Will the BTC downtrend continue? BTC has down trended for 6 months. When you look at the smaller charts it's less obvious because it's messy but when you look at the monthly chart it's clear as can be.
The upside wicks are all lower. The downside wicks are all lower. We've made a series of lower lows and lower highs since the false breakout.
If we break again, we're going to go through the level I marked as the critical break level while we were at the high.
Read old post here;
Real make or break level for BTC now. Would be a very good look for it if it could break the downtrend, but if we can't we might be getting close to the obvious yank on this.
We might have been a through a 6 month period of baiting. Bringing in the bulls before the turn. If that's what's happening, we'd be close now.
Community ideas
NVIDIA, parabolic move in progressIn my previous posts on NVIDIA, i mentioned that we are heading north and its likely going to get steep as we move ahead.
The larger term view is we are going to complete larger Wave 3(multi-year) and we are in last wave 5 of wave 3(Please refer to my other chart for larger term view).
Now i have tried to put Livermore Speculative chart on same chart and as of now its following it. I have two targets. These targets are 204 and 306 which i got from fibonacci levels.
This is not a trade recommendation or financial advise. Kindly consider proper risk management.
If you like the idea, kindly like, share and subscribe. :)
USDJPY - Trading The Ascending Triangle BreakoutAfter a nearly 2,000 pip plunge, USDJPY has found support & has started to reverse.
We ended the week not only violating an important level of previous structure resistance, but we also had a breakout & are currently retesting an ascending triangle.
This sets us up for a potential bullish (short-term) continuation opportunity & in this video I'll show you where I'm looking for price to potentially go to next.
Questions, Comments, or Views on this pair, please leave them below as I love to talk trading.
Hope you guys have a great weekend & keep you eyes out for more videos from me on this space.
Akil
How to Decode Market Days: Wide Range, Inside, and Outside DaysHey Traders! 👋
Let's break down some classic chart patterns that can clue you in on the market's next move. We're exploring Wide Range Days, Inside Days, and Outside Days today. These are your bread and butter for spotting potential volatility and directional shift s!
Wide Range Days (WRD)
These are the days when the market just can't sit still—volatility shoots through the roof, often without hitting new highs or lows.
Triggered by unexpected news or a sudden surge in order activity, a WRD can signal that a peak or pivotal reversal is near.
💡 Tip: If the market closes near the high or low of a WRD, it’s a strong hint at continued movement in that direction. But remember, extreme moves often lead to a pause or reversal as the market catches its breath.
Outside Days
An Outside Day steps out of the shadow of the previous day, with a high higher and a low lower than the day before.
This pattern often hints at a reversal, especially if it comes with high volatility.
💡 Keep in Mind: An Outside Day with low volatility and only slightly larger than the previous day is a weaker signal. It’s crucial to consider the context—what was the market like leading up to this?
Inside Days
📈 Why They Matter:
Inside Days are like the market taking a time-out, staying within the range set by the previous day.
This pattern usually signals a decrease in volatility and can indicate a consolidation phase after a big move.
Trading Strategy: Post-explosive move, if all the action has attracted everyone likely to buy in, the price might be too steep for new players, leading to a stagnant or reversing trend once the news fades or the market reevaluates.
Wrapping It Up 🙌
Single-day patterns are just pieces of the larger market puzzle. They’re common but need discerning eyes to interpret correctly. Always corroborate these patterns with other indicators and market context to enhance your trading strategy.
Remember, trading is not just about recognizing patterns but understanding the market's language. Keep refining your approach and stay ahead of the curve. Happy trading!
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements to Find Entry and Exit PointsAlright, traders, let’s talk about Fibonacci Retracements — the tool that’s part math, part mysticism, and all about finding those sweet spots for entry and exit. If you’ve ever wondered how seasoned traders seem to know exactly when to jump in and when to cash out, chances are they’ve got Fibonacci retracements in their toolbox (or they’re insider trading).
What Are Fibonacci Retracements?
Fibonacci Retracements are based on the famous Fibonacci sequence — a string of numbers discovered in the 1200s by the medieval Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa (later nicknamed Fibonacci, meaning "son of Bonacci"). The sequence of numbers starts with 1, 2, 3, 5 and grows by adding the sum of the two previous numbers.
These mystical numbers show up everywhere from pinecones and seashells to the human hand and the Apple logo and, of course, the charts. It all comes down to 61.8%, the golden child of market moves and corrections. But before you go off believing Fibonacci is some sort of market sorcerer, let’s break it down.
The Key Levels
23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6% : These are the Fibonacci retracement levels you’ll see on your chart when you whip up the Fibonacci Retracement. They’re acting as the market’s pit stops — areas where the price could take a breather or reverse altogether.
Traders use these levels to predict how far a price might pull back before resuming its trend. Put simply, it’s like finding the market’s sweet spot where it says, “Enough with the chit-chat, let’s bounce.”
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements
Identify the Trend : First, you need a clear trend — trace a price trajectory and make sure there is a well-defined and sustained move either up or down with a clear reversal at the end. No trend? No Fibonacci.
Draw the Retracement : Stretch the Fib tool from the start of the move (swing low) to the end (swing high). If the trend is up, draw from low to high. If it’s down, high to low. Watch as those golden ratios light up your chart like a Christmas tree. Now you’ve got your levels mapped out and you can easily start looking for the potential turning points.
Spot the Bounce : The series of horizontal lines on your chart — these are your Fibonacci levels, and they’re not just pretty—they’re potential support and resistance zones. When the price retraces to a Fib level, it’s decision time. Will it bounce, or will it break? The 61.8% level is the big one — the golden ratio. If the price holds there, it may be a sign that the trend could continue. If it breaks, well, it’s time to reassess. Think of it as the market’s line in the sand.
Finding Entry Points
Here’s where it gets interesting. Imagine the market’s been on a bull run, but then starts to pull back. You’re itching to buy, but where? This is where Fibonacci levels shine.
When the price retraces to a key Fibonacci level (say 38.2% or 50%), it’s like the market is pausing to catch its breath. That’s your cue to consider entering a position. You’re aiming to ride the next wave up once the market finishes its coffee break at one of these levels.
Nailing Exit Points
On the flip side, if you’re already in a trade and looking to lock in profits, those same Fibonacci levels can be your guide for exiting. If the price is approaching a key level from below, it might be time to secure your gains before the market pulls another U-turn.
For the bold and brave, you can even set your sights on the 161.8% level — this is where Fibonacci extensions come into play. It’s a target for when the market decides it’s not just going to bounce, but rocket into the stratosphere.
Pro Tip: Fib Confluence
Looking to up your game? Combine Fibonacci with other indicators like moving averages or trendlines. When multiple signals converge around a Fib level, it may be a strong confirmation that the trend could turn. Pay attention and always do your own research — fakeouts are real.
Why It Works (and Why It Doesn't)
Some say Fibonacci levels work because they’re rooted in natural mathematics. Others believe it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy because so many traders use them. And just like any strategy, it doesn’t work 100% of the time. The market has a mind of its own, and sometimes it just doesn’t care about your Fibonacci levels. But when they do work, they can give you a serious edge.
The Bottom Line
Fibonacci Retracements aren’t just a bunch of lines on a chart — they’re your reminder that maybe everything is indeed one from the universe’s perspective and there are naturally occurring patterns everywhere.
Whether you believe in the math and the or just like the results, one thing’s for sure: Fibs can give you an edge in spotting when to hold back or lean forward. So next time you’re stuck wondering when to buy or sell, try the Fibonacci.
Crypto and Bitcoin Market Update - Price Forecasts and MoreIn this video, I cover where I think the markets go next, including Bitcoin, ETH and Solana.
And how the NASDAQ:IBIT has become similar to the !CME in terms of how price tends to fill any gaps.
Nobody else is talking about this, but see for yourself and start tracking the IBIT gaps on a 4 Hour chart -- You'll be amazed.
I also share potential paths, likely a dip first, then push higher toward ATH.
And a new study I've been refining based on liquidity and timing cycles, showing we're very close to a major move upward in Bitcoin and the rest of the market.
Howerver, I feel the biggest bang for your $ will be BTC, SOL, and ETH from here.
Let me know what you think, and please like the video.
Entering into a resistance zone, watching for support to hold Ahoy, fellow chart sailors! 🚢
Looks like we're steering into some resistance waters at the moment. Here's the treasure map for today:
The Resistance: We're bumping up against a notorious resistance level. Will it be the plank or will we sail through?
Support Ahoy: Keep your telescopes on the support lines. If we start to sink, these are the levels where we might find some buoyancy.
Volume Waves: Keep an eye on the trading volume. A surge could mean we're about to discover new lands (breakout), or it might just be a siren's song.
Signal Flags: My indicators are fluttering in the wind. The RSI is hinting we might be overbought, but the MACD still waves the bullish flag. What flags are you flying?
Trading Tactics:
Bullish Buccaneers: If you're on the long voyage, maybe set your stop-loss anchors just below the key support.
Bearish Brigands: If you're looking to short, wait for the cannons to confirm a breach below support.
What's your game plan as we sail through this resistance? Drop your thoughts below! Let's navigate these waters together. 🌊
Keep your wits about you and may your trades be ever in your favor!
Let's share our charts and insights. After all, a rising tide lifts all boats!
GOOG Analysis: Short Opportunity on the Horizon?Hello Traders,
I'm sharing my analysis for GOOG, breaking it down in the simplest way possible.
Wave Patterns:
The previous upward trend lasted 3x as long as the recent downtrend, which was 2x. By dividing the last uptrend into three equal periods (3x), I projected the future downtrend (2x) to mirror the previous wave structure (5x total: 3x uptrend and 2x downtrend). Based on this, I expect the downtrend that began on July 8, 2024, to potentially conclude around August 25, 2025.
Regression Channel:
I've drawn the main regression channel on the weekly chart. GOOG's price recently bounced from the channel's upper deviation line, dropping from 190 to 155, which is near the channel's middle line. I anticipate it could reach 175 before continuing downward, forming a new downtrend.
Conclusion:
Given these observations, I see a promising short opportunity, targeting the channel's lower deviation at 127.
Let's keep a close watch on this setup!
NASDAQ:GOOG
AMD Rose 20% in Two Weeks. Here Is What Its Chart ShowsAdvanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD has gained some 20% in the past two weeks, rising in part on news of plans to buy privately held server maker ZT Systems for $4.9 billion. Where does technical analysis say the stock might go from here?
The ZT acquisition, which AMD announced on Monday, appears to be all about keeping up with Wall Street darling Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA in the hot area of generative artificial intelligence, or “AI.”
Chips designed by firms like AMD and NVDA perform all of the calculations that make generative AI possible. They are the brains of a network that stitches a multitude of servers together inside a data center.
AMD is buying ZT for its expertise in this space, paying 75% cash and 25% stock in a deal the company expects to close next year.
The company said in a statement announcing the deal that it plans to divest the part of ZT that manufactures servers, which is currently ZT’s primary revenue-producing business. AMD appears to just want ZT’s AI people.
Now, AMD seems unlikely to catch Nvidia any time soon in the data center/cloud/AI race. But the ZT deal could help the company remain No. 2 in the space, biding its time and staying relevant and competitive.
AMD has already come a long way since Lisa Su took over as president and CEO in 2014 (and as board chair in 2022).
First it was PCs and CPUs, as AMD over time stole market share from once-dominant Intel $NASDAQ:INTC. Next AMD focused on gaming, GPUs and the data center.
Now the company is taking aim at generative AI, once again doggedly pursuing an industry giant (NVDA) that has a big lead -- and an even bigger reputation. The game afoot only grows more complex, and the technology more advanced as time goes on.
AMD’s Fundamentals
As for fundamentals, AMD still has two months until it reports results for the current quarter in late October.
Last month, the company posted second-quarter earnings that beat the Street on both the top and adjusted bottom lines, with 9% year-over-year sales growth.
For the current quarter, the Street currently expects to see 32% year-on-year earnings growth and 16% revenue gains. If achieved, the results could represent AMD’s hottest quarter for sales growth since 2022, as well as its best earnings growth in even longer than that.
Of course, AMD’s data center will have to lead if that’s going to happen, and Wall Street would like to see the company’s gap with Nvidia close just a bit among the firm’s higher-tech chips.
AMD’s Technicals
In the meantime, what might AMD’s chart tell us? Let’s take a look at where things stood as of Tuesday:
The chart above shows a so-called “falling wedge” pattern, which historically denotes a bullish reversal.
This pattern began back in March and continues to the present. Readers will also note that AMD has just retaken its 50-Day Simple Moving Average (the blue line in the chart above) and is now trying to retake its 200-day Simple Moving Average (the red line) as well. That makes the 200-Day SMA the stock’s current pivot point -- $156.78 as of Tuesday.
In support of this set-up, AMD has a Relative Strength Index reading of 60, as denoted by the gray line above. That’s strong but not technically overbought, and is still rising in the chart above.
We also have a Daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) where the histogram of AMD’s 9-Day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the blue bars at the bottom of the chart above) is already in positive territory.
Meanwhile, AMD’s 12-day EMA (the black line above) has already crossed over the 26-Day EMA (the gold line). This crossover is typically a bullish sign, and would mean even more if the two averages were already in positive territory to go along with the stock’s positive 9-Day EMA.
That's not very far from happening. Perhaps a push above the 200-Day SMA would bring in some capital if portfolio managers felt forced to increase their exposure.
(Full disclosure: Moomoo Markets Commentator Stephen Guilfoyle was long both AMD and NVDA at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
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Nvidia Q2 2024 Earnings PreviewAI Juggernaut Nvidia’s highly anticipated Q2 2024 earnings report is just one week away, scheduled for release after the market closes on Thursday, 29 August, at 6.20 am (AEST).
Q2 performance expectations
Revenue: $28.544 billion
Revenue growth: 211.31% year-on-year (YoY)
Earnings per share (EPS): $0.64.
Highlights of the previous quarter
Expectations are high for Nvidia’s Q2 earnings, given the company’s leadership in several key growth markets. Over the past year, Nvidia has experienced significant demand across various end markets, driven primarily by data centres and gaming.
In data centres, the adoption of AI and machine learning has propelled strong sales of Nvidia’s specialised GPUs and networking products. Additionally, the company has benefited from shifting enterprise workloads to the cloud. NVidia’s gaming segment continues to thrive, supported by the rise of eSports, game streaming services, and blockbuster game releases optimised for NVIDIA hardware.
What to expect
Nvidia’s data centre segment, which includes sales of GPUs, networking gear, and AI software, is expected to grow further as major hyperscale customers like Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet GCP increasingly adopt Nvidia chips for AI workloads.
Ongoing demand for Nvidia’s latest GPUs for gaming and creative applications is anticipated to remain a key driver of revenue growth.
Nvidia’s automotive computing platforms are gaining traction with more electric and autonomous vehicle manufacturers, further boosting demand for the company’s chips. Additionally, the company’s Omniverse 3D simulation platform has seen triple-digit customer growth over the past year, indicating potential future gains in enterprise software.
Potential challenges to watch for
Supply chain constraints: while improving, may still limit upside potential. If foundry and component shortages persist, Nvidia might struggle to meet elevated demand, which could disappoint investors.
A slowdown in the PC market: due to challenging macroeconomic conditions may weaken performance in the graphics segment, dampening overall earnings growth.
Economic uncertainty: could also curb business spending if conditions deteriorate, disproportionately affecting Nvidia's data centre and enterprise segments.
Increasing competition: from companies like AMD and Intel, which are also investing heavily in AI-focused chips, along with big tech and automotive firms developing their own AI chips, could potentially reduce demand for Nvidia’s offerings.
Despite these risks, Wall Street remains bullish on Nvidia stock heading into the Q2 earnings report. Investors are focused on Nvidia’s long-term potential in AI, high-performance computing, autonomous vehicles, and the metaverse. Success in these areas is expected to drive share price momentum post-earnings.
Nvidia Technical Analysis
Nvidia’s share price is up over 159% year-to-date and has almost fully recovered its 35% drop from June to August. The recovery puts Nvidia’s all-time high of $140.76 firmly in focus in the lead-up to next week's earnings, with a sustained break above here opening the way for a push towards $150. On the downside, there is a strong band of support at $100 before the $90.69 low of early August. Not far below here resides the 200-day moving average at $85.26.
Gold at a Crossroads: Breakout or Sharp Correction Ahead for XAU1. Daily Time Frame (1D)
Channel Formation: The daily chart shows an ascending channel, indicating a consistent upward trend. This structure suggests that gold has been gradually gaining strength over time, with higher highs and higher lows.
Key Levels:
2,507.90: Price is hovering near this key resistance, close to the upper boundary of the channel. This is also near a 15M Liquidity Zone (LQZ), making it a potential reversal point if the price cannot break through decisively.
2,500.953 and 2,477.895: These are marked as 4H Liquidity Zones (LQZ), providing support within the current channel. A drop below these levels could signal a deeper pullback towards the Daily LQZ at 2,352.710.
2. 4-Hour Time Frame (4H)
Continuation Pattern: The 4H chart mirrors the ascending channel visible on the daily chart. The price is currently testing the resistance area, and there is potential for a pullback if it fails to break above.
Liquidity Zones:
2,507.180: This is a 15-minute LQZ, very close to the current price.
2,500.953: A more significant 4H LQZ is just below the 15M LQZ. The confluence of these zones adds weight to the potential for a reversal or a strong move if this area is breached.
3. 15-Minute Time Frame (15M)
Rejection and Potential Correction: On the 15-minute chart, there is a small rising wedge pattern that appears to be breaking down, indicating a potential short-term reversal. The price is rejecting the upper boundary of the wedge, suggesting that a correction could follow.
Trade Opportunity: A break below 2,500.953 (15M LQZ) could lead to a sharper move down towards 2,477.895 (4H LQZ). This aligns with the larger time frame structures, adding credibility to this potential move.
4. 5-Minute Time Frame (5M)
Immediate Reaction: The 5-minute chart shows a rejection of the upper boundary of the ascending channel and a possible small head and shoulders pattern developing. This further supports the bearish outlook in the very short term.
Potential Targets: If the pattern plays out, a move towards 2,500.953 and below would align with the bearish scenarios on the higher time frames.
Conclusion
Short-Term Bearish Bias: Across all time frames, there's a consistent pattern of the price rejecting key resistance areas, particularly near 2,507.90 (15M LQZ) and 2,500.953 (4H LQZ). This suggests that the price may correct downward before any further attempts to break higher.
Watch for Confirmations: If the price breaks below the 4H LQZ at 2,477.895, it could indicate a deeper pullback, possibly towards the daily LQZ at 2,352.710. However, a strong bounce from the current support levels could resume the upward trend.
This analysis aligns with the multi-touch confirmation approachand the rule of three, which emphasizes the importance of repeated touches on a trendline or key level before confirming a breakout or reversal.
USDJPY 20m Short-term Short Analysis
Strategy preconditions
USDJPY 20m chart, the downtrend strength has not completely depleted, we can still take some final Short trades before potential ranging or reverse begins.
There are 2 Short strategies to go about, the first one is more risky while the second is safer and more rewarding.
1. Directly enter Short around the 20m resistance level 145.544, as the blue prediction shows. SL can be set below the "Caution level", TP at 144.520, do not be greedy for this trade, since the market can reverse quickly. I sense already that the momentum starts slowing down. This trade is more risky because we'll ignore additional LTF downward BOS confirmation, instead, we take Short directly when the 20m resistance is reached.
2. if we see that before the market reaches the 20m resistance, it has formed a relatively more bumpy and slower pattern shown by the purple prediction, we then wait for a clean LTF downward BOS confirmation and pullback prior to our Short entry. SL can be set above the entry area, and TP in this case can be more greedy at 1H level 144.147, which seems pretty clean in 20m chart as well.
Cautions
For the second strategy, if the "Caution level" is reached before any LTF downward BOS confirmation has formed, we must abandon this strategy, and start re-analysing the whole thing. In that case, I think the market will start ranging.
For the first strategy, if the "Caution level" is reached first, then it is a loss.
I know that the downtrend on 20m chart seems promising, but do NOT be greedy and think about some daily TP far below. We only take profit that we do understand.
Is the USD selloff too aggressive? Bond yields suggest soTraders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
BLUE DART EXPRESS | 100% returns | Breakout of 9-year resistanceBLUE DART EXPRESS
Monthly time frame
Breakout from 9-year white resistance trend line
Breakout from perfect cup & handle pattern
Stock riding above 20-, 50- & 200-month moving averages
RSI > 60, indicating bullish momentum
MACD crossover done and is above the 0 line, indicating bullish momentum
Volumes have been good since Apr 2020, implies heavy buying
Weekly time frame
Retest of the white resistance trend line almost complete
Stock riding above 20-, 50- & 200-week moving averages
RSI > 60, indicating bullish momentum
MACD above the 0 line, indicating bullish momentum
Daily time frame
Stock consolidating along the white resistance trend line
Stock has made a higher low (Dow theory)
Stock price converging along 20- & 50- day moving averages, breakout possible
RSI > 50, indicating bullish momentum
MACD is about to cross the 0 line, indicating momentum build up
Conclusion
Entry: 8,000
Stop Loss: 6,700
Target 1: 9,600
Target 2: 12,150
Target 3: 16,275
Fundamentals
ROCE = 19.2% {Ideal > 15}
ROE = 22.7% {Ideal > 15}
Stock PE (65) = Industry PE (65) {Stock not overvalued}
Int Coverage = 5.81 {Ideal > 2}
CF Operations / EBIT = 1.83 {Ideal > 1}
Debt to equity = 0.78 {Ideal value < 1}
Promoter stake has remained consistent over the years > 75%
A simple Stock strategy to trade with edge!A simple, profitable strategy.
If you’re struggling to trade profitability and searching for the ‘Holy Grail’ of trading strategies, then you’re in luck. I’ve got it for you….
DON’T SHORT STOCKS!
Well, that’s it in a nutshell. I will elaborate, but please read on because this was a game changer for me. It sounds too simple. Honestly, my win/loss ratio has improved , and my hairline has stopped receding.
The simplistic rationale for long only
1. Just look at the S&P500 chart since 2010. It is statistically impossible to lose money if you only buy.
2. People want to buy stocks! It’s just a fact. Everyone in the world is investing in stocks, whether it's for their retirement, their children's ISAs, speculating through the 30 apps on their smartphones, or visiting their local bank, with the aim of beating inflation and outperforming savings accounts.
3. During the most significant event of my life, the infamous COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P500 experienced a 30% decline, causing the world to stop, businesses to close, and a sense of impending doom! The S&P is now up 60%, reaching an all-time high!
4. The buy-only mentality, when combined with simple technical analysis, can eliminate 50% of trade ideas, clear your mind, reduce 50% of stress, and, as stated in Point 1, enhance your edge.
5. Most importantly, stocks are an appreciating asset; they want to go up. A company's entire purpose is to grow!
Okay, so that’s a really simple rationale. I get that some stocks do go down during market corrections or natural ebbs and flows; we want market pullbacks. We could go into boring stats like volatility and liquidity, etc., but the key point is that stocks go up! I can’t emphasise this enough.
The simple strategy
My strategy applies to stock indexes (US500, US100, etc.) as well as individual stocks; however, indexes are easier, in my opinion. I would recommend sticking to well-known stocks that fit this complex filter. Is it likely to fail? Here are some recent stocks I have traded using this filter. McDonald's (MCD) and Go Daddy's (GDDY)
We've already decided to focus solely on long-only trades, so how do we begin? We chase momentum using these complex , simple technical tools.
1. The daily price must be above these simple moving averages (SMA): 20, 50, 100 = momentum!
2. 4-hour price above these simple moving averages (SMA) of 20, 50, 100= short-term momentum.
3. Avoid trading at major resistance levels.
4. Enter trades on a 4-hour chart; don’t over-analyse.
5. Take profits.
To fine-tune an entry, you can apply this extremely simple framework to any existing TA skills, candlestick patterns (bullish engulfing, ABC pullback, pinbar, etc.), or market structure.
Here are some examples of trade entries on MCD, GDDY, and SPX. Follow the framework and keep your trading simple.
TESLA SUPERCHARGER STATIONS THINKING OF GOING BIG''TESLA is building the unique destination for Tesla owners, including a two story restaurant with a seating for over 200 diners and separate theater area that accommodates up to 77 guest" TESLA Canada said and Tesla hs recently published its first job opening for the diner. Technically this is in a rising wedge and I am long from the current support. BUYS ARE COMING
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction
Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions.
Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations.
▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV
DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options.
DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange.
BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set.
* In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same.
▮ Interpreting the chart
🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events.
🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease.
🔶 Low values indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets.
🔶 To get an idea of the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%.
🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points.
🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top.
🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom.
▮ Example
The price of BTC here is at the top in white.
The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red.
The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret.
On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation.
In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline.
When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized.
Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box.
▮ Conclusion
Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements.
Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk.
⚠️ But remember:
Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever.
Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability.
Do your own analysis and risk management.
MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023.
The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point.
Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High.
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Bitcoin: Play Support/Resistance Or Stay Away.Bitcoin has established a higher low off the 56K support area as anticipated in my previous article. From here a test of the 62 to 64K resistance area is within reason over the coming week. No matter what information you consume, the price action at this time is clear: Bitcoin is still INSIDE a broad consolidation. This means UNTIL it can demonstrate a breakout one way or the other with conviction, it is best to anticipate the consolidation to continue. This means paying attention to action around notable support/resistance levels that are relevant to your strategy time frame.
In the markets, there is a tendency for "history to repeat itself". I understand this to mean the human behavioral element behind the price action. I mention this because if you notice, the low 64K area has numerous repetitive reactions over the previous few months (see arrow). The reason why does not matter, what matters is that there is a particular kind of price action around a level that can be anticipated in the near future. How you utilize this information will depend on your strategy specifically. For example, if you are looking for day trades you may not use it the same way as someone looking for swing trades, etc.
Another aspect to keep in mind is the fact that we are now entering into the SLOWEST time of the year in terms of participation and volume. Weeks 3 and 4 of August are usually slow, erratic and very tough to navigate particularly on smaller time frames. Volume usually returns back to normal by the first week of October. This is NOT precise, but a tendency that I have observed over the years. This means it is usually better to be more selective about setups, take more time off and/or paper trade more. Low volume does not imply bearishness per se, but it can increase the chances of slow grinds either way, lack of follow through, price spikes that fake out, etc.
Play the support/resistance or don't play at all. When operating on smaller time frames you can consider this situation from both sides. Look for confirmation of momentum continuation patterns on the long side until price reaches the 62 to 64K area. From there look for confirmations of bearish reversals. "Confirmations" is synonymous with "signals" generated by my Trade Scanner Pro.
When markets consolidate like this, technical analysis can help immensely when it comes to evaluating potential, risk and probability. I repeat this often, this is NOT about forecasting the future, it is about using previous information to identify potential and measuring the associated risk. This is what CONTEXT is all about and where trade ideas begin. To have chance of winning you must be able to anticipate while at the same time account for the possibility of being wrong. This is NOT about hunches, feelings, opinions or logic. It is all about being a good "listener" of the market because it is ALWAYS right.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Lessons From my Losses August 19th 2024 Today the price action again was not ideal. I talk about not getting into trades based on FOMO and overtrading, which I did today. I am a little upset with myself as I was not disciplined. I showed a trade with great confirmation on the 15-minute chart I missed. Let me know what you guys think in the comments and tell me about how your trading went today!
