The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP).
At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked.
I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on...
But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified.
Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things:
- I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics.
- I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally .
It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in.
A Brief Timeline of Chaos
TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy.
And then the madness began. Within hours:
- Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing).
- Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day.
- Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4.
Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes.
The Crypto Community Splits
This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! )
On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster.
The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts.
Is This a Rug Pull?
Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House.
That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall.
My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful
TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher.
So, here’s my advice:
Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.
Take profits while you can.
Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable.
Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride.
Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Community ideas
ADA - Time to buy again!As you can see, the price is forming two bullish patterns on the DAILY timeframe, If my view is correct, Cardano will rise to $1.45 .
And if this pattern is correct and breaks, higher targets are possible.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Rounding Bottom targets in focusHello everyone,
It’s been a few weeks since our last Bitcoin update, and while much has unfolded, our core outlook remains unchanged—bullish momentum persists, with expectations for further rallies. Today, we spotlight a potential rounding bottom formation on BTC, a classic reversal structure signaling continued strength.
This formation features three key elements:
Rounding Bottom Base – The gradual curve in price, showing accumulation.
Stop Wall – The critical resistance level to watch for a breakout.
Landing Base – A support zone providing stability during the formation.
Our chart provides a clear visualization of these elements, offering actionable insights for both mid-term and long-term positioning. As always, disciplined risk management remains essential.
What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts below!
US dollar index remains elevated, but for how long?The US dollar index continues to show strength and with the potential reduction in the amount cuts this year by the Fed, there might be further strength of MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX . But could this be the case in the short-run? Let's dig in...
TVC:DXY
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74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Trading BTC with a Solid Plan Is Crucial for Success—Here’s Mine🌟 In this video, I share a trade idea along with my detailed trading plan and we highlight why a well-structured strategy is 🔑 key to success. Discover how to trade BTC Bitcoin 🪙 using a trend continuation approach while leveraging TradingView's powerful tools and features to gain a real edge in the markets. 🖥️✨
Here’s what we’ll cover:
📊 Trend Analysis: A top-down review of market direction to identify opportunities.
📈 Market Structure & Price Action: Key insights into how price moves and behaves.
🎯 Trade Planning: Using higher timeframe support and resistance levels to set stop loss and target points.
🛠️ TradingView Features: Practical tools to refine your analysis and boost efficiency.
This video is an in-depth guide to trading effectively with a proven strategy, enhanced by TradingView's unique capabilities. 🚀 Please remember, this is not financial advice. 📜
BITCOIN new ATHs !? BITCOIN new all-time highs ?!
Hello ❤TV community 👋
The new year is still young and the bulls could really take off here ...
Here with a bullish option and a WolveWave(WW) and the targets on the upside.
🖥Intraday chart (12h) and everything important
💡 Everything important in the chart 👀
💥bullish CYPHER Harmonic 👀
👉Volume analysis 👀💪
👉Daily MA50 re-test 👀🔥
🔥BITCOIN roadmap/outlook (from 27th february 2024)
If you like this idea, please leave me a 🚀 and follow for updates 🔥⏰
Furthermore, any criticism is welcome as well as any suggestions etc. - You're also very welcome to share this idea.
Have a nice evening & successful trading decisions 💪
M_a_d_d_e_n ✌
NOTE: The above information represents my idea and is not an investment/trading recommendation! Without any guarantee & exclusion of liability!
Morning Routines of Successful Day Traders: It’s Not Just CoffeeIt's pretty busy right now in the market , so we figured why not pull you in for a breather and spin up an evergreen piece that’ll lay out some practical advice to our absolutely magnificent audience. This time we’re talking about routine, morning routine.
The time of day when the majority of us fall into two buckets: those who rise and those who hit snooze until their phone falls off the nightstand. Day traders? They’re a different breed.
Successful day traders aren’t rolling out of bed, rubbing their eyes, and clicking buy before their first sip of coffee. If you think trading is all instinct and luck, you’re in for a wake-up call.
The best in the game have morning routines that look more like pre-game rituals – calculated, precise, and yes, sometimes superstitious.
🧐 Scanning the Ground Before Dawn
Before the market bell even thinks about ringing, day traders are already glued to their screens. Futures markets? Checked. Pre-market movers? Analyzed. Global news ? Scanned twice, just in case something wild happened overnight to the Japanese yen .
The market isn’t an isolated entity; it reacts to everything and the effects are widespread, spilling over from one asset class to another. Inflation data, gold prices, tech earnings, even the tweet that Elon Musk fired off at 3 AM (especially now with his unhinged political disruption).
📒 The Power of the Trading Journal
A tried-and-tested trader’s morning doesn’t start with the news only. They crack open the sacred document – the trading journal . A quick review of yesterday’s trades is non-negotiable. What worked? What didn’t? Was there a panic sell at 10:05 that didn’t age well?
Documenting trades might feel like high school homework, but the elite money spinners swear by it. It’s not about reliving the glory or shame of past trades – it’s about patterns. Spot the patterns, and you’re already ahead of 90% of the market.
🙏 Stretch, Meditate, and Keep Emotions at Bay
Trading isn’t just charts and numbers. It’s a mental game. One bad trade can spiral into a revenge trade, and next thing you know, you’re shorting Tesla at market open because it "felt right." This is why the best day traders center themselves before the chaos begins.
Some meditate. Others hit the gym. A few just sit quietly with their thoughts, which honestly might be the most terrifying option. Regardless of the method, the goal is the same: shake off the stress, start the day calm. Because calm traders make rational decisions. Anxious traders blow up their accounts.
🤖 Tech Check: The Ritual of Rebooting
Imagine missing a perfect trade because your Wi-Fi blinked out or your trading platform decided to update at the worst possible time. For a day trader, technology isn’t just a tool – it’s the lifeline.
A tech check is part of every serious morning routine (or at least weekly). Charts must load fast, platforms need to run smoother than a Swiss watch, and backup systems stand ready for action.
Most traders have backups of their backups, in the cloud and on their hard drives. If their primary PC goes down, there’s a laptop on standby. If that dies, they have their phone. And if the phone crashes? Well, let’s just say there might be a tablet lurking somewhere nearby.
🛒 Watchlists: The Trader’s Grocery List
Top dogs curate their watchlists daily, especially when it’s still the quiet of the day. It’s not just the usual suspects like Apple AAPL or Nvidia NVDA – it’s a finely tuned selection of stocks primed for movement. It could be big tech, auto stocks and even gold-linked stocks .
Earnings reports , unusual volume, or a sudden spike in options activity – all of these feed the list. The goal is to narrow the focus. Because staring at 200 charts at once is a surefire way to miss everything important.
📅 Economic Calendar: The Absolute Mainstay
Pro traders live by the economic calendar and are more likely to miss the birthday of a loved one than the Fed making an announcement. Is there a jobs report dropping ? The latest consumer prices are in ? These events are market movers, and day traders plan their sessions around them.
Big data dumps can trigger wild volatility, and the last thing any trader wants is to be blindsided by a sudden spike in price out of nowhere. Think of the economic calendar as the market’s version of a weather forecast.
You wouldn’t plan a picnic during a thunderstorm, and you shouldn’t casually load up on the British pound ahead of an expected interest rate decision.
🚀 It's Go Time: Visualization and Execution
There’s a quiet intensity in the room as you prepare for the opening bell (unless you trade forex or crypto). The screens are glowing, the watchlist is set, and the coffee is (hopefully) still hot.
But before the first trade, there’s visualization. Successful traders run through potential scenarios in their heads. “If stock X hits this level, I’ll enter. If it drops below Y, I’m out.”
It’s like rehearsing lines for a play. When the market finally opens, there’s no hesitation – just execution.
🏁 Final Thought: It’s Not Magic, It’s Routine
Day trading might look glamorous from the outside, but at its core, it’s a grind full of decisions, decisions, and decisions again. The traders who consistently win aren’t lucky; they’re disciplined. And it all starts with the morning routine.
So, next time you see all those financial gurus, mentors and course-selling forex influencers on Instagram, picture this instead: a dimly lit room, a couple screens, a watchlist, and a trader calmly sipping their third cup of coffee. Because in this game, the calmest minds – not the flashiest – take home the prize.
Bearish mean reversion kicks in for USD/JPYIts bullish trend struggled to gain any traction above 158, and now momentum has finally turned against USD/JPY bulls. A retracement is now underway, but as to how deep really comes down to whether incoming US data continues to soften to bolster Fed-cut bets, or if the BOJ get their hawkish skates on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Trade Management Using Time StopsTrade management is one of the most crucial skills for any trader, especially when it comes to knowing when to cut your losses early. One of the key methods to achieve this is through the use of Time Stops, which provide a systematic way to assess your trades and manage risk.
While traditional stop losses are indispensable for protecting your capital against adverse price moves, they don’t always address the psychological challenge of cutting losing trades early. This is where Time Stops can step in as a complementary tool. By targeting trades that show no meaningful progress within a defined timeframe, Time Stops help reduce the size of your average loss—an often overlooked but critical factor in developing a positive trading edge.
It’s important to remember: Time Stops don’t replace traditional stop losses. Instead, they add an additional layer of discipline to your risk management.
What Are Time Stops?
Time Stops involve exiting a trade after a predetermined amount of time, regardless of whether your stop loss has been triggered. The idea is simple but effective: if a trade isn’t working as expected within the allotted time, it’s better to exit and preserve capital for better opportunities.
This approach works particularly well with strategies where winning trades are expected to show results quickly. These include breakouts, where price moves decisively through a key level, and reversals, which rely on sharp changes in direction. Time Stops provide a structured way to manage trades that fail to live up to these expectations.
Why Use Time Stops?
Time Stops offer several potential advantages:
• Emotional Discipline: One of the toughest aspects of trading is deciding when to exit a trade that hasn’t hit its stop loss but isn’t progressing as expected. Time Stops provide a clear, objective rule for exiting such trades, removing emotional decision-making and promoting a disciplined approach.
• Potentially Enhanced Trading Edge: By incorporating Time Stops, you align your exits more closely with your strategy’s performance expectations. This can help refine your approach by filtering out trades that fail to meet their initial criteria, allowing you to focus on opportunities with greater potential to match your strategy’s objectives.
• Maintaining Flexibility in Trade Allocation: Time Stops help ensure that your focus remains on trades that align with your strategy’s core conditions. By identifying trades that are unlikely to meet expectations early, you can keep your trading approach agile, allowing for greater readiness to act on new opportunities.
Strategies That Can Benefit From Time Stops
Time Stops are particularly effective in strategies that depend on quick, decisive price movements. Let’s examine examples for reversals and breakouts.
Reversal Strategy Example: Tesla Daily Timeframe
Tesla forms a two-bar reversal pattern on the daily candle chart at a key swing resistance level, with negative divergence on the RSI indicating potential weakness. A short trade is placed with a traditional stop loss above the two-bar reversal high and resistance level.
Tesla Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
To incorporate a Time Stop, you decide to allow three days for the trade to show signs of a reversal. However, Tesla tracks sideways without breaking lower, suggesting the expected momentum has not materialised.
Tesla T+3
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using a Time Stop in this scenario prevents prolonged exposure to a setup that hasn’t delivered, allowing you to reallocate focus to trades with stronger potential.
Tesla Stopped Out
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Breakout Strategy Example: EUR/USD Hourly Timeframe
EUR/USD breaks out on the hourly chart with increased volume, signalling a potential upward move. You enter a long trade with a stop loss below the swing low.
EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
With a Time Stop, you give the trade ten hours to demonstrate progress. While price consolidates above the breakout level initially, the anticipated follow-through does not occur within the allotted time. In this instance, the Time Stop allows you to exit and refocus on setups with stronger momentum.
EUR/USD +10 Hours
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
EUR/USD +24 Hours
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
EUR/USD Stopped Out
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Time Stops Effectively
To implement Time Stops successfully:
• Set a timeframe: Define the period based on your strategy and market. Momentum trades may require hours, while longer-term setups may need days.
• Analyse your strategy: Review historical data to identify how quickly successful trades typically progress. Use this as a benchmark for your Time Stop.
• Use Time Stops alongside traditional stop losses: Time Stops handle trades that stagnate, while stop losses protect against adverse price moves.
Summary:
Time Stops are a valuable addition to a trader’s toolkit, particularly for strategies like breakouts and reversals, where winners are expected to perform quickly. They help enforce discipline, refine focus, and manage trades that fail to meet expectations.
By combining Time Stops with traditional stop losses, traders can approach the markets with greater structure and objectivity. Over time, this disciplined approach can support the pursuit of consistent results while managing risk effectively.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
$ARTY Correction Complete, Great Entry / Time To Shine 🚀 AMEX:ARTY : A Hidden Gem Ready to Shine
I'm thrilled to announce that AMEX:ARTY is now part of my portfolio. The recent correction seems to have reached its bottom, presenting a perfect entry opportunity for those looking to capitalize on its long-term growth potential.
Why AMEX:ARTY Deserves Attention?
1️⃣ Strong Fundamentals with Huge Growth Potential
Market Cap: Only $16 million, making it significantly undervalued compared to its potential.
Circulating Supply: 80% of AMEX:ARTY tokens are already in circulation – minimal inflation risk and strong price stability.
2️⃣ Exciting Milestones Ahead
AMEX:ARTY is set to make waves in the blockchain gaming and NFT space, with massive upcoming developments:
Integration into the Epic Games Store, one of the largest gaming platforms globally.
Launch of Artyfact Mini-App on Telegram, bringing AMEX:ARTY to a massive user base.
Artyfact Launchpad to help new projects thrive in the ecosystem.
Expansion to major gaming platforms: PlayStation and Xbox.
Availability in Apple's App Store and Google Play Store, broadening accessibility to mobile users worldwide.
These milestones are poised to attract millions of new users to the AMEX:ARTY ecosystem, creating strong demand and long-term growth potential.
📈 My Long-Term Price Targets for AMEX:ARTY
Based on AMEX:ARTY 's fundamentals, market cap, and upcoming catalysts, I foresee massive upside potential:
First target: $10 – achievable in the near term with increased adoption and upcoming milestones.
Second target: $25 – reflecting the value of a more mature ecosystem and higher user base.
Ultimate target: $50+ – as AMEX:ARTY becomes a leader in blockchain gaming and NFT adoption.
At its current valuation, AMEX:ARTY has significant room to grow into a market cap that reflects its true potential.
🔍 Bullish Technical Analysis on AMEX:ARTY Chart
From a technical perspective, AMEX:ARTY 's chart looks extremely promising:
Correction Over:
The recent pullback has established strong support near $1.5.
Volume Spike: Increasing trading volume indicates growing interest from both retail and institutional investors.
Momentum Building:
The RSI is climbing out of oversold territory, signaling growing bullish momentum.
The MACD is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting a rally in price.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance:
$3 – breaking this level could trigger a significant upward movement.
Next Target Zones: $5, $7.5, and ultimately $10.
🌟 Why I’m Confident in AMEX:ARTY
With its low market cap, high token circulation, and an ambitious roadmap of developments across major gaming and app platforms, AMEX:ARTY has all the ingredients for explosive growth. The time to enter is now, while the project remains undervalued and under the radar.
Are you ready to ride this wave? Let me know your thoughts and analysis on $ARTY!
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures
The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President?
Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies
My research setup is as follow:
• I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms.
• For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term.
• The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th.
Here is what I found:
• Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%)
• Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%)
• Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term
• George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%)
• Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years
• George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively
• Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term
• Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%)
• Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%)
Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%).
Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset.
Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%!
Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures
The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market.
Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies.
• As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months
• Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year
• 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%)
An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances.
Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract.
CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio.
Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077).
Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077).
Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration:
• A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February
• He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract
• He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May
• Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August
This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts.
There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses.
The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks.
For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5).
The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive.
The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
EUR/USD : Approaching Critical Demand Zones! (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the #EURUSD chart in the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price has currently reached a very important demand zone, and the probability of a price reversal from this level is high! However, note that I personally have another scenario in mind, which is that after an initial short-term rise in the current area, the price will decline again to the very important demand zone of 1.005 to 1.007 , and then, with a suitable trigger in this area, we can look for an attractive BUY position !
All key levels and important zones have been marked on the chart! If you have any questions, be sure to ask, and I will try to respond as soon as possible!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Euro can start to move up to resistance level and break itHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price some days ago entered to downward channel, where it at once rebounded from the support line to the resistance line and then started to decline. Long time, the price fell near the resistance line of the channel, until it reached 1.0455 points, after which it moved up to the resistance line and then dropped to the support line, breaking the 1.0410 resistance level. Then Euro exited from a downward channel and rose to the 1.0410 level, which coincided with the seller zone and some time traded between. Later it made a downward impulse to the current resistance level, which coincided with the resistance area and even fell a little lower than the 1.0250 level, after which started to trades inside a triangle. In this pattern, the Euro in a short time rose to the resistance line, which is located in the seller zone, and then fell to the support line back, breaking the 1.0250 level one more time. Also recently price exited from a triangle pattern and now it continues to decline. So, in my opinion, the Euro, after exiting from the triangle can decline a little more and then start to grow to the 1.0250 resistance level (1st TP). Then, the price will break this level and make a retest, after which continue to move up to 2nd TP - 1.0360 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Kiwi H4 | Rising into multi-swing-high resistanceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.5683 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.5745 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a descending trendline resistance.
Take profit is at 0.5540 which is a swing-low support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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How Do Traders Identify Overbought and Oversold Stocks?How Do Traders Identify Overbought and Oversold Stocks?
Identifying overbought and oversold stocks is a key part of technical analysis for traders. These conditions occur when a market’s price moves to extremes—either too high or too low—compared to its recent performance. By recognising these signals, traders can spot potential turning points in the market. This article explores what overbought and oversold stocks are, how to find them using technical indicators, and the risks involved in trading them.
What Is an Oversold Stock?
Oversold stocks are those that have experienced a significant price decline, often beyond what might seem reasonable based on their underlying value. This often happens when market sentiment is overly negative, even if the company’s fundamentals remain solid.
Several factors can lead to a stock becoming oversold. For instance, bad news about a company, such as a missed earnings report or legal troubles, can cause investors to sell off shares quickly. Broader market events, like economic downturns or changes in industry regulations, can also drive prices down across the board. Sometimes, even strong stocks get caught up in these waves of negativity.
The concept of overselling isn’t just about price falling, though—it’s about the potential for a reversal. When stocks fall too fast, too far compared to their actual financial performance or growth potential, this is where traders look for opportunities, analysing whether the market is poised for a potential recovery.
What Is an Overbought Stock?
Overbought stocks are those that have risen sharply in price, often to a point where they may no longer reflect the stock’s true value. When a stock is considered overbought, it means there’s been a lot of buying activity, pushing the price higher than what its fundamentals might justify. This often happens when market sentiment is extremely positive, driving demand even when shares may already be trading at high levels.
Several factors can lead to an overbought market. Sometimes, positive news about a company—such as strong earnings, new product launches, or positive analyst reports—can spark a wave of buying. Market-wide optimism, particularly during bullish phases, can also lead to an overbought stock market. Speculative buying, where traders hope to capitalise on short-term price movements, can further inflate the price.
Being overbought doesn’t necessarily mean the stock is due for an immediate correction, but it does suggest that the price may have gone too high, too quickly. The most overbought stocks are often viewed as being in a vulnerable position for a potential pullback, especially if there isn’t enough underlying support from the company’s financial health or growth prospects. Traders consider this an opportunity to sell stocks at potentially good prices.
How Traders Find Oversold and Overbought Stocks with Indicators
Traders use technical indicators to determine whether a stock might be undervalued (oversold) or overvalued (overbought) based on its price action. These indicators allow traders to assess whether a price movement has gone too far in one direction.
Technical indicators are tools that use historical price and volume data to measure things like price momentum and trend strength. When it comes to finding overbought or oversold stocks, momentum oscillators play a key role.
These oscillators measure the speed and magnitude at which an asset’s price is changing. If a market has been rising or falling too quickly, it could be a sign that it’s either overbought or oversold. Also, if a stock has moved too far away from its typical price range, it signals a possible reversal. Traders rely on indicators to determine when the price may be at an extreme, helping them find entry or exit points based on market conditions.
Now, let’s break down some of the most popular indicators used for this purpose.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used overbought and oversold indicators. The RSI is a momentum indicator that gauges how fast and how much a stock's price is moving. It gives traders a visual signal of when a stock may have been pushed too far in either direction.
RSI compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses to assess whether a stock is overbought or oversold. The indicator ranges from 0 to 100 and is typically used to evaluate whether a stock is moving too fast in either direction. If the RSI falls below 30, the stock is considered oversold, suggesting it could be undervalued and due for a bounce. If the RSI rises above 70, the stock is seen as in an overbought zone, potentially signalling a price correction on the horizon.
While RSI can be helpful, it’s essential to look at it in the context of the broader market. For example, in a strong bull market, a stock might remain overbought for an extended period. Similarly, during a downturn, stocks can stay oversold longer than expected.
Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is another momentum indicator. It compares a stock's closing price to its price range over a certain period. The idea behind this indicator is that in an uptrend, prices will close near their highs, and in a downtrend, prices will close near their lows.
The Stochastic Oscillator helps traders identify when a stock’s price has potentially moved too far in either direction relative to its recent range. It’s similar in principle to the RSI, except the Stochastic is considered more useful for detecting shorter-term reversals.
It’s especially useful for identifying overbought and oversold conditions because it moves within a range — between 0 and 100 — similar to the RSI. The Stochastic Oscillator is made up of two lines: %K, which is the primary line, and %D, a moving average of %K. When these lines are above 80, the stock is considered overbought. When they are below 20, it’s considered oversold.
Given its sensitivity, it’s common to see the Stochastic signals a market is overextended for a longer period when there’s a strong trend. This makes it more prone to false signals than the RSI or MACD indicator and typically more useful for trading pullbacks in a broader trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is another popular overbought and oversold indicator. Unlike the RSI, which focuses primarily on oversold vs overbought levels, MACD is more about trend strength and its direction. It shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price and can help identify potential shifts in momentum.
The MACD consists of two lines: the MACD line (which is the difference between the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages) and the signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it indicates a potential bullish reversal. When it crosses below, it signals a bearish reversal.
Since the lines are based on the difference between two EMAs, it’s also possible to gauge an overbought/oversold stock by examining the distance of the lines between their current values and the 0 midpoint. If the lines are far away from 0 and their historical averages, it could indicate a stock is overbought or oversold.
However, generally speaking, MACD is less about pinpointing specific overbought/oversold levels and more about identifying when momentum is shifting. A rapid crossover of the lines, especially after a strong move, can signal that a reversal might be near.
Considerations When Using Momentum Indicators
While momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD can be useful for spotting overextended stocks, there are a couple of key points to keep in mind when using these oversold and overbought indicators:
Divergences
A divergence occurs when the price moves in the opposite direction to the indicator. For example, if a stock is making higher highs but the indicator is making lower highs, this can signal weakening momentum and a possible reversal. Divergences offer another layer of insight, so it's worth paying attention to them alongside other factors.
Timeframes
Different timeframes can produce different results. An indicator that shows a stock is oversold on a daily chart might not show the same on a weekly chart. It's important to choose the right timeframe for your trading strategy, whether short-term or long-term. Generally, many traders take a top-down approach, allowing higher timeframe signals to better inform your analysis on lower timeframes.
Risks of Trading Oversold and Overbought Stocks
Trading oversold and overbought stocks can be appealing, as these conditions often suggest a potential reversal in price. However, there are some risks to consider when relying on these signals. A few important points to bear in mind include:
- False Signals: Just because a market is oversold or overbought doesn’t guarantee a reversal. Prices can continue to decline or rise despite what momentum indicators suggest. Traders need to be cautious about assuming that every extreme condition will result in a price correction.
- Extended Trends: In strong bullish or bearish trends, a stock can remain in overbought or oversold territory for longer than expected. This can lead to premature trades, where investors get in too early or expect a reversal that doesn’t come for a while.
- Market Sentiment: Sometimes, external factors like news events or broader economic conditions can overpower technical indicators. If there’s overwhelming optimism or pessimism in the market, a stock may continue in its overbought or oversold condition for longer than anticipated.
- Lack of Confirmation: Relying on a single indicator can be risky. It’s common to use multiple indicators or combine technical and fundamental analysis for a more balanced view. There may be no other supporting signals when a stock is oversold, meaning the trade carries higher risk.
The Bottom Line
Understanding overbought and oversold stocks, along with the indicators used to identify them, can help traders spot potential market opportunities. While these conditions may signal a reversal, it’s important to recognise there is no one best overbought and oversold indicator and use multiple tools for confirmation. Ready to apply these insights? Open an FXOpen account today to access more than 700 markets, including a huge range of stock CFDs, and four advanced trading platforms.
FAQ
What Is Overbought and Oversold?
Overbought and oversold are terms used to describe extreme price movements in markets. A stock is considered overbought when its price has risen rapidly and above its underlying value, which potentially makes it overvalued. It’s oversold when the price has fallen sharply and below its underlying value, which makes it undervalued. These conditions can signal that a price reversal may be coming, though they don’t guarantee it.
What Does It Mean for a Stock to Be Overbought?
The overbought stock meaning refers to a stock that has increased quickly and is potentially trading higher than its actual value. This often occurs due to strong demand or market optimism. Overbought conditions might signal that the price is at risk of a pullback.
What Does It Mean When a Stock Is Oversold?
The oversold stock meaning refers to a stock that has dropped significantly and may be below its true value. This often happens when there’s been excessive selling, and it could suggest that its price is due for a rebound.
How Can You Find Oversold Stocks?
Traders often use technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to find the most oversold stocks. An RSI reading below 30 typically suggests that a stock is oversold and may present a buying opportunity. Other indicators, like the Stochastic Oscillator, are also commonly used to identify oversold conditions.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.