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How Do Traders Identify Overbought and Oversold Stocks?How Do Traders Identify Overbought and Oversold Stocks? Identifying overbought and oversold stocks is a key part of technical analysis for traders. These conditions occur when a market’s price moves to extremes—either too high or too low—compared to its recent performance. By recognising these signals, traders can spot potential turning points in the market. This article explores what overbought and oversold stocks are, how to find them using technical indicators, and the risks involved in trading them. What Is an Oversold Stock? Oversold stocks are those that have experienced a significant price decline, often beyond what might seem reasonable based on their underlying value. This often happens when market sentiment is overly negative, even if the company’s fundamentals remain solid. Several factors can lead to a stock becoming oversold. For instance, bad news about a company, such as a missed earnings report or legal troubles, can cause investors to sell off shares quickly. Broader market events, like economic downturns or changes in industry regulations, can also drive prices down across the board. Sometimes, even strong stocks get caught up in these waves of negativity. The concept of overselling isn’t just about price falling, though—it’s about the potential for a reversal. When stocks fall too fast, too far compared to their actual financial performance or growth potential, this is where traders look for opportunities, analysing whether the market is poised for a potential recovery. What Is an Overbought Stock? Overbought stocks are those that have risen sharply in price, often to a point where they may no longer reflect the stock’s true value. When a stock is considered overbought, it means there’s been a lot of buying activity, pushing the price higher than what its fundamentals might justify. This often happens when market sentiment is extremely positive, driving demand even when shares may already be trading at high levels. Several factors can lead to an overbought market. Sometimes, positive news about a company—such as strong earnings, new product launches, or positive analyst reports—can spark a wave of buying. Market-wide optimism, particularly during bullish phases, can also lead to an overbought stock market. Speculative buying, where traders hope to capitalise on short-term price movements, can further inflate the price. Being overbought doesn’t necessarily mean the stock is due for an immediate correction, but it does suggest that the price may have gone too high, too quickly. The most overbought stocks are often viewed as being in a vulnerable position for a potential pullback, especially if there isn’t enough underlying support from the company’s financial health or growth prospects. Traders consider this an opportunity to sell stocks at potentially good prices. How Traders Find Oversold and Overbought Stocks with Indicators Traders use technical indicators to determine whether a stock might be undervalued (oversold) or overvalued (overbought) based on its price action. These indicators allow traders to assess whether a price movement has gone too far in one direction. Technical indicators are tools that use historical price and volume data to measure things like price momentum and trend strength. When it comes to finding overbought or oversold stocks, momentum oscillators play a key role. These oscillators measure the speed and magnitude at which an asset’s price is changing. If a market has been rising or falling too quickly, it could be a sign that it’s either overbought or oversold. Also, if a stock has moved too far away from its typical price range, it signals a possible reversal. Traders rely on indicators to determine when the price may be at an extreme, helping them find entry or exit points based on market conditions. Now, let’s break down some of the most popular indicators used for this purpose. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used overbought and oversold indicators. The RSI is a momentum indicator that gauges how fast and how much a stock's price is moving. It gives traders a visual signal of when a stock may have been pushed too far in either direction. RSI compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses to assess whether a stock is overbought or oversold. The indicator ranges from 0 to 100 and is typically used to evaluate whether a stock is moving too fast in either direction. If the RSI falls below 30, the stock is considered oversold, suggesting it could be undervalued and due for a bounce. If the RSI rises above 70, the stock is seen as in an overbought zone, potentially signalling a price correction on the horizon. While RSI can be helpful, it’s essential to look at it in the context of the broader market. For example, in a strong bull market, a stock might remain overbought for an extended period. Similarly, during a downturn, stocks can stay oversold longer than expected. Stochastic Oscillator The Stochastic Oscillator is another momentum indicator. It compares a stock's closing price to its price range over a certain period. The idea behind this indicator is that in an uptrend, prices will close near their highs, and in a downtrend, prices will close near their lows. The Stochastic Oscillator helps traders identify when a stock’s price has potentially moved too far in either direction relative to its recent range. It’s similar in principle to the RSI, except the Stochastic is considered more useful for detecting shorter-term reversals. It’s especially useful for identifying overbought and oversold conditions because it moves within a range — between 0 and 100 — similar to the RSI. The Stochastic Oscillator is made up of two lines: %K, which is the primary line, and %D, a moving average of %K. When these lines are above 80, the stock is considered overbought. When they are below 20, it’s considered oversold. Given its sensitivity, it’s common to see the Stochastic signals a market is overextended for a longer period when there’s a strong trend. This makes it more prone to false signals than the RSI or MACD indicator and typically more useful for trading pullbacks in a broader trend. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is another popular overbought and oversold indicator. Unlike the RSI, which focuses primarily on oversold vs overbought levels, MACD is more about trend strength and its direction. It shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price and can help identify potential shifts in momentum. The MACD consists of two lines: the MACD line (which is the difference between the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages) and the signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it indicates a potential bullish reversal. When it crosses below, it signals a bearish reversal. Since the lines are based on the difference between two EMAs, it’s also possible to gauge an overbought/oversold stock by examining the distance of the lines between their current values and the 0 midpoint. If the lines are far away from 0 and their historical averages, it could indicate a stock is overbought or oversold. However, generally speaking, MACD is less about pinpointing specific overbought/oversold levels and more about identifying when momentum is shifting. A rapid crossover of the lines, especially after a strong move, can signal that a reversal might be near. Considerations When Using Momentum Indicators While momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD can be useful for spotting overextended stocks, there are a couple of key points to keep in mind when using these oversold and overbought indicators: Divergences A divergence occurs when the price moves in the opposite direction to the indicator. For example, if a stock is making higher highs but the indicator is making lower highs, this can signal weakening momentum and a possible reversal. Divergences offer another layer of insight, so it's worth paying attention to them alongside other factors. Timeframes Different timeframes can produce different results. An indicator that shows a stock is oversold on a daily chart might not show the same on a weekly chart. It's important to choose the right timeframe for your trading strategy, whether short-term or long-term. Generally, many traders take a top-down approach, allowing higher timeframe signals to better inform your analysis on lower timeframes. Risks of Trading Oversold and Overbought Stocks Trading oversold and overbought stocks can be appealing, as these conditions often suggest a potential reversal in price. However, there are some risks to consider when relying on these signals. A few important points to bear in mind include: - False Signals: Just because a market is oversold or overbought doesn’t guarantee a reversal. Prices can continue to decline or rise despite what momentum indicators suggest. Traders need to be cautious about assuming that every extreme condition will result in a price correction. - Extended Trends: In strong bullish or bearish trends, a stock can remain in overbought or oversold territory for longer than expected. This can lead to premature trades, where investors get in too early or expect a reversal that doesn’t come for a while. - Market Sentiment: Sometimes, external factors like news events or broader economic conditions can overpower technical indicators. If there’s overwhelming optimism or pessimism in the market, a stock may continue in its overbought or oversold condition for longer than anticipated. - Lack of Confirmation: Relying on a single indicator can be risky. It’s common to use multiple indicators or combine technical and fundamental analysis for a more balanced view. There may be no other supporting signals when a stock is oversold, meaning the trade carries higher risk. The Bottom Line Understanding overbought and oversold stocks, along with the indicators used to identify them, can help traders spot potential market opportunities. While these conditions may signal a reversal, it’s important to recognise there is no one best overbought and oversold indicator and use multiple tools for confirmation. Ready to apply these insights? Open an FXOpen account today to access more than 700 markets, including a huge range of stock CFDs, and four advanced trading platforms. FAQ What Is Overbought and Oversold? Overbought and oversold are terms used to describe extreme price movements in markets. A stock is considered overbought when its price has risen rapidly and above its underlying value, which potentially makes it overvalued. It’s oversold when the price has fallen sharply and below its underlying value, which makes it undervalued. These conditions can signal that a price reversal may be coming, though they don’t guarantee it. What Does It Mean for a Stock to Be Overbought? The overbought stock meaning refers to a stock that has increased quickly and is potentially trading higher than its actual value. This often occurs due to strong demand or market optimism. Overbought conditions might signal that the price is at risk of a pullback. What Does It Mean When a Stock Is Oversold? The oversold stock meaning refers to a stock that has dropped significantly and may be below its true value. This often happens when there’s been excessive selling, and it could suggest that its price is due for a rebound. How Can You Find Oversold Stocks? Traders often use technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to find the most oversold stocks. An RSI reading below 30 typically suggests that a stock is oversold and may present a buying opportunity. Other indicators, like the Stochastic Oscillator, are also commonly used to identify oversold conditions. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by FXOpen
4
Price Action Trading: Key ConceptsPrice Action Trading: Key Concepts Price action is a popular trading method where traders analyse raw price movements on a chart, without relying on technical indicators. Traders identify patterns, trends, and key levels that help them understand market behaviour. This article explores what price action is, the key concepts, and how to get started with a price action strategy. What Is Price Action Trading? Price action is the movement of an asset’s price over time, and it’s one of the purest forms of market analysis. When using price action, indicators like moving averages or oscillators take a back seat, with traders focusing solely on the movement of the market itself. In studying how prices behave in real-time or historically, traders can spot trends, patterns, and potential turning points in the market. At its core, price action is about reading the market’s “story” through its movements. Traders look at how an asset has moved in the past—whether it’s rising, falling, or ranging—to understand what it might do next. This analysis often revolves around key levels, such as support (where prices tend to stop falling) and resistance (where they tend to stop rising). Because price action relies purely on market data, it offers a clear view of sentiment without the “noise” of external indicators. This makes it a go-to method for traders who prefer a straightforward approach. Price action also can be used in any market—whether it’s forex, stocks, or commodities—and across various timeframes too, from short-term day trading to long-term investing. Understanding this style isn’t automatic—it requires practice, observation, and an eye for patterns. However, once traders get the hang of it, price action can provide valuable insight into the market’s behaviour and help them analyse future trends. Key Price Action Concepts Now, let’s take a look at some core price action concepts. Support and Resistance Support and resistance levels are foundational in price action analysis. These are key levels that the market has historically struggled to move past. Support represents a level where the market tends to stop falling, acting like a “floor,” as buying pressure increases. Resistance is the opposite, serving as a “ceiling” where upward movements tend to halt, as selling pressure grows. Traders use support and resistance to identify potential levels where the market might reverse or pause. If a price breaks through one of these levels, it can signal a continuation of the trend, while a bounce off the level might indicate a reversal. Trends At its simplest, a trend shows the direction in which a given market is headed. In an uptrend, prices are making higher highs and higher lows, showing consistent bullish momentum. In a downtrend, the opposite is true: prices make lower lows and lower highs, indicating bearish sentiment. Swing highs and lows are critical when spotting trends. A swing high is a peak formed when the market moves up and then reverses down. A swing low is the opposite. Tracking these highs and lows allows traders to identify the current trend. Trendlines and Price Channels A trendline is a straight line that connects multiple swing highs or swing lows in a trending market. It visually represents the direction of the trend and helps traders spot potential areas where the market may find support or resistance. When two parallel trendlines are drawn—one connecting swing highs and the other swing lows—it forms a price channel. Channels help traders see the range in which the price is moving, and it’s common for prices to bounce between the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. Breakouts from them can signal a shift in trend direction. Candlestick Patterns Candlestick patterns are formed by the movement of price over a specific period and are widely used in price action trading. Some common candlestick price action trading patterns include: - Pin Bar/Hammer/Shooting Star: A candle with a long wick and small body, indicating a rejection of higher or lower prices. It can suggest a potential trend reversal. - Engulfing Pattern: A two-candle pattern where the second candle fully engulfs the previous one, signalling a shift in momentum. A bullish engulfing pattern suggests buyers are taking control, while a bearish engulfing pattern shows sellers are gaining strength. - Doji: A candle with little to no body, where the open and close prices are nearly identical. It suggests indecision in the market and can signal a potential reversal, depending on where it appears in a trend. Chart Patterns Price action chart patterns are shapes that form on a chart, which traders use to determine future price movements. They can indicate the continuation or reversal of a trend. Some common chart patterns include: - Head and Shoulders: A reversal pattern that signals a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend (or vice versa). It consists of three peaks, with the middle one being the highest (the "head") and the outer two being lower (the "shoulders"). - Double Top/Double Bottom: These reversal patterns form when the price tests a level twice and fails to break through, indicating a potential reversal. - Triangles: Symmetrical, ascending, or descending triangles indicate consolidation periods before a breakout. Breakouts A breakout occurs when an asset moves outside a defined support, resistance, or trendline level. Breakouts can signal that the market is gaining momentum in a particular direction. When prices break beyond a support or resistance level, it can suggest that traders are pushing prices in a given direction and that momentum is likely to continue. Traders often watch for breakouts from chart patterns like triangles or channels. Reversals A reversal happens when a market trend changes direction. In an uptrend, a reversal would occur when prices stop making higher highs and higher lows and start forming lower lows instead. Reversals are often marked by candlestick patterns or chart patterns like head and shoulders or double top/bottom. Retracements A retracement is a temporary reversal in the direction of a trend, where the asset moves against the prevailing trend but eventually continues in the same direction. Traders often use tools like Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential areas where the market might retrace before resuming its original trend. Volume Volume measures how much of an asset is being traded over a certain period. In price action trading, volume is used to confirm the strength of market movements. For example, if the price breaks through a significant resistance level with high volume, it can indicate that the breakout is more likely to be sustained. On the other hand, breakouts on low volume might suggest the move lacks conviction and could reverse. Volatility Volatility refers to the degree of price movement in the market over time. Price action traders pay attention to volatility because it can influence how they interpret patterns and levels. In periods of high volatility, an asset may break through key levels quickly, while in low volatility periods, it might stay within a narrow range. How Traders Read Price Action Let’s now look at an overview of how the process typically unfolds: 1. Beginning with a Clean Chart Price action trading doesn’t rely on indicators, so the first step is to clear the chart of anything unnecessary. Traders focus on raw market data, meaning you’ll only initially need candlesticks or bars in a price action chart. 2. Identifying Market Structure Once the chart is clean, traders assess the market structure. This means figuring out whether the market is trending or ranging. In a trend, prices make consistent highs and lows, moving upwards or downwards. If the market is ranging, the price moves horizontally within a set range between support and resistance levels. 3. Looking for Patterns and Key Levels Next, traders focus on spotting recurring patterns and identifying key levels where the price has previously reacted. Patterns such as candlestick formations and chart setups (e.g., triangles or head and shoulders) give insight into what the market might do next. These patterns help traders anticipate reversals or breakouts based on past behaviour. Key levels like support and resistance guide where the price might stall or reverse. 4. Analysing Price Movements in Real-Time As the price moves, traders observe how it reacts to these key levels or patterns. Does it slow down near resistance, or does it break through with momentum? Does it pull back to support before continuing upward? These real-time reactions tell traders whether the market is maintaining its trend or if a reversal could be on the horizon. 5. Confirming with Volume and Volatility Traders often look at volume and volatility to further validate what’s happening on the chart. Higher volume can suggest stronger market moves, while volatility reveals how quickly the market is shifting. These extra layers of analysis provide confirmation of whether a breakout or reversal is likely to hold. Building a Price Action Trading Strategy Creating a price action trading strategy is about developing a personalised approach based on key patterns and setups that resonate with you. The steps mentioned above form the foundation of price action trading. However, traders usually build their own strategy over time, focusing on a handful of setups they find effective. Initially, traders choose a few concepts to work with and avoid getting overwhelmed by too much information. For example, you could look for pin bars that appear during retracements at support or resistance in line with a trend. Another approach might be identifying a breakout after a double top or bottom, especially if it’s backed by high volume. Alternatively, traders often use candlestick patterns to trade the upper and lower boundaries of a price channel. Setups like these can be backtested in trading platforms with FXOpen, using historical data to understand why and where certain setups work. It does take time to develop an eye for price action patterns, but it’s worth the effort to be able to identify opportunities well before lagging technical indicators do. Lastly, risk management is crucial when trading price action. Before you try out any setup, try to understand the best risk management practices for that pattern. For instance, traders might place a stop-loss just beyond a pin bar’s wick or slightly below the lows in a double bottom to limit potential losses if the market moves unexpectedly. The Bottom Line Price action offers traders a straightforward way to analyse market movements and make decisions based on real-time data, prioritising repeating patterns rather than indicators. To put price action trading into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account to access more than 700 live markets and our advanced low-cost, high-speed trading environment. FAQ What Is Price Action? The price action meaning refers to the movement of an asset's price over time. Traders analyse these movements, without relying on indicators, to identify trends, patterns, and potential turning points in the market. How to Read Price Action? Reading price action involves analysing market movements on a clean chart. Traders identify trends, key levels of support and resistance, and chart and candlestick patterns. What Is Price Action Trading? Price action trading is a strategy where traders make decisions based on the raw movements of an asset. Instead of using technical indicators, they focus on chart patterns, trends, and levels of support or resistance to analyse the market. What Is the M Pattern in Price Action? The M pattern, or double top, is a bearish reversal pattern that looks like the letter "M." It forms when the price tests a resistance level twice but fails to break through, signalling a potential move downwards. Do Price Patterns Work? Price patterns can work, but they are not foolproof. They are often used to identify potential market movements, but outcomes may vary depending on market conditions and other factors. Do Professional Traders Use Price Action? Yes, many professional traders use price action as a core part of their trading strategies. It provides a direct way to analyse market behaviour without relying on external indicators. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
3
Analyzing Coffee Futures: Key Insights for Traders and InvestorsICEUS:KC1! The coffee futures market has recently attracted attention from traders and investors due to significant price movements. On December 10th, the commodity reached new historical highs, surpassing a record set in 1977. This post will analyze the current trends in coffee futures, key technical patterns, and provide insights into what may happen next for this important commodity. Coffee Futures at a Glance 📈 New Historical Highs: On December 10th, coffee futures hit $348, breaking the previous record of $339 set in 1977. Key Technical Patterns: A bearish crab pattern has formed at the $333 level, suggesting potential downside risks. The Case for a Pullback or Consolidation 🔄 After reaching new highs, the coffee market could face a period of consolidation or a potential pullback. It’s not unusual for commodities to experience a cooling-off phase after such a strong rally. In this case, the price of coffee could correct lower, especially after a sharp upward movement. Bearish Crab Pattern at $333 The formation of a bearish crab pattern at $333 suggests a possible downward movement. A deeper pullback could take the price as low as $269, representing a 16% drop from current levels. This potential correction is supported by technical analysis, including Fibonacci retracement levels. Divergence Signals Indicating Weakness ⚠️ Another key factor to consider is the divergence in market indicators. Since the highs of April last year, there have been consistent signs of divergence, particularly with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The latest price peaks have failed to match new RSI highs, signaling weakening momentum. Factors Driving Potential Downside Pressure ⬇️ New Historical Highs: While reaching a new high is exciting, it often leads to a correction or profit-taking, especially after a strong rally. Bearish Divergence: The failure of the RSI to match price highs is a classic signal of weakening buying pressure. Bearish Crab Pattern: This technical pattern, formed at the 1618% Fibonacci extension, further supports the case for a potential downturn. What’s Next for Coffee Futures? 🔮 The outlook suggests caution in the short term. The combination of new historical highs, bearish divergence signals, and the formation of a bearish crab pattern presents a strong case for a pullback or period of consolidation. The potential target for this correction could be as low as $269, a significant drop from current levels. However, as always, it’s important to stay alert and monitor the market closely for any changes in momentum. Technical indicators and patterns like the ones discussed here can provide valuable insights, but the market can be unpredictable. Traders should consider these insights while managing risk and staying prepared for potential shifts in the market. For further updates and insights on the latest movements in coffee futures, stay tuned for future posts and analysis. Happy Trading, André Cardoso
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Andre_Cardoso
2
Earnings Season Cranks Up for Gainless S&P 500. What to Expect?The S&P 500 SPX is now showing nearly zero growth since Election Day, November 5. Markets were euphoric to see Donald Trump win the White House for another four years and pushed the S&P 500 to the rarefied air of 6,000 points and above. But that’s not the case anymore. A flurry of data has poured cold water on that breakneck rally, including the latest nonfarm payrolls, which showed employers tapped a whopping 256,000 workers in December, far outpacing expectations of 156,000. The news fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take its time in cutting interest rates — every investor’s biggest concern right now. It’s up to the earnings season to rejuvenate a falling stock market. To many, the fourth-quarter earnings updates will be the most consequential event as it will also mark President Joe Biden’s departure and the arrival of the main character, Donald Trump. First through the door, as is tradition, are the heavyweight players on Wall Street. This week traders will get to see the earnings results from big banks including JPMorgan JPM , Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS . In addition, the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock BLK will also post its performance. The banks’ updates will provide a glimpse into investor appetite for big-shot dealmaking, business sentiment and also how daring and bold consumers were in their spending activity. Things like net interest income — how much the bank earned on interest after paying out deposits — will be a key gauge for the banking system’s health. Here’s what’s coming from Wall Street’s household names (and some extra). ➡️ Wednesday, January 15, before the bell: Citi C Goldman Sachs GS JPMorgan JPM Wells Fargo WFC BlackRock BLK Bank of New York Mellon BK ➡️ Thursday, January 16, before the open: Bank of America BAC Morgan Stanley MS U.S. Bancorp USB Other earnings include UnitedHealth UNH . Once markets digest the updates from the lending giants, the focus will shift to the next big thing — the Magnificent Seven . It’s a high bar once again for America’s most powerful corporate juggernauts. Investors expect Mag 7 earnings to be up 22% from the same period last year while revenue is eyeballed to have grown 12.3%. The consensus views follow the elite club’s 32.9% earnings jump in the third quarter on revenue increase of 15.4%. Fun fact: the Mag 7 members accounted for 23.1% of all profits in the S&P 500 for the quarter ending September. For the three months to December, they are expected to consume about a quarter of the earnings pie. And for 2025, their market cap is projected to devour more than one-third of the S&P 500’s value, which is around $50 trillion. For the tech geeks, here’s the Mag 7 earnings slate: ➡️ Wednesday, January 29, after the closing bell: Microsoft MSFT Facebook parent Meta META Tesla TSLA ➡️ Thursday, January 30, after the closing bell: Apple AAPL Amazon AMZN ➡️ Tuesday, February 4, after the closing bell: Google parent Alphabet GOOGL ➡️ Wednesday, February 19 (tentative), after the closing bell: Nvidia NVDA Overall, the foresighted market gurus (i.e. the analysts) expect all companies in the S&P 500 to report a roughly 12% advance in quarterly profits compared to the year-ago quarter. For 2025, the consensus call is a 15% increase in corporate profits from last year. There are, of course, the permabears among us who spell doom and gloom. They say that Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could hinder corporate growth by raising prices for US companies that rely on overseas products. And if those companies decide to pass these costs to customers, then inflation might rear back up, throwing the markets into another painful cycle of higher interest rates. What’s your take? Are you optimistic about the corporate earnings season? And are you excited to see more growth in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s spin up the discussion.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
5
Are CL Futures starting a new bull trend in 2025?Crude Oil WTI Nymex Futures NYMEX:CL1! Big Picture: Crude Oil WTI NYMEX Futures Update – January 2025 Crude Oil WTI NYMEX futures are trading higher, with bullish price action evident at the start of 2025. Price has broken above the 2024 Composite Value Area High (CVAH) and is now approaching the Composite Value Area High from the 2022 high, as shown in the chart above. Macroeconomic Outlook From a global perspective, persistent inflation may be supported by elevated commodity prices. Higher crude oil prices, coupled with potential trade wars and tariffs, could drive up costs in major sectors, such as rare earth minerals. In this scenario, we anticipate central banks, including the Federal Reserve, maintaining higher interest rates. We believe the previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for this year may be reduced to zero. However, this creates a challenging environment for central banks. A combination of sticky inflation, resilient job markets, and low unemployment could lead to a "goldilocks" scenario. Recessionary risks will be increased unless some means of fiscal policy measures provide further support to the US economy. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. CVAH: 79.50 Resistance R1: 79.50 – 79.85 Resistance R2: 81.30 – 81.60 Neutral Level: 78.77 CVAH 2024 / Support: 75.00 Support (Yearly Open): 71.85 Scenario 1: Exhausted Buyers, Mean Reversion In this scenario, we anticipate range-bound price action, offering a potential short opportunity if buyers appear exhausted. Price action and volume analysis would need to confirm this. Look for absorption around the neutral zone or below R1/CVAH, with prices failing to push higher. A lower high and seller dominance would confirm a mean reversion short setup. Scenario 2: Breakout Above CVAH A confirmed breakout above CVAH could indicate further bullish price discovery and the potential for a new uptrend. Consolidation above CVAH followed by strong price action would provide a trigger for long positions. However, significant resistance at this level necessitates confirmation via price action and volume analysis before taking action. Scenario 3: Swing Failure at CVAH In this scenario, prices rise above the neutral zone and R1/CVAH, but sellers regain control, pushing prices lower. A swing failure candle with a long wick near the resistance zone would indicate the failure. A subsequent higher low could present a short opportunity for a mean reversion trade. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
8
Understanding Risk Asymmetry in a Table▮ Introduction With TradingView's new table creation feature , you can easily create and customize tables to enhance your trading analysis and presentations. In this article I'll use it to explain Risk Asymmetry . Trading involves a constant evaluation of risk and reward . One of the critical concepts that traders need to understand is risk asymmetry . This concept highlights how losses and gains are not symmetrical. In other words, the percentage gain required to recover from a loss is greater than the percentage loss itself. This article explores risk asymmetry and illustrates it with a practical example. ▮ What is Risk Asymmetry? Risk asymmetry refers to the disproportionate relationship between losses and the gains required to recover from those losses. For instance, if you lose 10% of your investment, you need to gain more than 10% to get back to your original amount. This is because the base amount has decreased after the loss. Understanding risk asymmetry is crucial for traders because it affects their risk management strategies. Knowing that larger losses require exponentially larger gains to recover can help traders make more informed decisions about their trades and risk exposure. ▮ Illustrating Risk Asymmetry To illustrate risk asymmetry, let's consider an initial investment of $1000. The table below shows the required gain to recover from various percentage losses: Explanation: - Loss (%): The percentage loss from the initial amount. - Value Lost ($): The lost monetary value from the initial amount. - Amount After Loss ($): The remaining amount after the loss. - Required Gain for Recovery (%): The percentage gain required to recover to the initial amount. This table highlights the asymmetry in trading losses and gains. As the loss percentage increases, the required gain to recover the initial amount increases disproportionately. For example, if you lose 50% of your initial amount ( $500 ), it is not enough for you to gain 50% , because the amount left after the loss is $500 , and a 50% gain on the amount of $500 is $250 , which would result in a total amount of $750 with a remaining loss of $250 ! So, the most important question is not how much can I win , but how much can I lose . Curiosity: Why 100% is not applicable (-) in this table? When you lose 100% of your investment, you have lost all your capital. Therefore, there is no remaining amount to recover from, and it is impossible to gain back to the initial amount from zero. This is why the required gain are marked as not applicable. ▮ Conclusion Understanding risk asymmetry can help traders in several ways: 1. Risk Management: traders can set stop-loss levels to limit their losses and avoid the need for large gains to recover. 2. Position Sizing: by understanding the potential impact of losses, traders can size their positions more conservatively. 3. Psychological Preparedness: knowing the challenges of recovering from significant losses can help traders maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making. It is one thing to lose 100% of a dollar on a casino bet; it is quite another to lose 100% of a lifetime's worth of capital. Therefore, the larger the capital at stake, the smaller the amount of money that should ideally be risked.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by andre_007
5
Mastering Fibonacci in TradingMastering Fibonacci in Trading Unlock the secrets of Fibonacci and its applications in trading. Learn how to utilize this powerful tool to find optimal entry and exit points, manage risks, and enhance your trading strategies. What is Fibonacci? The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. The sequence begins as follows: The sequence is named after the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci, who introduced it to Western mathematics in his book Liber Abaci in 1202. One of the fascinating properties of this sequence is the ratio between successive numbers, which converges to approximately 1.618—known as the Golden Ratio . The Golden Ratio and Its Significance The Golden Ratio (1.618) and its inverse (0.618) appear frequently in nature, art, architecture, and financial markets. In trading, these ratios, along with derivatives like 0.382 and 0.786, are used to identify potential support and resistance levels. How Fibonacci Became a Trading Tool Traders and analysts observed that price movements often respect Fibonacci levels, retracing or extending along these key points. This led to the creation of Fibonacci-based tools, such as: Fibonacci Retracement : Used to identify potential reversal levels during pullbacks. Fibonacci Extension : Helps forecast profit-taking levels during trends. Fibonacci Arcs, Fans, and Time Zones : Advanced tools for multi-dimensional analysis. Using Fibonacci in Trading Step 1: Identifying the Swing High and Swing Low Select a clear price movement, either an uptrend or a downtrend, and mark the highest point (swing high) and lowest point (swing low). Step 2: Applying Fibonacci Retracement Using the Fibonacci tool on platforms like TradingView, draw from the swing low to the swing high (for uptrends) or from the swing high to the swing low (for downtrends). Key levels to monitor are: 0.236 (23.6%) 0.382 (38.2%) 0.5 (50%) 0.618 (61.8%) 0.786 (78.6%) These levels often act as support or resistance zones. ICT Optimal Trade Entry Zone Fibonacci retracement levels have been widely used by traders, from traditional to Smart Money concepts. While technical analysis has evolved, traditional tools like Fibonacci retracement levels still hold their relevance. A modern adaptation of this is the ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) concept. The Fibonacci level range from 62% (0.618) to 79% (0.786) is known as the Optimal Trade Entry Zone . This zone is critical for identifying high-probability reversal points during retracements. Bullish Setup : In an uptrend, the OTE zone provides a favorable entry point when the price pulls back to this area, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Bearish Setup : In a downtrend, the OTE zone serves as a resistance area where the price is likely to reverse and continue its downward trajectory. The Golden Pocket The zone between the 0.618 and 0.650 levels is also referred to as the "Golden Pocket," emphasizing its importance as a high-probability area for price reversals or trend continuation. Combining Fibonacci with Other Tools Fibonacci works best when combined with other technical analysis tools: Candlestick Patterns : Confirmation signals for reversals or continuations. Trendlines : Validate key Fibonacci levels. Volume Analysis : Assess the strength of price movements near Fibonacci levels. ICT Strategies : Use concepts like mitigation blocks or liquidity voids to refine entry points in the OTE zone. Practical Applications Scalping: Use Fibonacci on shorter timeframes to identify intraday opportunities. Swing Trading: Combine Fibonacci retracements with trend analysis for multi-day trades. Long-Term Investing: Employ Fibonacci on weekly or monthly charts to identify major turning points. Conclusion Fibonacci tools are essential for any trader looking to enhance their market analysis. By mastering these tools, including the ICT Optimal Trade Entry concept, you can: Identify optimal entry and exit points. Manage risks more effectively. Gain deeper insights into market behavior. Start experimenting with Fibonacci today on TradingView and discover how it can transform your trading strategy!
Education
by BigBeluga
19
Lucid Stock Dips Under $3 Ahead of Big Milestone—Should You Buy?Lucid Motors, the Saudi-backed luxury EV startup, is approaching its make-or-break moment. After the company exceeded its production target and delivered a record number of Air sedans, its first and only model, Lucid is getting ready to release its SUV, the Lucid Gravity. Game changer? Or more like... game on? Let’s find out. Lucid stock LCID slipped under the $3 handle on Wednesday after it had advanced all the way to $3.60 on the upbeat news that it delivered a record number of luxury EV sedans in the fourth quarter. Lucid, which is backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, delivered a record 3,099 Air sedans in the three months to December, up from 2,781 units in the prior three-month stretch. What’s more, Lucid exceeded its own production guidance for 2024 — 9,029 slick-looking wheels rolled off the assembly line, surpassing the 9,000 projected. Deliveries for the full 2024 came in at 10,241. Now, the next milestone looms. The commercial launch of its sports utility vehicle (SUV) — Lucid Gravity is nearly here. The bad boy is already available for purchase and it’s getting ready to hit the roads in the coming weeks. The company kicked off production on time, as promised, before the end of 2024 and opened the hotline for orders . The Gravity SUV is charged up to the teeth, able to drive farther than any Tesla TSLA . A unit of the higher-spec grade will run you about $95,000 and flexes 450 miles (roughly 720 kilometers) on a single charge, compared to Tesla’s max range of about 350 miles (560 kilometers). As a bonus, it boasts ultrafast charging times. “We have achieved this with an impressively small battery pack compared to competitors. This is critical to preserving earth’s precious resources,” CEO Peter Rawlinson said in a statement on Monday. Now let’s talk share price. The soft launch of the Lucid Gravity, followed by the record Q4 delivery figure fueled a wave of buying. In December alone, Lucid shares added more than 40% to their valuation, going from $2 to around $3. But that’s 70% lower than the stock’s price tag on the first day it floated shares back in 2021 via a SPAC reverse merger. In all fairness, it’s excruciatingly difficult to navigate the challenging EV market , not to mention the vast universe of auto makers . And Rawlinson already knows it — he is the former Tesla Model S chief engineer. Investors are ramping up hopes that the commercial release of the Lucid Gravity will help lift up the languishing share price. The company, however, is expected to continue burning cash (i.e. no profits any time soon) for the sake of expanding its production and maintaining sales growth. For the third quarter of last year, the net loss was $992.5 million, up from $630.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Now everything hinges on the new SUV and its appeal to customers. The next step is to get it inside more than 50 showrooms for test drives, marketing and sales. “Once we have produced those vehicles, we’ll start delivering to a broader group of customers. This is just the beginning,” Rawlinson wrote in a post on LinkedIn last week, promising a “remarkable 2025.” So should you buy the shares? Here’s what Lucid got going for it. 🚀 The bullish case: Affordable share price — retail traders can scoop up in boatloads Tiny market cap of $10 billion — lots of room for potential growth Backed by the Saudi monarchy — lots of cash to support the biz Advanced EV battery technology — company can cut edge and innovate Advanced, luxury EV niche — premium, high-performance models Range above anything the EV market can offer — Tesla is in the dust Scalable product line — Lucid plans to roll out sub-$50,000 models in 2026 💥 The bearish case: High capital expenditures — low-hanging fruit here, Lucid spends a lot Hasn’t been around for very long — making cars since 2016 Lacks the Lindy effect — uncertain likelihood of continued cash flow Limited customer base — it’s a high-end product in a tough market Pricing wars — competitors with more affordable EVs could limit Lucid’s market share Concentration risk — Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns roughly 60% of Lucid and may decide to stop or reduce its cash injections Prone to speculation — tiny market cap makes the stock vulnerable to swings (is that really bad, though?) So is Lucid a gem for the diamond-handed, a rocket to the moon or a bag-holding investment? What’s your take? Share your thoughts below!
NASDAQ:LCID
by TradingView
13
The Evolution of a Trader: A Structured Path to MasteryTrading in financial markets, especially in the volatile cryptocurrency sector, is both challenging and rewarding. I’m Skeptic , and through my observations, traders grow through distinct stages, each teaching vital lessons. Beginners focus on research, intermediates learn adaptability, and advanced traders refine emotional discipline and strategies. This article explores how to evolve from a novice to a master trader. 🌟 Stage 1: The Total Beginner 🧐📉 Characteristics: Beginners are often optimistic and eager, placing trades based on tips from friends, forums, or influencers. Early successes may create a false sense of confidence. Challenges: Losses from unreliable tips reveal the necessity of personal research and a deeper understanding of the market. Psychological Impact: Emotional highs from early wins are quickly followed by the disappointment of losses. This phase teaches humility and emphasizes the need for continuous learning. Stage 2: The Search for the "Holy Grail" 🔍🔧 Characteristics: Traders enter a phase of hunting for the perfect indicator or strategy. They explore tools like RSI, MACD, or Fibonacci retracements and invest in advanced trading software. Challenges: The realization that no single method guarantees consistent success. Markets are dynamic, requiring adaptable strategies. Key Lesson: Success lies not in a magical formula but in understanding market psychology, developing a robust trading plan, and mastering risk management. Stage 3: Making Money but Not Consistently 💰 Characteristics: Traders begin to see some profits but struggle with consistency. They may prematurely take profits due to fear or hold losing trades too long, hoping for a reversal. Challenges: Emotional turbulence and inconsistent decision-making hinder progress. Key Focus: Develop emotional resilience and adhere to a disciplined trading approach. Stick to your trading plan regardless of short-term outcomes. Stage 4: Consistent Small Profits 📈💵 Characteristics: Traders start achieving consistent small gains by focusing on disciplined risk management and a refined strategy. Challenges: Avoiding impulsive trades and staying committed to the process over the outcome. Key Lesson: Small, consistent gains build the foundation for long-term success. Discipline and patience are critical at this stage. Stage 5: Professional Consistently Profitable Trader 🏆 Characteristics: Trading becomes a reliable source of income. Traders implement advanced money management techniques and stick rigorously to their trading plans. Challenges: Scaling positions responsibly and maintaining focus during market volatility. Key Tools: Position sizing Trade management (e.g., stop-losses and profit targets) Continuous performance review Stage 6: The Master Trader 🎯 Characteristics: Trading becomes second nature. Master traders confidently manage large positions, adapt to market changes, and achieve multi-fold annual returns. Key Focus: Controlled risks, strategic scaling, and calm decision-making. The Pinnacle: Mastery is not about taking excessive risks but about deep market understanding and a systematic approach to trading. Conclusion 📈💡 The journey to becoming a master trader is transformative. Each stage, from the enthusiastic beginner to the seasoned expert, offers lessons that shape both trading skill and personal growth. Success in trading is not about finding shortcuts but embracing the process, persevering through challenges, and continuously learning. 📚 Key takeaways: Trading requires humility, discipline, and adaptability. Consistent profits stem from robust strategies, risk management, and emotional resilience. Mastery involves developing a systematic approach and achieving balance between risk and reward. Thanks for reading until the end of this article! ❤ Your support keeps me going, and I’m excited to share more insights with you. If there’s anything you want me to cover next, just let me know. Let’s keep learning and crushing it together! ✨ - Skeptic :)
Education
by SkepticWise
20
Predict market HIGH/LOW with Gann Astro Trading Calculated Gold’s Reversal 6 Hours Before It Happened Using Gann Astro Techniques OANDA:XAUUSD On December 24, I calculated a reversal in gold 6 hours prior to its occurrence, utilizing Gann Astro techniques and mathematical models. This analysis allowed me to identify key turning points in the market based on time rather than price. Many traders focus solely on price, but Gann’s principles emphasize that time (Y-axis) is the dominant factor driving market movements. For this calculation, I incorporated the Ascendant as a critical element in my intraday trading approach, demonstrating the significance of aligning market analysis with time functions. Key Observation: The market reversed at exactly 10:30 AM New York Time (UTC-5), aligning perfectly with the pre-determined time calculated through Gann Astro techniques. On the 45-minute timeframe for gold, the chart confirms the reversal occurred precisely at the calculated time. This underscores the reliability of time-based analysis over traditional methods that often focus on price alone. Why Time is More Important than Price: 1. Time is constant and unaffected by external manipulation. 2. Highs and lows in the market are governed by fixed time cycles. 3. Price, being variable, is a secondary function delivered based on time. By switching to the 15-minute timeframe, the precision of these calculations becomes even more evident. This highlights how time-based analysis reveals market behaviour that might otherwise appear random. Gann Intraday Techniques in Action: The Gann Astro methodology integrates planetary positions and mathematical principles to forecast turning points in the market. The principle "time is more important than price" is consistently validated, showing that market reversals are governed by time cycles rather than unpredictable price movements. On December 26, after the market reopened, the price fulfilled its movement to key liquidity zones identified earlier. This demonstrates how time cycles dictate the market's behaviour, with price aligning naturally to these pre-determined movements. Advanced Insights: - The Y-axis represents time, the immutable factor. - The X-axis represents price, which is secondary and can be influenced. Most traders fail in the market because they only focus on PRICE. However, according to W.D. Gann's principles, TIME is MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE. Big institutions can manipulate price movements, but TIME is a fixed entity that cannot be altered. The attached graph illustrates a fundamental yet overlooked concept: 1. Y-Axis → TIME 2. X-Axis → PRICE In reality, every high or low in the market is pre-determined by TIME, not price. Gann's Astro methods use planetary positions, ascendants, and advanced mathematical calculations to predict EXACTLY when the next HIGH or LOW will form in intraday markets. Key Insights: 1. TIME as the Guiding Factor: - The market operates like a clock, where each move happens ON TIME. - Highs and lows form according to fixed celestial cycles, not random price moves. 2. Price Delivery Algorithm: - Price follows a delivery system that respects TIME. - Without understanding TIME, traders become gamblers. 3.Intraday Gann Astro Example: - With calculations based on ascendant planetary alignments, TIME of specific turning points in intraday markets can be predicted. - Example from the chart: - At (2,1), a TIME-driven HIGH forms. - At (4,-1), a LOW forms based on pre-determined calculations. 4.What Gann Astro Does Differently: - Combines planetary positions and mathematics to forecast turning points. - Helps traders trade WITH CONFIDENCE instead of guessing. - Predict highs/lows hours before they happen. Now here is the Gann Intraday Trade Example. And now observe when the price was delivered — it formed a strong reversal precisely at the TIME I calculated, 07:45. TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE Why Traders Lose Without TIME Knowledge: 1. Traders rely on price patterns, indicators, and technical setups, ignoring the foundational concept of TIME. 2. TIME is constant and unchangeable, while price can be manipulated. 3. Without mastering TIME, traders are reactive instead of predictive. Here’s another LIVE trade execution of this week. The trade was precisely calculated 5 hours in advance, demonstrating the power of Gann Intraday Astro Trading. Below, I’ve outlined the step-by-step analysis of my LIVE trade on GOLD using the Gann Astro principles and advanced mathematical calculations. This is a testament to how TIME, not just price, drives market movements, allowing you to predict turning points with exceptional accuracy. The chart clearly demonstrates how I calculated the price reversal a solid 4-5 hours in advance using the Gann Intraday Astro technique. The exact time of reversal was determined to be 6:45, purely based on TIME. Watch closely as I executed the trade relying solely on this precise calculation. This is further proof that TIME is the real driver, while PRICE remains an illusion manipulated by the market. LIVE TRADE ENETRY - TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE The real truth lies in TIME, not PRICE—because TIME is fixed, and PRICE is just an illusion manipulated by the market. NOW let's understand how markets turn on TIME - . By applying Gann-inspired mathematical and astro models, I pinpointed key times when market highs and lows are likely to occur. The principle of "TIME = PRICE" suggests that market reversals happen when time and price align. While price can be manipulated, time remains constant, making it a more reliable tool for accurate market forecasting. GANN INTRADAY TRADING - "The Hidden Truth: Why Gann's TIME Over PRICE Wins in Trading" In this chart, you can see the market reversing exactly at 21:05, a TIME I calculated in advance using Gann's astro intraday techniques. The method applied here is Squaring the Range—a concept rooted in understanding the range as the time zone where the price remains confined between two major HIGHs and LOWs. Using advanced mathematical principles in Gann astro analysis, I was able to determine the precise future reversal point. This allows me to approach my trading desk only at the calculated time and execute trades with confidence. This highlights why TIME outweighs PRICE in importance—while prices can be manipulated, TIME remains a constant and reliable indicator for market reversals. "GANN INTRADAY TRADING - Exposing Market Algorithms: Gann's TIME Secrets Revealed" In earlier times, markets were primarily influenced by market makers, but now, price delivery is controlled by algorithms designed to enhance liquidity. With the massive influx of participants in today’s market, these algorithms play a critical role in maintaining liquidity flow. Despite these changes, the core principle remains intact: the market still moves based on mass psychology. Here’s another example showcasing a bullish scenario using Gann techniques. In this bullish setup, the focus is on identifying key time cycles when the price delivery algorithm aligns with Gann's mathematical principles. By leveraging time-based calculations, I pinpointed the exact moment when the market began expanding upward, indicating a strong bullish movement. Conclusion: Understanding and applying time-based principles provide traders with a disciplined, research-driven approach to market analysis. By focusing on time rather than price, one can uncover the natural rhythm of the markets and align their strategies accordingly. Time is the constant that governs all market movements, as W.D. Gann emphasized: “Time is more important than price.”
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by GannAstroTrader
19
Strategy testing: is it enough? Hey everyone, I wanted to touch on a topic that I don’t think is discussed nearly enough here, and that topic is backtesting. How reliable is it really? Most people would assume that backtest results are solid. You get a backtest with a 74% success rate, and you think you've won the lottery! However, there are some grey areas when it comes to backtesting. In fact, backtesting should only be the first step in multiple phases one should go through to ensure a strategy is indeed profitable. First, let’s dispel some myths about accuracy vs. profitability. High accuracy = high profitability? This is false. A high accuracy does not always mean profitability. The considerations that must go into this fact are: - At what point are you taking profits? If a buy signal occurs and you take profits at about 0.50 cents from the buy signal, then this is not a feasible strategy or one with a great risk-reward (R:R) ratio. - How long are you holding? If the strategy has high accuracy but requires you to hold for 2 to 3 years before seeing profits, then this defeats the purpose of most trading strategies, as this is simply an investment strategy, which, in itself, is a solid approach. These are two common issues I see in strategies that lead to misleading “accuracy” results. Low accuracy = not profitable. This is false. Low accuracy strategies tend to be the best strategies because the focus of these strategies is usually on holding for major targets, with strict stop-loss parameters. You will be profitable infrequently, but when you win, you will win big. A real-life example of this would be Michael Burry’s successful short. While his successful short became the story of books and movies, his multiple failed attempts at making major shorts before and after this trade have been overshadowed by his success in the 2008 bubble short. Thus, Michael Burry has a low accuracy but a high profitability factor. How can we better decide on successful strategies? This is the question that any day or swing trader should be asking: How do we validate the efficacy or efficiency of our strategy? This is where things get somewhat complicated. The emphasis I see in the trading community is on just general accuracy and profit factor. I also see some discussions on Sharpe ratios. I think it’s important to understand these concepts before we continue. Accuracy: Accuracy is simply the number of successful trades over the total number of trades, multiplied by 100. So, 49 successful trades out of 50 total trades would equal an accuracy of 98%. Profit factor: Profit factor is the total gross profits divided by the total gross losses over the course of the strategy testing period. For example, if over the last 4 weeks, you made $800 and lost $250, your profit factor would be 800/250 = 3.2. Sharpe Ratio: Sharpe ratios are slightly more complex. This ratio attempts to evaluate the risk-adjusted return of an investment/portfolio or trading strategy. It works by taking the average return of the strategy/portfolio or investment and subtracting the risk-free rate. The risk-free rate can be something like government bills or a simple high-interest savings rate. Then, you take the remaining value and divide it by the standard deviation of the investment/portfolio or strategy profits. For example, let’s say your strategy generally yields 10%. The risk-free rate of a high-interest savings account is 2%. The standard deviation of your profit strategy is around 15% (this would be calculated by taking all of your returns from your strategy, both positive and negative, and calculating the standard deviation). In this case, the Sharpe ratio would equal 0.53. An excellent Sharpe ratio is >2. A Sharpe ratio <2 but >1 is considered good. The average Sharpe ratio for most returns is <1 and is more realistic. TradingView’s strategy tester actually provides you with a calculation of the Sharpe ratio. Simply apply a strategy to your chart and head over to the “performance summary” tab: In general, you should treat any Sharpe ratio >1 with extreme skepticism. So, are these approaches enough to determine how successful a strategy will be? No, absolutely not. Even with a good Sharpe ratio, an okay accuracy, and a high profit factor, you cannot be guaranteed that the strategy will be successful. Why not? This is a complex question, and I think it’s best answered from a biostatistics approach (mostly because this is my field, haha). In biostatistics and epidemiology, we have something that can be closely linked to stocks. It's called a “web of causation.” What this means is there are numerous factors that influence a person’s health, and it is very challenging to control and account for all these factors. Take a make-believe person, Mrs. Jones and her family. At first glance, Mrs. Jones and her family may appear well-dressed, affluent, well-groomed, and healthy. Now, let’s say we want to trade based on Mrs. and Mr. Jones’ likelihood of living to 80 years old (we are playing the insurance actuary’s job now, haha). The only information we have on this family is that they appear affluent, show no signs of illness, and they are pleasant people. Believe it or not, this is about all the information we have at a single point in time on a stock. That’s all we can really know at the time of trade execution. We can speculate further, but we can’t really know all of the impacting factors on the stock. Now, let’s say we buy calls on the Jones family living to 80 based on what we observe. Now, 12 years have passed, and Mr. Jones ends up ill and in the hospital. Two months later, he sadly passes away. Then, 1.5 years after that, Mrs. Jones sadly passes away from cancer. Your position is now worthless. What happened? We ignored and were not able to view the full picture. The Jones family had a lower socioeconomic status. Mr. Jones liked to drink over 4 alcoholic drinks per day. They lived in an older home that did not have sufficient insulation and protection from the elements. They also lived beneath a power grid distribution zone and right next to a high EMF emitting cellphone tower that was constructed right after the family moved in 11 years ago. Mrs. Jones’ family had all died 2 years ago, before the age of 68 from cancer, and Mr. Jones’ family had a history of health issues and alcoholism. We can visualize a web of causation through this image: Some of these things we could have found out, namely the socioeconomic status and Mr. Jones’ history of alcoholism. However, most of these things did not appear until midway through our bet. For example, at the time, we did not know that they would build a high EMF emitting tower right next to their house, and Mrs. Jones’ family did not die until 8 years into our position. So how could we have known? The truth is, we couldn’t have. It’s impossible! We could have done better due diligence by obtaining the current and most recent family history and socioeconomic situation. We could have obtained information on the location and house the family was living in. But most of these things happened along the way, and it would have been impossible to foresee them. This is the reality of stock trading. The issue with stocks is that it is impossible to know what the future holds for a company or the economy. The stock market has a multifaceted web of causations, such as the current economic status of a country, global affairs, war, presidency, a company’s overall financial stability, unexpected lawsuits, unexpected losses, bankruptcies, interest rates, and other economic disasters. Here’s what a web of causation could look like for the stock market: So, what can we do? Here are some tips for ensuring that we capture the most accurate picture we can of a strategy. We’ll start with some easy, quick-to-implement approaches and then go into some more advanced, higher-level approaches. Easier approaches: - Ensure you utilize a larger lookback period. TradingView has the ability to do what is called “deep backtesting.” This allows you to backtest a strategy from many weeks, months, and years in the past. Make use of this function! One of the biggest issues with strategy backtesting is focusing on a limited lookback period. This introduces bias and omits a vast amount of data. - Analyze the statistics presented in TradingView’s backtester performance summary. Be very skeptical of Sharpe ratios >= 1.2 and profit factors >= 1.5. Make sure you look at the entries and exits of the strategy, and the average trade length and profit: - Warning signs to look for are an abnormally long period of time in a trade (be sure it’s proportionate to the timeframe you are on—for example, 150 bars on the daily is almost a year!) and frequent trades with marginal profits. Advanced Approaches: Most quantitative traders and financial institutions apply something called forward testing. Forward testing includes a number of statistical tests that can determine whether the results of the backtest are statistically significant. For example, applying a simple Chi-Square test can determine whether there is a statistically significant difference between the number of winning trades and losing trades. A t-test can be applied to a bond/fixed interest rate account performance and your strategy to compare whether there is a statistically significant difference between the profits yielded by your strategy vs. a safe investment or high-interest savings position. These can be accomplished in Python, R, Excel, or even Pine Script (using my SPTS library, which gives you the ability to calculate a paired and one-tailed t-test right within Pine Script). The details on how to do this are higher level and beyond the scope of this article, but I will continue the series on backtesting/forward testing into the future with some examples of how one can forward test within Pine Script and Excel. Another method is by omitting future data points, testing the strategy's success over a specified period, and then executing it on the future points to see if the results compare. If you notice a marked difference between the previous period and the forward period, this should signal alarm bells. For example: The above chart shows the difference that can happen due to changing sentiments and economic circumstances, and that a strategy can be inconsistent and contingent on external factors beyond our knowledge or control. Conclusion And that’s it! This will mark my first educational article of 2025! Hopefully, you learned something and take this to apply to your trading. Be careful, and as always, safe trades, everyone!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Steversteves
15
GBP/CAD - Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.7787 2nd Support – 1.7722 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
51
BITCOIN Cycle Top can be as high as $200kBitcoin (BTCUSD) has started 2025 on high volatility amidst geopolitical and economic news input. 2025 is the last year of this Bull Cycle, according to the Cycles Theory which for more than a decade has been very accurate at predicting Cycle Tops and Bottoms. ** LGC, MMB and Pi Cycle * On today's analysis we present to you this view in more detail by displaying Bitcoin's Logarithmic Growth Channel (LGC) with the addition of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) and the Pi Cycle trend-lines. From the MMB we use its extremes, the 3SD above (red trend-line), which is the Mayer Top and the 3SD below (black trend-line), which is the Mayer Bottom. From the Pi Cycle we use a tighter range, its top trend-line (orange) and bottom trend-line (green), which form a zone that typically serves as more of a 'Fair Value' before the Bear Cycle's extreme selling and Bull Cycle's extreme buying (Parabolic Rally). ** Current Cycle in 2025 ** As mentioned, BTC has entered the last year of its current Bull Cycle. Based on this cyclical pattern, the 3 previous Tops have been either on a November or December. As a result, we expect the new Cycle Top to start forming by November 2025. The last one was formed above the Pi Cycle Top (never hit the Mayer Top) and on the 2nd LGC Zone from the top. This suggests that even if the price barely tests the bottom for the LGC 2nd Zone from the Top, by November 2025 we should be close to $200000. Technically the projected Peak Zone should be within the 180k - 200k range. That may still be below the Pi Cycle Top, so technically we can argue that it is a fair scenario to expect and not an overly optimistic. Unrealistic or not, this is what 3 separate traditional long-term models suggest. But what do you think? Is a $180-200k Top a realistic expectation within 2025? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
46
"A familiar setup playing out in real time." Oh, this setup is textbook, and it’s got that “fool-me-once” vibe written all over it. See that blue circle? That’s a classic squeeze on the correlation—pressure cooking under the surface, waiting to blow. And when it pops, price has no choice but to follow, just like those yellow moves laid out perfectly before. It’s a familiar tune with a fresh beat, and I’m all in for the ride. Now, everyone’s shouting bearish, headlines are screaming “doom and gloom,” but you know what? That’s fake news. This dip? It’s bait—a straight-up bear trap. And while everyone else is sweating, I’m grinning. Why? Because the VWAP is whispering the truth—a clean golden cross brewing right in front of us. You don’t ignore a setup like this. You ride it. Here’s the kicker: this isn’t some random coincidence. That squeeze and KC tightening? It’s a familiar setup in high definition. — a repeating pattern that’s ready to do what it always does. The market’s playing checkers, but this setup is straight-up chess. I see the trap, I see the squeeze, and I know exactly how this game ends—bulls breaking free and price ripping higher.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
117
Wells Fargo & Company: Here's Why Investors Shouldn't Miss Out!Hello, Wells Fargo & Company is a financial services company. It provides a diversified set of banking, investment and mortgage products and services, and consumer and commercial finance, through banking locations and offices, the Internet www.wellsfargo.com) and other distribution channels to individuals, businesses and institutions in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and in countries outside the United States. Its segments include Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth and Investment Management. The Wealth and Investment Management segment provides personalized wealth management, brokerage, financial planning, lending, private banking, trust and fiduciary products and services to affluent, high-net worth and ultra-high-net worth clients. Commercial Banking products and services include banking and credit products across multiple industry sectors and municipalities, secured lending and lease products, and treasury management. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist 1.Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown below 2.Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The price is currently correcting & filling the Nov 5th gap. 3.Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- 0 crossover on MACD. 4.Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown 5.Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price $90 FINANCIAL SUMMARY BRIEF : From 2018 to 2023, total revenue increased overall from $96.25 billion to $116.22 billion, though it dipped in 2020 and 2022; net interest income fluctuated, starting at $49.99 billion in 2018, dropping to $35.78 billion in 2021, then recovering to $52.38 billion by 2023; meanwhile, net income was highly variable, peaking at $19.55 billion in 2019, significantly dropping to $3.38 billion in 2020, before soaring to $1.914 billion in 2023. Risks to consider •Revenue growth has become challenging at Wells Fargo. Though the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 50 basis points in September 2024, the bank’s Non-Interest Income may continue to face challenges in the near term as stabilizing funding costs might take time. The company is trying to increase fee-based income sources, but it will take some time to reflect in its financials. Hence, top-line growth is less likely to improve in the quarters ahead. Q3 EARNINGS SUMMARY (Date of release 11.10.2024) (Next report date Jan 15,2025) •Wells Fargo reported a net income of $5.1 billion down from 5.7 billion in the same Quarter last year 2023. •Total revenue decreased to $20.37 billion, down from $20.86 billion in Q3 2023. •Non-interest expenses were slightly reduced to $13.07 billion, compared to $13.11 billion a year earlier. •The provision for credit losses was reported at $1.07 billion, down from $1.20 billion in Q3 2023. •Average loans were $910.3 billion, a decrease from $943.2 billion. •Average deposits increased slightly to $1,341.7 billion, compared to $1,340.3 billion. •The bank repurchased 62 million shares, totaling $3.5 billion in Q3 2024. •Return on Equity (ROE) was at 11.7%, down from 13.3% in the prior year. •Return on Average Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) decreased to 13.9%, from 15.9%. •Consumer Banking and Lending revenues decreased by 5%, primarily due to lower deposit balances. •Commercial Banking revenues showed a slight decline of 2%, while Corporate and Investment Banking revenues remained stable. •CEO Charlie Scharf highlighted ongoing investments in diverse revenue sources, with fee-based revenue growing by 16% during the first nine months of the year, largely offsetting net interest income challenges. Our recommendation Wells Fargo reported third-quarter earnings of $5.1 billion, which included a one-time loss of $447 million ($0.10 per share) due to adjustments in their investment securities portfolio. Despite this setback, the bank's strategic realignment is expected to bolster future interest income. Over the past year, Wells Fargo's stock has corrected -12% since November 2024 giving us a great entry opportunity. Key to note is also that Wells Fargo’s Share Repurchase has been performing a share repurchase program. In the reported quarter 3 2024, Wells Fargo repurchased 62 million shares, or $3.5 billion, of common stock. From a technical perspective, the recent correction in the Wells Fargo & Company stock provides a perfect entry point for this stock. The stock has approached its moving averages, which often signals potential support levels. Additionally, there's an anticipation of a zero crossover on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), an indicator used to spot changes in a stock's momentum, suggesting a possible shift from bearish to bullish trends. This combination of technical signals indicates that the stock might be at an advantageous point for entry. Our target for this stock is at USD 90.14 with a buy at USD 71.31. Looking ahead, external factors like the election of Donald Trump and Republican control of Congress present potential opportunities for the U.S. banking sector, evidenced by a post-election rally of over 10% for many bank stocks. While valuations in the sector range from fair to slightly overvalued, easing capital regulations—such as the revised Basel III proposal that lowers capital requirements for large banks—could spur balance sheet growth, profitability, and shareholder returns. The proposed law revisions to reduce capital requirements and a more conducive environment for mergers and acquisitions could enhance profitability and shareholder returns. Our recommendation is Buy on this stock.
NYSE:WFCLong
by thesharkke
18
Crafting the Perfect 2025 Trading Journal: Here’s All You NeedThere’s something about cracking open a brand-new trading journal at the start of the year that feels downright ceremonial. A fresh page (or the blank spaces on your template) unmarred by the scribbles of bad trades or impulsive decisions. The surge of excitement that goes through your veins as you imagine all potential profits and accumulated knowledge that could end up on that piece of paper (or pixels). Still, despite all the wisdom and insight that a written record can give you, most trading journals end up looking like forgotten diaries. They get abandoned sometime around February, right next to that half-baked gym membership. And that’s a bummer! Your trading journal isn’t just a log of wins and losses; it’s the roadmap to better decisions and a more profitable year. If you’ve ever wondered why seasoned traders swear by this habit, it’s because those scribbles often hold the secrets to what’s working, what’s failing, and which psychological gremlins are hijacking your trades or causing you to miss opportunities. ✍️ Why Every Trade Deserves Ink (or Pixels) Trading without documentation is akin to sailing without a map or running without setting checkpoints and an end goal. Every trade—good or bad—carries data. Writing it down transforms fleeting market moments into permanent lessons. It highlights patterns that the eye glosses over in the heat of battle and reveals tendencies you didn’t even know you had. For example, did you buy Dogecoin DOGE on impulse every time Elon Musk tweeted? Or maybe you overtraded small caps on Fridays because that’s when coffee hits hardest. Or maybe you didn’t bet enough when you had conviction on a forex pair? These patterns hide in plain sight until they’re laid bare on paper. A journal bridges the gap between emotional trading and methodical refinement. 📖 What to Actually Write Down (Hint: More Than Just Numbers) If your journal consists of a date, ticker, and a hasty “profit/loss” column, you’re barely scratching the surface. A trading journal should feel like a post-game analysis. Beyond the basic details (entry, exit, size, P&L), the real gold lies in your thought process. Document why you entered the trade. What did you see? Was there a technical breakout, or were you chasing a Reddit-fueled rocket? Record the emotions that accompanied your trade—nerves, confidence, greed. Were you following your system, or did you veer off course? Trades aren’t made in a vacuum; understanding the context around them provides clarity. Even the trades you didn’t take deserve a mention. Hesitation to pull the trigger or missing a setup can reveal psychological patterns that hold back performance. Here’s a sample set of columns that you may want to add to your template. 💡 Pro tip: make it a monthly template so you can break down the year by the month. Trading Instrument Trade direction Position size Your entry Your exit Your stop loss (yes, add that, too) Your take profit Your realized profit or loss Your risk/reward ratio Your reason to open the trade Your state of mind (more on that in the next paragraph) Transaction costs (fees, spreads, commissions) Trade rating (e.g., 1-10, or “Good,” “Great,” “Needs More Work”) Trade notes Account balance at the start of the month Account balance at the end of the month Monthly profit/loss result Year-to-date profit/loss result Having a template like this will help you stay organized, improve your trading strategy, and identify patterns in your performance and results. So grab a pen and list (or go to an online graphic design platform) and get creative! 🤫 The Emotional Audit: Your Secret Weapon A trader’s greatest adversary isn’t the market—it’s themselves. Emotional trades account for some of the most catastrophic losses. One poorly timed revenge trade can undo weeks of careful gains. This is why a portion of your journal should be reserved for emotional audits. After every trading session, reflect on how you felt. Did anxiety creep in during a drawdown? Were you overconfident after a winning streak? Emotions, when left unchecked, can drive irrational decisions. Journaling those feelings makes them tangible and easier to manage. It’s like therapy, but instead of lying on a couch, you’re documenting why you YOLO’d into Tesla TSLA . 😮 Spotting Patterns You Didn’t Know Existed Patterns in trading journals are sneaky. Sometimes, the worst losing streaks aren’t the result of market volatility but bad habits we refuse to notice. Maybe you consistently lose on Mondays or after three consecutive wins. Perhaps you cut winners too soon but let losers run because hope dies last. Journaling reveals these quirks in brutal detail. Reviewing your trades at the end of each month will expose recurring mistakes (or hidden strengths). Over time, you’ll be able to tighten risk management, adjust strategies, and weed out tendencies that silently bleed your account. 🤑 How to Stay Consistent (Even When You’re Lazy) Let’s face it: journaling isn’t glamorous, especially when you wake up after a bad trade and you need to face Mr. Market again. But consistency is key. Set a 15-minute window after your trading day to jot down what happened—trades, thoughts, emotions, lessons. It’s short enough to stay manageable but long enough to capture the core of your experience. 🧐 Reviewing the Wreckage: Monthly Reflection Sessions At the end of each month, conduct a full review of your journal. This isn’t just for performance metrics—it’s about personal growth. Ask the hard questions: What trades did I regret? What big moves did I miss? Where did I second-guess myself? Which trades followed my plan? You’ll notice themes emerging. Maybe you trade best during certain hours or you lean more to specific assets and markets. This retrospective analysis creates a loop of constant improvement. The goal isn’t to trade more but to trade better. 🧭 Wrapping It Up: Your Trading Journal as a Compass By the end of the year, your journal will read like a narrative of your trading journey—complete with victories, defeats, and lessons learned. More importantly, you’ll know yourself better than anyone (except for Google maybe) — you’ll know your trading habits, psychological traits and the written record of your performance in case you want to open up a hedge fund and need the track record for the investors. So, grab that journal, digital or otherwise, and start logging. Because while the market may be unpredictable, the reflections in your journal will chart the way forward. And who knows? Maybe next year you’ll flip through it and laugh at the trades you once thought were genius. After all, growth is part of the game.
Education
by TradingView
15
Bitcoin: Bullish Until 90K Is Broken.Bitcoin has found support in the low 90K area (read my previous week's analysis). As long as 90K stays intact it is within reason to continue to have bullish expectations. Also wrote in the previous article that overly optimistic expectations are not in line with the developing price structure. Based on the inside bar formation that is developing now (see arrow), price is likely to test the 102,500 area minor resistance. IF it gets there, and what happens after is anyone's GUESS. The idea here is to be prepared for the coming week by coming to the market with a sense of context while at the same time being open to ANYTHING. The market decides what actually happens, the only thing we can do is adjust and follow. I like to think of everything within a limited range of scenarios. "If this scenario, then that" or "if this other scenario, then that other outcome". For example, IF the current candle closes as a doji and the high is cleared over the next day, price is likely to squeeze into the next resistance area which happens to be in the 102Ks (see thin rectangle). This information can help you to prepare for bullish setups and confirmations on smaller time frames to capture a portion of the 4K point potential. This is where a confirmation tool like my Trade Scanner Po comes into play. You come to the market with an idea and the tool provides an objective confirmation with defined risk and profit objective. IF the current candle develops into a bearish engulfing instead, that would cancel out the bullish idea and increase the likelihood of price retesting the 90K AREA support zone. A location where long setups should be anticipated UNTIL the level is compromised. Again the market moves first, and then from there we can better anticipate the following movement. At this point there is not much to do but wait for a confirmation one way or the other. The 100K area may also act as a psychological resistance so taking swing trades or positions with longer time horizons carries a lot more risk compared to signals around the low 90ks. How you navigate the market depends heavily on the time horizon you choose. Smaller time horizons have smaller associated risk, but a larger amount of noise and false signals. Larger time frames are less noisy and offer larger movements, but the risk is much greater. It is possible to operate on multiple time frames but requires a decent amount of experience. And while Bitcoin is still generally bullish, that does not mean it will stay that way. It is better to keep an open mind than to get married to an opinion ESPECIALLY if the source of that opinion came from some "expert". For better perspective, keep an eye on the weekly or monthly time frame. If the low of the current monthly candle is compromised, some kind of corrective move is likely to follow, NOT BTC 1.2 million. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29