Lessons from an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market
Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders.
So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit.
They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex.
If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame.
It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?"
Lesson 5 Define your edge
An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness.
Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability.
Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business.
Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing.
Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending.
If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
EDGE
Trading PsychologyMany traders seek consistency through the idea of mastering the markets. They consider them to be logical and therefore can be figured out. They believe with more knowledge of markets and how they operate, they will eventually make a consistent return. And so they continue searching in the markets for a reliable edge, or outside the market for a leader or guru to show them the way. They see their emotions as an enemy; something standing in their way of success, and so attempt to remove them completely; which is impossible. This idea, that the answer is out there somewhere, is a false belief. Most traders never stop to think that perhaps what they are seeking is already within themselves, right here. That all they actually need is to stop searching, and look within.
In order to succeed long term you must first understand your self and the relationship between yourself and the market. Your emotions, thoughts, and perception of the market, and how these relate to actions taken in the market place. If you do not believe these are directly connected with your actions and therefore performance, you will likely struggle to maintain a consistent performance. Rather than viewing your emotions as an enemy, learn to use them to your advantage. Learn to understand the circle or cycle between you and the market.
KEYBTC - LONG - Possible Edge to Edge tradeWe are looking at KEY, with a nice consolidation above the Tenkan in the 12H chart, it looks like its setting itself up for an Edge to Edge trade. This position may last about 2 - 3 weeks for the whole thing to play out, but we will be setting some short term targets, and after that we can just adjust the stop-loss and let the rest of the position ride.
Entries: 0.00000090 - 0.00000094
Target 1: 0.000000103
Target 2: 0.000000115
Stop Loss: 0.00000086
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NZD/JPY LongSee trade above for a reversal strategy on the selected pair
We are over extended to the downside approaching a key long term supportive price of 72.500
We have deceleration at this point and a doji formed on the daily chart
Entry Triggered @ 73.250
SL : 72.250 (100 Points)
TP : 75.000 (175 Points)
Please remember to only risk 1% of your trading capital per trade, this strategy has a 68% strike rate which we allow to play out over time, so again please do NOT risk more that 1% of your portfolio per trade.
We also have so added confluence of the key fib line matching up at the 72.600 rejoin to give extra support.
Good Luck Traders.
I will update as we go...
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution
Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset."
Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown."
It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit.
Employing your Edge
So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge.
1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices.
2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade.
3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak.
Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey
-Josh Ridenour
Accumulating Altcoins Part V: Siacoin (SC/BTC)Soon we will see this baby close in the cloud. TK cross about to happen, but most likely in the cloud which is a neutral sign.
BUT..... Edge to edge trade opportunity. Flat Kumo at the top, thick cloud. Once prices closes within the cloud there is a great chance that price will go straight to 350 sats (that's your target folks).
STOP LOSS: 208 sats (Kijun Sen)
Accumulating Altcoins Part VI: Factom (FCT/BTC) - Edge to edgeWeak bullish TK cross, Close in the cloud. Target is the flat kumo line. 0.0051 BTC.
100% profit guaranteed.
EDG-BTCwe can expect a good profit in EDG_BTC
news
31 March 2018 (or earlier)
Edgeless (EDG)
EDG 0.3 Version Launch
target in chart
XMRBTC - Short Position - Movement in Cloud #XMR #BTC #IchimokuShort entered after XMRBTC closed in the cloud on 3/15. Looking to exit position at the other side of the cloud.
Stop Loss, entry and exit should be displayed here (offset to right for visibility).
#Ichimoku
#Edge to Edge
#XMR
#BTC
Bullish edge-to-edge cloud setup on the dailyThere's a bullish edge-to-edge cloud trade setup on the daily chart. The other side of the cloud is also the 50% fib retracement of the last major move down between mid December to the beginning of February.
It could also just go the other way ¯\_( $ )_/¯.
EDG - Edgeless ready for some movesEDG in the next few days will be interesting. Bunch of news incoming :
1. Stoch RSI seems to just be heading into oversold which will make us see some uptrend in the coming few hour to form the cup
2. Ichi cloud resistance right where the bigger cup forms and MACD about to cross showing downtrend for possible for formation of handle
3. Ichi cloud acting as support which will start the final confirmation of the shape
Buy a small-medium bag at around 15k-16k sats
Buy a bigger bag at full shape confirmation at around 22.5K - 23k sats
This is once of my first T.A please provide me feedback. Will be much appreciated :)
BTCUSD nothing exeptionalhello
In the comment of the previous idea i wrote, that i`d like to see the third wave of divergence. Here it is. But i dont think that`s this is my awesome analysis, this was just possible and quite logical, considering the resistance to fall and some consolidation after two strong div waves. In addition to the outcome of this situation we can see the following: 1. Break through and 6700 ( 1.414 fibo from previous idea) 2. Bounce from resistance, divergence and correction to the channel support line at least.
Good mood everyone
EDG/BTC new trendEDG is showing signs of wanting to get out present trend, if it crosses the dark red resistance line, it could go up to the new zone at 0.00019, otherwise it will go sideways in the near future.
Edgeless(EDG)/BTC.Edg brokeout ressistance and growed up
now price corrected to Support and ready to next rise impulse
EDG (Edgeless) - Launching soonSo EDG is an interesting token working off of the Ethereum network which offers an edgeless online casino. They claim that they are waiting to launch properly due to them finalizing their Vegas casino license, which could come as soon as the next 1-2 months. If they manage to get that, they say that they will be able to work with fiat currencies which would be a major advantage to crypto only. Gambling is a monstrous business, as we all know, and if they can crack a small fraction of it, they will be doing quite well. Check their site for how they claim to provide a more 'fair' gambling environment: edgeless.io I'm impressed by the fact that they suffered a massive loss in funds not long ago, due to parity wallet hack, and have still managed to progress without any major disruptions. From what I recall, their launch was always supposed to be Q3 / Q4 this year and they are still on track to meet deadline.
This chart is a slightly longer term view (1-2 months), expecting big moves once news hits and they are live. From a technical perspective, I'm trying out some new tools here to see if I can project targets. Trend line from the tops to project future resistance areas once new ATH is made. Fib trend extension on the entire move up and down. and then guessing on where some bounce backs might occur based off of current resistance areas and the fib extension. The target I've chosen is more or less where the fib extension of 1.618 is. If anyone has suggestions on how to better project potential tops, please let me know.
Price is low now, so with the potential upside, I have picked up a nice stack.
*** AUDJPY Short Limit Order = 1:9 Risk Reward ***Structure breakouts indicate an imbalance and as traders we need to understand the equilibrium of the supply and demand of currencies.
Breakouts are high probability and are a great way to profit if managed with an edge.
SHORT BIAS = FX_IDC:AUDJPY
"Successful Trading Is 20% Skill and 80% Mindset"
Rodz