How "Whales" Manipulate Markets: A Trader's Guide to SucceedEvery chart tells a story of institutional footprints. For most, it's chaotic noise. But when you understand the market's true engine — the constant need of "Smart Money" to capture vast amounts of liquidity to fill their orders — that noise turns into a clear map.
This guide will teach you to read that map. We will break down the main types of manipulation and show you how to use them to identify high-probability zones for potential entries.
So, why exactly is liquidity the fuel for these "Smart Money" players, which for simplicity, we'll call "Whales"? It's because a Whale holds the largest volume of funds in a specific asset and, unlike retail traders like us, it cannot open its huge position at any given moment simply because there aren't enough buy or sell offers on the market.
To fill its orders, the Whale constantly carries out manipulations to capture additional liquidity. This isn't about deception or anything negative—it's how the market constantly forms its movements, how whales achieve their goals by moving from one liquidity pool to another, much like whales in the ocean hunt for plankton to get vital energy for long journeys from one feeding ground to another.
Why will these principles of price movement through manipulation, which worked decades ago, continue to work forever? Because human nature doesn't change over time. The crowd is always driven by greed and fear, making it easy to manipulate. Therefore, manipulation is often the motive for the birth of a future move and is a key element in market mechanics. If you understand these mechanics, you will be able to see the footprints of whales on any chart and not only minimize your chances of becoming their food but also join their next move to get your share of the profit in the boundless ocean of market opportunities.
Let's take a closer look at how whales carry out their manipulations and classify their types.
The Whale is constantly in hedged positions. To fill its large-sum orders without impacting the price, it uses the principles of Sell to Buy (STB) and Buy to Sell (BTS) .
The STB manipulation is used to accumulate long positions. To do this, the Whale opens an opposing short position, activating stop orders and liquidations of buyers, purchasing their positions at a favorable price. It also encourages other retail participants, especially breakout traders, to open short positions. Continuing to accumulate long positions, the Whale sharply moves the price up, liquidating short participants and absorbing their positions. After the price has moved up, the Whale is left with an open losing position from its short manipulation. To close it at breakeven or a small loss, the Whale needs to return the price back to the zone of its manipulation. This return is called mitigation .
In the opposite case, when the Whale needs to drive an asset's price down, it uses the BTS manipulation . To fill its short positions, the Whale opens a long position, activating stop-losses and forced liquidations of sellers, and encouraging retail breakout traders to also open long positions. Continuing to accumulate short positions, the Whale aggressively moves the price down, absorbing and liquidating the positions of impatient longs. After the downward impulse is complete, the Whale is left with an open losing long position. Just as in the first case, to close it at zero or a small loss, the Whale needs to return the price to the manipulation zone, after which another markdown of the asset occurs, and the cycle can be repeated as many times as necessary.
Thus, through manipulation, the Whale achieves two goals at once:
It gets the most favorable price.
It eliminates most of its competitors by liquidating their positions with an opposing move.
Most of the time, the price movement between manipulations is unpredictable. Entering during this movement, for example, in the middle or end of an impulse or within a range, increases the chances that you will become a victim of the next manipulation and liquidity for the Whale. However, if you wait for the price to arrive at the manipulation zone, also known as a Point of Interest (POI) , and ensure that the Whale acknowledges this area (i.e., it has stopped there and is beginning a reversal), the probability of choosing the correct direction for a trade will be on your side.
To help you recognize manipulation zones, let's look at their different types.
🔹 Order Block (OB) - A down candle (sometimes 2, rarely 3 candles) before an impulsive move up (in the case of a bullish OB), or an up candle (sometimes 2, rarely 3 candles) before an impulsive move down (in the case of a bearish OB). In most cases, this short, sharp move should sweep some form of significant liquidity. An additional confirmation of an Order Block is the immediate imbalance or Fair Value Gap (FVG) that follows it, because the Whale's intensive position accumulation and the associated impulse move don't allow enough time for all market participants' orders to be filled.
🔹 Demand/Supply Zones are similar in principle to Order Blocks but differ in that they have a more prolonged action, which can consist of many up or down candles, making these zones often significantly wider than OBs.
Demand Zone - The last downward move before an intensive rally.
Supply Zone - The last upward move before an intensive drop.
Often, an Order Block can be found inside a Demand/Supply zone.
🔹 Range - Also a manipulation zone and essentially an Order Block, but unlike an OB, this manipulation can last for a very long time when the Whale lacks sufficient liquidity from a quick manipulation and accumulates its large position by collecting internal and external liquidity through the range. Ranges, just like Order Blocks and Demand/Supply zones, are points of interest for the Whale to close its losing hedged positions and continue moving towards its goals.
Conditions for Applying and Validity of Manipulation Zones
An important condition for applying manipulation zones is that they can only be used once . That is, if the price has come to a zone and reacted to it, upon a second arrival, that zone is no longer valid. For convenience in marking used zones, I shorten them to the point of the first touch so as not to consider them anymore, but to understand which way the order flow is directed—a very important concept that, unlike structure, shows the true direction of the Whale's movement. Order flow is manifested by the price reacting to manipulation zones from below in an uptrend and from above in a downtrend.
It is also very important to understand that it makes sense to identify and use manipulation zones as one of a trade's entry conditions only from below for an uptrend and from above for a downtrend . Any counter-trend zones formed in the path of a trend are highly likely to be broken and serve as liquidity.
In ranges, manipulations formed after deviations can be used for entries from both sides.
Only manipulations that were formed at the beginning of an impulsive price move can be considered valid for entry. That is, they must be the manipulations that directly triggered the start of the move; in Smart Money terminology, they are often called the "origin" . Any manipulation in the middle or end of a move will most likely serve as liquidity on the way back to mitigate the origin zone.
How long does a manipulation zone remain relevant? It remains relevant until a new structural element (a higher high or a lower low) is formed , especially if the price has already come close to the manipulation zone, for example, into the FVG before the zone. This most likely means the Whale has already finished its business there and closed one of its losing hedged positions at a small loss. When the trend changes, such a zone will act as liquidity, not a POI. So, a manipulation zone will not always be mitigated; often, a reversal occurs from the FVG before it. However, entering from an FVG is much less reliable than from an Order Block, Demand/Supply zone, or Range. I personally skip such entries and wait for a new manipulation zone to form and be mitigated; they happen on the market constantly.
A good bonus that further strengthens the probability of a setup working out during the mitigation of manipulation zones is a liquidity sweep upon reaching them.
Consider the context and supplementary conditions. Although manipulation zones are the strongest areas for price reversals, they should always be used in conjunction with other supplementary conditions and tools, for example, with Fibonacci retracement levels or liquidity sweeps. "Context" implies any other conditions that can either confirm or contradict the likely direction of price movement. For example: in which phase of correction is the price? For a long, safe entries can only be considered from the discount zone (below the 50% Fib level); for shorts, only from the premium zone (above the 50% Fib level). Is there significant, un-swept liquidity nearby, such as previous daily, weekly, or monthly highs/lows, or an untouched Asian session high/low? What upcoming news could affect the asset and hit the stop before the setup plays out? At what time of day did the price mitigate the manipulation? Taking context into account is a crucial and integral part of analysis in the search for entry points.
Due to the fractal nature of market charts, manipulations can be seen on any timeframe. On weekly and daily timeframes, manipulation zones can be used for swing trading or investment purchases. 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes will show potential entries from manipulations for intraday trading or holding positions for several days. 5-minute and 1-minute timeframes will show manipulations in the form of order flow for final entry confirmation.
Whatever type of analysis you use for your trading, understanding the nature of market manipulations and practicing their recognition will allow you to be one step ahead of most market participants and open your trades with an understanding of which way institutional capital is most likely to move next.
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Full Breakdown of My Trading Strategy Dow Futures DaytradingI will be detailing my strategy to both help others and to help myself fine tune my strategy.
My strategy is one of market maker cycles. The end goal: to trade off of the Daily chart by drilling down to the 15 minutes for entries. Everything revolves around the Daily chart. The only indicator I use is ATR, other than that, pure price action. I use opening prices a lot in my trading.
Starting with the MONTHLY chart:
Every month has the following-
An opening price
A first trading day
A last trading day
These are things that ALL traders see and can't misinterpret.
I will use June as the basis for my examples.
I try to figure out what kind of monthly candle is likely to form. Bullish, Bearish or Doji. I use ATR to try to figure out the likely size also. For Dow Futures, a typical Monthly candle is around 3000 ticks +/-
Going to the Daily chart, I mark the beginning of the month and the end of the month.
The meat of the strategy, and the one quite frankly is the most difficult and the most discretionary, is reading price action on the Daily chart to determine what the next daily candle is likely to do and where it opens at. No strategy is 100% accurate and I do take losses from being wrong. With proper risk management ( I will detail my personal risk management later ) you can still make tons of money being 50% right.
Not everyday is meant to be traded and quite frankly, most days are pure trash. Over 55% of all Daily candles are small, resting Doji days. You are looking for the expansion daily candles.
Starting with the first trading of June:
1. May 29th, Large Doji day and and formed a mother bar
2. May 30th, another doji day and still inside the previous bar
3. June 2nd, opened up in middle of inside bar, Bias for day is Long. Buy near the bottom of the inside bar and a break of Yesterday's Low.
This is an actual trade I took. Once I saw the Doji candle on the 15 minute break below yesterday's low I entered in Long. I will go over stops and targets later. For now, I am explaining how I find my bias and locations.
The next day: start the process over again. Look at the Daily and the context of the bars. Look for swing points, Daily highs and lows. Key Daily bars as signals. I usually like to do this 5 minutes after Asia opens just to see where price opens at. I then mark the daily open with a cyan blue line. If I am Long bias then I want to buy under the open at key levels. I use SP as swing point, a daily high or low that has not been broken yet.
Tuesday, I would have a Long bias again. Because we opened still inside of the mother bar and I see highs not broken, I want to trade in that direction. What is a key level on this Tuesday? I see the monthly open right underneath. The big question I would ask myself on this Tuesday is where in that move can I get in on a pullback for the Long trade?
The market gives you an entry here.
I did not take that trade, I WILL show you the trade I did take on this day. After NY opened, I saw the spike into the monthly open and a doji right ON the open. I slammed Long. Especially, the three swing points to be used as the direction.
Now on to trade management. Stops, Targets. I have the same bracket for every trade, so the only variable is my entry. Once I enter, I set my ATM strategy.
I use the 15 minute ATR to determine my stop loss. This part is also up to the individual trader and is discretionary. I will show you MY strategy.
Take a zoomed-out view of the 15-minute chart with the 14 period ATR, mark the clusters of the peak ATR readings from NY sessions. In this case it is between 70-90. I tend to go towards the upper limit, this case 90. I then use 1.25-1.5 times of this reading based on my account and position sizing. In June AND in July, I am using 120 tick stops.
My targets are all strictly 2.5 risk to reward of what my stop is plus or minus a few ticks for commissions. Since I am using 120 tick stops, my targets are therefore, 300-310 ticks. Going back to my Tuesday trade, the trade management would be a set 2.5R all or nothing. Enter the trade and walk away. Go read a book or play PS5. Go to gym. It will either hit stop, target or close out at 4pm NY close.
2 Winning trades wipes away 5 losers. I have losers all the time with a 50% win rate. I can expect 8 losing trades in a row at any given time. Something I have experienced multiple times.
Now on to my money management strategy. The holy grail of this entire system. Quite frankly, how you enter and your strategy at the end of the day doesn't amount to much. How you manage your money is where professionalism is achieved.
Take your starting account balance, divide it in fours. I will use a 10,000 account as simple math.
10,000
2500 Level 1 14.5R
2500 Level 2 11.5R
2500 Level 3 9.5R
2500 Level 4 8.5R
I risk 1.75% per trade and each level will stay fixed until the next level is reached. In this example, Level 1 will be using $175 risk per trade and a 2.5 risk to reward, $440 reward. You will keep risking $175 per trade until you hit your $2500 profit goal to advance to Level 2. In this case this will take you 14.5R
Now you are on Level 2, you find your new account balance is now $12,500. Find 1.75% of this = $220. Keep using $220 risk until you hit another $2500 in profits. This will take you 11.5R.
Keep repeating these steps until you have hit all 4 profit levels and your account has doubled. Your new account balance is now $20,000. You will start this process over again. To double your account you will need a total of 44-45R. At a conservative approach of 5-7% monthly gain, you can expect to double your account in 8 months +/- depending on how good you can get.
The number one major key to ALL OF THIS IS
One trade per Daily candle. You lose on that day, move on and come again tomorrow
All profit targets need to be hit or close out at 4pm depending on price
NSDQ100 Bullish breakout retest?Donald Trump escalated trade tensions again, threatening a 35% tariff on Canadian goods shortly after reopening trade talks, and floated doubling global tariffs to 20%. This reinforces his aggressive protectionist stance and puts renewed pressure on allies like Canada and Vietnam, the latter blindsided by a 20% levy. Meanwhile, US-China relations may be entering a critical phase, with a possible Trump-Xi summit hinted at by Marco Rubio during talks in Malaysia.
On the geopolitical front, Trump is signaling a harder line on Russia, previewing a “major statement” and backing expanded sanctions as the US sends more weapons to Ukraine. This raises global uncertainty, especially for energy and defense sectors.
Conclusion for NSDQ100 trading:
Rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks may dampen market sentiment and lead to volatility in tech-heavy Nasdaq stocks, particularly those reliant on global supply chains. While traders have grown numb to tariff talk, the cumulative pressure suggests a downside risk is building. In the short term, maintain a cautious stance—watch for potential pullbacks and heightened intraday volatility as policy clarity remains elusive.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22940
Resistance Level 2: 23060
Resistance Level 3: 23180
Support Level 1: 22410
Support Level 2: 22300
Support Level 3: 22130
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Not All Pin Bars Are Created EqualA Two-Step Filter to Find the Ones That Actually Matter
We’ve all seen them. Long wicks, tight bodies, price rejecting a level. The classic pin bar. Textbook stuff, right?
But here’s the problem. Pin bars show up all over the chart. Some lead to clean reversals. Most do absolutely nothing. The trick isn’t spotting them. It’s knowing which ones to trust.
This is where a simple two-step filter can help. By asking two key questions, you immediately improve the quality of your trades and cut down on the false positives.
Step One: Where Did It Happen?
Before you look at shape or size, ask yourself one thing.
Did this pin bar form at a meaningful level?
Context is everything. A pin bar that forms into thin air, mid-range or in the middle of chop might look good, but it’s rarely reliable. What you’re looking for is reaction from structure. That could mean:
• A clean horizontal support or resistance level
• A prior swing high or low
• A daily VWAP or anchored VWAP from a key event
• The edge of a range or value area
• A trendline tested multiple times
In short, the level gives the pin bar a reason to exist. It becomes a reaction, not a random candle.
Mark the level before the candle forms. This stops you from retrofitting significance where there isn’t any.
Example:
Here we can see how the volume weighted average price (VWAP) can add meaningful context to a pin-bar setup. In this case, USD/CAD retraced against the prevailing downtrend and tested the VWAP anchored to the recent swing highs. At that point, price formed a clear pin-bar reversal, signalling rejection and potential continuation with the broader trend.
USD/CAD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Step Two: What’s Happening Under the Hood?
Once you’ve got a pin bar at a meaningful level, it’s time to look deeper. One of the best ways to do that is by dropping down to a lower timeframe, like the 5-minute chart, and replaying the session that created the candle.
Why?
Because daily candles can hide a lot. A clean pin bar might look like a strong rejection, but on the intraday chart, it might just be a low-volume fakeout or one impulsive move during quiet hours. On the other hand, a pin bar backed by real market structure is far more likely to hold.
Here’s what to look for on the lower timeframe:
• Was there a liquidity grab or stop run into the level?
• Did price pause, base or reverse with intent?
• Were there multiple attempts to push beyond the level that failed?
• Did volume spike during the rejection?
When a pin bar reflects a genuine intraday battle, not just a random wick, it often tells you more about the intentions of real participants.
Example:
In this example, GBP/USD forms a bearish pin-bar at a key area of swing resistance on the daily chart. Dropping down to the 5-minute timeframe helps reveal what actually happened inside that candle.
On this lower timeframe we can see that price initially pushed above resistance but failed to hold, triggering a steady wave of intraday selling pressure. This move was followed by a mild pullback during the latter half of the US session and into the New York close, reinforcing the idea of rejection and offering insight into the mechanics behind the pin-bar.
GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
GBP/USD 5min Candle Chart: How the Daily Pin-bar Formed
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Bonus Filter: What’s the Trend Context?
You could also add a third layer if you want to refine even further. Is the pin bar counter-trend, or is it a pullback within trend?
Counter-trend pin bars at key levels can work, but they’re lower probability and often take more time to play out. Pin bars that form as part of a pullback to structure in the direction of the prevailing trend tend to move more cleanly.
This is where using something like a 20 EMA or anchored VWAP can help frame the setup.
Putting It All Together
Next time you see a pin bar, pause. Don’t rush in. Ask yourself:
• Did this happen at a level that matters?
• Does the intraday story back up the candle?
If the answer is yes to both, now you’ve got something worth trading. Not just another wick in the wind.
Pin bars can be strong signals, but only when they reflect real intent. This two-step filter helps you cut through the clutter and focus on the ones that do.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Airbnb: Downtrend Set to Resume SoonSince our last update, Airbnb has experienced a rebound, which diverted the stock from the anticipated sell-off. However, the price is expected to soon resume its downward trajectory and, as the next key step, break through support at $108.60. This move should complete turquoise wave 3, with all subsequent waves of this downward impulse likely to unfold below this level. Ultimately, the stock is expected to finish the broader correction of the beige wave II.
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A bit of profit taking on NVDA and then up again?NASDAQ:NVDA is the most talked about and everyone is capitalizing on that. Let's take a look.
NASDAQ:NVDA
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Breakout vs Fakeout: How to Spot the DifferenceHello, Traders! 🖖🏻
There’s probably no phrase that triggers more mixed emotions in crypto trading than: “Looks like we’re breaking out!”. Because let’s be honest…For every clean breakout that follows through with momentum…
…there’s a fakeout waiting to trap overconfident entries.
So, how do you tell the difference? Let’s break it down!
🧱 What Is a Breakout?
A breakout occurs when the price moves decisively beyond a key level, such as support, resistance, a trendline, or a range boundary, and holds.
What makes it a REAL breakout?
Volume Expansion: More participants step in as the price moves through the level.
Strong Candle Closes: Especially on higher timeframes like 4H or 1D.
Follow-Through: The market doesn’t just poke above the level. It builds on it.
No Immediate Rejection: You don’t see a sharp wick straight back below.
Example from BTC (2021):
Look back at January to February 2021. BTC had been stuck under the $42K–$43K resistance for weeks. Every push got sold off, until it didn’t.
When the breakout finally came, it was clean. The massive daily candle closed right through the level. Volume exploded. And there wasn’t even a polite little retest, price just launched straight toward $58K, leaving anyone waiting for a pullback completely behind.
Pure trend breakout energy. Everything lined up: the context, the volume, the structure — textbook 🤌🏻
🪤 What Is a Fakeout?
A fakeout, on the other hand, looks like a breakout… until it isn’t. The price briefly moves beyond a key level, but then snaps back inside the range, often trapping late buyers (or sellers) and triggering stop-losses.
Common Signs of a FAKEOUT:
Low or Declining Volume (at the breakout moment).
Quick Rejection with a Long Wick (especially on intraday charts).
Failure to Hold Above the Level on Retest.
Divergence Between Timeframes: For example, a 15M breakout that looks strong while the 4H still shows consolidation.
Classic BTC example:
This one was sneaky! After BTC hit its all-time high around $65K, the market started looking shaky. Price tried to recover by pushing back into the $58K–$60K zone, a pretty critical level at the time. It looked like a breakout attempt… but something was off. No real volume. No strong candle closes. And then, BOOM, hard rejection. The price popped just enough above resistance to lure in breakout traders (and probably clear out some stop-losses)… then completely reversed. And not just a minor pullback, this fakeout basically triggered the entire leg down toward $30K. Classic liquidity grab. The kind of move that looks like strength for a second… until it absolutely isn’t.
🕵️♂️ Key Differences: Breakout vs Fakeout (Checklist)
🧠 What Causes Fakeouts in Crypto?
Honestly, fakeouts aren’t some kind of accident. They’re almost baked into how crypto markets work.
Part of it comes down to simple liquidity hunting. The market knows exactly where traders tend to place their stop losses, right above resistance or just below support. Price often spikes into those zones, triggers stops, fills larger orders for bigger players… and then reverses completely.
Another reason? A lack of real conviction. Sometimes, it’s mostly retail traders chasing a move. Price pokes above a key level, but there just isn’t enough momentum to sustain it. Without bigger buyers or sellers stepping in, the move collapses right back.
And let’s be honest. When everyone on Crypto Twitter is watching the exact same level, fakeouts become almost inevitable. The more obvious the setup, the more likely it gets front-run, faded, or manipulated.
Plus, a huge mistake? People ignore the higher timeframe context. A breakout on the 15-minute chart might feel exciting… but if the 1D or 4H is still clearly in a downtrend, that breakout is fighting against the bigger picture. No surprise it fails. Fakeouts happen because the market’s job is to make most people wrong, at least for a moment.
🧭 Final Thought
Breakouts and fakeouts are part of the same game: they involve both liquidity and psychology. The market rewards patience, context, and waiting for confirmation. Sometimes, missing the first candle can save you from being a liability to someone else. So, next time an asset “breaks out,” take a second look. Is it really moving with force? Or is it just another trap waiting to be sprung?
What’s the last fakeout that caught you off guard? Drop your story in the comments. Let’s compare lessons learned!
GBP/AUD - Bearish Flag (10.07.2025)The GBP/AUD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2.0671
2nd Support – 2.0607
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Understanding Elliott Wave Theory with BTC/USDIntroduction to Elliott Wave Theory:
Elliott Wave Theory is a popular method of technical analysis that seeks to predict the future price movement of financial markets. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the theory is based on the idea that market movements follow a repetitive pattern, driven by investor psychology.
At the core of Elliott’s theory is the idea that markets move in a 5-wave pattern in the direction of the trend, followed by a 3-wave corrective pattern. These waves can be seen on all timeframes and help traders identify potential entry and exit points in the market.
Key Concepts of Elliott Wave Theory:
1. Impulse Waves (The Trend)
2. These are the waves that move in the direction of the overall trend. They are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and represent the price movement in the main direction of the market.
* Wave 1: The initial move up (or down in a bearish market). I like to mark up the first wave how I do my Fibs, from the point where price showed a major impulse.
* Wave 2: A correction of Wave 1 (it doesn’t go lower than the starting point of Wave 1).
* Wave 3: The longest and most powerful wave in the trend.
* Wave 4: A smaller correction in the direction of the trend.
* Wave 5: The final push in the direction of the trend, which can be shorter and weaker than Wave 3.
3. Corrective Waves (The Pullbacks)
4. After the five-wave impulse, the market enters a corrective phase, moving against the trend. This corrective phase is generally a 3-wave pattern, labeled A, B, C:
* Wave A: The initial correction, typically smaller than Wave 3.
* Wave B: A temporary move against the correction (it often confuses traders who think the trend has resumed).
* Wave C: The final move against the trend, usually the strongest and most aggressive.
How to Implement Elliott Wave on BTC/USD:
Let’s break down how you can apply the Elliott Wave Theory to BTC/USD using a simple example.
1. Identify the Trend
2. Start by identifying the current market trend for BTC/USD. Are we in an uptrend or downtrend? This will determine whether you’re looking for a 5-wave impulse up (bullish) or down (bearish).
3. Locate the Waves
4. Look for the five-wave structure in the trend direction. Once you identify a potential impulse move, label the waves accordingly:
* Wave 1: A new uptrend starts.
* Wave 2: A small pullback (usually less than the size of Wave 1).
* Wave 3: A significant surge in price, often the most volatile.
* Wave 4: A smaller pullback or consolidation.
* Wave 5: The final push higher, which might show signs of exhaustion.
5. Corrective Phase
6. After completing the 5-wave impulse, expect a corrective 3-wave pattern (A, B, C). These corrections typically last longer than expected and can often confuse traders.
* Wave A: Price starts to reverse.
* Wave B: A retracement that may confuse traders into thinking the trend is resuming.
* Wave C: A strong pullback that brings the price even lower.
7. Use Fibonacci Levels as confluence
8. One of the most powerful tools in Elliott Wave analysis is Fibonacci retracement levels. You can use these to predict potential levels where Wave 2 and Wave 4 could end, or where Wave C might complete the correction. Common retracement levels are 38.2%-50% for Wave 4, and 50-61.8% For Waves 2 and B but keep in mind, these wave can retrace up to 100% before the wave analysis becomes invalid. But ideally these points are where you look to make an entry.
Wave 2 Example:
This one hit the golden spot (0.5-0.618) perfectly and continued to push upward.
Wave B and C Example:
This example hit closer to the 0.786 level which is also a key level for retracement.
Wave 4 Example:
This one hit the golden spot (0.382-0.5) for Wave 4 perfectly before continue the bullish momentum.
I try to use the RED levels below (1.1 and 1.2) as my invalidation (Stop Loss) levels and the GREEN levels (-0.27 and -0.618) as my Take Profit levels. Depending on your goals you can also use Fib Levels 0.236 and 0 as partial Take Profit levels.
9. Confirm with Indicators
10. To validate your Elliott Wave counts, use other indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD, or Moving Averages. For example, a Wave 3 might occur when the RSI is above 50, indicating strength in the trend.
In this example you can see the RSI cross the 50 threshold and the 3rd Wave form.
Continuation after the Wave is complete:
Tips for Trading with Elliott Wave Theory:
* Stay Flexible: Elliott Wave Theory is not set in stone. If the market doesn’t follow the expected pattern, adjust your wave counts accordingly.
* Don’t Rely on One Timeframe: A 5-wave structure on one timeframe may be part of a larger wave pattern on a higher timeframe. Always analyze multiple timeframes.
* Wave Personality: Waves don’t always look the same as stated earlier. Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1 and Wave 4 should generally not overlap Wave 1 or this may invalidate the Wave structure.
* Risk Management: Always use proper risk management techniques. No theory is perfect, so make sure you have a stop-loss in place to manage your risk.
Conclusion: Using Elliott Wave Theory on BTC/USD:
The Elliott Wave Theory can be a powerful tool for analyzing and forecasting price movements. By identifying the 5-wave impulse and 3-wave corrective patterns, you can gain insights into potential market direction. Just remember to use it alongside other tools and indicators for confirmation, and don’t forget to manage your risk.
As you apply it to BTC/USD or any other asset, remember that the market doesn’t always follow the "ideal" patterns, and flexibility is key. Practice on different timeframes, refine your skills, and use the theory as a part of your overall trading strategy.
Final Thoughts:
If you're just starting, don't get discouraged if you miss a wave or two. Trading is a journey, and with patience and practice, you'll begin to spot these patterns more naturally. Whether you’re analyzing Bitcoin's price action or any other asset, Elliott Wave Theory can give you a deeper understanding of market psychology.
Good Luck and Happy Trading!
Using the New 2025 TradingView Screener to find Golden CrossesIn this video, I show you how to use the new TradingView 2025 screener to quickly find stocks forming a golden cross and how to add the 50 and 200 simple moving averages to your charts for clear visual confirmation. A golden cross happens when the 50 moving average crosses up through the 200 moving average. Many traders (both fundamental and technical) watch for this pattern as a sign that a stock (or even whole market) may be shifting from a downtrend to a new uptrend.
Using the TradingView Screener we can quickly find Golden crosses to help filter for potential momentum setups without having to scan hundreds of charts manually. They are not magic signals, but when combined with your own analysis, they can help you spot bigger picture trends that are gaining strength. I walk through step-by-step how to set up your screener to catch these crossovers and add them to your watchlist.
If you want to keep your trading process simple while still catching moves early, this is a practical tool worth adding to your workflow. I also show a few quick tips on how to clean up your filters to reduce the number of stocks you have to go through.
Hope you find this useful. Please like and follow if you do :)
Quantum Computing - Why BTC isn't the biggest worryYou’ve probably heard that quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption—and that’s true. But here’s the thing: Bitcoin might not even be the biggest target.
The real risks? Financial systems, national security, healthcare, and even the internet itself. These areas rely on the same encryption methods that quantum computers could crack, and the fallout could be far worse than a Bitcoin hack.
Let’s break it down.
1️⃣ Financial Systems: A Global Crisis Waiting to Happen
Imagine if hackers could:
Drain bank accounts at will.
Manipulate stock markets.
Fake trillion-dollar transactions.
This isn’t just about stolen crypto—it’s about economic chaos. Banks, stock exchanges, and payment systems all depend on encryption. If quantum computers break it, we’re looking at a meltdown way bigger than Bitcoin’s $3 trillion market.
2️⃣ National Security & Internet Privacy: A Hacker’s Dream
Governments and militaries use encryption to:
Protect classified intelligence.
Secure communications between leaders.
Guard critical infrastructure (power grids, water supplies).
If quantum computers crack these codes, entire nations could be exposed to cyberwarfare. Your private data? At risk too—email, messaging, even your online banking could be decrypted years later.
3️⃣ Healthcare, Supply Chains & IoT: The Hidden Vulnerabilities
Medical records could be leaked, exposing sensitive health data.
Smart devices (like home security systems) could be hacked.
Supply chains might collapse if logistics networks are breached.
These systems weren’t built with quantum threats in mind—and upgrading them won’t be easy.
🔴 The Bigger Picture: A "Civilizational Upgrade"
Switching to quantum-resistant encryption is like rebuilding the internet’s foundation. It’s necessary, but messy. Some experts compare it to the Y2K bug—but way harder.
🔷 So, Is Bitcoin Safe?
Not entirely—about 25% of all Bitcoin could be stolen if quantum computers advance fast enough. But compared to the risks facing banks, governments, and hospitals? Bitcoin might be the least of our worries.
🔷 What’s Next?
Governments & companies are already working on fixes (like NIST’s post-quantum cryptography standards).
The transition will take years—and hackers might exploit weak spots along the way.
Staying informed is key. If you’re in tech, finance, or security, this affects you.
ℹ️ Want to Dive Deeper?
Deloitte’s take on quantum computing & Bitcoin
Forbes on quantum risks beyond crypto
🤷♂️ Bottom line?
Quantum computing is coming—and while Bitcoin has risks, the real danger lies in the systems we all depend on every day.
❔What do you think? Will we be ready in time? Let me know in the comments! 🚀
Why Traders Freeze: The Psychology Behind Not Cutting LossesFirst up: let’s address the elephant in the room. Loss aversion — that great human flaw. From the moment your ancient ancestor decided to poke a saber-toothed tiger to see what happens, the brain has been hard-coded to avoid pain at all costs.
Loss aversion is literally in your DNA — studies show people feel the sting of a loss twice as intensely as the pleasure of an equivalent gain.
When you see that trade slip into the red, your rational brain may say, “Cut it, the setup is invalid, live to trade another day.” But your emotional brain — the one still grunting in a cave — is screaming, “It might come back! Hold! HOOOLD!” So you sit, frozen.
🌱 Hope: The Most Expensive Four-Letter Word
Hope is the silent killer of trading accounts. You think you’re being patient as you decide to give the trade “room to breathe.”
But what you’re really doing is outsourcing your exit strategy to technical tools, news headlines, and anything that’s not your own choice, hoping something will rescue your losing position.
This is how tiny losses can turn into portfolio ruin. Just ask anyone who’s held a small-cap memecoin down 90% because the “team has potential.”
🧊 Analysis Paralysis: When the Chart Becomes a Maze
Another reason traders freeze? Overanalysis. One bad candle and suddenly you’re toggling between the 1-minute, 5-minute, and daily chart like you’re hacking into the Pentagon. And your trendlines? You’re probably drawing them wrong .
More data rarely leads to more decisive action. It just feeds your brain conflicting signals until you’re convinced you see a bounce that isn’t there. Meanwhile, the loss grows. And grows. And then you’re back to hope. Rinse, repeat.
😬 The Ego Monster: Admitting You’re Wrong
Here’s the harsh truth: cutting a loss means admitting you were wrong. For traders, whose entire identity can hinge on being “smart money,” that feels like public humiliation. The ego monster wants you to be right more than it wants you to be profitable.
So instead of taking the small L, you’ll cling to the trade because closing it out would force you to look in the mirror and say, “I was wrong and I need to do better.”
🏴☠️ From Risk Management to Revenge Trading
Once you’ve frozen long enough, you reach the next stage of the bad-losing cycle: revenge trading . Now you’re not just trying to recover your loss; you’re out to punish the market for “taking” your money.
Spoiler alert: the market doesn’t know you exist, and it certainly doesn’t care. Maybe this is the gambler’s mindset disguised as a “strategy?”
📉 Blame the Tools? Not So Fast
Some traders love to blame outside factors like the Economic calendar or their indicators when they freeze. “My RSI didn’t signal this! The MACD betrayed me!” Indicators are just tools — they don’t make decisions for you. You do.
Hiding behind tools means you refuse to take accountability. It’s a convenient excuse that can keep you stuck in the same losing habits. Better to master the one tool that matters: your discipline .
✂️ The Beauty of the Hard Stop
All hail the hard stop — the trader’s seatbelt. It’s not attractive, it’s mechanical, but it’s often the only thing standing between you and a potentially blown-up account.
The reason some traders can survive the market for decades isn’t because they’re never wrong — it’s because they’ve learned to make their stops non-negotiable.
A stop-loss is you telling your brain, “Hey, I’m not smarter than the market, so I’ll automate the decision before I get emotional.” It takes the agony out of cutting a loss because you’ve already decided on the outcome before your lizard brain can intervene.
⚖️ Small Losses Are the Cost of Doing Business
Want to feel better about cutting that loss? Think of it as your tuition fee. Every trader pays a certain cost to the market — it’s the cost of playing the game. No one gets every trade right. The pros just get better at losing small.
Those big-shot money spinners you look up to? They didn’t build their empire by never losing. They’re pros at getting out when they’re wrong. The difference between a pro and a blow-up isn’t the winning trade — it’s the ruthless discipline on the losing ones.
🧘♂️ Finding Comfort in Discomfort
There’s no magic trick to make loss-cutting feel good. It always stings. But you can train your brain to see a small loss as a win for your long-term survival. Write it down. Journal the trade . Log the emotion. Over time you’ll realize that the trades you exit early rarely haunt you.
🏁 Face the Fear, Keep the Account
And finally, freezing in front of a loss doesn’t protect you — it likely means you’ll pay more than you should. Next time your gut says, “Maybe it’ll come back…” ask yourself: “Do I want to be right, or do I want to trade another day?”
Your job is to trade well and stay in the game for as long as possible.
Your turn, traders : what’s your biggest “should’ve cut it sooner” horror story? Drop it below — we promise not to say we told you so.
Let’s talk about technical analysis & stops.Technical analysis is not your decision-making process — it’s a tool to help you structure better trading decisions by studying past price movements to anticipate likely future moves.
👉 Every time you look at a chart, you should decide:
✅ Do I want to trade at all?
✅ What’s my entry?
✅ Where’s my stop (when does my thesis fail)?
✅ What’s my target (where will I take profits)?
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🛑 Where to put your stop?
Take the S&P 500 daily chart. It’s been trending up strongly. Many traders use an exponential moving average (EMA) as a dynamic stop.
But:
• A 9 EMA often stops you out too early on strong trends.
• Adjusting to a 15 or 16 EMA could keep you in the trade longer, letting your winners run.
In tools like TradingView, you can visually adjust the EMA and see in real time how it would have kept you in or taken you out.
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💡 Key takeaway:
When price closes below your EMA stop — that’s your signal to exit and lock in profits.
Use TA to structure your trades, not just spot pretty patterns.
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💬 What’s your favourite method for setting stops?
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Eth $2,500 Resistance — Will Harmonic Pattern Trigger a Rally?Ethereum Stuck at $2,500 Resistance — Will Harmonic Pattern Trigger a Rally to $3,400?
Ethereum has been trading in a prolonged consolidation phase around the $2,500 level — a region that has acted as resistance for several weeks. This extended period of sideways action could signify either accumulation or distribution, depending on what comes next. Technically, Ethereum remains capped below major resistance and has yet to confirm a bullish breakout. However, a deeper corrective move followed by a reclaim of key levels could activate a larger harmonic pattern, which presents a potential rally scenario toward the $3,400 region.
-$2,500 Resistance Zone: Price continues to stall at this critical area, signaling indecision
-$2,200 Support Level: A potential bounce zone where bulls may re-enter the market
-Harmonic Pattern Forming: Possible C-to-D leg expansion targeting $3,400, pending confirmation
Ethereum’s price has remained stuck around the $2,500 region, which has evolved into a high time frame resistance. Price has yet to show a decisive breakout, and this extended stay near resistance typically signals one of two things: stealth accumulation before a breakout, or distribution before a breakdown. The direction will become clearer once price action reacts to either a support retest or a break of the current range.
From a bullish perspective, a potential corrective move toward the $2,200 region — a well-established support — would provide a healthy reset for price action. This zone has previously acted as a demand area and aligns closely with the value area low. If Ethereum bounces from this level and reclaims the point of control (POC) around $2,550 — which also aligns with weekly resistance — it would be a strong structural signal.
This sequence of moves could activate a larger harmonic pattern currently visible in Ethereum’s price action. If valid, the market could enter the C-to-D expansion phase of the harmonic setup, targeting the $3,400 region. While this pattern remains speculative and unconfirmed, its structure is valid and aligns with both historical Fibonacci extensions and support/resistance dynamics.
For this pattern to be confirmed, Ethereum must hold the $2,200 support level and produce a strong reclaim of $2,550 backed by volume. Without this confirmation, the idea remains purely speculative and should be approached with caution.
If Ethereum corrects to $2,200 and reclaims $2,550, a bullish C-to-D harmonic expansion may play out targeting $3,400. Until then, ETH remains range-bound and capped under major resistance.
SOLANA Loves THIS Pattern | BULLISHSolana usually increases alongside ETH. Possible because its a big competitor.
We can see SOL follows ETH very closely, with the exception of dipping earlier than ETH by a week:
In the 4h, we see a push to breakout above the neckline resistance:
In the daily timeframe, SOL is just about to break out above the moving averages - which would be the final confirmation of a bullish impulse to come:
Could this pattern be the confirmation of the start of another big pump for SOL?
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BINANCE:SOLUSDT
Is Bitcoin Working Out a New Leg Up? Onchain Data Says It May BeDiamond hands are waving goodbye and institutions are loading up — it’s why Bitcoin may be struggling to break out of its current consolidation range. How long can this accumulation phase continue?
And yes — we look at the trades of the decade — two transactions where each one moved a cool billie from a $7.8K investment in 2011.
Some people cling to their Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD stash like it’s their last protein bar before a marathon. Others, apparently, wake up one day and decide to dump their coins and browse the market for islands.
Welcome to the silent shift that’s redefining the big players in the Bitcoin market, worth about $2.2 trillion as per data from our Crypto Coins Heatmap .
Old-school whales — the very early adopters and miners holding the OG wallets — are quietly selling, while institutional heavyweights sweep in to buy every dip (part of the reason why lately every breakout never breaks out).
Over the past year, these OG whales have shed about half a million Bitcoin — worth north of $50 billion — according to data from 10x Research. And guess who’s gobbling it all up? ETFs, corporate treasuries, and family offices that didn’t want anything to do with crypto five years ago.
Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Is it just Bitcoin being Bitcoin? Let’s pull up the charts, squint at the data, and see what the world’s most famous digital coin might be plotting next.
📈 A Record High — And Now What?
So here’s the setup. Bitcoin has been strutting under its record high of $111,000 for months now. You’d think the hype machine — from Trump’s pro-crypto administration, to corporate balance sheets going full Michael Saylor (looking at you, GameStop NYSE:GME ) — would send BTC blasting past the Moon and landing on Mars.
Instead? It’s just... chilling. Volatility’s drying up like the last drop of liquidity in a summer Friday session. And the reason is surprisingly simple: the massive handover happening between big, anonymous early adopters and the suit-and-tie institutional crowd.
😌 From Wild Ride to Easy Cruising?
You could argue this is exactly what Bitcoin needs: maturity, respectability, less drama. But don’t tell that to the day traders who want 20% swings before breakfast. As these whales get out and institutions get in, analysts say the upside could be capped at a chill 10% to 20% a year.
Good news for your retirement portfolio, maybe not so great for that “Lambo by Labor Day” dream.
Institutions now hold about 25% of all Bitcoin in circulation — and once these get in, they tend to sit tight for years.
🚀 The $1.1 Billion Time Capsule
Speaking of whales: ever wonder what happens when a Bitcoin wallet goes dark for 14 years? It pops back online to make your mind melt.
On April 3, 2011, a wallet labeled “1HqXB...gDwcK” moved 23,377 BTC to three addresses. At the time, Bitcoin was worth a mere 78 cents. Fast forward: two of those receiving wallets, each with 10,000 BTC, sat dormant for over a decade.
This month, both wallets moved their treasure troves — worth over $1.1 billion each — within 30 minutes of each other. Talk about a coordinated exit. What’s behind the move? Tax planning? A lost key finally found?
A savvy crypto thief who figured how to crack the earliest key generation method? We may never know. Also, OG guy, if you’re reading this — props for the all-at-once move without even a test transaction.
⛓️ What Onchain Data Says
Onchain data is like reading tea leaves for nerds with Bloomberg terminals. It says the supply is tightening — not because there’s less Bitcoin, but because fewer coins are actually available to trade.
When long-term holders move coins, that typically signals big-picture changes. Here’s the twist: the net effect has been… stability. Institutional demand, like Bitcoin exchange-traded funds , soaks up supply just as fast as whales drip it back in.
That’s why Bitcoin’s been stuck in this $100K–$110K limbo, ping-ponging while the accumulation phase is still going strong.
👀 So, Is a New Leg Up Coming?
This is where the optimists and realists start to bicker over the charts. On the one hand, the structural handover to institutions makes Bitcoin more credible, more regulated, and more boring.
But less volatility can mean steadier gains — especially if you believe that the world will always want an inflation hedge that no central bank can print into oblivion.
On the other hand, a sideways market can test your patience more than a typical drawdown. Some of the whales are gone, the suits have arrived, and the easy moonshots might not be so easy anymore.
🌱 The Trade-Offs of Growing Up
Bitcoin was born in the wild west of finance — an anonymous, volatile, meme-fueled phenomenon. Now, it’s drifting deep into the mainstream. That might limit the fireworks, but it also locks in its place as an asset class that’s not going away.
🌊 Closing Thoughts: The Next Billion-Dollar Move
Will we see another $7,800 investment turn into a cool $1 billion? Maybe not exactly like that. But the game isn’t over — it’s just evolving.
Keep your eyes on the whales, the ETFs, the Fed’s next move , and those onchain breadcrumbs.
Over to you , chart-watchers: does this calm consolidation make you bullish, bearish, or just plain bored? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Pine Screener - Powerful tool for building programmable screenerHello Everyone,
In this video, we have discussed on how to use pine screener utility of tradingview. We are making use of the indicator Divergence Screener for this demonstration and screen stocks undergoing bullish divergence.
In a nutshell, here are the steps:
🎯 Use Stock Screener to build watchlist of less than 1000 symbols
🎯 Add the indicator you want to use in the pine screener to your favorites.
🎯 Pine screener can be accessed from the tradingview screener menu or you can simply click on the link www.tradingview.com
🎯 Add the watchlist and indicator to the pine screener and adjust the timeframe and indicator settings
🎯 Select the criteria to be scanned and press scan
BTC monthly yelling at us for something interesting ?We read daily news about ETF, accumulation by institutes and scarcity in the exchanges, but I recognize something different in the chart based on multiple indicators. Historically, BTC boomed after touching 50 EMA and whenever it is extended it traces back to 50 EMA on monthly chart. As per current data, BTC is extended far from it. Also RSI and MACD indicating that it is losing momentum with -ve divergence. Volume as well descreasing since last leg, though price moved up. So, I expect price to retrace to 50 EMA which coincides with previous high at 60K. Let us see how it unfolds.
How to mark your charts Lightning fast!One of the things I didn't like was marking my charts. I would take so much time marking my charts and adding the prices on the side. My mentor showed me the fastest way. Just use the FIB tool and use "0" and "1". Now you can focus on other important things. I want to thank my mentor for showing me this. Good luck to everyone
Gold on the Move – Major Resistance Levels to Watch AheadThe current price action looks strong, and if the bullish momentum continues, we have three main target levels in mind.
The first target is $3,380. This is an important level we expect gold to reach soon if the trend continues upward.
If the price breaks above $3,380, the next target is $3,433. This level is likely to act as a strong resistance, meaning the price might slow down or pull back here. But if gold can push through it with strength, that’s a strong signal of continued upside.
After that, the third target is $3,495, which would mark a strong extension of the current bullish trend.
As long as gold stays above key support levels, we believe the bullish outlook remains valid, and these targets are possible in the coming days or weeks.
BTC POTENTIAL BULLS TRAP IN DEVELOPMENTI am inspecting the 4 hour candle in comparison to the daily chart on BTC and it seem we have all the characteristics of a bulls trap on the chart. If the next 4 hours candle does not close bullish, it will confirm a bulls trap and price will likely pullback into the triangle. So be cautious trading at this resistance level.
Bull Trap Chart Characteristics
Look for:
A strong bullish candle that breaks above recent highs or resistance.
Volume spike on the breakout — signs that traders are buying.
Followed by a sharp bearish candle (like a shooting star, bearish engulfing, or long wick).
Price falls back below resistance, turning the breakout into a fakeout.
Cheers !!