Will Santa Bring Bitcoin? Tracking Crypto Trends Each DecemberAs the festive season draws near, Bitcoin traders often wonder: is December a gift-giving month for the OG crypto or one where Santa skips the BTC chimney altogether?
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s December performance has varied wildly — from record-setting rallies to stomach-churning corrections.
But this year, the festive cheer in the crypto world is particularly jolly.
Bitcoin BTCUSD has smashed through the $100,000 mark , Ethereum ETHUSD is dancing above $4,000 , and the markets are buzzing with speculation about lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and crypto-friendly policies from Donald Trump’s White House.
Before we spill what we know about this Christmas’s crypto miracles, let’s take a trip down memory lane, tracking Bitcoin's price moves for each December over the past 10 years.
Bitcoin’s December Performance: A 10-Year Recap
2013: A Frosty End to the First Big Rally
❆ Start of December: ~$1,000
❆ End of December: ~$750 (-25%)
Bitcoin was coming off its first significant bull run, fueled by very early retail and media hype. The exuberance didn’t last as profit-taking and concerns over Mt. Gox’s solvency sent prices tumbling.
2014: A Crypto Winter Christmas
❆ Start of December: ~$375
❆ End of December: ~$320 (-15%)
2014 was a tough year for Bitcoin. The infamous Mt. Gox hack earlier had crushed investor confidence, and the December sell-off reflected broader pessimism about crypto's future.
2015: A Subtle Santa Rally
❆ Start of December: ~$360
❆ End of December: ~$430 (+19%)
After a year of consolidation, Bitcoin ended 2015 on a positive note. December brought renewed optimism, with the first whispers of institutional interest starting to surface.
2016: The Calm Before the Storm
❆ Start of December: ~$740
❆ End of December: ~$960 (+30%)
This was the beginning of Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream consciousness. A steady rally through December set the stage for the parabolic run of 2017.
2017: Deck the Halls With All-Time Highs
❆ Start of December: ~$10,800
❆ End of December: ~$14,000 (+30%)
Bitcoin mania hit fever pitch as it reached its then-all-time high of nearly $20,000 mid-month. However, the rally fizzled by year-end, signaling the start of a brutal bear market.
2018: Coal in the Stocking
❆ Start of December: ~$4,000
❆ End of December: ~$3,800 (-5%)
The post-2017 bubble burst was in full swing. By December, Bitcoin was down nearly 80% from its peak, and the market was entrenched in a bear trend.
2019: A Neutral Noel
❆ Start of December: ~$7,500
❆ End of December: ~$7,200 (-4%)
This year saw modest losses in December as Bitcoin remained range-bound following a mid-year rally that fizzled out.
2020: A Festive Bull Run
❆ Start of December: ~$19,500
❆ End of December: ~$29,000 (+48%)
The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated Bitcoin adoption as institutions like MicroStrategy and PayPal jumped in. December capped off a historic year with a near 50% rally.
2021: Bitcoin on the Naughty List
❆ Start of December: ~$57,000
❆ End of December: ~$46,000 (-19%)
Despite starting strong, December 2021 saw Bitcoin slide as macroeconomic fears around inflation and Fed tapering weighed on risk assets.
2022: The Crypto Winter Lingers
❆ Start of December: ~$17,000
❆ End of December: ~$16,500 (-3%)
The collapse of FTX in November left the crypto market reeling. With investor confidence shattered, Bitcoin struggled to recover, hovering near its bear-market lows.
2023: A Recovery Year
❆ Start of December: ~$40,000
❆ End of December: ~$42,500 (+6%)
With the market recovering from the harsh crypto winter of 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily throughout the year, culminating in December's moderate gains.
Bitcoin ended 2023 on a modestly bullish note, driven by renewed optimism around regulatory developments and institutional interest, especially around the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that would launch in January 2024.
Final Days of 2024: A December to Remember?
Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable, with the OG cryptocurrency trading above $108,000 — a new all-time high. December’s price action will likely hinge on several key factors:
1️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy : Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the Fed's final meeting of the year on December 18. This has already fueled risk-on sentiment, but a surprise decision to hold rates could spark a possible sell-off.
2️⃣ Institutional Demand : Big-shot investors have continued to pour into Bitcoin in 2024, with the genuine Bitcoin ETFs accumulating more than $100 billion in assets.
3️⃣ Market Sentiment : After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin’s psychological momentum is strong. Traders are eyeing $125,000 as the next target, though volatility could lead to sharp corrections.
4️⃣ Donald Trump : The sheer power concentrated in one man — President-elect has vowed to support the growth of the crypto industry through a Bitcoin strategic reserve, lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs on US imports. Bullishness is truly in the air heading into 2025.
What’s Under the Tree for Crypto in 2025?
Looking ahead, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains bullish. The combination of institutional, business and consumer adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a macroeconomic environment that continues to favor risk assets sets the stage for further growth. While $108,000 is impressive, many believe it’s just the beginning of Bitcoin’s next chapter.
As we wrap up 2024, one thing is clear: the crypto market never takes a holiday (or any days off). Whether the Fed today delivers a rate cut or not, traders can expect plenty of action as we head into the new year. So, grab your hot cocoa, keep your TradingView app handy, and enjoy the ride.
Happy holidays, and may your trades be merry and bright!
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Tesla is overhyped and over-extendedHistory repeats itself. Tesla is getting overhyped without clear tangible reason. Robotaxis? Sure, maybe they will be launched next year, but how will the car charge itself? A bunch of logistics and legislation are not yet in place. The Cyber-Truck was a bit of a failure. At least two Chinese EV's are not only catching up, but overpassing it (Nio, BYD). The new Tesla refreshed models are in a way a step-back. Disclosure: I do own a 2022 Tesla Model 3 Performance, but am a bit disappointed with the latest model refresh. Instead of giving people what they want, HUD/screen for the driver, they took out the stalks, and the parking sensors... great decision, now the car instead of showing me exactly the distance to an object, it continuously beeps for non-existent ones.
Anyway, returning to the Tesla stock, with a P/E ratio of over 100, no way this will stay at such a value for long. One of the reasons it got so high, I suspect is due to it being somewhat over-shorted already. Still, what goes up, must come down (eventually).
I'm predicting a more realistic 250-280 within the next 6 months (June 2025), a similar repeat of March/Aug 2022 when Tesla performed by far at their best (yellow/blue paths superimposed over the current stock price).
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Mastering the German 40 Index: A Comprehensive Trading Strategy 👀👉 In this detailed video, I examine the complexities of trading the German 40 Index (DAX), sharing my personal trading plan and strategies aimed at identifying lucrative trade opportunities. Most importantly, my goal is to provide you with the essential tools to effectively navigate the indices markets. 📈✨
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Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid?Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid?
The Mexican peso, a dynamic player in the global forex market, embodies a unique blend of historical resilience and modern financial attractiveness. As we delve into the reasons behind its impressive liquidity, this article offers valuable insights for traders and investors eager to understand the intricacies and opportunities presented by one of Latin America's most prominent currencies.
The Mexican Peso: An Overview
The Mexican peso, a currency with a rich history and a significant presence in the global market, often surprises investors asking, “How much is the Mexican peso worth?” when they discover it’s one of the strongest emerging market currencies around.
Its performance in the forex market is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, particularly those from the United States, including benchmark interest rates. The currency has benefitted from Mexico's nearshoring boom and soaring remittances, alongside a healthy fiscal position, contributing to its appeal to investors and traders worldwide.
As the most traded currency in Latin America, the Mexican peso’s popularity underscores its importance in the regional and global financial landscape. With this background in mind, let’s take a look at 3 reasons the Mexican peso is so liquid.
Reason 1: Strong Economic Fundamentals
The liquidity of the Mexican peso today is closely tied to Mexico's strong economic fundamentals. In 2023, Mexico's economy has shown resilience and growth, marked by a significant increase in exports. This export-driven growth, reaching a record high, is supported by Mexico's robust trade relationship with the United States, making it the US's top trade partner with nearly $600 billion in two-way trade over the first nine months of 2023.
Inflation control is another pillar of Mexico's economic stability. After peaking at 8.7% in 2022, inflation has been effectively managed, witnessing a decrease to around 4.26% in October 2023. This decline demonstrates the successful monetary policies of the Bank of Mexico, indicating a resilient economic environment.
A key indicator of this economic improvement is in a comparison of the US dollar currency to the Mexican peso. In July 2023, the peso reached a low of 16.62 pesos per dollar vs a peak of 25.7 pesos per dollar in April 2020, showcasing its strongest performance in recent times. This strength is a direct reflection of investor confidence in the Mexican economy and can be observed in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico has reached new heights, with almost $33 billion recorded in the first nine months of 2023. The announcement of significant investments, like Tesla's planned "gigafactory" in Nuevo León, underscores the international business community's interest in Mexico, contributing to the peso's liquidity.
Reason 2: Active Participation by the Central Bank
The liquidity of the Mexican peso is significantly reinforced by the active role of Banco de México, the country’s central bank. The bank's monetary policy plays a crucial role in maintaining the attractiveness of the peso, which in turn contributes to its liquidity.
One of the key strategies employed by Banco de México is its effective management of the overnight interbank funding rate. Throughout 2023, Banco de México maintained a consistent approach to this rate, reflecting its commitment to financial stability.
For instance, the target for the overnight interbank funding rate has been kept unchanged at 11.25% for several periods in 2023, following a series of incremental increases in the preceding years. These decisions are a reflection of the bank's responsiveness to economic conditions and its aim to balance growth with price stability.
Another important aspect of the bank's policy is the accumulation and management of international reserves. These reserves, which exceeded USD 203 billion as of October 2023, provide a buffer against external economic shocks, helping the country maintain economic stability in the face of global volatility. This stability is essential for sustaining the peso's liquidity, as it reassures investors about the country's economic resilience.
Reason 3: High Trading Volume and Global Interest
The history of the Mexican peso reveals a journey of economic reforms and policy shifts that have shaped its current state in the global market. Over the years, these changes have been contributing to stabilisation and reliability of the peso, making it a more attractive option for traders and investors and boosting its trading volume.
This high trading volume creates a virtuous cycle that may further enhance the currency's liquidity. More trading volume signifies a greater number of transactions and a broader investor base, which, in turn, increases the currency's visibility and appeal in the global market. As more traders and investors engage with the peso, it may lead to rate stabilisation and smoother market movements, which are key factors for a liquid market.
Additionally, the factors previously discussed, such as the strong economic fundamentals and the active role of the central bank, contribute to this cycle. A growing economy, along with effective monetary policies, boosts investor confidence. In response, more traders and investors are drawn to the currency, thereby increasing its trading volume and liquidity, and the cycle repeats.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, the Mexican peso's resilience and appeal are clear indicators of its significance in the forex market. With its robust economic fundamentals, proactive central bank policies, and high trading volume attracting global interest, the peso stands as an attractive currency for traders and investors. For those looking to engage with this dynamic currency, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to the vibrant world of Mexican peso trading, providing an opportunity to participate in the market's ongoing growth and vitality.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Currency Wars: Exploring BTC/Fiat Ripple Effects on Key Markets1. Introduction
In today's interconnected financial markets, major fiat currencies like the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) play a critical role in influencing USD-denominated assets. The relative strength between these currencies often reflects underlying economic trends and risk sentiment, which ripple across key markets like Treasuries (ZN), Gold (GC), and Equities (ES).
However, Bitcoin (BTC), a non-traditional digital asset, introduces an interesting divergence. Unlike fiat currencies, BTC's behavior during periods of significant market stress may reveal a unique relationship to USD movements. This article explores:
The relative strength between the Euro and Yen.
Correlations between fiat currencies, BTC, and USD-denominated markets.
Whether BTC reacts similarly or differently to traditional currencies during market volatility.
By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to identify how shifts in currency strength influence assets like Treasuries while assessing BTC’s independence or alignment with fiat markets.
2. Relative Strength Between 6E and 6J
To evaluate currency dynamics, we compute the relative strength of the Euro (6E) versus the Yen (6J) as a ratio. This ratio helps identify which currency is outperforming, providing insights into broader risk sentiment and market direction.
Another way to think of this ratio would be to use the RY1! Ticker symbol which represents the Euro/Japanese Yen Futures contract.
Correlation Heatmaps
The correlation heatmaps below highlight relationships between:
o Currencies: Euro (6E), Yen (6J), and Bitcoin (BTC).
o USD-Denominated Markets: Treasuries (ZN), S&P 500 (ES), Crude Oil (CL), Gold (GC), and Corn (ZC).
o Key Observations (Daily Timeframe):
The 6J (Yen) shows a positive correlation with Treasuries (ZN), supporting its traditional role as a safe-haven currency.
Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrates mixed relationships across assets, showing signs of divergence compared to fiat currencies during specific conditions.
o Key Observations (Weekly and Monthly Timeframes):
Over longer timeframes, correlations between 6E and markets like Gold (GC) strengthen, while the Yen's (6J) correlation with Treasuries becomes more pronounced.
BTC correlations remain unstable, suggesting Bitcoin behaves differently than traditional fiat currencies, particularly in stress periods.
3. BTC Divergence: Behavior During Significant Moves
To assess BTC's behavior during stress periods, we identify significant moves (beyond a predefined threshold) in the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J). Using scatter plots, we plot BTC returns against these currency moves:
BTC vs 6E (Euro):
BTC returns show occasional alignment with Euro movements but also exhibit non-linear patterns. For instance, during sharp Euro declines, BTC has at times remained resilient, highlighting its decoupling from fiat.
BTC vs 6J (Yen):
BTC's reaction to Yen strength/weakness appears more random, lacking a clear pattern. This further underscores BTC’s independence from traditional fiat dynamics, even as Yen strength typically aligns with safe-haven asset flows.
The scatter plots reveal that while fiat currencies like the Euro and Yen maintain consistent relationships with USD-denominated markets, Bitcoin exhibits periods of divergence, particularly during extreme stress events.
4. Focus on Treasury Futures (ZN)
Treasury Futures (ZN) are among the most responsive assets to currency shifts due to their role as a safe-haven instrument during economic uncertainty. Treasury prices often rise when risk aversion drives investors to seek safer assets, particularly when fiat currencies like the Yen (6J) strengthen.
6E/6J Influence on ZN
From the correlation heatmaps:
The Yen (6J) maintains a positive correlation with ZN prices, particularly during periods of market stress.
The Euro (6E) exhibits a moderate correlation, with fluctuations largely dependent on economic events affecting Eurozone stability.
When relative strength shifts in favor of the Yen (6J) over the Euro (6E), Treasury Futures often attract increased demand, reflecting investor flight-to-safety dynamics.
Forward-Looking Trade Idea
Given the above insights, here’s a hypothetical trade idea focusing on 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN):
Trade Direction: Long Treasury Futures to capitalize on potential safe-haven flows.
Entry Price: 109’29
Target Price: 111’28
Stop Loss: 109’09
Potential for Reward: 126 ticks = $1,968.75
Potential for Risk: 40 ticks = $625
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.15:1
Tick Value: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625
Required margin: $2,000 per contract
This trade setup anticipates ZN’s upward momentum if the Yen continues to outperform the Euro or if broader risk-off sentiment triggers demand for Treasuries.
5. Risk Management Importance
Trading currency-driven assets like Treasury Futures or Bitcoin requires a disciplined approach to risk management due to their volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. Key considerations include:
a. Stop-Loss Orders:
Always use stop-loss levels to limit downside exposure, especially when markets react sharply to currency moves or unexpected news.
b. Position Sizing:
Adjust position size to match market volatility.
c. Monitor Relative Strength:
Continuously track the 6E/6J ratio to identify shifts in currency strength that could signal changes in safe-haven flows or BTC behavior.
d. Non-Correlated Strategies:
Incorporate BTC into portfolios as a non-correlated asset, especially when fiat currencies exhibit linear correlations with traditional markets.
By implementing proper risk management techniques, traders can navigate the ripple effects of currency moves on markets like Treasuries and Bitcoin.
6. Conclusion
The relative strength between the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) provides critical insights into the broader market environment, particularly during periods of stress. As shown:
Treasury Futures (ZN): Highly sensitive to Yen strength due to its safe-haven role.
Bitcoin (BTC): Demonstrates unique divergence from fiat currencies, reinforcing its role as a non-traditional asset during volatility.
By analyzing correlations and BTC’s reaction to currency moves, traders can better anticipate opportunities in USD-denominated markets and identify divergence points that signal market shifts.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Cocoa vs BTC. Introducing Cocoa Futures Commodities TradingCommodity trading has been booming in recent months and years, as everything from industrial metals to oil, precious metals to soft commodities (coffee, cocoa) is getting hotter.
Last week, coffee futures traded in New York ICEUS:KC1! reached 348 cents per pound of beans, a new historical high, and frozen orange juice concentrate futures ICEUS:OJ1! exceeded the $5 mark for 1 pound, reaching also a new all-time high.
The macroeconomic situation, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the overall market volatility caused by these large movements, create a lot of new opportunities.
In addition, the food and environmental crisis sweeping across the planet (a special type of environmental situation when the habitat of one of the species or populations changes in such a way that it calls into question its further existence) is creating extreme bottlenecks in supply chains everywhere, which leads to shortages on the one hand, and a corresponding increase in prices and opportunities on the other.
Both private investors and professional market participants can use Commodities Cocoa Futures to expand the possibilities of investment strategies - hedging risks and profiting from price fluctuations.
For market participants involved in the production and processing of cocoa, futures contracts will allow them to better protect their income from undesirable changes in exchange prices for cocoa beans.
In addition, for those market participants involved in the wholesale purchase of cocoa, futures contracts allow them to better protect their margins from undesirable price fluctuations in exchange prices for cocoa beans, which lead to an increase in purchasing costs.
The underlying asset of the futures is the price of cocoa beans on foreign markets. The contracts reflect the dynamics of the price of cocoa beans supplied from countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America to any of the five delivery ports in the United States.
In fundamental terms, on November 29, 2024, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its estimate of the world cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -478,000 tonnes from -462,000 tonnes forecast in May, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO also lowered its estimate of cocoa production for 2023/24 to 4.380 million tonnes from 4.461 million tonnes in May, a -13.1% decrease from the previous year. ICCO forecasts world cocoa stocks to be 27.0% in 2023/24, a 46-year low.
Cocoa prices have risen sharply over the past months due to uncertainty about future cocoa supplies. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have led to reports of high mortality of cocoa buds on trees due to heavy rainfall.
Unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast have flooded fields, increased the risk of disease, and affected the quality of the crop. Newly harvested cocoa beans from Ivory Coast are showing lower quality, with quantities of about 105 beans per 100 grams. Ivory Coast regulators allow exporters to purchase quantities of 80 to 100 beans or slightly more per 100 grams.
In other words, West Africa is now exporting at its maximum productive capacity, but the deficit in world reserves remains and is growing.
The arrival of seasonal harmattan winds could also worsen the situation.
Declining global cocoa stocks is also a bullish factor for prices. Cocoa stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at three major US ports (Delaware River Port, Hampton Roads Port and New York Port) have been declining for the past year and a half and fell to a 20-year low of 1,430,974 bags on Friday, December 13, 2024 (down 15 percent over the past month).
Another important factor for prices is the seasonal approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, especially in the main cocoa consuming regions - the US and Europe.
Cocoa prices on world markets are again returning above $ 10,000 per ton, while crypto fanatics in their manic persistence to get the last unmined bitcoin are ready to burn the planet Earth to hell and only deepen the food and environmental crisis striding across the planet.
The main graph represents a comparison across BTC and Cocoa prices over past several months.
So, what would you like to choose amid of recent rally in both assets - sweet cocoa or binary digits inside your computer?
Or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s talk about it!
Send your thoughts and questions into comment box below to discuss about Cocoa Futures Commodities Trading!
JPMorgan: Not the Star of BethlehemThe Christmas season is known for three Wisemen following a light in the night sky to Bethlehem. But another, less jovial star may have settled above the House of Morgan.
The first pattern on today’s chart of JPMorgan Chase is the candle on November 25. Prices jumped above $253 in the first five minutes of that Monday morning, but quickly reversed and closed at $250.29. Some traders may view that as a bearish shooting-star pattern.
JPM proceed to close lower the next six sessions and was soon under $250. Its shares have continued downward, probing above their 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) while mostly closing below it.
That could suggest a short-term downtrend has developed. Falling MACD may provide a similar signal.
Finally, a large gap occurred on November 6 after Donald Trump was reelected President. Could JPM now look to fill some of that space?
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Cheers to 2024: Charting The Year with TradeStationJoin us LIVE with David Russell, Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we take a comprehensive look at the market trends shaping the final months of 2024. In this episode, we’re focusing on election-related trades, end-of-year positioning, and a year-in-review to help you set up for a successful transition into 2025.
With the end of the year approaching, we’ll discuss critical strategies for navigating the final countdown of 2024, covering everything from political events to holiday market dynamics.
Here’s what we’ll cover:
1. End-of-Year Trades: Key strategies for positioning your portfolio as we head into the year’s end, including opportunities tied to the holiday shopping season.
2. Year in Review: A detailed look at the top-performing sectors and stocks of 2024, and the lessons we can learn from both the winners and underperformers.
3. Market Recap & 2025 Outlook: Important takeaways from this year’s market trends and how to apply those insights to set yourself up for success in the new year.
4. Holiday Events Impact: How major events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Christmas shopping season will affect consumer-driven stocks and overall market sentiment.
As we head into the final stretch of 2024, we’ll also be reflecting on the lessons learned throughout the year and looking ahead to opportunities in 2025. Happy holidays, and best of luck with your trades as we wrap up 2024 and head into a new year of possibilities.
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Solo Trading in a Frenzied Market: Avoiding the Crowd TrapIn the world of trading, the crowd effect is a serious psychological obstacle that often causes traders to lose their way. This phenomenon, where traders make decisions based on the majority's actions rather than their own analysis, can result in impulsive buying or selling. As many traders point out, such decisions often end in financial losses.
📍 Understanding the Crowd Effect
The crowd effect is based on the tendency of people to obey the actions of the majority. In the trading arena, it can manifest itself when traders jump on the bandwagon and buy assets during an uptrend in the market or hastily sell them during a downtrend due to panic.
While trend trading may be logical - after all, if most people are buying, it may seem unwise to resist the flow - there is a delicate balance to be struck here. Joining a long-term uptrend can lead to buying assets at their peak. This is especially evident in cryptocurrency markets, where FOMO can cause prices to rise artificially, allowing an experienced market maker to capitalize on these moments by selling off assets at peak levels.
📍 The Dangers of the Crowd Effect for Traders
• Impulsive Decision-Making: Crowd-driven decisions are rarely based on careful analysis, increasing the risk of costly mistakes.
• Ignoring Personal Strategy: Traders often abandon their trading plans in the heat of mass panic or excitement, forgetting the essential disciplines that guide their decisions.
• Overestimating Risks: Following the herd can lead to overextended positions in the expectation of “guaranteed” profits, further increasing potential losses.
• Market Bubbles and Crashes: Collective crowd behavior can lead to market bubbles and sharp declines, negatively affecting all participants.
📍 Examples of the Crowd Effect
▸ Bull Market and FOMO: During a strong uptrend, new traders may be attracted by the sight of other people buying assets. They often join the frenzy at the peak of prices and then take losses when the market corrects.
▸ Bear Market and Panic Selling: During a downturn, fear can prompt traders to sell off massively, minimizing their ability to recoup losses in a recovering market.
▸ Social Media Influence: In today's digital age, the opinions of self-proclaimed market “gurus” can prompt uncritical investment decisions. Traders may buy trending assets without proper analysis, leading to losses when prices inevitably fall.
📍 Why Traders Give in to Crowd Influence
Several psychological factors underlie why traders may succumb to the crowd effect:
▪️ Fear of Being Wrong: Traders derive a sense of security by aligning with the majority, even when it contradicts their logic.
▪️ Desire for Social Approval: The inclination to conform can lead to decisions based on collective trends rather than independent analysis.
▪️ Emotional Traps: High volatility can spread feelings of euphoria or panic, swaying traders away from rational decision-making.
▪️ Cognitive Distortions: The phenomenon of groupthink reinforces the false belief that popular decisions are invariably correct.
▪️ Lack of Confidence: Inexperienced traders, particularly, may align themselves with the crowd out of insecurity in their own judgment.
📍 Steps to Mitigate the Crowd Effect
🔹 Develop a Clear Trading Strategy: Create and adhere to a trading plan that reflects your risk tolerance, and trust it even when market participants act differently.
🔹 Avoid Emotional Decision-Making: Base your trading on systematic analysis rather than fleeting market sentiment. Take a moment to pause and assess your emotions before making critical choices.
🔹 Limit External Influences: Steer clear of forums and social media during volatile periods; avoid following advice without verifiable research.
🔹 Employ Objective Analysis Tools: Lean on technical and fundamental analysis instead of crowd sentiment. Identify patterns and levels for entry and exit rather than moving with the trending tide.
🔹 Enhance Self-Confidence: Fortify your market knowledge and trading strategy to reduce reliance on crowd validation. Keep a trading journal to document your successes and the soundness of your decisions.
🔹 Manage Risks Wisely: Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Segment your capital to mitigate the impact of any sizable losses.
🔹 Assess Crowd Behavior: Use indicators, such as market sentiment and trading volume, to gauge the crowd's actions, but retain the independence of thought. Remember that crowds can often misjudge trend reversals.
📍 Conclusion
The crowd effect poses a serious threat to rational decision-making in trading. However, through disciplined strategies, thorough analysis, and effective emotion management, traders can minimize adverse impacts. Remember that successful trading is rooted in objectivity and independent judgment rather than blind conformity.
“The market favors traders who think independently instead of conforming to the crowd.”
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Moving Averages in Action In a past post, we looked at how you can possibly use Bollinger bands within your trading. So, if you haven’t already read it and would like to, please look at our past posts for details.
Today, we want to cover moving averages, which is another trending indicator. Trending indicators are important because they allow us to confirm activity currently being seen in price action. This can provide extra confidence in the trending condition of an asset.
So, let’s look at simple moving averages.
These are used to confirm the current trend of a market. They smooth out price action and can be calculated over various time periods.
For example, a simple 5 day moving average is calculated by adding up the previous 5 closing levels for an instrument, and the total is divided by 5. This is recalculated the next day using the latest 5 closing levels and the new total is again divided by 5. The resulting line is plotted on a price chart.
As prices move higher, the moving average will move higher following below price activity. As prices decline, the moving average will fall above price.
This effectively shows us the 5 day price trend of any instrument.
Using this type of calculation means the longer the timeframe, the slower a moving average reacts to price activity, be it up or down. For instance, a 5 day moving average will follow price action more quickly and closely than a 50 day moving average.
You can have as many moving averages on a chart as you wish, but be aware, the more you have, the more confusing reading the chart can become.
As such, we are going to be looking at examples below, using just 2 simple moving averages, because the relationship between the 2 averages throws up some potentially interesting signals.
Combining 2 Moving Averages on a Pepperstone Price Chart:
As already said above, if a 5 day simple moving average is rising, it reflects the 5 day trend is up. If we expand on that, we could say, if we are using 2 moving averages, like for example, the 5 and 10 day averages, if both are rising or falling at the same time, it potentially offers a stronger indication of the trending condition of an instrument.
Using this combination of 5 and 10 day averages, let’s look at a daily chart of the Germany 40 index on the Pepperstone system.
In this chart of the Germany 40 index, with what we already know about moving averages we can say, if both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, the Germany 40 index is trading within an uptrend.
If they are both falling, the price of the Germany 40 index is in a downtrend.
As such, simple moving averages can offer a way to assess the trending condition of an asset. However, it doesn’t stop there.
Look at the times marked by the chart above, where the rising 5 day average, crosses above the rising 10 day average. These signals are marked by green arrows and can materialise during the early stages of a new upside move.
When a cross is seen where both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, it is called a Golden Cross, which may see further price strength.
Now look at this chart.
Look at the crosses in the averages where the falling 5 day average crossed below the falling 10 day average, marked by red arrows.
These may be seen before the early stages of a new downside move.
When a cross is seen where both averages are falling, it’s known as a Dead Cross, which could see price weakness.
To Stress, the Averages Must be Moving in the Same Direction When They Cross.
If they cross but are moving in opposite directions, this can be a neutral signal and tends to suggest sideways/consolidation activity in price.
When this is seen, its important to wait for confirmation of the trend. This would be indicated by price breaking higher for an uptrend or lower for a downtrend, followed by both averages then starting to move in the same direction again.
At this point, we should say because of their calculation, moving averages do give lagging signals. In other words, ‘Price has to move to move a moving average’
So, you will see in both the Golden and Dead cross examples on the charts above, they come after either price strength or weakness has already developed.
However, while lagging in nature, moving averages give confirmation of a trend. This can highlight the potential of a move in price, in the direction of the moving average cross.
Being aware of the Golden and Dead crosses can be useful in highlighting possible trending conditions and when you may want to trade with the trend. This can provide you with more confidence that you could be active within a trending market, although this would depend on future price action.
Another Use of a Moving Average is to Highlight a Support and Resistance Level Within a Trend.
Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the Germany 40 index, but this time just using the 5 day moving average.
Notice, that when a correction is seen and prices sell-off but are still within the uptrend, it’s the rising 5 day average that can mark a support level, marked by the green arrows.
This may in turn see upside moves resume to continue the uptrend, with prices possibly breaking the previous high or resistance level to extend the uptrend.
Within a downtrend, the opposite is true.
A rally within a downtrend may find resistance at the declining 5 day moving average, from which price weakness is resumed to potentially extend the on-going downtrend, marked by the red arrows on the chart above.
So, this approach can be used in several ways to assist us when trading.
For instance, if we are positive of an instrument, within what may be suggested is an uptrend, but don’t yet have a position, we could view corrections back to the rising 5 day average as a move back to support.
Or, if we’re negative, but don’t yet have a position within a downtrend, a rally back to a declining 5 day moving average, may offer an opportunity at a higher level, as it could act as a resistance level, although this is not guaranteed.
Stop losses on long positions could also be placed just under a 5 day moving average, while stop losses on short positions could be placed just above a 5 day moving average. As moving average breaks may see a more extended move in the direction of that break. This may provide protection against possible adverse price movement.
A big advantage of this method of stop placement, is the stop loss moves or trails behind a rising average in an uptrend, or a declining average within a downtrend. This means when long in an uptrend, the stop follows prices higher. Or if short in a downtrend, the stop loss follows prices lower.
Observing Moving Averages in Real Time:
The Germany 40 index is likely to be in focus today with the ECB Interest rate decision released at 1315 GMT and then the ECB Press conference starting at 1345.
Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates by 25bps (0.25%), so anything else is likely to be a big surprise. However, could they cut by 50bps (0.5%) to try and give a major boost to the Eurozone economy?
After the announcement of the rate decision, Madame Lagarde’s comments in the press conference will also be important for the direction of the Germany 40. Will she confirm more interest rate cuts are a real possibility during the first quarter of 2025, or will she be more guarded, emphasising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation?
Whatever the outcome of these events, the Germany 40 may be more volatile than usual, so you can observe how these moving averages perform in real time.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth.
🎅 What Is the Santa Rally?
The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles.
The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect.
🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction?
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly):
Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office.
Not Guaranteed:
However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect).
🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen?
1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio.
2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher.
3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally.
4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings.
⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause
While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market.
🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched)
1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included).
2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence.
3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls.
4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends.
☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too?
The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions.
Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft.
🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice?
The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary.
So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
DeGRAM | GOLD pullback from resistanceGOLD is moving in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
We expect a pullback to the support level coinciding with the 50% retracement level
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Learn Best Price Action Patterns For Trend-Following Trading
In this educational articles, I will teach you the best price action patterns for Trend-Following Trading Forex.
📍Ascending & Descending Triangles
The ascending triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish.
The pattern consist of 2 main elements:
a horizontal neckline based on the equal highs,
a rising trend line based on the higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the level of the last higher low.
🎯Take profit is the next historical resistance.
Look at an ascending triangle formation on EURUSD on an hourly time frame.
On the left, you can see the structure of the pattern and on the right, the trading plan.
📍The descending triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish.
The pattern consist of 2 main elements:
a horizontal neckline based on the equal lows,
a falling trend line based on the lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the level of the last lower high.
🎯Take profit is the next historical support.
Above is a perfect descending triangle pattern that I spotted on GBPUSD on a 4H time frame.
📍Bullish & Bearish Wedges
The bullish wedge pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish and the pattern is directed to the downside.
The pattern consist of 2 contracting falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern.
Above is a falling wedge pattern that I found on GBPUSD.
The pattern is formed after a strong bullish impulse.
A trigger to buy is a bullish breakout of its resistance.
——————
The bearish wedge pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish and the pattern is directed to the upside.
The pattern consist of 2 contracting rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern.
To correctly sell this rising wedge pattern on EURUSD, we should wait for a breakout of its horizontal support and then sell the market on its retest.
📍Bullish & Bearish Flags
The bullish flag pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish and the pattern is directed to the downside.
The pattern consist of 2 parallel falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern.
Above, you can see a perfect example of a bullish flag pattern on EURUSD on a 4H time frame and its trading strategy.
——————
The bearish flag pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish and the pattern is directed to the upside.
The pattern consist of 2 parallel rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern.
Above is a bearish flag pattern on GBPUSD and a full plan to sell the market based on it.
📍Bullish & Bearish Symmetrical Triangles
The bullish symmetrical triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish.
The pattern consist of 2 contracting symmetrical trend lines based on the higher lows and lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the last higher low of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern.
This bullish symmetrical triangle on EURUSD on an hourly time frame is a perfect example of a bullish trend-following pattern.
——————
The bearish symmetrical triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish.
The pattern consist of 2 contracting symmetrical trend lines based on the higher lows and lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the last lower high of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern.
On the left chart, you can see a structure of a valid symmetrical triangle.
On the right chart, you can see how to trade it properly.
The main difficulty related to trading these patterns is their recognition. You should train your eyes to recognize them on a price chart.
Once you learn to do that, I guarantee you that you will make tons of money trading them.
Freshworks: Why you should consider this company as a good buy.Hello,
Today we shall be looking at Freshworks.
Freshworks, Inc. is a software development company, which engages in software-as-a-service products. Its products include Fresh desk, Fresh service, Fresh sales, Fresh marketer, and Fresh team. You can find more details on the company here www.tradingview.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown in chart below
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The price is correcting & forming a flat pattern
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- 0 crossover on MACD
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown in the chart below
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target at the top as shown
This is as shown here:
Third Quarter 2024 Financial Summary Results
Revenue: Total revenue was $186.6 million, representing growth of 22% compared to total revenue of $153.6 million in the third quarter of 2023, and 22% adjusting for constant currency.
GAAP (Loss) from Operations: GAAP (loss) from operations was $(38.9) million, compared to $(38.7) million in the third quarter of 2023.
GAAP Net (Loss) Per Share: GAAP basic and diluted net (loss) per share was $(0.10) based on 302.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $(0.11) based on 294.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2023.
Non-GAAP Net Income Per Share: Non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.11 based on 302.7 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $0.08 based on 302.6 million weighted-average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2023.
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: Net cash provided by operating activities was $42.3 million, compared to $23.9 million in the third quarter of 2023.
Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow was $40.1 million, compared to $22.1 million in the third quarter of 2023.
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities: Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $1.05 billion as of September 30, 2024.
To follow on company news see www.tradingview.com
Our recommendation
Freshworks is strategically positioned for future growth. Over the past five years, its revenue has consistently increased, and the company is showing promising signs of nearing profitability. Achieving profitability will unlock additional cash flow, enabling Freshworks to reinvest in its operations and expand into untapped markets, fueling long-term growth.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has been consolidating in a sideways correction over the past two years, reflecting a period of accumulation. Recent momentum peaked in October 2024 and the stock rose over 50% in a few days, with clear indications of a potential breakout as investor interest intensifies. In the shorter timeframe, a minor correction appears currently underway, presenting an attractive entry point for new investors around the $15 level. With a medium-term target of $24, this setup offers a compelling opportunity for value-seeking investors looking to capitalize on Freshworks' upward trajectory.
Our recommendation is a strong buy on this stock at the current areas with a target of $24 per share.
Current price: $16.41 (11th December 2024)
BBW: One of the Great Wealth Transfer BeneficiariesHey, all. Wanted to get a video made for the first time in a few weeks. I have a position in NYSE:BBW that has been doing well. In my opinion, this is a stock that is geared for further upside. Earnings have been coming in consistent and they have done a good job with their product offerings as I found out when visiting their website recently.
I do think NYSE:BBW can continue the growth, especially as more Millenials and Gen-Z have kids. The Baby Boomer generation will want to spend money on their grandkids and that should drive up cute stuffed animal sales. At any rate, please do your own research and invest carefully and wisely!
Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
Why we don't trust this bounce on AUD/JPYMy short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as anticipated.
MS
Lessons from the Hawk Tuah Meme Coin SagaThe recent collapse of the Hawk Tuah meme coin offers several valuable lessons for crypto investors, particularly regarding the risks associated with celebrity-backed tokens and meme coins. Here's a comprehensive look at the event and its implications:
What Happened?
Haliey Welch, a viral internet personality known as the “Hawk Tuah Girl,” launched her cryptocurrency, HAWK, on the Solana blockchain. Initially, the token skyrocketed in value, reaching a market cap of nearly $490 million within hours. However, the excitement was short-lived as the coin's value plummeted by over 90% shortly after its peak, resulting in massive losses for investors.
Investigations revealed suspicious activity, including a small group of wallets controlling 80-90% of the token's supply. These entities quickly sold their holdings after the price surged, a tactic commonly referred to as a Rug- Pull .
Welch has faced accusations of orchestrating the scheme, although she denies any wrongdoing
Key Takeaways for Investors
1. Avoid Hype-Driven Investments
Meme coins often rely on hype rather than fundamentals. The initial surge in HAWK’s value was fueled by Welch’s popularity and aggressive promotion, which masked its lack of intrinsic value.
2. Beware of Celebrity Endorsements
Celebrities frequently endorse or launch crypto projects, but their involvement doesn't guarantee legitimacy. Past incidents with figures like Kim Kardashian and Floyd Mayweather highlight a recurring pattern of failed celebrity-endorsed tokens
3. Understand the Token’s Structure
The dominance of a few wallets in HAWK’s ecosystem made the token vulnerable to manipulation. Always investigate the tokenomics of a project , including the distribution and control of its supply.
Recognize the Signs of a Rug Pull
- Rapid price surges followed by sharp declines
- Concentrated ownership by insiders or “snipers”
- Lack of a clear use case or roadmap
- Exercise Caution with New Tokens
*Newly launched coins are highly volatile and prone to exploitation. In the case of HAWK, the lack of regulatory oversight compounded the risks
Lessons for Regulators
The Hawk Tuah incident underscores the need for stricter oversight of crypto markets, especially celebrity-backed projects. While decentralized finance (DeFi) promotes inclusivity, its openness can be exploited. Regulators like the SEC are already investigating such cases, which may lead to stricter rules on token launches and promotions
Conclusion
The collapse of the Hawk Tuah coin serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of speculative investments in unregulated markets. While the allure of quick profits can be tempting, due diligence, skepticism of promotional tactics, and an understanding of market mechanics are crucial for navigating the crypto space.
Investors should remember: if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is . For long-term success in crypto, focus on projects with robust fundamentals, transparency, and proven utility.
The Nested PullbackPullbacks are a bread-and-butter pattern for anyone trading trends. A market moves with momentum, takes a breather, and then resumes its original direction. Today, we’re diving into a refined variation of this classic setup: the nested pullback.
What Is the Nested Pullback?
The nested pullback takes the traditional pullback and adds a twist. After the market initially pulls back and resumes its trend, a smaller, secondary pullback sometimes occurs during the continuation leg. It’s a minor pause within a larger trend, but it holds major significance for those seeking precision in both entries and trade management.
As depicted in the image below of Amazon's daily candle chart, we see an established uptrend, followed by a pullback. The trend resumes with strength, and crucially, we get a small pause—this creates the nested pullback pattern. It’s this compact formation within the broader move that makes it so effective, offering a structured opportunity for both entries and trade management.
This pattern is a prime example of how market structure and evolving price action can guide decision-making. It’s not just about spotting a pullback, it’s about understanding the conditions that create this nested structure and using it to your advantage.
Nested Pullback AMZN Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Why This Pattern Can Be So Effective
1. The Cyclical Nature of Volatility
Markets are inherently cyclical, with quiet periods followed by bursts of activity. The nested pullback leverages this dynamic, forming during the quieter phase before volatility picks up again. This makes it an excellent pattern for timing entries just as the market gears up for its next significant move.
2. Not All Pullbacks Are Equal
A key factor in the nested pullback’s effectiveness is that it often follows shallow pullbacks—those with significantly less strength than the preceding trend leg. This relative weakness signals that the underlying trend is strong, and the market is likely to continue moving in the same direction.
The nested pullback pattern isn’t new, but it gained wider recognition thanks to the work of trading authors like Adam Grimes and Linda Raschke. Their insights have helped countless traders incorporate this subtle pattern into their strategies.
How to Trade It
The beauty of the nested pullback is in its simplicity. If you missed the initial pullback entry, this pattern often offers a second chance to join the trend. The structure of the nested pullback allows you to define your risk clearly: stops can be placed just below the small range or flag that forms during the nested pullback. This tight stop placement provides a favourable risk-to-reward ratio, making it an appealing setup for traders.
Managing the trade is equally straightforward. Keltner Channels can be a valuable tool here. By setting the Keltner Channel to 2.5 ATRs around a 20-day exponential moving average (standard settings), you can identify areas where the market might be overextended. If you’re long and the price breaks above the upper Keltner Channel, it could be a strong signal to take profits into strength. This approach ensures that you’re capitalising on the move while avoiding the temptation to hold on too long in the face of potential reversals.
The nested pullback works particularly well in strong, trending markets. It often appears after breakouts or during continuation phases, giving traders a structured way to enter or manage positions confidently.
Example:
In the chart below, Gold is locked in a strong uptrend, with prices initially pulling back to the basis of the Keltner Channel. Following this pullback, the trend resumed, but not without a brief pause spanning two sessions—forming the nested pullback pattern. This pause presented an optimised entry point for traders looking to align with the prevailing trend.
As momentum continued, prices surged into the upper Keltner Channel, providing a clear signal that the market was potentially overextended. This area served as an excellent opportunity to exit the position into strength, locking in gains before any potential reversal.
Gold Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
The nested pullback is a subtle yet effective pattern that builds on the simplicity of traditional pullbacks. By understanding its structure and why it works, you can use it to refine your entries and strengthen your trade management. Whether you’re new to trading or a seasoned pro, this pattern offers a practical edge in trending markets.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Investing in Cybersecurity: PANW vs CRWD vs FTNT◉ Abstract
The cybersecurity landscape is rapidly evolving, with emerging threats and innovative solutions driving growth in the industry. This article examines the competitive dynamics between three leading cybersecurity stocks: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Fortinet (FTNT). As these companies sprint to become the top cybersecurity provider, we analyse their strengths, weaknesses, and strategies for success.
◉ Global Cybersecurity Market Overview
The global cybersecurity market has experienced significant growth and is projected to continue expanding in the coming years. As of 2023, the market was valued at approximately USD 192.4 billion and is expected to reach between USD 501 billion and USD 608 billion by 2033, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) ranging from 9% to 12% depending on the source and forecast period considered.
◉ Growth Drivers
1. Increasing Cyber Threats: The frequency and sophistication of cyber-attacks, including ransomware and data breaches, are rising, prompting organizations to enhance their security measures.
2. Digital Transformation: The rapid adoption of digital technologies, such as cloud computing and the Internet of Things (IoT), expands the attack surface and necessitates robust cybersecurity solutions.
3. Regulatory Compliance: Stricter regulations regarding data protection, like GDPR and CCPA, compel organizations to invest in cybersecurity to ensure compliance and protect sensitive information.
4. Proliferation of Smart Devices: The increasing use of connected devices in homes and industries creates more entry points for cyber threats, driving demand for advanced security solutions.
5. E-commerce Growth: The rise in online transactions increases the need for secure payment systems and data protection, further fuelling the cybersecurity market.
Remote Work Trends: The shift towards remote work has heightened the need for secure remote access solutions to protect organizational data from cyber threats.
◉ Regional Insights
● North America: This region dominates the global cybersecurity market, accounting for over 36% of the market share. The presence of major tech firms and a high incidence of cyber threats contribute to its leadership position.
● Europe: The European market is also growing rapidly due to increased digital transformation efforts and regulatory pressures that emphasize data security.
● Asia-Pacific: Expected to exhibit the fastest growth rate during the forecast period, driven by industrialization, rising internet penetration, and awareness of cybersecurity risks.
◉ Major Players in the Cybersecurity Market
1. Palo Alto Networks NASDAQ:PANW - $132.7 B
2. CrowdStrike Holdings NASDAQ:CRWD - $89.7 B
3. Fortinet NASDAQ:FTNT - $75.26 B
In this comparative analysis we are focused to provide a detailed understanding of the competitive dynamics of three cybersecurity giants: Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike Holdings, and Fortinet.
◉ Company Overviews
● Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a leading provider of cybersecurity solutions worldwide. The company offers a range of products and services, including network security platforms, cloud security solutions, security operation solutions, subscription services, and professional services. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Palo Alto Networks was incorporated in 2005 and has since become a trusted partner for organizations seeking to protect themselves from cyber threats.
● CrowdStrike Holdings
CrowdStrike provides cloud-delivered cybersecurity solutions, offering endpoint, cloud workload, identity, and data protection. Its Falcon platform provides various security services, including threat intelligence, vulnerability management, and AI-powered workflow automation. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, CrowdStrike was incorporated in 2011.
● Fortinet
Fortinet, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. The company provides comprehensive cybersecurity and converged networking and security solutions worldwide. Its offerings include secure networking solutions, network firewall solutions, wireless LAN solutions, and secure connectivity solutions. Additionally, Fortinet provides Unified SASE solutions, security operations solutions, and a range of security services and support. The company serves a diverse customer base, including enterprises, service providers, governments, and small and medium-sized businesses.
◉ Strategic Growth Initiatives of Leading Cybersecurity Players
● Palo Alto Networks
1. Platformization: Transitioning from a traditional firewall vendor to a comprehensive cybersecurity platform provider, offering a wider range of security solutions.
2. Next-Generation Security: Continuing to deliver advanced security solutions to address evolving cyber threats.
● CrowdStrike
1. Innovation: Leveraging AI-powered capabilities to enhance the Falcon platform and maintain a competitive edge in the cybersecurity market.
2. Expansion: Expanding into adjacent markets, such as cloud security and identity protection, to broaden its customer base and product offerings.
● Fortinet
1. "Rule of 45" Framework: Adhering to the "Rule of 45" framework to balance revenue growth with profitability, ensuring a sustainable business model.
2. Product Refresh Cycle: Implementing a strategic product refresh cycle to drive upgrade activity among existing customers and stimulate revenue growth.
◉ Technical Standings
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ The stock has been on a strong upward trajectory, marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
➖ Following a significant breakout last month, it is currently trading at an all-time high, with expectations for further increases.
● CrowdStrike Holdings
➖ In general, this stock is trending upward, although it has faced considerable price volatility over an extended period.
➖ After reaching an all-time high close to the 400 mark, it underwent a sharp correction.
However, the stock is now climbing again and nearing its previous peak.
● Fortinet
➖ This stock had undergone a lengthy consolidation phase lasting nearly three years, resulting in the development of a Broadening pattern.
➖ After a recent breakout, the price is now targeting new highs.
◉ Relative Strength
➖ The chart clearly demonstrates Fortinet's exceptional performance, showcasing an impressive return of nearly 88%. In comparison, Mastercard and Visa have generated returns of 53% and 41%, respectively.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Palo Alto Networks
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ In FY24, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) celebrated an impressive revenue surge of 16.5%, achieving $8,027 million, a notable increase from $6,893 million in FY23.
➖ The EBITDA for FY24 also experienced a substantial boost, reaching $1,094 million, up from $590 million in FY23.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the most recent October quarter, PANW reported revenues of $2,139 million, a slight dip from the $2,190 million recorded in July 2024. However, this still represents a year-over-year growth of nearly 14% from $1,878 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The company also reported its highest-ever EBITDA of $413 million in October, an increase from $314 million in July 2024. Compared to the same quarter last year, this figure has risen by almost 20% from $279.5 million.
➖ In October, the diluted EPS rose to $7.69 (LTM), up from $7.28 (LTM) in July 2024, marking an extraordinary year-over-year increase of 333% from $1.78 (LTM).
● CrowdStrike
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ CrowdStrike (CRWD) saw a robust revenue growth of 36.3% in FY23, reaching $3,055 million, up from $2,241 million in FY22.
➖ Conversely, the EBITDA for FY24 has seen a decline, reporting $106 million, down from $118 million in FY23.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest October quarter, CRWD's revenue rose to $1,010 million, compared to $964 million in July 2024. This reflects a year-over-year increase of nearly 28.5% from $786 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The EBITDA for the most recent June quarter was $15.3 million, showing a significant drop from $52.4 million in July 2024.
➖ In October, the diluted EPS decreased to $0.51 (LTM), down from $0.69 (LTM) in July 2024.
● Fortinet
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ In fiscal year 2023, Fortinet reported a remarkable revenue increase of 20%, reaching $5,304 million, up from $4,417 million in fiscal year 2022.
➖ The EBITDA also saw a significant rise, with the 2023 fiscal year totaling $1,350 million, compared to $1,070 million the previous year.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest September quarter, revenue continued to grow, hitting $1,508 million, an increase from $1,434 million in June 2024. This represents a substantial year-over-year growth of nearly 13% from $1,335 million.
➖ Furthermore, EBITDA for the September quarter neared $500 million, up from $465 million in the prior quarter, reflecting an impressive increase of nearly 51% from $330 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a significant increase in September, rising to $0.7 (LTM) from $0.5 (LTM) in June 2024, marking a notable jump of 70% compared to $0.41 (LTM) in the same quarter last year.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ PANW stands at a P/E ratio of 48.6x.
➖ CRWD is at a P/E ratio of 707.9x.
➖ FTNT shows a P/E ratio of 49.2x.
◾ These numbers indicate that CRWD is considerably overvalued when compared to its competitors.
● P/B Ratio
➖ PANW's P/B ratio stands at 22.5x.
➖ CRWD's P/B ratio is 29.3x.
➖ On the other hand, FTNT's P/B ratio is significantly higher at 82.9x.
◾ FTNT's high P/B ratio may indicate overvaluation, but its asset-light business model reduces the significance of this metric.
● PEG Ratio
➖ PANW boasts a PEG ratio of 0.14.
➖ CRWD's PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66.
➖ FTNT, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 1.26.
◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that PANW is currently undervalued relative to its peers.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
➖ PANW has achieved an impressive operating cash flow of $3,257 million for the fiscal year 2024, a substantial rise from $2,777 million in fiscal year 2023.
➖ In a similar vein, CRWD has also seen a positive trend in its operating cash flow, which has climbed to $1,166 million in fiscal year 2024, compared to $941 million the year before.
➖ Furthermore, FTNT has reported a remarkable increase in its operating cash flow, growing from $1,730 million in fiscal year 2022 to $1,935 million in fiscal year 2023.
◉ Debt Analysis
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.1 as of October 2024, indicating a stable financial structure.
➖ Total Debt: About $645 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $5,911 million.
◾ PANW's ratio reflects a cautious debt approach, balancing equity and debt financing, with net debt well-supported by operating cash flow, enhancing financial stability.
● CrowdStrike
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.24.
➖ Total Debt: $743 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $3,096 million.
◾ CRWD's ratio suggests a thoughtful strategy regarding debt, maintaining a balance between equity and debt financing.
● Fortinet
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 1.1, indicating a significant level of debt relative to equity.
➖ Total Debt: $993 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $908 million.
◾ FTNT’s ratio shows a considerable reliance on debt financing, which can facilitate growth but also introduces risks related to interest obligations.
◉ Top Shareholders
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ The Vanguard Group has significantly increased its investment in Palo Alto Networks, now holding an impressive 9.13% stake, which marks a 1.53% rise from the last quarter.
➖ In comparison, Blackrock holds a notable 7.65% share in the company.
● CrowdStrike
➖ Turning to CrowdStrike, The Vanguard Group has also enhanced its position, elevating its ownership to an impressive 8.76%, reflecting a 1.84% increase since the previous quarter.
➖ Conversely, Blackrock possesses a considerable 7.35% stake.
● Fortinet
➖ Regarding Fortinet, The Vanguard Group commands a substantial 8.79% share in the firm.
➖ In contrast, Blackrock holds a 7.44% stake.
◉ Conclusion
After conducting an exhaustive analysis of the major players in the cybersecurity sector, which included an in-depth look at both technical features and financial reports, we have determined that although Palo Alto Networks (PANW) might seem more appealing in terms of valuation, Fortinet (FTNT) stands out as the leading candidate in the industry due to its solid financials. Although concerns about debt exist, the company's strong cash reserves mitigate these worries significantly.
On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) has faced a recent setback with an outage that has shaken investor trust, leading to a decline in its stock price and rendering it a less favourable investment option for the foreseeable future.
Moreover, the cybersecurity sector is set to grow significantly due to rising cyber threats, fast-paced technology changes, and stricter regulations. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research, define clear investment goals, and maintain a long-term outlook to take advantage of this growth while minimizing risks.
Reserve Rights Posts Surprise 200% Rally in 2 Days. What’s RSR?We’re in that period of the cycle where crypto is never dull. Amid all the hype of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 (spectacular in and of itself), a fairly small token is skyrocketing 200%, hitting a $1.2 billion market cap, and clawing its way into the Top 100 .
The trigger? Donald Trump. The President-elect has tapped a very special figure to become boss of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The crypto world welcomes Paul Atkins, a former SEC commissioner and a crypto bro. He has quietly been advising that same token we're talking about — Reserve Rights RSRUSD .
RSR in Plain English
Reserve Rights RSRUSD is a volatile coin part of a two-token stablecoin project built on Ethereum. Its mission? To help create a stable, decentralized currency that can replace volatile fiat currencies, especially in economies plagued by hyperinflation. Think Venezuela or Zimbabwe — places where you have to drop a pile of cash to purchase a cup of coffee.
The Reserve ecosystem uses two tokens:
Reserve Dollar (RSV) - A stablecoin pegged to a basket of assets like fiat, commodities and other cryptos. This is your boring, stable bud.
Reserve Right (RSR) - The volatile counterpart. RSR is used to maintain RSV’s peg and offers governance rights. It’s also the token that traders bet on, as seen by its recent moonshot.
What makes Reserve Rights interesting to traders and investors is its vision of financial inclusion. It aims to give everyday people in struggling economies a reliable alternative to crumbling national currencies, without needing to trust a central bank. Lofty? Yes. Achievable? That’s where the intrigue lies.
Enter Paul Atkins: Crypto’s Quiet Ally
Paul Atkins isn’t a stranger to regulation. As a former SEC commissioner, he earned a reputation for being pro-business and wary of regulatory overreach. Since leaving the SEC in 2008, Atkins has been advising banks, trading firms, fintech companies, and — since 2017 — crypto projects and crypto companies, including Reserve Rights.
If Atkins takes the SEC’s reins (there’s been some talk he’s a bit hesitant), it could mark a seismic shift in US crypto regulation. More like… deregulation. Atkins has long advocated for a more nuanced approach to digital assets, favoring innovation over stifling rules.
This doesn’t really mean anything for Reserve Rights. It’s just a project Atkins happens to have worked on. No official comments have been made as to whether this crypto would get any special treatment by the SEC under Atkins. In fact, all crypto could get vaulted to smoother paths to compliance and wider adoption.
One thing, however, could justify RSR’s explosive rally. Traders are likely imagining a world where the SEC supports projects like Reserve instead of slapping them with lawsuits (like Ripple’s XRP). It’s a potential regulatory dream scenario.
Why the Market Reacted So Strongly
But let’s get back to the updraft and the token's well-deserved place among crypto's Top Gainers : RSR’s 200% rally last week propelled the price from $0.009 to $0.026 in just a couple days. Tiny in price terms, but that’s because there are 53 billion tokens in circulation out of 100 billion max supply. Where you need to look is the market cap. And that’s grand — it shot up to $1.4 billion from less than $500 million.
All that good stuff wasn’t because the token suddenly discovered cold fusion. Markets move on perception, and Atkins’ crypto-friendly stance is a big deal. Traders see him as the potential captain who might steer the SEC ship away from stormy anti-crypto waters and into the cool breeze of loose regulatory guardrails.
The Catch: Real vs. Hyped Value
Before you mortgage your house for RSR ( don’t do it ), a dose of skepticism is in order. While Paul Atkins is undeniably crypto-friendly, his potential appointment doesn’t guarantee a green light for Reserve Rights or any specific project. Regulatory changes take time, and the crypto market generally likes to run ahead of events.
RSR’s fundamentals haven’t changed overnight. That makes the pump forward-looking, driven by headlines rather than anything concrete like adoption or utility metrics.
But even without Atkins in the chair, Reserve Rights has carved out a niche for itself since its launch in 2019.
What’s Your Move?
RSR’s recent rally might be tempting, but as any tried-and-tested trader will tell you, hype-driven moves are a double-edged sword. If you believe in Reserve’s mission and the potential for a crypto-friendly SEC, consider it a long-term bet. If you’re just chasing the pump, tread carefully — crypto has a way of humbling the overconfident.
So, what’s your move? Is RSR a hidden gem or just another token riding the wave of speculation? Let’s hear your thoughts — drop them in the comments below.