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Are Trump’s Tariffs More Bark Than Bite? What Markets Are SayingThe heated tariff drama is reverberating across global markets with a different impact depending on the region and the asset itself. Some markets, previously considered highly sensitive to extra tax charges, are actually doing better than the dominant stocks on Wall Street. Or maybe that’s just the calm before the storm? Let’s find out. 🌏 Are Europe's Stocks Great Again? European stocks are leaving Wall Street equities in the dust, contrary to investor expectations ( contrarians, hat tip to you ). Since Donald Trump officially stepped into the top job in American politics (and started the whole tariff narrative) the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index SXXP has gained roughly 6% to date. Its US counterpart, the S&P 500 SPX is up about 2.5% over the same time span. Europe’s start-of-year spectacle is so good it prompted Bank of America analysts to dig into the archives and realize this is the old continent’s best opening since the 1980s. That is, while European countries struggle to power up their economies and the European Central Bank is dropping interest rates fast . The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC has fallen out of favor and is languishing around with a 2.2% increase since Trump took office. Moreover, the elite club called the Magnificent Seven is barely getting by. With the exception of Meta META , which is up more than 20% this year, all the others are either underwater or head above the water. By the looks of it, Trump is gradually rolling out his punishing tariffs but European investors don’t seem too scared. Earlier this week, the US President revealed his intentions to slap the auto industry with a hefty 25% tariff starting April 2. Drugs and chips got picked on, too, with levies in the same neighborhood. The auto space in Europe is bound to feel the weight of that auto tariff decision. Currently, Europe’s car manufacturers are taxed with a 2.5% levy on their way to the US. In the other direction, however, the US is obligated to pay a 10% duty when it imports cars into Europe. The proposed auto tariffs knocked Asia’s automaker stocks during the Asian session on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 index NI225 was trading almost 2% lower with the auto sector dragging the broad performance. 👀 What’s Happening Elsewhere? Gold XAUUSD is apparently the biggest winner of the tariff threat. As long as it doesn’t get slapped with one. The yellow metal has skyrocketed to levels near $3,000 with a Thursday session high of $2,955 per ounce, breaking its record made earlier in the week . What a bonanza for gold bugs as their main asset is up 15% since mid-December with no corrections and no signs of slowdown. The US dollar has been taking blow after blow, giving rival currencies some much-needed reprieve . The dollar index DXY , measuring the buck’s strength against six forex rivals, is down about 3% from its two-year peak in early January. Bitcoin BTCUSD , the fire-breathing volatility dragon, has actually been pretty tamed up as Trump’s crypto working group has stayed mostly tight-lipped over the prospects of crypto-friendly legislation. Prices of the orange coin celebrated inauguration day with an all-time record but have slipped 11% since then to dive back under $100,000. Against that backdrop, what are you loading up on? Are you stacking up some European shares and shunning their US peers? Or you’re after that OG token under $100,000? Let us know in the comment section!
TVC:SXXP
by TradingView
9
Sneaky Breakouts: Recent IPOs Reddit and KlaviyoThe charts above highlight Klaviyo and Reddit. The first thing I must say is I am not long either of these companies. I am simply using them as a barometer to spark some research. What I find interesting about both of these names is the way they have marched to all-times and being somewhat new companies to the market. Both have IPO'd within the 12-24 months. Reddit, however, is a bit more widely known and many of you have followed its breakout. So, in contrast, the chart at the top left of KVYO is very interesting because it is not widely followed or discussed. They are a company at the forefront of automated marketing messaging. Klaviyo enables businesses of all sizes to streamline their customer engagement, transforming a marketing team into a full-fledged messaging powerhouse, allowing brands to automate emails, SMS, and push notifications with data-driven precision. But the real reason I’m sharing this chart isn’t just about what Klaviyo does—it’s about what its stock is doing alongside another recent IPO like Reddit. Klaviyo went public on September 20, 2023, pricing its IPO at $30 per share and raising approximately $576 million, giving it a valuation around $9 billion at the time. The stock initially saw strong demand, opening at $36.75 on its first day of trading. Now, months later, it has quietly surged to new all-time highs, a move that flew under my radar. This has me thinking: what other recent IPOs are quietly breaking out? Historically, some of the best-performing stocks in the market have been newly public companies that start to trend higher after an initial post-IPO base. Names like Shopify, CrowdStrike, and Datadog all had explosive runs after establishing themselves post-IPO. Klaviyo’s move could be an early signal that a new wave of breakouts is forming, and I’m looking for the next in line. Beyond IPOs, I’m also watching broader shifts in the market, particularly how AI is reshaping industries. AI-driven automation is evolving beyond simple efficiency tools into full-fledged AI agents capable of transforming cost structures for companies. From marketing to customer service to software development, businesses that leverage AI in ways that improve margins could be tomorrow’s biggest winners. The question now is: which companies are positioned to capitalize on this shift? This is my focus—hunting for epic breakouts, whether it’s fresh IPOs like Klaviyo or companies leading the next wave of AI-driven disruption. If you know of any, add them to the comments below!
NYSE:RDDT
by scheplick
5
2 Ways to Potentially Gauge a Dip in PriceTrading markets should be simple right? Establish the direction of a price trend, take a position in the direction of that trend and enjoy the ride! Of course, in practice, we all know trading is never that easy. All traders go through similar anxieties regarding whether the current level is the correct one to trade. Perhaps one of the hardest challenges if you want to buy an asset, is when a high in price has already been established and prices are selling off. Are you now wrong with your view to buy, or should this sudden weakness be used as an opportunity to take a long position at possibly a better level? As traders, we face these decisions every day, but fortunately, technical analysis offers several tools to aid us. Today, we want to look at 2 approaches that can assist in gauging how far a correction in price may go, and if we should consider that dip in price as an opportunity to take a position or not. Previous Highs as a Support: We all know prices never move in straight lines, be it to the up or the downside. Corrections are often seen as a healthy counter move to the on-going trend. However, being able to anticipate the extent of such weakness and when to make that trade, can be vital. If we look at the chart of the UK 100 Index above, we can see that between May 15th 2024, when the index traded to a high of 8477 and August 5th 2024, when the 7906 low was posted, a period of sideways price activity materialised. An upside closing break from this range materialised on January 17th 2025, at which point, traders perhaps began to anticipate a more extended phase of price strength. However, as we’ve said, prices don’t always move in straight lines, even after such a break higher. Often, a pullback in price develops, offering opportunities to enter the market at potentially a better level than if we’d blindly followed price strength after the initial break higher. A pullback in price is perfectly normal and doesn’t alter possibilities of a more extended phase of price strength. However, the challenge is anticipating where support may be found again, to hold and resume the advance. Often, old price highs can be useful, as having previously marked resistance to price strength, once broken they can become support on dips, and may hold future price weakness, even turn it higher once more. Within the UK 100 index, we might consider 8418 from August 30th and 8477 from May 15th as old price highs, which might then become support, after the January 17th upside break in price. To highlight this possible support area marked by these previous price highs, where buying opportunities might have been offered in the UK 100 index during the January price setback, we’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the chart below. Following the January 17th 2025 upside break, having previously been a resistance focus, the 8418 and 8477 highs, might now became potential support to a dip in price, possibly able to hold and reverse the correction back to the upside. This 8418/8477 range, proved to be support when tested on January 27th 2025, from which price strength developed again, to post new all-time highs. Importantly, it is possible given that this 8418/8477 range proved to be support in January, it could do so again, so keep that in mind, if price weakness develops, at any point in the future. Using The 10 Day Moving Average to Act as a Support to Price Dips: In the example above, the UK 100 index correction in January lasted several days, and in certain cases, this could even last weeks. However, what if price is already within an established uptrend? It’s here that setbacks may be seen over a shorter period of time with shallower price declines. In this type of set-up, it is often the rising 10 day moving average that marks the extent of a price dip, before turning price activity higher again. As an example, let’s look at Gold during 2025 so far, focusing on each recent setback in price. During this latest advance, it has been the rising 10 day moving average that has provided support for price dips on each occasion. Subsequent strength then extended the uptrend to new all-time highs. Within such an advance, as traders, we might focus on the rising 10 day moving average to highlight possible support to short term price dips within an uptrend, and an area we might wish to use to establish long positions, anticipating continuation of the on-going uptrend. However, it is important to be aware, a break under the 10 day moving average support might reflect a change in price direction and see deeper declines. So the use of a stop loss to potentially protect any positions is important. With all this in mind, last Friday (February 14th 2025) saw Gold weakness again back to the rising 10 day moving average support. It will be interesting to see if this holds the recent weakness to extend the current uptrend to new all-time highs, or if a closing break lower develops, suggesting risks could turn towards a more extended phase of price weakness. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by Pepperstone
2
Celsius Stock is a fast grower at a good priceCELH is a high growth stock that has finally found a fair price. It has a popular brand and is now available everywhere, including costco. Pepsi is partnering with them. Now that its down 75%, it on my radar as a fairly price high growth stock. so what, what can I expect. What Im hoping when I get a grower, is 20-40% per year. I covered Palantir when it was under 10, and now its over 100 only 2 years later, a 10x. Could that happen here, I have no idea. All we can do is look for good value and reduce our risk by finding quality. Cheers.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by ValuePig
15
Solana’s massive slide: Smart money waiting for this level?Solana has taken a 43% hit from its peak, and while it might look tempting to buy, is it really the right time? In this breakdown, I compare Solana’s performance to Bitcoin’s decline and use multipliers to estimate where SOL might be headed next. With Bitcoin hovering near key support, another drop could trigger a bigger move lower for Solana—possibly down to $134 or even $120. 💡 Are you buying the dip, or do you think there’s more downside ahead? Let me know in the comments! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:DOTUSD
by ThinkMarkets
10
Gold - A Bullish Close Would Be Insane!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) has to close bullish now: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Just since the end of 2022, Gold rallied about +80% which is simply unbelievable looking at the already significant market cap of the precious metal. However this bullrun does not seem to be over and if Gold confirmes the trendline breakout, another rally of +40% will follow soon. Levels to watch: $4.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:GOLDLong
by basictradingtv
23
The TradingView Show: Futures Trading and Risk ManagementJoin us for an insightful live session with Bob Iaccino, an experienced trader and market strategist working with Plus500, an integrated broker on TradingView. In this session, we'll explore key trading products, market insights, and strategies to navigate today’s volatile markets. Whether you're just starting out in futures trading or you're a seasoned pro, this session will offer valuable insights on trading E-mini and Micro E-mini equity futures, Micro Gold, Crude Oil Futures, Micro Bitcoin, and Micro Euro FX. Don’t miss out on the Leap Paper Trading Competition, hosted by CME Group on TradingView! This 1-month contest brings traders from across the globe together — and it's happening now. Sign up before registration closes! The competition is heating up, but who will claim their share of the impressive prize pool? Here’s what's up for grabs: 1st place — $3,000 2nd place — $1,500 3rd place — $1,200 4th place — $1,000 5th place — $800 6th to 25th place — $500 26th to 50th place — $300 51st to 250th place — 6 more months of your current plan
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
5
Bitcoin Trading Plan & Market Analysis🚀 In this breakdown, I outline my trading plan for Bitcoin (BTC), focusing on market structure, price action, and key liquidity dynamics. 🔍 Key Observations: ✅ Price Action & Liquidity Sweeps * Bitcoin has been forming equal highs/lows, with dips below the lows targeting southside liquidity before rallying. * On the 4-hour timeframe, this pattern has repeated multiple times—suggesting smart money accumulation at current levels. ✅ Confirmation Criteria * My bullish thesis remains unconfirmed until we see: * A decisive breakout of the current range. * A successful retest and failure of that breakout level. * If these conditions are met, I will be looking for buying opportunities. ✅ Final Confirmation * A break of key resistance (highlighted in the video) is critical for confirming a trend reversal. 📺 Everything is explained in detail in the video—this is NOT financial advice!
Long
by fxtraderanthony
17
To fade or not to trade? (Example: EUR/USD)There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question. On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend. When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses. The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity. After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market. Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market 1. Identify the Primary Trend Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter. Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising. Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling. A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible. 2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation. In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation. * The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom) * The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal) So, how about what’s happening now? The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD. Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05. A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly. However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average. We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line. The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower. We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals. So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards? To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07. The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom). You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions. But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Drop us a comment! cheers! Jasper
by jasperlawler
8
Chart Patterns That Keep Showing Up (Are Traders Predictable?)In the grand theater of financial markets, traders often fancy themselves as rational actors, making decisions based on cold, hard data. Yet, time and again, their collective behavior etches familiar patterns onto price charts, as if choreographed by an unseen hand (the Invisible Hand?) All across the world economy , markets trade in patterns. The trick is to spot those patterns before they unfold. These recurring formations, known as chart patterns, are a testament to the predictability of human psychology in trading. Let's rediscover some of these enduring patterns, exploring why they persist and how you can leverage them. 🚿 The Head and Shoulders: More Than a Shampoo Brand Imagine a market trend as a partygoer who's had one too many. Initially, they're lively (the left shoulder), then they reach peak status of euphoria (the head), but eventually, they slump with one last “let’s go party people” (the right shoulder). This sequence forms the Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. Traders spot this pattern by identifying three peaks: a central, higher peak flanked by two lower, similar-sized peaks on each side. The neckline, drawn by connecting the lows between these peaks, becomes the critical support level. A break below this line suggests the party's over, and it's time to exit or short the trading instrument. Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders indicates a reversal from bearish to bullish, resembling a person doing a headstand—a strong sign the market's ready to flip. Ready to hunt down the charts for some Head and Shoulders? Try out the Head and Shoulders drawing tool . ⛰️ Double Tops and Bottoms: Déjà Vu in Trading Ever experience déjà vu? The market does too, in the form of Double Tops and Bottoms. A Double Top resembles the letter "M," where the price hits a high, retreats, and then tests that high again before declining. It's the market's way of saying, "I've been here before, and I'm not going higher." The Double Bottom, shaped like a "W," occurs when the price drops to a low, rebounds, and then retests that low before rising. It's akin to the market finding a sturdy trampoline at support levels, ready to bounce back. These patterns reflect traders' reluctance to push prices beyond established highs or lows, leading to reversals. ⚠️ Triangles: The Market's Waiting Game When traders are indecisive, prices often consolidate, forming Triangle patterns. These come in three flavors: Ascending Triangle : Characterized by a flat upper resistance line and a rising lower support line. Buyers are gaining strength, repeatedly pushing prices up to a resistance level. A breakout above this resistance suggests bullish momentum. Descending Triangle : Features a flat lower support line and a descending upper resistance line. Sellers are in control, and a break below support signals bearish continuation. Symmetrical Triangle : Both support and resistance lines converge, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers. The eventual breakout can go either way, and traders watch closely for directional cues. Triangles epitomize the market's pause before a storm, as participants gather conviction for the next move. Feel like looking for some triangles on charts? Jump straight to our easy-to-use Triangle Pattern drawing tool . 🏁 Flags and Pennants: The Market Takes a Breather After a strong price movement, the market often needs a breather, leading to Flags and Pennants. These are short-term continuation patterns that indicate a brief consolidation before the trend resumes. Flag : Resembles a parallelogram sloping against the prevailing trend. It's like the market catching its breath before sprinting again. Pennant : Looks like a small symmetrical triangle that forms after a sharp move. Think of it as the market pitching a tent before continuing its journey. Recognizing these patterns helps traders position themselves for the next leg of the trend. 🧠 The Psychology Behind Pattern Persistence Why do these patterns keep appearing? The answer lies in human psychology. Traders, despite access to vast information, are influenced by emotions like fear and greed. This collective sentiment manifests in predictable ways, creating patterns on charts. For instance, the Head and Shoulders pattern emerges because traders, after pushing prices to a peak, become cautious. Early sellers take profits, causing a dip. A second rally (the head) attracts more participants, but if it fails to sustain, confidence wanes, leading to a sell-off. The final attempt (right shoulder) lacks conviction, and once support breaks, the downtrend ensues. Understanding the emotional drivers behind these patterns allows traders to anticipate moves and strategize accordingly. 🎯 Using Patterns to Your Advantage While recognizing patterns is valuable, it's crucial to approach them with a discerning eye: Confirmation is Key : Don't act on a pattern until it's confirmed. For example, in a Head and Shoulders, wait for a break below the neckline before taking a position. Volume Matters : Volume often validates a pattern. A genuine breakout is usually accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating strong participation. Contextual Awareness : Consider the broader market context. Patterns can yield false signals in volatile or news-driven environments. Risk Management : Always set stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected moves. Patterns suggest probabilities, not certainties. 🧬 The Evolution of Patterns in Modern Markets In today's algorithm-driven trading landscape, one might wonder if traditional chart patterns still hold relevance. Interestingly, even sophisticated trading algorithms (those used by hedge funds and investment managers) are programmed based on historical patterns and human behavior, perpetuating the cycle. Moreover, as long as markets are driven by human participants, emotions will influence decisions, and patterns will emerge. The tools may evolve, but the underlying psychology remains constant. 🤗 Conclusion: Embrace the Predictability In the volatile world of trading, chart patterns serve as a bridge between market psychology and price action. They offer insights into collective behavior, providing traders with a framework to anticipate movements. By studying these recurring formations, traders can align their strategies with market sentiment, turning the predictability of human nature into a trading edge. What’s your go-to technical analysis pattern? Are you and H&S trader or maybe you prefer to trade double tops? Share your approach in the comments!
Education
by TradingView
16
AMD: It's A Golden Buying OpportunityHello, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc engages in the provision of semiconductor businesses. It operates through the following segments: Computing & Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. The Computing and Graphics segment includes desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units, data centre and professional GPUs and development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment includes server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown below Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- As shown Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- Awaiting 0 crossover on MACD Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown below Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target as shown $244 AMD shares are currently trading near their 52-week lows after the top reached in March 2024. Just A day after inauguration the Trump administration announced the Stargate AI Infrastructure initiative in collaboration with OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. According to Aaron Rakers, a Semiconductor and IT Hardware analyst, the initiative aims to deploy an immediate $100 billion for AI data center construction, starting with an ongoing project in Abilene, Texas, with the potential to scale up to $500 billion over the next four years. While this development is expected to benefit AI infrastructure and semiconductor companies, OpenAI's press release specifically mentioned NVIDIA and ARM as key initial partners, omitting AMD. This raise concerns that AMD may have missed a crucial opportunity in the AI investment boom. While this might be seen as negative there is positive news coming in from the US government, Yesterday 11th February 2025 JD Vance said the administration of President Donald Trump "will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the U.S. with American-designed and manufactured chips.” This gives hope for United States of America AI companies in the coming years. Recently Deepseek caused ripples in the AI market as well. DeepSeek a Chinese AI startup is challenging the prevailing "bigger is better" mindset in AI model training by delivering high-performance results with fewer GPUs and lower costs. This suggests that innovation in model design and efficiency can rival brute-force training approaches. If hyperscalers begin reassessing the necessity of massive GPU clusters, it could impact long-term demand for training hardware. However, near-term spending on AI infrastructure remains strong, with companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google continuing their multi-billion-dollar investments as per their recent Q4 earning updates. While DeepSeek has stirred significant discussion in the semiconductor space, it is yet to showcase any ground-breaking advancements beyond what OpenAI already offers. Having tested the product, we noticed that OpenAI has quickly updated its reasoning capabilities to match DeepSeek's edge over ChatGPT. One of the biggest limitations of generative AI platforms remains their outdated datasets, often capped at 2024. We expect this to disappear with time. It's still too early to determine the full impact, but if DeepSeek’s approach gains widespread adoption, new AI market leaders could emerge, potentially shifting market dynamics. Moreover, DeepSeek's success disrupts the dominance of U.S. firms and highlights vulnerabilities in the effectiveness of export controls on high-end chips. Despite missing out on the Stargate initiative, AMD has expanded its AI chip portfolio and achieved a significant milestone by securing a spot in Dell’s new commercial AI PC lineup. The commercial PC market, which accounts for 55% of total PC shipments, remains a crucial battleground for vendors. Dell, holding 15% of the total PC market and 23% of the commercial segment, is the third-largest commercial PC vendor, with over 85% of its unit sales tied to commercial customers. Following AMD’s recent earnings report, the stock plunged 10% in premarket trading. While the company posted solid Q4 results, weaker-than-expected guidance on data center sales weighed on investor sentiment. Lastly, China represents a significant revenue source for AMD. However, the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose a considerable risk to this income stream, adding another layer of uncertainty to AMD’s future outlook. FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 28, 2024 Net Revenue: $25,785 million, reflecting a 14% increase from $22,680 million in 2023, driven by strong performance in the Data Center and Client segments. Gross Profit: $12,725 million, with a gross margin of 49%, up from 46% in 2023, due to a favorable revenue mix shift towards higher-margin segments. Operating Income: $1,900 million, a significant increase from $401 million in 2023, primarily due to higher revenue and improved gross margins. Net Income: $1,641 million, compared to $854 million in 2023, driven by increased revenue and operating income. Diluted EPS: $1.00, up from $0.53 in 2023, reflecting the company's improved profitability. Revenue Segments: The Data Center segment saw a significant increase in net revenue, driven by higher sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and AMD EPYC CPUs. The Client segment also experienced growth due to increased unit shipments and higher average selling prices of AMD Ryzen processors. However, the Gaming and Embedded segments faced declines in net revenue due to lower semi-custom product revenue and normalized inventory levels, respectively. New Product Launches: AMD launched several new products, including the 5th Gen AMD EPYC processors, AMD Ryzen AI 300 Series processors, and the Ryzen 9000 series processors. These products are designed to deliver leadership performance in gaming, productivity, and AI capabilities. New Production Launches: The company expanded its adaptive computing portfolio with the launch of the Versal Series Gen 2 devices, including the Versal AI Edge Series Gen 2 and Versal Prime Series Gen 2 adaptive SoCs, which enhance AI-driven embedded systems. Future Outlook: AMD plans to continue its focus on AI and enterprise markets, with expectations to complete the acquisition of ZT Systems in the first half of fiscal year 2025. The company also intends to seek a strategic partner for ZT Systems' manufacturing business. Sales Units: The Client segment reported a 34% increase in unit shipments, reflecting strong demand for AMD mobile and desktop Ryzen processors. Geographical Performance: International sales accounted for 66% of net revenue in 2024, indicating a strong global presence and continued significance of international markets in AMD's sales strategy. CHALLENGES AND RISKS Market and Competitive Risks: The company faces significant economic and strategic risks due to the dominance of Intel and Nvidia in their respective markets, which may limit AMD's ability to compete effectively. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, with severe downturns that have historically affected the company. Operational Risks: The company relies on third-party manufacturers, which poses risks if these suppliers are unable to meet demand or if there are disruptions in the supply chain. Potential security vulnerabilities in products and IT outages or cyberattacks could also disrupt operations. Legal and Regulatory Risks: Government actions that may limit product exports and evolving expectations regarding corporate responsibility could result in additional costs and reputational harm. Management Strategies: Management is focusing on timely product introductions and maintaining product quality to provide value to customers. The company is also investing in AI capabilities to meet the growing demand for AI solutions, although the trajectory of AI adoption remains uncertain. Market Risks: The company is exposed to unfavorable currency exchange rate fluctuations, which could adversely affect profitability and cash flows. Additionally, potential changes in tax regulations and the realization of deferred tax assets could affect financial results. STRATEGIC INITIATIVES IN 2024 Strategic Initiatives: In 2024, AMD focused on expanding its AI capabilities and data center infrastructure. The company launched multiple leadership products, including the 5th Gen AMD EPYC processors and AMD Ryzen AI 300 Series processors, to enhance its high-performance computing portfolio. AMD also acquired Silo AI Oy to bolster its AI software capabilities and entered into an agreement to acquire ZT Systems to enhance its AI and compute infrastructure offerings. Capital Management: AMD repaid its 2.95% Senior Notes due 2024, reducing its total debt from $2.5 billion to $1.8 billion. The company returned $862 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 5.9 million shares of common stock. As of December 28, 2024, $4.7 billion remained available for future stock repurchases. AMD maintained a revolving credit facility of $3 billion and a commercial paper program, both of which were undrawn during the year. Future Outlook: AMD plans to close the acquisition of ZT Systems in the first half of fiscal year 2025, subject to regulatory approvals. The company intends to seek a strategic partner to acquire ZT Systems' manufacturing business. AMD expects to continue leveraging its cash, cash equivalents, and credit facilities to fund operations and strategic initiatives, including potential acquisitions and capital expenditures, over the next 12 months and beyond. Our recommendation When it comes to AI beneficiaries and hardware for AI applications, AMD has failed to get the highlight it deserves. This has greatly led to a lot of investors looking at Nvidia vs AMD. However, over the last few weeks, Deepseek caused ripples in the AI market due to its ability to make programs with less powered chips. DeepSeek's V3 a Chinese AI startup is challenging the prevailing "bigger is better" mindset in AI model training by delivering high-performance results with fewer GPUs and lower costs. This suggests that innovation in model design and efficiency can rival brute-force training approaches. As a result of this, we expect more focus to move to alternative companies that are involved in AI infrastructure. AMD remains well positioned to compete with its competitors all round. In November 2024, AMD showcased its ongoing high-performance computing (HPC) leadership at Supercomputing 2024 by powering the world’s fastest supercomputer. In March 2024, AMD stock reached the all-time high at $227.30. The stock has since retraced by 53.8% to its current price of $110.48. This correction, coupled with the strong fundamentals the company has signals that AMD remains a solid hold in the long term and a great buy from the current levels. AMD continues to focus on expanding its AI capabilities and data centre infrastructure. On 11th February 2024, AMD announced the signing of a Letter of Intent (LOI) with the Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) of France to collaborate on the advanced technologies, component and system architectures that will shape the future of AI computing. This effort underscores the AMD commitment to fostering international collaborations that accelerate AI innovation, making AI more inclusive and sustainable, and strengthening cooperation, in particular, between the United States and European research institutions. It also opens up for opportunity for more income from the Europe market. For the full year 2024, AMD reported record revenue of $25.8 billion, gross margin of 49%, operating income of $1.9 billion, net income of $1.6 billion, and diluted earnings per share of $1.00. On a non-GAAP (*) basis, gross margin was a record 53%, operating income was $6.1 billion, net income was $5.4 billion and diluted earnings per share was $3.31. A key risk for AMD is the trade war between the united states and China. China represents a significant revenue source for AMD and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose a considerable risk to this income stream, adding another layer of uncertainty to AMD’s future outlook. Our view on Advanced Micro Devices is BUY/HOLD with a target of $244. This is a 120.48% return on the stock from the current price of 110.48. Sources: www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by thesharkke
16
Understanding Buy The Dip In TradingBuying the dip is a trading strategy where you take advantage of temporary price drops in an overall uptrend. The goal is simple: enter the market at a lower price before it resumes its upward move. It sounds easy, but knowing when and how to do it makes all the difference. In this guide, we’ll explore key setups, ideal market conditions, and smart risk management techniques to help you trade dips like a pro. 🚀 1. Understanding Market Structure 🏗️ Before jumping into a trade, it’s crucial to understand how price moves. A strong uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows—this is where buying dips can be very profitable. But beware: not every drop is a buying opportunity. Some dips are part of a pullback, a temporary retracement before the trend resumes, while others signal a complete reversal—the last thing you want to buy into. Key levels to watch include support zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and high-volume areas. These zones act as potential turning points where the price is likely to bounce. 2. Proven Setups for Buying the Dip 🎯 🔢 Fibonacci Retracement Support When the price pulls back within a strong trend, it often lands on key Fibonacci levels like 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%. These act as natural support points where buyers step in. If a strong bullish candle appears at one of these levels, it can signal a solid dip-buying opportunity. Combine this with an oversold RSI and rising volume, and you have a strong case for entry. 🎭 Liquidity Grab (Stop Hunt) Markets love to shake out weak hands. Sometimes, the price dips below a previous low, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing sharply. This is called a liquidity grab—smart money accumulates positions while retail traders panic. If the price quickly reclaims the level it just broke, it’s a strong buy-the-dip signal. Look for big buy orders, a sharp recovery, and bullish candlesticks to confirm entry. 📊 Anchored VWAP Test Institutions often base their trades around VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), especially when anchored from a significant swing low. When the price revisits this VWAP in a strong uptrend, it’s a potential dip-buying zone. Watch for bounces off VWAP, rising volume, and confluence with other support levels for confirmation. 🔥 Point of Control (POC) Revisit Markets move towards areas of high liquidity. If the price revisits the Point of Control (POC)—the price level where most volume is traded in a range—it often serves as strong support. When price pulls back into the POC and finds buying interest, it’s a great spot to enter. Look for strong reactions, failed attempts to move lower, and confluence with Fibonacci levels. 📏 Previous Range Support A breakout from a trading range is significant, but the price often returns to retest the range high as new support before continuing higher. If this happens on low selling pressure and aligns with moving averages or VWAP, it can be a golden buy-the-dip opportunity. Look for bullish reactions, buying volume, and strong candles off the level. 3. When Buying the Dip Works Best ✅ Not all dips are worth buying. The best setups occur when: The market is in a strong uptrend, making higher highs consistently. 📈 Volume is high, showing that buyers are stepping in. 🔥 Macro conditions support upside movement, like favorable economic news. 📰 4. Risk Management: Protecting Your Capital 🛡️ Even the best traders take losses. What matters is how you manage risk: Set a Stop Loss 🎯: Always place a stop below key support levels. Position Sizing 📊: Never risk more than a small portion of your capital per trade. Have an Exit Plan 🚪: Know where you’ll take profits, whether it's at a resistance level or a trailing stop. Scale In and Out 🎢: Enter gradually instead of all at once, and take profits along the way to lock in gains. Key takeaways 🎤 Buying the dip can be a powerful strategy—when done correctly. The key is patience: wait for strong trends, allow price to reach significant levels, and confirm with volume and momentum. Combine technical analysis with solid risk management, and you’ll improve your chances of success in the markets. Happy trading! 🚀
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
5
Breakdown Of My Personal Strategy On Dow Jones TutorialI will be giving a breakdown on my own personal strategy on how I trade the Dow Jones Futures. I am writing this post for two reasons. First and foremost, to help people. Secondly, to help myself in better understanding. The way that I trade is using support and resistance, only I don't use the traditional sense of support and resistance that is taught. I use price levels that all traders have. The four price points of a candle stick. I also use major round numbers of 1000's and 500's. The Open The Low The High The Close I start by looking at the monthly. When a new month opens, I.E. February 1st for example, I mark the opening price in Orange. I use the 2 hour chart to look for buying and selling areas, using key price levels. I look for these key price areas and see how price behaves once they get there. Low of Month trades Low of the Week trades Low of the Day trades High of Month trades High of the Week trades High of the Day trades Example 1: The month of February opens at 44,444. I mark this with a horizontal trendline in Orange Level 4. I see price gapping down right into 44,000. A major round number of 1000. I then drill down to my entry timeframe of the 15 minute to find the buy or sell trigger entry. In this case, I saw the creeping push down into the 1000 level followed by a bull 180 bar. I entered in on the close of that bar. I used a 75 tick stop per ATR and a 200 tick target. This is an actual trade I took. I recently changed my target strategy. I will explain in a bit. I use the same concept for the following three timeframes. The Monthly candle The Weekly candle The Daily candle The Monthly candle: The Weekly candle: The Daily candle: Another example of a trade I took This creeping layering into a level is one of my favorite ways to get into a trade. What I am doing now is I will set my stop loss of 75 ticks and I will have no profit target. I will hold the trade until the end of the trading day and close it out before the market closes. On this particular trade, I closed it out at 44,820 for a 343 tick profit. The weekly template structure: Some obvious points but worth repeating. Each Weekly candle has an opening price. Within each weekly candle, there are 5 trading days. Monday-Friday. There is a high and low of the week. Within each trading day, there is also an open, high and a low. I find that when day trading, only to focus on the specific day itself and to not really worry about "multiple time frame analysis" All you need is the major key levels I laid out up above. Here is another trade that I took. I was looking for the Monthly open and 44,500 to be used as resistance for a continuation short trade back through the weekly open. Of course you can see, I lost on this trade. No strategy is ever guaranteed, and I do routinely take losses. My job as a trader is to preserve my capital and to stay alive. My money management strategy: One trade per trading day MAX If lose, DONE Close out near end of day if in profits, DONE 75 tick stoploss on ALL day trades. DO NOT TOUCH. Do not move up or down. Sometimes to Break-even but only if trade is seeming to fail (more of an intuition thing) Risk 0.75%-1.5% per trade Only make slight adjustments to strategy after every 20-trade sample size. By limiting my losses to only one trade per day, I can easily recover from a losing day with any winning day. Somedays I will either not see the market well, enter at a poor location or just overall, not be at my best. My statistics show that RARELY do I enter another trade after a losing trade, does that one succeed. This tells me that I am not seeing something that particular day. I will wrap it up and try again another day. Revenge trading does no good but to hurt yourself. I admit I am wrong on the day and come back again. By limiting myself to one trade per day, I am also cutting down on slippage and commissions. Because of slippage and commissions, trading is NOT a zero-sum game, but in fact a NEGATIVE sum game. Your winners are smaller than they ought to be, and your losses are bigger than ought. I know that I can have three losing days in a row and be right back to normal after one or two winning days. Therefore, who cares if I take a loss. I need to get through the losing trades to find the big, winning trades.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
7
To $TRUMP, or not to $TRUMP? The Art of the BreakoutCrypto Market Update: Several Breakouts in Progress Right Now CRYPTO:TRUMPOFUSD CRYPTO:BTCUSD CRYPTO:ORNUSD CRYPTO:ALEOUSD CAPITALCOM:FILUSD CRYPTO:MOBILEUSD CRYPTO:SHPINGUSD COINBASE:TRUMPUSD In this video, I analyze several ongoing and potential breakouts across multiple crypto assets, identifying key technical patterns, support and resistance levels, and volume trends. While meme coins aren’t typically my preference, the Trump meme coin COINBASE:TRUMPUSD has shown strong market participation, making it an interesting trade. Aleo CRYPTO:ALEOUSD has been in a prolonged downtrend but is now showing signs of a confirmed bottom with increasing volume. Helium Mobile CRYPTO:MOBILEUSD is presenting a well-structured W-reversal, which often leads to strong breakouts. Filecoin CRYPTO:FILUSD has maintained a solid structure, and historical levels suggest a significant rally is possible. Shping CRYPTO:SHPINGUSD , which I’ve tracked since November, appears to be setting up for a continuation move toward higher liquidity zones. Orion Protocol CRYPTO:ORNUSD , while a high-risk play due to liquidity constraints, has characteristics of previous explosive moves. Key Breakout Candidates & Market Observations: 🔹 Trump Meme Coin CRYPTO:TRUMPOFUSD Bought at $16.46 based on a strong bottom formation. "Interdisciplinary Bottom" pattern combines elements of W-reversal, cup and handle, and double bottom formations. Volume and momentum suggest potential upside, with a target zone in the next major liquidity area (~35%-60% potential move). 🔹 Aleo CRYPTO:ALEOUSD One of the longest consistent downtrends on Coinbase, now showing strong signs of reversal. Large volume spike suggests a confirmed bottom. First resistance zone: $1-$1.20 (~150% potential move). 🔹 Helium Mobile CRYPTO:MOBILEUSD Key breakout structure forming with bullish engulfing patterns. Similar price wicks and reversal patterns seen on lower timeframes. If momentum continues, a significant percentage move approaching or exceeding 100% is possible over a short period. 🔹 Filecoin CRYPTO:FILUSD Historical liquidity zones indicate a strong potential rally. Short-term target: $26 Longer-term potential: Historical highs around $100+, with $237 as the all-time high. 🔹 Shping CRYPTO:SHPINGUSD Tracked since November – has been developing a highly structured reversal. Target: 3 cents, based on prior liquidity levels (~300% potential move). 🔹 Orion Protocol CRYPTO:ORNUSD Higher risk due to liquidity, but historically has shown explosive moves. Short-term target: Testing previous highs. Potential upside: $5 if volume and interest increase. Final Thoughts: Bitcoin’s movement continues to influence the broader market, and several altcoins are showing clear reversal signals. While trading strategies differ, recognizing volume shifts, liquidity zones, and structural patterns can present strong opportunities. As always, I encourage everyone to do their own research and approach the market with a clear risk management plan.
COINBASE:TRUMPUSD
by Hollywood260AB
41
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 70.40 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 69.20 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit is at 73.32 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
10
Bitcoin will continue to grow and exit from triangle patternHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. By observing the chart, we can see that the price entered a downward triangle, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line and started to decline. In a short time, the price fell to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, broke this level, and dropped until to support line of the triangle, breaking the support level too. Next, BTC turned around and made a strong impulse up, breaking 95000 and 100000 levels, after which it turned around and started to decline. Price later fell below the 100K level, breaking it, and continued to fall next. Later BTC rose to the 100K resistance level, but at once turned around and dropped to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. After this, the price rebounded from the buyer zone and reached the resistance line of the triangle, and then corrected back. Then Bitcoin started to grow, so, I think that the price can correct to the support line and then rise to the resistance line and break it, thereby exiting from the triangle pattern. Then BTC will continue to grow, therefore I set my TP at 99K points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
16
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders. In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action. The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows: PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3 S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low) R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low) The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets. S&P 500 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading 1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI. Example: In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Riding the Breakout When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies. Example: In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2. FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Target Setting and Risk Management Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move. Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk. Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness: VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone. Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points. RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal. Example: In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence. FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing
SP:SPXEducation
by Capitalcom
4
Gold Price Up 10% Already in 2025. Is $3,000 Only the Beginning?Gold XAUUSD clocked a 27% rise in 2024 when a flurry of events aligned to position the safe-haven asset front and center for global traders. This year, the shiny stuff is already off the charts and into new horizons, nearing $3,000 per ounce. Record after record, gold has defied all gloom-and-doom forecasters and permabears. But is that gold rush sustainable? Depends on who you ask. But the fundamentals are certainly there. A surge in US shipments is driving the latest leg up in the price as gold traders and dealers scramble to import boatloads of it before Trump potentially slaps a tariff on the metal, which has historically been free from such tax charges. A sweeping arbitrage trade is taking place between London and New York. The Americans are piling bullion bars on Comex, the New York commodity exchange while the Brits are seeing their gold reserves dry up, driving the cost of borrowing up by 10% or more (borrowers are usually commercial banks and gold-linked businesses). What’s more, the waiting time to pull gold from the Bank of England has skyrocketed from mere days to between a month and two months. The result of that arbitrage? Inventories in New York have soared roughly 100% since November’s Presidential election with stockpiles now sitting at more than $100 billion in value — that’s more than 1,000 tons. If it was easy to do it, then we could probably brush it off as pure speculation. But it’s a hassle. Here’s how it works: The London gold is not acceptable in New York. To close a contract and stack up the glittery metal in the US, the heavy stuff that’s being transported on planes across the Atlantic needs to be in differently shaped bars. Gold dealers need to first pass it through a refinery in Switzerland where it gets melted and reshaped into the shape Comex takes in New York. That’s how physical gold is different from pretty much any other physical asset like a stock certificate or a bond. Apparently, the insane tariff drama that releases a new episode every day could easily drive the price of gold higher. And that’s what Wall Street thinks will happen. Goldman Sachs GS , the formidable investment banking giant that’s over 150 years old, said in a note that gold prices could top $3,000 this year. It almost happened already and we’re not even past February. Gold hit a record high of $2,940 per ounce on Tuesday — cue the celebration among gold bugs. Another big reason for gold to shine in 2025 is how central banks warmed up to it in 2024. Let’s roll back the tape a little bit — the World Gold Council estimates that central banks last year stacked up more than 800 tons of gold. The biggest buyer on that list is Poland with 80 tons of it. The next four — Turkey, India, Azerbaijan, China. Digging a bit deeper, lower interest rates generally support the bullish narrative for gold, which is a non-yielding asset. Gold doesn’t generate passive income, it doesn’t pay dividends and doesn’t pay you any sort of return like a bond does. When interest rates fall, the environment benefits gold because the opportunity cost of holding it is less and investors jump in more easily. This said, pay attention to the economic calendar for any hot data releases that may stir up gold markets. With momentum being as strong as it is now, do you think gold has more room to the upside? Or are we now in froth land and prices could turn around? Share your thoughts on gold in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
21
3 Tools for Timing PullbacksPullbacks in trends can offer some of the highest quality trading opportunities, but not all pullbacks are equal. Some offer high-probability setups, while others are warning signs of deeper corrections or trend reversals. So how do you time your entry with confidence? Here are three effective tools to help you navigate pullbacks with precision. 1. Keltner Channels: Spotting Pullbacks Within Volatility Keltner Channels are a volatility-based tool that adapts to changing market conditions. They consist of a central moving average with two outer bands—typically set at a multiple of the average true range (ATR). These bands expand and contract as market volatility changes. How to Use It: When price moves into or beyond the Keltner Channel’s outer bands, it signals that momentum is outpacing short-term volatility. This surge in momentum provides an ideal setup to anticipate a pullback. For timing entries, a steady retracement back to the basis line (middle band) often presents the best opportunity to join the trend. The strongest pullbacks tend to be controlled, showing reduced momentum compared to the initial move. In contrast, a deep retracement all the way to the opposite band suggests strong counter-trend pressure, which could indicate a shift in market dynamics rather than a simple pullback. Example: Gold Daily Candle Chart In this example, we see gold pushing into the upper Keltner Channel, retracing to the basis line, finding support, and then resuming its uptrend. This pattern repeated multiple times during last year’s bull run, offering traders several high-probability entry points. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Anchored VWAP: Confirming Institutional Interest The Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a tool that’s widely used by institutional traders. It tracks the average price a market has traded at, weighted by volume, over a specific period. The key difference with Anchored VWAP is that you can "anchor" it to a significant price point (e.g., a breakout or major low), giving you a dynamic reference point for future price action. How to Use It: Anchor the VWAP to a key price level, like the low of the trend or a breakout point. A pullback to the anchored VWAP is often viewed as a high-probability area for entry. This is because institutional traders may be accumulating positions at this level, making it an important support or resistance zone. When the price pulls back to the VWAP and starts to hold above it, it suggests that demand is outweighing supply, making it a potentially good place to enter. Example: USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart Having it highs in November, USD/JPY underwent a steady pullback in December, forming a clear base of support at the VWAP anchored to the September trend lows. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring the Depth of the Pullback The Fibonacci retracement tool is one of the most popular tools for measuring the depth of a pullback. It uses horizontal lines at key Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, etc.) to show potential support and resistance areas during a retracement. How to Use It: Identify the high and low of a trending move and apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to measure the distance of the pullback. Traders should be wary of applying too many Fib levels to their chart, so we would favour focusing on just the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Never assume that Fib levels will hold, wait for price action-based evidence form confirmation. If price action holds at one of these levels and begins to reverse, it suggests that the trend is likely to resume. The deeper the pullback, the more cautious you should be, but price patterns that align with the 61.8% level should still be considered as potential entry points. Example: S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart We can see from this example that the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement zone was a useful tool for timing pullbacks on the S&P 500. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Bringing It All Together The best time to enter a pullback is when multiple tools align. For instance: A pullback to Keltner Channel's outer band that also aligns with a Fibonacci level could signal a strong buy zone. Anchored VWAP and Fibonacci levels acting together as support can further confirm the validity of the pullback. By combining these tools, you'll have a more comprehensive understanding of where the market is likely to resume its trend, increasing your chances of a successful entry. Example: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Here we can see EUR/USD breaks lower – down into the lower Keltner channel. This is followed by a pullback that end up reversing at a confluent zone that includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the basis of the Keltner channel, and the VWAP anchored to the highs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: Timing pullbacks effectively can make a huge difference in trading success, and using the right tools helps separate high-probability setups from lower quality trades. Keltner Channels highlight volatility-driven pullbacks, Anchored VWAP identifies levels where institutions may be active, and Fibonacci retracements offer a structured approach to measuring pullback depth. When these tools align, they create confirmation zones that improve trade timing and risk management. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
9