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SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days. If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week. Watch the video I created this morning to learn more. This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
What about altcoins, will the "BULLRUN" begin !What about altcoins, will the "BULLRUN" begin ! In this review: >Others Marktecap >Total2 Marketcap >Total3 Marketcap >Others Dominance >BTC Dominanace >ETH/BTC >ETHUSD many forms >ETHUSD/NVDA Lets start with Others Marketcap --We see that the volume is slowly increasing in the retest zone. this is positive for us. When we examine the Rsı levels, we see that it is at the covid level. for such an index, this is "oversold" RSI(14) 1w and Gaussian Channel CM Slingshot and LMACD -------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL2 Marketcap 1w level 1= Accumaltion Trend mildline level 2= Bullrun 1008 passed from the summit to today. That's enough :D Total2 with Keltner Channel ----------------------------- Total3 Marketcap "SAME" 2020 vs 2024 ! -------------------------- Others Dominance is waiting for the UP movement at the channel bottom leve =) ----------------------------------------- ETH/BTC 1w 2016-2024 ------------------ ETHUSD CHart 1/5 Ethereum Log Curve Zones Chart 2/5 RSI Level and 1008 days 2020 vs 2024 Chart 3/5 Keltner Channel // Top, Bottom and Retest zones Chart 4/5 -Bullrun EVE Chart 5/5 CYCLE chart ( just some MATH:D) Parallel Channel MODE ------------------------------------------ TOTAL2/Nasdaq 3...2...1... GO ! ---------------------------------------- ETHUSD/NVIDIA Its Ready =) When you analyse all these chart, the following rings in your head: >>>ALTSEASON is inevitable.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Cryptollica
18
Think in Probabilities Embracing Uncertainty Your Key To SuccessPicture this: You’re at your trading desk, eyes on the charts, heart pounding as the market swings unpredictably. Do you feel that fear creeping in? Now, imagine knowing that this unpredictability doesn’t have to scare you. Instead, it can be the key to your success. Let's dive into why thinking in probabilities and staying calm in the face of uncertainty can turn trading from a gamble into a calculated path to consistent success. Many traders struggle with uncertainty because they lack a solid, tested system. Trading randomly or without a proven strategy leads to anxiety and inconsistency. But once you have a reliable system that suits your lifestyle and mindset, and you fully understand your edge, you realize that while the outcome of each trade is random, the probabilities of your trading system will work out for you over time. The Role of Probabilities in Trading Trading isn’t about predicting the next big market move; it’s about understanding the odds and working them to your advantage. Each trade is a small part of a larger statistical framework, where the focus shifts from individual outcomes to the bigger picture. Why Is Learning To Think In Probabilities So Important For Trading Success? Reduces Emotional Bias : By thinking in probabilities, you understand that each trade is just one in a series of many. This helps reduce emotional reactions to individual losses or gains, such as revenge trading, doubling up on position sizing, or even smashing your new iPhone against the wall (been there, LOL). For example, if you know that your strategy wins 60% of the time, you won't be devastated by a single loss. You'll see it as part of the statistical outcome. Encourages Rational Decision-Making: Knowing your strategy has an actual edge helps you stick to your plan, even during losing streaks, and avoid impulsive decisions. To know your edge, you need to do plenty of backtesting and forward testing so you can gain confidence in the system. For instance, if you experience a string of losses, understanding that this is normal and statistically probable helps you remain disciplined and not deviate from your strategy. Builds Confidence in Your System : Confidence comes from knowing your strategy is backtested and has a proven edge over a large number of trades. This knowledge helps you stay disciplined and focused on executing your plan. For example, if your backtesting shows a positive expectancy over 1,000 trades, you can trust your system even when short-term results are unfavorable. Things That Have Helped Me Over the Years to Deal With the Uncertainty of Trading Finding or Developing a System/Strategy That Suits You : As humans, we are all different, and this is especially true in trading. Some people are happy to be in and out of the market fast (scalpers) and have the ability to make big decisions quickly under pressure. Others are slower thinkers and like to make decisions carefully, staying in the market for a longer period of time (swing traders). You need to find what you're best at and stick to it. If you have a busy life with work and family, maybe swing trading suits you. If you’re younger and not as busy, then perhaps scalping is your style. Playing Strategy Games and Games of Chance : This may not be something you've heard before, but I've met many traders, including myself, who have found that games like poker can really help your trading by teaching you to think in probabilities. Another game I love to play is chess, as it encourages you to think ahead, and I’ve found it has helped me in my trading over the years. Practicing Visualization : If you've ever read anything on the subconscious mind, you know it’s responsible for 95% of all your automatic behaviors, especially in trading. The subconscious doesn’t distinguish between what is real and what is imagined. This is why visualization is such a powerful tool to help you embrace market uncertainty. By visualizing yourself placing trades confidently, managing risks well, and handling outcomes calmly, you prepare your mind for real trading scenarios. This mental practice reinforces your belief in your system and prepares you for the market's ups and downs. Books That Helped Me Think in Probabilities Reading has been an invaluable part of my journey to understanding probabilities. Here are some books that have profoundly impacted my trading mindset: "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman This book helped me understand how cognitive biases affect decision-making and how to overcome them by thinking more strategically. "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Taleb's insights into the role of chance and randomness in our lives and the markets were eye-opening and changed how I view risk and probability. "Beat the Dealer" by Edward O. Thorp Although this book is about blackjack, Thorp’s exploration of probability and statistics offers valuable lessons for trading. "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky Sklansky breaks down the mathematics of poker, showing how to make decisions based on probability, a skill directly applicable to trading. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham This classic on value investing emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking and understanding market probabilities. "A Man for All Markets" by Edward O. Thorp This autobiography offers a fascinating look at how Thorp applied probability theory to beat the casino and the stock market. "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind" by Yuval Noah Harari Harari’s book provides context on human behavior and decision-making, offering insights into the psychological elements of trading. "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver Silver’s exploration of how we can better understand predictions and probabilities is highly relevant to making informed trading decisions. "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner This book teaches how to improve forecasting skills through careful analysis and thinking in probabilities. Thinking in probabilities was a game-changer for me. It shifted my focus from trying to predict every market move to playing the long game. By embracing this mindset, I turned fear into confidence and uncertainty into strategy. Remember, trading isn’t about guessing the market. It’s about responding with a clear, composed mind. Trust your strategy, know your edge, and let the probabilities work in your favor. This approach transformed my trading journey, and it can do the same for you. Happy trading!
Education
by TheFxAce
13
Jobs Data Giving Recession Vibe. Is the Fed Late to Act (Again)?Why does it seem like the Fed is playing catch-up with the economy? In 2021 and 2022, the US central bank was jamming stimulus at a fast clip. Suddenly it stopped and reversed course to raise interest rates at never-before-seen speed (that’s when officials were saying inflation was transitory). Now, the skyrocketing interest rates are threatening to derail the economy. Or worse — throw it in a recession. The red-hot US labor market is no more. Or at least there wasn’t anything red-hot for America’s workers and job seekers in July (except for maybe the coast-to-coast summer heat). And now financial markets are in limbo. America’s employers added just 114,000 new hires to the workforce — a far cry from the expected 174,000 and even that consensus view was soft. The bigger-then expected slump in US jobs growth fanned concerns over a flailing economy and there was one major player to pin the blame on — the Federal Reserve. What’s the Fed? The Federal Reserve, or just the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Its daily grind is to keep the economy from veering off a cliff or overheating like a meme stock on WallStreetBets. The Fed is currently headed by Jerome Powell, or Jay Powell, or even JPow if you’re cool enough, and serves a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. For about a year, markets have been building up the conviction that the Federal Reserve should start thinking about cutting rates. But for months, the Fed didn’t even think about talking about cutting rates as a flurry of economic indicators was more or less suggesting that one slash might be a good idea. And now markets fear it may be too late for that. The steep drop in the employment figure for July suggested that the economy has started to crack under the pressure of interest rates sitting at a 23-year high of 5.50%. When rates are high they make borrowing more expensive and discourage businesses and consumers from taking out loans to run their lives better. Instead, they shove their cash in deposit accounts and generate passive, risk-free yield. In a nutshell, high rates = economic contraction; low rates = economic expansion. When rates stay higher for longer, the Fed runs the risk of tilting the economy into the very recession it is fiercely trying to avoid. Talk About Bad Timing The timing for that jobs data couldn’t have been more inconvenient. July’s nonfarm payrolls arrived just two days after the Fed praised the growth of the economy and voted against reducing its benchmark interest rate. To defend this decision, Chairman Jay Powell said that his clique of top central bankers need more good data that shows inflation is heading down toward the bank’s 2% goal. He also went on to say that he “wouldn’t like to see material further cooling in the labor market.” The press conference after that rate call did end on a high note. The Fed boss noted that an interest rate cut was on the table at the next meeting slated for mid-September. The issue, however, is whether a single 25-basis-point cut, as communicated, will be enough. Markets have already ramped up bets for a juicier 50-basis-point reduction to borrowing costs — a more aggressive monetary policy measure that will provide a stronger lean against a faltering economy. And while the difference between jobs added and jobs expected might be a factor, the severe pullback seems more about investors throwing a tantrum. "You should've cut rates, now deal with our unusually strong reaction as we make a statement," kind of play. The painful scenario where the Fed may have fallen behind the curve shook Wall Street and spread into global markets. Stocks in the US are in a free fall. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped into correction territory, dropping 10% from its peak in mid-July. Tech giants , the main driver of the broad-based gains across the major US indexes, are heavily battered. But the selloff is widespread, jolting everything from stocks , to the US dollar to Bitcoin . Add to this an earnings season weighed by investor concerns over spending on artificial intelligence and you’ve got quite a few things to consider before you jump into your favorite stock out there. What Do You Think? Do you think the Fed will trim rates by a bigger 50-basis-point cut in September or even introduce an urgent interest rate cut before their next regular meeting? And are you comfortable betting on beaten-down equities across the board? Let us know your comments below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
Does the Market Rally When the Fed Begins to Cut Rates?The relationship between rate cuts and the stock market, as illustrated in the provided graph, shows that major market declines often occur after the Federal Reserve pivots to lower interest rates. This pattern is evident in historical instances where the Fed's rate cuts were followed by significant drops in the S&P 500. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon, which are crucial for investors to understand. Economic Weakness: Rate cuts typically respond to economic slowdown or anticipated recession. Each instance of the Fed pivoting to lower rates (1969, 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007, 2019) corresponds to significant market declines soon after. Rate cuts signal concerns about economic health, causing investors to lose confidence, as reflected in the graph. Delayed Impact: Rate cuts do not immediately stimulate the economy; it takes time for their effects to propagate. The graph shows that the majority of the market decline occurs after the Fed's pivot, indicating that initial rate cuts were insufficient to halt the downturn. During this lag period, the market may continue to decline as economic data reflects ongoing weakness. Investor Sentiment: Rate cuts can trigger fear among investors, who interpret the move as an indication of severe economic issues. The graph shows substantial percentage drops in the S&P 500 following each pivot, demonstrating how negative sentiment can exacerbate declines. The fear of a worsening economy leads to a sell-off in stocks, contributing to further market drops. Credit Conditions: During economic stress, banks may tighten lending standards, reducing the effectiveness of rate cuts. Post-rate cut periods in the graph align with times of economic stress, where credit conditions likely tightened. Businesses and consumers may not be able to take advantage of lower borrowing costs, limiting economic recovery and impacting the market negatively. Historical examples such as the crises in 2000 and 2007 highlight substantial market drops after rate cuts, as seen in the graph. In both cases, the rate cuts responded to bursting bubbles (tech bubble in 2000, housing bubble in 2007), and the economic fallout was too severe for rate cuts to provide immediate relief. The graph underscores that while rate cuts aim to stimulate the economy, they often follow significant economic downturns. Investors should be cautious, recognizing that initial market reactions to rate cuts can be negative due to perceived economic weakness, delayed policy impact, and deteriorating sentiment.
SP:SPXEducation
by MarkitMaven
5
Panic selling? I'm buying!A triangle is drawn, accumulation which came after active growth, I expect the trend to continue Medium/long term, we'll see what happens in the Autumn, I expect a test of a new all-time high around 5.000 I make purchases in parts based on given values, where the price is now, and I use a spot account and do not use leverage. I believe that this support is the optimal point for opening a mid-term or long-term long position, since we see a test of the trend line and 3.000 where there is strong support
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by Juliia
83
Tesla Fell More Than 12% After Earnings. Where Might It Go Next?CEO Elon Musk of Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA has said that if you believe in the future of his EV company’s FSD technology (short for “full self-driving”), then you should probably be invested in TSLA stock. If you don’t have faith in FSD, then perhaps you shouldn’t be. I don't know about that, but one thing that technical analysts can understand is the stock’s chart, seen here as of midday Wednesday (July 31): As the chart above shows, TSLA rallied heading into release of its earnings on July 23 after the bell, but has mostly pulled back since then -- including falling more than 12% on July 24. Could such action have been forecasted and acted upon? Let’s check it out. The first thing to note is the stock’s inverse head-and-shoulders pattern -- the set of three purple curved lines in the chart above. That pattern is historically bullish. Tesla’s breakout from the admittedly crooked neckline (the downwardly sloping purple line above) ran some 42% to the upside before the stock apexed at $271 intraday on July 11. However, July 11 is in the past. What about the future? As of midday Wednesday, Tesla was still about 15% below its $271 peak. Tesla’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) was also postured rather bearishly. The stock’s 12-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) -- denoted by the black line at bottom right in the chart above – was below Tesla’s 26-Day EMA (the orange line above). Add in the fact that the stock’s histogram of its 9-Day EMA (the blue bars at the chart’s bottom right) was below zero and that’s an historically bearish technical pattern. Meanwhile, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line with the purple background in the chart above) appears neutral, but is curling back in a bullish direction. But what if we erase our inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and make it part of a larger story? Check this out: Tesla’s RSI and MACD are both the same in this chart as they were in the first one, but this graph no longer shows an aged inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has already run its course. Instead, this chart shows an historically bullish cup-with-handle pattern, as denoted by the big purple arc above. In fact, the diagram above appears to show multiple technical positives for Tesla: • The cup-with-handle pattern has a $271 pivot point, marked with the small purple line at right. • Tesla is trading above both its 50-Day Simple Moving Average (the blue line) and its 200-Day SMA (the red line). • The 50-Day SMA has crossed above the 200-day one, forming a so-called “golden cross.” That’s historically a bullish sign. Things will likely look even better for Tesla if the stock can take back the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to get the swing traders in line. That would likely budge the 9-day EMA’s histogram (the blue bars at bottom right) into positive territory, which is typically bullish. It would also probably push the 12-Day EMA (the black line at bottom right) above the 26-Day EMA (the orange line at right). That’s an historically bullish sign as well. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeline for any particular purpose of the above content. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by moomoo
1
Asymmetric Risk Reward: The Secret to Success in Trading?Be as bold as you want yet protect your capital with the asymmetric risk reward strategy — an approach adopted by some of the greatest market wizards out there. In this Idea, we distill the concept of asymmetric bets and teach you how to risk little and earn big. Spoiler: legendary traders George Soros, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones love this trick. Every trade you open has only two possible outcomes: you either turn a profit or make a loss. Perhaps the greatest thing you can learn about these two outcomes is the balance between them. The fundamental difference between making money and losing money — the mighty risk-reward ratio . The risk-reward ratio is your trade’s upside relative to the downside you baked in (or realized). Let’s Break It Down 🤸‍♂️ Most traders believe that you have to take huge risks to be successful. But that’s not what the big guys in the industry do with the piles of cash they’ve got. Instead, they try to take the least amount of risk possible with the most upside. That’s what asymmetric risk-reward ratio means. Think of it this way: you invest $1 only if you believe you can ultimately make $5. Now your risk-reward ratio is set at 1:5, or a hit ratio of 20%. Safe to say that you’ll likely be wrong lots of times. But step by step, you can risk another dollar for that $5 reward and build up a good track record or more wins than losses. That way you can be wrong four times out of five and still make money. Let’s scale it up and pull these two further apart. Let’s say you want to chase a juicier profit with a small risk. You can pursue a risk-reward ratio of 1 to 15, meaning you risk $1 to make $15. The odds are very much in your favor — you can be wrong 14 times out of 15 and still break even. What Does This Look Like in Practice? 🧐 Suddenly, the EUR/USD is looking attractive and you’re convinced that it’s about to skyrocket after some big news shakes it up. You’re ready to ramp up your long position. Now comes decision time — what’s a safe level of risk relative to a handsome reward? You decide to use leverage of 1:100 and buy one lot (100,000 units) at the price of $1.10. That means your investment is worth €1,000 but in practice you are selling $100,000 (because of the leverage) to buy the equivalent in euro. In a trade of that size one pip, or the fourth figure after the decimal (0.0001), carries a value of €10 in either direction. If the exchange rate moves from $1.1000 to $1.1100, that’s 100 pips of profit worth a total of €1,000. But if the trade turns against you, you stand to lose the same amount per pip. Now, let’s go to the practical side of things. You choose to widen the gap between risk and reward and aim for profit that’s 15 times your potential loss. You set your stop loss at a level that, if taken out, won’t sink your account to the point of no return. Let’s say you run a €10,000 account and you’ve already jammed €1,000 into the trade. A safe place to set your stop loss would be a potential drawdown of 2%, or €200. In pip terms, that’s equal to 20 pips. To get to that 1:15 ratio, your desired profit level should be 300 pips, aiming for a reward of €3,000. If materialized, the €3,000 profit will bump your account by 30% (that’s your return on equity), while your return on investment will surge 200%. And if you take the loss, you’d lose 2% of your total balance. It’s How the Big Guys in the Industry Do It You’d be surprised to know that most of the Wall Street legends have made their fortunes riding asymmetric bets. Short-term currency speculator George Soros explains how he broke the Bank of England with a one-way bet that risked no more than 4% of his fund’s capital to make over $1 billion in profits. Ray Dalio talks about it when he says that one of the most important things in investing is to balance your aggressiveness and defensiveness. “In trading you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time. If you are not aggressive, you are not going to make money, and if you are not defensive, you are not going to keep money.” Paul Tudor Jones, another highly successful trader, spotlights the skewed risk-reward ratio as his path to big profits. “5:1 (risk /reward),” he says in an interview with motivational speaker Tony Robbins,” five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five. What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.” What’s Your Risk-Reward Ratio? 🤑 Are you using the risk-reward ratio to get the most out of your trades? Do you cut the losses and let your profits run by using stop losses and take profits? Share your experience below and let’s spin up a nice discussion!
Education
by TradingView
7
Trading Idea: Bearish Shark Setup on NZDUSDI wanted to share an interesting setup on NZDUSD that’s been forming for a while. Let’s dive into the details! Current Overview: Bearish Shark Setup: Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) : The setup has been hovering at the PRZ, which some traders might misinterpret as a violation. Key Insights: Having the Right Knowledge Matters : From my 19 years of trading and nearly 16 years of coaching, I’ve seen even experienced traders make mistakes in reading signals like this. It’s not uncommon for traders with 8 years of experience to misjudge such setups. Strategy: Second Chance Entry: Key Level : 0.5935 What to Do: If you missed the initial signal, wait for the market to retest 0.5935 for a second chance entry opportunity. Community Alert: This Trade Alert was triggered at 14:00(SGT) Final Thoughts: Patience and proper signal interpretation are crucial in trading. If you’re looking for a second chance, keep an eye on 0.5935. Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need more insights or if you missed this trade. What’s your take on this setup? Have you seen similar patterns before? Share your thoughts and strategies below! Happy trading, everyone!
Short
by RaynLim
8
MARUTI BULL FLAG BREAKOUT??🚀 MARUTI Breaks Out! 🏁📈 🚀 The bulls are back in the driver's seat! 🐂💥 MARUTI stock has just broken out of a classic bull flag pattern, signaling a potential surge ahead. This technical formation indicates a period of consolidation, followed by a strong continuation of the previous uptrend. 📊💹 For the savvy investors, this is a golden opportunity. The breakout confirms the bullish momentum and points to further gains on the horizon. 🌟📈 As the market buzzes with excitement, remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. The road ahead looks promising, but as always, tread with caution and keep your investment strategy in check. 🧐📚 Join the ride and let's watch MARUTI rev up the engines! 🏎️💨
NSE:MARUTILong
by TheSnop
9
Potential Big Move for Verasity (VRA)? History May Rhyme...Hello there, fellow traders! I’ve been taking a close look at Verasity (VRA) and wanted to share an interesting pattern I’ve noticed on the VRA/USDT chart from KUCOIN. This is my first time publishing an idea, so feel free to counter my idea as I am eager to improve. Before diving in, remember, this is not financial advice (NFA) – always do your own research and invest wisely! Historical Patterns: Looking at the daily chart, Verasity has shown some impressive movements in the past. Check out these key points: Previous Cycle (A to F): Starting Point (A): After a period of consolidation, VRA took off. Peak (F): The price surged by an incredible 36,859.39%! Current Analysis: Potential Bottom (D?): We seem to be at a similar point to previous lows, suggesting a potential new cycle could be beginning. Future Projection (F?): If history repeats, we could see a rise of around 21,059.58% from current levels. Why This Matters: Patterns like these can offer valuable insights, especially for those looking to time their investments. If VRA follows its historical trends, we might be in for a substantial upward movement. Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: Around the “A” and “D” points, where prices have historically bottomed out. Resistance Levels: The “B” and “F” points, marking significant peaks. Final Thoughts While these patterns are promising, remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This analysis is based on historical data and past performance does not guarantee future results. As always, this is not financial advice (NFA). Be sure to conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Happy trading and let’s see where VRA takes us next!
Long
by Popadolis
8
What Lot Size to Use in Forex for $10, $100, $1000 Account I will share with you a simple guide, that will help you to calculate a lot size for your forex trading account easily. In brief, let me explain to you why you should calculate a lot size for your trades. If you trade Forex with Fixed lot, you should be extremely careful. Too big lot size may lead too substantial losses or even blown trading account, while with a too small lot you may miss good profits. To calculate the best lot size, follow these 5 simple steps. 1. Make a list of all Forex pairs that you trade Let's say that you trade only major forex pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD 2. Back test every pair and identify at least 5 past trading setups on each pair Above, you can see 5 last trades on each 6 major forex pairs. 3. Measure stop losses of each trade 4. Find the trade with the biggest stop loss in pips In our example, the biggest stop loss in on GBPUSD pair. It is 34 pips. Remember this number and the name of a currency pair. Why we need to do that? Your lot size will primarily depend on your risk in pips. For example, scalpers may have 10/15 pips stop losses, while swing traders may have even 100 pips stop losses. 5. Open a Forex position size calculator You can use any free calculator that is available. They are all the same. 6. Input your account size, 2% as the risk ratio and a currency pair with the biggest stop loss (GBPUSD in our example) In "stop loss in pips" field, write down the pip value of your biggest stop loss - 34 pips in our example. For the account size of 1000$, the best lot size to use 0.05 standard lot. The idea is that your maximum loss should not exceed 2% of your account balance, while the average loss will be around 1%. Remember to carefully back test your strategy and now exactly your maximum risks in pips, to make proper calculations! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
10
Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward. Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits. The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline. “Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It” You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor. Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity. Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures. AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash." For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI. Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them. Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks. The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize? Let Us Know Your Thoughts! With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradingView
23
GOLD will rise by +300% in only 3 years! (Better than Bitcoin)I am pretty confident that GOLD will rise by +300% in price in only 3 years! Is gold a better investment than Bitcoin at this moment? Should you sell BTC and buy GOLD? Definitely yes, and I will tell you why! Gold was in a sideways consolidation period from 2011 to 2024. And this year, in March 2024, the price finally made a strong breakout bullish candle on the monthly chart that changed everything! The big players have a lot of liquidity and then cannot move large amounts of money from one asset class to another with a single order. Also, for them, it's not best to buy all assets at the same time. In 2024, we see that big players are hugely interested in gold again, so this should be your main focus. Why can Gold go 300% in 3 years and Bitcoin cannot? That would be around 210,000 USD per Bitcoin in 2027, and we know that this is impossible to happen as Bitcoin is statistically dropping every third year by 70% - 90%. Of course, big players are using this high volatility to buy cheap Bitcoin and to force retail investors to sell in a huge loss. They will do it again, as it's extremely profitable for them. Most likely, the price of Bitcoin in 2027 will be below 70k! From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart we can see that the price of GOLD is inside this ascending parallel channel (since the year 2000). The probability of touching the top of the ascending channel is very high at this moment. From the Elliott Wave perspective, gold is starting an impulse wave (3)! Usually, waves 3 are the strongest! Another indication that huge news is coming for GOLD.  Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xanrox
104
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 2Hello traders. In this article, we dive deeper into another detailed way of seeing Bitcoin's potential end-of-cycle pattern. This is the 2nd part to the previous post that discusses Bitcoin's cycle using the Elliott Wave Theory - a comprehensive and subjective theory. Here, we will be exploring an alternative scenario that builds on our previous concept of Bitcoin fractals since its inception in 2009. By addressing some of the subjectivity in the wave theory and leveraging market psychology and algorithmic fractals, this post is aimed to provide another organized and insightful look at the structure of Bitcoin's price movements.
If you are interested in seeing the first scenario, here is a link for your convenience: For this alternative scenario, as mentioned above, it addresses some of the subjectivity that arises from the Elliott Wave Theory, specifically the observation of multiple 1-2 scenarios presented in our previous idea. Although the idea was supported by evidence from market psychology and algorithmic fractals, the problem arises by having the possibility of infinite 1-2 nested structures that works upon extending each internal wave - which is a pretty rare observation in any markets; however, Bitcoin has been able to withstand year by year and work on a pretty timely schedule. Based on the expectations, we used that observation to create the scenario of nested 1-2's. Nevertheless, due to its possible subjective count, this idea focuses more on the structural integrity of the basic 5-wave pattern and being able to fit the whole price action from inception as a 5-wave pattern.
 Simply put, this thesis aims to create a more organized structure. As many are still eager to determine how far Bitcoin might correct after this bull run ends, I hope this idea can also give you confidence to help build your own thesis.
 There is one thing that is for sure, however: the evidence portrayed from both of these scenarios strongly suggests that we will see higher levels before lower levels, though no theory can be 100% accurate, we could technically see a reversal even now. But my duty is to make sure to narrow down the scenarios as best as I can.
 For this specific idea, we have structured this whole move up as 5 waves since inception, sticking as closely as possible to the basic Elliott Wave model of the 5-wave impulse. To achieve this, we made some simple adjustments from the first thesis in the previous post.

The challenge for many arises when trying to fit a wave 3 that must be the longest or second longest wave compared to waves 1 and 5. In this chart, since primary wave 1 in yellow is the longest, wave 5 must be technically shorter than wave 3, which is a strict rule and must be obeyed.
 To accomplish this, we can use the 2017-2020 price action as a range initself for wave 4. Previously, we considered the pandemic crash as a technical bottom. If we use that as a sideways range, the only viable sideways patterns are triangles and flats (as we have exhausted the zigzag family correction patterns for wave 4 already). For more details on these patterns, please refer to the previous guide on triangle and flat patterns in my Elliott Wave Theory guide on my main page. By using the 2017-2020 range as a triangle, our subwave E has resulted in an extremely short subwave, known as a failure or truncation. After breaking out of the triangle, the next step is to figure out on how to form wave 5, which is the final part of the 5-wave motive impulse.
 Currently, the only way we can see wave 5 concluding is through a possible diagonal given the current data. Why? We would typically expect a basic 5-wave move for wave 5, but since wave 5 has to be short and wave 1 was extended, we do not expect the last primary wave 5 in yellow to be extended. Thus, the only remaining option is a possible diagonal pattern to complete wave 5, since we have also assumed it will be short due to wave 1 already being the longest wave and wave 3 being the 2nd longest wave.

This Ending Diagonal, which consists of 5 waves (unlike a Leading Diagonal, which appears in waves 1 or A), they are only observed in wave 5s or wave Cs.
 To construct our Ending Diagonal, the five subwaves must be zigzags (simple ABCs) or complex zigzags (WXYs). We are currently observing a mix of these, which is normal in diagonals: 
 * Subwave (1): ABC. Observed as a long wave A and short wave C. This can be debated, but longer wave As compared to wave Cs are not uncommon. * Subwave (2): WXY. A WXYXZ could fit as well like we observed in our previous post, but that deviates significantly from the traditional structure. A WXY is the next best alternative, and even that can be subjective as we typically observe simple ZigZags (ABCs) within diagonals. * Subwave (3): Currently being created. With the available data, it could be an ABC, though it may become more complex going forward. * Subwave (4) / (5) : To be determined. Must belong to the zigzag family.

 As we are still working on subwave (3) within the ending diagonal, the interest level for a pullback remains the same as in our previous idea, THAT IS THE KEY. This significant pullback could validate this idea, so we will monitor it up to that point.
 This larger picture presents a wide range between subwaves 4 and 5, similar to waves 1 and 2.
 Once subwaves 4 and 5 are created, it will technically terminate the larger degree wave 5 of the entire 5-wave impulse cycle. After termination, a significant downside correction is possible, potentially reaching levels as low as $3,000. Alternatively, we also have a completely different count where this cycle wave 1-2 may be already in play, and it can be achieved by using a larger flat idea that may also help with separation and further deepend subjectivity. Here is that approach: In conclusion, while the evidence strongly suggests that Bitcoin will reach higher levels before any significant correction, it is crucial to remain adaptable as market conditions evolve. The analysis presented here offers merely a potential roadmap. No theory can predict market movements with absolute certainty. By staying informed and considering multiple scenarios, investors can better navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market. I invite EVERYONE to share your thoughts and engage with this post in the comments below.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
109
Why Interest Rates Matter for Forex TradersWhy Interest Rates Matter for Forex Traders Delve into the intricate world of forex, where interest rates stand as towering beacons guiding currency movements and trader strategies. From the fundamentals of central bank operations to the subtle nuances of the carry trade, uncover how they shape the global financial tapestry, dictating economic outcomes and trader fortunes. Understanding Interest Rates An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money or the return earned from lending, expressed as a percentage. Two primary types dominate the discourse: Central Bank Interest Rates Set by monetary authorities like the Federal Reserve, these rates often serve as the benchmark for short-term lending between banks. For instance, the federal funds rate in the US dictates interbank loans overnight, influencing liquidity and, by extension, currency value. Market Interest Rates Think LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) – the rate at which banks lend to each other in the international interbank market. It, influenced by supply and demand dynamics, often fluctuates daily, making it a vital metric for traders who delve into currency swaps or forward rate agreements. In trading currency pairs, interest rates aren't mere numbers – they're indicators dictating strength, investment flows, and overall economic health. Interest Rates as Market Drivers In forex, interest rates emerge as crucial influencers. Acting as catalysts, they shape currency values, guide investment flows, and mould strategies traders employ. For those looking to take advantage of these forces, using a platform like FXOpen's TickTrader offers a competitive edge, ensuring traders have access to real-time data and advanced trading tools. Decoding Interest Rates in Forex Market Trends Interest rates wield enormous power in the global financial theatre, particularly in the dynamics of forex trading. One of the clearest relationships observed is between high interest rates and currencies. Elevated rates act as a magnet for foreign capital since investors constantly scout for better returns. This inflow requires the purchase of the country's currency, leading to its appreciation. Carry Trade and Interest Dynamics One such tactic to capitalise on rate disparities is the carry trade. Traders borrow funds in a currency with low rates and invest it in a currency yielding higher returns. The difference or the "carry" becomes their profit. The symbiotic relationship between interest rates and forex is deeply evident here. A sound grasp of the nuances of this strategy can lead to lucrative opportunities for seasoned traders. Interest Differentials: The Subtle Nuances Even minor variations in rates across nations can offer significant opportunities. These differentials between currency pairs influence their relative strengths. For instance, if Country A starts offering higher interest rates than Country B, it could lead to an appreciation of Country A's currency, interest rates playing the central role. Savvy traders continually analyse these differentials, strategising their trades to capitalise on the anticipated market movements. Central Banks and Monetary Policy Central banks hold a significant position in steering a nation's economic direction. One of their critical levers is the setting of interest rates. They directly impact the money supply and, subsequently, inflation levels. When inflation surges beyond targeted levels, central banks may raise rates to rein it in, as this will typically reduce consumer borrowing and spending. Conversely, when economies face downturns, they might reduce them, promoting borrowing and investment and aiming to boost economic activity. Thus, the delicate balance between inflation rates and interest rates is a testament to the central authorities’ pivotal role in economic stability. Monetary Policy Tools: Shaping the Financial Landscape Central banks use a variety of tools to implement their monetary policies: Open Market Operations By buying or selling government securities, these banks control the money circulating in the economy. Selling securities pulls money out of the market, leading to higher interest rates. Conversely, purchasing them injects money, pushing rates down. Reserve Requirements By altering the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve, central banks can influence the amount available for loans. A higher reserve means fewer loans, resulting in higher rates and vice versa. Forward Guidance and Quantitative Easing These are more nuanced tools. Forward guidance involves bank governors communicating their future plans, providing the market with a sense of direction. Quantitative easing, on the other hand, involves large-scale asset purchases to increase money supply and lower interest rates. Economic Indicators and Their Correlation with Interest Rates Economic indicators provide valuable insights into a country's financial health, and their fluctuations often influence monetary policy decisions. For instance, when inflation surpasses target levels, central banks might consider hiking them to temper the rising prices, leading to an interplay between foreign exchange and interest rates. A strong GDP growth signals a thriving economy, which might attract foreign investments. These inflows usually put upward pressure on the domestic currency. However, if the bank responds by raising rates, this may further amplify its strength. Thus, the effect of increasing interest rates on currency is often profound, making it a focal point for forex traders. Similarly, employment metrics, consumer sentiment, and manufacturing output are all vital indicators that economists monitor. Changes in these metrics might hint at upcoming monetary policy adjustments. Lastly, there are foreign currency loans and interest rates. When global rates are low, corporations might engage in foreign currency loans, seeking cheaper financing options. However, shifts in these rates can impact the cost of servicing these loans, leading to potential forex market volatility. The Bottom Line The dance between forex and interest rates is both complex and fascinating. As we've seen, interest rate trading offers profound insights and opportunities for those in the foreign exchange arena. For those eager to navigate these waters and capitalise on the intricate interplay of rates and currencies, opening an FXOpen account can be the gateway to informed, strategic trading in this dynamic market. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
6
Bitcoin vs Gold Cup & HandleBitcoin weekly chart vs gold monthly chart, cup and handle edition. Gold broke out of it's handle this year, waiting to see if Bitcoin does the same as the fundamentals continue to strengthen. As of the Bitcoin Conference this past week we now have legislation announced that would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve here in the US, and Trump and Kennedy vowing to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset if elected and end the current government policy of selling seized Bitcoin. Harris is also switching to pro-crypto after the Biden administration has been actively anti-crypto during this term. Keep buying Bitcoin.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by PrepForProfit
27
Lululemon's Drop Has Me Completely SurprisedI’m still in awe at the drop happening across fashion stocks like NASDAQ:LULU , NYSE:NKE , and even Under Armour. The other week, I wrote about Nike and now I realize I must comment on the drop of Lululemon, which is down 50% this year and now has its lowest PE ratio in over decade all while doing about $1 billion in Free Cash Flow last holiday season. So what’s going on? First, let’s look at their declines since the start of the year: Nike is down 33% year-to-date, Lululemon has plunged 51%, and Under Armour has dropped 21%. I did some research into why this might be happening, as earnings and margins are being challenged, and found the following three reasons: 1. The athletic fashion market has become fiercely competitive, maybe more than ever, with new brands entering the fray and established brands expanding their offerings. Companies like Athleta, Fabletics, and various direct-to-consumer startups are aggressively targeting the same market segments that giants like Nike and Lululemon dominate. 2. New shopping mechanics on Instagram and Amazon has dramatically altered the retail landscape. Instagram's shopping features and Amazon's expansive marketplace have changed how consumers discover and purchase athletic apparel. Brands now need to invest heavily in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to stay relevant. This shift has favored agile, digitally native brands that can quickly adapt to new trends and customer behaviors. This is a big deal. 3. Wall Street's relentless focus on short-term performance has placed additional strain on these companies. Investors demand constant growth, often pushing companies to prioritize immediate gains over long-term stability. This pressure can lead to cost-cutting measures that impact product quality and innovation. For instance, there are concerns that Nike may have compromised on quality control to meet earnings expectations, resulting in dissatisfied customers and negative reviews. While I don’t have a position on in any of these stocks, I am absolutely watching Nike and Lululemon. At these levels, and if they continue to drop, I believe a trade will open up. I’ll share more details soon about this! Lululemon is on my watchlist!
NASDAQ:LULU
by scheplick
24