Grasping Forex Volatility: How to Trade in Choppy & Calm WatersWhen it comes to the forex market , volatility isn’t just a side effect—it’s the main event. The constant ebb and flow of currency prices can be exhilarating or exasperating, depending on how good you are.
Volatility can shift from a calm sea to a rogue wave, often without warning, leaving traders either riding high or clutching their lifebuoys. To help you navigate the forex waters like a pro, especially if you’re a newcomer, we’ve whipped up this Idea with some key insights and revelations.
The Art of Trading During High Volatility
High volatility tends to be thrilling—big price swings, rapid moves, and plenty of adrenaline. For the well-prepared trader, these market conditions are like surfacing a giant wave; the payoff can be huge, but it demands skill, timing, and control.
Why High Volatility Happens
Interest rate announcements, economic releases, geopolitical turmoil—high-impact events send volatility soaring. During these times, spreads can widen, price slippage creeps in, and liquidity often gets tighter, making precision essential. While the reward potential is high, the risks are right there with it. Think of high-volatility periods as power tools; they’re incredibly effective in the right hands but can quickly cause damage if used recklessly.
Strategizing in the Fast Lane
When volatility spikes, flexibility is key. One popular approach is to shorten your trading timeframe. Rather than holding out for the moon, focus on capturing smaller, rapid gains and set tighter stop-loss levels to limit downside. Pay attention to the economic calendar —if the Federal Reserve is set to speak, or if non-farm payrolls data is due, get ready to adapt fast. And if you’re following price trends, make sure to use a healthy dose of confirmation bias: watch those moving averages , MACD signals , and RSI readings , and let them do their job before you jump in.
Finding Opportunity in Low Volatility Markets
At the opposite end of the spectrum, low volatility often gets a bad rap. Price moves seem sluggish, the market consolidates, and excitement seems as far away as Friday on a Monday. But low volatility doesn’t mean no opportunity. It simply requires a shift in tactics.
Why Markets Go Quiet
Periods of low volatility often occur in the absence of major news or when traders are holding back, waiting for an upcoming event. These consolidating markets are common around holidays, just before important announcements, or in times of economic stability.
Reading Between the Lines
Trading in a low-volatility environment means you’re often dealing with range-bound markets. Here, the game is all about patience and precision. Use support and resistance levels as guardrails—when prices reach the top of a range, it’s often time to sell; when they reach the bottom, consider buying.
But a word to the wise: low volatility doesn’t stay that way forever. A period of consolidation can quickly give way to breakout action. Keep an eye on breakout indicators like Bollinger Bands ; when they start expanding, it might signal the market’s about to wake up from its nap.
Choosing the Right Pair
Certain currency pairs are naturally more volatile than others. Major pairs like EUR/USD , GBP/USD , and USD/JPY see consistent action due to their high trading volume, but if you’re hunting high-pitch volatility, take a look at pairs like GBP/JPY , EUR/JPY , or any pair involving emerging market currencies like the Mexican Peso or South African Rand. Keep in mind, though, that with higher volatility comes a need for tighter risk control.
On the other hand, when markets are in a lull, the majors are often your best bet. During low-volatility periods, the big, liquid pairs are less prone to the kind of wild fluctuations that can eat away at gains. Trading low-volatility pairs in a low-volatility market can keep you out of whipsaw territory and add some consistency to your returns.
Leverage: Powerful yet Dangerous, and Not Always Your Friend
Let’s get something straight: leverage in a high-volatility market can be like playing with fireworks. It’s all great until you get burned. When markets are moving fast, a little leverage goes a long way, but too much can quickly wipe out gains (and accounts). Dialing down leverage during volatile times can keep your trade within control without losing out on potential returns.
In low-volatility markets, leverage might seem tempting as a way to amplify those smaller moves. But here’s the catch—just because volatility is low doesn’t mean you’re free from risk. Markets can turn on a dime, and it’s always better to live to trade another day. Use leverage sparingly, no matter what the market mood may be.
Liquidity: The Grease That Keeps the Forex Machine Running Smoothly
If volatility is the main character, then liquidity is the supporting cast, keeping everything steady when the markets get choppy. High liquidity—think major pairs like euro-dollar and dollar-yen—means your orders are filled fast and spreads stay tight, giving you a bit of breathing room. But liquidity can shrink fast in low-volume sessions, during major events, or with exotic pairs. That’s when spreads can widen unexpectedly, slippage sneaks in, and you might get more excitement than you bargained for.
When volatility is high, liquidity can drop as big players step back, causing prices to jump erratically between buy and sell points. If you’re trading into the storm, consider the liquidity squeeze a warning: stick with high-liquidity pairs, watch those spreads, and avoid getting caught in thin markets. In fast-moving conditions, liquidity is your safety net, so stick with the pairs that offer deeper pools of it.
In low-volatility markets, liquidity is usually stable. With tighter spreads and less risk of slippage, low-volatility conditions let you plan range-bound trades with more confidence. It’s one of the perks of low volatility: while big moves may be rare, the market structure tends to hold, keeping your trades smoother and more predictable.
The Bottom Line: Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword
High or low, volatility is something every trader has to contend with. The key is to approach it with strategy, patience, and adaptability. Anyway, here’s the advice you didn’t ask for: in high-volatility times, trade quickly, tighten your stops, and keep your leverage modest. In low-volatility environments, embrace the calm, focus on range trading, and don’t fall asleep on potential breakout signals.
The forex market rewards those who play by its rules, adapt to its moods, and respect its risks. So, what kind of trader are you? Do you chase the thrill of big moves, or find comfort in the steadiness of a quiet market? Share your thoughts below!
Community ideas
Mercedes-Benz group AG- An opportunity to buy/Average down.Hello,
Today we will be looking at a buy opportunity from Mercedes solely using the tools available on Tradingview.
Mercedes-Benz Group AG engages in the business of manufacturing and distributing premium cars. It operates through the following segments: Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Mobility. The Mercedes-Benz Cars segment includes the brands Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, and Mercedes-EQ. All this is found in overview section www.tradingview.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The stock has corrected and is at the bottom of a flat pattern
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- The indicator is confirming purchase. Zero crossover on MACD soon. (MACD) is a technical indicator to help investors identify entry points for buying or selling
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- Future wave as shown
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price EUR 76 (A good stock to buy/average down)
Key highlights from the Mercedes-Benz Group's Q3 2024 interim report
Revenue: €34.5 billion in Q3 2024, a 7% decrease compared to Q3 2023. For the first nine months, revenue totalled €107.14 billion, down by 5%.
Net Profit: €1.7 billion in Q3, down by 54%, and €7.7 billion over nine months, a 31% reduction.
Mercedes-Benz Cars: Unit sales were down by 1% to 503,600 vehicles in Q3. Electrified vehicle sales fell by 15%, and BEV sales dropped by 31%.
Mercedes-Benz Vans: Sales declined by 13% to 91,100 units in Q3. Electrified van sales also decreased by 31%.
Mercedes-Benz Mobility: New financing and leasing contracts fell by 14% compared to Q3 2023
R&D expenditure increased by 13% to €2.9 billion in Q3, with a focus on digitalization and electrification
Company highlights can be found on the statements section or the news flow section www.tradingview.com
Next earnings report date: February 13, 2025 (Q4 report 2024) The next earnings date can be found for each company www.tradingview.com
Opportunities
Mercedes-Benz is a globally recognized and respected brand in premium and luxury automobiles, giving it some resilience against fluctuations in car sales.
The company’s strong focus on research and development, especially in electric powertrains, positions it well for growth as clean-air regulations continue to tighten worldwide.
Management’s long-term goals for return on sales indicate that there is opportunity for further growth, suggesting potential upside to valuation.
Risks to consider
The global premium car market is highly competitive, and consumers have many choices, making it easy for them to switch between brands.
The auto industry faces increasing global overcapacity, leading to pricing pressure. Given its capital-intensive nature, achieving strong economic returns over a 10-year period remains challenging.
While Mercedes has maintained good union relations with its German workforce, union influence is substantial, with employees electing half of the supervisory board members. This strong union presence can limit profit margins due to wage demands during prosperous times and work rules that reduce flexibility in manufacturing.
Our recommendation
Since November 2021, Mercedes-Benz stock has traded in a sideways range between EUR 52 and EUR 76. Despite this, the company remains a globally recognized premium and luxury brand. This positioning continues to provide resilience against high sales fluctuations, making it a standout in the competitive global luxury car market. Mercedes-Benz Cars continue to face weaker macroeconomic conditions and fierce competition, mainly in Asia. The company is actively undertaking a share buyback. In Q4 2024 the Mercedes-Benz Group opened Europe’s first battery recycling factory in Kuppenheim, southern Germany. Valuable, limited raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt can be recovered and are to be used to manufacture new battery cells for Mercedes-Benz vehicles. This buyback, along with the company’s strong positioning and stock’s trading range, presents a potential buying opportunity with a target price of EUR 76 despite the weak Q3 results. Our recommendation is buy/Average down. Mercedes-Benz’s commitment to research and development, particularly in electric powertrains, positions it advantageously for growth amid tightening clean-air regulations worldwide.
Goodluck & all the best.
Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Major Crash? Warning Signs Ahead!👀👉 Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surged to all-time highs, but is the rally about to reverse? On the 1M monthly timeframe, a key horizontal resistance level is flashing warning signals. BTC appears heavily overbought, and the trend shows clear signs of overextension.
📉 Using advanced trading concepts like Wyckoff theory and ICT methodology, this video breaks down:
- How historical price action reveals similar overextended moves that led to significant pullbacks.
- Why the Fibonacci tool suggests a potential retracement to equilibrium after a parabolic price swing.
- The lack of smart money accumulation since the last major price breakout, signaling potential vulnerabilities.
🔍 We’ll examine two key scenarios:
1. Bearish Opportunity: If price action breaks structure and takes out existing range lows, it could signal a deeper correction.
2. Bullish Opportunity: If BTC trades into a discounted zone below equilibrium, this could present a strong buy opportunity for longer-term positioning.
📊 This analysis is for educational purposes only and highlights the importance of managing risk in a market known for its volatility. Past performance is no guarantee of future results—trade wisely and always assess your risk tolerance!
👉 Don’t miss this critical breakdown. Learn how to read the charts like a pro and prepare for what’s next in Bitcoin’s journey!📊
Tesla's Next Move: Will 360 Be the Target, or Are We Going LowerGood evening, trading family.
Tesla is at an exciting crossroads, and we’re keeping a close eye on the key levels ahead. Let’s break it down:
Upside Potential:
325: First step if the market pushes upward.
338: A critical resistance—breaking this could lead to 360+.
Downside Risks:
298: A potential level for support if we pull back.
287: A deeper support level if selling continues.
At the MindBloome Exchange, we care about your success. Trade what you see, stay patient, and let the levels guide you.
Kris / Mindbloome Trading
AUD/USD Reaches New Low: Technicals Highlight Bearish TrendThe AUD/USD pair has sunk below 0.65000, hitting a low of 0.64529, reflecting a persistent bearish trend for the Australian dollar. This decline aligns with the strong US dollar index at 106.4 amidst robust post-election performance. The RBA's steady interest rate at 4.35% and lackluster employment growth in Australia indicate ongoing economic pressures that may limit the Aussie’s recovery. Meanwhile, anticipated rate cuts by the Fed could introduce USD vulnerabilities, adding complexity to the pair's future trajectory. Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank policies in both regions for potential market shifts.
The TradingView Show: Strategy Session with OKX Product PartnerWelcome, TradingViewers! 🚀
Get ready for an exciting and educational live stream designed to empower traders of all levels! In this broadcast, we’ll dive deep into markets starting with a top down research process, looking at the macro picture first, then zooming in to the moves that are shaping markets right now. We'll also dive into Pine Script, the election, recent moves as the year comes to an end, and much more.
Our partner OKX has brought on one of their product partners to walk our audience through the charts. Remember: OKX is a partner and integrated broker of ours. Connect your OKX account to your TradingView account to get started by clicking the Trading Panel below the chart.
Here’s what we’ll cover:
1. Top-Down Market Research: Start with a macro view of the markets and learn how to break down the big picture to make better, more informed trading decisions.
2. Crypto Market Updates: Get the latest insights and analysis on cryptocurrencies and what’s driving the market right now.
3. Pine Script Deep Dive: Learn how to leverage Pine Script to enhance your trading strategies and build custom indicators on TradingView.
4. Trading the Election & Year-End Moves: Understand how political events and seasonal market shifts are influencing price action as we approach the end of the year.
5. Live Q&A: Have your trading questions answered in real time by industry experts, and get tailored advice to level up your trading skills.
Follow OKX on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Sit back, ask questions, and enjoy the show! Please note: This show is only for education and entertainment.
XAU/USD : CPI is coming, Bull or Bear ?Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after entering the highlighted demand zone, gold has delivered a return of over 270 pips so far and is currently trading around $2611.
It’s important to note that today we have the CPI data release, which could significantly impact gold prices. If the CPI figures come in higher than expected, we’re likely to see further declines in gold, and vice versa if the data comes in lower.
Key demand zones remain at $2586-$2593 and $2555-$2562, while important supply zones are $2610, $2619-$2626, and $2643. Additionally, the recent sharp declines in gold have created several liquidity gaps, marked in purple on the chart, which are expected to be filled in the medium term as the price recovers.
Stay cautious and keep an eye on these levels, as well as the CPI announcement, for potential trading opportunities!
The Last Analysis :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
AUD/USD sinks to new lows as focus shifts to Aussie jobs dataWhether you’re talking price action or momentum, AUD/USD looks terrible on the daily, taking out the intersection of the US election lows and downtrend support with ease on Wednesday.
Momentum is with the bears; RSI (14) has cut its uptrend like a hot knife through butter while MACD has crossed over from above, confirming the bearish signal. Selling rips and bearish breaks may prove more successful than buying dips in this environment.
The short setup would be to sell here or wait for a potential squeeze towards .6513 as traders anticipate another stellar labour force report – there have been plenty of those recently. That would allow for a tight stop to be placed above the level, providing appealing risk-reward for those targeting a retest of key uptrend support at .6375.
The last time the Aussie interacted with the level during the Japanese market meltdown of August, it resulted in significant bullish reversal, underlining its technical importance. As such, it looms as an obvious target.
Good luck!
DS
What if the USD rally is only just getting started?The USD rally has entered its seventh week and continues to defy its seasonal tendency to weaken in Q4. And that is simply because the macro backdrop 'Trumps' its average performance this time of the year. Today I take a step back to admire the bigger-picture view of the USD index, to show why I think this rally could still just be getting started.
MS
Verizon: Weak in a Strong MarketThe S&P 500 just had its biggest weekly rally in a year, but Verizon Communications didn’t participate. Are the bears moving in?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the trio of drops following the last three quarterly reports. Those may reflect weakening sentiment towards the telecom’s fundamentals.
Second, VZ peaked below $45.55 in late September. That was a long-term low from May 2022, which may suggest old support has become new resistance.
Next, VZ has chopped around its 2023 high of $42.58 but is now below it. That could be a sign of resistance taking hold.
Fourth, last week’s slide below the 200-day simple moving average could mark an end to its longer-term uptrend.
Finally, MACD is falling.
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Dogecoin Outpaces Bitcoin with 180% Post-Election Boom. When $1?In a much-wow fashion, Dogecoin DOGEUSD broke out of the pack with a 180% post-election rally. It did way better than Bitcoin BTCUSD . But what’s really behind the speculative gains and is there more room for growth? Like, say, can Dogecoin hit $1? It’s a possibility. Let’s dig into it.
We’ve all heard about Bitcoin BTCUSD — the orange coin that shook up the fabric of global financial markets and rewired how we think about money and investments. But a small yet mighty cryptocurrency is befriending the small yet ambitious trader.
Dogecoin DOGEUSD , the people’s digital asset and Elon Musk’s favorite coin, has posted some howling returns after Election Day vaulted Donald Trump to the top job in American politics. The Shiba Inu-themed coin has soared 180% since November 5, outperforming the big guy Bitcoin with its 30% rise for the same time span.
How did that happen? It’s mostly Elon Musk and his lofty aspirations for Dogecoin. “Supporting Doge wherever possible,” the Tesla boss said back in 2022. Conveniently placed front and center for the meme-loving crowds, this iconic meme token is easy to scoop up in boatloads, empowering retail investors with a feeling of accomplishment. Dogecoin’s price was last seen floating near 40 cents, up from 15 cents before the election result.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is priced at just under $90,000 , powering higher in a record-setting run, and that makes it look much less affordable and less likely to appeal to retail traders. But looking at the plain price tag is misleading without factoring in the market cap, which shows you how much the token is worth.
In Dogecoin’s case, the 40 cents translate to something big. It’s no joke. Even though the sole purpose of Dogecoin was to be a joke. Back in 2013, Dogecoin was created as a satirical homage to Bitcoin. But if that coin back then had a puppy-like valuation of a couple millions, today it’s a $60 billion unleashed beast that's ready to chew up and spit out your portfolio. It holds about 2% dominance of the overall crypto market cap and it's worth more than Ford F , which churns out annual revenue of $180 billion and boasts a 121-year history.
Now digital-asset enthusiasts, especially the Dogecoiners around, are pinning their hopes on the iconic duo in the making — Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The two billionaires have apparently teamed up for the good of the crypto industry. Long story short — traders are betting on a crypto boom under President-elect Donald Trump.
And Dogecoin might get pulled into the mix. Elon Musk has already openly stated he’d be happy to get involved with politics. But not just any politics. DOGE politics. And it’s official — Trump said late Tuesday he’s tapping Elon Musk to lead a new department aptly called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. The Tesla CEO will be joined by Republican presidential candidate Strive Asset Management co-founder Vivek Ramaswamy.
“I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”),” Trump said in the announcement , posted on his social media platform Truth Social.
The duo is teaming up to “pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies,” the President-elect added.
All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency,” Musk said on his X platform . “Anytime the public thinks we are cutting something important or not cutting something wasteful, just let us know! We will also have a leaderboard for the most insanely dumb spending of your tax dollars. This will be both extremely tragic and extremely entertaining 🤣🤣”
Given Musk’s unfaltering devotion to Dogecoin, it’s not unrealistic to predict a function for his beloved token in the newly-whipped-up department. In this context, a $1 price tag, according to many crypto faithful, might actually come to fruition at some point in the foreseeable future, propelling the cryptocurrency to a $130 billion market cap.
But with all that hype, it could be difficult to go beyond the chatter and think clearly. And on the flip side, it may look easy to buy a dog-themed coin and retrieve some of those gains you see on the screen. Be careful, though — chasing down that game could lead to Great Dane-gers.
Do you own any Doge? Or are you looking to buy if you’ve missed out on the red-hot beast-mode rally? Share your thoughts below and let’s spin up the discussion!
Gold soybean oil Monday Friday I posted that the goal was likely to go lower because the market Gap lower and even though the market went higher from its low it couldn't close the gap and that tells me that the markets likely to go to new lows even though it might temporarily shows some buying Behavior. that's what it did and it went even a few $1000 lower since the close of Friday and it still might go lower since there's no evidence of buyers even though the market is at a support resistance line. I think the unrealized drawdown from the high is 20,000 or so dollars and that does not make this Market bearish and if it goes lower as I suspect it will go lower.the market is Trading with significant volatility and expansion and that means the market is going to have bigger moves when it moves higher and bigger moves when it moves lower compared to markets that have very little volatility and very small range. I did not address this in the video because the video was on the laborious side.... sorry about that. it satis support resistance line, it has not closed an important Gap lower.... so it could go higher or lower but I think it's probably going to go lower. and a good portion of that analysis is that gold has been so bullish for a significant. Of time..... I think the sellers are ultimately going to push this a little bit lower and this can be very profitable for the smart money because the market is going to take out some of the late buyers who like to trade all-time highs which is a very difficult way to make money because this pattern suggests that a lot of people who were break out buyers are in trouble with their long trades because they got in to late. now if you have a lot of money and you think the markets going to find buyers and make new highs... maybe you can hold out and maintain your long position but if you got into this Market on the Breakout move higher and you're down $25,000 per contract because you were just too late.... it just think how you're going to feel if it goes down another $25,000 before it starts turning and going higher
Dow Jones H1 | Falling to pullback supportDow Jones (US30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 43,909.20 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 43,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 44,527.74 which is a swing-high resistance at the all-time high.
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NVIDIA is Poised to Reach $200NVIDIA is Poised to Reach $200
NVIDIA finally broke through its all-time high, which was reached on June 20, 2024, at $140.50.
For about 110 days, the price has been developing a larger triangle pattern, accumulating bullish momentum.
So far we have a clear bullish breakout and the price seems poised to reach $200.
However, the first reasonable target I am looking at is near to $170.
We should analyze it again later as long as the price is developing.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TSLA - Use Technical principles To Help With Investment IdeaA look at TSLA & how technical analysis can be helpful in your decision making even if you're a longer-term investor.
In this video we take a look at a Butterfly pattern on Tesla and walk through what opportunities it presents for both bullish & bearish traders/investors.
Please leave any questions or comments below & I wish you guys a great trading week.
Akil
Ethereum Retail Investor Count Surges by 3.3 MillionEthereum Retail Investor Count Surges by 3.3 Million: The Road to an Altcoin Bull Run?
Analyzing Changes in Ethereum's Retail Investor Count
Over the past 60 days, we’ve observed a notable increase in the number of Ethereum retail investors. While the percentage increase may seem modest at 2.77%, this translates to approximately 3.3 million new retail addresses. With this rise over the past two months, the total number of retail investor addresses has reached 125.18 million.
Could Retail Investors Be the Catalyst for a Bull Market?
To answer this briefly: Yes.
In a bull run, new investors entering the market are expected to drive a significant increase in demand. When supply is limited or relatively scarce, as with Ethereum, this demand surge is anticipated to lead to a substantial price increase. Given that Ethereum is often seen as the “father of altcoins,” this trend holds even greater importance.
Why Is This So Significant?
The Key to an Altcoin Rally: Ethereum
Recently, Ethereum's price performance has lagged behind Bitcoin. In the last six months, for example, Bitcoin has gained 33%, while Ethereum's return has only been 10%. This discrepancy has left many altcoin investors disappointed. However, with Bitcoin dominance receding, we’re seeing Ethereum come back into the spotlight. Over the past week, while Bitcoin has risen around 19%, Ether has gained over 29%.
Following Ethereum's rally, the entire altcoin market is experiencing a period of relief and upward movement. This is why Ethereum's price trends and volatility are crucial for a potential altcoin bull run. Monitoring on-chain data here can provide critical insights.
How Can We Track This Data?
Conclusion
Through the IntoTheBlock & TradingView collaboration, you can track Ethereum's retail investor count under the "ETH_RETAIL" metric.
Observing whether there’s a corresponding increase in retail interest following the recent price surge can offer insight into the rally’s sustainability. If there’s no notable rise in the retail investor count, expecting a strong, lasting bull run might be overly optimistic. Thus, on-chain data sometimes serves as a leading indicator, and at other times, it confirms trends.
Thank you for reading.
How to Analyze a Cryptocurrency: Fundamental & Technical StyleCrypto is fashionable again (was it ever out of fashion?), with Bitcoin BTCUSD pumping to a new all-time high above $82,000 . But with all that buzz and excitement, it’s easier than ever to get swept away in the tide of social media hype, viral memes, and “expert” Telegram signals chats.
Is that real success in crypto trading? Not exactly. Real success requires more than just blindly following the noise. The savvy investor knows how to analyze a coin, piecing together a mosaic of factors to make some trading choice. Let’s break down 🤸♂️ how to do this effectively.
When looking to analyze a cryptocurrency, there are two distinct approaches you’d want to consider — fundamental and technical analysis. This pair of viewpoints cuts through the noise and gets to the real story behind a coin. Coupling them together can be a powerful recipe for success.
The Basics: Why You Need Both Fundamentals and Technicals
Crypto analysis is all about the combination of fundamental and technical approaches.
Fundamental Analysis (FA) helps you determine whether a cryptocurrency holds long-term potential based on its real-world application, team, and project structure.
Technical Analysis (TA) lets you gauge market sentiment and potential price moves by analyzing past price actions and trends.
Master both, and you’ve got yourself a complete toolkit. FA tells you if a coin is worth your time, and TA lets you fine-tune your entries and exits.
Fundamental Analysis: Reading Between the Blockchains
Fundamentals give you the long-term view—what a project stands for, what problems it’s solving, and whether it has staying power. A coin with solid fundamentals usually has a strong foundation, dedicated team, and clear purpose. Here are a few key aspects to evaluate:
Use Case: Does This Coin Do Anything Useful?
Not all coins are created equal, and some are, well… kind of a pointless joke, or created to be a pointless joke but turned out to be a big deal (did anyone say Doge DOGE/USE ?) If you want a real-world use case, look at Ethereum ETH/USD — it opened up the entire decentralized finance (DeFi) and smart contract universe. Now compare that to yet another dog-themed token.
The key is to ask yourself: does this coin solve a real-world problem, or is it banking on social media likes? A strong use case equals a stronger shot at lasting value.
Team and Leadership: Who’s Running the Show?
The team behind a coin is often the make-or-break factor. You want to see solid, experienced people who’ve been in the space and know their stuff. Look for LinkedIn profiles, past projects, and what industry insiders are saying.
Pro tip: if you can’t find the team anywhere online, or if their CEO goes by something like “CryptoKing” on Reddit or Telegram, proceed with caution (or dump it).
Investors and Backers: Who’s Got Skin in the Game?
In crypto, a solid roster of backers can be like a seal of approval — big-shot VCs, famous angel investors, or major blockchain funds often bring more than just cash. Big names like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) or Pantera Capital backing a coin? That’s a good sign as they likely see something worth the investment.
But let’s keep it real: even the pros get it wrong. Sequoia’s high-stakes investment in FTX? That didn’t age well. It went from a headline win to a headline regret. The lesson? Big names can be a great vote of confidence, but they’re no substitute for doing your own homework.
Dig into how engaged these investors are. Are they making decisions or are they just a logo on the website? If they’re actually involved, it adds weight. Just remember: your best edge comes from putting in the research, not just riding on who’s along for the ride.
Partnerships and Network: Are They Walking the Talk?
A strong project is often backed by legitimate partnerships. Real collaborations with reputable companies from the industry show a coin has a foothold in the market, a strong network. But watch out for overblown claims—a name drop isn’t the same as a partnership. The best projects are the ones where you can verify the collaborations and see real interaction.
Technical Analysis: Getting the Pulse of the Market
If FA tells you what a coin is, TA tells you how it’s behaving in the market. TA is all about catching trends, spotting patterns, and getting the timing right. Here’s where to start:
Indicators to Watch: Moving Averages, RSI, and MACD
Moving Averages (MA): These smooth out price action to show you the market’s general direction. A 50-day MA crossing above a 200-day MA? That’s usually a bullish sign .
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI tells you if a coin is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30), signaling potential reversals .
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it’s a buy signal; below, it’s a sell signal. This helps you ride momentum without getting whipsawed.
Chart Patterns: Know Your Shapes
Patterns like head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, and trend lines are your map to market sentiment. Look for breakouts past resistance levels or breakdowns below support as entry and exit points. But stay flexible — that’s crypto and things can change on a dime.
Meme Coins and the Hype Machine: Beware the FOMO
If you’ve been in the crypto game for any time at all, you’ve seen the lure of meme coins. From Dogecoin to Shiba Inu, these coins have made some people rich — but they’ve also created some bagholders.
Don’t Chase Trends: Just because a coin is all over TikTok doesn’t mean it’s a wise investment. Meme coins often rely on community-driven hype rather than any real-world utility. FOMO is the quickest way to make a costly mistake.
Be Wary of Telegram and Discord “Tips”: While some groups are genuinely insightful, many operate more like echo chambers. If your trading strategy is “I saw it in a chat,” it might be time to rethink your approach. Look for projects with substance, not just the latest meme.
Bringing It All Together: Using FA and TA for Smarter Trades
Blending FA and TA lets you go beyond hype. Here’s a solid plan to put these tools to work:
Research the Fundamentals: Assess if a project has real value based on its use case, team, and partnerships.
Look for Technical Confirmation: Use technical analysis to decide the best time to enter and exit.
Set Goals and Limits: Establish your profit targets and stop-loss points before you buy.
Crypto trading is part science, part art. Fundamental analysis gives you the big picture, while technicals keep you tuned in to market conditions. Use them together, and you’ll be a lot less likely to end up with a token that’s only valuable for a while.
Final Take: Follow the Data, Not the Crowd
Crypto success isn’t about catching the latest Twitter trend — it’s about staying grounded in facts and making decisions based on data, research, and analysis. Use FA to pick projects that last and TA to catch price action at the right time.
So, Which Type of Analysis Do You Prefer?
Are you more of a fundamentals fan, focusing on the project’s long-term vision and team? Or do you live by the charts, riding trends and tracking indicators? Maybe you’re a mix of both? Whichever camp you fall into, we’d love to hear your thoughts.
Drop a comment and share your go-to analysis strategy—let’s get the conversation started!
TSLA Rally: What's Next?Tesla is currently trading within an upward channel on the 1-hour chart. This channel suggests continued bullish momentum, but we should remain cautious of potential pullbacks as it approaches the upper trendline.
Price Action Analysis:
Channel Formation:
TSLA is respecting an upward trend channel. The current price action is near the upper boundary, indicating possible overextension and potential for a pullback.
Watch for a retest of the mid-channel trendline (around $318-$320) as a key support level. If it holds, it may provide a solid bounce opportunity for scalping.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $328.71 (upper channel line). Breaking above this level with volume could push the price toward $335-$340.
Immediate Support: $322-$320 (mid-channel line and EMA support). If it breaks below this, expect a test of the $310-$312 area.
Key Levels Below: $294.07 is a strong support zone, aligning with previous consolidation and a psychological level.
Volume Profile:
Increasing volume with each leg up indicates strong buyer interest. However, be cautious of a volume divergence if we see decreasing volume on higher prices, suggesting weakening momentum.
MACD and Momentum Indicators:
The MACD on the 1-hour chart is extended but shows no signs of bearish crossover yet. Keep an eye on a potential bearish crossover, which could signal a short-term pullback.
RSI (not shown but inferred) is likely nearing overbought territory. Consider this when planning for scalp entries and exits.
Scalping Opportunities:
Look for quick scalps at the key intraday levels:
Long Entry: Around $320-$322 with a tight stop below $318, targeting a quick move back to $328.
Short Entry: If it rejects off $328-$330, consider a short scalp targeting the $320 support.
Swing Trade Ideas:
A strong daily close above $330 could set up a swing trade toward the $340 level, given the recent bullish momentum.
Conversely, a break below $320 could lead to a deeper pullback, targeting $310-$312 for a
swing entry.
Disclaimer:
This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please perform your own research before making any trading decisions.
Mastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TVMastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TradingView 📊
The Anchored Volume Profile is a powerful tool that traders use to visualize volume distribution over a specified price range, providing critical insights into market behavior. Here’s a detailed description of its setup and usage on TradingView:
In this video, we will be going in-depth into the following areas:
What is the Anchored Volume Profile?
The Anchored Volume Profile is a specialized indicator that helps traders understand the distribution of traded volume at different price levels. Unlike traditional volume profiles that analyze data over a fixed time period, the anchored version allows traders to anchor the volume analysis to specific bars, candles, or price points.
Why Use the Anchored Volume Profile?
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels: You can easily identify key support and resistance levels by analyzing where the most volume has been traded.
Spotting Trends and Reversals: High-volume nodes can indicate areas of strong interest, helping to predict potential trend continuations or reversals.
Improving Entry and Exit Points: Knowing where the market participants are most active can significantly enhance your decision-making process for entries and exits.
How to set up the Anchored Volume Profile on TradingView:
Add the Anchored Volume Profile Indicator:
Click on the “Indicators” button at the top of the chart.
Search for “Anchored Volume Profile” in the search bar.
Select it from the list and apply it to your chart.
Anchor the Indicator:
Click on the anchor icon that appears on the chart.
Drag it to the specific bar, candle, or price point where you want to start your volume analysis.
Customize Settings:
Adjust the settings to suit your trading style. You can modify the range, color, and other parameters to better visualize the data.
Using the Anchored Volume Profile:
Analyzing Volume Nodes: Identify high and low volume nodes. High volume nodes often act as support or resistance, while low volume nodes might indicate potential breakout areas.
Understanding Market Sentiment: See where the majority of trading activity has taken place to gauge market sentiment.
Making Informed Decisions: Use the insights from the volume profile to make better-informed trading decisions regarding entries, exits, and stop-loss levels.
Leap Competition: Top 3% in 5 Days! Here's HowLast competition, I hit the top 2% in the Leap Competition on TradingView. This time, though, something clicked. In just 5 days, I was already back in the top 3%.
I didn't change my strategy. Instead I focused on refining how I managed risk. I stopped obsessing over perfect entry points and focused on squeezing as much profit as possible from each trade. That meant shifting to a new management technique.
I prioritized a high risk-to-reward ratio, knowing that fewer trades could yield better returns. By using a trailing stop-loss, each trade had room to reach its potential without getting cut off too soon. This approach transformed each trade into a high-upside opportunity, letting winners ride and securing profits along the way.
Over the last few days, I made fewer than ten trades. Each one was carefully planned through a top-down approach, looking at the bigger picture on higher timeframes to catch the market’s broader trends. This view kept me aligned with the trend, setting up trades with stronger potential.
What really amplified my results, though, was the trailing stop. By locking in profits while riding the market’s momentum, this tool turned profitable trades into standout winners. It let me capture each market move fully without jumping out too soon.
Now, let’s get into the top trade that helped me to get into top 3% within less than a week:
And here’s the trailing stop-loss indicator I’m using—perfect for trades with room to run:
//@version=5
indicator("Swing Low Trailing Stop", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
initialStopPercentage = input.float(0.5, title="Initial Stop Loss Percentage", minval=0.01, step=0.01) * 0.01
Swing_Period = input.int(10, "Swing Period")
i_date = input.time(timestamp("05 Nov 2024 00:00 +0300"), "Start Date")
// Variables for tracking stop loss
var float stopLossPrice = na
var float lastSwingLow = na
// Calculate Swing Low
swingLow = ta.lowest(low, Swing_Period)
// Logic
if i_date == time
stopLossPrice := low * (1 - initialStopPercentage)
lastSwingLow := swingLow
// Update Stop Loss
if time > i_date
newSwingLow = swingLow
if (newSwingLow > lastSwingLow )
stopLossPrice := math.max(stopLossPrice, newSwingLow)
lastSwingLow := newSwingLow
// Plot the stop loss price for visualization
plot(time >= i_date ? stopLossPrice : na, title="Trailing Stop Loss", color=color.red, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_linebr)
With this refined approach, I can’t wait for next week and the fresh opportunities that lie ahead!
Big thanks to the TradingView community for creating opportunities like this competition—it’s a game-changer. Getting to test and refine strategies in a real, competitive environment pushes all o us to get better every day!
If you haven’t joined already, make sure to hop into the competition . It’s an incredible way to challenge yourself, sharpen your skills, and see how you stack up against other traders!
Keep focusing on becoming 1% better every day if you want to make this happen.
Moein
4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead.
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy.
Gold (XAU/USD)
In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher.
WTI Crude Oil (WTI)
Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities.
The Big Picture
From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now.
Final Thoughts for Traders
Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
