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Edibleoil

A technical overview of Soybean Oil Since our last analysis of Soybean Oil, the commodity has completed its head and shoulders pattern, now trading at the resistance formed by the previous neckline. Concurrently, we observe an RSI divergence, where the RSI prints lower highs while the prices chart higher highs. This divergence is generally viewed as a bearish indicator, hinting at possible price declines. When paired with decreasing volume, the case for price exhaustion at this juncture becomes more compelling. The Price & Volume Profile chart serves as another essential tool in pinpointing critical zones. The highlighted POC (‘point of control’) zone represents the price level with the highest frequency of trades. Historically, this has acted as a pivotal support and resistance level for Soybean Oil, demarcating regions of consolidation before prices venture either upwards or downwards. The chart also highlights the volume traded at the different levels as denoted by the volume number at the different price levels. Notably, the current price level showcases a significant volume zone, with the largest volume transacted there. Looking at the 50 & 200-day moving averages we observe a golden cross which signifies bullishness. But not on the 100 & 200-day moving averages. On a relative value basis, we can also compare Soybean Oil to its substitute, such as crude palm oil. Here we see 2 defined regimes pre-2021 and post-2021 where the ratio of the two products significantly increased, suggesting that Soybean Oil became relatively pricier than Crude Palm Oil. We have previously delved into this topic in our article “ Fading the Soybean Oil Premium ” where we anticipated a decline in this ratio. Subsequently, this ratio did correct to the 0.06 mark, only to experience a rapid rebound. This surge was attributed to Soybean Oil appreciating at a faster rate than Crude Palm Oil. Another metric involves contrasting Soybean Oil with its upstream and downstream derivatives: Soybean and Soybean Meal. Once more, we see prices tending to move in tandem until 2021, after which the ratio of Soybean Oil to both Soybean Meal and Soybean underwent a marked shift. With the ratio's support distinctly outlined by pre-2021 resistance, this ratio can be wielded as a metric to identify when Soybean Oil is relatively overpriced compared to its up and downstream products. In conclusion, a blend of technical indicators seems to point towards more downside for Soybean Oil, such as the RSI divergence and declining volume. Also, prices stuck in the POC have generally preceded breakouts and on a relative value basis, Soybean Oil seems over-extended. We can express this bearish view on soybean oil via a short position on the CME soybean Oil futures at the current level of 63.29, with a stop at 67.50 and take profit at 51.00. Prices are quoted in cents per pound and each $0.0001 increment per pound in the Soybean Oil futures contract is equal to 6.00$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by inspirante
Fading the Soybean Oil premium.Jumping straight into the technicals, we see a head and shoulder pattern on the daily Soybean Oil chart. With the neckline now broken, it seems a bearish set-up might be possible. While the technicals are important, understanding where the current price level of soybean oil is in context to other products could help us build further conviction on this idea. Firstly, the Soybean crush components. Currently, Soybean Oil trades at a pretty large premium against Soybean and Soybean Meal. Looking at the price ratios of Soybean Oil/Soybean & Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal, we also see that both have been trading out of the ‘normal’ range since 2021. With both ratios now trending lower and knocking on the door of the normal range again, we will watch closely to see what happens as we approach this critical juncture. Secondly, Soybean Oil vs its substitute, Crude Palm Oil. Again, we see Soybean Oil as the outlier here, as prices diverge from Crude Palm Oil, with Soybean Oil trading higher. Looking at the bottom chart, we can clearly see the Soybean Oil/Crude Palm Oil ratio deviating from the average range established in 2018 – 2021. With this ratio recently trending lower, a break below the upper level of the range established (dotted line) could accelerate the closing of this premium, as seen in the 2021 to 2022 period, where the ratio collapsed swiftly. The technically bearish setup, coupled with Soybean Oil’s relative valuation against the soybean complex and Crude Palm Oil on fundamental standpoint, makes a decent case to short Soybean Oil Futures from here. To express this view, we can consider setting up the trade in a few ways: 1) An outright short on Soybean Oil using the CME Soybean Oil Futures, at the current level of 60.05, setting our stop at 67 and taking profit at 42, with each 1-point move in the Soybean Oil Futures contract equal to 600 USD. 2) A spread trade between Soybean Oil & Crude Palm Oil, by taking a short position in the CME Soybean Oil Futures contract and a long position in the CME Crude Palm Oil futures contract. Such a setup could potentially allow you to stay profitable even if you turn out to be ‘wrong’ in your market views if it eventually proves that crude palm oil has been underpriced and the soybean premium is closed by crude palm oil rallying. For this trade, it is trickier to set up due to the contract size and tick value difference. Interested readers can check out one of our previous ideas where we have covered this trade in further detail: The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by inspirante
15
Crude Palm Oil’s underperformanceThis chart caught our attention recently. The Crude Palm Oil – Soybean Oil Spread (in USD per Metric Ton) is trading close to an all-time high now. This spells trading opportunity for us as Palm Oil and Soybean Oil are generally considered substitute products, which means, at a large enough price difference, buyers may hop over to buy the cheaper one. Eventually closing the price gap back to its historical mean. Further comparison of Palm Oil against its other substitute, the European Low Sulphur Gasoil Financial Futures, also shows the spread between these products near the high. A price comparison among the 3 products, Palm Oil, European low Sulphur Gasoil and Soybean Oil underscores this price disparity even clearer. The prices of the 3 products have generally trended together, up until July 2022 when Palm Oil started to underperform. Stepping back into the macro side, some potential tailwinds for Crude Palm Oil include; 1) The reopening of China, which would increase the demand for palm oil from the world’s 2nd largest importer of the product. 2) Biofuel Mandates, which would put higher demand pressure on Palm Oil. 3) Slowing production growth in palm oil could lead to supply-demand imbalances, pushing palm oil higher as supply falters. One way to trade this price divergence would be to short the Soybean Oil – Palm Oil spread. This trade can be set up by selling 1 Soybean Oil Futures and buying 1 USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures. However, do note that in such a set-up, the position is not fully ‘hedged’ as the contract units are different, 1 Soybean Oil Futures has a contract unit of 60,000 Pounds (~27.21 metric tons) while 1 Crude Palm Oil Futures is for 25 metric tons. Another option would be to trade the exchange listed Crude Palm Oil – European Low Sulphur Gasoil Spread (POG) which handles the construction of the spread and is financially settled, removing delivery risk. While it’s hard to ‘call’ the top, such price divergence provides interesting opportunities that we leverage if risk is managed properly. These trade set-ups allow us to express the view that Palm Oil’s underperformance will be closed, either by Palm oil catching up with its substitutes or if its substitutes fall in prices. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Sources www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com jakartaglobe.id oec.world
CME:CPO1!Short
by inspirante
Dining out soon?China, one of the largest consumer of soybean oil, has tapered its demand for the edible oil due to COVID-related control measures over the past few months. With new cases falling and lockdown for Shanghai expected to be lifted soon, we see positive demand drivers on the horizon for soybean oil. Restaurants are among the largest consumers of the oil. As consumers resume their normal consumption patterns and dining out becomes the norm again, it’s easy to see the impact on demand. Looking at the charts, we see a falling wedge pattern since April (where prices make lower highs and lower lows) which generally indicates an upside breakout could be near. On a longer timeframe, we are close to the 6-month uptrend line, where prices have bounced off in the past. Additionally the $78 resistance level provides us with further confidence that prices are likely to remain supported at the current levels before making a jump higher. As demand from the world’s largest consumer of soybean oil revives and technical levels remain intact, we expect more upside from here! Staggered entry at 79.25 and 78.25 with stops below 77.25 and targets at 84 and 87.60. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by inspirante
1