapes the economic narrative. Inflation, like a rising tide, threatens to engulf us. Interest rates, akin to a tempest, soar to new heights. The capital congestion in consumer hands, unaccounted for and potent, adds complexity. Blue-chip stocks skillfully sidestep taxes, while government structures weaken. Amidst this symphony of financial discord, the political instability of influential nations like Russia and Israel looms large, their ripples creating a butterfly effect on the American economy. The matrix of economic forces is shifting, and the rules of engagement are evolving. In this amalgamation of financial philosophy and stark reality, we must decipher the patterns, anticipate the shocks, and navigate the unknown. The road ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear—the US economy is on the brink of a profound transformation, and it's time to read between the fractals.
Long
by wikitrades
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
The current context is serious | Forex-Indices-Stocks-Crypto |It seems that inflation is considered the devil for the markets, so the focus will be on the next Fed meeting scheduled for March 22nd. Last week we saw a strong increase in NFP and this could be the first sign of a hawkish FED, but this week we will see the second and final sign for the markets: CPI release. These two drivers will complete the big economic figure ahead of the interest rate announcement. In recent weeks Governor J.P has been under a lot of pressure from the financial community (including Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary and former Fed Governor) due to the large risk of contraction and the impact of such aggressive monetary policy. But perhaps the news about failure of some banks could prove to be a strong ally of Powell. Why am I saying that? If the Fed's target is to drag the US economy into a mild recession to try and get inflation back to around 2 percent, concern that these two failures could be contagious within the banking sector could help Powell achieve the first target: "bring down inflation...". Even the geopolitical context should not be underestimated: The war in Ukraine and China-United States tensions over Taiwan. We will see the impact on the main markets (dollar, SP500, gold...) in the second part of this analysis.
by TheAnonymousBanker
5
Black Swan Event: The Biggest Crypto Market Risk!In today’s article, we will be discussing a risk known as Black Swan Event. Now what is the Black Swan and why it is considered as the most unexpected event in the course of any economic crisis is the greater factor to be discussed. The most unexpected event that has the maximum possibility to occur in the market is called Black Swan, this term was first coined by NYU professor and economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The main attributes that shape the possibilities of Black Swan events: Unpredictability Potential Severities Widespread impact According to Taleb: A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. They are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly. Some believe that diversification may offer some protection when a black swan event does occur. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. Extrapolating, using statistics based on observations of past events is not helpful for predicting black swans, and might even make us more vulnerable to them. The last key aspect of a black swan is that as a historically important event, observers are keen to explain it after the fact and speculate as to how it could have been predicted. Such retrospective speculation, however, does not actually help to predict future black swans as these can be anything from a credit crisis to a war. What is the impact on Institutional markets? We know that somehow, we can use normal factors of prediction and probability over mass numbers of people like the result predicting based on Normal distribution curve, for such things, even the extrapolation method is not working. Hence Black Swan can take the market in any form that is not predefined, that can attack a market with several forms like crashing of prices and regulatory risk of digital exchanges. What are the two different types of Black Swan risk? Black Swan occurs within two types one is the positive impact and another one is a negative impact, now the inability to predict the accurate possibilities is the driving force behind the execution of the Black Swan event. Any clampdown on the trading of cryptocurrencies and other digital money can directly crash the prices of other currencies. The crackdown of Cryptocurrency exchanges by any third parties or other factors can also be counted as the Black Swan effect, many particular exogenous events can be forced to occur like: Inverse Volatility The crackdown of Crypto exchanges Regulatory risk of Crypto exchanges Low liquidity and low trading volume Having said that, 2022 has been the year of the “Black Swan” throughout the world of cryptocurrency. From the fall of LUNA to the insolvency of 3AC, Celsius, FTX and now BlockFi, the market has taken major hits in value and credibility. Each one of these events seemingly was viewed as a once in a lifetime event. To sum up, the Black Swan event is described in the following summarized manner: This event is so rare that it has many unknown possibilities occurring suddenly. Also, the impact is so huge that it can have a catastrophic effect. The hindsight conclusion if the prediction comes as true. Conclusion At last, one could conclude that many events could turn into a Black Swan in crypto trading such as, Network Congestion where everyone is rushing to have Ethereum and it subsequently raises the price of gas. In this case, when Black Swan occurs, the problem increases tenfold times and also this affects the liquidation process and also low-value transfers can simply attack the blockchain system. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
23
Economic Outlook for 10-15 years aheadMy Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead The rare double-dip recession October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be expected in disinflationary period is stock market drawdown will continue, rising unemployment, more business entities will collapse, fewer job openings, in short 2023 will be dark especially in the US. Technically it is a recession. The good news is inflation can be pushed back to 2% area and from there QE can be restarted. Most people that already tired by long economic drawdown are strongly craving for bull market. Productivity will rise again along with its economic and secondary leverage and a creeping up inflation leaving the 2% area. An inherent nature of capitalism. The question is what will be the destiny of Petrodollar as its losing control over the total international trade volume. The rapid change of global power dynamics which spearheaded by BRICS+ economy has substantially diminish the Dollar hegemony. The regional powers that have control over the world commodities are grouping up to create a new, commodity-backed currency. In addition to that there is a strongly rising tension between Russia and NATO. More than 50 years ago, the US left the Bretton-Woods System and to keep the US dollar relevant as global reserve currency, Petrodollar was introduced and rapidly embraced by the OPEC which consequently making the US Dollar became the world's most traded currency. That is the underlying value of the Dollar besides of debt. But the current astronomical $30+ Trillion of government debt and the weakening of Petrodollar globally has come to a critical question of what will be the next US decisive move? Chaos has to be applied first to disrupt any potential challenger to the US Dollar, and from there a revolutionary economic policy has to be implemented. Worst case scenario is the new Great Depression can manifest after almost 100 years since its first occurrence in 1929. Note: This economic outlook which also the same with any version of economic outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This post is mean for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPX
by derahmanov
FEDS MEETING WONT BE PRETTYThe big day , the big event tomorrow November 2nd the moment of the day we all been expecting and waiting for. Turns out they want to blow up the economy in order to take the inflation under control, even so they set to send another 75 basis point … this is the 4TH TIME OF THE MEETING !!!! This percentage total of 5 percent of hiking aggressive.. This trigger a global recession in 2023. USA depressions of finance is coming in 2023, and the Feds WONT STOP raising rates not sooner as you think. We will face and see worse than the Great Depression. Same as for nas from US30 Should expect even lower than where we were before ..
U
by JoyBoyVegae
2